Urban Development Models

SPECIAL REPORT 97 URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODELS HIGHWAY RESEARCH BOARD NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING SPECIAL REPORT 97 URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODELS Proceedings of a Conference Held June 26-30,1967 Dartmouth College Hanover, New Hampshire Subject Area 83 Urban Land Use viKc. yiGHWAY RESEARCH BOARD DIVISION OF ENGINEERING NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES^NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Wadiington, D.C., 1968 PuUication 1628 c, Price: $7.00, Paper Cover $8.00, Hard Cover Available from Highway Research Board National Academy of Sciences 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington. D.C. 20418 HIGHWAY RESEARCH BOARD Officers and Members of the Executive Committee 1968 OFFICERS DAVID H. STEVENS OSCAR T. MARZKE Chairman First Vice Chairman D. GRANT MICKLE W. N. CAREY, JR. Second Vice Chairman Executive Director Executive Committee LOWELL K. BRIDWELL, Federal Highway Administrator, U. S. Department of Transpor• tation (ex officio) A. E. JOHNSON, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway Officials (ex officio) GEORGE C. SPONSLER, Executive Secretary, Division of Engineering, National, Research Council (ex officio) J. B. McMORRAN, Commissioner, New York Department of Transportation (ex officio. Past Chairman 1966) EDWARD G. WETZEL, Associate Consultant, Edwards and Kelcey, Newark, New Jersey (ex officio, Past Chairman 1967) DONALD S. BERRY, Chairman, Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University J. DOUGLAS CARROLL, JR., Executive Director, Tri-State Transportation Commission, New York City WiLUAM L. GARRISON, Director, Center for Urban Studies, University of Illinois at Chicago Circle Campus SIDNEY GOLDIN, Vice President of Marketing, Astatic Petroleum Corporation, New York City WiLUAM J. HEDLEY, Clayton, Missouri GEORGE E. HOLBROOK, Vice President, E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company EUGENE M. JOHNSON, Chief Engineer, Mississippi State Highway Department PYKE JOHNSON, Retired THOMAS F. JONES, JR., President, Umveisity of South Carolina LOUIS C. LUNDSTROM, Director, Automotive Safety Engineering, General Motors Tech• nical Center OSCAR T. MARZKE, Vice President, Fundamental Research, 17. S. Steel Corporation D. GRANT MICKLE, Vice President, Automotive Safety Foundation LEE LAVERNE MORGAN, Executive Vice President, Caterpillar Tractor Company CHARLES E. SHUMATE, Chief Engineer, Colorado Department of Highways WILBUR S. SMITH, Wilbur Smith and Associates, New Haven, Connecticut R. G. STAPP, Superintendent, Wyoming State Highway Commission DAVID H. STEVENS, Chairman, Maine State Highway Commission JOHN H. SWANBERG, Chief Engineer, Minnesota Department of Highways K. B. WOODS, GOSS Professor of Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University Editorial Staff EARLE W. JACKSON STEPHEN MONTGOMERY BEATRICE G. CROFOOT Senior Editor Assistant Editoi Production Manager 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington, D. C. 20418 The opinionb and conclubionb exprebbca in thib publication aie thobe of the authoib and not necessarily those of the Highway Rebearch Board DEPARTMENT OF URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING Pyke Johnson, Chairman Washington, D. C. HIGHWAY RESEARCH BOARD STAFF James A. Scott COMMITTEE ON LAND USE EVALUATION (As of December 31, 1967) John R. Hamburg, Chairman Creighton-Hamburg Incorporated, Delmar, New York Frederick T. Aschman Walter G. Hansen Kenneth J. Schlager Robert E. Barraclough Biitton Harris Morton Schneider F. Stuart Chapin, Jr. George C. Hemmens David R. Seidman Salvatore V. Ferrera Donald M. Hill Joseph R. Stowers, Secy. Aaron Fleisher C. David Locks R. J. Wheeler William L. Garrison David D. Longmaid Lowdon Wingo, Jr. Ronald S. Graybeal Ira S. Lowry Richard D. Worrall David A. Grossman John K. Mladinov PREFACE This volume constitutes the record of a Conference on Urban Development Models held in June 1967 at Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire. The Conference was sponsored by the Bureau of Public Roads, the Depart• ment of Housing and Urban Development, and the Automotive Safety Foun• dation. The Conference was conducted by the Highway Research Board. Organization and direction of the Conference was the general responsibility of the Land Use Evaluation Committee of the Department of Urban Transporta• tion Planning of the Highway Research Board, and the specific responsibility of an Advisory Committee consisting of Britton Harris, Chairman, Charles H. Graves, Walter G. Hansen, Joseph R. Stowers, and Lowdon Wingo, Jr., and ex officio members John Hamburg, Chairman of the Land Use Evaluation Committee and George C. Hemmens, Conference Secretary. James A. Scott of the Highway Research Board assisted as staff liaison. With several exceptions the papers in this volume were originally prepared for and served as a basis for subsequent discussion at the Conference. The ex• ceptions are the paper by Britton Harris summarizing the Conference, and the papers by John R. Hamburg, Roger L. Creighton and Robert S. Scott and David Boyce which were commissioned by the Conference Advisory Commit• tee to complement Conference discussion and achieve comprehensive coverage of issues related to the development and use of models in urban planning. The organization of this volume follows generally the organization of the Conference except that papers presented at sequential Conference sessions have been grouped under common themes to which they are addressed. Pre• pared discussions of these papers, where available, are presented with the pa• pers. General, open discussion at the Conference has been summarized, where appropriate, under these general themes. One of the objectives of the Confer• ence was to promote free discussion of issues raised in the presentations, and drawn from the agency and research experience of all participants. It has not been possible to reproduce all of that discussion in this report. The sense of the discussion has been excellently reported by Britton Harris in his paper. The summaries of the discussion presented in the report attempt to document the principal comments, concerns, agreements, and disagreements of the parti• cipants, and have been selected and condensed from the Conference tran• script. The editor accepts responsibilities for any errors or misinterpretations which may have resulted, and begs the indulgence of the participants. George C. Hemmens, Editor May 1968 CONTENTS PART I. INTRODUCTION CONFERENCE SUMMARY AND . RECOMMENDATIONS Britton Harris 3 OPENING STATEMENTS Edward H. Holmes 18 William B. Ross 21 AGENCY EXPECTATIONS FROM PREDICTIVE MODELS Charles J. Zwick 24 PART II. PLANNING. DECISION-MAKING, AND THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROCESS PLAN EVALUATION METHODOLOGIES: SOME ASPECTS OF DECISION REQUIREMENTS AND ANALYTICAL RESPONSE Wilbur A. Steger and T. R. Lakshmanan 33 COMMENTS: Lyle C. Fitch 72 Charles Graves 74 ACTIVITY SYSTEMS AS A SOURCE OF INPUTS FOR LAND USE MODELS F. Stuart Chapin, Jr 77 COMMENTS: Frederick T. Aschman 95 Daniel R. Mandelker 96 George T. Lathrop 100 TOWARDS A THEORY OF THE CITY Charles Leven 102 COMMENTS: Stephen Putman Ill Daniel Brand 112 GENERAL DISCUSSION OF PART II 116 PART III. DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION OF MODELS SEVEN MODELS OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT: A STRUCTURAL COMPARISON Ira S. Lowry 121 COMMENTS: Brian Barber 146 Alan Black 149 David R. Seidman 150 DISCUSSION 154 ACCESS AND LAND DEVELOPMENT Morton Schneider 164 THE QUALITY OF DATA AND THE CHOICE AND DESIGN OF PREDICTIVE MODELS Wflliam Alonso 178 CONSTRUCTION OF MODELS Kenneth Schlager 193 Britton Harris 196 T. R. Lakshmanan 199 Boris Pushkarev 202 DISCUSSION 205 PART IV. USE OF MODELS SURVEY OF PLANNING AGENCY EXPERIENCE WITH URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODELS, DATA PROCESSING, AND COMPUTERS George C. Hemmens 219 EVALUATION OF LAND USE PATTERNS John R. Hamburg, Roger L. Creighton and Robert S. Scott 231 COMMUNICATION IN THE FIELD OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODELS David E. Boyce 239 APPENDICES APPENDIX A Agency Description of Urban Development Models ... 253 APPENDIX B Roster of Participants 263 PART I Introduction CONFERENCE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS BRITTON HARRIS * A major objective of the Conference on Urban Development Models was a state-of-the-art evaluation of land use modeling. The fundamental approach, however, was designed to be more than a didactic review of the past work; the aim was to discuss and open up new perspectives. This paper reviews the background of the Conference, summarizes the conclusions reached, and pre• sents the Conference recommendations. The Dartmouth Conference on Urban Development was held against a background of rapid but uncoordinated growth in the field of land use and ur• ban development modeling. The expansion of "modeling" in the physical, so• cial, and management sciences has had a long and respectable history, but its more recent explosion is largely a consequence of the advent of the computer. Transportation planning had employed an expanded battery of models which were largely developed in the decade 1945-55, before computers became available, and was consequently in the position to take major advantage of the computer facility, beginning in the middle of the last decade. Transportation- based modeling and planning were given a distinguished landmark appraisal in the publication of the May 1959 issue of the Journal of the American Insti• tute of Planners, under the editorship of Alan M. Voorhees. Land use planning models developed, first of all, as an adjunct of transpor• tation planning. This position eventuated because metropolitan transportation studies had both need and resources for the preparation

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