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Regional Land Use Allocation Models and Their Application to Planning

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Regional Land Use Allocation Models and Their Application to Planning REGIONAL LAND USE ALLOCATION MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO PLANNING by URS JOSEF THICKER Dipl. Ing. ETH, Swiss Institute of Technology, 1965 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE. REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in the School of Community and Regional Planning We accept this thesis as conforming to the required staadard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA May, 1969 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and Study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Department of Community and Regional Planning The University of British Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date April 30, 1969 iii ABSTRACT In the planning profession there is increasing recognition of the complex relationship of variables in an urban region which impede rational decision-making. In order to cope with this problem, quantitative models have been developed in recent years. It is the purpose of this study to investigate and evaluate the present stage of model- building as it applies to regional planning. It is hypothesized that the application of land use allo• cation models is a desirable aid for rational decision• making in regional planning. The study begins with an outline of the theoretical basis for building land use allocation models: economic location theory and social physics. Economic location theory is mainly concerned with finding criteria for a rational choice of the location for a firm or a household. In this context, the concept of economic rent is discussed. In order to give explanations of the land use patterns within a region the basic notion in respect to agricultural pro• duction is developed and then extended to the urban land iv uses. The second approach to land use allocation models, social physics, is mainly based on statistical regulari• ties in explaining human mass behavior. The most commonly employed concept is the gravity principle, which is an attempt to apply Newton's physical law of gravitation to social, mass behavior. This concept is very often applied in community and regional planning and has yielded accept• able results in a great number of studies. In part three the most important elements and steps in the process of model-building are discussed, including rules or standards which should be considered by a model- builder. First of all, a 'wide range of types of models are examined in order that the proper model may be selected for an actual regional planning problem. The design process is also discussed in some detail and it is shown that there is evidence of fundamental criteria for model building. Part four is concerned with three selected existing regional land use allocation models. The model of the Pittsburgh Region was the first operational model on a regional level and its ingenuity influenced numerous model-builders. One of the most salient findings of this model, which is mainly based on social physics, relates to the fact that the gravity principle seems to have enough flexibility to comprehend the spatial pattern of land uses within an urban region. V The model of the State of Connecticut is based on the shift-analysis framework and distributes three population and six employment groups to the 169 towns of-the State of Connecticut. Its basic feature is the ability to repli• cate the structure of a region as large as a state and it is therefore of great interest as a macro-approach. The structure of the model is relatively simple and the data requirements are not intensive. Hence, it seems that such a model framework could serve as a sound basis for models in other study areas. The Bay Area Simulation Study is one of the most recent models. It introduces a high level of disaggregation and assumptions which are based, to some extent, on economic location theory. Hence, it can be said that its basic concept relates to the working mechanism of the market process. The structure of the model is based on a number of interrelated submodels, including a set of employment allocation models and a set of residential allocation models. The final part of this study relates the findings of the preceding parts to regional planning. It is shown that regional planning is fundamentally a locational problem. In addition, some experiences of model application by planning agencies are discussed. These experiences emphasize the fact that, the essential feature of land use allocation models is to improve the rationality of decision-making. By vi comparing the advantages of models with the principal difficulties in application it is then possible to derive the final conclusion that land use allocation models are a desirable aid for rational decision-making in regional planning. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT - iii LIST OF FIGURES . ix LIST OF APPENDICES x ACKNOWLEDGEMENT S xi 1. INTRODUCTION .1 1.1 The Problem 1 1.2 Purpose and Scope of this Study 4 1.3 Hypothesis 6 1.4 Definitions 6 1.5 Organization of the Remainder 7 2. APPROACHES TO REGIONAL ALLOCATION OF ACTIVITIES 10 2.1 Economic Location Theory............. 11 2.1.1 Agricultural Rent and Land Use 13 2.1.2 Urban Land Uses . 16 2.1.3 General Equilibrium 20 2.2 Social Physics 23 3 . ELEMENTS OF MODEL BUILDING . .' 33 3.1 Typology of Models 33 3.2 Design of a Model 41 3.2.1 The Variables and their Relevance 43 3.2.2 The Level of Aggregation 44 3.2.3 Formulation of the Mathematical Relationship 46 viii 3- 3 Calibration and Testing of a Model 50 4. SELECTED REGIONAL LAND USE MODELS 58 4.1 The Model of the Pittsburgh Region by Lowry .. 59 4.1.1 The Concept of the Model 59 4.1.2 The Structure of the Model 61 4- .1.3 Interpretation of the Model 66 4.1.4 Calibration of the Model 67 4.1.5 Testing of the Model '. 71 4.1.6 Evaluation 72 4.2 The Connecticut Model 73 4.2.1 Formulation of the Model 74 4.2.2 The Structure of the Model 76 4.2.3 Interpretation . .... 79 4.2.4 Calibration and Testing 81 4.3 The Bay Area Simulation Study 83 4.3.1 . Formulation of the Model 84 4.3.2 Employment Location Submodels 85 4.3.3 Residential Location Submodel 92 4.3.4 Appraisal ' 94 4.4 Conclusions 96 5 REGIONAL PLANNING AND LAND USE ALLOCATION MODELS 101 5.1 Regional Planning and the Importance of Land Use Allocation Models 101 5.2 Advantages of Land Use Allocation Models 103 5.3 Difficulties of Applications 106 5.4 Conclusions 108 BIBLIOGRAPHY 113 APPENDICES 119 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Agricultural bid rent function for one crop ... 15 2 Agricultural bid rent functions for two crops . 15 3 Bid rent functions for urban land uses 21 4 Bid rent functions for a hierarchy of centers . 21 5 Cumulation of errors 4-9 6 Structure of a chain model 49 7 Proposed structure of an improved model 49 8 Information flows in the Pittsburgh Model 62 9 Differential shift and proportional share 75 10 Structure of the Bay Area Simulation Study 85 11 Retail allocation flow diagram • ••• 89 X LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix Page 1 Cumulation of Errors 119 2 Variables and Parameters of the Pittsburgh Model 122 3 Control Totals and Structural Parameters of the Pittsburgh Model- 124 4 Employment Groups for the BASS Model 126 xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my thanks to the many people who contributed to the completion of this thesis. Dr. H. Peter Oberlander, Director of the School of Community and Regional Planning deserves particular thanks for his initial encouragement to investigate this topic and his continuous interest in my planning education. Grateful appreciation is also extended to Dr. H. Craig Davis and Dr. V. Setty Pendakur for the concern, ad-vice and constructive criticism they have offered during the preparation of this thesis. I am also indebted to my friend and colleague Fraser L. Manning who with great patience assisted with the final English style. But above all, thanks has to be expressed to the Canada Council which through a scholarship made my studies here in Canada possible. Finally, my greatest indebted• ness is to my wife Insa who always helped during my studies and brought my scribble of this thesis into final form .and -gestalt. - 1 - 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Problem Activities by men, social groups, communities or entire societies are determined by a purpose or a number of purposes. We act in order to achieve goals. But there are always alternative ways to achieve them and one has to be chosen. This selective decision is fundamental in human life, and therefore can also be seen in the context of planning what is "designing a course of action to achieve ends."1 In community and regional planning, designing or selec• ting a course of action is impeded by several circumstances. First of all, goals have to be formulated. This is extremely difficult because groups of human beings are limited in their ability to agree on common goals, to communicate and p to cooperate. Apart from goal setting there is increasing recognition that a course of action influences a great number of variables and "planners are now prisoners of the discovery that in the city [and in the region] everything - 2 - affects everything else."J A third difficulty is the limitation of time in dealing with a complex and continu• ously changing system such as the city or the region.
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