A Delphi Study of the Predicted Future of Newspapers
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
SURVIVING IN AN ELECTRONIC WORLD: A DELPHI STUDY OF THE PREDICTED FUTURE OF NEWSPAPERS By SHERRI DENISE WARD MASSEY Bachelor of Arts University of Arkansas Fayetteville, Arkansas 1986 Master of Arts University of Oklahoma Norman, Oklahoma 1989 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate College of the Oklahoma State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF EDUCATION May, 1993 COPYRIGHT by Sherri Denise Ward Massey May, 1993 OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY SURVIVING IN AN ELECTRONIC WORLD: A DELPID STUDY OF THE PREDICTED FUTURE OF NEWSPAPERS Thesis Approved: :::::::::> Dean of the Graduate College 11 PREFACE This study offers views about the direction of the newspaper industry and includes experts' predictions of that future. Specifically, this study offers views of what problems newspapers will face, some suggested solutions to those problems and some opinions about the physical look and content of future newspapers. I would like to thank Dr. Charles Fleming, my adviser and dissertation chairman, for his wisdom, guidance and patience throughout this study. I also would like to thank Dr. Constance Lawry, Dr. Edward Welch and Dr. David Webster, my committee members, for their contributions to this study and to my academic experiences at Oklahoma State University. Thanks also go to those who participated in the pilot studies - Berry Tramel, Cindy Brown, Brian Sherman, Chris Morrison, Mitch Bettis and Tracy Behre. Their intelligent feedback helped enormously as I outlined the study. Special thanks to my parents, Ron and Carlene Ward, who gave me the opportunity to further my academic career and who have always provided financial and emotional support when needed. Thanks to Vicki Plowman for all the much-needed and perfectly timed phone calls, cards and letters. Thank you to my husband, Jeff, for encouraging me, for taking me on vacations and for making me laugh. 111 TABLE OF CONTENTS · Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 Planning Ahead ............................................................................. 1 Background ................................................................................... 3 Statement of the Problem .............................................................. 9 Purpose of the Study ................................................................... 10 Research Questions ..................................................................... 10 Methodology ............................................................................... 11 Significance of the Research ....................................................... 11 Scope and Limitations ................................................................. 12 Outline of the Study .................................................................... 12 II. HOPE FOR THE FUTURE ................................................................... 13 Overview .................................................................................... 13 Background of the Problem ....................................................... 13 Need for the Study ..................................................................... 16 Review of the Literature ............................................................ 17 Summary .................................................................................... 40 III. METHODOLOGY ... ·.............................................................................. 41 Overview .................................................................................... 41 Research Methodology .............................................................. 41 Selection of Subjects .................................................................. 42 Research Instrument .................................................................. 46 Pilot Studies ............................................................................... 47 Research Design ....................................... :................................. 48 Data Collection Plan .................................................................. 50 Data Processing and Analysis .................................................... 50 Summary .................................................................................... 51 IV. ANALYSIS OF DATA .......................................................................... 52 General ....................................................................................... 52 Round I ...................................................................................... 52 Round II ..................................................................................... 71 Round III .................................................................................... 80 IV Chapter Page V. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: .............................................................. 102 General. ..................., ................................................................. 102 Summary and Conclusions ...................................................... 104 Recommendations for Implementation .................................... 112 Recommendations for Further Research .................................. 117 Conclusion .............. ,. ................................................................. 118 . REFERENCES ..................................... ;, ..... .' ......................................................... 120 APPENDIXES ...................................................................................................... 129 APPENDIX A-THE PANELISTS: BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION ....................... 130 APPENDIX B - INTRODUCTORY LEITER.................................... 138 APPENDIX C - ROUND I COVER LEfTER .................................... 139 APPENDIX D - ROUND I FOLLOW-UP LETTER .......................... 140 APPENDIX E-ROUND I SURVEY INSTRUMENT ....................... 141 APPENDIX F - ROUND II COVER LETTER ................................... 142 APPENDIX G - ROUND II FOLLOW-UP LETTER. ........................ 143 APPENDIX H - ROUND II SURVEY INSTRUMENT ..................... 144 APPENDIX I - ROUND III COVER LEITER. .................................. 159 APPENDIX J -ROUND III FOLLOW-UP LETTER. ........................ 160 APPENDIX K- ROUND III SURVEY INSTRUMENT .................... 161 APPENDIX L - ROUND I PIWT STUDY ........................................ 162 APPENDIX M - ROUND I VERBATIM RESPONSES .................... 165 APPENDIX N - ROUND II RESPONSES ..................... :.................. 184 APPENDIX O - ROUND III VERBATIM RESPONSES .................. 207 APPENDIX P - RESEARCH APPROVAL ........................................ 229 V LIST OF TABLES Table Page I. Ratings of likelihood of occurrence of predicted problems for the newspaper industry ....................................................................... 72 II. Ratings of likelihood of occurrence of predicted physical changes in future newspapers .................................................................. 7 5 III. Ratings of likelihood of occurrence of predicted content changes in future newspapers ............................................................................... 77 IV. Top five rankings of predicted problems (by total points and by scales) ......................................................................................... 81 VI CHAPfERI INTRODUCTION Planning Ahead "Paperless newspaper" sounds like an oxymoron, but that term may be a key one in the newspaper industry's future. The idea of a pocket-sized electronic newspaper - one that someone might pull out every hour or so to check on stock reports or headlines - does not seem as outrageous of an idea as it did 15 or 20 years ago (Booker, 1992; Fidler, 1992; Fisher, 1992). After all, computers are getting smaller and more powerful, and such electronics are proven gimmicks: We already have tiny televisions and compact disc players. But the issue of what newspapers of the future will look like and what type of information they will provide has less to do with the available technology and more to do with economics, competition and the needs of the readers. Those involved with the newspaper industry - either as professionals or educators - have to be concerned about suggestions for any radical changes in the physical appearance of a product so familiar to readers. This has to do with more than just whether readers will "accept" a computerized product. Those under the age of 35 grew up with computers, and many of those older have adopted them into workplaces and homes. The success of the home computer has proven the acceptance of the electronic medium. Another important issue to consider is the extent to which advertisers can find a niche in electronic newspapers. Given the capability to zip through their 1 2 daily paper, will readers bother to pay any attention to the ads? Will interactive ads, in which readers have direct and immediate access to the advertisers, make a difference? Many of those involved in the industry would say they expect to see an electronic newspaper - perhaps as a hand-held device or a computer modem or as some form of audiotex (via telephone) widely used within 10 years. But few, at least now, say they expect the electronic version to replace the current version anytime soon. So, at the Associated Press Managing Editors or the Newspaper Association of America meetings, when. panelists discuss the future