Ambivalent Allies? a Study of South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S
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Ambivalent Allies? A Study of South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S. ERIC V. LARSON, NORMAN D. LEVIN, SEONHAE BAIK, BOGDAN SAVYCH TR-141-SRF March 2004 Supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation Approved for public release; distribution unlimited This research in the public interest was supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation and by the RAND Corporation, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND's donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 0-8330-3584-3 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] iii Preface This is the final report of a RAND Corporation study of South Korean attitudes toward the United States that aimed to assess three key research questions: (1) What are the trends in South Koreans’ attitudes toward the United States and is the conventional wisdom that they recently have deteriorated correct? (2) What are the sources of South Korean attitudes toward the United States, and what are their trends over time? (3) What are the implications of these trends for U.S. policy toward Korea and larger security interests? The study constituted an exhaustive effort to compile and analyze public opinion data on South Korean attitudes toward the United States, and a historical analysis of selected periods in U.S.-South Korean relations during the past decade which also sought to identify the sources of anti-U.S. attitudes. Two working papers provide additional details on the data and analysis. They are Seonhae Baik and Eric Larson, “South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S.: Public Opinion Data,” forthcoming. Bogdan Savych and Eric Larson, “South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S.: Statistical Modeling Results,” forthcoming. Interested readers can request these papers via e-mail from Eric Larson at [email protected]. The study is likely to be of greatest interest to policymakers and scholars concerned with U.S.-South Korean relations and to those responsible for the development of public diplomacy programs. The research was sponsored through a generous grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation and RAND corporate funds, and was conducted in RAND’s Center for Asia Pacific Policy (CAPP). Center for Asia Pacific Policy (CAPP) This research project was conducted under the auspices of the RAND Center for Asia-Pacific Policy (CAPP), which aims to improve public policy by providing iv decision makers and the public with rigorous, objective research on critical policy issues affecting Asia and U.S.-Asia relations. CAPP is part of RAND's National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for a broad range of clients including the U.S. Department of Defense, the intelligence community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. This technical report also results from RAND's continuing program of self- sponsored independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND's contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. For more information on RAND's Center for Asia Pacific Policy, contact the Director, Nina Hachigian. She can be reached by e-mail at [email protected]; by phone at 310-393-0411, extension 6030; or by mail at RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, California 90407-2138. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. v The RAND Corporation Quality Assurance Process Peer review is an integral part of all RAND research projects. Prior to publication, this document, as with all documents in the RAND technical report series, was subject to a quality assurance process to ensure that the research meets several standards, including the following: The problem is well formulated; the research approach is well designed and well executed; the data and assumptions are sound; the findings are useful and advance knowledge; the implications and recommendations follow logically from the findings and are explained thoroughly; the documentation is accurate, understandable, cogent, and temperate in tone; the research demonstrates understanding of related previous studies; and the research is relevant, objective, independent, and balanced. Peer review is conducted by research professionals who were not members of the project team. RAND routinely reviews and refines its quality assurance process and also conducts periodic external and internal reviews of the quality of its body of work. For additional details regarding the RAND quality assurance process, visit http://www.rand.org/standards/. vii Contents Preface ...................................................................................................iii Figures ...................................................................................................ix Tables ...................................................................................................xi Summary ..............................................................................................xiii Acknowledgments................................................................................. xix Acronyms. ............................................................................................ xxi 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................1 Approach..........................................................................................3 Organization of This Report...............................................................5 2. THE PAST AS PROLOGUE................................................................7 Korea’s Historic Experience ...............................................................7 Transition to the 1990s ..................................................................... 12 The Nuclear Crisis (1992–1996)......................................................... 14 The Inter-Korean Summit (2000–2002) .............................................. 27 History, the 1990s, and Factors Driving Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S...................................................................................... 38 3. KEY TRENDS IN SOUTH KOREAN ATTITUDES TOWARD THE UNITED STATES .................................................................... 42 Attitudes Toward the United States.................................................. 42 Attitudes Regarding U.S.-South Korean Relations.............................. 48 Attitudes Regarding Americans ....................................................... 50 Attitudes Regarding the Alliance and the U.S. Military Presence ........ 51 How Do South Koreans’ Attitudes Toward the U.S. Compare With Those Toward Other Nations?.................................................... 59 Chapter Conclusions ....................................................................... 64 4. THE SOURCES OF SOUTH KOREAN ATTITUDES TOWARD THE U.S.......................................................................................... 66 Many Views of the U.S., and Where the Problems Lie ........................ 66 The Dynamics of Past Downturns in Favorable Sentiment.................. 73 A Model of South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S. ......................... 77 Predictions of the Model .................................................................. 88 Individual-Level Lenses................................................................... 90 Societal Influences..........................................................................109 Chapter Conclusions ......................................................................118 viii 5. IMPLICATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS, CONCLUSIONS.............120 Implications for the U.S...................................................................120 Recommendations..........................................................................122 Conclusions ...................................................................................123 Bibliography .........................................................................................125 ix Figures 2.1 A Model of Influences on South Korean Attitudes Toward the U.S. ...................................................................................... 39 3.1 Percentage Mentioning U.S. as Most Liked Country...................... 43 3.2 Percentage Mentioning U.S. as Most Disliked Country.................. 44 3.3 Trends in Attitudes Toward the U.S., 1988–2003 ..........................