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Area Briefs Nov 2020

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Area Briefs Nov 2020 AREA BRIEFS NOV 2020 An Abridgement of Latest Strategic Developments 16-3O NOVEMBER 2020 Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad About the Area Briefs SSII's Area Briefs are orderly & structured fortnight updates on international politics and strategic issues. Précis notes, divided under various headers, aims at keeping tabs on nearly all evolving issues related to traditional and non- traditional security. The rundown on events allows decision/ policy makers, advisors, researchers and students to stay cognizant of international & regional happenings, and helps in chalking out policies based on informed analysis. About SSII SSII is an independent think tank conducting in-depth research and analysis on issues related to foreign and defence policy. The purpose behind the creation of the SSII was to establish a dedicated academic and research institution for conducting research and trainings on important issues related to Pakistan’s security. SSII aim to put knowledge to practice by providing an alternate narrative in critical areas of Strategic Studies, especially Arms Control and Disarmament. CONTENTS … 2 Americas……………………………………………………………………​ 7 Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………​ China and East Asia…………………………………………………………. 13 17 Europe……………………………………………………...…………………​ Global Terrorism…………………………………………………………… 24 Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………… 26 .... 35 South Asia (I)………………………………………………………………​ South Asia (II)……………………………………………………………….. 44 United Nations……………………………………………………………….. 54 Area Briefs: 16-30 November 2020 AMERICAS International ● On November 19, the US Department of State issued new guidelines on labelling goods manufactured in Jewish settlements in the West Bank as “Made in Israel”. A statement issued by the State Department, and signed by Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, noted: “Today, the Department of State is initiating new guidelines to ensure that country of origin markings for Israeli and Palestinian goods are consistent with our reality-based foreign policy approach. All producers within areas where Israel exercises the relevant authorities most notably Area C under the Oslo Accords will be required to mark goods as ‘Product of Israel’ or ‘Made in Israel’ when exporting to the US”. The State Department noted that producers in “Area C” operate within the economic and administrative framework of Israel and that their goods should be treated accordingly. The Department also stated that the update would eliminate confusion by recognising that producers in other parts of the West Bank are, for all practical purposes, administratively distinct and that their goods should be marked accordingly. The new US policy explained that “goods in areas of the West Bank where the Palestinian Authority maintains relevant authorities shall be marked as ‘products of West Bank’ and goods produced in Gaza will be marked as ‘products of Gaza’”. The statement noted that, under the new approach, the US will no longer accept ‘West Bank/Gaza’ or similar markings, in recognition that Gaza and the West Bank are politically and administratively separate and should be treated accordingly. ● On November 17, the President’s newly appointed acting Defence Secretary, Christopher Miller, announced that the US Department of Defence has been ordered to decrease the number of US troops stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq by January 15, 2020. Miller stated: “I am formally announcing that we will implement President Trump’s orders to continue our repositioning of forces from Afghanistan and Iraq”. He asserted that Trump’s decision “is based on continuous engagement with his national security Cabinet for the past several months”. Miller added that the decision was taken following “discussions with him and his colleagues across the US Government”. National Security Adviser, Robert O’Brien, told reporters at the White House that the Trump Administration has kept its promise of bringing US troops back home. He stated: “Four years ago, President Trump ran on a promise to put a stop to America’s endless wars. President Trump is keeping that promise to the American people”. 2 According to media reports, the Department of Defence has been ordered to cut the number of troops in Afghanistan from 4,500 to 2,500 and the number of forces in Iraq from 3,000 to 2,500. ● On November 16, an unnamed US official revealed to The New York Times (NYT) that ​ ​ ​ ​ with two months left in office, President Donald Trump asked for options vis-à-vis attacking Iran’s main nuclear site. However, he ultimately decided against taking the step. According to the official, Trump made the request during an Oval Office meeting on November 12, 2020, with his top national security aides, including Vice President, Mike Pence, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, new acting Defence Secretary, Christopher Miller, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley. The NYT reported that the advisers persuaded Trump not to go ahead with a strike owing to the risk of sparking a broader conflict. Trump has spent all four years of his Presidency engaging in an aggressive policy against Iran: withdrawing, in 2018, from the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama; and imposing economic sanctions against a wide variety of Iranian targets. Trump’s request for options came a day after a UN watchdog report revealed that in a fresh breach of its 2015 nuclear deal with major powers, Iran had finished moving a first cascade of advanced centrifuges from an above-ground plant at its main uranium enrichment site to an underground one. Domestic ● On November 29, during his first TV interview after the US Presidential Elections on November 3, 2020, US President Donald Trump vowed to continue his fight to overturn the election result that reflected Joe Biden’s victory. While criticising the elections as “rigged”, Trump stated that he would leave the White House if Joe Biden is officially confirmed the winner of the US Election. Without providing any evidence, he stated: “this election was a fraud”. He compared the US voting infrastructure to that of “a third-world country”. President Trump further vowed to put “125 percent” of his energy into finding a path to winning another four years. Meanwhile, US President-Elect, Joe Biden, announced an all-female senior White House communications team in what his office called a first in the country’s history. Biden has sought to move swiftly to assemble his team, despite President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede his loss in the election and his baseless claims of voter fraud. Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results have been met with a series of court defeats dismissing his allegations. In a related development, on November 29, 2020, the recount of presidential ballots in Wisconsin’s two largest counties was finalised, confirming that US 3 Democratic President-elect, Joe Biden, defeated President Donald Trump in the key swing state by more than 20,000 votes. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court dismissed another legal challenge to the election by supporters of President Donald Trump. A Republican lawsuit sought to invalidate mail-in ballots in the battleground state or to throw out all votes and allow the state’s legislature to decide the winner. The Court dismissed both claims in a unanimous decision, calling the second one an “extraordinary proposition that the court disenfranchise all 6.9 million Pennsylvanians who voted in the general election”. The lawsuit argued that a Pennsylvania law from 2019, allowing universal mail-in voting, was unconstitutional. The judges argued that the November 21, 2020 challenge to the law was filed too late, coming more than a year after the law was enacted and with the election results “becoming seemingly apparent”. Pennsylvania officially certified Biden’s victory on November 24, 2020. ● On November 25, President Donald Trump pardoned his former National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn, who had twice pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI during the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential Election. Flynn served as Trump’s first National Security Adviser, but the President fired him after only 24 days for lying to Vice President, Mike Pence, as controversy broke over Flynn’s contacts with then Russian Ambassador, Sergei Kislyak. Flynn was one of several former Trump aides to plead guilty, or be convicted during the trial. The trial followed former Special Counsel, Robert Mueller’s investigation into Moscow’s interference in the 2016 US Election to boost Trump’s candidacy. However, Russia denied the allegations. After pleading guilty, Flynn sought to withdraw the plea, arguing that prosecutors violated his rights and duped him into a plea agreement. His sentencing has been deferred several times. President Trump’s move was the highest profile pardon he granted since he took office. Among others, Trump has pardoned army personnel accused of war crimes in Afghanistan and Joe Arpaio, a former Arizona Sheriff and hardliner against illegal immigration. ● On November 23, the Federal Government recognised President-elect, Joe Biden, as the apparent winner of the November 3, 2020 Election, formally initiating the transition of power. According to a letter from Administrator Emily Murphy, the General Services Administration has informed President-elect Joe Biden that the Trump Administration is ready to begin the formal transition process. The letter is the first step the Administration has taken to acknowledge President Donald Trump’s defeat. Murphy, a Trump appointee, had faced bipartisan criticism for failing to begin the transition process sooner, preventing Biden’s team from working with career agency officials on plans for his Administration. Murphy stated that she had not been 4 pressured by the White House to delay the formal transition and did not make a decision “out of fear or favouritism”. The letter marks Murphy’s formal declaration of Biden’s victory, a normally perfunctory process known as ‘ascertainment’. The move will allow the transition to officially commence, permitting current Administration agency officials to coordinate with the incoming Biden team, and providing government funding for the transition.
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