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Covid 19 Boosts Western European SVOD

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Covid 19 Boosts Western European SVOD Covid 19 boosts Western European SVOD Western Europe is forecast to have 197 million SVOD subscriptions by 2025, doubling from 88 million at end-2019. About 45 million subscribers will be added in 2020 alone, with the Covid lockdown providing a major boost. SVOD subscriber forecasts by platform (000) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2019 2020 2025 Others 19,354 23,488 30,182 HBO 1,819 1,991 2,653 Apple TV+ 92 542 3,923 Amazon 22,945 27,070 35,437 Disney+ 712 24,429 57,542 Netflix 43,192 54,286 67,697 Netflix will remain the largest pan-regional SVOD platform, with 67.70 million paying subscribers expected by 2025. Netflix will add 24 million subs from 2019. Disney+ has made a strong and immediate impact, given its brand recognition, low price and impressive content line-up. Disney+ will launch in most Western European countries by mid-2020. Disney+ is forecast to have 57.54 million paying subscribers in Western Europe by 2025. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The Covid 19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have had two major effects on Western European OTT: a surge in SVOD subscriptions and a loss in advertiser confidence, which will result in lower AVOD growth for 2020.” Murray continued: “Netflix reported impressive first quarter results and the newly- launched Disney+ has enjoyed great success. Crucial for the SVOD platforms will be retaining subscribers after the lockdown is lifted - and to attract new ones.” Murray warned: “The danger is that subscribers will watch so much of one platform’s library during lockdown that they will unsubscribe if they feel that there is little left for them to watch. This will affect Disney+ less as its younger audience will watch the same content multiple times. Older audiences to the other platforms always want new content, which may be difficult to achieve especially given the production suspension during lockdown.” Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts Table of Contents Published in April 2020, this 190-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report covers movies and TV episodes. The report comes in three parts: • Outlook: Forecasts for 18 countries in a 41-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2025 for 18 countries by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues for movies and TV episodes. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in an 88-page PDF document. For more information, please click here or contact [email protected] Forecasts for the following 122 platforms across 18 countries: Country SVOD ops SVOD Platforms Austria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Ticket; Maxdome/Joyn; RTL Now Belgium 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Videoland; YeloPlay; Proximus Denmark 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Play Finland 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More France 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; OCS; Salto; MyCanal Germany 11 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Ticket; Maxdome/Joyn; Magenta TV App; Horizon; Giga; Zattoo; RTL TV Now Premium Iceland 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Ireland 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now Italy 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now; TIMVision; Mediaset Infinity Luxembourg 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Malta 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Netherlands 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Videoland Unlimited; NPO Plus; NL Ziet; Ziggo Movies & Series Norway 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More; TV2 Sumo Portugal 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; NOS Play Spain 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Orange Cine; Movistar+ Lite; MiTele Plus; Atresplayer Prem Sweden 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Viaplay; C More Switzerland 6 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Premium Plus; Teleclub Play UK 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Sky X/Now TV; Britbox; ITV Hub+ SAMPLE: Finland OTT TV & video insight • OTT TV and video revenues reached $232 million in 2019, and will double to $462 million in 2025. AVOD will climb from $34 million in 2019 and $71 million in 2025. Main assumptions behind the forecasts • SVOD is well established but not as well as the other Nordic countries. • Multiple SVOD subscriptions are becoming common. • Some SVOD users do not pay for the service as they receive it free with their premium channel TV subscription. • SVOD penetration is higher than the Western European average but is below the Nordic average. • Pay TV penetration is high. Source: Digital TV Research • SVOD revenues are expected to reach $330 million in 2025, double from $163 million in 2019. Gross SVOD subscriptions will increase from 1.38 million in 2019 to 2.88 million in 2025. SVOD penetration remains below the Nordic average – but ahead of the Western European average. • Netflix launched in Finland in October 2012 along with the other Nordic countries. Take-up has been high. We estimate 999,000 paying subs at end- 2019; rising to 1,196,000 by 2025. • Netflix is carried by pay TV operator Elisa (which also offers HBO Nordic). Telia has also signed a distribution deal with Netflix. Netflix’s first local drama was Bordertown. • Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at €5.99/month, but Amazon offers little original or local content. We forecast 105,000 Amazon subs by 2025. • Disney+ is expected to start in Finland by mid-2020. It is cheaper than Netflix at €6.99/month or €69.99/year. We believe that this will be a successful launch, with 1 million subscribers by 2025. • Apple TV+ launched in more than 100 countries in November 2019. The ad- free platform will offer original content, with an annual production budget of $2 billion. Subscriptions are only €5.99/month, although a year’s free subscription is given to purchasers of Apple’s top products. We forecast 69,000 paying subscribers by 2025. • HBO launched an SVOD platform for the Nordic countries in late 2012 in partnership with Parsifal International. HBO Nordic offers both linear channel and on-demand options (5,000 titles) for €10.95/month ($12.30). HBO has a deal with Telia. We forecast 273,000 subscribers by 2025. • Paramount+ (€7.95/month. 1,400 episodes) began operations in March 2019 in partnership with Telia and Canal Digital. • The Viaplay SVOD platform is gaining subscribers rapidly. Viaplay (€9.99- 34.99/month – free to some Viasat subscribers) offers 43 linear channels and 1,000 on-demand titles. We forecast 150,000 paying non-sports subs by 2025. • Viasat and Viaplay were spun off by Sweden’s Modern Times Group into the Nordic Entertainment Group. Viasat Nordic is losing subscribers across the region, but is gaining ARPU. Viasat Nordic pay TV operations (000) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Denmark 86 84 75 67 61 Finland 36 34 31 28 25 Norway 120 107 91 78 69 Sweden 282 283 259 236 219 Premium satellite TV subs 526 508 456 409 374 DTC subs 510 493 489 Wholesale subs 456 506 544 428 466 469 Annualized ARPU (SEK) 5,254 5,161 5,508 5,500 5,625 Viaplay 937 1,108 1,258 1,568 Source: NENT. Country-by-country estimates by Digital TV Research • In October 2019, the two satellite TV players, Viasat and Canal Digital, agreed to merge their consumer interests. This will formally take place in 1H20. Together they will have 1.26 million subs across the four Nordic countries. • Viasat and Canal Digital compete for Scandinavian pay satellite TV subs, together recording 2.8% penetration in Finland at end-2018 (down from 4.1% in 2010). Pay satellite TV subscriber numbers are falling as households opt for the less expensive alternatives on offer. • Viasat Nordic is losing premium pay satellite TV subscribers across Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland. In March 2019, Modern Times Group split out Viasat and Viaplay by floating the Nordic Entertainment Group (NENT). • C More Play launched an SVOD platform (€9.95/month – or €29.95/month for sports and both packages together for €34.95) with Svensk Filmindustri and Finland’s free-to-air broadcaster MTV in January 2017. • C More extended its relationship with FTA broadcaster MTV in February 2017 to incorporate content under the same umbrella. MTV runs an AVOD-supported platform. MTV and C More were owned by Sweden’s Bonnier until being sold to Telia in July 2018. • C More signed a distribution deal with Starz in October 2015. Pay TV operator DNA, Elisa, Telia and Canal Digital carry C More. We expect 37,000 paying, non-sports C More Play subscribers by 2025. • Telia had 600,000 cable TV and IPTV (Koti TV) subscribers by end-2019. Telia’s growth is mainly due to fiber network expansion in Helsinki since late 2009. Telia has a distribution deal with C More (€12.95-34.95/month), HBO (€10.95/month) and Paramount+ (€7.95/month). • In June 2017, TDC announced that Blockbuster would expand from Denmark to Finland, Norway and Sweden. TVOD platform Blockbuster rents (€4.90) and sells (€14.90) 7,000 titles. No monthly subscription service is available. • Principally a mobile operator (4.07 million subs), Elisa had 513,000 cable TV and IPTV subscribers by end-2019.
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