AREA BRIEFS

NOV 2020

An Abridgement of Latest Strategic Developments

16-3O NOVEMBER 2020

Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad

About the Area Briefs

SSII's Area Briefs are orderly & structured fortnight updates on international politics and strategic issues. Précis notes, divided under various headers, aims at keeping tabs on nearly all evolving issues related to traditional and non- traditional security. The rundown on events allows decision/ policy makers, advisors, researchers and students to stay cognizant of international & regional happenings, and helps in chalking out policies based on informed analysis.

About SSII

SSII is an independent think tank conducting in-depth research and analysis on issues related to foreign and defence policy. The purpose behind the creation of the SSII

was to establish a dedicated academic and research institution for conducting research and trainings on important issues related to Pakistan’s security. SSII aim to put knowledge to practice by providing an alternate narrative in critical areas of Strategic Studies, especially

Arms Control and Disarmament.

CONTENTS

… 2 Americas……………………………………………………………………​ 7 Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………​ China and East Asia…………………………………………………………. 13 17 Europe……………………………………………………...…………………​ Global Terrorism…………………………………………………………… 24 Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………… 26 .... 35 South Asia (I)………………………………………………………………​ South Asia (II)……………………………………………………………….. 44 United Nations……………………………………………………………….. 54

Area Briefs: 16-30 November 2020

AMERICAS

International ● On November 19, the US Department of State issued new guidelines on labelling goods manufactured in Jewish settlements in the West Bank as “Made in Israel”. A statement issued by the State Department, and signed by Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, noted: “Today, the Department of State is initiating new guidelines to ensure that country of origin markings for Israeli and Palestinian goods are consistent with our reality-based foreign policy approach. All producers within areas where Israel exercises the relevant authorities most notably Area C under the Oslo Accords will be required to mark goods as ‘Product of Israel’ or ‘Made in Israel’ when exporting to the US”. The State Department noted that producers in “Area C” operate within the economic and administrative framework of Israel and that their goods should be treated accordingly. The Department also stated that the update would eliminate confusion by recognising that producers in other parts of the West Bank are, for all practical purposes, administratively distinct and that their goods should be marked accordingly. The new US policy explained that “goods in areas of the West Bank where the Palestinian Authority maintains relevant authorities shall be marked as ‘products of West Bank’ and goods produced in Gaza will be marked as ‘products of Gaza’”. The statement noted that, under the new approach, the US will no longer accept ‘West Bank/Gaza’ or similar markings, in recognition that Gaza and the West Bank are politically and administratively separate and should be treated accordingly. ● On November 17, the President’s newly appointed acting Defence Secretary, Christopher Miller, announced that the US Department of Defence has been ordered to decrease the number of US troops stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq by January 15, 2020. Miller stated: “I am formally announcing that we will implement President Trump’s orders to continue our repositioning of forces from Afghanistan and Iraq”. He asserted that Trump’s decision “is based on continuous engagement with his national security Cabinet for the past several months”. Miller added that the decision was taken following “discussions with him and his colleagues across the US Government”. National Security Adviser, Robert O’Brien, told reporters at the White House that the Trump Administration has kept its promise of bringing US troops back home. He stated: “Four years ago, President Trump ran on a promise to put a stop to America’s endless wars. President Trump is keeping that promise to the American people”.

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According to media reports, the Department of Defence has been ordered to cut the number of troops in Afghanistan from 4,500 to 2,500 and the number of forces in Iraq from 3,000 to 2,500. ● On November 16, an unnamed US official revealed to The New York Times (NYT) that ​ ​ ​ ​ with two months left in office, President Donald Trump asked for options vis-à-vis attacking Iran’s main nuclear site. However, he ultimately decided against taking the step. According to the official, Trump made the request during an Oval Office meeting on November 12, 2020, with his top national security aides, including Vice President, Mike Pence, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, new acting Defence Secretary, Christopher Miller, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley. The NYT reported that the advisers persuaded Trump not to go ahead with a strike owing to the risk of sparking a broader conflict. Trump has spent all four years of his Presidency engaging in an aggressive policy against Iran: withdrawing, in 2018, from the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama; and imposing economic sanctions against a wide variety of Iranian targets. Trump’s request for options came a day after a UN watchdog report revealed that in a fresh breach of its 2015 nuclear deal with major powers, Iran had finished moving a first cascade of advanced centrifuges from an above-ground plant at its main uranium enrichment site to an underground one.

Domestic ● On November 29, during his first TV interview after the US Presidential Elections on November 3, 2020, US President Donald Trump vowed to continue his fight to overturn the election result that reflected Joe Biden’s victory. While criticising the elections as “rigged”, Trump stated that he would leave the White House if Joe Biden is officially confirmed the winner of the US Election. Without providing any evidence, he stated: “this election was a fraud”. He compared the US voting infrastructure to that of “a third-world country”. President Trump further vowed to put “125 percent” of his energy into finding a path to winning another four years. Meanwhile, US President-Elect, Joe Biden, announced an all-female senior White House communications team in what his office called a first in the country’s history. Biden has sought to move swiftly to assemble his team, despite President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede his loss in the election and his baseless claims of voter fraud. Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results have been met with a series of court defeats dismissing his allegations. In a related development, on November 29, 2020, the recount of presidential ballots in Wisconsin’s two largest counties was finalised, confirming that US

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Democratic President-elect, Joe Biden, defeated President Donald Trump in the key swing state by more than 20,000 votes. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court dismissed another legal challenge to the election by supporters of President Donald Trump. A Republican lawsuit sought to invalidate mail-in ballots in the battleground state or to throw out all votes and allow the state’s legislature to decide the winner. The Court dismissed both claims in a unanimous decision, calling the second one an “extraordinary proposition that the court disenfranchise all 6.9 million Pennsylvanians who voted in the general election”. The lawsuit argued that a Pennsylvania law from 2019, allowing universal mail-in voting, was unconstitutional. The judges argued that the November 21, 2020 challenge to the law was filed too late, coming more than a year after the law was enacted and with the election results “becoming seemingly apparent”. Pennsylvania officially certified Biden’s victory on November 24, 2020. ● On November 25, President Donald Trump pardoned his former National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn, who had twice pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI during the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential Election. Flynn served as Trump’s first National Security Adviser, but the President fired him after only 24 days for lying to Vice President, Mike Pence, as controversy broke over Flynn’s contacts with then Russian Ambassador, Sergei Kislyak. Flynn was one of several former Trump aides to plead guilty, or be convicted during the trial. The trial followed former Special Counsel, Robert Mueller’s investigation into Moscow’s interference in the 2016 US Election to boost Trump’s candidacy. However, Russia denied the allegations. After pleading guilty, Flynn sought to withdraw the plea, arguing that prosecutors violated his rights and duped him into a plea agreement. His sentencing has been deferred several times. President Trump’s move was the highest profile pardon he granted since he took office. Among others, Trump has pardoned army personnel accused of war crimes in Afghanistan and Joe Arpaio, a former Arizona Sheriff and hardliner against illegal immigration. ● On November 23, the Federal Government recognised President-elect, Joe Biden, as the apparent winner of the November 3, 2020 Election, formally initiating the transition of power. According to a letter from Administrator Emily Murphy, the General Services Administration has informed President-elect Joe Biden that the Trump Administration is ready to begin the formal transition process. The letter is the first step the Administration has taken to acknowledge President Donald Trump’s defeat. Murphy, a Trump appointee, had faced bipartisan criticism for failing to begin the transition process sooner, preventing Biden’s team from working with career agency officials on plans for his Administration. Murphy stated that she had not been

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pressured by the White House to delay the formal transition and did not make a decision “out of fear or favouritism”. The letter marks Murphy’s formal declaration of Biden’s victory, a normally perfunctory process known as ‘ascertainment’. The move will allow the transition to officially commence, permitting current Administration agency officials to coordinate with the incoming Biden team, and providing government funding for the transition. The formal letter from Murphy appeared after Michigan certified Biden’s victory in the battleground state, and a federal judge in Pennsylvania dismissed a Trump campaign lawsuit seeking to prevent certification in that state. According to Yohannes Abraham, Executive Director of the Biden transition, “the decision is a needed step to begin tackling the challenges facing our nation, including getting the pandemic under control and our economy back on track”. ● On November 23, US President-elect Joe Biden named Antony Blinken for the post of Secretary of State. He also announced other cabinet nominations, including for intelligence and climate. As Trump continued to make flailing attempts at overturning the results of the election, Biden’s rollout of cabinet names was his biggest step yet, signalling that he is ready to take over on January 20, 2021. Biden named Avril Haines as the first female Director of National Intelligence, and the first Latino, Alejandro Mayorkas, as head of the Department of Homeland Security, whose policing of tough immigration restrictions under Trump was a frequent source of controversy. Biden also named former Secretary of State, John Kerry, as a new special envoy on climate issues. Meanwhile, in a further message of US reengagement with the international community, Biden named career diplomat, Linda Thomas Greenfield for the post of UN Ambassador. Jake Sullivan, who advised Biden while he was Vice President under Barack Obama, was named National Security Advisor. These selections reflect an emphasis on professionals whom Biden already knows well, in contrast to the Trump White House, where officials were often picked without having the requisite traditional background for the job ● On November 18, President Donald Trump fired the Head of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Chris Krebs, in a message on Twitter. Trump accused him of making a “highly inaccurate” statement affirming that the Presidential Election was secure and rejecting claims of fraud. Since election day, on November 3, 2020, Trump has made baseless allegations that the election was “rigged” and has refused to concede defeat to President-elect, Joe Biden. His campaign has filed a number of lawsuits in battleground States, although election officials in both parties have noted that there is no evidence of serious irregularities. Krebs’ work in protecting the election from hackers and combating disinformation on the vote won praise from lawmakers of both parties, as well as state and election officials around the country. However, he drew criticism

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from Trump and his allies, who were angered over his refusal to support allegations of election meddling. Dozens of election security experts also released a letter stating that claims of major hacks were unsubstantiated and absurd. Kerbs angered the White House over a website run by CISA called “Rumour Control”, which debunked misinformation about the election. Matthew Travis, Krebs’ Deputy and the number two at the Agency, also resigned from his post. CISA Executive Director, Brandon Wales, is expected to take over from Krebs as the acting head of the agency. ● On November 17, US President-elect, Joe Biden, announced that he has appointed nine close campaign aides to key White House positions. While making the announcement, Biden stated: “America faces great challenges, and they bring diverse perspectives and a shared commitment to tackling these challenges and emerging on the other side a stronger, more united nation”. The new appointees include his 2020 Campaign Manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, who has been named Deputy Chief of Staff. He will serve under White House Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, who was appointed by Biden last week. Campaign co-chair, Cedric Richmond, a House Democrat from Louisiana, was named Senior Advisor to the President. Biden also named Mike Donilon, a chief strategist for his campaign and a veteran Democratic tactician, to serve as Senior Advisor to the President. Other appointments include the Chief of Staff and Senior Advisor to incoming First Lady, Jill Biden, a counsel to the President and a Director of Oval Office Operations.

---Muhammad Shoaib

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ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

● On November 30, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres renewed his call for the total elimination of chemical weapons from the world.

In his message commemorating the Day of Remembrance for all Victims of Chemical Warfare, Antonio Guterres reiterated that the use of chemical weapons anywhere, by anyone, under any circumstances, was “intolerable and a serious violation of international law”. While noting that there was no justification for the use of chemical weapons, Guterres emphasised: “It is imperative that those who use, or have used, chemical weapons are identified and held accountable. That is the only way to meet our moral responsibility to the victims of chemical warfare”. The UN Secretary-General urged all UN Member States to renew their commitments under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and their support to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), in order to counter impunity for the use of chemical weapons.

The Day of Remembrance for all Victims of Chemical Warfare is observed to pay tribute to the victims of chemical weapons, to assess progress in preventing any future use of these weapons, and to renew determination to eliminate these weapons from the world.

● On November 29, Iran’s Parliament called for restricting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities, as a proportionate response to assassination of the Iranian Nuclear Physicist, Mohsen Fahrizade, Head of the Research and Innovation Organisation of Iran’s Defence Ministry.

In a statement signed by all members of the Iranian Parliament, the lawmakers noted “the hand of the murderous Zionist regime” was clearly visible in the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. The statement read: “The experiences of terror and sabotage of the US, Israel and their other allies in the country in recent years, which have unfortunately gone largely without proportionate response, have shown how wrong and dangerous this way of thinking is”. While calling for an immediate response to foreign acts of aggression, the lawmakers urged the Government of Iran to end the voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol for verification of nuclear safeguards, and halt inspections by the IAEA. The Additional Protocol includes voluntary measures that enhance the IAEA’s ability to verify the peaceful use of all nuclear materials in a country.

Though the statement signed by the Iranian lawmakers does not create legal obligations for Iran ​ ​ to fulfil the demands, the members of the Iranian Parliament are finalising a bill, namely the Strategic Act to Revoke Sanctions, to create obligations in this regard. This bill also directs the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran to produce at least 120 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium

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annually; develop the Fordow nuclear facility; and increase the number of advanced centrifuges. According to Iranian lawmakers, the bill aims at bringing the states that signed Iran’s Nuclear Agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), back into full compliance with the Agreement and ensure Iran receives the economic benefits promised to it under the JCPOA. The bill is still under review in the Parliament.

According to the Iranian Ministry of Defence, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in a terrorist attack in Damavand, near Tehran, on November 27, 2020. In response, on November 28, 2020, Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani, accused Israel of assassinating Fakhrizadeh. Rouhani stated: “Once again, the evil hands of global arrogance were stained with the blood of the mercenary usurper Zionist regime”. Meanwhile, on November 28, 2020, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promised retaliation for Fakhrizadeh’s assassination and noted that Iran would enhance its nuclear programme.

● On November 28, the US imposed sanctions on Russian and Chinese companies for supporting Iran’s missile programme.

US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, noted that four firms, accused of “transferring sensitive technology and items to Iran’s missile programme”, will be subject to restrictions on US Government aid and on their exports for two years. The four companies include two Chinese-based companies, Chengdu Best New Materials and Zibo Elim Trade, as well as Russia-based Nilco Group and the Joint Stock Company, Elecon. Pompeo stated: “We will continue to work to impede Iran’s missile development efforts and use our sanctions authorities to spotlight the foreign suppliers, such as these entities in the People’s Republic of China and Russia, that provide missile-related materials and technology to Iran”.

● On November 26, Russia successfully test-fired its Tsirkon hypersonic missile from the White Sea against a target in the Barents Sea.

● On November 26, Russia successfully test-launched a new missile interceptor for its missile defence system.

Russia’s Defence Ministry announced: “The Project 22350 lead frigate Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov carried out the test-launch of a Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile from the White Sea against a complex target position in the Barents Sea”. The Ministry noted that Russia carried out the test as part of its trials of new weapons. During the test, the missile hit its target at a 450 kilometres distance, flying at eight times the speed of sound, Mach 8, at an altitude of 28 kilometres. According to the Russian Defence Ministry, the flight speed of the Tsirkon missile could be increased to Mach 9 and its striking range capability could exceed 1,000 kilometres. Russian President, Vladimir Putin, noted that Russia could consider deploying

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the Tsirkon missile on serial-produced surface ships and submarines. Putin observed that the Tsirkon missile was capable of striking both naval and ground targets.

In a related development, on November 26, 2020, Russia test-fired a new interceptor missile for its missile defence system. Russia’s Defence Ministry stated: “An operational crew of the air and missile defence troops of the Russian aerospace forces successfully test launched a new missile of the Russian missile defence system at the Sary-Shagan firing range in Kazakhstan”. Andrei Demin, Commander of the 1st Air and Missile Defence Army of the Russian Aerospace Forces, noted that the new interceptor missile reliably confirmed its characteristics in a series of tests. Russia conducted an earlier test of the missile in October 2020. However, the Russian Ministry of Defence did not provide further operational details regarding the missile, nor did it indicate for which Russian missile defence system the new missile would operate.

● On November 24, India successfully test-fired its surface-to-surface supersonic cruise missile, BrahMos, as part of a series of planned trials of the weapon.

In its statements, the Indian Army disclosed: “The land attack version of BrahMos with capability of cruising at 2.8 Mach speed is the cutting edge of the Indian Army since 2007. The present Block III version of the missile has successfully executed four operational launches in the past. With the upgraded capability the missile can hit targets at a range of up to 400 kilometres with precision”. The Indian Army carried out the test of the surface-to-surface 290-kilometre range Brahmos missile from the Car Nicobar Islands against a target 200 kilometres away in the Bay of Bengal. India has extended the range of the new land-attack version of the missile to 400 kilometres from the original 290 kilometres. However, the missile’s speed is maintained at 2.8 Mach, almost three times the speed of sound.

● On November 24, Taiwan indicated that it has commenced work on developing its first of eight diesel-electric attack submarines (SSK), aimed at strengthening its coastal defences.

At an inauguration ceremony marking the start of construction of a new submarine fleet in the southern port city of Kaohsiung, the President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, vowed to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty with the construction of a new fleet of domestically-developed eight submarines. Tsai termed the submarine modernisation programme a “historic milestone” for Taiwan’s defensive capabilities. According to the officials, the first submarine is scheduled for completion in the third quarter of 2024, with sea trials and commissioning scheduled for 2025. This programme is being assisted by the US: the participation of US manufacturers was approved in 2018. Taiwan’s local Naval shipbuilder, known as the China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSBC), is managing the submarine modernisation programme. The CSBC is Taiwan’s largest shipbuilder and is partly owned by the State. The new submarine will replace Taiwan’s fleet of two World War II-era vessels and two Dutch-made submarines built in the 1980s.

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● On November 22, US President Donald Trump’ s Administration formally withdrew the US from the Open Skies Treaty, after serving the obligatory six-months’ notice issued in May 2020.

US State Department Deputy Spokesperson, Cale Brown, stated: “On May 22, 2020, the United States exercised its right pursuant to paragraph 2 of Article XV of the Treaty on Open Skies by providing notice to the Treaty Depositaries and to all States Parties of its decision to withdraw from the Treaty, effective six months from the notification date”. Brown noted that the US’ withdrawal took effect on November 22, 2020, and that the country was now no longer a State Party to the Treaty on Open Skies. While issuing the withdrawal notification on May 21, 2020, the US accused Russia of violating the Treaty. Trump stated: “Russia did not adhere to the Treaty”. However, Russia continues to reject the US’ allegations. In May 2020, nearly 10 EU countries also expressed regret at the US’ announcement to withdraw from the Treaty and vowed to uphold the pact.

The Open Skies Treaty, which entered into force in 2002, allows States Parties to conduct reconnaissance flights over one another’s territory and collect data on military activities. There are 34 States Parties to the Treaty while a 35th State, i.e. Kyrgyzstan, has signed but not ratified the Treaty. All the information collected from flights is then made available to any of the 34 States Parties.

In response to the US’ withdrawal, Russia, on November 23, 2020, vowed to issue a tough response if States Parties to the Open Skies Treaty share data with the US. Konstantin Gavrilov, Russia’s Chief Negotiator at the Vienna talks on Military Security and Arms Control, stated: “We learnt not long ago that Washington is indulging in behind-the-scenes games and demands its allies sign documents binding them to share materials of observation flights over Russia with the United States. The US demands the Europeans bar Russia from making observation flights over US military facilities in Europe. It is a blatant violation of the treaty. If the rest of the parties to the treaty go on a leash of the United States, we won’t hesitate to take tough response measures”. Gavrilor asserted that States Parties to the Treaty should give guarantees that aerial survey data from their observation flights are classified and are not shared with third parties.

● On November 19, Hungary agreed to procure National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) air defence systems, jointly developed by the US arms manufacturer, Raytheon Technologies, and Norwegian defence company, Kongsberg.

Hungary’s Commissioner for Defence Developments noted that Hungary would take delivery of the air defence systems in the year 2023. The Commissioner stated: “By selecting the NASAMS ​ ​ systems, which also protect the US capital and are in widespread use in NATO, we have opted for a solution providing the best fit with alliance requirements”. According to the statement, new missile systems will replace the outdated Soviet-designed Kub system that has been in operation

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for over four decades. Hungary signed a declaration of intent to buy air defence missiles from Raytheon, worth $1 billion, in August 2020. The NASAMS systems are short to medium-range ground-based air defence systems, capable of intercepting aircrafts, unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles.

● On November 18, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, briefed the IAEA Board of Governors (BOG) on Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programmes.

Rafael Grossi noted that he had issued, on November 17, 2020, his latest report on the “Verification and Monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231”, covering the IAEA’s activities in the last few months in verifying and monitoring Iran’s implementation of its nuclear-related commitments under Iran’s July 2015 Nuclear Agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Grossi noted that the IAEA inspectors visited two locations in Iran, not disclosed to the Agency earlier, and conducted an additional nuclear material inventory verification at a declared facility in Iran. He observed that Iran still needs to explain the presence of uranium particles at these two locations to allay any possible concerns about the correctness and completeness of its safeguards declarations. Earlier, on August 26, 2020, the IAEA and Iran agreed to further reinforce their cooperation to facilitate the full implementation of Iran’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) and the Additional Protocol (AP), provisionally applied by Iran since January 16, 2016. Under the Agreement, Iran voluntarily provided “the IAEA with access to the two locations specified by the IAEA in a resolution adopted on June 19, 2020”. The resolution called on Iran to provide the IAEA inspectors access, for over four months, to two locations specified by the IAEA, under the Additional Protocol, where the country was thought to have stored or used undeclared nuclear material.

In the context of uranium enrichment activities in Iran, Grossi noted that Iran moved nearly 174 centrifuges into a new area of the Natanz nuclear site and began operating these centrifuges. He asserted that the use of these centrifuges was in violation of the JCPOA. However, he observed that these centrifuges would not lead to a “greater overall output of enriched uranium in Iran”. He clarified that Iran’s overall uranium-enriching capabilities have not increased. Regarding Iran’s uranium enrichment, he stated: “It is already beyond the limits of the JCPOA but in general terms there is no significant increase in the volumes”. The IAEA noted, in its November 11, 2020 quarterly report, that as of November 2, 2020, Iran had a stockpile of 2,442.9 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, up from 2,105.4 kilograms reported on August 25, 2020. The JCPOA allows Iran to only keep a stockpile of low-enriched uranium upto 202.8 kilograms. The IAEA also noted that Iran continued to enrich uranium to a purity of up to 4.5%, higher than the 3.67% allowance under the JCPOA. Iran reduced its compliance with the JCPOA commitments following US President Donald Trump’s decision to unilaterally withdraw the US from the Agreement in 2018, and the subsequent failure by its European signatories, including

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France, Germany and the UK, to secure for Iran the economic benefits promised to it under the JCPAO.

Regarding North Korea’s nuclear programmes, the DG IAEA noted that the IAEA continues to monitor the nuclear programme of the country. Grossi stated that some nuclear facilities in North Korea continued to operate while others remained shut down. He stated: “There are indications consistent with internal construction activities at the experimental light water reactor (LWR) and the production of enriched uranium”.

● On November 17, the US’ Missile Defence Agency (MDA) announced a successful interception test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with an SM-3 Block IIA interception missile.

The MDA noted that the test marked the first successful interception test of an ICBM by using a US Navy ship, the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer John Finn, equipped with an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence System. Previously, the US’ missile defence tests against ICBM targets had used interceptors launched from underground silos. During the test, an SM-3 Block IIA missile, developed by Raytheon Missiles and Defence company, intercepted a mock ICBM simulating a strike on Hawaii. In its statement, the MDA stated: “We have demonstrated that an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) equipped vessel equipped with the SM-3 Block IIA missile can defeat an ICBM-class target, which is a step in the process of determining its feasibility as part of an architecture for layered defence of the homeland”. According to the MDA, it was the sixth test of the SM-3 Block IIA missile and the first test of the missile against an ICBM. The test fulfilled a Congressional requirement to test the SM-3 Block IIA against ICBMs before the end of 2020. Earlier, the MDA had scheduled the test in May 2020.

● On November 17, Vice Admiral Johnny Wolfe, Director of the US Navy’s Strategic Systems Programmes, indicated that the Navy was working to deploy a hypersonic strike weapon on submarines by 2025.

While speaking at the Naval Submarine League Annual Symposium, Johnny Wolfe noted that the submarines would see a “limited operating capability” of the hypersonic weapon by 2025. Wolfe emphasised that hypersonic weapons were the top priority for the US Navy, and that these weapons will be used as conventional prompt strike (CPS) weapons, as an alternative to ​ ​ long-range nuclear weapons. In March 2020, the US Navy conducted a second flight test of an unarmed prototype of a hypersonic missile, which Wolfe had termed “extremely successful”, meeting all test requirements. Following the test, Wolfe stated: “Today we validated our design and are now ready to move to the next phase towards fielding a hypersonic strike capability”.

--- Moiz Khan

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CHINA, EAST ASIA & PACIFIC China ● On November 26, the Chinese Ministry of National Defence stated that the Chinese military is in the process of modernising military theories, organisations, personnel, weapons and equipment in order to reach its centennial goal by 2027.

The development goal, set at the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in October 2020, aims to enhance the Chinese military’s strategic capability to safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests. A Defence Ministry spokesperson stated that to achieve the goal, the Chinese military should accelerate the integrated development of mechanisation, informatisation and intelligentization, while boosting the speed of modernisation in military theories, organisations, personnel, weapons and equipment. The spokesperson also noted that while China has become the second largest economy in the world, its national defence capability does not match this, nor can it adapt to China’s international position and strategic security needs. In early November 2020, the Central Military Commission also released an outline on improving joint combat capabilities of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

● On November 26, during his visit to South Korea, Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, met with his counterpart, Kang Kyung-wha, and discussed bilateral relations, among a range of other issues.

During the meeting, both leaders reached a ten-point consensus on issues ranging from anti-pandemic cooperation and advancing the Free Trade Agreement (FTA); cultural exchanges; and establishing a committee to chart a blueprint for future bilateral ties. Apart from reaching agreements on economic cooperation during the meeting, China and South Korea also agreed to follow the guidance of the two countries’ leaders, enhance friendship and mutual trust, deepen pragmatic cooperation and push the China-South Korea strategic cooperative partnership to a new level.

The two sides also agreed to set up the commission on the future development of China-South Korea relations to draw up a blueprint for the development of bilateral relations over the next 30 years. The year of 2022 will mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and South Korea.

Wang also called on South Korea to push forward linking of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with South Korea’s development strategies, and to reach an agreement on the second phase of the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Wang’s tour to South Korea, following his Japan visit, demonstrates how by putting aside disputes, the three major countries in Asia can work together to promote regional economic development amid the Coronavirus pandemic.

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● On November 25, Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, concluded his two-day visit to Japan, where he held meetings with Government officials, including Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga.

During the meeting with Suga, Wang stated that China-Japan relations have finally returned to the right track after years of hard work, and the two sides should cherish this hard-won situation. Wang added that China is ready to work with Japan to build China-Japan relations to meet the requirements of the new era. He called to establish mutual trust to deal with sensitive issues, and push forward regional cooperation. Meanwhile, Suga contended that developing stable Japan-China relations is of great importance not only to both countries, but also to the region and the international community at large.

On November 24, 2020, Wang held a meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister, Toshimitsu Motegi. During the meeting, the two sides reached consensus on a wide range of issues, including fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, promoting economic recovery, and supporting each other in hosting the Olympic Games. Both sides agreed to make efforts for the early enforcement of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and to accelerate negotiations on the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement and regional cooperation.

On the Diaoyu Islands issue, Wang called on both sides to earnestly abide by the four-point consensus reached between China and Japan; avoid taking actions in sensitive waters that would complicate the situation; and timely redressal of problems. Both States have agreed to establish a maritime and air liaison mechanism to enhance risk management and mutual trust. According to experts, Wang’s Japan visit would stabilise China-Japan relations, as the two countries have reached a crossroads at a time when rapidly deteriorating China-US relations have further complicated China-Japan relations.

● On November 22, while virtually addressing the Group of 20 (G20) Summit, Chinese President, Xi Jinping, highlighted his country’s resolve in tackling global issues, including climate change and poverty alleviation, and committed to promote global cooperation in fighting COVID-19 and helping save the global economy.

Xi reiterated that China will honour its pledge to make vaccines a global public good, and urged more countries to join a China-proposed mechanism on mutual recognition of health certificates with a QR code to allow global travel to resume. He also vowed to increase the level of debt suspension and relief for countries facing particular difficulties. He reaffirmed China’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to contribute to addressing climate change. Xi also emphasised the significance of poverty alleviation across the globe, calling for more financial and digital support for developing countries and vulnerable groups. Leaders of the world’s 20 biggest economies vowed, in a joint declaration, to deploy all available policy tools to contain the raging COVID-19 global pandemic and save the global economy from plunging

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further into disarray, with efforts to advance global pandemic preparedness, vaccine development and distribution. They also called for relief of the debt burden on developing countries.

● On November 20, China reiterated its support for Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lijian Zhao, stated that China appreciates the positive contribution by Pakistan to the international counter-terrorism cause, and that it firmly supports Pakistan in cracking down against terrorist forces. He added that attempts that aim to sabotage the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are doomed to fail. The statement from China’s Foreign Ministry came hours after Indian Premier, Narendra Modi, claimed a Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) plot in Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir had been thwarted.

● On November 17, in his speech at the virtual summit of the BRICS, Chinese President, Xi Jinping, called for efforts to uphold the global multilateral system, protect economic globalisation and reject the use of national security as an excuse to pursue protectionism.

Xi urged BRICS countries to overcome division with unity, replace bias with reason and stamp out the "political virus", noting politicization, stigmatization, blame-shifting and scapegoating only serve to disrupt overall global cooperation against the virus. Warning against using the pandemic to pursue de-globalisation, Xi stated that this would end up undermining the common interests of all. BRICS is a multilateral grouping comprising five major emerging countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

● On November 16, the Chinese Foreign Ministry conveyed, in a statement, that the one-China Principle is the basis of China-US diplomatic relations.

The statement added that the US should abide by the one-China Principle and the three China-US joint communiqués; and that it should cease official and military contact with the island of Taiwan. The statement came in response to US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo’s claims that “Taiwan has not been a part of China”. Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, observed that there is only one China in the world, and that Taiwan is part of China. He further stated that the Government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China. He noted that these are basic facts, basic principles of international relations and the basis for China-US diplomatic ties. He also noted that the so-called “Taiwan relations act” and “six assurances” were unilaterally formulated by the US, in violation of the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués. Zhao Lijian further stated that the act and six assurances constitute a blatant interference in China's internal affairs, and have, therefore, been illegal and invalid from the very beginning. Responding to a question on the recent unprovoked, deliberate and indiscriminate targeting of the civilian population, by Indian troops, along the LoC, Zhao stated: “India and Pakistan are both important countries in South Asia. Harmonious coexistence between the two sides is vital to

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regional peace, stability and development. As a neighbour of both countries, China calls on the two sides to exercise restraint, resolve differences through dialogue, and jointly safeguard regional peace and stability. China's position on the Kashmir issue is consistent and clear. It is an issue left over from history between India and Pakistan, which should be resolved properly and peacefully in accordance with the UN Charter, relevant Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements”. Commenting on Pakistan’s decision to share incriminating evidence on India harbouring, training and financing terrorist networks, Zhao stated: “China opposes all forms of terrorism and calls on the international community, regional countries in particular, to carry out counter-terrorism cooperation and safeguard collective security. The CPEC, as a major pioneering project of the BRI, is important not only to the common development of China and Pakistan, but also to regional connectivity and common prosperity. We are confident that with the support of the international community, China and Pakistan will ensure the smooth and successful building and running of CPEC. We also believe that Pakistan will continue to take effective measures to ensure CPEC security”.

Australia

● On November 27, the Australian Army dismissed 13 Special Forces soldiers owing to allegations of unlawful killings in Afghanistan.

● On November 22, Australia’s Defence Force Chief, General Angus Campbell, stated that the country’s defence force must ‘own’ a recent report on soldiers committing crimes in Afghanistan and pledged changes to ensure that atrocities do not happen again.

The Report, published on November 19, 2020, after an inquiry into the conduct of special forces personnel in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2016, found that senior commandos forced junior soldiers to kill defenceless captives in order to “blood” them for combat. The Report, which refers 19 current and former soldiers for potential prosecution, caused shame and anger in Australia, a country that usually honours its military history with fervour. Meanwhile, Abdullah Abdullah, Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, called the Report on Australian forces’ mistreatment in Afghanistan as shocking and stated: “...unfortunately, incidents as such have happened in the past and troops were involved but the Australian government has come clear about it, without any sort of doubt, and they have apologised for it”.

---Kashif Hussain

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EUROPE

● On November 28, thousands of people across France gathered to protest against a proposed security law that would restrict the filming of police officers.

● On November 18, French President Emmanuel Macron asked the French Council of Muslim Worship (CFCM) to agree to a “Charter of republican values”.

The rallies took place against a proposed provision of law that would make it a crime to publish photos or videos of on-duty police officers with the intent of harming their “physical or psychological integrity”. The French authorities are of the view that the law is needed to protect police amid threats and attacks by a violent fringe. However, civil liberties groups, journalists, and people who have faced police abuse expressed their concerns that this law would undermine press freedoms and allow police brutality to go undiscovered and unpunished.

Earlier, on November 18, 2020, French President Emmanuel Macron asked the country’s Muslim leaders to accept a Charter of “republican values”, which states that “Islam is not a political movement and prohibits foreign interference in Muslim groups”. Macron met with leaders of the French Council of the Muslim Faith (CFCM) and asked them to accept the Charter within 15 days. Regarding the Charter, the Le Parisien newspaper reported that two principles will be inscribed in black and white: the rejection of political Islam and any foreign interference.

Meanwhile, on November 18, 2020, Macron also announced new measures to tackle what he called “Islamist separatism” in France. These measures include restrictions on home-schooling; extending to all children a national identification number (INE) that would be used under the law to ensure they are attending school; and a ban on sharing the personal information of a person in a way that allows them to be located by people who want to harm them.

● On November 28, Germany announced that it would resume construction on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, after a one-year pause owing to US sanctions.

Germany noted that construction would resume on December 5, 2020. The Nord Stream 2 AG Company indicated that it would resume working on the undersea pipe-laying within Germany’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In December 2019, Germany suspended the construction on Nord Stream 2, following US sanctions on the Project. The US seeks to prevent the pipeline from being completed, arguing that it will strengthen Russia’s energy hold over Europe and undercut Ukraine’s role as a transit country for Russian gas.

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● On November 21, Russia imposed sanctions on 21 British citizens aimed at reciprocating the UK’s imposition of sanctions against a similar number of Russians for human rights violations.

While announcing the reciprocal sanctions, the Russian Foreign Ministry noted that the UK’s sanctions against the Russian officials, announced on July 6, 2020, came “under imaginary and absurd pretexts”. The Ministry stated that the 21 British citizens are, therefore, banned from entering Russia. However, the Ministry did provide the names of the sanctioned British citizens. The UK imposed sanctions against 25 Russians as part of its post-Brexit measures, aimed at “people who have committed the gravest human rights violations”. The sanctions included a ban on travel to Britain and asset freezes. The British list includes Aleksandr Bastrykin, Head of the powerful Investigative Committee, as well as judges and prosecutors, allegedly involved in human rights violations.

Belarusian Crisis

● On November 27, Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, noted that he would leave his post after the adoption of a new constitution.

Alexander Lukashenko stated: “I will not work as president with you under the new constitution”. While refusing to provide a timeline for when a new constitution will be enacted, Lukashenko emphasized the need for amendments to the Constitution and adjustments in presidential powers. Though Lukashenko has mentioned the possibility of changes to the Constitution several times in the past, the Belarusian opposition has dismissed his comments as an attempt to buy time and stay in power while cracking down on anti-government protesters.

● On November 20, seven European countries, which are not members of the EU, aligned themselves with the sanctions imposed by the EU on Belarus in October 2020.

EU Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borrell, issued a statement noting that the seven countries, including EU candidates North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Ukraine, aligned themselves with sanctions imposed by the EU on Belarus. Borrell indicated that the seven countries will ensure that they conform to the EU’s sanctions decision at the earliest. On October 2, 2020, the Council of the EU adopted Council Implementing Decision (CFSP) 2020/1388, adding 40 individuals to the list of persons and entities subject to restrictive measures set out in the Annex to Decision 2012/642/CFSP. The sanctioned individuals include senior officials in the Belarusian Interior Ministry, Election Commission, Police and other security services accused of being responsible for fraud in the August 2020 Presidential Election and for their involvement in a crackdown against protesters and opposition members. However, Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, is not on the current list of sanctioned individuals.

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● On November 16, Maia Sandu, a former World Bank economist, who favours closer ties with the European Union, won Moldova’s Presidential Elections.

According to data from the Central Election Commission (CEC), Sandu captured over 57% of the vote, leaving behind the incumbent President, Igor Dodon, who Russian President Vladimir Putin identified as his preferred candidate. Sandu stated: “People want the ones in power to offer solutions to their problems”. During her political campaign, Sandu had promised to secure more financial support from the EU. Following the announcement of results by the CEC, Dodon congratulated Sandu. Dodon stated: “I call for calm and peace, absolutely no disturbances or protests, we must not allow any destabilization of the country”.

Armenia and Azerbaijan Conflict

● On November 25, Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, stated that Armenia’s stance on the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region will remain unchanged.

● On November 18, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, noted that Nagorno-Karabakh’s status would be agreed upon in the future.

● On November 17, Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged 385 dead bodies of those killed in fighting over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Head of the International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC), Peter Maurer, noted that both Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged dead bodies in the presence of Russian peacekeeping troops. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, his wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, and first Vice President, Mehriban Aliyeva, also visited the towns of Jebrayil and Fizuli, located in the south of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which were regained from Armenia during the conflict. President Aliyev stated: “There will be no autonomous status for Karabakh. Azerbaijan is a unified country”.

In this regard, however, on November 17, 2020, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, noted that Nagorno-Karabakh’s status would be agreed upon in the future, possibly after creation of normal conditions and resumption of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. Putin stated: “Yes, such a problem does exist. Karabakh’s final status has not yet been settled. We agreed that the status quo will be maintained and what happens next will be determined by future leaders, future participants in this process”.

On November 25, 2020, Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, emphasised that Armenia’s stance regarding the status of Nagorno-Karabakh will remain unchanged. Pashinyan noted that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh would be determined through the negotiation process within the

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framework of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group. He stated: “As a matter of fact, there is consensus, at least among the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, and Armenia agrees with this viewpoint, that the negotiations must go on within the framework of the co-chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk Group and that the issues that were not resolved in the joint statement are to become a subject matter within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group’s co-chairmanship”.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, however, the ethnic Armenians in the region reject Azerbaijani rule. The ethnic Armenians have been governing their own affairs, with support from Armenia, since Azerbaijan’s troops and ethnic Azeri civilians were pushed out of the region in a war that ended in 1994. During the armed conflict of 1992-1994, fought between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the majority ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh backed by Armenia, Azerbaijan lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjoining districts. The region then declared secession from Azerbaijan.

The OSCE Minsk Group for Nagorno-Karabakh was created in 1992 for promoting a settlement of the conflict. Its Co-Chairs are Russia, France and the US. Originally, it was responsible for making preparations for conferences. Since June 1993, it has brokered all conflict settlement efforts and has been directly involved in talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

● On November 20, Azerbaijan welcomed the deployment of Russia’s peacekeeping mission to the Nagorno-Karabakh region, under the November 9, 2020 Ceasefire Agreement signed between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

While terming the deployment of Russia peacekeepers an important stabilising factor, Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, stated: “We welcome the deployment of Russia’s peacekeeping mission that maintains contact with our agencies and, as far as we know, with Armenia, too. I believe it’s an important stabilising factor because there have been no serious ceasefire violations since the trilateral statement was signed, and I am sure there will not be”. Aliyev noted that the Ceasefire Agreement was a very important political document that brought to an end to the prolonged conflict.

Earlier on November 18, 2020, the Russian Federation Council approved a resolution granting consent to the Russian President to dispatch the Russian military to the Nagorno-Karabakh region, in order to ensure compliance with the Ceasefire Agreement on the cessation of hostilities and other hostile actions from the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides to prevent mass civilian casualties and significant damage to civilian facilities. Besides monitoring the implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement, Russian peacekeepers will assist the local authorities in various tasks, including helping to restore traffic, electricity and water supplies to social facilities and homes. Units of Russia’s 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade comprise

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the bulk of the peacekeeping contingent in the region. They have been deployed along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin corridor.

● On November 25, Azerbaijan’s military entered the Kalbajar district after Armenia handed over the district to Azerbaijan as part of the Ceasefire Agreement.

● On November 20, Azerbaijan’s military entered the Agdam district, the first of three districts bordering Nagorno-Karabakh, as part of the Ceasefire Agreement.

The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry noted that Azerbaijan’s military entered the Agdam district, one of three districts in Nagorno-Karabakh that are to be handed over to Azerbaijan after nearly three decades under Armenian control.

The exchange of territory was originally scheduled to begin on November 15, 2020. However, Azerbaijan’s President, Ilham Aliyev, postponed the handover operation to November 20, 2020, over “humanitarian” considerations. Azerbaijani troops moved into Agdam a day after Armenian soldiers and tanks moved out of the territory. While Azerbaijani people celebrated the handing over of the Agdam, the ethnic Armenian residents of the district set their homes on fire. Aliyev stated: “The government has to make sure all of the Armenian fighters are gone, the infrastructure is rebuilt, the area is cleared of mines and unexploded munitions so that people could go back and rebuild their lives”.

On November 25, 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed the Kalbajar district in the Nagorno-Karabakh region as Azerbaijan’s military entered into the district. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defence stated: “In line with the trilateral agreement, signed by the presidents of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation, and the Prime Minister of Armenia, units of the Azerbaijani armed forces entered the Kalbajar district on November 25, 2020”. The Ministry also released pictures showing troops scanning for landmines on snow-covered roads. The Kalbajar district serves as a strategic link between Armenia’s internationally recognised border and Armenian-held areas in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Armenia will hand over the Lachin district to Azerbaijan by December 1, 2020.

● On November 18, Turkey’s Parliament approved deployment of peacekeepers to Azerbaijan to monitor a ceasefire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Following the approval, the Turkish Government will send troops to Azerbaijan with a one-year mandate to observe possible violations of the truce from a joint Turkish-Russian monitoring centre. Four out of five parties in Turkey’s Parliament supported the motion for deployment in Azerbaijan. The Turkish Government observed that presence of Turkish peacekeepers was crucial for the region’s peace and welfare, and for protection of Turkey’s national interests. The Government would determine the number of peacekeepers. Earlier, on November 12, 2020,

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Russia and Turkey signed a memorandum for the creation of a joint Russian-Turkish centre for ceasefire supervision in Nagorno-Karabakh, following the videoconference talks between Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, and his Turkish counterpart, Hulusi Akar. The centre will be located in Azerbaijan. Turkish peacekeepers will not enter Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russian Foreign Ministry has stated that the centre will operate remotely, using drones and other technical means to monitor possible violations of the Ceasefire Agreement.

● On November 18, Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, accepted responsibility for losing the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan, and unveiled a six-month action plan to ensure democratic stability amid political tensions in the country.

Nikol Pashinian stated: “I would like to stress that I consider myself the main person responsible for the current situation, however, I am also the main person responsible for ensuring stability and safety in the country. So, I present a roadmap, and for its implementation, I have initiated changes in the government’s composition”. The measures that Pashinian unveiled aim at overcoming the consequences of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. These measures include social guarantees for the families of officers killed in combat, the return of prisoners to Armenia, the recovery of buildings and infrastructure damaged during hostilities, and the formation of a political rehabilitation system. The Armenian Prime Minister also planned to renew talks on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh within the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group. Meanwhile, Pashinian rejected calls from opponents and protesters to resign over what they say was his disastrous handling of the conflict between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and surrounding areas.

● On November 16, Armenian Foreign Minister, Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, resigned amid political tensions in Armenia following the Moscow-brokered ceasefire agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed on November 9, 2020.

Armenian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Anna Nagdhalyan, announced the resignation of Zohrab Mnatsakanyan in a Facebook post. Nagdhalyan posted his handwritten resignation letter on Facebook shortly after Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, announced in Parliament that he decided to dismiss Mnatsakanyan. Pashinian dismissed the Foreign Minister owing to disagreements over the handling of negotiations vis-à-vis the Ceasefire Agreement.

However, the disagreement between the Prime Minister’s Office and the Foreign Office still persisted following the resignation of the Foreign Minister. On November 16, Pashinian noted that there had been offers to cede to Azerbaijan regions that Armenia controlled around Nagorno-Karabakh and the city of Shusha, which is located near the territory’s capital, Stepanakert. However, Naghdalyan retorted on Facebook that giving up Shusha was never on the agenda “at any stage” of the peace negotiations. The differences between the two offices indicate that the political turmoil in Armenia increased drastically. Meanwhile, opposition

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political parties and their supporters continue to demand Pashinian’s ouster, with thousands of people regularly holding protests in Yerevan.

On November 15, 2020, Azerbaijan announced that it was postponing taking control of a territory ceded by Armenian forces under the November 9, 2020 Ceasefire Agreement. Azerbaijan agreed to delay the takeover until November 25, 2020, after a request from Armenia. Azerbaijan noted that unfavourable weather conditions were making the withdrawal of Armenian forces and civilians difficult.

Earlier, on November 9, Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, signed a new ceasefire agreement to bring to an end to hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The three countries signed the Ceasefire Agreement as Azerbaijani forces made major battlefield gains since the conflict began on September 26, 2020. Under the Agreement, Azerbaijan will hold control over the territory in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas captured during the conflict. Armenia will forfeit the Lachin region, where a crucial road connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. The Lachin region will be protected by around 2,000 Russian peacekeepers. Azerbaijan also called on Armenian forces to hand over some areas it held outside the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the eastern district of Agdam and western area of Kalbacar.

--- Moiz Khan

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GLOBAL TERRORISM

● On November 29, at least 3 civilians were killed and 23 were wounded in a suicide attack ​ in Afghanistan’s Zabul province.

Among the wounded was the Head of Zabul’s Provincial Council, who is believed to be the target of the attack. Local health officials stated that four wounded people are in critical condition. No group has claimed responsibility for the blast. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported 5,939 civilian casualties (2,117 killed and 3,822 injured) from 1 January to 30 September 2020.

● On November 28, at least 43 people were reportedly ‘slaughtered’ in an attack on labourers working in rice fields in Nigeria’s Borno state.

The assailants tied up the agricultural workers and slit their throats in the village of Koshobe. Eight others were missing, presumably having been kidnapped by the attackers. A search for the attackers has been launched by the authorities.

Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) are both active in northeast Nigeria. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, which has displaced around two million people since 2009.

In October 2020, Boko Haram fighters killed 22 farmers working on their irrigation fields near Maiduguri in two separate incidents. Boko Haram and ISWAP have increasingly targeted loggers, herders and fishermen in their violent campaign, accusing them of spying and passing information to the military and the local militia fighting these notorious terrorist groups.

● On November 22, the Pakistani military claimed that four terrorists were killed in the country’s northwest tribal district of North Waziristan.

The security forces conducted an intelligence-based operation on a terrorist hideout near Kaitu River northwest of Spinwam in North Waziristan. One soldier was martyred while two soldiers were injured during the operation. The Pakistani military had conducted a series of operations against terrorist groups in North Waziristan, bordering Afghanistan. Although the area has mostly been pacified, remnants of terrorist groups still manage to launch attacks on the security forces sporadically.

● On November 22, the al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) group appointed Abu Obaida Yusuf al-Annabi as its new leader.

The group’s former leader, Abdelmalek Droukdel, was killed in June 2020 by French forces. Al-Annabi has remained on the US’ “international terrorist” blacklist since September 2015.

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AQIM also confirmed the death of Swiss national, Beatrice Stoeckli, who was abducted in Timbuktu while working as a missionary in 2016. AQIM emerged from a group, which has its origins in the late 1990s, of Algerian fighters who, in 2007, pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network. France has more than 5,000 troops deployed in its “anti-jihadist” Barkhane force in the Sahel.

● On November 19, an anti-terrorism court (ATC) in Lahore convicted Jamaatud Dawa ​ (JuD) Chief, Hafiz Saeed, and three others in two separate terror-financing cases.

The Court handed down ten years and six-months imprisonment each to Saeed, Malik Zafar Iqbal and Yahya Mujahid, in addition to six months imprisonment awarded to Abdul Rehman Makki. The Court also imposed a fine of Rs.110,000 on him.

The Counter-Terrorism Department had registered the cases against the convicts under Section 11-N of the Anti-Terrorism Act 1997. The convicts were handed down sentences for engaging in terrorism financing, by managing assets of a proscribed organisation, and helping in raising funds for this organisation. Saeed has been behind bars since July 2019. He had already been convicted in two other cases.

---Kashif Hussain

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MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Iran ● On November 28, Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, accused Israel of acting as a “mercenary” for the US and seeking to create chaos. He vowed Tehran would avenge the assassination of a top Iranian nuclear scientist.

● On November 27, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Head of the Research and Innovation Organisation of the Iranian Defence Ministry, was assassinated in a terror attack near Tehran. According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Fakhrizadeh was shot “by terrorists” in his vehicle in Absard, a suburb in eastern Tehran, later succumbing to his wounds in what was described as a “martyr’s death”. Thus far, no one has claimed responsibility for the killing of the nuclear scientist. Fakhrizadeh was long suspected by Western and Israeli intelligence of leading the nation’s military nuclear programme until its disbanding in the early 2000s. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, stated that Iran’s first priority after the killing was the “definitive punishment of the perpetrators and those who ordered it”. Meanwhile, President Rouhani stated: “Once again, the evil hands of global arrogance were stained with the blood of the mercenary usurper Zionist regime”. Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, also accused Israel of carrying out the attack. Following the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, an extraordinary meeting of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Iranian Parliament was held in Tehran. According to Iranian officials, the meeting was held in the presence of the officials of the security and police apparatus and the Ministry of Defence. According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Fakhrizadeh oversaw activities “in support of a possible military dimension to (Iran’s) nuclear programme” within the so-called ‘AMAD’ Project. Israel also described the AMAD Plan as Iran’s secret nuclear weapons programme, and claimed to have seized a large chunk of an Iranian nuclear “archive” detailing its work. According to the IAEA, the AMAD project refers to an Iranian scientific project, started in 1989 and stopped in 2003, that is suspected by Israel to have nonetheless continued, with the aim of developing nuclear weapons. However, Iran denied the existence of any programme aimed at the development of a nuclear explosive device, and in particular denied the existence of the AMAD Plan in a 2015 report to the IAEA. Several countries and organisations, including the UN, the EU, Qatar, Iraq, the UAE, Syria, Turkey, Germany and Venezuela, condemned the killing of the Iranian nuclear scientist. The New York Times noted that an American official and two other intelligence officials confirmed Israel was behind the attack, without giving further details. The killing of Fakhrizadeh is the

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latest in a series of killings of nuclear scientists in Iran in recent years that the country has attributed to Israel. ● On November 25, Iran’s permanent Ambassador to the UN, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, informed a Security Council meeting on Syria that the full, immediate and unconditional withdrawal of US forces from Syria is essential. According to Takht-Ravanchi, instead of combating terrorism, American forces “continue supporting UN-designated terrorist groups such as al-Nusrah Front (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) as well as looting the oil and wealth of the Syrian people”. He added: “All foreign forces whose presence is not permitted by the Syrian Government must leave Syria”. The US, in collusion with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed alliance of Kurdish militants operating against Damascus, controls most of the oil fields in Syria’s oil-rich eastern regions. Over the past months, thousands of trucks carrying weapons, military and logistical equipment have entered the region. In August 2020, SANA reported that a convoy of 50 trucks carrying weapons, military equipment, and logistics entered Syria’s al-Hasakah province. The Pentagon alleges that the move aims to “protect” the fields and facilities from possible attacks by the Daesh terrorist group. However, according to US President Donald Trump, Washington sought economic interests in controlling the oil fields. During the UN meeting, the Iranian Ambassador also strongly condemned Israel’s continued aggressions against Syria’s sovereignty. He pointed to the recent “provocative” visit of US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to the Syrian Golan, and noted that the visit was “designed to legitimise the annexation”. He stated: “Golan is and will remain a part and parcel of the Syrian territory”. Earlier, on November 19, 2020, Pompeo made a rare and controversial visit to a settlement project in the occupied West Bank, located near the city of Bireh, north of Jerusalem. He became the first top American diplomat to visit an Israeli settlement. ● On November 22, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Saeed Khatibzadeh, stated that the “crimes” committed by the US against Iran do not prevent “carefully considered” exchanges from taking place. During a press conference in Tehran, Khatibzadeh noted: “The future of relations between Iran and the US is not simple”. While citing a long list of crimes, he stated: “The US has committed repeated crimes against the Iranian people”. He added: “It is natural that members of the UN (like the US and Iran), there have always been, and there are, very carefully considered exchanges, in a known framework”. The Spokesperson noted that this “does not mean that Iran is forgetting this list of crimes”. Tehran and Washington have remained rivals for more than four decades, and have edged to the brink of war twice since June 2019, amid tensions over Iran’s 2015 Nuclear Agreement with world powers, which outgoing US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from in May

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2018. Meanwhile, US President-elect, Joe Biden, has promised a return to diplomacy with Iran. Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani’s Government has also offered a cautious welcome to Biden’s victory, showing signs of apparent overtures to Biden. However, conservatives in Iran are critical, accusing the country’s Government of yielding to what they say is an “illusion” of a change by the US.

Iraq ● On November 16, Iraq executed 21 men convicted of “terrorism” at the Nasiriyah prison in the country’s south. The Iraqi prisoners from various provinces had all been convicted under a 2005 Counter-Terrorism Law, which carries the death penalty, but there were no details on their specific crimes. They were hanged in the Nasiriyah prison in Dhi Qar province, the only prison in Iraq that carries out capital punishment. Iraqis fearfully refer to Nasiriyah jail as “Al-Hut”, or “the whale”, a vast prison complex that “swallows people up”. Since announcing the defeat of Daesh in late 2017, Iraq has condemned hundreds of its own citizens to death for membership in the militant group. However, only a small proportion of the sentences have been carried out, as they must be approved by the country’s President. Iraq’s courts have also tried dozens of foreign nationals for alleged Daesh membership, condemning eleven French citizens and one Belgian national to death. Those sentences have not yet been carried out. According to the Amnesty International, Iraq ranks fifth among countries that carry out death sentences. It documented 100 executions in the country in 2019. Amnesty and other advocacy groups accuse Iraq’s justice system of corruption; of carrying out rushed trials using circumstantial evidence; and failing to allow the accused a proper defence or access to lawyers.

Israel ● On November 22, the Israeli Military carried out air strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza in response to a rocket attack launched from the Palestinian enclave. According to the Israel Defence Forces, the Air Force struck two rocket ammunition manufacturing sites, a military compound and “underground infrastructures”. Earlier, on November 21, 2020, a rocket was fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip. Israel holds Hamas responsible for all attacks originating from its territory. Israel considers Hamas a terrorist ​ ​ group. Hamas seized control of Gaza from the rival Palestinian movement Fatah in 2007. Since then Hamas has fought three devastating wars with Israel.

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● On November 18, during his meeting with US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in Jerusalem, Bahrain’s Foreign Minister, Abdullatif Al-Zayani, called for fresh Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. During a joint press conference, al-Zayani noted that the historic US-brokered deals that Bahrain and the UAE had struck to normalise ties with Israel would help foster a dawn of “peace for the entire Middle East”. He stated: “To achieve and consolidate such a peace, the Palestinian and Israeli conflict needs to be resolved. I, therefore, call for both parties to get around the negotiating table to achieve a viable two-state solution”. During the meeting, both sides also agreed to set up embassies in each other’s countries. Meanwhile, Pompeo emphasized the need to work together to isolate their common foe, Iran. He noted: “Iran is ever more isolated and this shall forever be until they change their direction”.

Palestine ● On November 18, the UN General Assembly’s Second Committee overwhelmingly approved a draft resolution that called on nations to ensure that they do not treat settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem al-Quds as part of the Israeli entity. The resolution was passed with 156 votes in favour and 6 votes against. Those voting against the resolution included Israel, the US, Canada, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Nauru. Countries which abstained from the resolution included Australia, Brazil, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Ivory Coast, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Kiribati, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Togo, Tonga and Tuvalu. The document highlighted UN Security Council Resolution 2334, endorsed in December 2016, which pronounced Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East al-Quds “a flagrant violation under international law”, calling on Member States to ensure that they do not participate in actions of de facto annexation of the occupied lands. The new resolution “underscored, in this regard, the call by the Security Council, in its resolution 2334 (2016), upon all States to distinguish, in their relevant dealings, between … Israel and the territories occupied since 1967”. It also condemned the Tel Aviv regime’s razing of Palestinian structures and recognised the Palestinians’ sovereign rights to the natural resources of the West Bank and East Jerusalem al-Quds. It further affirmed the “inalienable rights of the Palestinian people and of the population of the occupied Syrian Golan over their natural resources, including land, water and energy resources”. The resolution added that the Palestinians should be compensated for Israeli use of their natural resources. The document also called “upon Israel not to impede Palestinian development and export of discovered oil and natural gas reserves”. The Palestinian representative thanked those

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countries that supported the resolution, which he described as an affirmation of the rights of Palestinians to the territory over the pre-1967 lines. He also called for urgent international action to bring Israel into compliance with international law.

Saudi Arabia ● On November 23, Riyadh denied Israeli media reports of a meeting between Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. Israeli public broadcaster, Kan, and other media outlets, reported that Netanyahu and Mossad spy agency Chief, Yosef Meir Cohen, had met Prince Mohammed, together with US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, in the Red Sea city of Neom. The reports fuelled speculation that the Jewish State may be getting closer to normalising ties with the Kingdom after its recent US-brokered deals with the UAE and Bahrain. While an Israeli Government source confirmed the reports to AFP on condition of anonymity, Israeli Defence Minister, Benny Gantz, condemned “the irresponsible leak of the secret flight to Saudi Arabia”. Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet member, Yoav Gallant, also stated on Army Radio: “The very fact the meeting happened, and was outed publicly, even if half-officially right now, is a matter of great importance”. However, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan strongly denied the report that suggested the Kingdom was moving away from its decades old stance of refusing dialogue with Israel until the Palestinian conflict is resolved. Prince Faisal tweeted: “I have seen press reports about a purported meeting between HRH the Crown Prince and Israeli officials during the recent visit by Secretary Pompeo. No such meeting occurred. The only officials present were American and Saudi”.

th ● On November 22, the 15 ​ meeting of the two-day G20 Summit concluded in Riyadh. ​ Saudi Arabia hosted the Summit, which was held virtually in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Summit brought together leaders of economies that account for about 85 percent of global Gross Domestic Product to discuss the most challenging socioeconomic issues. The G20 group consists of Germany, the US, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Indonesia, France, South Africa, South Korea, India, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the EU, as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. In his closing remarks, King Salman noted that G20 countries have succeeded in sending a message of hope and reassurance to their citizens and the global community. Referring to the final communique, he stated: “It is my honour to announce that the G20 members have adopted this communique. This is what the world has been expecting from us. This achievement today is a culmination of our joint efforts throughout this challenge-fraught year”. King Salman added: “Our joint and individual actions will be critical in overcoming the immediate global challenge

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we are facing. Looking forward, through empowering people, safeguarding the planet and shaping new frontiers, we will work on laying the foundations to achieve the main theme of our st presidency: realising opportunities of the 21 ​ century for all”. ​ King Salman noted that the G20 countries have upheld their commitment to working together to confront the pandemic and to safeguard lives and livelihoods. The Summit’s final communique stated: “We, the G20 leaders, meeting for the second time under the Saudi presidency, stand united in our conviction that coordinated global action, solidarity, and multilateral cooperation are more necessary today than ever to overcome the current challenges and realise opportunities st of the 21 ​ century for all by empowering people, safeguarding the planet, and shaping new ​ frontiers”. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman formally handed over the G20 presidency to Italy, which will chair next year’s Summit. ● On November 18, Iraq and Saudi Arabia reopened their land border for the first time in 30 years, with closer trade ties having been established between the two countries. Top officials, including Iraq’s Interior Minister and the head of its border commission, travelled from Baghdad to formally open the Arar crossing. A delegation from Riyadh also joined them on the border crossing. Arar will be open to both goods and people for the first time since Riyadh cut off its diplomatic relationship with Baghdad in 1990, following Iraqi ex-dictator Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. Ever since, ties between the two countries have remained strained. However, the current Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhemi, has a close personal relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which has allowed the thawing of relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Baghdad sees Arar as a potential alternative to its crossings with eastern neighbour Iran, through which Iraq brings in a large share of its imports. The two states are also exploring the reopening of a second border point at Al-Jumayma, along Iraq’s southern border with the Kingdom. Pro-Iran factions in Iraq, which call themselves the “Islamic Resistance”, have stood firmly against closer ties with Saudi Arabia. Ahead of Arar’s opening, one such group, identifying itself as Ashab al Kahf, published a statement announcing its “rejection of the Saudi project in Iraq”. Kadhemi strongly responded to such elements who describe the rapprochement as Saudi “colonialism”. He stated: “This is a lie. It’s shameful. Let them invest. Welcome to Iraq”. Kadhemi added that Saudi investment could bring in a flood of new jobs to Iraq, where more than one-third of the youth are unemployed.

Syria ● On November 25, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that at least eight pro-Iran fighters were killed in Israeli air strikes in Syria.

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According to the Observatory, the strikes targeted an arms depot and a position held by Iranian forces and their Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, near Damascus. A pro-Iran militia position in southern Syria was also targeted by Israeli jets. The Israeli Army rarely acknowledges individual strikes and refused to comment on the latest strikes as well. Israel has carried out numerous air and missile strikes on Syria, targeting government troops as well as Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah forces, which support President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. ● On November 24, at least 29 people were killed in three separate explosions in parts of northern Syria, along the border with Turkey. There was no immediate link between the two car bombings near Al-Bab and in Afrin that killed a total of eight people, or the incident that claimed twenty-one lives in a minefield. In the northern part of the country, Turkey and its Syrian proxies control several pockets of territory, following three military incursions since 2016 against Daesh. Since then, there have been a series of attacks against pro-Turkey fighters in the northern part. ● On November 22, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least 14 pro-Iran militia fighters from Iraq and Afghanistan were killed in air strikes in eastern Syria. The Observatory noted that the strikes in Deir Ezzor province, on the border with Iraq, were likely carried out by Israeli war planes. It reported that more than 10 strikes hit positions of Iran-backed militias outside the border town of Al Bukamal. The strikes also destroyed two bases, as well as several military vehicles. Iran-backed fighters are heavily deployed in a stretch of territory between the Syrian towns of Al Bukamal and Mayadeen, both former strongholds of Daesh. Israel has carried out hundreds of air and missile strikes on Syria since the civil war broke out in 2011, targeting Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah forces as well as Government troops. ● On November 18, Israeli warplanes attacked Syria and hit Iranian targets in the country. At least 10 Syrian and foreign fighters were killed in what the Israeli Army called a ‘retaliatory attack’ after explosive devices were found near one of its bases in the occupied Golan Heights. According to a statement from the Israeli Army, its fighter jets had, overnight, hit “military targets belonging to the Iranian Quds Force and the Syrian Armed Forces”. The elite Quds Force is the main foreign operations arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The statement added that the targets included “storage facilities, headquarters and military compounds”, as well as “Syrian surface-to-air missile batteries”. Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of air and missile strikes against the country, targeting Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah forces, as well as government troops.

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Turkey ● On November 26, a Turkish court jailed more than 300 former pilots and other suspects for life in a mass trial following a 2016 coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Fethullah Gulen, a US-based Muslim preacher, is accused of ordering the failed putsch. His movement has been proscribed as a terrorist group by Ankara. A total of 251 people died and more than 2,000 were injured during the failed coup attempt. Since then, an aggressive government crackdown has resulted in thousands of arrests across the country. In the latest trial, the Presiding Judge awarded multiple life sentences to 27 disgruntled air force pilots who bombed Ankara. Life sentences were also awarded to civilians who orchestrated the coup attempt from inside the Akinci military base, near the capital. Court documents showed 337 defendants were handed down life sentences for murder, violating the constitutional order and attempting to assassinate Erdogan. 60 suspects were given jail sentences of various lengths while 75 were acquitted. The verdict concludes a trial that began in August 2017, involving nearly 500 suspects. ● On November 21, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, held a telephonic conversation with Saudi King, Salman bin Abdulaziz, and discussed ways of enhancing ties between the two countries. According to the Turkish Presidency, the two leaders discussed bilateral relations and exchanged views on the G20 Summit. It stated: “President Erdogan and King Salman agreed on keeping channels of dialogue open in order for the bilateral relations to be enhanced and for issues to be settled”. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia deteriorated following the killing, in 2018, of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Kingdom’s Consulate in Istanbul. ● On November 16, Anadolu Agency reported that, during his visit to the Turkish Republic ​ ​ of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, favoured a permanent division of Cyprus into two states. The comments by President Erdogan marked a further setback vis-à-vis hopes for an eventual reunification of the Mediterranean island. The island is split between Turkey, on the one hand, and the Republic of Cyprus, on the other, which controls the island’s southern two-thirds. The northern part is occupied by Turkey since 1974. During his visit, Erdogan stated: “There are two peoples and two separate states in Cyprus. There must be talks for a solution on the basis of two separate states”. Erdogan’s visit to the Turkish-held Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara, comes amid heightened tensions on the island and in the Eastern Mediterranean. The visit received condemnation, as a “provocation without precedent”, from the Republic of Cyprus.

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th Erdogan’s visit marked the 37 ​ anniversary of the self-proclaimed TRNC, where an estimated ​ 30,000 Turkish troops are presently stationed. UAE ● On November 26, the first scheduled commercial flight from Dubai landed in Tel Aviv following the normalisation of ties between the UAE and Israel. Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, greeted the passengers after a ‘flydubai’ aircraft landed at the Ben-Gurion Airport, and called it “a moment of history”. Similarly, on the aircraft’s return flight, around 200 Israeli passengers landed in Dubai from Tel Aviv. In September 2020, the UAE signed a landmark US-brokered deal to formalise relations with Israel. On November 26, 2020, commenting on the accord in a tweet, UAE President, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, stated that it would foster “prosperity and progress” in the Middle East. The UAE became the third Arab country to normalise ties with Israel, following Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.

Yemen ● On November 24, Spokesperson of Yemen’s Houthi movement, Mohammed Abdul-Salam, stated that its armed forces reserve the legitimate right to respond to any act of aggression by the Saudi-led military Coalition. Salam’s remarks came after Riyadh complained to the UN Security Council over a Yemeni missile attack on an Aramco petroleum products distribution plant in Jeddah. In his twitter post, Salam stated: “The Saudi regime, despite all its appeals for condemnation and attempts to portray itself as a victim, cannot escape the fact that it is an aggressor and abuses the rights of Yemeni people”. He added: “The whole world knows it was the Saudi regime which launched an aggression and siege (against Yemen), and is pressing ahead with them”. Earlier, on November 23, 2020, Saudi Ambassador to the UN, Abdallah al-Mouallimi, stated, in a letter to the Security Council, that Yemeni forces were to blame for the missile attack on the Aramco petroleum plant in Jeddah that had occurred earlier in the day. Saudi Arabia acknowledged that the Yemeni attack targeted the “core of the global economy and its supply routes”, causing major damage to the Aramco distribution facility. Yemen maintains that the raid was a response to the Riyadh-led war and siege of Yemen, and that it was “similar to what happened at Khurais and Abqaiq”, referring to the strikes on the two Saudi oil facilities in 2019 that halved the Kingdom’s oil production and profoundly increased global oil prices. Ali al-Qahoum, a member of the Houthi’s Supreme Political Council, warned that next strikes by Yemeni armed forces against Saudi Arabia would be “even more painful”. ---Muhammad Shoaib

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SOUTH ASIA: I

Pakistan (External) ● On November 28, during a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Foreign Ministers of Member States unanimously reaffirmed support for the Kashmir cause. The Organisation also unanimously adopted a Pakistan-sponsored resolution urging the UN Secretary General to initiate a global dialogue to counter rising Islamophobia and promote interfaith harmony.

th The OIC held its 47 ​ Session of the Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) in Niamey, Niger. ​ According to details of the Niamey meeting, released by Pakistan’s Foreign Office, the CFM categorically rejected illegal and unilateral actions taken by India on August 5, 2019, aimed at altering the internationally recognised disputed status of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK); and demanded India rescind its illegal steps. It asked India to cancel the issuance of domicile certificates to non-Kashmiris as well as other unilateral and illegal actions, including the Jammu & Kashmir Reorganisation Order, 2020; the Jammu & Kashmir Grant of Domicile Certificate Rules, 2020;the Jammu and Kashmir Language, Bill 2020 and amendments to the land ownership laws. Also rejecting policies being pursued by the RSS-BJP regime, the OIC asked India to refrain from taking any steps to alter the demographic structure of the disputed territory. The Foreign Ministers condemned, in the strongest possible terms, human rights violations perpetrated by Indian occupation forces in IIOJK and other such instances of terrorism that have been the source of suffering for innocent Kashmiris. The resolution condemned state-sponsored terrorism and crimes against humanity perpetrated by Indian occupation forces against the Kashmiri people. It also denounced extrajudicial killings during fake ‘encounters’, ‘search-and-cordon’ operations, and demolition of houses and private properties as a form of collective punishment. The unanimous resolution condemned the renewed use of pellet guns by Indian occupation forces against innocent civilians; and the harassment of Kashmiri women by Indian troops, emphasizing that India had callously exploited the current COVID-19 crisis to intensify its military crackdown and further advance its unlawful occupation. The CFM welcomed the March 2020 visit to Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir of the OIC Secretary General’s Special Envoy for Jammu and Kashmir. India was asked to adhere to its international human rights obligations and allow the OIC Special Representative on Jammu and Kashmir and the OIC Fact-finding Mission to visit occupied Kashmir and implement recommendations of the two reports of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights on Jammu and Kashmir. The OIC asked the international community to review its engagements with India

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as it was violating and disregarding international law, international humanitarian law, and international resolutions. A separate resolution tabled by Pakistan at the Session of the CFM was drafted in the context of growing incidents of Islamophobia in various parts of the world. The resolution expressed concern that Islamophobia, as a contemporary form of racism and religious discrimination, was on the rise. It expressed deep concern at the recent incidents of desecration of the Holy Quran and reprinting of blasphemous caricatures, which hurt sentiments of Muslims around the world. The OIC decided to designate March 15 as the “International Day to Combat Islamophobia” each year. It authorised the OIC Permanent Missions in New York to jointly table a resolution before the UN General Assembly, calling for recognition of this day. The resolution urged OIC Member States to organise and support various high-visibility events aimed at effectively increasing awareness at all levels about curbing Islamophobia and anti-Muslim hatred. Speaking during the Session, FM Qureshi stated that adoption of the resolution was a reflection of the sentiments of billions of Muslims who respected other religions and expected similar respect for Islam and the Prophet (Peace Be Upon Him). Meanwhile, positively responding to Pakistan’s offer, the CFM meeting decided to host its 48th ​ session in Islamabad, scheduled to take place in 2021. On the bilateral level, Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, who led Pakistan’s delegation at the Session of the CFM, raised the issue of the ban on visas for Pakistanis recently imposed by the UAE with the UAE’s Minister of State for International Cooperation, Reem Al Hashimi. He highlighted the close fraternal ties as well as people-to-people contacts between the two countries and stressed Pakistan’s commitment to forge closer cooperation with the UAE in diverse fields. While appreciating FM Qureshi’s statement at the CFM session, the Emirati Minister welcomed Pakistan’s initiative to propose an OIC resolution on combating Islamophobia. The two sides also exchanged views on OIC matters and stressed the importance of strengthening it as a united and pivotal platform for the Ummah. FM Qureshi also held separate meetings with the Foreign Minister of Niger, Kalla Ankouraou; Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Somalia, Balal Mohamed Osman; Sudanese Foreign Minister, Omar Qamaruddin Ismail; and Foreign Minister of Kuwait, Dr. Ahmad Nasser Al Mohammed Al Sabah. ● On November 26, Pakistan joined the Digital Cooperation Organisation (DCO), a Saudi-led initiative, aimed at promoting digital cooperation among Member States. Saudi Arabia launched the new Organisation during a virtual event. According to a statement from the Foreign Office: “Pakistan has joined the Digital Cooperation Organisation (DCO) as a founding member”. Besides Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, other members of the DCO include Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and the UAE.

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During his video statement at the event, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi stated: “The creation of the DCO would cater to the growing need of international cooperation and collaboration in the digital domain”. He added: “DCO would offer a platform to promote the global digital agenda in the scientific, health, educational, commercial, social, agricultural, investment and security spheres”. The statement from the Foreign Office noted that digital diplomacy had been a core component of the Foreign Minister’s public diplomacy initiative, aimed at bringing innovation and enhancing Pakistan’s digital diplomacy footprint. ● On November 26, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on National Security, Dr. Moeed Yusuf, held talks with Afghan Ambassador, Najibullah Ali Khel, and raised the issue of Indian terrorist activities in Pakistan. During his talks with the Ambassador, the SAPM discussed matters pertaining to regional peace and security. According to Dr. Yusuf, the two countries shared common geographical, historical, religious and cultural ties. He also discussed Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent visit to Kabul. The SAPM stated that the two countries had agreed to work together to resolve security issues, adding that “the region can only move forward if Pakistan and Afghanistan are united in their thinking”. He emphasised that prosperity in both countries would come from mutual relations and trade. While highlighting India’s terrorist activities in Pakistan, Dr. Yusuf maintained that India was trying to destabilise Pakistan, whereas the latter was making continuous efforts for peace in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Afghan Ambassador assured the SAPM that Afghan soil would not be used against Pakistan. ● On November 25, Pakistan handed over a dossier on India’s terror campaign to UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, urging him to emphasise to Delhi that it must desist from its illegal and aggressive activities. According to Pakistan’s Envoy to the UN, Munir Akram, the UN Secretary General promised to “study the dossier and take appropriate action”. Ambassador Akram noted that Pakistan reserved the right to “act in self-defence” against India’s unending aggressions. Pakistan also plans to draw the attention of relevant UN bodies, including the Security Council, to India’s sponsorship of terrorism. While addressing a press conference, later at the Pakistan Mission, Akram explained how India’s irresponsible behaviour could jeopardise the entire region. During his meeting with Guterres, Ambassador Akram explained to the UN Secretary General India’s violations of international law, the UN Charter and UNSC resolutions through its sponsoring of terrorism inside Pakistan. During the press conference, Akram stated: “We have urged the Secretary General to play his role in persuading India to halt its terror and subversive campaign against Pakistan”. ● On November 21, Pakistan’s Foreign Office rejected as “unsubstantiated” Delhi’s allegations linking Pakistan to the purported botched terrorist attack in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

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The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) had claimed that a major terrorist attack by Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) was foiled by Indian security forces in Nagrota on November 19, 2020. On November 20, 2020, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in his tweet, claimed that a terrorist plot was “thwarted” after four “terrorists” belonging to JeM were “neutralised” by Indian security forces. According to the MEA, the Pakistani Chargé d'Affaires conveyed the Indian Government’s “serious concerns” at continued terror attacks by JeM against India. India had further claimed that the attack appeared to be aimed at derailing the local district development council elections, which are being held in IIOJK in phases from November 28 to December 19, 2020. While dismissing the Indian allegations, Pakistan’s Foreign Office stated that these were “entirely baseless and unsubstantiated” and part of “India’s desperate attempts to divert international attention from its state-terrorism in IIOJK and its state-sponsorship of terrorism against Pakistan”. The Foreign Office summoned the Indian Chargé d’Affaires to reject the allegations. The Foreign Office noted that the Indian allegations were meant to “mischievously implicate” Pakistan in what is being claimed as a “foiled attack” in Nagrota in IIOJK. ● On November 19, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Imran Khan, visited Kabul and held talks with Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani. During his visit, PM Khan assured Afghan leadership of Pakistan’s full cooperation vis-à-vis reduction in violence in Afghanistan. During a joint press conference with Ghani, the PM stated: “If you feel there is somewhere Pakistan can help, please let us know... We assure you that we will do whatever is within our reach”. PM Khan noted that the main purpose of undertaking the visit was to assure Afghan leadership that, despite the increase in violence, Pakistan’s major concern remained “peace in Afghanistan”. According to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Office, PM Khan “called on all sides for taking necessary measures for reduction in violence leading to ceasefire to protect Afghan lives”. The statement noted while “underscoring the importance of an inclusive, broad-based and comprehensive political settlement, the Prime Minister underlined that Pakistan will respect the decisions made by Afghans in the peace process”. According to the PM Office, Khan “also cautioned against those who could spoil the peace efforts”. The PM also reaffirmed Pakistan’s support for “a peaceful, stable, united, democratic, sovereign and prosperous Afghanistan”. He reiterated that a negotiated political settlement was the only way forward for enduring peace, stability and prosperity in Afghanistan. ● On November 17, Pakistan’s Foreign Office rejected as “fabrication” reports quoting Prime Minister Imran Khan as stating that Pakistan is facing pressure from the US to recognise Israel.

● On November 16, the Middle East Eye (MEE) quoted Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Imran ​ ​ Khan, as stating that the country is facing great pressure from the US to recognise Israel.

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According to the MEE report, PM Khan noted that the US is pressuring Pakistan, particularly in the wake of peace deals between several Arab states and Tel Aviv, but this will not be possible “unless there is a just settlement, which satisfies Palestine”. The MEE website quoted the PM as stating that pressure to recognise Israel was “extraordinary during the Trump stint”. According to the MEE report, when asked if any Muslim states were applying similar pressure on Pakistan, the PM appeared evasive, stating: “there are things we cannot say. We have good relations with them”. It also noted that the PM reiterated Pakistan’s official line on the Palestine question, stating that “Islamabad would continue to follow in Jinnah’s footsteps vis-à-vis Palestine”, indicating that unless there was justice for the Arab side, recognition of the Zionist state was off the table for Pakistan. ● On November 16, Pakistan reaffirmed its opposition to adding new permanent members in the UN Security Council. Citing New Delhi’s violations of its resolutions on Kashmir, Pakistan maintained that India does not qualify for a seat on the Council. India, along with three other countries, namely Brazil, Germany and Japan (known as the G-4), has been campaigning for permanent membership of the Council. Without naming India, Ambassador Munir Akram told the UN General Assembly that an aspirant state for a permanent seat in the Council had waged 20 wars since 1947 and fomented terrorism and instability across South Asia, especially against Pakistan. He stated: “We have clear and ample evidence of this state-sponsored terrorism”. The body is debating proposals for Security Council reform aimed at making it more representative, responsive, democratic and transparent but progress remains stalled. Ambassador Akram noted: “It (India) stands in violation of UN Security Council resolutions calling for final disposal of the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir through the exercise of self-determination by the people of the state in a free and fair plebiscite under UN auspices”. He added that India had deployed 900,000 troops to crush the Kashmiri peoples’ freedom struggle and that India is committing massive human rights violations. The Envoy further stated: “It threatens aggression against Pakistan and resorts to daily artillery and small arms fire targeting innocent civilians on our side of the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir”. He added: “This country has no qualification for membership of the Security Council permanent or even non-permanent”. ● On November 16, Pakistan’s Foreign Office called upon the international community to hold India accountable for its role in sponsoring terrorism against Pakistan and prevent it from doing so in the future. In its statement, the Foreign Office noted: “Use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy by India makes it culpable under international law, UN sanctions regime, and international counterterrorism conventions”. The statement added that it was the world’s responsibility to hold India to account and take steps against Indian nationals involved in patronage of terrorist entities. The statement came a day after the Indian Ministry of External Affairs rejected the

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dossier containing proof of Indian intelligence agencies’ patronage of terrorism in Pakistan. India termed the dossier a “futile anti-India propaganda exercise” that was “fabricated” and “lacks credibility”. Meanwhile, the Envoys of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US - were also briefed about the contents of the dossier. The Foreign Office noted: “We also expect the UN counter-terrorism bodies to proceed on the basis of concrete evidence provided by Pakistan and urge India to renounce terrorism as an instrument of state policy. The UN must also play its part in dismantling the Indian terrorist infrastructure, details of which have been provided in the dossier”. Further, Pakistan’s Foreign Office recalled that other international reports in the recent past, including FinCEN Leaks, revealed suspicious transactions carried out by Indian banks and their role in terrorism financing. The FinCEN Leaks demonstrate how India has been using its financial system for money laundering and other illegal activities, including terrorism financing, with impunity. The Foreign Office specifically highlighted India’s relocating of Daesh terrorists to the Pak-Afghan border: “The presence of ISIL and AQIS in India, as highlighted in recent UN reports, indicate that India is emerging as a hotbed of UN-designated international terrorist organisations and posing a great risk to the region”. While rejecting India’s denial of proofs contained in the dossier, the Foreign Office maintained that the dossier extensively documents India’s active role in planning, promoting, aiding, abetting, financing and executing terrorist activities against Pakistan. It further noted: “Fully exposed, India has typically resorted to sophistry, obfuscation and re-fabrication. Bland denials and regurgitation of old litany of charges, however, will not change facts”.

Pakistan (Internal) ● On November 29, Prime Minister Imran Khan visited the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) headquarters and praised the efforts of the agency for national security. According to a press release issued by the Prime Minister Office: “The Prime Minister appreciated the tireless efforts of the ISI for national security and expressed his satisfaction over professional preparedness”. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Minister for Planning and Development Asad Umar, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Nadeem Raza, Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi and Chief of General Staff Lt General Sahir Shamshad Mirza also accompanied the PM during his visit.

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Earlier, on November 28, during an interview with Express News, PM Khan noted that it was believed that the Army interfered in foreign policy matters but his government’s foreign policy was exactly as per the manifesto of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf. He stated: “There is no pressure on me and nor can anyone exert pressure on me”. He added that the Army knew everything about him and the others who had plundered money. Khan also stated that the Army had never asked him for appointing any person to any position and all those ex-military persons, including retired Lt General Asim Saleem Bajwa, working in different organisations were appointed on merit. ● On November 24, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa chaired a meeting of the Corps Commanders at the General Headquarters (GHQ) and reviewed the geostrategic, regional and national security environments. The participants expressed concern over Indian sponsorship of terrorism in Pakistan and renewed the pledge to safeguard the country against any misadventure. Moreover, the Corps Commanders also discussed internal security, situation along borders and the Line of Control (LoC), the atrocities in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) and “the positive progress in Afghan Peace Process”. According to the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), the participants showed “serious concern” over the “irrefutable evidence of Indian state-sponsored terrorism and efforts to destabilise Pakistan”. They observed that the “Indian efforts to sabotage the CPEC, involvement in financing and training of terrorist organisations for fomenting unrest in Pakistan, especially in AJK, Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan, are an affront to peace and security in the region”. While discussing the ceasefire violations by the Indian Army, the Corps Commanders vowed to do everything possible to protect the civilian population along the LoC from Indian firing, which deliberately targets civil populations. ● On November 24, the Federal Cabinet approved in principle two anti-rape ordinances that “change the definition of rape” and are aimed at awarding exemplary punishment to rapists, including chemical castration and hanging. The Government termed the approval of the Anti-Rape (Investigation and Trial) Ordinance 2020 and Pakistan Penal Code (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 a “big decision”. According to the Government, it was for the first time in the history of Pakistan that the definition of rape had been changed by incorporating “transgender” and “gang-rape” in it. The proposed law also prohibits the controversial “two-finger” test by doctors. During a press conference after the meeting, Information Minister, Shibli Faraz, stated: “The Federal Cabinet has approved anti-rape ordinances which change the basic definition of rape and suggest severe punishment for gang rape and hanging of rapists”. According to Faraz, as the ordinances were of great importance and incorporated punitive actions against the rapists, they were forwarded to the Law Division for further improvement. He expressed hope that the initiative would significantly reduce the number of rape incidents in the country by creating deterrence against the offence in

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the society. Federal Minister for Human Rights, Dr Shireen Mazari, tweeted: “Cabinet Committee on Disposal of Legislative Cases (CCLC) will now finalise (the ordinances) and it should become operational in next few days. It includes an expansive definition of rape, establishment of special court, anti-rape crisis cell, protection of victims and witnesses and prohibition of two-finger test”. Prime Minister Imran Khan chaired the meeting of the Cabinet, which also endorsed a recent decision of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) regarding restructuring and retrenchment in Pakistan International Airlines (PIA). The Cabinet also discussed the over Rs1 trillion Karachi Transformation Plan and the Prime Minister observed that the Plan, aimed at addressing basic civic issues of the metropolis, was not continuing at the pace he desired. Meanwhile, following the deferral of payment of Pakistan’s $2 billion loans by G-20 States, the Cabinet permitted the Economic Affairs Division to make new agreements of rescheduling of loans with 16 countries of the G-20. Further, to promote information technology in the country, the PM ordered the establishment of 50 technology zones in different cities, including Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, Haripur and Quetta. ● On November 23, Prime Minister Imran Khan approved the setting up of the National Intelligence Coordination Committee (NICC). The intelligence agencies have had at least two rounds of discussions on the issue after which the proposal was submitted to the Prime Minister for approval. The Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) would lead the new body, serving as its Chairman. The NICC is intended to serve as a mechanism to coordinate the over two dozen intelligence organisations in the country. The National Counter Terrorism Authority would also be part of the new structure. The move is part of the long-awaited reform of the intelligence apparatus, which aims at clarifying the role of respective agencies, improving their coordination, and optimising their capabilities. ● On November 16, complete but unofficial results of the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly (GBLA) Elections were declared for all 23 constituencies. According to the election results, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged as the single largest party, with ten seats, followed by seven independents. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) won three seats; the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) secured two; and the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM), which had a seat adjustment with the PTI, secured one seat. With the possible inclusion of four of six reserved seats for women, and two of three reserved seats for technocrats, the total number of seats for the PTI and its allies will be 16 in the 33-member GBLA, indicating that it will need the support of only one more winning candidate to form the government. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s two major opposition parties - the PPP and the PML-N - alleged that the election was rigged. The PPP issued a call for protests in the region against the

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alleged rigging, as PPP Chairman, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, warned Islamabad of “dire consequences if the rigging in elections is not reversed”.

India ● On November 29, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) “strongly” rejected criticism of its Kashmir policy by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The MEA implied that the OIC is being used by Pakistan for its campaign against India. A statement from the Ministry noted: “We strongly and categorically reject the factually incorrect, gratuitous and unwarranted references to India in resolutions adopted by the OIC at the 47th ​ CFM Session in Niamey, Republic of Niger, held on 27-28 November, 2020”. The MEA also stated: “It is regrettable that the OIC continues to allow itself to be used by a certain country, which has an abominable record on religious tolerance, radicalism and persecution of minorities, to indulge in anti-India propaganda”. ● On November 28, thousands of Indian troops guarded polling stations as the first direct elections were held in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), since New Delhi stripped the region of its semi-autonomy in 2019. The region has been under heavy security since the ruling Hindu-nationalist government imposed direct rule in August 2019. According to officials, nearly 52 percent of the 700,000 eligible voters cast ballots during the first of eight days of polling to elect local council members. Results are expected on December 22, 2020. While the councils have only limited powers, several Kashmiri political parties, including the influential National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), formed an alliance to use the election to campaign for the restoration of the disputed region’s political autonomy. The alliance accused the Government of harassing its candidates while helping those from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. However, the Election Commission denied the allegations. The current voting is part of a three-tier process in which residents directly elect their village representatives, who then vote to form development councils for clusters of villages called ‘Block Development Councils’. Members for the larger, third and top layer District Development Councils are also directly elected by the residents.

---Muhammad Shoaib

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SOUTH ASIA II Afghanistan

● On November 30, the Afghan Ministry of Defence claimed that the mastermind behind an attack on an Army base in Dah-Yak district of Ghazni province was killed in an airstrike in the Giro district.

● On November 29, at least 31 people, mostly security forces personnel, were killed and 24 more were wounded in a suicide attack in Ghazni province.

Citing Public Health Department officials from Ghazni, CNN reported that at least 40 Afghan soldiers had been killed in the attack. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the suicide car bombing close to a public protection unit. Afghan Army commandos were also stationed at the compound.

In two related incidents, on November 30, 2020, the Commander of the Afghan National Army’s ​ 3rd Infantry Brigade in Badghis was killed in Bala Murgha district of the province in a Taliban mortar attack. The Police Chief of Obe district in Herat was killed in a Taliban ambush on the same date.

Despite calls for a reduction in violence by the international community, attacks and chaos have been mounting in Afghanistan. On November 27, 2020, the Afghan Ministry of Defence stated that the Taliban continued to stage attacks on a daily basis in at least 22 provinces of the country over the past week. On November 28, 2020, Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, virtually interacted with members of the Afghan security forces serving on the frontlines in volatile regions of the country, and stated that the Afghan nation fully supports the armed forces. Meanwhile, at least 7 Taliban were killed in an airstrike in Imam Sahib district of Kunduz province. While the intra-Afghan talks remain in deadlock, the rise in violence could further jeopardise the peace process.

● On November 28, the Taliban’s spokesperson in Doha, Mohammad Naeem, stated that negotiators from both sides, on November 15, 2020, agreed upon procedural rules for direct talks.

Naeem stated that the procedure for Intra-Afghan negotiations was completed and finalised in 21 articles. However, the Afghan Government team maintained that the procedural rules are still not finalised. On November 25, 2020, the Afghan Presidential Palace denied any progress in the intra-Afghan talks. Since the commencement of the intra-Afghan talks in Doha on September 12, 2020, the negotiating teams have not yet been able to conduct a single round of direct talks due to their failure to reach a consensus on the procedural rules.

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● On November 27, Afghan Foreign Minister, Haneef Atmar, met with his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mahmoud Qureshi, on the sidelines of the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Niger, and discussed the Afghan peace process.

The two sides stressed the need for a reduction in violence in Afghanistan. They also discussed the recently held Geneva Conference, and the Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan’s trip to Kabul. The two sides reaffirmed their resolve to closely follow-up on PM Khan’s visit to Kabul and agreed to pursue cooperation in relevant fields under the agreed mechanism of the Afghanistan Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS). Qureshi emphasised the need to remain vigilant against “spoilers”, who did not wish to see peace in the region. He also emphasised the need to utilise tremendous potential in the economic and commercial fields that could be explored by securing peace in Afghanistan and enhancing regional connectivity.

● On November 27, quoting US and Afghan officials, the Washington Post reported that ​ ​ the United States closed at least 10 military bases across Afghanistan since the signing of a deal with the Taliban in February 2020.

The base closures were part of the complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan outlined in the deal. The report claimed that some bases had been completely handed over to Afghan security forces, while others, though vacated, left in place a way in which they could be occupied again in the future, if needed.

One US official told the Post that despite the withdrawal order, the United States would like to retain the ability to carry out airstrikes against the Taliban in defence of Afghan forces. US troops will also retain the ability to carry out some counterterrorism strikes against the Islamic State. The Trump Administration plans to reduce troop numbers from roughly 5,000 to 2,500 by January 15, 2021, days before President Trump leaves office.

The US’ European allies, Afghan officials, and regional countries, including Pakistan, have cautioned against a hasty withdrawal. NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, warned Washington that “an abrupt departure risks allowing Afghanistan to become a haven for terrorists.”

● On November 25, The Afghan Ministry of Industry and Commerce issued a statement, asserting that all barriers in the way of trade relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been settled over the past few weeks.

Afghan officials have expressed hope that with the removal of the obstructions, Afghanistan’s exports to Pakistan will double by next year. Officials of the Ministry stated that an Afghan delegation will soon visit Pakistan where they will discuss further enhancement of trade ties with the neighbouring country. The Head of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industries stated that trade delegations from the two countries, in their recent meetings,

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have agreed to resolve all their bilateral economic issues and enhance their joint efforts to further develop economic ties between the two States. Officials in Kabul expressed hope that Afghanistan’s exports to Pakistan would increase by $400 million in 2021.

● On November 25, the Afghan Presidential Palace rejected any progress in peace ​ negotiations with the Taliban and maintained that the deadlock in the talks has not broken so far.

Earlier, it was reported that both sides agreed to include the US-Taliban Agreement, UN endorsements for the Afghan peace process, commitments of the negotiating teams and the will of the Afghan people as the basis for upcoming negotiations. However, Presidential spokesperson, Sediq Sediqqi told reporters that the Taliban’s demand is “against the Constitution”. Sediqqi stated that peace is a priority for President Ghani and that “the Taliban should join the peace process as it is supported by the international community. The international community slammed the high level of Taliban violence in the country and expressed their concerns over civilian casualties and called for an immediate ceasefire in Afghanistan”. He added that the Taliban do not have global legitimacy, and that “the Taliban is a group for us”. The intra-Afghan talks remained stalled, as the negotiating parties could not agree upon procedural rules for the talks. Not a single round of direct talks have been held between the Taliban and the Afghan Government team.

● On November 24, representatives from several countries virtually addressed the Geneva Conference on Afghanistan and renewed their financial and political commitment to Afghanistan for another four years.

Addressing the opening ceremony of the conference in Geneva, Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, called upon the Taliban to agree to an immediate ceasefire to move the peace process forward and end the suffering of the people of Afghanistan. He added that the Afghan security forces successfully took over responsibility for security and counter-terrorism operations. Ghani noted that in Doha, the negotiating team of Afghanistan is working on establishing peace. He further maintained that the Afghan people, the Government and the international community share a vision of a sovereign, unified, democratic Afghanistan at peace with itself, the region and the world, capable of preserving and expanding the gains of the past two decades. While reiterating that Afghanistan needs connectivity, not charity, Ghani suggested five initiatives to help improve regional connectivity and enhance trade between regional partners and Afghanistan. The initiatives include support for speeding up regional projects; securing agreements either by the adoption of global standards or creation of regional standards on trade, transit, and transport; examining the gaps in critical infrastructure in Afghanistan; helping Afghanistan become a hub of green energy and industry; and cooperating with Afghanistan on its agenda of digital transformation. In his conclusion, Ghani contended that a strong regional consensus is essential to creating sustainable peace in Afghanistan.

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Foreign ministers of many countries, including Pakistan, Iran and Russia, also reiterated the need for a ceasefire and an end to violence in Afghanistan. US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, stated in his speech that the US remains committed to an enduring partnership with Afghanistan, and to helping the Afghan peace negotiations. Pompeo added that the US is looking to its international partners, especially Afghanistan’s neighbours and others in the region, to help the country move towards a more peaceful, secure, and sustainable future. Foreign donors pledged a projected $12 billion in civilian aid to Afghanistan over the next four years. Many made the aid conditional upon protection of human rights and making progress on peace talks. Top donors include the US, the European Union, Japan, UK, Canada, Holland, Australia, Turkey, Norway, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, Italy and France.

The Geneva Conference on Afghanistan 2020 was aimed at taking the country towards self-reliance, where the international community renewed its commitments to the development and stability of Afghanistan up to 2024. At least 100 countries and international organisations participated in the Conference.

● On November 24, twin explosions in the central Afghan province of Bamiyan killed at least 14 people and wounded 45 more.

● On November 21, a rocket attack on Kabul left at least 10 people dead and 51 wounded.

At least 14 rockets landed in various parts of Kabul, followed by two IED explosions in the city. The Taliban denied involvement in the attack. The attack drew widespread condemnation from Afghan authorities and the international community, including Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Defense Ministry of Afghanistan issued a statement noting that Taliban violence has expanded to more than 20 provinces of the country. US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ross Wilson, stated that Taliban violence is unacceptable, and reiterated that a significant reduction in violence is part of the deal signed between the United States and the Taliban.

● On November 22, Abdullah Abdullah, Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation stated that the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan should be dependent on the progress in the peace efforts with the Taliban.

Abdullah stated: “This is the decision by the US administration and we respect it. Had it been like, our preference would have been that with the conditions improving then this should have taken place. But the promise of the US current administration has been that the rest of the troops will stay there, and that decision will be based on conditions and the future administration will decide about it”. He added that there is a sort of bi-partisan understanding in the US that the country will certainly push for peaceful settlement in Afghanistan. Abdullah’s statement came as

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the US announced plans to reduce the presence of troops in Afghanistan to 2500 by mid-January, 2021.

● On November 21, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, met with peace negotiators from ​ Afghanistan and the Taliban in Doha and discussed the peace process and reduction in violence.

US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, was also present during the meetings. During their meeting with Pompeo, the Afghan Government team insisted on an end to violence and called for preserving Afghanistan’s achievements, especially in human ​ and women’s rights. The Taliban noted, in a statement, that in their meeting with Pompeo, they insisted on the implementation of the Doha Agreement, the removal of names of Taliban members from the UN blacklist, and the release of their prisoners. The US State Department, in a statement on Pompeo’s trip, observed that Qatar has been an important partner in fostering peace in Afghanistan and has played an invaluable role as host for Afghanistan peace negotiations. According to some sources, negotiators in Doha are close to an agreement on the procedural rules for the negotiations. Peace negotiator, Fawzia Koofi, stated that they expect to include a ceasefire as a priority in their agenda once the two sides agree on the procedural rules for the talks. According to sources close to the Taliban, violence would be reduced after the remaining prisoners of the Taliban are released and the names of their leaders are removed from the UN sanctions list. Since the commencement of intra-Afghan talks in September 2020, the two sides have not been able to finalise procedural rules for the talks.

● On November 20, Afghanistan’s Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah, met with Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in Istanbul and discussed the Afghan peace process and bilateral relations.

Abdullah stated during the meeting that Afghanistan desires Turkey’s continued support in the country’s efforts for achieving an enduring peace. He highlighted Turkey’s role in assisting Afghanistan in ensuring security, and economic and cultural assistance. Meanwhile, Erdogan stated that Turkey supports the ongoing peace efforts in Afghanistan and wishes to see an end to violence in the country. He added that the two countries’ relations have stood the test of time, strengthened by common culture and values. Abdullah traveled to Turkey as part of his regional tour to strengthen consensus on the Afghan peace process. Over the last month, he has visited Pakistan, Iran and Uzbekistan. Turkey wields a degree of religious and cultural influence over warring Afghan factions.

● On November 19, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed on a shared vision for peace and stability after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s first official visit to Kabul.

During his maiden visit, PM Khan met top Afghan Government officials, including President Ashraf Ghani, and discussed a number of important issues regarding the Afghan peace process,

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bilateral relations and cooperation between the two states on areas of mutual interest. During the joint press conference with President Ghani, PM Khan reiterated that Pakistan will do everything possible to reduce violence in Afghanistan. He added that Pakistan has played its part in bringing the Taliban to the dialogue table.

President Ghani deemed PM Khan’s visit to Kabul “historic”, and stated that Pakistan’s Prime Minister has come with a message that “violence is not the answer to the current situation”. Following the visit, a document titled “A Shared Vision between Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and Islamic Republic of Pakistan to Support Peace and Stability in Both Countries and the Wider Region”, was issued by the Foreign Ministries of both states. The document outlines modalities for future engagement between the two states. It comprehensively details engagement in all spheres, including between people to people, economic, security and political level. Both states not only pledged to maintain a predictable and transparent relationship but also committed to work together to identify and tackle enemies of peace, irreconcilables and those who undermine the peace process. Besides commitments to deepen and broaden regional connectivity, trade and business opportunities, a safe, time-bound and dignified return of Afghan refugees has also been incorporated into the document. Specific dates are set in the “implementation section” of the document for carrying out the pledges and commitments. It is also mentioned that Afghanistan will share with Pakistan a summary of the key issues discussed during the peace process. PM Khan’s visit appears to be part of Pakistan’s enhanced policy towards Afghanistan, whereby the country has been maintaining a balanced relationship with all Afghan factions. Islamabad’s maintenance of smooth ties with both the Afghan Government and the Taliban would further its role in the ongoing Afghan peace process.

● On November 19, the Taliban captured Maymay district in the northeastern province of Badakhshan.

According to lawmakers and provincial council members, several officials of the Afghan security forces were killed during the Taliban offensive. The District Head of Afghanistan’s Intelligence Agency, the NDS, was among those killed in the attack. The District Governor’s Headquarters was set ablaze by the Taliban after overrunning the district. The insurgent group also took all military equipment with them. Maymay is one of the strategic districts in Badakhshan that is located along the border with Tajikistan.

● On November 18, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, held a telephonic conversation with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, and discussed the Afghan peace process and adjustment vis-à-vis troop presence.

According to a presidential spokesperson, both sides discussed the Afghan peace process and NATO’s continued support to train, advise and assist the Afghan forces in their fight against terrorism. Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, stated that a premature troop

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withdrawal from Afghanistan may complicate peace talks between the Government in Kabul and the Taliban. He added: “The German Government is in touch with Washington and the NATO alliance and is looking into what consequences the US withdrawal would have for the around 1,200 German troops still deployed to Afghanistan as part of a larger NATO mission”. The remarks from top European officials surface as the US plans to withdraw around 2,000 troops from Afghanistan by mid-January 2021.

● On November 18, the Taliban welcomed the Pentagon’s announcement of a reduction of around 2,000 US troops in Afghanistan.

On November 17, 2020, the Pentagon announced a significant reduction in the number of US troops in Afghanistan. In his welcoming response, a Taliban spokesperson stated: “It is a good step and in the interest of the people of both countries. The sooner the foreign forces leave, the more the war will be prevented”. However, many Afghan Government officials, as well as regional countries, showed concerns that a hasty withdrawal could stir the Taliban and erode the gains made in the past.

● On November 17, Pakistan and Afghanistan held the 7th meeting of the Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Coordination Authority (APTTCA).

● On November 17, Pakistan and Afghanistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the exchange of electronic data for rapid and hassle-free movement of transit goods.

The MoU was signed after Advisor to the Prime Minister on Commerce and Investment, Razak Dawood, and Afghan Minister of Industry & Commerce, Nisar Ahmed Ghoryani, held talks in Kabul on ways to boost bilateral trade and remove hurdles in transit trade. Both sides also discussed opening of new corridors and ports of entry/Exit for Afghan Transit Trade to provide maximum relief for Afghan traders. Both sides showed their full commitment to streamline existing procedures to boost bilateral trade, transit facilities and investment which are essential for the prosperity of people living both sides of the border. The main agenda of the meeting was to review and renegotiate the Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) which is set to expire in February 2021. Pakistan and landlocked Afghanistan had signed a transit trade agreement in 1965, which was revised in 2010. Pakistan has been providing the transit facility to Afghanistan since then and both sides have now suggested amendments to the APTTA.

● On November 17, US Acting Secretary of Defence, Christopher Miller, announced that the US would be decreasing the presence of troops in Afghanistan to 2500 by mid-January, 2021.

While announcing the reduction in the level of troops, Miller deemed it as “President Trump’s plan to bring the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to a successful and responsible conclusion and to bring our brave service members home”. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General, Jens

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Stoltenberg, maintained that “the price for leaving too soon or in an uncoordinated way could be very high”. US Congressional Republicans also slammed President Trump’s plan on a swift reduction of US forces in Afghanistan, warning that it would be a gift to America’s enemies. With the continuation of fierce clashes between the Taliban and Government forces, and a spike in terror activity, the situation in Afghanistan is uncertain and volatile. On November 16, 2020, five Afghan security force personnel, including the Police Chief for Qaramqul district in Faryab province, were killed in a roadside bomb blast. Meanwhile, in a related incident, at least 12 policemen were killed and 10 were wounded in a Taliban attack in the northeastern province of Badakhshan. An abrupt withdrawal of US troops is expected to increase violence in Afghanistan.

● The New York Times reported, on November 16, that US President Donald Trump is ​ ​ pushing to accelerate withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.

● On November 16, NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, spoke to the new acting US Defence Secretary, Christopher Miller, about the Alliance’s commitment to stay in ​ ​ Afghanistan as long as necessary, amid speculation that President Donald Trump might order a rapid withdrawal of US troops from the country.

● On November 16, the Defence Ministry of Afghanistan noted, in a statement, that the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces are capable of defending the country if there is a withdrawal of international forces.

According to The New York Times report, the number of US forces’ personnel in Afghanistan would be cut by half from the current deployment, which stands at 4,500 troops. In October 2020, Trump stated, in a Twitter post, that he wanted all 4,500 US troops in Afghanistan home by Christmas. However, top military and national security aides advised against such a precipitous withdrawal. Trump eventually agreed to a smaller drawdown. It is further mentioned in the report that the US military commanders are anticipating a formal order be given by President Trump as early as this week to begin a further withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq before Trump leaves office on January 20, 2021. Although the Defence Ministry of Afghanistan claims that Government forces are capable of defending the country, many Afghan politicians, including President Ashraf Ghani, and almost all regional countries maintain that there should be an orderly withdrawal. This stance seems to be more plausible, keeping in view the upsurge in the degree of violence and terrorist activity in Afghanistan.

● On November 16, the Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah ​ Abdullah, stated that if the Taliban decide to continue the war and do not demonstrate ​ ​ flexibility during negotiations, it would indicate continuation of the war for many years.

Speaking to a local media outlet, Abdullah maintained that the February 29, 2020 US-Taliban Peace Agreement cannot be the basis for all topics that will be discussed in the intra-Afghan talks in Doha. The negotiations in Doha remain stalled over disputed points. The Taliban have

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been insisting that Hanafi jurisprudence be the religious basis for the talks and that the US-Taliban Agreement serve as the political basis for the negotiations. Abdullah highlighted that regional countries want peace in Afghanistan. Referring to his recent visits to Pakistan, Iran and Uzbekistan: “We have had a different past in our relations with these countries. They assured that they will not act like the past, will not have a preference in Afghanistan, and will accept the peace that is acceptable for Afghans”.

Sri Lanka

● On November 28, India, Sri Lanka and Maldives held a trilateral Maritime Security Dialogue in Colombo.

The dialogue was attended by Indian National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval; Maldives Defence Minister, Mariya Bibi; and Sri Lankan Defence Secretary, Maj Gen Kamal Gunaratne. Officials from the three States discussed the maritime environment in the region, intelligence cooperation, and efforts to jointly address other common challenges in the Indian Ocean region. Issues like terrorism, radicalisation, drugs, arms, human trafficking and cyber security were also discussed during the meeting, and the three nations decided to “improve intelligence sharing” to address these issues.

The three States met after a gap of six years. The long delay is attributed to the strained relations between India and the Maldives during the tenure of Abdulla Yameen. The first meeting of NSA-level officials of the three States took place in 2011, with the last one being held in March 2014 in New Delhi. Doval also called upon Sri Lankan President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and his brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Nepal

● On November 29, Chinese State Councillor and Defence Minister, Wei Fenghe, paid a visit to Nepal, two days after Indian Foreign Secretary, Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s trip to the plateau country.

Wei met with Nepal’s President, Bidya Devi Bhandari; Prime Minister; and Minister for Defence, KP Sharma Oli. They discussed economic cooperation amid the framework of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative and military exchanges. Wei noted that China firmly supports Nepal in its efforts to safeguard its national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will continue assisting Nepal’s military development. He also discussed the international and regional situations and bilateral diplomatic and military relations with Nepal’s Chief of Army Staff, General Purna Chandra Thapa.

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Indian officials pay frequent visits to Nepal. During the last two months, the Indian Army Chief and Chief of India’s intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), undertook visits to Nepal. During his two-day visit to Nepal, Shringla held meetings with his Nepali counterpart, Bharat Raj Paudyal; President Bhandari; and PM Oli. In these meetings, they discussed various aspects of bilateral relations.

Relations between India and Nepal hit a new low in the wake of India’s issuance of new political maps and claims over Nepali territory. Recent visits of Indian high officials to Nepal were aimed at resolving the land dispute and reviving bilateral relations.

Sources from the Indian intelligence department told the Washington Post that India’s high-level visits worried Beijing, propelling the latter to dispatch a high-ranking defence official to rebalance India’s influence on Nepal. According to Chinese experts, India is groundlessly accusing China of inflaming the border issue and stoking anti-India sentiment in Nepal when India itself has territorial disputes with Nepal in Kalapani, Lipu Lekh and Limpiyadhura. Nepal has called to settle the border issues via diplomatic channels based on history and evidence. China, however, is concerned about the rift within Nepal’s ruling party and its attitude towards the strategic alliance between India and the US.

---Kashif Hussain

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UNITED NATIONS

● On November 29, Stephane Dujarric, Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, ​ ​ condemned the assassination of Iranian Nuclear Physicist, Mohsen Fahrizade, Head of the Research and Innovation Organisation of Iran's Defence Ministry.

● On November 28, the Permanent Representative of Iran to the UN, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, addressed UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, and the UNSC over the assassination of Mohsen Fahrizade.

In his letter, Takht-Ravanchi claimed that Tehran was entitled to take all necessary measures in order to protect its interests in the current situation. While warning the US and Israel against any opportunistic actions against Iran, Takht-Ravanchi emphasised that the “Islamic Republic of Iran reserved the right to take all necessary measures in order to protect its people and its interests”. He stated: “What was clearly a state-sponsored assassination of our prominent scientist was also a clear violation of international law, designed to wreak havoc on our region”. He also indicated that there were “serious indications of Israeli responsibility” in the assassination of Mohsen Fahrizade. The Iranian Ambassador also urged the UN Secretary-General and the UNSC to condemn the assassination of the Iranian Nuclear Physicist. According to the Iranian Ministry of Defence, Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in a terrorist attack in Damavand, near Tehran, on November 27, 2020.

In a related development, on November 29, 2020, Stephane Dujarric, Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, condemned the assassination of Fahrizade, in response to a request by Iran for a reaction from Antonio Guterres on the incident. Dujarric stated: “Of course, we condemn any assassination or illegal murder”. He also urged Iran to exercise restraint and avoid any action which could lead to an escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

● On November 29, Edward Kallon, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, condemned a terrorist attack in Nigeria’s Borno state.

Edward Kallon stated: “It is the most violent direct attack against innocent civilians this year.” Kallon noted that the entire UN humanitarian community was working to provide life-saving and development assistance to the most vulnerable in Borno state. According to media reports, armed men on motorcycles attacked civilian men and women while they were harvesting crops in Koshobe village, near the provincial capital, Maiduguri. The reports noted that nearly 43 people were killed and many others were wounded and kidnapped, including women.

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● On November 29, UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, urged Israeli and Palestinian leaders to explore options in order to “restore hope” for a two-State solution to resolve a decades old conflict between Israel and Palestine.

While commemorating the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People, Antonio Guterres stated: “A host of factors continue to cause great misery, including: the expansion of illegal settlements, a significant spike in the demolition of Palestinian homes and structures, violence and continued militant activity”. Guterres emphasised that he was committed to supporting Palestinians and Israelis to resolve the conflict and end the Israeli occupation in line with relevant UN resolutions, international law and bilateral agreements in pursuit of the vision of two States - “Israel and an independent, democratic, contiguous and sovereign Palestine”.

The International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People is observed each year on November 29. In 1977, the UN General Assembly called for the annual observance of the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People by adopting a Resolution 32/40 B. It marks the day in 1947 when the UN General Assembly “adopted a resolution partitioning Palestine into an Arab State and a Jewish State”.

● On November 23, United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) noted that it was working with major airlines, shipping lines and logistics associations from around the world to deliver COVID-19 vaccines to over 92 countries, as soon as doses become available.

Etleva Kadilli, Director of UNICEF’s Supply Division, stated: “This invaluable collaboration will go a long way to ensure that enough transport capacity is in place for this historic and mammoth operation”. The UNICEF and the Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA), discussed ways to transport nearly 2 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines doses in 2021. The UNICEF is leading efforts to procure and deliver vaccines from manufacturers that have agreements with the COVAX Facility. COVAX is one of three pillars of the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, which was launched in April 2020 by the World Health Organisation (WHO), the European Commission and France in response to this pandemic.

● On November 19, UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, underscored the need to confront racism within the UN.

While noting that the UN had clear rules in place that prohibit and protect staff from all forms of discrimination, including racism, Antonio Guterres emphasised: “Let’s be honest: sometimes we have been slow to acknowledge the existence of racism inside the UN”. Guterres noted that racism challenged every government, every society, and every organisation, including the UN. The UN Secretary-General asserted that confronting racism required a special responsibility for personnel to examine and address racism and racial discrimination inside the UN. He indicated

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that it was dependent on the UN personnel and staff to examine long-held assumptions, and to question unconscious biases.

Guterres made these remarks his speech, during a discussion on racism in the workplace, initiating a series of panel events and dialogues for UN staff. Different UN duty stations will lead the dialogues around the world and will consider the different facets of racism, and how to strengthen prevention and response in this regard.

● On November 17, the UN released $100 million of emergency funding to avert the risk of famine in seven countries at risk of a hunger epidemic fuelled by conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs noted that Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen will each receive a share of $80 million from the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to counter the threat of famine. An additional $20 million would be provided to Ethiopia, where droughts could worsen an already fragile situation. CERF will distribute its emergency funds via cash and voucher programming. Mark Lowcock, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, warned that without immediate action, famine could be a reality in the coming months in parts of Burkina Faso, North-east Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen. He stated: “Famines result in agonizing and humiliating deaths. They fuel conflict and war. They trigger mass displacement. Their impact on a country is devastating and long lasting. No one should view a slide into famine as an inevitable side effect of this pandemic. If it happens it is because the world has allowed it to happen”.

● On November 16, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published its Report noting that a new trade bloc, known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), will play an important role in developing economies.

Some 15 countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement (RCEP), covering nearly a third of the global economy. The Report stated: “The agreement could help revive post-COVID economic growth, boost intra-regional trade and investment links at a time of global trade tensions, and provide a framework for further regional cooperation”. The RCEP provides greater opportunity to the signatory states to invest in each other’s states. According to the Report, the RCEP could also encourage firms to start up new projects within the bloc, stimulating investment for development.

Member States of the RCEP Agreement signed the same, on November 15, 2020, via videoconference due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. The RCEP aims at reducing trade barriers and making it easier for regional neighbours to conduct business and invest in one another’s

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development projects. Experts noted that the RCEP was a clear marker of China’s power and waning US influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

● On November 17, the UN General Assembly concluded its annual debate on UN Security Council reform, with delegates calling for increasing permanent and non-permanent membership in the UNSC.

The UNGA began its annual debate on the agenda item “Question of equitable representation on and increase in the membership of the Security Council and other matters related to the Security Council” on November 16, 2020. While opening the debate, UNGA President, Volkan Bozkir, urged Member States to seek the broadest possible consensus to resolve their differences on several matters. Bozkir stated: “This process can and should be an opportunity to correct the problems of structure and functioning of the Council”.

During the debate, a number of delegates called for reform to include expanding the UNSC beyond the current five permanent seats. Italy’s delegate, speaking on behalf of the Uniting for Consensus Group, advanced a proposal envisioning a 26‑seat UNSC, with 9 long-term permanent seats distributed among regional groups. The remaining seats would be held for two-year terms by the non-permanent members, with the opportunity for incumbents to seek re-election. Meanwhile, Russia and the UK supported the idea of expanding the organ to about 20 members, including the permanent membership of Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, also known as the Group of Four (G4). The French delegate also expressed support for the permanent membership of the G4. The US representative stated that his delegation is open to a modest expansion in permanent and non-permanent categories as long as it did not diminish the Council’s effectiveness or impact veto power. The Chinese delegate expressed concerns over the lack of representation between nations of the North and South. The representatives of China noted that reform must focus on equality between big and small States - strong and weak; rich and poor.

In response to expansion of permanent and non-permanent seats in the UNSC, several States, however, opposed the idea of expanding seats in the UNSC. The Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the UN, Ambassador Munir Akram, noted that adding new members in the UNSC will increase the possibility of paralysis. Akram stated: “We cannot throw oil on the fire”. Regarding proposals on the candidature of India in the UNSC, Akram emphasised that India stands in violation of UN Security Council resolutions calling for final disposal of the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir through the exercise of self-determination by the people of the state in a free and fair plebiscite under UN auspices. While noting that Pakistan had credible evidence against India for its state-sponsored terrorism inside Pakistan, he asserted that India had “no qualification for membership of the Security Council”. Meanwhile, Colombia also rejected the idea of increasing the UNSC members. Colombia’s delegate noted that the UNSC, with an increased number of members, would not ensure transparency.

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--- Moiz Khan

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About the Authors

Muhammad Shoaib is a Senior Research Fellow at the Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad. Prior to joining the SSII, he served as Associate Research Strategist at a private think tank: The Aleph Institute Islamabad. He has also remained an intern at the Inter Services Public Relations Directorate (ISPR). His areas of interest include Cyber-Security, Politics of Middle East & West Asia and Arms control & disarmament

Moiz Khan is a Research Fellow at Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad. Prior to joining the SSII, he worked as an intern at the Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs Directorate in the Strategic Plans Division, Pakistan. His area of research focuses on Arms Control & Disarmament and Nuclear Strategy.

Kashif Hussain is a Research Fellow at Strategic Studies Institute Islamabad (SSII). He has previously worked as an intern at Center for International Strategic Studies Islamabad (CISS). He was one of Pakistan’s youth ambassadors to Turkey under Turkey-Pakistan Youth Bridge Programme in March 2015. He has keen interest in geopolitics of South Asia.