Covid 19 boosts Western European SVOD
Western Europe is forecast to have 197 million SVOD subscriptions by 2025, doubling from 88 million at end-2019. About 45 million subscribers will be added in 2020 alone, with the Covid lockdown providing a major boost.
SVOD subscriber forecasts by platform (000) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2019 2020 2025 Others 19,354 23,488 30,182 HBO 1,819 1,991 2,653 Apple TV+ 92 542 3,923 Amazon 22,945 27,070 35,437 Disney+ 712 24,429 57,542 Netflix 43,192 54,286 67,697
Netflix will remain the largest pan-regional SVOD platform, with 67.70 million paying subscribers expected by 2025. Netflix will add 24 million subs from 2019.
Disney+ has made a strong and immediate impact, given its brand recognition, low price and impressive content line-up. Disney+ will launch in most Western European countries by mid-2020. Disney+ is forecast to have 57.54 million paying subscribers in Western Europe by 2025.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The Covid 19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have had two major effects on Western European OTT: a surge in SVOD subscriptions and a loss in advertiser confidence, which will result in lower AVOD growth for 2020.”
Murray continued: “Netflix reported impressive first quarter results and the newly- launched Disney+ has enjoyed great success. Crucial for the SVOD platforms will be retaining subscribers after the lockdown is lifted - and to attract new ones.”
Murray warned: “The danger is that subscribers will watch so much of one platform’s library during lockdown that they will unsubscribe if they feel that there is little left for them to watch. This will affect Disney+ less as its younger audience will watch the same content multiple times. Older audiences to the other platforms always want new content, which may be difficult to achieve especially given the production suspension during lockdown.”
Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts
Table of Contents
Published in April 2020, this 190-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report covers movies and TV episodes. The report comes in three parts:
• Outlook: Forecasts for 18 countries in a 41-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2025 for 18 countries by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues for movies and TV episodes. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in an 88-page PDF document.
For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]
Forecasts for the following 122 platforms across 18 countries:
Country SVOD ops SVOD Platforms Austria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Ticket; Maxdome/Joyn; RTL Now Belgium 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Videoland; YeloPlay; Proximus Denmark 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Play Finland 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More France 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; OCS; Salto; MyCanal Germany 11 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Ticket; Maxdome/Joyn; Magenta TV App; Horizon; Giga; Zattoo; RTL TV Now Premium Iceland 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Ireland 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now Italy 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now; TIMVision; Mediaset Infinity Luxembourg 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Malta 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Netherlands 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Videoland Unlimited; NPO Plus; NL Ziet; Ziggo Movies & Series Norway 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Sumo Portugal 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; NOS Play Spain 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Orange Cine; Movistar+ Lite; MiTele Plus; Atresplayer Prem Sweden 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More Switzerland 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Premium Plus; Teleclub Play UK 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now TV; Britbox; ITV Hub+
SAMPLE: Finland OTT TV & video insight
• OTT TV and video revenues reached $232 million in 2019, and will double to $462 million in 2025. AVOD will climb from $34 million in 2019 and $71 million in 2025.
Main assumptions behind the forecasts • SVOD is well established but not as well as the other Nordic countries. • Multiple SVOD subscriptions are becoming common. • Some SVOD users do not pay for the service as they receive it free with their premium channel TV subscription. • SVOD penetration is higher than the Western European average but is below the Nordic average. • Pay TV penetration is high. Source: Digital TV Research
• SVOD revenues are expected to reach $330 million in 2025, double from $163 million in 2019. Gross SVOD subscriptions will increase from 1.38 million in 2019 to 2.88 million in 2025. SVOD penetration remains below the Nordic average – but ahead of the Western European average.
• Netflix launched in Finland in October 2012 along with the other Nordic countries. Take-up has been high. We estimate 999,000 paying subs at end- 2019; rising to 1,196,000 by 2025.
• Netflix is carried by pay TV operator Elisa (which also offers HBO Nordic). Telia has also signed a distribution deal with Netflix. Netflix’s first local drama was Bordertown.
• Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at €5.99/month, but Amazon offers little original or local content. We forecast 105,000 Amazon subs by 2025.
• Disney+ is expected to start in Finland by mid-2020. It is cheaper than Netflix at €6.99/month or €69.99/year. We believe that this will be a successful launch, with 1 million subscribers by 2025.
• Apple TV+ launched in more than 100 countries in November 2019. The ad- free platform will offer original content, with an annual production budget of $2 billion. Subscriptions are only €5.99/month, although a year’s free subscription is given to purchasers of Apple’s top products. We forecast 69,000 paying subscribers by 2025.
• HBO launched an SVOD platform for the Nordic countries in late 2012 in partnership with Parsifal International. HBO Nordic offers both linear channel and on-demand options (5,000 titles) for €10.95/month ($12.30). HBO has a deal with Telia. We forecast 273,000 subscribers by 2025.
• Paramount+ (€7.95/month. 1,400 episodes) began operations in March 2019 in partnership with Telia and Canal Digital.
• The Viaplay SVOD platform is gaining subscribers rapidly. Viaplay (€9.99- 34.99/month – free to some Viasat subscribers) offers 43 linear channels and 1,000 on-demand titles. We forecast 150,000 paying non-sports subs by 2025.
• Viasat and Viaplay were spun off by Sweden’s Modern Times Group into the Nordic Entertainment Group. Viasat Nordic is losing subscribers across the region, but is gaining ARPU.
Viasat Nordic pay TV operations (000) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Denmark 86 84 75 67 61 Finland 36 34 31 28 25 Norway 120 107 91 78 69 Sweden 282 283 259 236 219 Premium satellite TV subs 526 508 456 409 374 DTC subs 510 493 489 Wholesale subs 456 506 544 428 466 469 Annualized ARPU (SEK) 5,254 5,161 5,508 5,500 5,625 Viaplay 937 1,108 1,258 1,568 Source: NENT. Country-by-country estimates by Digital TV Research
• In October 2019, the two satellite TV players, Viasat and Canal Digital, agreed to merge their consumer interests. This will formally take place in 1H20. Together they will have 1.26 million subs across the four Nordic countries.
• Viasat and Canal Digital compete for Scandinavian pay satellite TV subs, together recording 2.8% penetration in Finland at end-2018 (down from 4.1% in 2010). Pay satellite TV subscriber numbers are falling as households opt for the less expensive alternatives on offer.
• Viasat Nordic is losing premium pay satellite TV subscribers across Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland. In March 2019, Modern Times Group split out Viasat and Viaplay by floating the Nordic Entertainment Group (NENT).
• C More Play launched an SVOD platform (€9.95/month – or €29.95/month for sports and both packages together for €34.95) with Svensk Filmindustri and Finland’s free-to-air broadcaster MTV in January 2017.
• C More extended its relationship with FTA broadcaster MTV in February 2017 to incorporate content under the same umbrella. MTV runs an AVOD-supported platform. MTV and C More were owned by Sweden’s Bonnier until being sold to Telia in July 2018.
• C More signed a distribution deal with Starz in October 2015. Pay TV operator DNA, Elisa, Telia and Canal Digital carry C More. We expect 37,000 paying, non-sports C More Play subscribers by 2025.
• Telia had 600,000 cable TV and IPTV (Koti TV) subscribers by end-2019. Telia’s growth is mainly due to fiber network expansion in Helsinki since late 2009. Telia has a distribution deal with C More (€12.95-34.95/month), HBO (€10.95/month) and Paramount+ (€7.95/month).
• In June 2017, TDC announced that Blockbuster would expand from Denmark to Finland, Norway and Sweden. TVOD platform Blockbuster rents (€4.90) and sells (€14.90) 7,000 titles. No monthly subscription service is available.
• Principally a mobile operator (4.07 million subs), Elisa had 513,000 cable TV and IPTV subscribers by end-2019. Elisa carries Viaplay (€9.99/month), C More (€12.95/month) and HBO Nordic (€10.95/month). Offering 170 movies, SVOD platform Elisa Viide costs €11.90/month.
• DNA’s cable operation had 663,000 TV subs at end-2019. Access to Viaplay was added in December 2018 as a standalone platform. C More is also available. Telenor bought a 54% stake in DNA in April 2019 for €1.5 billion. The company had 2.82 million mobile and 542,000 fixed broadband subscribers at end-2019.
• Telenor-owned Canal Digital had 754,000 premium satellite TV subscribers across the region by September 2019, falling since 2011. On the streaming side, Canal Digital provides access to C More (€9.90/month), Viaplay and HBO Nordic (€9.95/month).
Fixed broadband subscribers by platform (000) Jun 16 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 DSL 647 593 504 405 346 FTTB 550 605 677 755 822 FTTH 92 94 106 133 155 Cable 409 412 411 434 458 Other 6 8 12 10 16 Fixed bband subs 1,704 1,712 1,710 1,737 1,797 Resid fixed bb subs 1,477 1,479 1,490 1,529 1,587 Source: Traficom
• In 2009, the government announced plans for a national broadband network, which gives 95% of homes and businesses broadband speeds of up to 100Mbps.
• YLE Areena from the public broadcaster is a free archive, with 3 million monthly viewers. Rival FTA broadcaster Nelonen offers AVOD platform Ruutu, which has 884,000 viewers a month. Providing live sports, Sanoma-owned Ruutu+ costs €9.95/month.
• Discovery Communications offers AVOD platform Dplay. Ad-free Dplay+ costs €4.99/month. Adding Eurosport brings the monthly fee to €8.99. As well as Discovery and Eurosport, Discovery owns local FTA channels 5 and 6.
Finland OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Population (000) Total households (000) TV households (000) Fixed broadband households (000) Smartphone subscribers (000) Tablet subscribers (000)
TV HH/Total HH Fixed broadband HH/Total HH Smartphone subs/Population Tablet subs/Population
OTT TV & video fixed broadband households (000) OTT TV & video HH/Fixed broadband HH OTT TV & video HH/TV HH
OTT TV & video smartphone subs (000) OTT TV & video HH/smartphone subs
OTT TV & video total (000)
Gross SVOD subscriptions (000) SVOD subs/TVHH SVOD subs/Fixed broadband HH SVOD subs/Smartphone users
Net SVOD homes (000) SVOD homes/TVHH SVOD homes/Fixed broadband HH SVOD subscriptions/SVOD homes
TV rental transactions (000) Movie rental transactions (000) Total rental transactions (000) TV download-to-own transactions (000) Movie download-to-own transactions (000) Total download-to-own transactions (000)
Online advertising total (US$ mil.)
Finland OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
AVOD (US$ mil.) Online TV rental revs (US$ mil.) Online movie rental revs (US$ mil.) Online rental revs (US$ mil.) DTO TV revenues (US$ mil.) DTO movie revenues (US$ mil.) DTO video revenues (US$ mil.) SVOD revenues (US$ mil.) OTT TV & video revs ($ mil.)
SVOD subscribers by operator (000) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More Others
Share of SVOD subscribers by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More Others
SVOD revenues by operator (US$ mil.) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More Others
Finland OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Share of SVOD revenues by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More Others
SVOD ARPU by operator ($) Netflix Amazon Prime Video Disney+ Apple TV+ HBO Viaplay C More
AVOD revenues by platform ($ million) YouTube Facebook/Instagram Other social media sites FTA broadcasters Pay TV broadcasters AVOD platforms Other Source: Digital TV Research. Revenues from professionally-made TV shows and movies - so not, for example, sports or UGC.
Finland OTT TV & video outlook
500 OTT revenues by source ($m) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 SVOD 145 163 206 252 330 DTO 18 21 23 26 37 Rental 14 15 17 18 24 AVOD 28 34 37 43 71
Device penetration (000) 6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 Populn Total HH TV HH Fixed bb Smartph Tablet 2018 5,513 2,554 2,498 1,529 4,576 2,611 2019 5,518 2,559 2,497 1,587 4,663 2,736 2020 5,529 2,564 2,497 1,641 4,727 2,806 2021 5,539 2,569 2,497 1,696 4,780 2,865 2025 5,571 2,590 2,497 1,916 4,819 2,975
Finland SVOD outlook
SVOD subscribers by operator (000) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 Others 23 26 25 26 31 C More 24 28 36 39 37 Viaplay 86 107 118 127 150 HBO 156 180 200 216 273 Apple TV+ 0 2 11 22 69 Disney+ 0 0 483 667 1,016 Amazon 27 40 54 67 105 Netflix 888 999 1,074 1,111 1,196
SVOD revenues by operator ($m) 350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 Others 2 2 2 1 3 C More 3 3 4 5 5 Viaplay 11 13 15 17 20 HBO 20 25 28 31 40 Apple TV+ 0 0 1 1 5 Disney+ 0 0 23 54 92 Amazon 2 3 4 5 8 Netflix 107 117 130 138 156
Digital TV Research publication schedule Title Publication Price 2020 Western Europe OTT TV and Video April £1200/€1320/$1440 Forecasts Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1320/$1440 Eastern Europe OTT TV and Video Forecasts April £1200/€1320/$1440 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1320/$1440 Asia Pacific OTT TV and Video Forecasts March £1200/€1320/$1440 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1320/$1440 Latin America OTT TV and Video Forecasts March £1200/€1320/$1440 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1320/$1440 North America OTT TV and Video Forecasts March £600/€660/$720 North America Pay TV Forecasts February £600/€660/$720 SVOD Platform Forecasts February £800/€880/$960 Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1320/$1440 Africa OTT TV and Video Forecasts January £1200/€1320/$1440 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1320/$1440 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV and January £1200/€1320/$1440 Video Forecasts
2019 Pay TV Forecasts Update September £1000/€1200/$1300 SVOD Forecasts Update September £1000/€1200/$1300 OTT TV and Video Databook September £750/€900/$975 SVOD Databook September £750/€900/$975 Pay TV Databook September £750/€900/$975 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £1800/€2160/$2340 Global SVOD Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global AVOD Forecasts June £750/€900/$975
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