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Effect of External Shocks on CIS Economies During Crisis of 2007–2009: Global and Regional Aspects 154 Mikhail Golovnin, Darya Ushkalova, Aleksandra Yakusheva

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Effect of External Shocks on CIS Economies During Crisis of 2007–2009: Global and Regional Aspects 154 Mikhail Golovnin, Darya Ushkalova, Aleksandra Yakusheva Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2010 Annual publication of the Eurasian Development Bank ББК 65.9 (2) 8 Е91 Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2010. – Almaty, 2010. – p. 368 ISBN 978-601-7151-07-2 Annual publication of the Eurasian Development Bank The Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution established to promote economic growth and integration processes in Eurasia. The Bank was founded by the intergovernmental agreement signed in January 2006 by the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan. In April 2009 Armenia has completed all the admission procedures and became the third full member of the Bank. Next, in June 2009 Tajikistan joined the Bank. The Agreement on Establishing the Eurasian Development Bank has come into force for Belarus, it is in the process of finalising the required admission procedures. Electric power, water and energy, transportation infrastructure and high- tech and innovative industries are the key areas for Bank’s financing activity. As part of its mission the Bank carries out extensive research and analysis of contemporary development issues and trends in the region, with particular focus on Eurasian integration. The Bank also hosts regular conferences and round tables addressing various aspects of integration. In 2008, the Bank launched an annual EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook (in English) and quarterly Journal of Eurasian Economic Integration (in Russian). Both publications are available online at www.eabr.org. The Bank’s Strategy and Research Department publishes detailed Industry and Country Analytical Reports and plans to undertake a number of research projects. The EDB System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration has become the first project in the pipeline. ISBN 978-601-7151-07-2 ББК 65.9 (2) 8 © Eurasian Development Bank, 2010 Address: Dostyk av., 220, Almaty, 050051, Republic of Kazakhstan, Telephone +7 (727) 244 40 44, ext. 6146 Fax +7 (727) 244 65 70, 291 42 63 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.eabr.org Coordinator: Gulnaz Imamniyazova, EDB Design, layout, and printing: RUAN Publishing Company The EDB’s special acknowledgements go to Stanislav Myong, Ekaterina Kopylova, Hannah Dyson and Jonathan Elliot for translating and editing materials for the Yearbook. No part of this publication may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form, including reprinting and recording of any kind, without due reference to this publication. The views expressed in this publication are those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Eurasian Development Bank. Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2010 Annual publication of the Eurasian Development Bank Edited by Evgeny Vinokurov, EDB Advisory Council: Sailau Baizakov, Insitute for Economic Research, Astana Michael Emerson, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels Valery Geets, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Kyiv Ruslan Grinberg, Insitute of Economy RAS, Moscow Ivan Korolev, Institute for World Economy and International Relations RAS, Moscow Luk Van Langenhove, United Nations University, Bruges Johannes Linn, Brookings Institute, Washington Liu Huaqin, Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Beijing Katlijn Malfliet, Catholic University of Leuven Ivan Samson, University of Grenoble II Leonid Vardomskiy, Institute of Economy RAS, Moscow Vladimir Yasinskiy, EDB, Almaty Contents Contents List of Figures and Tables 6 Notes on the Contributors 11 List of Abbreviations 15 Greetings Igor Finogenov, EDB Chairman 17 Sergei Glazyev, EurAsEC Deputy General Secretary 18 Vladimir Yasinskiy, EDB Head of Strategy and Research 19 Introduction 1. Accelerating Regional Integration: Directions for Research 20 EvgEny vinokurov 2009: Data and Events 2. Chronicle of Eurasian Regional Integration 2009 28 natalia MaqsiMchook 3. Main Macroeconomic Indicators of the CIS Region 97 yErzhan MoldabEkov 4. International and Regional Development Banks in Northern and Central Eurasia: Overview of Activities in 2009 110 zhanar sagiMbayEva Regional Integration and Regionalisation 5. EDB System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration: General Findings 136 EvgEny vinokurov, alExandEr libMan 6. Effect of External Shocks on CIS Economies during Crisis of 2007–2009: Global and Regional Aspects 154 Mikhail golovnin, darya ushkalova, alEksandra yakushEva EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2010 Contents 7. Emerging Regional Configuration in Central Asia: Remaining Traces of Unipolarity, Unstable Multipolarity and other Alternatives 175 yang chEng 8. From Central Asian regional integration to Eurasian integration space? – Changing dynamics of post-Soviet regionalism 206 ikboljon qoraboyEv Financial Integration and Common Currency 9. Rouble as Payment Currency of CIS 233 MarsEl salikhov, sErgEy agibalov 10. Integration of Financial Markets and Interaction Between Stock Exchanges of the CIS Member States 243 victoria Mishina Sectors and Issues 11. Economic Cooperation in Agricultural Sector of CIS Countries. EDB Report no. 7 262 Murat jadraliyEv 12. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Asia. EDB Report no. 6 293 sagit ibatullin, vladiMir yasinskiy, alExandEr MironEnkov 13. Ecological Efficiency of Russian and Kazakh Businesses: a Comparative Analysis 331 alEksandr Martynov Information for authors 356 Index 358 Eurasian Development Bank List of Figures and Tables List of Figures and Tables Figures Figure .1. Composition of SIEI 138 Figure .2. Consolidated indices of integration of post-Soviet countries with CIS-12 142 Figure .3. Consolidated indices of integration of five groups of countries within the post-Soviet space 143 Figure .. Dynamics of trade integration in the five regions 145 Figure .. Dynamics of labour migration integration 146 Figure .. Dynamics of energy integration 146 Figure .7. Dynamics of agriculture integration 147 Figure .8. Dynamics of education integration 148 Figure .9. Dynamics of macroeconomic convergence 150 Figure .10. Dynamics of monetary policy convergence 150 Figure .1. Real GDP dynamics in CIS in 2007–2009 158 Figure .2. Industrial production in CIS in 2007–2009 159 Figure 9.1. Share of total export and import trade payments transacted in roubles between Russia and other EurAsEC countries in 2008 239 Figure 9.2. Trade balance of Russia and other CIS countries in 2008 240 Figure 10.1. Currency structure of Belarus’ proceeds from exports in 2009 244 Figure 10.2. CIS member states’ service sector exports and imports classified under “travel” 246 Figure 10.3. Structure of cash exports by Belarusian banks in 2009 248 Figure 10.. Structure of spot currency market in Kazakhstan in 2008 248 Figure 10.. Structure of spot currency market in Ukraine in 2008 249 Figure 11.1. Structure of investments in Kazakhstan agribusiness in 2008 268 EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2010 List of Figures and Tables Figure 11.2. Structure of Russian investment in Ukraine 270 Figure 11.3. Structure of foreign investment in agriculture, forestry, and fishing in Kazakhstan 271 Figure 11.. Dynamics of imports of meat to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine 277 Figure 11.. Dynamics of agriculture integration in five post-Soviet groupings 280 Figure 11.. Trade in cereals between CIS countries in 2008 281 Figure 12.1. Average pace of increase in maximum and minimum air temperatures in Uzbekistan since 191 303 Figure 12.2. Changes in annual precipitation in Uzbekistan 304 Figure 12.3. Changes in annual precipitation in Tajikistan in 190–200 304 Figure 12.. Changes in precipitation by season in Tajikistan in 190–200 305 Figure 12.. Average multiannual changes in precipitation in Turkmenistan (solid line) and linear trend in 1931–199 306 Figure 12.. River runoff in a medium-water-content year and a share contributed by glaciers 307 Figure 12.7. Changes in volume of glaciers in Tajikistan 308 Figure 12.8. Atmospheric concentration of СО2 in 1000–2000 312 Figure 13.1. Energy efficiency dynamics of small businesses 337 Figure 13.2. Energy efficiency dynamics of small and medium businesses 337 Figure 13.3. Ecological efficiency dynamics of Russian businesses 338 Figure 13.. Ecological efficiency dynamics of Kazakh businesses 338 Figure 13.. Technology efficiency dynamics of Russian businesses 340 Figure 13.. Technology efficiency dynamics of Kazakh businesses 340 Figure 13.7. Energy efficiency dynamics in some industries in Russia 342 Figure 13.8. Energy efficiency dynamics in some industries in Kazakhstan 342 Figure 13.9. Ecological efficiency dynamics in some industries in Russia 342 Figure 13.10. Ecological efficiency dynamics in some industries in Kazakhstan 342 Figure 13.11. Technology efficiency dynamics in some industries in Russia 345 Figure 13.12. Technology efficiency dynamics in some industries in Kazakhstan 345 Eurasian Development Bank 7 List of Figures and Tables Figure 13.13. Efficiency dynamics by power generation type 345 Figure 13.1. Energy efficiency dynamics by resource type 345 Figure 13.1. Energy efficiency dynamics of basic processing 346 Figure 13.1. Energy efficiency dynamics in infrastructure 346 Figure 13.17. Ecological efficiency dynamics by power generation type 346 Figure 13.18. Ecological efficiency dynamics by resource type 346 Figure 13.19. Ecological efficiency dynamics of basic processing 347 Figure 13.20. Ecological efficiency dynamics in infrastructure 347 Figure 13.21. Technology efficiency dynamics by power generation type 347 Figure 13.22. Technology efficiency dynamics by resource type 347 Figure 13.23. Technology efficiency dynamics of basic processing 354 Figure
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