Inventory of Land Use and Land Use Practices in the Canadian Great Lakes Basin

INVENTORY OF LAND USE AND LAND USE PRACTICES IN THE CANADIAN GREAT LAKES BASIN

REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL REFERENCE GROUP ON GREAT LANES POLLUTION FROM LAND USE ACTIVITIES

Volume V: Canadian Lake Ontario Basin

1977 INVENTORY OF LAND USE AND LAND USE PRACTICES IN THE CANADIAN GREAT LAKES BASIN with Emphasis on Certain Trends and Projections to 1980, and Where Appropriate, to 2020.

To be used as portion of the Canadian Task B Report on GREAT LAKES POLLUTION FROM LAND USE ACTIVITIES BY the International Joint Commission. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This report was assembled by many people working on the Canadian portion of the Task B Study planned through the Pollution From Land Use Activities Reference Group (PLUARG) of the International Joint Commission.

Canadian participants included:

Mr. John Batteke, Environment Canada Mr. J.E. Brubaker, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food Mr. Robert G. Code, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Mr. Dale Coleman, Environment Canada Mr. D.M. Gierman, Environment Canada Mrs. Elsie MacDonald, Agriculture Canada Dr. Harvey Shear, Canada Centre for Inland Waters Mrs. Anne Sudar, Environment Canada

The material for these reports was assembled from existing census and other data available in 1972 - 1975.

Five volumes were prepared, one each for Lakes Superior, Huron, Erie and Ontario, and a summary volume for the Canadian portion of the Great Lakes Basin.

ii TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page Number ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii

LIST OF TABLES vi

LIST OF FIGURES viii

PREFACE ix

SUMMARY 1 Physical Fabric 1 Major Land Uses 1 Materials Usage 1 Future Trends 2

INTRODUCTION 3 Introduction 3 Detailed Study Plan 3 Purpose 4

1 PHYSICAL FABRIC 5 Canadian Portion of Lake Ontario Basin 5 Land Resources 5 Geology 5 Topography and Soils 5 Climate 7 Hydrology 7 Surface Water 7 Vegetation Zones and Wildlife 8 Population 9 Resource Use and Development 9 Agriculture 9 Forestry 12 Mining 12 Recreation 12 Source Materials 13

2 MAJOR LAND USES 15 Introduction 15 Land Use Classification System 15 Introduction 15

iii Page Number Results 17 Sub-Basin 10: Western Lake Ontario 17 Sub-Basin 11: Trent-Moira Rivers 17 Source Materials 21

3 SPECIALIZED LAND USES 23 Introduction 23 Disposal Operations 23 Mine Tailings Disposal Sites 23 Waste Disposal Sites 24 Introduction 24 Sub-Basin 10: Western Lake Ontario 24 Sub Basin 11: Trent-Moira 37 Summary 37 Erosion 38 Lakeshore Erosion 38 Riverbank Erosion 39 Intensive Livestock Operations 39 High Density, Non-Sewered Residential Areas 40 Introduction 40 Sub-Basin 10: Western Lake Ontario 40 Sub Basin 11: Trent-Moira 40 Summary 40 References 59

4 MATERIALS USAGE 61 Introduction 61 Agricultural Pesticides 61 Insecticides 61 Fungicides 61 Herbicides 63 Commercial Fertilizers and Agricultural Manures 63 Commercial Fertilizers 64 Agricultural Manures 65 Combined Fertilizers and Manures 66 Road Salts 66 Summary 67 Source Materials 69

iv Page Number

5 FUTURE TRENDS 71 Population 71 Economic Activity 71 Major Land Uses 75 Agriculture 75 Urban 77 Definitions 77 Summary 79 Specialized Land Use Forecasts 80 Waste Disposal 80 Erosion 80 Intensive Livestock Operations 80 High Density, Non-Sewered Residential Areas 81 Recreational Lands 81 Materials Usage Forecasts 81 Pesticides 81 Fertilizers 82 Road Salt 84 Summary 84 References 85

v LIST OF TABLES

Table Page Number

1 Watershed Divisions in the Canadian Portion 8 of the Lake Ontario Basin

2 Economic Activity in the Canadian Portion 11 of the Lake Ontario Basin, 1972

3 Land Use Classification Definitions 15

4 Major Land Uses in the Western Lake Ontario 18 Sub-Basin (Sub-Basin 10)

5 Major Land Uses in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin (Sub-Basin 11) 19

6 Mine Tailings Disposal Sites in the Canadian 23 Portion of the Lake Ontario Basin

7 Waste Disposal Sites in the Western Lake Ontario 25 Sub-Basin (Sub-Basin 10)

8 Waste Disposal Sites in the Trent-Moira Sub-basin (Sub-Basin 11) 29

9 Waste Disposal Summary for the Canadian Portion 37 of the Lake Ontario Basin

10 Reaches in the Canadian Portion of the Lake Ontario 38 Basin with Erosion Rates Greater Than 0.5 m3/m/m/yr

11 Intensive Livestock Operations in the Canadian 39 Portion of the Lake Ontario Basin

12 High Density, Non-Sewered Residential Areas in the 41 Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin (Sub-Basin 10)

13 High Density, Non-Sewered Residential Areas in the 49 Trent-Moira Rivers Sub-Basin (Sub-Basin 11)

14 Use of Pesticides in the Canadian Portion of the Lake Ontario Basin 62

15 Farm Land Use in the Canadian Portion of the Lake Ontario Basin 63

vi Table Page Number

16 Livestock Numbers in the Canadian Portion 64 of the Lake Ontario Basin

17 Total Nutrients from Commercial Fertilizer 64

18 Estimated Annual Usage of Fertilizer Nutrients 65

19 Annual Total Nutrients from Agricultural Manure 65

20 Estimated Annual Production of Manure Nutrients 66

21 Estimated Annual Total Nutrients from Fertilizer 66 Usage and Manure Production

22 Use of Road Salt in the Canadian Portion of the 67 Lake Ontario Basin

23 Population Projections for the Canadian Portion 71 of the Lake Ontario Basin

24 Economic Activity Projections for the Lake Ontario 74 Basin, Series A

25 Agricultural Land Use Forecast for the Canadian Portion 76 of the Lake Ontario Basin

26 Urban Land Forecasts for the Canadian Portion of the 78 Lake Ontario Basin

27 Conversion of Other Land Uses to Urban Use in the 79 Canadian Lake Ontario Basin Cities, 1966-1971

28 Major Land Use Projections for the Canadian Portion 79 of the Lake Ontario Basin, 1972-2020

29 Forecast of Annual Agricultural Pesticide Use in the 82 Canadian Portion of the Lake Ontario Basin

30 Forecast Weight of Nutrients in Commercial Fertilizer 83 Used by Agriculture in the Canadian Portion of the Lake Ontario Basin

vii LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Page Number

1 Canadian Portion of the Lake Ontario Drainage Basin 6

2 Population in the Canadian Portion of the 10 Lake Ontario Basin, 1901 - 1971.

viii

PREFACE

As its title suggests, this volume presents an Inventory of Land Use and Land Use Practices in the Canadian Great Lakes Basin, with emphasis on certain trends and projections to 1980 (and to 2020 where appropriate). The report integrates several studies by contractors and sub-contractors. These studies were part of the Canadian Task B effort for the Great Lakes Pollution from Land Use Activities Reference Group, International Joint Commission.

The Task B report for the Canadian part of the Gr. eat Lakes Basin is contained in five volumes:

Volume I Canadian Great Lakes Basin Summary Volume II Lake Superior Basin Volume III Lake Huron Basin Volume IV Lake Erie Basin Volume V Lake Ontario Basin

Knowledge of present and future land use and land use practices are important as background for evaluating and controlling non-point sources of water pollution. This report describes and quantifies, as appropriate, the Canadian Great Lakes Basin's geology, soils, minerals, climate, surface and ground water, vegetation, wildlife, and economic and demographic characteristics. It inventories available -information on waste disposal operations, lakeshore and riverbank erosion, high-density non-sewered residential areas and recreational land uses, as well as materials application of agricultural chemicals, fertilizers, animal wastes and salts on highways. Finally, future trends and projections are shown for the above categories.

This Canadian Great Lakes Basin Summary and each of the four Canadian lake basin volumes have been reviewed by Joint Task Group B, whose comments were considered before approval for final report development. This study forms a Canadian contribution to the Task B effort of the Study on Great Lakes Pollution from Land Use Activities.

The study discussed in this report was carried out as part of the efforts of the Pollution from Land Use Activities Reference Group, an organization of the International Joint Commission, established under the Canada-U.S. Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1972. Findings and conclusions are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Reference Group or its recommendations to the Commission.

SUMMARY

PHYSICAL FABRIC

The Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin occupies a land area of approximately 2,950,000 ha (7.3 million acres), comprised of two major sub-basins: Sub-Basin 10, Western Lake Ontario; and Sub-Basin 11, Trent-Moira Rivers. The northern portion of the basin is underlain by the Canadian Shield, and the remainder is underlain by sedimentary bedrock of the Paleozoic era. The climate varies with latitude and proximity to the lake, with the Niagara Fruit Belt having a climate mild enough for the production of tender fruits. The southern part of the basin lies in the Deciduous Forest Region and the northern part in the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Forest Region. The Lake Ontario Basin is the most populous and economically active of the four other Canadian Great Lakes basins.

MAJOR LAND USES

Agriculture is the dominant land use in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin, covering 49 percent of the land area. Forestry is second, with 43 percent, while urban uses constitute 5 percent of the land area.

SPECIALIZED LAND USES

There are thirteen mine tailings disposal sites in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin, one of which is associated with an active mine.

There are 303 waste disposal sites in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin, covering a land area of 2,885 ha (7130 acres) and receiving 17,000 t/d (37 million lb/d) of waste.

Lakeshore erosion problems occur along 111 km (69 miles) of the shoreline.

There are 60 intensive poultry operations, 132 intensive cattle operations, and 177 intensive swine operations in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin.

About 6 percent of the population lives in high-density, non- sewered residential areas.

MATERIALS USAGE

Agricultural pesticides usage in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin amounts to approximately 241.7 t/a (531,750 lb/a) of insecticides, 234.5 t/a (514,840 lb/a) of fungicides and 326.6 t/a (718,620 lb/a) of herbicides.

1 The estimated annual nutrient contributions from combined commercial fertilizer and agricultural manure usage are 36,450 t (80.2 million lb) nitrogen; 20,480 t (45 million lb) phosphorus (P2O5) and 33,400 t (73 million lb) of potassium (K2O).

Road salt usage amounts to about 741,620 t/a (1.6 billion lb/a).

FUTURE TRENDS

The population in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin may double over the next fifty years and economic output may increase by a factor of eight. Major land use projections for the Canadian portion of the basin indicate that agricultural land area will decline faster than urban land area will increase, resulting in small increases in forest and 'other' land uses. The future predicted pattern and extent of specialized land uses in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin will be more a function of interacting social, technological, and legislative factors than of population and economics. Pesticide forecasts predict a decline in usage under an optimistic yield scenario and an increase in usage under a pessimistic scenario. Fertilizer forecasts predict a continued rapid increase until the year 2000, followed by a decline in usage. The use of road salt is predicted to increase from 741,620 t (1.6 billion lb) in 1972 to 1,207,789 t (2.7 billion lb) in 2020.

2 INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION The Boundary Waters Treaty (1909) states, in part, that the boundary waters and waters flowing across the boundary shall not be polluted on either side to the injury of health and property on the other side. In accordance with this treaty and the Water Quality Agreement of 1972, the governments of Canada and the United States requested that the International Joint Commission conduct a study on pollution of the boundary waters of the Great Lakes System by agriculture, forestry, and other land use practices.

Studies completed during 1969 demonstrated that diffuse land drainage sources were not only significant, but also were difficult to measure.

As a result of those findings, the International Joint Commission called upon the International Reference Group on Great Lakes Pollution from Land Use Activities to provide a better definition of the impact of land use activities, practices, and programs on water quality in the Great Lakes, and to propose appropriate practical remedial measures.

DETAILED STUDY PLAN

The February 1974 Detailed Study Plan emphasizes four main tasks:

TASK A - assessment of problems, management of programs and research, and the attempt to set priorities in relation to the best information now available on the effects of land use activities on water quality in boundary waters of the Great Lakes.

TASK B - inventory of land use and land use practices, with emphasis on certain trends and projections to 1980 and, if possible, to 2020.

TASK C - intensive studies of a small number of representative watersheds, selected and conducted to permit some extrapolation of data to the entire Great Lakes Basin and to relate contamination of water quality, which may be found at river mouths on the Great Lakes, to specific land uses and practices.

TASK D - diagnosis of the degree of impairment of water quality in the Great Lakes, including assessment of concentrations of contaminants of concern in sediment, fish, and other aquatic resources.

3 PURPOSE

The objectives of TASK B were:

1) to provide information on the physical fabric of the Great Lakes Basin, including soils and their capability, hydrology, geomorphology, climate, mineral and gas resources, and broad vegetation zones;

2) to provide a general land use inventory of the Great Lakes Basin; 3) to provide specific information concerning the nature and location of defined specialized land use categories in the Great Lakes Basin;

4) to provide an inventory of various materials applied to land which may influence the quality of drainage waters; and

5) to provide a consistent and comprehensive set of forecasts for 1980 and 2020 relating to land uses and land use activities based upon socioeconomic, technological, and political development.

4 1 PHYSICAL FABRIC

CANADIAN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

The Lake Ontario Basin is the most populated and most urbanized of the Canadian Great Lake basins. It has a land area of 2,950,000 ha (7.3 million acres). For purposes of this report, the Lake Ontario Basin has been divided into two major sub-basins: 1) Sub-Basin 10 - Western Lake Ontario; and 2) Sub-Basin 11 - Trent-Moira Rivers. The boundaries of these sub-basins are illustrated in Figure 1.

LAND RESOURCES

GEOLOGY

The northern portion of the Lake 0ntario Basin is underlain by the geologic formation commonly referred to as the Canadian or Precambrian Shield (over 500 million years in age). At one stage in its development, the shield was extremely mountainous, but after millions of years of erosion by ice and water it has been reduced to a relatively flat surface. Through uplifting and faulting, the original igneous and sedimentary rock was altered to metamorphic rock.

The rest of the Lake Ontario Basin is underlain by the relatively flat lying sedimentary bedrock of the Paleozoic era. The Niagara Escarpment runs from Niagara Falls to Hamilton, and then north along the edge of the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin. The bedrock above the Escarpment is dolomite, whereas below the Escarpment it is shale. The eastern part of the basin has bedrock composed mainly of limestone.

TOPOGRAPHY AND SOILS

The distribution of soils in the Lake Ontario Basin is related to the bedrock and the glacial landform on which they are formed, as well as to climatic and vegetative regimes. In general, the soils can be described as being deep fertile clays, loams and sands on varying topography south of the Precambrian Shield. The Shield area is generally infertile, with shallow to deep sandy soils over relatively infertile bedrock.

The Niagara Peninsula has deep clay soils, whereas the rest of the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin has deep clay loam and sand. The Trent- Moira River Sub-Basin has deep sandy loam and organics, and deep clay to shallow loam in its southern portion. The northern area underlain by the Canadian Shield has shallow sandy soils.

5 FIGURE I: Canadian Portion Of The Lake Ontario Drainage Basin

6 In the west, the topography is dominated by the Niagara Escarpment, which traverses the counties of Niagara, Wentworth, Halton, and Peel. The area north of Lake 0ntario from Toronto to Kingston is largely a drumlinized plain with many inclusions. The soil in the drumlins is well-drained, with imperfectly-drained soil lying between them. Around Peterborough, the drumlins are large and steep, but they tend to become flattened, elongated hills near Lindsay. Inclusions include imperfectly- drained lacustrine deposits around Lake Simcoe, Lindsay, Trent River and near the Lake Ontario shore. A large strip of hilly, sandy soils cut across the plain in York, Ontario, Northumberland, and Durham Counties.

North of the drumlinized plain lies a small area of till moraines, and eventually the Canadian Shield.

CLIMATE

Rapid and marked weather changes are common during all seasons, and are major features of the climate of the Lake Ontario Basin.

Mean annual precipitation ranges from 78 to 85 cm (31-33 in) in the Lake Ontario Basin, and mean annual snowfall varies from 112 cm (44 in) in the Niagara Fruit Belt to 200 cm (79 in) in the Haliburton Slopes. The growing season is longest in the Niagara Peninsula. The mean annual temperature for the Lake Ontario Basin is 7°C. The Niagara fruit belt has a unique combination of climate and soils which enables tender fruits, such as cherries and peaches, to be grown.

HYDROLOGY

SURFACE WATER The watershed divisions of the Lake Ontario Basin are presented in Table 1. The Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin is composed of numerous coastal creeks and rivers. In contrast, the Trent River system is the second largest watershed tributary to the Great Lakes. Best known for its canal system, linking the head of the Bay of Quinte with Georgian Bay, the Trent River itself represents only the most downstream portion of the watershed, draining Rice Lake to Lake Ontario. Above Rice Lake, in the northcentral and northwestern area of the watershed, the lakes of the Haliburton Highlands drain south to the Kawartha Lakes system via the Gull, Burnt, and Mississauga Rivers and Eels Creek. The Crowe River carries water from several northeastern lakes past the Kawarthas and directly into the Trent River at Crowe Bridge, below Rice Lake. Connecting the Kawartha Lakes and Rice Lake are the Otonabee and Indian Rivers. Discharge through the Trent system is regulated by a series of dams on the navigable lakes and waterways of the Trent Canal System, and by dams on many of the northern lakes which serve as reservoirs for the canal system.

The Moira River system, like the Trent, Salmon, Napanee and Wilton systems, flows into the Bay of Quinte.

7 TABLE 1: WATERSHED DIVISIONS IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

CODE Sub-Basin 10: Western Lake Ontario Niagara Peninsula-Ontario Drainage 2HA01 to 8 Credit and Bronte Rivers 2HB Humber, Don, and Rouge Rivers 2HC Bowmanville Creek and Ganaraska River 2HD Sub-Basin 11: Trent-Moira Prince Edward County 2HE Trent River 2HF, 2HG, 2HH, 2HJ, 2HK Moira River 2HL Salmon and Napanee Rivers 2HM Gananoque and Cataraqui Rivers 2MA

VEGETATION ZONES AND WILDLIFE

The Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin lies almost entirely within the Deciduous Forest Region, while the Trent-Moira River basin group is located in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Forest region.

In the Deciduous Forest Region, broad-leaved trees, such as sugar maple, beech, white elm, basswood, red ash, white oak and butternut, are common. A number of other trees have their northern limits in this locality and are scattered throughout the region. Among these are the tulip tree, cucumber tree, pawpaw, red mulberry, Kentucky coffee-tree, black gum, blue ash, sassafras, mockernut and pignut hickories, and the black and pin oaks. In addition, black walnut, sycamore and swamp white oak are largely confined to this region. There are only a few conifers, with a scattered distribution of eastern white pine, tamarack, eastern red cedar and eastern hemlock.

Most of this deciduous forest has been cleared for agriculture and subsequent urbanization. Only 14 percent of the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin remains forested. Nearly 70 percent is farmland. The Great Lakes- St. Lawrence forest of the Trent-Moira River Sub-Basin is characterized by a mixed forest consisting of eastern white and the red pines, eastern hemlock and yellow birch. Common to this region are species such as sugar maple, red maple, red oak, basswood and white elm. Other wide- ranging species are the eastern white cedar and large-tooth aspen, and to a lesser extent beech, white oak, butternut and white ash. Boreal species, such as the white and black spruces, balsam fir, jack pine, trembling aspen, balsam poplar and white birch, are intermixed. More

8 than half (55 percent) of the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin remains covered by this Great Lakes-St. Lawrence forest.

About 40 percent of the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin has been cleared for agriculture. However, the majority of this land is used as pasture, rather than as cropland.

POPULATION

The Lake Ontario Basin is the most densely populated of the Canadian Great Lakes basins. It contained 4,035,064 persons in 1971, or 61 percent of the total Canadian Great Lakes Basin population. The largest proportion of this population (91 percent) lives in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin.

Figure 2 presents the growth of the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin population over the period 1901 - 1971. Growth has been especially rapid from 1951 to 1971.

RESOURCE USE AND DEVELOPMENT

Economic activity in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin for 1972 is presented in Table 2. As in the other Great Lakes, the land-based industries (i.e., agriculture, forestry, fisheries and mining) contribute a relatively small proportion to the total economic output.

AGRICULTURE

The western part of the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin is involved principally in the dairy industry, with such crops as corn, winter wheat, spring grains, hay and pasture. Many orchards and vineyards are cultivated near the Niagara Escarpment in the Hamilton-Wentworth and Niagara Regions.

The Niagara Fruit Belt is bounded on the north by Lake Ontario, on the south by the Niagara Escarpment, and on the east and west by the Niagara River and Hamilton. It is the principal production area in Ontario for peaches, cherries, pears, plums and grapes. These crops all require heavy pesticide applications to insure unblemished fruit.

The area north of Lake Ontario from Toronto to Kingston has a mixed agriculture, with dairy herds, orchards and canning crops being raised on the well-drained soils bordering Lake Ontario. Crop production is limited farther north by steep slopes, susceptibility to erosion, drought and low fertility. A large proportion of the area is reforested (with trees harvested for the Christmas season), or else is in low quality pasture.

9 FIGURE 2: Population In The Canadian Portion Of The Lake Ontario Basin 1901-1971

10 TABLE 2: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN, 1972

Real Domestic Product by Major Industrial Group (millions of 1961 dollars)

Western Lake Ontario Trent-Moira Total Canadian Lake Sub-Basin Sub-Basin Ontario Basin Agriculture 84.31 44.07 128.38 Forestry 2.48 2.63 5.11 Fisheries 0.74 0.22 0.96 Mining 76.65 12.51 89.16 Manufacturing 4911.56 323.60 5235.16 Construction 660.98 66.42 727.40 Transportation, Utilities, 6534.67 594.46 7129.13 Trade & Other Total Output, 12271.39 1043.91 13315.30 All Sectors

11 FORESTRY

The Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin has a high capability for forestry, while in the majority of the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin, forestry capability is only moderate. To a large extent, the sites with high timber capability actually have a low level of forest cover. This is because they also have a high agricultural use capability, with the result that in most cases the land is farmed. Productive forest in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin is largely confined to farm woodlots, river valleys, swamps and areas of shallow or infertile soil. The largest major forest concentration is in the Precambrian Shield portion of the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin.

MINING

The Lake Ontario Basin lacks the valuable metallic ore deposits which characterize the upper Great Lakes Basins, but it does have a significant extraction potential of its own, particularly in sand, gravel and other raw materials for the construction industry.

Cement production is concentrated along the north shore of Lake Ontario in Bowmanville, Colbourne, Picton and Bath. In 1974, production rose to 3.6 million t (8 billion lb), and was valued at 82 million dollars. High purity nepheline syenite, used in glass and ceramics, is mined in Peterborough County and was valued at 7.4 million dollars in 1973. Uranium deposits existing around Bancroft may be developed in the future. However, mineral extraction for the construction industry is the most important mining activity in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin. Presently, about 6,400 ha (15,800 acres) of land are being used for extractive purposes, including 4,740 ha (11,700 acres) in the Western Ontario Sub-Basin and 1660 ha (4100 acres) in the Trent- Moira Sub-Basin.

RECREATION

An evaluation of recreation in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin was done on the basis of land capability. Capability for intensive recreation was derived from the Canada Land Inventory. Capability for extensive or dispersed recreation was determined by relating water patterns and topography.

The Niagara Falls area has an outstanding concentration of high capability sites for intensive recreation.

The Hamilton-Dundas area has a very high capability for extensive recreation, as do the Haliburton Highlands and the Bay of Quinte area. The Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario shoreline is rated from high to moderate for extensive recreational use.

12 SOURCE MATERIALS

Bangay, G. E. Population Estimates for the Great Lakes Basins and their Major Tributaries, Social Science Series No. 1, Inland Waters Directorate, Canada Centre for Inland Waters, Burlington, Ontario, 1973.

Ongley, E. Hydrophysical Characteristics of Great Lakes Tributary Drainage, Canada, Volume 1, Department of Geography, Queens University, Kingston, 1974.

Phillips, D. W. and J. A. W. McCulloch. The Climate of the Great Lakes Basin, Climatological Studies Number 20, Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Toronto, 1972.

2 MAJOR LAND USES

INTRODUCTION

The land use classification scheme used in this report is described below, followed by presentation of the results. A discussion of methodology is presented in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

LAND USE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM

INTRODUCTION

The factors taken into consideration during the development of the classification system are as follows: 1) nature of the data required; 2) data collection methodologies available; 3) cost of data acquisition; 4) comparability of the data from both countries; and 5) timeliness of information.

The fact that the land use data were to be used in studies related to water quality dictated that classes should be different with respect to water runoff, types of pollution, degree of pollution, etc. The land use categories used in the inventory of land use in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin are defined in Table 3.

TABLE 3: LAND USE CLASSIFICATION DEFINITIONS

URBAN - Land used for residential, commercial, industrial or institutional purposes.

Residential - Land used for residential purposes. Single and multiple dwelling units in the built-up portions of cities and towns were included in this category. Areas of urban sprawl, such as country estates and strip residential developments, were also included.

Low density residential - Land used for residential purposes which had 10 percent or less man-made surface ground cover. This category included, for example, strip residential and country estates.

Medium density residential - Land used for residential purposes which had 10 to 25 percent man-made surface ground cover. This category included, for example, urban fringe subdivision-type developments.

High density residential - Land used for residential purposes which had greater than

15 25 percent man-made surface ground cover. Included in this category were downtown housing and apartment buildings. Note: although some apartment buildings may have had less than 25 percent man-made surface ground cover, they were included in the high density category due to the high population density within the building.

Commercial - Industrial - Land used for commercial, industrial or institutional purposes. The entire area occupied by the establishment was included, such as surrounding grounds, storage sheds, parking lots, etc.

Low density commercial - industrial - Land used for commercial, industrial or institutional purposes which had 10 percent or less man-made surface ground cover.

Medium density commercial - industrial - Land used for commercial, industrial or institutional purposes which had 10 to 25 percent man-made surface ground cover.

High density commercial - industrial - Land used for commercial, industrial or institutional purposes which had greater than 25 percent man-made surface ground cover.

Transportation - Land used for transportation facilities such as rail yards, highway interchanges, airports and airstrips.

EXTRACTIVE - Land used for the extraction of earth materials, including open pit mines, strip coal mines, commercial mineral excavations, commercial topsoil removal operations, etc. Idle land held in reserve was included.

SLAG HEAPS - Land used for commercial dumping of mine tailings, chemicals, and slag. This category was of particular significance in the Sudbury area.

OUTDOOR RECREATION - Land used for private or public outdoor recreation. This category included such things as developed national, provincial, municipal, city and private parks, wildlife sanctuaries, historical sites, race tracks, golf courses, drive-in theatres, marinas and cemeteries.

AGRICULTURE -

Orchards, Vineyards, Horticulture, Fur and Poultry Operations - Land used for the production of tree fruits and grapes, vegetables and small fruits, and large scale fur farms and poultry operations.

Cropland - Land used for the production of annual crops such as grain, tobacco, or sugar beets.

16 Improved Pasture - Land used for pasture or for the production of hay and other fodder crops. To qualify as improved, a pasture had to exhibit some evidence of cultivation.

Unimproved Pasture - Included grasslands, such as natural range, and areas of sedges and herbaceous plants. Brush scrub and mature trees up to a maximum cover of 25 percent of the total land area was included in this category.

Forest - Land bearing forest, short trees or bushes in which the tree cover exceeded 25 percent of the total area, was included in this category.

March & Swamp - Open wetlands of all types were included in this category.

Barren - Land which did not support vegetation. Examples include sand flats, barren rock, alkali flats, etc.

RESULTS SUB-BASIN 10: WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO

There are four major watersheds in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin: 1) Niagara Peninsula (Ontario Drainage); 2) Credit and Bronte Rivers; 3) Humber, Don and Rouge Rivers; and 4) the Bowmanville and Ganaraska Rivers. The major land uses of these watersheds and the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin are presented in Table 4.

The majority of the land area in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin is used for agriculture. Of the 605,507 ha (1.5 million acres) of farmland, 30,161 ha (74,530 acres) are orchards and horticulture, 225,942 ha (550,300 acres) are cropland, and 349,504 ha (863,600 acres) are pasture. The orchards are concentrated in the Niagara Peninsula watershed.

The second largest land use in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin, in terms of area, is urban. It incorporates 135,055 ha (333,720 acres), 15 percent of the total land area in this sub-basin. About half of this urban land is located in the Humber, Don and Rouge Rivers watershed, which includes Metropolitan Toronto. A large proportion (89 percent) of the urban land in this sub-basin is located in large cities with populations greater than 25,000.

Forest covers 14 percent of the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin. The largest amount of outdoor recreation land is found in the most highly urbanized watershed, the Humber, Don and Rouge Rivers.

SUB-BASIN 11: TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS

Five major watersheds comprise the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin: 1) Prince Edward County; 2) Trent River; 3) Moira River; 4) Salmon and Napanee Rivers; and 5) the Ganonoque and Cataraqui Rivers. The major land uses in these watersheds are presented in Table 5.

17 TABLE 4: MAJOR LAND USES IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 10) (ha) Niagara Peninsula Credit & Humber, Don & Bowmanville BASIN CODE Total Sub-Basin Ontario Drainage Bronte R. Rouge R & Ganaraska R Urban Areas > 25,000 Pop. Commercial-Industrial Low Density0 0000 Medium Density 690 655 1,857 78 3,280 High Density 4,439 6,002 21,276 1,100 32,817 Total Comm.-Indust. 5,129 6,657 23,133 1,178 36,097 Residential Low Density 2,451 675 2,929 371 6,426 Medium Density 8,363 9,390 15,154 1,350 34,257 High Density 4,599 3,913 23,796 1,567 33,875 Total Residential 15,413 13,978 41,879 3,288 74,558 Transportation 2,922 1,248 4,930 188 9,288 Total Urban > 25,000 23,464 21,883 69,942 4,654 119,943 Urban Areas < 25,000 Pop. 2,262 4,359 4,443 4,048 15,112 Total Urban Areas 25,726 26,242 74,385 8,702 135,055 Extractive Extractive 1,079 1,551 1,548 238 4,416 Slag Heaps 297 28 0 0 325 Total Extractive 1,376 1,579 1,548 238 4,741 Outdoor Recreation 2,560 2,326 7,368 1,337 13,591 Agriculture Orchards, Hort., etc. 22,768 2,730 2,225 2,438 30,161 Cropland 73,644 47,652 68,286 36,360 225,942 Improved Pasture 65,238 69,789 67,229 53,844 256,100 Unimproved Pasture 24,988 18,424 27,624 22,368 93,404 Total Agriculture 186,638 138,595 165,364 115,010 605,607 Forest 24,011 45,951 21,987 34,699 126,648 Marsh and Swamp 1,388 176 555 713 2,832 Barren0 0000 Total Watershed Land Area 241,699 214,869 271,207 160,699 888,474 Taken from Land Management Information Systems/Lands Directorate Environment Canada/Data Source C.L.I. and C.C.R.S. Maps.

18 TABLE 5: MAJOR LAND USES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 11) (ha) Prince Edward Trent Moira Salmon & Gananoque Total Basin Code County River River Napanee R. & Cataraqui R. Sub-Basin Urban Areas > 25,000 Pop. Commercial-Industrial Low Density 0 0 0 174 0 174 Medium Density 0 311 54 176 0 541 High Density 0 1,059 457 1,687 486 3,689 Total Comm.-Indust. 0 1,370 511 2,037 486 4,404 Residential Low Density 0 609 310 576 50 1,545 Medium Density 0 1,288 589 1,882 226 3,985 High Density 0 258 83 22 178 541 Total Residential 0 2,155 982 2,480 454 6,071 Transportation 0 63 0 160 0 223 Total Urban > 25,000 0 3,588 1,493 4,677 940 10,698 Urban Areas < 25,000 Pop. 1,093 7,551 1,378 2,219 2,194 14,435 Total Urban Areas 1,093 11,139 2,871 6,896 3,134 25,133 Extractive Extractive 48 715 359 474 70 1,666 Slag Heaps000000 Total Extractive 48 715 359 474 70 1,666 Outdoor Recreation 113 15,410 360 530 978 17,391 Agriculture Orchards, Hort.,etc. 701 658 0 0 0 1,359 Cropland 28,048 80,553 9,207 11,926 533 130,267 Improved Pasture 40,417 239,913 47,353 103,966 69,574 501,223 Unimproved Pasture 7,499 114,326 22,427 38,227 23,362 205,841 Total Agriculture 76,665 435,450 78,987 154,119 93,469 838,690 Forest 24,844 702,893 187,274 131,605 81,361 1,127,977 Marsh and Swamp 4,406 21,763 7,797 6,462 5,419 45,847 Barren 513 324 990 1,713 1,630 5,170 Total Watershed Land Area 107,682 1,187,694 278,638 301,799 186,061 2,061,874

Taken from Land Management Information Systems/Lands Directorate Environment Canada/Data Source C.L.I. and C.C.R.S. Maps.

19 The dominant land use in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin is forest, which occupies 1,127,977 ha (2.8 million acres), or about 55 percent of the total land area.

Agriculture is the second predominant land use type, with 838,690 ha (2.1 million acres), 84 percent of which is pasture. Most of the cropland is located in Prince Edward County and the Trent River watershed.

Urban centres with populations greater than 25,000 are present in every watershed except Prince Edward County. These larger centres represent 10,694 ha (26,400 acres), 43 percent of the 25,125 ha (62,080 acres) of urban land in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin.

The Trent River watershed contains 89 percent of the outdoor recreational land in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin (15,410 ha or 38,080 acres).

Marsh and swamp occupy more land than urban or recreation, 45,847 ha (113,290 acres).

20 SOURCE MATERIALS

Thie, J., R.A. Ryerson, and T.T. Alfoldi. Mapping Land Use in the Great Lakes Basin: an Evaluation of Conventional and Remote Sensing Techniques, Report to Technical Committee B, International Reference Group on Great Lakes Pollution from Land Use Activities. International Joint Commission, Toronto, August, 1973.

Gierman, D. and R.A. Ryerson. Land Use Information for the Great Lakes Basin, Report to Technical Committee B, International Reference Group on Great Lakes Pollution from Land Use Activities. International Joint Commission, Ottawa, 1974.

3 SPECIALIZED LAND USES

INTRODUCTION

Six specialized land use categories are inventoried in this report. They are as follows: 1) mine tailings disposal sites; 2) waste disposal sites; 3) shoreline erosion; 4) riverbank erosion; 5) intensive livestock operations; and 6) high density, non-sewered residential areas. These specialized land uses are discussed individually below.

DISPOSAL OPERATIONS

MINE TAILINGS DISPOSAL SITES

There are thirteen mines in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin which extract minerals requiring tailings disposal areas (Table 6). All these mines are located in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin. Only one of the thirteen is presently active, with iron being the mineral mined there (methodology is presented in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series).

TABLE 6: MINE TAILINGS DISPOSAL SITES IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

Sub-basin Watershed Description Minerals 11 2HH Canadian Dyno Mines Ltd. Uranium 11 2HK Belmont Mine Iron 11 2HK Blairton Mine Iron 11 2HK Cordova Mine Gold 11 2HK Coehill Mine Iron 11 2HK Atlas Mine (Deloro, Smelting & Refining) Gold, Arsenic 11 2HK Deloro Mine (Deloro, Smelting and Refining) Gold, Arsenic 11 2HK *Marmoraton Mining Co. Ltd. Iron 11 2HL Hollandia Mine Lead 11 2HM Long Lake Mine Zinc 11 2MA Chaffey Mine (New Myla-Maque Mining) Iron 11 2MA Matthews Mine (New Myla-Maque Mining) Iron 11 2MA Quartz Crystal Mines Ltd.

* Still Active

23 WASTE DISPOSAL SITES (1)

INTRODUCTION

The waste disposal sites in the Western Lake Ontario and Trent- Moira Sub-Basins are listed in Tables 7 and 8 respectively. The table includes liquids, solids, hazardous materials and deep well disposal sites which were licenced by the Waste Management Branch of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment as of January 31, 1974. The methodology used in the data collection is described in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series. The column headings in Tables 7 and 8 are defined as follows:

No. - An arbitrary code assigned for mapping purposes.

MOE No. - Permit number in Ontario Ministry of the Environment (Waste Management Branch) records.

Municipality - Municipality in which the disposal area is situated.

Opened - Date on which the site was opened. If no figure is entered, the site was opened prior to 1971.

Closed - Date of closure.

Area - Site area (hectares).

Population Served - Operator's estimate of the population served.

Waste Type - S - Solid, L - Liquid, H - Hazard.

Volume - Listed in tons/day, unless otherwise noted.

Proj. Life - Life, as estimated in 1971 when the licence was first issued, or on the opening date.

Watershed - This identifies the sub-drainage basin in which the site is located, in accordance with the Canada Water Survey classification.

SUB-BASIN 10: WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO

Solid waste is the most common form of waste and is handled at 89 sites. Liquid wastes are disposed of at 18 sites, and hazardous wastes at six sites. Five of the six hazardous waste disposal sites are located in Peel and Halton counties.

The large volume of waste, 16,600 t (36.5 million lb), disposed of daily in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin is a direct consequence of the high population density in that area.

24 TABLE 7: WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 10)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life Northumberland & Durham County 724 SS311607 Darlington Twp. 30/9/72 16.8 8,700 L 2HD 725 L311702 Haldimand Twp. 4.0 11,562 S, L 70 10 2HD 726 L311703 Haldimand Twp. 6.0 200 S ½ /wk. 10 2HD 728 L311705 Haldimand Twp. 2.0 200 S 1/wk. 25 2HD 729 1311706 Haldimand Twp. 2HD 730 L311801 Hamilton Twp. Fall/73 3,500 S, L 5 2HD 751 L310101 Seymour Twp. 4.0 8,700 S 10 2HD 733 L3311901 Hope Twp. 0.04 2,778 S 10 2HD 734 L311902 Hope Twp. 23/5/73 9,000 L 1 2HD 735 L311903 Hope Twp. 2.0 9,000 S 5 2HD 736 L311904 Hope Twp. 15/5/72 9,000 L 1 2HD 737 L311905 Hope Twp. 2HD 718 L311502 Cramahe Twp. 11/2/72 20.0 S 4 20 2HD 721 L311601 Darlington Twp. 28/2/73 1.0 9,500 S 20 2 2HD 722 L311605 Darlington Twp. 8,800 S 10.5 10 2HD 723 L311606 Darlington Twp. 2.8 13,000 S 9.25 2HD 713 L311401 Clarke Twp. 4.4 1,550 S 1 30 2HD 714 L311402 Clarke Twp. 15/9/71 4.0 2,500 S 2HD 715 L311403 Clarke Twp. 1.2 1,688 S 1-4 9-10 2HD 716 L311404 Clarke Twp. 2HD 700 L310302 Town of Cobourg L 10 gal/wk 2HD 701 OTH310402 Port Hope 15/1/72 2.8 9,000 L 1 2HD 702 L310403 Port Hope 4.0 9,000 S 20 10 2HD 703 1310501 Brighton 2.8 2,900 S 3 5 2HD Dufferin County 169 L180101 Orangeville Fall/73 5.6 7,703 S 16 2HB 170 L180102 Orangeville 30/9/73 1.2 - S ¼ 3 2HB 173 L180502 E. Garafraxa Twp. 13/4/72 24.0 8,030 S 16 2HB

25 TABLE 7 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 10)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life Wentworth County 68 L130102 Hamilton 24/5/72 14.8 297,000 S 170 3 2HA 69 L130103 Hamilton 24/5/72 66.8 297,000 S 438 2-3 2HA 70 L130104 Hamilton 24/5/72 9.2 297,000 S 959 1 2HB 71 L130201 Dundas 10.0 16,835 S 28 2 2HB 74 L130701 Binbrook Twp. 0.4 3,648 S 5 1-2 2HA 75 L130802 E. Flamboro Twp. 12.0 - S 8 10 2HB 76 L130901 W. Flamboro Twp. 2.0 8,549 S 10 5 2HB 77 L131001 Glanford Twp. 29/3/72 0.8 6,137 S 2-3 - 2HB 78 L131101 Saltfleet Twp. 3.2 19,000 S 45 2-3 2HA Haldimand County 11 110601 Canborough Twp. 7.2 1,230 S 1-2 20-40 2HA 20 111301 Seneca Twp. 2.0 - S 10 20 2HA 21 111302 Seneca Twp. 0.8 2,400 S 2 25 2HA Toronto 677 L280302 Etobicoke 45.2 550,000 S 805 3 2HC 678 L280401 Scarboro 77.6 550,000 S 5 2HC 679 L280601 East York 2HC

Niagara Region 33 L120101 St. Catharines 17.6 110,000 S 300 5 2HA 34 L120102 St. Catharines 2.8 105,000 100 1 2HA 35 L120103 St. Catharines 12/7/72 4.0 100 2 2HA 36 L120201 Niagara Falls 26.2 64,000 S, L 300 6-7 2HA 37 L120202 Niagara Falls 12/7/72 6.4 - S 93 2-5 2HA 38 L120203 Niagara Falls 6/10/72 3.0 - S 1 100 2HA 39 L120204 Niagara Falls - ----2HA 40 L120301 Port Colborne 41.2 - S 100-300 12 2HA 41 L120401 Welland 37.8 45,000 S 85 20 2HA 42 L120501 Fort Erie 16.0 9,600 S, H 30 25 2HA 43 L120502 Fort Erie 20.0 14,000 S 40 5 2HA 44 L120601 Grimsby 11.4 14,000 S 25 10 2HA 45 L120701 Lincoln 6.0 14,000 S - 15 2HA 46. L120702 Lincoln 3.2 14,000 S - 3 2HA

26 TABLE 7 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES TN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 10)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life 47 L120801 Niagara-on-the-Lake 12/4/72 8.0 - S 5,000 5-10 2HA 48 L120802 Niagara-on-the-Lake 4.2 13,000 S 3 10 2HA 49 L120803 Niagara-on-the-Lake 4.0 S 114.3 10 2HA 50 L120804 Niagara-on-the-Lake 11/9/72 16.0 S 300 2 2HA 51 L120901 Pelham 2.0 6,000 S 10 - 2HA 52 L121001 Thorold 12.8 S 600 10 2HA 53 L121002 Thorold 28/11/72 4.7 15,800 S 45 7½ 2HA 54 L121101 Wainfleet Twp. 7.2 3,600 S 3 25 2HA 55 L121102 Wainfleet Twp. 2.4 1,800 S 1 15 2HA 56 L121201 West Lincoln Twp. 25/7/72 4.0 2,000 S 3 5 2HA 57 L121202 West Lincoln Twp. 25/7/72 2.0 3,000 S 3 3-4 2HA 58 L120704 Lincoln 15/12/72 0.4 L 300 2HA

Ontario County 512 L240402 Whitby 10.0 23,000 S 70 5 2HC 517 L241101 Pickering Twp. 2.2 S 4 2HC 518 L241102 Pickering Twp. 28/8/73 92.0 1,000,000 S 2,000 2HC 519 L241103 Pickering Twp. 8.0 18,000 L 1 2HC 520 L241104 Pickering Twp. 2HC 521 L241105 Pickering Twp. 2HC 535 L241801 Twp. of Whitby East 40.0 88,000 S 180 7 2HD 536 L241802 Twp. of Whitby East 5/1/73 28.0 L 50 5-10 2HD York Region 482 L230302 Markham 27.6 2,000,000 S 500 2 2HC 483 L230601 Vaughan 24.4 18,000 S, L 150 20 2HC 484 L230602 Vaughan 40.8 S, L 10-15 2HC 485 L230603 Vaughan 1/6/73 38.4 Toronto S 1,200 2 2HC 491 L231001 King Twp. 2.0 4,500 S - 5 2HC Wellington County 204 L175501 Morriston 4/3/73 0.4 200 S - 20-30 2HB 205 L171002 Erin 30/11/71 20.0 1,365 S 5 2HB 195 L171301 Erin Twp. 25/5/72 2.8 4,000 S 2 5 2HB 193 L171001 Erin 1.2 1,365 S 12-15 5-10 2HB Halton County 420 L210501 Oakville 24.0 55,000 S 115 2HB 421 L210502 Oakville 8.0 S,H .01 20 2HB

27 TABLE 7 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 10)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life 422 210503 Oakville 36.0 L 2HB 423 L210504 Oakville 180.0 S 4-5 20 2HB 424 L210505 Oakville 16.0 S 25-50/yr 50 2HB 425 L210506 Oakville 0.4 S 0-30/yr 50 2HB 426 L210507 Oakville 242.0 S 1/10 20 2HB 427 L210508 Oakville S 20 5 2HB 428 L210601 Twp. of Esquesing 1.6 900 S 1½ 15 2HB 429 L210602 Twp. of Esquesing 37.6 L 14-15 60 2HB 431 L210509 Oakville 15/1/74 5.1 S 1000 yd3 12HB 415 L210101 Acton 2.0 4,800 S 20 5 2HB 416 L210201 Burlington 19.6 84,000 S, L 130 5 2HB 417 L210205 Burlington 11/10/73 14.0 84,000 S, H 130 1 2HB 418 L210301 Georgetown 20/12/73 6.0 17,000 S 60 10 2HB 419 L210401 Milton 2.0 7,500 S 20 2 2HB Peel 451 L220201 Mississauga 32.0 S 2500/yr 20 2HB 452 L220202 Mississauga H 5/yr 2HB 453 L220204 Mississauga 24/4/72 38.0 S 3000 10 2HC 454 L220205 Mississauga 6/7/72 7.2 S 2 2HB 455 L220302 Port Credit 12.8 H 2HC 456 L220303 Port Credit 19.6 L, H 1.7 2HB 457 L220701 Albion Twp. 4.0 8,800 S 10 2HC 458 L220702 Albion Twp. 0.8 250 S 2/wk 50 2HC 459 L220802 Caledon Twp. 20.0 4,829 S 8 50 2HB 460 L220903 Twp. of Chinguacousy 40.0 27,655 S 50 6 2HC 461 L220203 Mississauga 29/11/72 38.8 150,000 L 823 7 2HB

No information presented indicates data not available, unless otherwise noted. acres = hectares (ha) x 2.471

28 TABLE 8: WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 11)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life Leeds & Grenville 1042 L440201 Ganonoque 2MA 1043 L440202 Ganonoque 2MA 1046 L441101 S.Burgess & 28/11/72 1.2 1,100 S ¼ 2MA Bastard Twp. 1047 L442101 Leeds & Lansdowne 31/12/72 0.4 2,100 S 1/10 2MA 1048 D441102 S.Burgess & 8/8/72 1.2 1,000 S 2½ 25 2MA Bastard Twp. 1049 L441301 S. Crosby Twp. 0.8 300 S 2 2MA 1050 L441303 S. Crosby Twp. 1.2 1,312 S ¼ 2MA 1055 L442002 Leeds & Lansdowne 0.8 S 6 15 2MA 1057 L442102 Leeds & Lansdowne 1.2 2,100 S ¼ 2MA 1058 L442103 Leeds & Lansdowne 4/1/72 0.4 1,000 S 1 10 2MA 1059 L442501 Rear of Yonge Twp. 1,036 S ¼ 2MA 1060 L442503 Rear of Yonge Twp. 0.4 1,000 S ¼ 2MA

Frontenac County 1007 L380101 Kingston 6.0 S ½ 25 2MA 1008 L380102 Kingston 0.4 L 6000 gal. 20 2HM 1009 D380307 Bedford Twp. 29/5/73 6.0 S ½ 20 2MA 1010 D380308 Bedford Twp. 0.2 125(summer) S 400 lb. 40 2MA 1011 D380305 Bedford Twp. 0.4 300 (summer) S 1 99 2MA 1012 D380702 Kennebec Twp. 2.0 700 S ¼ - ½ 50 2HM 1013 L380803 Kingston Twp. 0.05 S ¼ 10 2HM 1014 L380802 Kingston Twp. 8.0 S 10 10 2HM 1016 L380805 Kingston Twp. 2HM 1018 L380808 Kingston Twp. 25/2/72 0.2 S 1 30 2HM 1019 L380809 Kingston Twp. 2HM 1020 L380902 Loughborough Twp. 31/7/72 2.0 300 S 2MA 1021 L380903 Loughborough Twp. 1.6 1,000 (summer) S ½ - 1½ 20-30 2HM 1022 L380904 Loughborough Twp. 17/10/73 0.4 60-100 S 1/5- 10-30 2MA 1023 L381001 Olden Twp. Fall/73 0.2 1,000 S 1¼ 2HM 1024 D381002 Olden Twp. 21/7/72 0.4 500 S ¼ 100 2HM 1025 L381301 Pittsburch Twp. 2.0 4,500 S 11 15 2MA 1026 L381302 Pittsburch Twp. 6.5 4,500 S 11 15 2MA

29 TABLE 8 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 11)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life 1027 L381303 Pittsburch Twp. 2MA 1028 L381304 Pittsburch Twp. 25/2/72 0.4 S 6¼ 30 2MA 1029 L381401 Portland Twp. 16/10/73 18.0 2,630 S 25 25 2HM 1030 L381501 Storrongton Twp. 30/9/72 0.8 2,300 S 1 2MA 1031 L381502 Storrongton Twp. 18/2/72 S 2MA 1032 L381601 Wolfe Is.Twp. 0.4 1,000 S ¼ 25 2MA

Hastings County 954 D361901 Limerick Twp. 0.2 S 10 2HK 955 D361904 Limerick Twp. 0.8 S 2HK 956 D362001 Madoc Twp. Fall/73 1.6 1,500 S 2 10 2HL 957 L362002 Madoc Twp. S 2HL 958 L362101 Marmora Lake Twp. 10.0 1,200 S 7 25 2HK 959 L362103 Marmora Lake Twp. 12/4/72 15.2 2,700 S 7 30 2HK 960 D362104 Marmora Lake Twp. 24/5/72 2.4 450 S c 10 2HK 961 L362502 Thurlow Twp. 2HM 962 L362401 Sidney Twp. 1.6 1,500 S ½ 7 2HK 963 L362503 Thurlow Twp. 20.0 1,900 S 1½ 40 2HL 964 362504 Thurlow Twp. Application Refused 965 D362505 Thurlow Twp. 2.4 2640 Airbase S,L 30 2-4 2HL 3,540 966 L362601 Thurlow Twp. Fall/73 19.2 5,743 S 20 2HL 967 L362602 Thurlow Twp. 20.0 5,743 S 5 lb. 50 2HL 968 L362701 Tudor & Cashel Twp. 40 S 2HL 969 D362702 Tudor & Cashel Twp. 1/10/71 488 S ½ 2HL 970 D362703 Tudor & Cashel Twp. 0.4 40 S 20 2HL 971 L362801 Tyendinaga Twp. 1.0 1,800 S 2 30 2HM 972 L362802 Tyendinaga Twp. 2HM 973 D362901 Wollaston Twp. 4.0 600 S 2HK Lennox & Addington County 983 L370402 Adolphustown Twp. 0.4 500 S 3 6 2HM 984 L370501 Amherst Is. Twp. 0.4 400 S 10 2HM 985 L370601 East Camden Twp. 2.8 1,200 S 25 2HM 986 L370602 East Camden Twp. 2HM

30 TABLE 8 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 11)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life 987 L370603 East Camden Twp. 7.2 2,000 S 50 2HM 988 1370604 East Camden Twp. 1.5 S 15 2HM 989 1370801 Ernestown Twp. 0.02 L 1.25 990 L370802 Ernestown Twp. 14.0 9,000 S 2HM 991 LA370803 Ernestown Twp. 2HM 992 L370901 Fredericksburgh N. 1.0 2,057 S 10 2HM 993 D371001 Fredericksburgh S. S 2HM 994 L371002 Fredericksburgh S. 0.7 S 7 2HM 995 L371101 Kaladar, Anglesea, 2HM Effingham 996 L371103 Kaladar, Anglesea, Fall/73 0.4 S 1/20 25 2HL Effingham 997 L371104 Kaladar, Anglesea, 0.4 150 S 2HL Effingham 998 L371106 Kaladar, Anglesea, 0.4 250 S 2HM Effingham 999 L371107 Kaladar, Anglesea, 0.4 200 S 2HL Effingham 1000 D371108 Kaladar, Anglesea, S2HM Effingham 1002 L371202 Richmond Twp. 4.0 300 S ¼ 20 2HM 1003 L371203 Richmond Twp. 10.0 6,500 S 15 30 2HM 1004 D371204 Richmond Twp. 1,830 S 2HM 1005 L371302 Sheffield Twp. 2.0 1,180 S 2 20 2HM 1006 L371301 Sheffield Twp. 15/6/72 0.2 1,189 S 1 1 2HM Peterborough County 846 D340501 Asphodel Twp. 0.8 1,450 S 15 2HJ 847 L340502 Asphodel Twp. 4.0 1,100 S 15-20 15 2HJ 848 L340601 Belmont Methuen 1.2 500 S 10 2HK 849 L340602 Belmont Methuen 2HK 850 L340603 Belmont Methuen 15/7/71 2HK 851 L340604 Belmont Methuen Application Cancelled 2HH 852 L340605 Belmont Methuen 500 S 2HK 853 L340606 Belmont Methuen Application Cancelled 2HK 854 L340607 Belmont Methuen Fall/73 1.2 500 S 5 2HK 855 L340608 Belmont Methuen 1.6 500 S 10 2HK

31 TABLE 8 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 11)

Area Population Waste 1971 Waters NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume (ha) Served Type Project Life hed 856 L340609 Belmont Methuen 1.2 S 20 2HK 857 D340609 Belmont Methuen Application Cancelled 2HK 858 L340610 Belmont Methuen 7/7/72 6.0 S 10 2HK 859 D340611 Belmont Methuen 2HK 860 L340701 Burleigh Anstruther 4.0 100 S 1/5 50 2HH 861 L340702 Burleigh Anstruther 300(summer) S ¼ 50 2HH 862 L340703 Burleigh Anstruther 6.0 500 S ¼ 25 2HH 863 L340704 Burleigh Anstruther 2.3 1,000(summer) S 1 20 2HH 300 864 L340705 Burleigh Anstruther 1.2 100 S 1/10 3 2HH 865 L340706 Burleigh Anstruther 250 (summer) S 1/10 50 2HH 866 D340802 Chandos Twp. 0.5 700 S 30 2HK 867 D340803 Chandos Twp. 0.3 500 S 3 2HH 868 D340804 Chandos Twp. 2.0 500 S 30 2HK 869 D340806 Chandos Twp. 2.8 500 S 30 2HK 870 D340807 Chandos Twp. 0.3 300 S 3 2HK 871 L340901 Douro Twp. 0.8 3,100 S ½ 15 2HJ 872 L340902 Douro Twp. 2.0 3,100 S ½ 5 2HJ 873 L340902 Douro Twp. 2HJ 874 L341002 bummer Twp. 31/7/72 S 2HJ 875 L341004 Dummer Twp. 10.0 S 2HJ 876 L341005 Dummer Twp. 31/7/72 2.0 700(summer) S 2HJ 100 877 L341101 Ennismore Twp. 155.6 1,200 S 2HH 878 D341201 Galway Cavendish Twp. 0.6 S 2HH 879 L341202 Galway Cavendish Twp. 6/9/73 8.0 150(summer) S 3-4/wk 10 2HF 75 880 L341203 Galway Cavendish Twp. 2.0 12 S 2HF 881 D341204 Galway Cavendish Twp. 30/9/72 0.4 3,000 S 2HH 882 D341205 Galway Cavendish Twp. 1.6 125(summer) S 2HH 5 883 D341206 Galway Cevendish Twp. 21/2/72 S 2HH 884 341207 Galway Cavendish Twp. 2.8 25-45 S 2½/wk 10 2HH 885 D341301 Harvey Twp. 1,200 S ¼ 2HH 886 L341302 Harvey Twp. 15/6/72 1.2 350 S 1/wk 3 2HH 887 D341304 Harvey Twp. 1.6 1,200 S ¼ 20 2HH

32 TABLE 8 (cont'd): WASTE DISPPOSAL SITES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 11)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life 888 L341501 Otonabee Twp. 40.0 57,000 S 225 25 2HJ 889 L341601 Smith Twp. 18.0 7,600 S 9 20 2HH 890 OTH341603 Smith Twp. 16.0 7,600 S, L 20 2HH Prince Edward County 900 L350101 Picton Twp. 4,760 S 4 2HE 901 L350102 Picton Twp. 0.3 4,760 S 2HE 902 L350301 Wellington 4.2 1,000 S 2 30 2HE 903 1350401 Ameliasburgh Twp. 1/12/73 2.4 4,200 S 4-5 10 2HE 904 LA35O401 Ameliasburgh Twp. 24/4/72 5.2 L 2 5 2HE 905 L350501 AtholTwp. 0.8 1,000 S 2HE 906 L350601 Hallowell Twp. 3,800 S 1.3 2HE 907 L350602 Hallowell Twp. 2.4 480(Camp.) S 10 2HE 908 L350603 Hallowell Twp. 23/8/72 2.0 S 0-20 2HE 909 L350701 Hillier Twp. S 2HE 910 L350802 N. Marysborough Twp. 0.4 1,000 S 20 2HE 911 L350905 N. Marysborough Twp. 1.6 900 S 2HE 912 L350906 N. Marysborough Twp. 7/7/72 8.0 L 7 2HE 913 L351001 Sophiasburgh Twp. 2.0 1,650 S 2HE 914 L351002 Sophiasburgh Twp. 31/8/72 60 S 600 lb/wk 2HE

Hastings County 924 1360101 Belleville 0.8 S 2HL 925 L360102 Belleville 2HL 926 L360103 Belleville S 2HL 927 L360104 Belleville 0.4 S 4 2HL 928 L360201 Trenton 1/6/71 14,000 S 30-35 2HK 929 L360203 Trenton 1.2 S 10 2HK 930 L360501 Deloro 0.1 200 S 15 2HL 931 L360901 Stirling 1.2 1,472 S 2 30 2HK 933 D361401 Elzevir Grimsthorpe Jan./74 0.2 200 S .15 5 2HL 934 D361402 Elzevir Grimsthorpe 1.2 150 S 2HL 935 L361403 Elzevir Grimsthorpe 0.8 100 S 1/10 10 2HL 940 L361701 Hungerford Twp. 7/7/72 4.0 S 1 25 2HL 941 L361702 Hungerford Twp. 6.4 1,800 S 8 10 2HL 942 L361703 Hungerford Twp. 2HL 943 L361704 Hungerford Twp. 31/5/72 0.4 200 S ¼ 2HL

33 TABLE 8 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 11)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life 944 L361705 Hungerford Twp. 31/5/72 900 S ¼ 2HL 945 L361706 Hungerford Twp. 3.2 2,300 S 5 2HL 946 L361801 Huntingdon Twp. 9/1/73 0.8 1,350 S 3 1 2HL 947 L361802 Huntingdon Twp. 15/6/72 0.8 500 S 200 lb 1 2HK 948 L361803 Huntingdon Twp. 15/6/72 0.4 500 S 200 lb 5 2HK 949 D361804 Huntingdon Twp. 0.04 200(Camp) S 10-15 2HL 950 L361805 Huntingdon Twp. 19/4/72 8.0 1,500 S 15 2HK 951 L361806 Huntingdon Twp. 20.0 L 5,000 gal/yr. 100 2HL 952 D361902 Limerick Twp. 30/9/73 0.2 S 10 2HK 953 D361903 Limerick Twp. 0.2 S 15 2HK Haliburton County 800 D330104 Anson, Hindon, Minden 0.4 200 S 1/10 30 2HF 801 D330201 Cardiff Twp. Fall/73 0.4 S 2HH 803 D3302O3 Cardiff Twp. 1.6 S 10 2HK 804 D330204 Cardiff Twp. 1.2 S 10 2HF 805 D330205 Cardiff Twp. 1.2 S 10 2HH 806 D330301 Dysart Et Al Twp. 0.8 150 S ¼ 10 2HF 807 D330302 Dysart Et Al Twp. 3.8 2,000 S 10 2HF 808 D330303 Dysart Et Al Twp. 1.0 400 S 10 2HF 809 D330304 Dysart Et Al Twp. 1.6 400 S 2HF 810 D330305 Dysart Et Al Twp. Application Refused 2HF 811 D330306 Dysart Et Al Twp. 15/11/71 0.6 250 S ½ 10 2HF 812 D330307 Dysart Et Al Twp. 15/11/71 0.4 250 S ½ 10 2HF 813 D330308 Dysart Et Al Twp. Fall/73 1.1 325 S ¾ 10 2HF 814 D330309 Dysart Et Al Twp. 0.8 400 S ½ 10 2HF 815 D330310 Dysart Et Al Twp. 0.8 300 S ½ 10 2HF 816 D330312 Dysart Et Al Twp. 2.0 400 S 10 2HF 817 D330313 Dysart Et Al Twp. 2.0 325 S 10 2HF 818 D330314 Dysart Et Al Twp. 0.1 175 S 20 2HF 819 D330315 Dysart Et Al Twp. 0.05 700 S 1/20 99 2HF 820 D330316 Dysart Et Al Twp. 0.01 160(summer) S 2HF 822 D330401 Glamorgan Twp. 0.4 409 S c 52HF 823 D330503 Lutterworth Twp. 2.0 S 1/wk 25 2HF 824 D330504 Lutterworth Twp. 10/2/72 Fall/73 0.4 S 2HF 825 D330505 Lutterworth Twp. 500 S 20 2HF 826 LD330506 Lutterworth Twp. 100 S 5 2HF 827 DL330507 Lutterworth Twp. 0.4 100 S 15 2HF

34 TABLE 8 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN II)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life 828 L330602 Monmouth Twp. 8.0 700 S 30 2HF 832 D330801 Snowdon Twp. 1.6 S 10-15 2HF 833 D330802 Snowdon Twp. 150(summer) S 5 2HF 834 D330803 Snowdon Twp. 30/11/72 8.0 400(summer) S 200 lb. 50 835 D330901 Stanhope Twp. 2.0 250 S a 20 2HF 836 D330902 Stanhope Twp. 4.0 250 S a 40 2HF 798 D330102 Anson, Hindon, Minden 0.8 400 S 3 10 2HF Ontario County 531 L241501 Scugog Twp. 1.6 3,000(summer) S 1 2HG 500 525 L241302 Reach Twp. 10.0 2,900 S 1 20 2HG 526 L241303 Reach Twp. S2HG 529 L241306 Reach Twp. 40.0 7,000 S 14 40 2HG Northumberland & Durham County 699 L310202 Campbellford 20.0 3,600 S, L 2 10 2HK 717 L311501 Cramahe Twp. 2,000 S 5 25 2HK 704 L311001 Alnwick Twp. 1.8 696 S 10 2HJ 705 L311002 Alnwick Twp. 31/8/72 0.2 696 S 2HJ 706 L311101 Brighton Twp. 0.04 800 S 2 7 2HK 707 L311102 Brighton Twp. 0.6 2,000 S 6 5 2HK 708 L311103 Brighton Twp. Application Cancelled 20.0 11,800 S 30 15 2HK 709 L311201 Cartwright Twp. 20.0 2,000 S 3 10 2HK 710 L311202 Cartwright Twp. 8.0 S, L 40 t 3 2HK 711 L311302 Cavan Twp. 30/4/72 10.0 2,400 S 5 2HJ 712 L311303 Cavan Twp. 1.2 950 S 2/ wk 2HJ 719 L311503 Cramahe Twp. 4.8 1,560 S 4 40 2HK 720 L311504 Cramahe Twp. 1.2 2,000 S 5 25 2HK 727 L311704 Haldimand Twp, 0.1 200 S 1/wk 5 2HK 731 L311802 Hamilton Twp. 3.6 2,500 S 5-10 2HJ 732 L311803 Hamilton Twp. 0.8 1,500 S 3-5 2HJ 738 L312001 Manvers Twp. 0.6 750 S ¼ 10 2HH 739 L312002 Manvers Twp. 0.8 750 S ¼ 10 2HH 740 L312003 Manvers Twp. 1.6 700 S ¼ 10 2HH

35 TABLE 8 (cont'd): WASTE DISPOSAL SITES IN THE TRENT-MOIRA SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 11)

Area Population Waste 1971 NO. MOE No. Municipality Opened Closed Volume Watershed (ha) Served Type Project Life 741 312004 Manvers Twp. 10/8/71 Never had 100 L 5 2HH Licence 742 L312101 Twp. of S. Monaghan 30/6/71 2HJ 743 L312102 Twp. of S. Monaghan 4.5 800 S 1 25 2HJ 744 L312201 Murray Twp. 31/7/72 0.4 3,500 S 2 1 2HK 745 L312202 Murray Twp. 5.2 2,000 S 1 15 2HK 746 L3],2204 Murray Twp. 10/4/72 40.0 900(factory) S 10-12 20 2HK 747 L312301 Percy Twp. 20.0 900 S 1 50 2HK 748 312302 Percy Twp. 0.6 2,000 S 15 5 2HK 749 L312401 Seymour Twp. 13.2 2,758 S ½ 25 2HK 750 L312402 Seymour Twp. 15/8/71 0.8 800 (summer) S 4 15 2HK 130 Victoria County 761 L320101 Lindsay 12.0 12,000 S 30 2 2HH 762 L320201 Bobcaygeon 2HH 766 L321003 Eldon Twp. Fall/73 2.0 1,000 S 2 10 2HF 768 L321102 Emily Twp. 40.0 3,004 S 5 30 2HH 769 L321203 Fenelon Twp. 31/5/72 0.8 2,273 S 2HF 770 L321204 Fenelon Twp. 2HF 771 L321205 Fenelon Twp. 0.4 300 (summer) S c - ¼ 2HH 50 772 L321206 Fenelon Twp. 24/2/72 20.0 2,509 S 20 2HF 773 L321207 Fenelon Twp. 21/12/72 0.1 200 S 10 2HH 777 L321401 Mariposa Twp. 20.0 3,000 2HG 778 L321402 Mariposa Twp. 8.0 3,000 S 2HG 779 L321501 Ops Twp. 15/10/71 2HH 780 L321601 Somerville Twp. Fall/73 2.0 210 S,L,H ½ 2 2HF 781 L321602 Somerville Twp. 2.8 400 S 20 2HF 782 L321603 Somerville Twp. 15/7/72 3.6 1,000 S 2½ 2 2HF 783 L321604 Somerville Twp. 2/5/72 16.0 7,000(summer) S 3 30 2HF 2,000 784 L321605 Somerville Twp. S 2HF 785 L321701 Verulam Twp. 31/5/73 57.2 1,400 S 50-60 10 2HH 786 L321703 Verulam Twp. 40.0 10,000 (summer) S 2HH 400 Information not presented indicates data not available, unless otherwise indicated. acres = hectares (ha) x 2.471

36 SUB-BASIN 11: TRENT-MOIRA

Waste disposal sites in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin are listed in Table 8. In comparison to the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin, the sites in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin are greater in number, but smaller in size and in the amount of waste handled. The column headings in Table 8 were described above.

Solid waste is handled at 95 percent of the sites. Eleven sites dispose of liquid waste. One liquid disposal site is listed as a hazardous waste disposal area, but was closed in 1973. Most of the sites serve small communities with populations less than 5,000, and many serve populations less than 1,000.

SUMMARY

Table 9 presents a summary of waste disposal sites for the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin. There are 303 active waste disposal sites in the basin which cover a land area of about 2,900 ha (7166 acres). Approximately 17,000 t (37.4 million lb) of waste are applied to these sites daily. In addition, there are 58 closed sites which occupy about 200 ha (494 acres) of land.

The Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin has half as many active waste disposal sites as the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin. However, they occupy more land and handle 28 times as much as the sites in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin.

TABLE 9: WASTE DISPOSAL SUMMARY FOR THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

No. Active Approx. Area Volume No Closed Approx. Area Sites (ha) (t/d) Sites (ha) Western Ontario 102 1,700 16,600 10 50 Sub-Basin Trent-Moira 201 1,200 600 48 150 Sub-Basin Total Canadian 303 2,900 17,200 58 200 Lake Ontario Basin acres = hectares (ha) x 2.471 pounds/day (lb/d) = tonnes/day (t/d) x 2200

37 EROSION

LAKESHORE EROSION

The following information on lakeshore erosion on Lake Ontario was excerpted from the Canada-Ontario Great Lakes Shore Damage Survey Technical Report (2).

Short-term rates of erosion were calculated by comparing profiles established as early as 1971 to those re-surveyed in 1973. The resultant data reflect the volume of material change which occurred during a peak water level stage on the Great Lakes shoreline.

There are 111 km (69 mi) of measured shoreline on the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin which have erosion rates greater than 0.5 m3/m/m/yr.* Table 10 lists the areas with their reach lengths and average erosion rates.

TABLE 10: REACHES IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN WITH EROSION RATES GREATER THAN 0.5 m3/m/m/yr

Annual County or Regional Town, City Length Net Location Rate Municipality Township (km) Volume (m3) (m3/m/m)

Niagara-on-the bluffs 36.61 3.77 963,700 Niagara Lake to Grimsby beach 3.76 31.78

Halton Burlington beach strip 2.41 1.06 3,130

Northumberland Cramahe Brighton 10.14 3.48 79,152 remainder 58.23 1.23 604,358 north shore miles (mi) = kilometers (km) x 0.62 cubic yards (yd3) = cubic meters (m3) x 1.308

The heaviest erosion occurred between the towns of Niagara-on-the-Lake and Grimsby, where the bluffs eroded at a rate of 3.77 m3/m/m/yr. Beach material in these areas also eroded at a relatively high rate of 31.78 m3/m/m/yr.

______* Cubic meters of eroded material per 'linear meter of shoreline per vertical meter of bluff height per year.

38 Erosion is minimal along the north shore of Lake Ontario, although some areas in the Regional Municipality of Durham and the village of Brighton suffered significant erosion losses. The weighted average for these areas on the north shore was 1.23 m3/m/m/yr, constituting an eroded volume of 604,358 m3 (790,500 yd3).

The total volume eroded from the Canadian Lake Ontario shoreline during the period November 1972 to November 1973, was 1,698,986 m3 (2.22 million yd3). Assuming an average density of 2.6, this means that 4.4 million t (9.7 billion lb) of material was eroded during this period.

RIVERBANK EROSION

A riverbank erosion study is being conducted as part of the Canadian PLUARG Task C effort. The objective of this study was to gain a better understanding of bank recession mechanisms and to determine the qualities and quantities of materials eroded on a representative number of sites, such that actual contributions of sediment to streams may be estimated.

The results of the riverbank erosion study were not available for inclusion in this report. However, the analysis of data collected during the preliminary phase suggested that average erosion on streambanks in southern Ontario involved relatively small quantities, probably in the neighbourhood of 1 to 2 cm (0.4-0.8 in) laterally per year.

INTENSIVE LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS

The following information on intensive livestock operations in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin was obtained from a study carried out by Agriculture Canada (3). Details concerning methodology appear in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

Intensive livestock operations are defined as follows: 75 or more dairy cattle; 150 or more beef cattle; 300 or more swine; and 30,000 or more poultry. Based on these criteria, there are 60 intensive poultry operations, 132 intensive cattle operations, and 177 intensive swine operations in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin (Table 11). The poultry operations are concentrated in the Niagara Peninsula.

TABLE 11: INTENSIVE LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

Poultry Cattle Swine Lake Ontario 60 132 177 Total Great Lakes 165 1,002 834

39 HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS

INTRODUCTION

The information on non-sewered residential areas was taken from a study conducted for Environment Canada (1). Details of the methodology are presented in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

Since this study was to include both permanent and seasonal residences, compact groupings of cottages or chalets were included. In the case of seasonal residences, the number of units was tabulated. This was translated to an equivalent population, using a factor of 3.5 persons per unit. This same practice was followed for permanent residences in some municipalities. These estimated populations are included under the heading "total population" in the Tables.

SUB-BASIN 10: WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO

High density, non-sewered residential areas in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin are listed in Table 12. A total population of 132,400 resides in these areas. The average population per non-sewered residential area is 752. However, some areas have populations as large as 10,000.

SUB-BASIN 11: TRENT-MOIRA

Table 13 presents a listing of the high density non-sewered residential areas in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin. There are 249 such areas, with a total non-sewered population of 120,300. The average population per area is 483, considerably less than the average of 752 in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin. The largest non-sewered residential area is located in Frontenac County on Highway 33, west of Kingston, where 14,000 persons reside.

SUMMARY

Approximately 252,600 persons live in high density, non-sewered residential areas in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin. This represents 6 percent of the total Lake Ontario Basin population. About 52 percent of the non-sewered residential area population is located in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin, with the remainder in the Trent-Moira Basin.

40 TABLE 12: HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN (SUB-BASIN 10)

KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Niagara County Port Colborne 2HA Hwy 3 @ Rd 5 175 175 " " Con. II, Lot 11-12 645 645 “ “ II, Lot 17-18 441 441 " “ Rd.5, E. of City 50 50 " “ Hwy.3, E. of City 200 200 " Rd.140, E. of City 200 200 " " Nickel Beach Area 80 80 " “ Poll. Sub.38, N.W. Corner 834 834 Niagara-on-the- 2HA Niagara 1,000 1,000 Lake " Poll. Sub. 10, Lakeshore Rd. 500 500 " " Poll. Sub.16 532 532 " " St. David's Area 533 533 " " Queenston Area 540 540 " " Virgil Area 1,000 1,000 Niagara Falls 2HA City of Niagara Falls 4,300 4,300 Thorold 2HA Port Robinson 400 400 " “ Allanburg 200 200 " " S.& E. of Thorold 1,700 1,700 " “ Thorold South area 600 600 Fort Erie 2HA Douglastown 200 200 " " Stevensville 350 350 " " W. of Crystal Beach 302 302 " " N. of Crystal Beach 1,900 1,900 " " Poll. Subs. 2-18 & Wildwood 387 387 " " Thunderbay - Wavecrest 550 550 " " N. of Wavecrest 800 800 " " Wavecrest - Bertie Bay 590 590 " " Poll. Subs.2-26 468 468 " " N. of Erie Beach 274 274 “ " Poll. Subs.2-8 & 2-20 300 300

41 TABLE 12 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 10) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Pelham 2HA Fenwick Area 694 694 " " W. of Fonthill 527 527 " ” E. of Fenwick 640 640 Wainfleet 2HA Camelot Beach 300 100 1,150 " “ Burnaby & Morgan's Point 300 75 1,125 " “ Burnaby Rd. & Hwy. 3 75 75 " " Long Beach 400 75 1,475 " “ Wainfleet 175 175 " " Winger 40 40 Lincoln 2HA Jordan 124 124 " " Jordan Station 353 353 " “ Vineland 1,200 1,200 " " Campden 184 184 " " Beamsville Area 4,297 4,297 West Lincoln 2HA Near Smithville 293 293 " “ Rd. 12, Con. VIII 20 70 " " Rds. 6 & 65 50 50 " " Attercliff 75 75 "“Bismark 4040 " “ St. Anns 200 200 " " Boyle Rd.& Rd. 63 45 45 " “ Wellandport 250 250 " “ Caistorville 150 150 " “ Rd. 23 & Con. VII 75 75 Grimsby 2HA E. of Grimsby 2,677 2,677 " " W. of Grimsby 1,900 1,900 St. Catharines 2HA Perimeter of City 2,700 2,700 Port Colbourne 2HA Humberstone 50 50 " “ Yager Rd, Fords Rd, Babion Rd. 666 666 " " Troop Rd, Neef Rd, Fords Rd. 394 394

42 TABLE 12 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 10) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Port Colbourne 2HA Sharkston, Michael & Need Rds. 75 75 “ “ Empire, Garrison, Beath Rds. 538 538 Durham County Clarke 2HD Orono 1,137 1,137 " “ Newtonville 110 110 ““Kendall 7575 Hope 2HD Garden Hill 74 74 " “ Campbellcroft 40 40 “ “ Welcome 186 186 “ " Dale 34 34 Darlington 2HD Courtice 150 150 “ “ Hampton 200 200 " “ Enniskillen 60 60 “ “ Mitchell Corners 150 150 Dufferin County Mono 2HB N. of Orangeville 75 75 " " E. of Orangeville 235 235 York County King 2HC King City 2,269 2,269 " " Laskay 164 164 “ “ Nobleton 1,356 1,356 Whitchurch- Stouffville 2HC Bloomington 89 89 “ “ Preston Lake 274 274 " “ Stouffville 500 500 " " Gormley 242 242 " “ Ringwood 258 258 Town of 2HC Dixon's Hill 160 160 Markham “ Victoria Square 199 199

43 TABLE 12 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 10) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Town of 2HC Buttonville 228 228 Markham " Cachet Country Club 706 706 " “ Unionville 520 520 City 2HC Toronto Islands 246 861 Etobicoke 2HC 68 238 North York 2HC Bridle Path 100 350 " " Yonge 75 262 King 2HC Eversley 60 60 " King Cross Estate 275 275 Vaughan 2HC Elder Mills 100 100 " " Kleinburg 950 950 " " Teston 117 117 " " Maple 1,984 1,984 " " Nashville 199 199 Wentworth County W. Flamborough 2HB Freelton 150 525 " " Strabane 35 122 " " Rd. 4 Con. VI-VII 18 63 " " Rd. 4 Con. V-VI 29 102 " " Milgrave Area 125 438 " " Rd. 5 Con. III-IV 31 108 " " Rd.4 Con.II 40 140 " " Bullock's Corner 380 1,330 ""W. Flamborough2277 " " Christie's Corner 12 42 Binbrook 2HA Binbrook Area 160 560 " “ Sinclairville Area 30 105 " " Woodburn Area 25 88 " " N.E. Corner Twp. 120 420

44 TABLE 12 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 10) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Saltfleet 2HA Shoreline 620 2,170 " “ N. of Hwy. 8 820 2,870 " " S. of Mount Albion 100 350 ““Tayleyton1552 “ “ S. of Stoney Creek 25 88 Glanford 2HB North 2 Concessions 330 1,155 " 2HA Mount Hope Area 230 805 “ “ M. Glanford Area 37 130 “ “ North 2 Concessions 512 1,792 E. Flamborough 2HB E. of Waterdown 320 1,120 " “ W. of Waterdown 200 700 " “ Rds. 5 & 42 50 175 " “ Flamborough Centre 60 210 " “ Rd. 8 Con. IV-V 53 186 “ “ Rd. 5 & Hwy. 6 37 129 " " Mountsburg 15 52 " " Carlisle & Flamborough 250 875 " " Harper's Corners 29 102 Beverly 2HB Con. VIII 50 175 Ancaster 2HB Con. I - III Lots 31-50 2,109 7,381 " “ Mineral Springs 30 105 " " Southcote 10 35 Northumberland County Hamilton 2HD Baltimore 250 250 " “ Bewdley 365 365 " “ Camborne 100 100 " " Cold Springs 189 189 " “ Coverdale 900 900 " " W. of Colborne 75 75 " “ Creighton Heights 175 175

45 TABLE 12 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 10) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Saltfleet 2HA Shoreline 620 2,170 " " N. of Hwy. 8 820 2,870 " " S. of Mount Albion 100 350 " " Tayleyton -15 52 " " S. of Stoney Creek 25 88 Glanford 2HB North 2 Concessions 330 1,155 " “ Mount Hope Area 230 805 " “ M. Glanford Area 37 130 “ “ North 2 Concessions 512 1,792 E. Flamborough 2HB E. of Waterdown 320 1,120 " “ W. of Waterdown 200 700 " “ Rds. 5 & 42 50 175 " “ Flamborough Centre 60 210 " “ Rd. 8 Con. IV-V 53 186 " “ Rd. 5 & Hwy. 6 37 129 " “ Mountsburg 15 52 " “ Carlisle & Flamborough 250 875 " “ Harper's Corners 29 102 Beverly 2HB Con. VIII 50 175 Ancaster 2HB Con. I - III Lots 31-50 2,109 7,381 “ “ Mineral Springs 30 105 “ “ Southcote 10 35 Northumberland County Hamilton 2HD Baltimore 250 250 " “ Bewdley 365 365 " “ Camborne 100 100 " “ Cold Springs 189 189 " “ Coverdale 900 900 " “ W. of Colborne 75 75 " “ Creighton Heights 175 175

46 TABLE 12 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 10) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Murray 2HD 12 O'Clock Point 500 500 Brighton 2HD W. Emd. Murray Canal 170 595 " “ " 350 350 Cramahe 2HD Colborne 1,000 1,000 Halton County Oakville 2HB Part of Town. 445 445 " “ Part of Town. 2,400 2,400 Esquesing 2HB Part of Town. 9,600 9,600 Burlington 2HB Part of Town. 1,025 1,025 Nassagaweya 2HB Part of Town. 3,409 3,409 Haldimand County Camborough 2HA Camborough 20 70 " “ Attercliffe Station 30 105 Moulton 2HA Lowbanks 14 49 Seneca 2HA Blackheath 10 35 Wellington County Erin 2HB Hillsburg 893 893 " " South of Erin 35 35 Puslinch 2HB Morriston 214 214 Peel County Caledon 2HB Alton 491 491 " “ Caledon 373 373 " “ Inglewood 365 365 Mississauga 2HB Streetsville 106 106 Albion 2HC Palgrave 189 189

47 TABLE 12 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 10) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Albion 2HC Caledon East 944 944 Toronto Gore 2HC 1,274 1,274 Chinguacousy 2HC 7,700 7,700 Ontario County Pickering 2HC Claremont 100 350 " “ Greenwood 10 35 " “ Brougham 20 70 " “ Green River 30 105 " “ Brock Road 50 175 "" 10,000 10,000 "" 5,000 5,000 Whitby 2HD Taunton 15 52 " “ Columbus 55 192 " “ Raglan 40 140

132,362 Sub-Basin 10 Total

Information not presented indicates data not available, unless otherwise indicated.

48 TABLE 13: HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Frontenac County Portland 2HM Verona 300 300 Kennebac 2HM Arden 50 175 "“Henderson1035 Olden 2HM Mountain Grove 20 70 Pittsburgh 2MA Joyceville 10 35 " “ Barriefield 100 350 " “ Brewers Mills 15 52 “ " Eastview 30 105 Howe Island 2MA Howe Island 200 168 700 Wolfe Island 2MA Wolfe Island 623 1,172 2,180 Loughborough 2MA Perth Road 25 88 " 2HM Sydenham 200 700 “ " Wilmer 10 35 Storrington 2MA Battersea 75 262 " " Sunbury 30 105 “ “ Inverary 75 262 Kingston 2HM Glenburnie 50 175 " “ Elginburg 30 105 " “ Glenvale 10 35 " “ Hwy 33 E. of Collins Bay 50 175 " “ Hwy. 33 W. of Kingston 4,000 14,000 “ “ Cataraqui 100 350 " Westbrooke 300 1,050 Portland 2HM Harrowsmith 200 200

49 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Durham County Manvers 2HG Janetville 60 210 " “ Pontypool 200 200 " " Bethany 300 300 Cartwright 2HG Blackstock 350 350 " " Caesarea 200 200 " " Nestleton 100 100 Cavan 2HJ Millbrook 873 873 Victoria County Fenelon 2HF S. of Isaacs Glen 12 42 " " South Bay Area 105 467 " “ Long Beach 120 420 " " Sturgeon Point 110 385 " " Daytona Beach 60 210 " “ Ellery Beach 40 140 Somerville 2HF Cococonk 459 459 " " Kinmount 250 250 " “ Burnt River 100 100 Laxton 2HF Norland 150 150 Bexley 2HF Rosedair 75 262 OPS 2HG Hwy. 7 & Rd. 4 10 35 Mariposa 2HG Taylors Corner 12 42 " " Oakwood 250 250 " " Little Britain 100 350 Lindsay 2HH S.E. Corner - E. of River 40 140 “ " S.E. Corner - E. of River 30 105 " “ S.E. Corner - E. of River 10 35 " " E. of Hwy. 36 12 42

50 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Lindsay 2HH S.E. of Lindsay 20 70 ""S.W. of Lindsay1035 Leeds County Bastard 2MA Delta 204 714 " " Lower Beverly Lake 100 350 " " Phillipsville 15 52 Rear of Leeds 2MA Seeley's Bay 160 566 Lansdowne “ Lyndhurst 100 350 " " Red Horse & Charleston L. 200 700 South Crosby 2MA South Crosby Township 540 1,890 " " Jones Falls 15 52 " “ Newboro 141 269 494 " " Morton 25 87 " " Elgin 165 336 578 Rear of Yonge 2MA Athens 486 968 1,701 & Escott “ South of Charleston 158 553 Front of Leeds 2MA Rd. 10 @ River 40 140 & Lansdowne " Admiralty Island 140 490 Haliburton County Harburn 2HF Haliburton Lake 30 105 Havelock 2HF Kennisis Lake 20 70 Stanhope 2HF Hall's Lake 25 87 Cardiff 2HK Cardiff 200 700 Minden 2HF Minden 1,200 1,200 ""Carnarvon2070 Guilford 2HF West Guilford 150 525 " " Eagle Lake 125 438 Dysart 2HF Haliburton Area 1,800 1,800 “ “ Donald 10 35 Snowdon 2HF Gelert 10 35

51 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Glamorgan 2HF Gooderham Arc 400 400 Monmouth 2HF Wilberforce 700 700 " “ Tory Hill 40 140 Hastings County Tyendinaga 2HM Blessington 25 25 " " Read 75 75 " “ Lonsdale 50 50 "“Kingsford 4040 " " Shannonville 250 250 " " 401 Interchange 94 40 40 Thurlow 2HM Point Anne 350 350 " 2HL Foxborough 850 850 “ “ Honeywell Corners 50 50 " “ Thresher Corners 150 150 " “ Plainfield 100 100 " “ Lotta 60 60 " " Corbyville 600 600 " “ East of Belleville 250 250 Sidney 2HL Chatterton 375 375 " “ Wallbridge 100 100 " " Rd. 5A 500 500 " “ Cannifton Area 700 700 " “ Bayside 350 350 " “ Makatewis Area 1,800 1,800 Wollaston 2HK Rose Island 25 25 " Coe Hill 150 150 Cashel 2HK Gunter 25 25

52 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Tudor 2HL Millbridge 30 30 Madoc 2HL Bannockburn 75 75 " " Eldorado 35 35 Elzevir 2HL Queensborough 100 100 " " Actinolite 80 80 Hungerford 2HL Sulphide 75 75 ""Stoco 5050 " “ Marlbank 150 150 " “ Thomasburg 75 75 Huntingdon 2HL Moira 50 50 " Crookston 20 20 Rawdon 2HK H.W. Corner Township 20 70 " Springbrook 350 350 " " Harold 25 25 " “ Wellman 50 50 Lennox & Addington Counties N. Fredericksburgh 2HM S. of Napanee 300 1,050 S. Fredericksburgh 2HM Sundhurst 60 210 " Long Beach 100 350 Adolphustown 2HM Bass Cove 50 175 " “ Trumper Pt. 30 105 " " West Marvin 40 140 ““Dorland2070 " “ Adolphustown 10 35 Ernestown 2HM Bath 300 1,050 " “ Marvin 20 70 " " Millhaven 75 262 " " Amherstview 1,500 5,250 " “ Odessa 250 875 " “ Switzerville 15 52

53 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Ernestown 2HM Thorpe 10 35 " “ Violet 50 175 " “ Wilton 60 210 Sheffield 2HM Erinsville 20 70 " “ Tamworth 200 700 Camden East 2HM Colebrook 35 122 " “ Yarker 100 350 " “ Newburg 250 875 " “ Strathcona 50 175 " “ Camden East 30 105 " “ Moscow 20 70 " “ Centreville 25 88 " “ Enterprise 200 700 Richmond 2HM Selby 25 88 " “ Roblin 25 88 " “ Parkview (Napanee) 200 700 Kaladar 2HM Northbrook 100 350 " “ Kaladar 100 350 " “ Flinton 50 175 Anglesea 2HM Cloyne 110 385 Ontario County Reach 2HG Epsom 100 100 " “ Utica 100 100 " “ Prince Albert 400 400 Scugog 2HG - 742 742 Reach 2HG Seagrave 200 200

54 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Reach 2HG Greenbank 275 275 " " Manchester 200 200 Brock 2HG Manilla 100 100 Northumberland County Hamilton 2HJ Gores Landing 175 175 " “ Harwood 200 200 Brighton 2HK Orland 30 30 " " Codrington 30 30 Seymour 2HK N.W. Corner Township 200 300 1,000 "“Myersburg 4040 " " S.W. Corner Township 200 700 " “ Willson Island 500 500 " “ S.E. Corner Township 100 350 Percy 2HK Hastings 845 845 " “ Warkworth 600 600 Cramahe 2HK Castleton 272 272 Alnwick 2HK Roseneath 175 175 " 2HJ S. Shore Rice Lake 3,000 10,500 Murray 2HK Stockdale 65 65 " “ Wooler 100 100 " “ S. of Wooler 60 60 " " N.W. of Trenton 400 400 Prince Edward County Hallowell 2HE N. of Picton 150 150 " “ West Lake 222 777

55 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11 ) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Athol 2HE Cherry Valley 200 200 " “ Lake Ontario Shore 112 392 S. Marysburg 2HE Lake Ontario Shore 76 266 N. Marysburg 2HE Prince Edward Bay 144 504 Sophiasburg 2HE Demoretsville 155 155 " “ North Port 90 90 " “ Bay of Quinte 183 640 Hillier 2HE West Consecon 175 175 “ " Hillier 75 75 “ “ Wellington 1,006 1,006 " “ Lake Ontario Shoreline 164 574 Ameliasburgh 2HE Ameliasburgh 175 175 " " Rednersville 175 175 " “ Rossmore 350 350 " " Hwy. 14 @ Rd.28 120 120 " “ Carrying Place 150 150 " “ Consecon 300 300 " “ Bay of Quinte 600 2,100 Peterborough County Galway 2HF Crystal Lake 500 1,725 " “ White Lake 25 87 " 2HH DeGaulle Lake 25 88 " “ Bass Lake 40 140 Cavendish 2HF Salmon Lake 100 350 " " Fortescue Lake 60 210

56 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Cavendish 2HH Galloway Lake 20 70 " " Pencil Lake 70 245 " " Bottle Lake 4 14 " “ Catchaloma & Mississauga 1,300 4,550 “ " Lake 35 122 Ansthruther 2HH Apsley 350 350 Smith 2HH Bridgenorth 1,500 1,500 " “ Youngs Point 200 200 “ " Buckhorn 60 60 " “ Fife Bay 400 1,400 " “ Woodland Acres 248 868 " “ Peterborough - Terview Hts. 100 350 " “ Peterborough - Village Mead 40 140 " “ Peterborough 60 210 Peterborough County Ennismore 2HH Ennismore 20 70 "“Rd.162587 “ " End Rd. 16 175 612 " “ N. of Fowlers Cor. 55 192 Douro 2HH Youngs Point 100 350 " " Katchawano Lake 50 175 " “ Douro 75 262 Dummer 2HH S. Sode Stoney Lake 750 2,625 " 2HJ Warsaw 100 350 Harvey 2HH Buckhorn 125 125 " “ Sandy Lake 70 245 " “ Big Bald Lake 103 360

57 TABLE 13 (cont'd): HIGH DENSITY, NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN THE TRENT-MOIRA RIVERS SUB-BASIN

(SUB-BASIN 11) KNOWN TOTAL TOWNSHIP BASIN LOCATION UNITS POPULATION POPULATION Harvey 2HH Little Bald Lake 300 1,050 " “ Little Bald Lake 30 105 " " Black Duck Bay 100 350 “ " Burleigh Falls 100 100 " " Chief Island 30 105 " " N. Side Buckhorn Lake 300 1,050 " Lakehurst 10 Asphodel 2HJ Norwood 1,190 1,190 " “ Westwood 30 105 “ " Birdsall 100 350 " " N. Side Trent River 300 1,050 " “ E. of Hastings 25 87 " “ Norwood Area 75 262 Belmont 2HK Cordova Mines 100 100 " " Belmont Lake South 75 10 272 " “ Belmont Lake South 300 1,050 " “ Havelock 1,225 1,225 Methuen 2HK Nephton 100 100 Sub-Basin 11 Total 120,281

Information not presented indicates data not available, unless otherwise indicated.

58 REFERENCES

1. Crysler & Lathem. Land Drainage Reference Study Task B2: Mine Tailings Disposal Sites, te Disposal Sites, Non-Sewered Residential Areas, Land Fill Sites, prepared for Canada Department of the Environment.

2. Environment Canada and Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Canada-Ontario Great Lakes Shore Damage Survey Technical Report, October 1975.

3. Coote, D.R., E.M. MacDonald, and M.D. Rigby. A Selective Inventory of Large Livestock Operations, Southern Ontario, Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, 1974.

4 MATERIALS USAGE

INTRODUCTION

The materials initially identified in this inventory were chosen because they may influence the quality of drainage water in the Lake Ontario Basin. These materials included pesticides, fertilizers, agricultural manures, road salts and agricultural lime and liming materials. However, lime was subsequently deleted in the following discussion because of its limited use.

The methodology used in the materials usage inventory is described in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

AGRICULTURAL PESTICIDES

Information on the agricultural use of pesticides is presented in terms of kg of active chemical used. Pesticides were divided into five groups as follows: insecticides; fungicides; triazine herbicides; phenoxy herbicides; and herbicides other than triazine and phenoxy. The data are presented in Table 14.

INSECTICIDES

Statistics on the use of insecticides in the two major Canadian Lake Ontario Sub-Basins are presented in Table 14. Insecticides are used to a much greater extent in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin than in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin. The area of heaviest use is the Niagara Fruit Belt. About 75 percent of the total amount of insecticides used in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin is used on fruits and vegetables in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin. This sub-basin receives about 190,400 kg/a (419,780 lb/a) of insecticides, while the Trent-Moira Sub- Basin receives only about 50,800 kg/a (112,000 lb/a).

FUNGICIDES

The amounts of fungicides used in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basins are also listed in Table 14. Virtually all of the fungicide (> 99 percent) is applied to fruits and vegetables, as opposed to their application to field crops. Use of fungicides is about ten times greater in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin than in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin. Most of the fungicides are used in the Niagara Region.

About 210,600 kg (464,290 lb) of fungicide are used annually in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin, compared with 23,400 kg (51,600 lb) in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin.

61 TABLE 14: USE OF PESTICIDES IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

(kg of active chemical)

PHENOXY TRIAZINE OTHER TYPES FUNGICIDES Sub-Basin Field Road- Fruit & Field Fruit Field Fruit & Field Fruit Crops Sides Veg. Crops & Veg. Crops Veg. Crops & Veg. Western 39,650 6,100 2,900 78,400 2,400 49,800 17,800 50 210,500 Ontario

Trent-Moira 28,300 8,400 1,450 55,500 500 34,200 560 30 23,400 Total Canadian Lake Ontario 67,950 14,500 4,350 133,900 2,900 84,000 18,360 80 233,900 Basin pounds (lb) = kilograms (kg) x 2.2046

62 HERBICIDES

Herbicides were separated into three groups according to their chemical composition: phenoxy; triazine; and other types. A total of about 326,000 kg (718,700 lb) of herbicides are applied to agricultural lands in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin annually (Table 14). The breakdown, according to chemical composition, is approximately as follows: phenoxy 86,800 kg (191,360 lb); triazine 136,800 kg (301,590 lb); and other types 102,400 kg (225,750 lb).

The use of herbicides in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin is about 197,000 kg (434,310 lb), 60 percent of the total.

In contrast to fungicides and insecticides, which are used mainly on fruits and vegetables, 88 percent of the herbicides are used on field crops. Only about eight percent of the herbicides are used on fruits and vegetables, while four percent are used for weed control along road sides.

COMMERCIAL FERTILIZERS AND AGRICULTURAL MANURES

Information on the production and/or usage of agricultural manures and fertilizers in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin is presented in terms of their nutrient content. The nutrient input from these materials is reported by weight and density (kg/ha of improved farmland and/or all land), and includes nutrients from fertilizer usage, animal manure production, and total nutrients from agricultural manures and fertilizers.

Tables 15 and 16 present information on farmland use and livestock numbers in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin. The two major sub-basins have approximately equal amounts of improved farmland. However, in terms of total land area, the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin is more than twice as large as the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin.

The Trent-Moira Sub-Basin has more cattle than the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin, but less swine, poultry, and other livestock.

TABLE 15: FARM LAND USE IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

Total Total Improved Crop- Total Wood- Sub-Basin Land Farmland Farmland Land Pasture Land Western Ontario 881,000 493,120 372,140 279,030 105,270 39,710 Trent-Moira 2,061,900 652,480 335,210 220,970 218,730 117,590

Total Canadian 2,942,900 1,145,600 707,350 500,000 324,000 157,300 Lake Ontario Basin acres = hectares (ha) x 2.471

63 TABLE 16: LIVESTOCK NUMBERS IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

Sub- Total Dairy Beef Swine Poultry Others Basin Cattle Cattle Cattle Western Ontario 223,564 87,833 35,143 176,301 6,692,231 164,370 Trent-Moira 275,536 89,967 48,857 88,699 1,442,219 49,900 Total Canadian 499,100 177,800 84,000 265,000 9,134,219 214,270 Lake Ontario Basin

COMMERCIAL FERTILIZERS

Table 17 lists the weight (kg) of fertilizer nutrients applied to land in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin. The Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin receives approximately twice as much nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium from fertilizer as does the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin.\

TABLE 17: TOTAL NUTRIENTS FROM COMMERCIAL FERTILIZER

(kg)

Sub-Basin N P2O5 K2O Western Ontario 9,033,900 6,476,300 6,884,700 Trent-Moira 4,739,500 3,395,500 3,606,100 Total Canadian Lake 13,773,400 9,871,800 10,490,800 Ontario Basin pounds (lb) = kilograms (kg) x 2.2046

The usage of fertilizer nutrients is expressed in terms of kg/ha of improved land and total land in Table 18. The density of fertilizer use is higher in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin than in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin. The average density of fertilizer nutrient usage for the Canadian Lake

Ontario Basin is 19.5 kg nitrogen (43 lb), 14.0 kg phosphorus (P2O5) (31 lb), and 14.8 kg potassium

(K2O) (33 lb) per ha of improved farmland. The density of fertilizer nutrients per ha of total land is 4.7 kg nitrogen (10 lb); 3.4 kg phosphorus (P2O5)(7.5 lb) and 3.6 kg potassium (K2O) (8 lb).

64 TABLE 18: ESTIMATED ANNUAL USAGE OF FERTILIZER NUTRIENTS

(kg/improved ha) (kg/total ha) Sub-Basin NP2O5 K2ONP2O5 K2O Western Ontario 24.3 17.4 18.5 10.3 7.4 7.8 Trent-Moira 14.1 10.1 10.8 2.3 1.7 1.8 Average of Canadian 19.5 14.0 14.8 4.7 3.4 3.6 Lake Ontario Basin pounds/acre (lb/acre) = kilograms /hectare (kg/ha) x 0.8922

AGRICULTURAL MANURES

The total nutrients from manure in the two major sub-basins in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin are listed in Table 19. The amount of each nutrient is slightly higher in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin than in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin; however, the differential is much smaller for manure nutrients than it is for fertilizer nutrients (see Table 17).

Manure contributes about 23,700 t/a nitrogen (52.1 million lb/a), while fertilizers account for about 13,800 t/a (30.4 million lb/a). The pattern is similar for potassium (K2O), with 23,000 t/a (50.6 million lb/a) coming from manure and 10,500 t/a (23.1 million lb) from fertilizers. Phosphorus

(P2O5) is split more equally with 10,600 t/a (23.3 million lb/a) attributed to manure and 9,900 t/a (21.8 million lb/a) to fertilizers.

TABLE 19: ANNUAL TOTAL NUTRIENTS FROM AGRICULTURAL MANURE

(kg) Sub-Basin NP2O5 K2O Western Lake Ontario 12,998,800 5,836,300 11,954,700 Trent-Moira 9,680,850 4,768,800 10,954,400 Total Canadian Lake Ontario 22,679,700 10,605,100 22,909,100 Basin pounds (lb) = kilograms (kg) x 2.2046

65 TABLE 20: ESTIMATED ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF MANURE NUTRIENTS

(kg/improved hectare) (kg/total ha)

Sub-Basin N P2O5 K2ONP2O5 K2O Western Lake Ontario34.915.732.114.86.613.6 Trent-Moira 28.914.232.74.72.35.3 Total Canadian 32.1 15.0 32.4 7.7 3.6 7.8 Lake Ontario Basin pound/acre (lb/acre) = kilogram/hectare (kg/ha) x 0.8922

COMBINED FERTILIZERS AND MANURES

The estimated annual total nutrients from commercial fertilizer usage and agricultural manure production are presented in Table 21. A total of 36,450 t nitrogen (80.2 million lb), 20,480 t phosphorus (P2O5) (45.0 million lb), and 33,400 t potassium (K2O) (73.5 million lb) are received by the Lake Ontario Basin from both Canadian fertilizers and agricultural manure on an annual basis.

TABLE 21: ESTIMATED ANNUAL TOTAL NUTRIENTS FROM FERTILIZER USAGE AND MANURE PRODUCTION (t/a)

Sub-Basin N P2O5 K2O Western Lake Ontario 22,030 12,310 18,840 Trent-Moira 14,420 8,110 14,560 Total Canadian Lake Ontario Basin 36,450 20,480 33,400 pounds (lb) = tonnes (t) x 2200

ROAD SALTS

The data presented in Table 22 is a comprehensive summary of salt use in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin. The salt indicated is rock salt or sodium chloride, which is composed of 94 to 97 percent pure sodium chloride, plus small quantities of chlorides, carbonates and sulphates of calcium and magnesium.

Of the 741,620 t (1.6 billion lb) of salt used in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin, 629,560 t (1.4 billion lb), 85 percent of the total salt used in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin. This is due to the higher concentration of roads in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin than in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin. The intensity of salt use (kg/ha of land) is 711 in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin, 70

66 in the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin, and 298 in the entire Lake Ontario Basin.

TABLE 22: USE OF ROAD SALT IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

Intensity of Salt Use Sub-Basin Total Salt Use (t/a) Land Area (ha) (kg/ha) Western Lake Ontario 629,560 883,040 711 Trent-Moira 112,060 1,606,060 70 Total Canadian Lake 741,620 2,489,100 Average: 298 pounds (lb) = tonnes (t) x 2200 acres = hectares (ha) x 2.471 pounds/acre (lb/acre) = kilograms/hectare (kg/ha) x 0.8922

SUMMARY

The Canadian Lake Ontario Basin has a total land area of 2,942,872 ha (7.27 million acres), of which 707,350 ha (1.75 million acres) are improved farmland. The estimated annual total nutrients from fertilizer usage and manure production are: 36,450 t (80.2 million lb) nitrogen;

20,480 t phosphorus (P2O5) (45.0 million lb), and 33,400 t potassium (K2O) (73.5 million lb). About 38 percent of the nitrogen, 48 percent of the phosphorus and 31 percent of the potassium come from commercial fertilizers. The remainder of the nutrients are attributable to agricultural manure.

The estimated annual usage of fertilizer nutrients, in terms of kg/ha of improved farmland, is as follows: nitrogen - 19.5; phosphorus (P2O5) - 14.0; and potassium K2O) - 14.8. The estimated annual usage of manure nutrients, expressed in kg/ha of improved farmland, is nitrogen - 32.1; phosphorus (P2O5) - 15.0; and potassium (K2O) - 32.4.

Approximately 326 t (717,200 lb) herbicides are applied annually in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin; 234 t fungicides (514,800 lb); and 241 t insecticides (530,200 lb). Herbicides are used less in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin than in the Canadian Lake Erie Basin. The majority of the herbicides, 286 t (88 percent of the total herbicides used in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin), are applied to field crops, while almost all of the fungicides and insecticides are used on fruits and vegetables. The greatest use of fungicides, over 50 percent of the total amount, is in the Niagara region. Prince Edward, Northumberland, and Wentworth counties also have a high use of fungicides. As might be expected, the area of heaviest use of insecticides is also the Niagara Region.

67 It is estimated that a total of 741,620 t (1.6 billion lb) of salt are used on roads in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin in an average winter. The salt indicated is rock salt, or sodium chloride, which is composed of 94 to 97 percent pure sodium chloride plus small quantities of chlorides, carbonates, and sulphates of calcium and magnesium.

In the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin, the amounts of road salt used are very high relative to the Canadian Lake Erie or Lake Huron basins. This is attributed to the greater number of roads concentrated in the southwest corner of the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin. Actual application rates have decreased in the last ten years because of more conservative de-icing practices. However, the total amount of road salt used has increased because the total mileage of roads has increased.

68 SOURCE MATERIALS

PRIMARY SOURCE

Brubaker, J.E., and R.W. Green. Canadian Lake Ontario Drainage Basin Material Usage Inventory, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food and Agriculture Canada, February 1975.

SECONDARY SOURCES

Coote, D.R., E.M. MacDonald and G.J. Wall. Agricultural Land Uses, Livestock and Soils of the Canadian Great Lakes Basin Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, 1974.

Hore, F.R. and A.J. MacLean. CDA Task Force for Implementation of the Great Lakes Water Quality Programme: Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, 1973.

MacDonald, E.M. Material Usage Inventory; Fertilizers and Agricultural Manures: Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, 1975.

Statistics Canada. 1971 Census of Agriculture.

OTHER AGENCIES CONSULTED

Canadian Salt Company Ltd.

Crop Science Department, University of Guelph.

Domtar Chemicals Ltd., Sifto Salt Division.

Economics Branch, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food.

Iroquois Salt Products Ltd.

Maintenance Branch, Ontario Ministry of Transportation and Communications.

Soils and Crops Branch, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food.

Water Resources Branch, Ontario Ministry of the Environment.

5 FUTURE TRENDS

POPULATION

The population forecasts presented in Table 23 were compiled by the Regional Planning Branch of the Ontario Ministry of Treasury, Economics, and Intergovernmental Affairs (1). A basic assumption underlying these forecasts is that there will be no major intervention in current trends in the form of development projects or special government policies.

Table 23 contains population projections for the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin and its two major sub-basins, for the years 1980, 2001, and 2021. The general outcome of these projections is that the large urban complexes in the Western Ontario Sub-Basin, in particular the Toronto-Hamilton area, will have a much larger proportion of the Canadian Great Lakes Basin population in the future than they have now. The Canadian Lake Ontario Basin population is predicted to more than double over the forecast period, from 4,035,064 in 1971 to 8,118,689 in 2021. The Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin proportion of this population will increase from 91 to 93 percent of the total Canadian Lake Ontario Basin population.

TABLE 23: POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

Sub-Basin 1971 1981 2001 2021 Western 3,656,181 4,294,572 5,821,387 7,567,111 Lake Ontario Trent-Moira 378,883 412,432 482,620 551,578 Total Canadian 4,035,064 4,707,004 6,304,007 8,118,689 Lake Ontario Basin

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

The economic activity projections presented here were produced by Informetrica Limited (2). Details concerning methodology were presented in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

Two sets of estimates were made, Series A and Series B.

71 Series A postulates a world economy in which basic resources are continually in short supply. This is reflected in two ways: a) a rapid growth in world prices of several major commodity groups, mainly associated with metals, mining, and energy, will occur; and

b) the assumption that Canadian suppliers of these goods will respond by providing a rapid growth in the volume of these goods that are exported.

Over the long period under review in this study, the growth of economic output will be a function of the growth in the labour force, increases in productivity per worker, and the ability of policy makers to keep the economy continuously operating at or near "potential", with acceptable price increases. It is assumed that governments will operate the economy at close to the potential, accepting an average annual increase of about 4.1 percent in prices in the long term as measured by the implicit deflator of Gross National Product. This rate is somewhat higher than has been experienced in the post-World War period and reflects the general assumption of a continued world scarcity of basic resources.

Growth of the supply of labour is related to the growth of the population eligible to work and the willingness of that group to participate in the labour force. The past generation has seen a steady decline in the average hours worked per week. It is anticipated that this trend will continue, the average falling from a present 36 hours per week to about 27 in 2020. On the other hand, there has been a clear tendency for people to participate (albeit in the reduced work week) in the past. This is attributable primarily to the increased rate of women's participation. It is expected that this trend will also continue. The participation rate of women under the age of 35 is projected, for example, is projected to rise from a present 45 percent to almost 80 percent in 2020. Overall, it is projected that the participation rate will rise from its current 58 percent to almost 65 percent in 2020.

Consequently, the labour force can be expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 1.5 percent in 1974-2020. This factor together with a growth in output per labourer averaging about 2.7 percent annually, yields an expected average annual growth of 4.2 percent of the Gross National Product (in constant dollar terms). The pattern over time is interesting. The potential for rapid growth is almost certain to deteriorate over time, as the growth of the labour force slows. Thus, in 1974 -1990, the economy can potentially grow at an average annual rate of about 4.8 percent. However, from 1991 through 2020, this potential is restricted by the slow growth of the labour force to about 3.8 percent per year.

To support the rapid growth of government services, it is assumed that taxes will be such that disposable personal income per capita will grow slightly less rapidly than Gross National Product. Nevertheless, this indicator of economic well-being will continue to increase at an average annual rate of 3.0 per cent in 1974-2020. This rate is only slightly less than that which was maintained in the 1960's. In terms of 1961 prices, per capita disposable income will rise from $4,950 in 1974 to $9,410 in 2020.

72 The consumption of public goods and services, as measured by government current expenditures, is projected to provide an increasing share of total expenditures at the expense of private consumption. Under conditions of a slowly growing population, this is a reasonable projection if the economy is to operate at its full potential. Among private consumption items, expenditures for services and durable goods can he expected to grow most rapidly, as has been the case in the past decade.

Demand generated for investment is projected to provide 21-22 percent of total expenditures, of which the private sector is expected to provide an even greater amount. The one significant contrast between the experience of recent years and that expected in future years is in the projection for residential construction, which is projected to grow slowly and to decline as a proportion of total expenditures. This can be attributed to the projected pattern of population growth. The formation of new households, which has grown rapidly in the past decade, can be expected to increase at slower rates in the future. Domestic savings should be sufficient to finance investment throughout most of the period. Business and government can be expected to provide increasing shares of total savings, particularly after the mid-1980's. Until that time, low dependency ratios (i.e., the ratio of the number of persons not in the labour force to those employed) should cause personal savings to rise rapidly.

In Series B by the year 2020, exports (in current dollars) will he about 23 percent less than in the Series A simulation. This is accomplished by assuming that:

a) world prices for uranium, coal, iron ore and automobiles will grow less rapidly after 1985, and b) the volume of exported uranium, coal and iron ore will grow more slowly, reflecting a diversion of investment interest from these sectors of the economy.

In constant dollar terms, exports in 2020 are 10 percent less than in Series A.

Such assumptions would lead to a much slower increase in economic activity and would yield a sustained high rate of unemployment. This will provide the rationale for governments to sufficiently increase transfers to persons, in order to generate domestic demand that will again lead (as in Series A) to an economy operating at "potential".

Given that policy is set to yield growth at "potential" in both simulations, the trace of economic activity in the alternative forecasts will be less broadly distinguished than would be the case if major structural differences in the economy were allowed. The changed external assumptions will have a major depressive effect, for example, on the output of the mining industry. But, because of the compensation for the slack foreign demand, this depressive effect will be partially offset. It is, of course, possible to perceive of alternative simulations that are radically differentiated. However, most of those would entail the articulation of major changes to the institutional and behavioural structure of the economic system. Such an articulation would be a major task.

73 Given the underlying policy assumption, the results of Series B, as measured by such major aggregates as Gross National Product, the Consumer Price Index, and Personal and Disposable Income, are very similar to those of Series A. In Series B, Disposable Personal Income per person in 2020 amounts to $9,710 (in 1961 dollars) as compared to $9,410 in Series A. Most of the major characterizations detailed above for Series A apply to this simulation as well.

The Series A economic activity projections for the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin are presented by major industrial group in Table 24. Total economic output is forecast to increase by a factor of eight, from 13,314.29 (millions of 1961 dollars) in 1972 to 103,831.5 in 2020. The contribution of the land based industries (i.e., agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and mining) to the total output is projected to remain constant at 2 percent. Manufacturing will increase its share of total output from 39 to 48 percent, and other sectors will experience a relative decline.

TABLE 24: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY PROJECTIONS FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN, SERIES A

Real Domestic Product by Major Industrial Group (millions of 1961 dollars)

1972 1980 2000 2020

Agriculture 128.38 176.88 362.04 782.45

Forestry 5.11 8.39 17.47 34.80

Fisheries 0.97 1.05 1.44 2.26

Mining 89.16 137.84 327.66 825.93

Manufacturing 5,235.16 8,657.24 19,763.07 50,126.22

Construction 727.40 1,110.21 2,144.08 4,330.80 Trans. Utilities 7,128.11 11,082.75 23,423.71 47,729.04 Trade & Other

Total Output All Sectors 13,314.29 21,174.36 46,039.47 103,831.50

74 MAJOR LAND USES

AGRICULTURE

The following agricultural land use forecasts are based upon trend projections, upon alternative assumptions of technological advance, and upon the assumption that political or economic factors will force agricultural output to grow in step with population (3).

The transition of traditional, labour-intensive farming to its modern capital intensive form has been an essential part of the creation of the present structure of the economy. Rapid growth in agricultural productivity has resulted in the release of labour and land to other sectors of the economy, while permitting absolute growth in the volume of agricultural commodities produced. These changes have been brought about through intensified use of intermediate inputs, especially machinery, fertilizers and pesticides.

The last few years have been somewhat different from those experienced by the economy over the entire 1950 - 1974 period. In 1973, and again in 1974, real wages and salaries dropped from the previous year's levels. These were the only times that this has happened in recent years. Furthermore, only in the seventies has the agricultural sector improved its position relative to the rest of the economy. If these are not temporary phenomena, future trends in agriculture will see little resemblance to the past. The outflow of land and labour will cease, and perhaps even reverse. In the forecasting exercise, this is the most critical question.

In a pessimistic scenario, it is assumed that these aggregate events will signify a turning point. The area of land required to sustain the consumption standards of a fixed number of people cannot be expected to decline as dramatically as it has in the past. Therefore, through price- induced resources movements, or through government economic directives, the present decline in the land base of agriculture will be halted.

In an alternative optimistic scenario, it is assumed that the events of the recent past are a short run aberration and that agriculture will return to its typical pattern of rising yields and reduced acreages.

In both scenarios it is assumed that either market forces or government intervention will ensure basic food production. Specifically, it is assumed that the physical volume of agricultural production will grow over any period at a constant proportion of the growth rate of Ontario population*. For a detailed discussion of methodology, see Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

______* A key omission in this study is the relationship between Ontario agriculture and the rest of the world. An implicit assumption of the present study is that Ontario will not increase its net reliance on outside agriculture at a faster rate than it has in the past.

75 TABLE 25: AGRICULTURAL LAND USE FORECAST FOR THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

(ha) 1980 2000 2020

Scenario: OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin 351,388 344,496 274,831 393,028 232,792 618,780

Trent-Moira Sub-Basin 447,194 440,116 321,983 432,958 249,686 595,326 Total Canadian 798,582 784,612 596,814 825,986 482,478 1,214,106 Lake Ontario Basin acres = hectares (ha) x 2.471

76 The agricultural land use forecasts are listed by sub-basin groups in Table 25. The alternative forecasts of agricultural land use predict radically different futures for the Canadian Lake Ontario landscape. In the optimistic scenario, which is based upon the assumption that agricultural yields will continue to improve over the forecast period, the total area used by agriculture is predicted to decline. The reasons for the decline vary between the two sub-basins. In the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin, urban expansion is important. In the Trent-Moira Sub-Basin it is the continued decline of farm incomes which induces farmers to abandon production on marginal agricultural land.

In the pessimistic scenario, which is based upon the assumption that an upper limit to yields is being approached, the decline of the area occupied by agriculture will be halted between 1980 and 2000. Subsequently, a significant area will be absorbed by agriculture.

Which scenario will best approximate the future? This depends on the nature of technological advance in agriculture. It depends also on the nature of the decision-making process in agriculture. Will broad trends in agriculture be set by the decisions of isolated producers, responding to the product prices, land prices, and factor prices that are established in the world of monopolies that surrounds them; or will the broad trends of agriculture be established by state intervention, based upon a normative evaluation of the cost of resource use and of the value of alternative categories of consumption? Finally, what is becoming more scarce: farmland; energy; or the ability of the environment to absorb larger doses of biocides and fertilizer? Many forces are acting upon agriculture and the resolution of these forces is not at all clear.

URBAN

The urban land use forecasts in this report are based upon a cross- sectional analysis of the relationship between urban population and urban area (4). They are basically unconstrained, assuming no more effective planning than exists now, and also that the economy will continue to be the major determinant of the urbanization process.

Two different methodologies were used. The first is the constant land consumption rate method, which is based on the assumption that any increments of urban population will occupy as much space per person as the current urban population. The second approach is the allometric method, which assumes that as population increases, urban area also increases, but at a slower rate, reflecting a higher density and more intense use of land in larger cities. Finally, a preferred forecast, called the declining land consumption rate forecast, which combines the best attributes of both methods, is also presented. A detailed description of the methodologies is presented in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

DEFINITIONS

Urban Population, as defined in the 1971 Census of Canada, includes the population living

77 in: (1) incorporated cities, towns, and villages with a population of 1,000 or over; (2) unincorporated places of 1,000 or over, having a population density of at least 1,000 per square mile; and (3) the built-up fringes of (1) and (2) having a minimum population of 1,000 and a density of at least 1,000 per square mile.

Urban Area refers to the land actually used for residential, commercial, industrial, institutional or transportation purposes.

Land Consumption Rate is an intensity measure describing the relationship between urban population and urban area, expressed in hectares per 1,000 persons.

Urban land forecasts for the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin are presented by sub-basin in Table 26. About 89,000 additional ha (219,900 acres) of urban land will be required to accommodate population growth to the year 2020. Most of this urban expansion (94 percent) will take place in the Western Lake Ontario Sub-Basin, which presently contains 40 percent of all the urban land in the Canadian Great Lakes Basin.

Since there is a fixed amount of land in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin, the forecast urban expansion will necessitate the conversion of non- urban land to urban use. Recently, the Lands Directorate, Environment Canada (5), studied the former use of land converted from rural to urban, over the period 1966 - 1971, in 21 Ontario cities. The results of this study for the cities located in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin are presented in Table 27. The figures indicate that during that time period, most of the conversion to urban land was agricultural to urban conversion. It is likely that this pattern will continue in the future, as urbanization continues to encroach upon more increasing quantities of land.

TABLE 26: URBAN LAND FORECASTS FOR THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN (ha)

Sub-Basin 1972 1980 2000 2020 Western Lake Ontario 135,055 147,871 182,280 218,359 Trent-Moira 25,125 25,003 28,632 30,409 Total Canadian 160,184 172,874 210,912 248,768 Lake Ontario Basin acres = hectares (ha) x 2.471

78 TABLE 27: CONVERSION OF OTHER LAND USES TO URBAN USE IN THE CANADIAN LAKE ONTARIO BASIN CITIES, 1966-1971

Percentage of Total Land Converted City Agriculture Forest Other Belleville 88 7 5 Hamilton 87 8 5 Kingston 91 5 4 Oshawa 92 6 2 Peterborough 85 15 0 St. Catharines-Niagara 88 11 1 Toronto 92 7 1 Trenton 85 15 0

SUMMARY

Major land use projections for the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin are summarized in Table 28. Considering the Canadian basin as a whole, farmland will decline at a faster rate than urban expansion, and there will be small increases in forest and other land. In the year 2020, about eight percent of the land will be devoted to urban use, 16 percent will remain in agriculture, 68 percent will be forest, and the remainder in other categories.

TABLE 28: MAJOR LAND USE PROJECTIONS FOR THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN, 1972-2020 (1000 ha)

Land Use 1972 1980 2000 2020 Urban 160.2 172.9 210.9 248.8 Agriculture 919.2 798.6 596.8 482.5 Forest 1,779.6 1,877.9 2,007.3 2,007.8 Other 9.12 100.8 135.2 211.1 Total Land Use 2,950.2 2,950.2 2,950.2 2,950.2

79 SPECIALIZED LAND USE FORECASTS

The five categories of specialized land uses, including waste disposal, erosion zones, intensive livestock operations, high density non-sewered residential areas and recreational lands, bear no simple relationship with the standard economic and demographic variables. The future pattern and extent of specialized land uses in the Canadian Lake Ontario Basin will be more a function of interacting social technological, and legislative factors than of population and economics. The forecasts in this section extend only to the year 1990 because of the great uncertainties involved in specialized land uses.

WASTE DISPOSAL

A major trend in waste disposal is toward fewer, but larger and better managed waste disposal sites. The numerous open dump sites in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin are being closed as waste is being consolidated into large sanitary landfill operations.

The Province of Ontario has adopted a waste management program, called Resource Recovery, which uses every practical means available to recover all valuable resources from the waste produced in the Province, and at the same time to eliminate unnecessary waste (6). The program is designed to provide, in three five-year stages, all the facilities necessary for complete resource recovery to serve at least 90 percent of the population of Ontario, and all but eliminate the need for the landfill of waste.

If the above plan is implemented, and garbage is indeed transformed into a resource, waste disposal may not be a problem in the future.

EROSION

Lakeshore and riverbank erosion are basically natural processes caused by natural phenomena. It is likely that these processes will continue at their present long term rates in the future. However, natural erosion can be accelerated by the clearing of vegetation and construction on shorelands. In order to prevent property damage and possible loss of life, shoreline management programs will probably be implemented in the near future. Such programs would regulate development in erosion prone zones, and thereby prevent further man-caused erosion.

INTENSIVE LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS

Due to economics of scale and the escalating cost of land, the trend toward larger numbers of livestock confined to small areas will likely continue in the near future. However, if the animal waste is properly handled, it need not have a negative impact on water quality.

Beef cattle will constitute an increasing proportion of the total number of cattle, due to a relative decline in the numbers of dairy cattle.

80 HIGH DENSITY. NON-SEWERED RESIDENTIAL AREAS

The urban, high density, non-sewered residential areas will gradually be connected to municipal sewage systems. The rural component of the high density, non-sewered residential areas will likely increase along with increases in the rural, non-farm population.

Advances in private waste disposal system technology may contribute to improved efficiency, resulting in less pollution of ground and surface water.

RECREATIONAL LANDS

If the supply of recreational lands keeps up with the demand for recreation, it will likely increase in the future.

Not only will there be more people wanting recreation, but the possibility of shorter work weeks will give each person more time for recreational pursuits.

MATERIALS USAGE FORECASTS

PESTICIDES

There are formidable obstacles to making statements about the nature and level of pesticide use in the future. New products are continually being introduced to the market. Furthermore, the use of old products can decline, resulting in the withdrawal of some of these products from the market. In addition, legislation can radically alter the pest control choices available for use.

The projections presented are based on the following restrictive assumptions: 1) that there will be no radical changes in pest control practices or types of chemicals used; 2) that the intensity of chemical use will remain constant; and 3) that the proportion of each class of farmland subjected to pesticide use will remain constant. The only remaining variable is the area of farmland. Details of the methodology used in those forecasts are discussed in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

Agricultural pesticide forecasts for the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin are presented in Table 29 under both the pessimistic and optimistic yield scenarios (7). In the lower (optimistic forecast), the use of each type of pesticide is predicted to decline. By contrast, substantial increases in pesticide use are predicted in the upper (pessimistic) forecast.

It should be noted that these forecasts are based on very restrictive assumptions and should not be construed as balanced projections that incorporate estimates of the magnitude of all factors that will affect future pesticide use.

81 TABLE 29: FORECAST OF ANNUAL AGRICULTURAL PESTICIDE USE IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN

(t/a)

1971 1980 2000 2020 HERBICIDE - LOWER FORECAST 311 274 218 175 UPPER FORECAST - 280 317 477 FUNGICIDE - LOWER FORECAST 234 223 223 226 UPPER FORECAST - 228 324 589 INSECTICIDE - LOWER FORECAST 241 228 223 224 UPPER FORECAST - 233 325 585 dash (-) indicates data not available pounds (lb) = tonnes (t) x 2200

FERTILIZERS

The volume of fertilizer that will be used by agriculture in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin in the future will depend, in a complex way, upon the area used by agriculture, prices of farm products, prices of fertilizers, environmental constraints, and technical limits. Because of the uncertainty of long-run projections, most of these factors have been excluded from the agricultural forecasting exercise. However, the environmental implications of continued rapid increase in the use of fertilizers make it important to consider the magnitude of their use in the future. A description of the methodology appears in Appendix A of Volume I in this report series.

The projected nutrient content of fertilizers used in Canadian Lake Ontario Basin agriculture is presented in Table 30 (7). The forecasts are very sensitive to the assumptions upon which they are based. They indicate that there will be a continued rapid increase in the use of each fertilizer nutrient between now and the year 2000. Subsequently, fertilizer usage is predicted to decline.

82 TABLE 30: FORECAST WEIGHT OF NUTRIENTS IN COMMERCIAL FERTILIZER USED BY AGRICULTURE IN THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN (t/a) 1971 1980 2000 2020

NITROGEN 15,266 17,374 25,127 23,604

PHOSPHORUS (P2O5) 14,861 16,905 24,530 23,002

POTASSIUM (K2O) 18,604 21,122 30,471 28,451

TOTAL NUTRIENTS 48,731 55,401 80,128 75,057 pounds (lb) = tonnes (t) x 2200

83 The factors behind this projection include the following:

1) an increasing proportion of the area under crops will be fertilized;

2) the total area under crops will continue to decline; and

3) there will be a shift to crops which require more intensive fertilization.

The results would be different if the forecast of agricultural land use consistent with future needs and a pessimistic outlook for yield improvement had been used. In that scenario, the area under crops would begin to increase after 1980.Furthermore, agriculture would be extended to marginal lands which would require more intensive doses of fertilizers than do the 'average acres' upon which the 'recommended application rates' are based.

ROAD SALT

The large volume of salt applied to roads is based upon the dominance of private motor vehicles. If private transportation is de-emphasized in the future, the need to keep roads free of snow and ice will be reduced. At the same time, however, emergency vehicles, i.e., fire engines, police cars, ambulances), buses and all forms of public surface transport will still be impeded by winter road conditions. Therefore, the extinction of the private vehicle would not mark the end of the environment transportation conflict over deicing agents.

The use of road sale in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin is expected to increase at a steady rate, from 741,620 t (1.6 billion lb) in 1972 to 833,000 t (1.8 billion lb) in 1980, 1,017,200 t (2.2 billion lb) in 2000, and 1,207,800 t (2.6 billion lb) in 2020.

The projections presented in this section are extremely limited. They are not based upon a systematic scenario of social factors or transportation patterns in the future. Ultimately, it is these factors which will constrain or permit expansion in the use of road salts.

SUMMARY

The quantity of material applied to the land in the Canadian portion of the Lake Ontario Basin to increase its productivity or to remove obstacles to rapid transportation will continue to grow. In this report, quantitative forecasts of the use of the most important of these materials have been presented, with all the implicit assumptions stated.

The uncertainties of the future have been emphasized. There is little that can be said about the preference system of society in the future. In an era characterized by rapid technological change, predictions will inevitably be clouded by the inability to deal with the development of radically new substitutes.

84 REFERENCES

1. Ontario Ministry of Treasury, Economics, and Intergovernmental Affairs (TEIGA). Ontario's Changing, Population Volume II, Directions and Impact of Future Change 1971-2001, Regional Planning Branch, March 1976.

2. Sonnen, C. A. and Jacobson, P. M. Estimates of Economic Activity in Regions of the Canadian Great Lakes Basin for the Period 1972 - 2020, Series A., Volumes I and II and Series B, prepared by Informetrica Ltd. for Social Sciences Division, Inland Waters Directorate, Ontario Region, Environment Canada, 1975.

3. Deutscher, P. The Path of Ontario Agriculture: Land Use Projections to 2020, Social Sciences Division, Inland Water Directorate, Ontario Region, Environment Canada 1976.

4. Sudar, A. Urban Land Use Forecasts, Social Sciences Division, Inland Waters Directorate, Ontario Region, Environment Canada, 1976.

5. Gierman, D. Rural to Urban Land Conversion, Resources Mapping Division, Land Evaluation and Mapping Branch, Lands Directorate, Environment Canada, 1975.

6. Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Facts About Resource Recovery, April 1976.

7. Deutscher, P. The Usage of Biocides, Fertilizers, and Road Salts in The Great Lakes Basin: Projections to 2020, Social Sciences Division, Inland Waters Directorate, Ontario Region, Environment Canada, 1976.