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Produced by the BPDA Research Division Produced by the BPDA Research Division: Alvaro Lima – Director Jonathan Lee – Deputy Director Christina Kim – Senior Research Associate Phillip Granberry – Senior Researcher/Demographer Matthew Resseger – Senior Researcher/Economist Kevin Kang – Research Associate Jing Chen – Research Assistant Avanti Krovi — Research Assistant Kelly McGee – Research Manager Interns: Erin Cameron & Ahsim Shaaban The BPDA Research Division strives to understand the current environment of the city to produce quality research and targeted information that will inform and benefit the residents and businesses of Boston. The Division conducts research on Boston’s economy, population, and commercial markets for all departments of the BPDA, the City of Boston, and related organizations. The information provided in this report is the best available at the time of publication. All or partial use of this report must be cited. Our preferred citation is as follows: Boston Planning & Development Agency Research Division, January 2019 More research produced by the Boston Planning & Development Agency can be found on the BPDA Research Website: Research Publications Research requests can be made through the BPDA Research Division’s Research Inquiries. 2 Brian P. Golden, Director . The BPDA Research Division maintains a dataset of projects approved through Article 80B Large Project Review, 80E Small Project Review, 80A Notice of Project Change, 80C Planned Development Area Review, or 80D Institutional Master Plan Review (see Glossary). Details including square footage, residential units, and development cost are recorded at initial approval and again if a project receives an NPC approval. Permit and certificate of occupancy data come from the Inspectional Services Department and allow the Research Division to track project lifecycle from approval through construction and completion. This Report analyzes development trends in five sub-markets (housing, office, hotel, industrial, and institutional) while describing concurrent economic and demographic trends that may influence development. Together, these data depict the recent cycle of real estate development in Boston, from the beginning of Article 80 in 1996 through the development downturn during the 2008-2009 recession to the recent development boom coinciding with the city’s economic recovery. 3 . Article 80: Adopted in 1996 by the BPDA to provide clear guidelines for the development review process, including but not limited to review of a project's impacts on transportation, public realm, the environment, and historic resources. Public input is encouraged throughout a project's review timeline. Institutional Master Plan: Planning and zoning document required by Article 80-D for all colleges, universities, and hospitals with over 150,000 square feet of tax-exempt real estate. IMPs are generally renewed every ten years. Large Project: Required for all projects that involve the addition of an aggregate gross floor area of more than 50,000 square feet. Notice of Project Change (NPC): A document which may be filed by a project proponent with the BPDA if the project scope undergoes changes that are substantial enough to call for additional review and approval. Small Project: Required for projects that involve the addition of an aggregate gross floor area of between 20,000 and 50,000 square feet and/or any project that results in the creation of 15 or more dwelling units. Planned Development Area: An overlay zoning district which may be established under Article 80 where a development that is well-suited to its location cannot be accommodated by the general zoning for the area. For example, a development that involves a large building, a cluster of buildings, or a mix of uses. 3-Year Rule: If a project is approved and then returns to the BPDA for an NPC within three years, the net change in square footage, development cost, and units is recorded. If the NPC returns to the BPDA more than three years since the project was originally approved, the gross square footage, development cost, and units are recorded. Source: http://www.bostonplans.org/about-us/glossary 4 Contents • • • • • 1. Recession from Beginning of American Recovery and March to November Great Recession Record High 103 Reinvestment Act passed; Article 80 Approvals Article 80 adopted; End of Recession Beginning of Pipeline New High of 58 Database entries Article 80 Approvals 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dot-com bubble bursts; NASDAQ falls Federal Reserve begins from peak of 5,000 Quantitative Easing policy Unemployment falls Big Dig officially completed below 4% for first (construction began in 1991) time since Recession Recession 7 $150 10% $140 9% $130 $121.7 8% $120 7% $110 6% $100 5% $90 4% $80 3% $70 2% $60 1% $50 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Recession GCP (Billions of 2017$) Recession Boston Workforce Development Area Massachusetts Boston’s total annual economic activity has increased by $29 billion since 2002 and has grown at an average 2018 July - Jan rate of 2.6% per year since 2009. Average annual unemployment hit a low of 3.7% in 2017, with Boston’s rate remaining below Massachusetts’. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), BPDA Research Division Analysis. 8 Payroll and Non-payroll Jobs Located in Boston 794,038 800,000 700,000 674,188 672,079 600,000 500,000 The number of payroll and non- 400,000 payroll jobs increased 24% to Jobs 794,000 in 2016, from a recent 300,000 low of 639,000 in 2004. 200,000 100,000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), Employment and Wage (ES-202), BPDA Research Analysis. 9 2. 8% 6.9% 7% 6% Rates have stayed below 5% 4% since 2009 and have 4% only recently begun to rise 3.1% from a low of 1.6% in 3% 2016. 2% American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Passed, Federal 1% Reserve cuts interest rates 1.6% Feb 2009 0% 1999 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Recession Interest Rate Source: US Department of Treasury; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, BPDA Research Division Analysis. 11 Since 1996, the price index Since the 1996, index price and 2015 64%, with dips brief in 2009 has increased construction new inputs to for - 2016. 1986 = 100 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 132 1996 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, ProducersPrice Index Series,Industry BPDA Analysis.ResearchDivision 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 219 2014 Recession 2015 2016 216 2017 12 140 120 Crude Oil Natural Gas Plywood Aluminum Iron Ore 100 Per Million Per dry metric Per barrel British Thermal Per sheet Per metric ton Unit ton Units 80 $107 $9.68 $7.54 $3,108 $171 10-year high 60 (2012) (2008) (2007) (2007) (2008) = 100 2010 $52 $2.81 $5.18 $1,912 $64 10-year low 40 (2016) (2012) (2015) (2015) (2015) 20 2017 $61 $3.42 $5.62 $2,274 $83 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Recession Energy Index Iron and Steel Index Timber Index Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Producer Price Index by Commodity for Metals and Metal Products: Iron and Steel, Updated August 9, 2018; The World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink 13 Sheet), Updated June 2018, BPDA Research Division Analysis. $2,060 $2,100 25,000 $2,000 Weekly average wages for Boston $1,868 18,776 20,000 workers in the construction $1,900 industry grew at an average $1,800 annual rate of 0.9% between 13,849 15,000 2001 and 2017, compared to $1,700 0.7% for all industries. 10,000 $1,600 Employment Rising wages and employment $1,500 reflect the high demand for (2017$) wage weekly Average 5,000 construction labor. $1,400 $1,300 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Recession Construction Jobs Average Weekly Wage for Construction Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), ES-202 Wage and Employment data, BPDA Research Division Analysis. 14 Total Square Footage and Projects Approved by Project Type 16 14 12 10 8 6 Square Feet (Millions) Feet Square 4 2 Total projects approved, 6 26 32 39 66 56 50 56 64 61 58 53 58 20 50 49 44 80 66 76 100 74 51 0 including NPCs Recession Large Project NPC Small Project Source: BPDA Pipeline Database (current as of October 1st, 2018), BPDA Research Division Analysis. Number of projects refers to total board actions, counting original approvals and NPCs once each. Square foot totals take the net 15 square footage except for projects outside of the 3-Year rule, where the square footage is counted twice. Industrial Other 2% 8% Retail Hotel 6% Residential 47% Institutional 14% Office 18% Source: BPDA Pipeline Database (current as of October 1st, 2018), BPDA Research Division Analysis. Net square footage taken, disregarding 3-year rule. 16 Millions of Square Feet - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Downtown 35.8 South Boston Waterfront 34.1 Fenway/Back Bay 24.5 Allston/Brighton 17.7 South End 14.9 Dorchester 8.3 Roxbury 8.2 South Boston 7.9 Longwood/Mission Hill 7.9 East Boston 7.0 Jamaica Plain 4.6 Charlestown 4.0 Mattapan 2.5 West Roxbury 2.2 Hyde Park 1.5 Roslindale 1.1 Source BPDA Pipeline Database (current as of October 1st, 2018), BPDA Research Division Analysis.
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