Update on Conflict and Diplomacy Reviewed work(s): Source: Journal of Palestine Studies, Vol. 41, No. 2 (Winter 2012), pp. 153-189 Published by: University of California Press on behalf of the Institute for Palestine Studies Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/jps.2012.XLI.2.153 . Accessed: 02/05/2012 15:26

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http://www.jstor.org Update on Conflict and Diplomacy

16 August 2011–15 November 2011

Compiled by Michele K. Esposito

The Quarterly Update is a summary of bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and the future of the peace process. More than 100 print, wire, television, and online sources providing U.S., Israeli, Arab, and international independent and government coverage of unfolding events are surveyed to compile the Quarterly Update. The most relevant sources are cited in JPS’s Chronology section, which tracks events day by day, and which, as of this issue, can be found on the IPS website (http://www.palestine-studies.org).

Highlights of the Quarter: Abbas petitions the UN Security Council to recognize Palestine as a full member state, Obama gives his strongest support yet to Israel at the UN General Assembly, the Quartet and France offer plans to restart peace talks, Israel reaches prisoner swap deals with Hamas and Egypt, an attack on Elat precipitates crises with Egypt and Gaza, the UN’s Palmer Report on the Gaza Flotilla incident is released, rebels kill Qaddafi and declare Libya liberated, violence in Syria escalates.

THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI On the ground, Israel maintained its CONFLICT tight siege on Gaza, severely restricting its economy and undermining quality of This quarter, attention with regard life. The IDF enforced the 300-m no-go to the Palestinian-Israeli track again fo- zone inside the full length of the Gaza cused mainly on the Palestinians’ bid border and limited Palestinian fishing for statehood, the first half on whether in Gaza to 500–1,000 m off Bayt Lahiya they would go through with plans to and Rafah and 3 naut. mi. elsewhere— request such recognition at the UN Gen- restrictions that placed 17% of Gaza’s to- eral Assembly (UNGA) session in 9/2011 tal landmass, including vast agricultural (resolved on 9/23 when they filed the areas, off limits to Palestinians. In the petition), much of the second half on West Bank, Israeli restrictions and IDF the waiting period as the UN Security military operations remained relatively Council (UNSC) considered the appli- low. As of 8/15, at least 7,828 Palestin- cation and ultimately concluded (11/8) ians (including 51 Israeli Arabs and 19 that it could not reach a consensus unidentified Arab cross-border infiltra- opinion. Though the UN application tors), 1,111 Israelis (including 354 IDF was in effect blocked unless the Pales- soldiers and security personnel, 226 set- tinians initiated further action, Palestin- tlers, and 531 civilians), and 66 foreign ian pres. Mahmud Abbas’s popularity nationals (including 2 British suicide spiked. At least in part to undercut Ab- bombers) had been killed since the start bas, Israel and Hamas overcame their of the al-Aqsa intifada on 9/28/00. outstanding differences on a prisoner swap, which freed captured Israel De- UN Statehood Bid fense Forces (IDF) Cpl. Gilad Shalit (on As the quarter opened, the UNGA 10/18) in exchange for more than 1,000 session was 5 weeks away, with for- Palestinians jailed in Israel, the initial mal events to begin on 9/21 and Abbas group being released this quarter. No scheduled to speak on 9/23. Although significant progress was made on re- the Palestinian leadership (PLO, Pales- viving Israel-Palestinian peace talks or tinian Authority [PA], and Fatah) was implementing the 5/2011 Fatah-Hamas set on requesting UN validation of Pal- reconciliation accord. estinian statehood, how far to press

Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XLI, No. 2 (Winter 2012), pp. 153–189, ISSN: 0377-919X; electronic ISSN: 1533-8614. © 2012 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Rights and Permissions website, at http://www.ucpressjournals.com/reprintInfo.asp. DOI: jps.2012.XLI.2.153.

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the initiative remained undecided. Ab- security teams to defend the settlements bas favored (e.g., 8/18) seeking full, un- against an onslaught of Palestinian qualified member-state status, which protesters (see “Settlers and Settle- required UNSC approval, despite the ments” below), assuming that Palestin- U.S. vow to veto any UNSC measure. ians would be rallied by their leaders Consequently, a growing number of Pal- to march on the settlements timed with estinian officials preferred to seek an the UNGA session. upgrade of Palestine’s UN status from Some Israeli officials encouraged Ne- “permanent observer” to “observer tanyahu to take an even more aggres- state.” This would put Palestine on the sive stand against the statehood bid. same footing as the Vatican, with all the For example, MK Danny Danon (Likud) rights of a state at the UN (including the submitted (8/17) a bill in the Knesset that right to petition the International Crimi- would start the process of annexing the nal Court [ICC]) but without the abil- West Bank and launched a companion ity to vote. Such an upgrade would not Internet campaign on Facebook and Is- require UNSC approval and could be raeli social media sites urging Netanyahu achieved by tabling a resolution in the to annex the territory. Another anony- UNGA, where the Palestinians were ex- mous Israeli official said (9/15) that the pected easily to secure the simple ma- government was debating a “basket of jority needed to pass such a measure. tools” to respond to the statehood bid, As the debate unfolded, Abbas coor- including new restrictions on Palestin- dinated closely with the Arab League to ian travel, suspension of the transfer of ensure broad Arab support for his UN VAT taxes collected by Israel on the PA’s plans. This included meeting with Arab behalf, and other “far-reaching” steps. League FMs and Arab League Secy.- These moves came despite Abbas’s Gen. Nabil Elaraby in Doha on 8/23. repeated (see Quarterly Update in JPS (On the sidelines of that meeting, Abbas 161) pledges that Palestinians would met with U.S. Asst. Secy. of State Jeremy hold only nonviolent demonstrations Feltman; no details were released.) in support of the UN bid, as well as in- Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and creased coordination between the IDF his government, strongly opposed to and PA security forces to maintain the the statehood bid, continued actively to West Bank calm. Indeed, high-ranking lobby countries to oppose any UN initia- Israeli defense officials (including DM tive (see Quarterly Update in JPS 161 for Ehud Barak) recommended (ca. 8/22) background); according to Israeli Dep. that Netanyahu make a series of major FM Danny Ayalon (8/17): “We are try- goodwill gestures to the PA to bolster ing to recruit the most important coun- Abbas and convince him to postpone tries so that they do not vote according the UN bid. These included: removing to their conscience, but for the security more roadblocks in the West Bank, re- and stability in the Middle East.” The leasing Fatah prisoners, increasing the Israeli FMin. instructed (8/20) Israeli number of Palestinian workers allowed ambassadors and representatives abroad into Israel, and allowing some Israelis to warn their hosts that the Palestinians to enter Palestinian-controlled area A would attempt to leverage member-state for shopping and tourism. The rationale or observer-state status to censure Israel was that such gestures would immedi- in various international forums (such ately improve the West Bank economy, as the ICC) and to expand Palestinian while also giving Palestinians a sense sovereignty in the West Bank—what it of what they could lose if the initiative termed unilateral acts of “diplomatic went forward. Netanyahu ignored the warfare” that would “lead to confronta- suggestions. tion and put [Israel’s] economic, security and humanitarian cooperation at risk.” The U.S. Presses for a Quartet Deal in Netanyahu and his security cabinet (e.g., Lieu of a UN Bid 8/17) also played up and prepared for Meanwhile, the U.S. actively contin- the possibility of a major security dete- ued to discourage the statehood bid. rioration in the territories surrounding According to 2 anonymous Obama ad- the UNGA session. At the same time, ministration sources (New York Times the IDF worked with Jewish settlement [NYT] 9/4), the White House in late

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8/2011 “launched a last-ditch diplomatic Shimon Peres on 3 separate occasions campaign” to convince the Palestinians in recent months (in Amman, London, to drop the plan. The campaign in- and Rome) to discuss reviving talks. He volved 3 simultaneous efforts: (1) mak- also revealed that he met secretly on ing clear to the Palestinians that the 8/27 with Israeli DM Ehud Barak, who U.S. would veto a UNSC initiative; (2) asked him to drop the statehood bid (al- sending formal diplomatic messages most certainly emphasizing the package to about 100 countries (as of 9/8) urg- of Israeli goodwill gestures proposed by ing them to oppose Palestinian state- the defense establishment noted above). hood, hoping to sway any countries on Finally, Abbas reiterated that as long as the fence so as to at least “narrow the he was president, the PA would main- majority the Palestinians are expected tain close security cooperation with to have in the General Assembly”; and Israel. (3) drafting a Quartet proposal for re- Ross and Hale arrived in the region newing talks. This last was not so much on 9/6. (Blair arrived around the same because the U.S. believed that serious time, but details of his meeting sched- talks were currently possible, but be- ule were not publicized.) While they cause it would give the U.S. leverage to were meeting with Israeli officials (no argue that an alternative to the state- details released), U.S. Secy. of State Hill- hood bid still existed through nego- ary Clinton phoned (9/6) Abbas to urge tiations, and that until all negotiating him to “work hard with us to avoid a prospects were exhausted unilateral negative scenario in New York.” When Palestinian steps should be opposed. Ross and Hale met with Palestinian offi- The Quartet statement envisioned by cials on 9/7, they likewise pressed them the U.S. would outline a series of meet- (according to Palestinian officials on ings and other steps leading merely to 9/8) to accept a Quartet statement and a resumption of talks, with no sugges- threatened to suspend all U.S. aid if the tions for how to proceed to final status. UN bid proceeded. No progress was re- Gaining EU support for such a Quartet ported; Ross and Hale returned to the proposal was deemed especially impor- U.S. on 9/8 with anonymous U.S. offi- tant since the individual EU states were cials saying (Washington Post [WP] 9/9) divided on how to respond to the state- that the administration was “at a loss” hood bid. (To this end, 58 House Demo- as to how a U.S. veto could be avoided. crats later sent, on 9/15, a letter to 40 Abbas stated (9/8) that “to be frank . . . , European heads of state urging them to they came too late,” noting that after oppose the UN bid.) “wasting time” since the beginning of By early 9/2011, Obama was pre- 2011, at the last minute they had no paring to send his chief Middle East concrete proposal to offer. Palestinian adviser Dennis Ross and acting U.S. officials added (9/8) that it would be po- special envoy to the Middle East peace litical suicide for Abbas to back down at process David Hale to the region to this stage. press the sides to accept a Quartet state- On 9/12, Abbas met with Arab ment in lieu of a Palestinian statehood League FMs in Cairo to brief them on bid. Quartet special envoy Tony Blair the Ross-Hale visit. The FMs told Abbas headed to the region at the same time that they now strongly preferred that to buttress their effort. In advance of the Palestinians ask for observer-state their arrival, Abbas held (9/5) a high- status via the UNGA to avoid a serious profile meeting with a group of 20 left- confrontation with the U.S., but that leaning Israeli intellectuals to stress that they would support whatever tack he the Palestinians definitely wanted first took at the UN, including going for full and foremost to resume negotiations member-state status. Palestinian chief (“no matter what happens at the [UN], negotiator Saeb Erakat said (9/13) that we have to return to negotiations”) but the Palestinians were waiting to hear that even in the event of a last-minute the new proposals being drafted by EU deal to resume talks, the UN bid would foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton proceed. He also confirmed rumors (who had just arrived in Cairo) together (see Quarterly Update in JPS 161) that with Quartet special envoy Blair (still in he had met secretly with Israeli pres. the region) before deciding. Meanwhile,

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U.S. Amb. to the UN Susan Rice warned via the UNGA. This was because con- (9/12) that any country supporting the sideration of an application to the UNSC Palestinians at the UN should have the could be drawn out: various letters “responsibility to own the consequences would have to be submitted, a commit- of their vote,” reinforcing Arab FMs’ tee would have to be formed to study fears that they could pay a price in U.S. the request, and the U.S. could demand aid if they supported the UN bid. repeated extensions to “study the situ- Ross and Hale returned to the region ation further.” Meanwhile, the EU and 9/14–15 to meet again with Netanyahu U.S. continued efforts to draft a Quartet and Abbas. This time, they proposed statement that could preempt the state- that the Palestinians drop their UN bid hood bid and bring the parties back to in exchange for being granted “some at- negotiations. tributes of a state” (e.g., allowing them get funding directly from the World New Offers as the UNGA Session Bank, which aids only states) or re- Convenes starting talks based on 1967 lines but New last-minute initiatives to avert without a settlement freeze (already re- a Palestinian appeal to the UN were peatedly rejected by the Palestinians made as diplomats gathered in New as insufficient). Separately, Ashton and York. On 9/19, Obama launched a 3-day Blair suggested that the Palestinians diplomatic push at the UN intended drop their bid for statehood in exchange to “express our support for a negoti- for a Quartet statement outlining steps ated, 2-state solution,” according to toward resuming talks and a UNGA res. his spokesperson. That same day, Ne- endorsing the idea of Palestinian state- tanyahu publicly announced (9/19) his hood without granting them the status last-minute decision to lead the Israeli of a state. Abbas rejected these as too delegation to the UNGA session him- little too late. Reportedly deeply in- self. He had originally planned to send sulted by the proposals, he made his Israeli pres. Shimon Peres in his place, final decision (announced 9/16) to seek stating that he did not want to give the full member-state status at the UN. Palestinian statehood issue more atten- In meetings with Israeli officials dur- tion than it deserved. His final decision ing this time, Ross, Hale, Ashton, Blair, (on 9/15) was to ensure, he said, that and other U.S. and European officials “Israel receives a fair hearing.” strongly urged Netanyahu not to take At the same time, Netanyahu called any steps to punish Abbas that would (9/19) on Abbas to restart direct negoti- destabilize the PA, such as cutting off ations with him in New York that would security cooperation. Israeli DM Barak be continued in Jerusalem and Ramallah and Intelligence M Dan Meridor also upon their return, just as they had done urged against imposing economic sanc- a year before (see Quarterly Update in tions that could undermine the PA. JPS 158). He gave no details on the basis Meanwhile, an Israeli diplomatic source for relaunching talks. Senior Palestinian noted (Ha’Aretz 9/19) that Netanyahu official Hussam Zumlut reiterated (9/19) was under heavy pressure from hard- that the Palestinian leadership was line members of his coalition (particu- ready to consider any “serious and cred- larly FM Avigdor Lieberman, Finance ible” proposal to resume talks, mean- M Yuval Steinitz, and Dep. PM Moshe ing it must include a settlement freeze Ya’alon) to respond forcefully to the PA, and acceptance of the 1967 lines as the but that he had agreed to wait “until the terms of reference. Netanyahu did not significance of the Palestinian move be- clarify his position or respond. comes clearer to commit to any course Obama turned up the pressure on of action.” the Palestinians in his address to the After Abbas’s 9/16 announcement, Is- UNGA opening plenary on 9/21 (see raeli and U.S. officials began for the first Doc. D2), denouncing the Palestinian time to suggest quietly (see NYT 9/18) statehood bid in what some analysts that a Palestinian bid for full member- (e.g., WP 9/22) termed “his clearest state status via the UNSC might actually statement of support and sympathy for be easier to contain and less politically Israel” ever and “a retreat from his early damaging than a bid for observer status ambitions to help broker an enduring

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peace.” In it, he adopted Israel’s nar- the bid, observers said (NYT, WP 9/24) rative of an embattled nation in a hos- the move was “designed to delay a con- tile region, praised the Jewish people tentious vote on the Palestinian request for having “forged a successful state in as long as possible” on the grounds that their historic homeland,” and went so as long as peace talks were “underway far as stating that it was Israel that de- and making progress,” the UNSC would served recognition and normalization likely put off a vote on the Palestinian from its neighbors, without mention- application to give the sides a chance ing settlements or occupation. Later that to reach a negotiated agreement. Quar- day, Obama met separately with Netan- tet reps. worked late into the evening yahu (a preplanned meeting) and Abbas but failed to agree on a text, reconven- (agreed by the U.S. at the last minute); ing in the morning on 9/23 to try again. no details were released. In a joint The EU and U.S. reportedly (NYT 9/23) press conference afterward intended to threatened at one point to give up on a emphasize the special U.S.-Israeli alli- Quartet statement and issue their own ance, Netanyahu praised Obama’s stand joint statement—which some diplomats as a “badge of honor.” (Obama did not feared would effectively mark the end hold a press conference with Abbas.) of the Quartet. That same evening, Secy. of State Clin- Later on 9/23, Abbas, after officially ton held separate meetings with Abbas submitting the papers formally request- and Netanyahu. Abbas repeated that ing full UN membership (see Doc. B1), the statehood bid was not meant to pre- gave a long speech to the UNGA con- clude negotiations and that the Pales- trasting the PLO’s historic steps for tinians hoped to resume negotiations peace with Israel’s settlement policy as soon as possible, with a settlement (see Doc. B2). Abbas’s letter of appli- freeze and agreement on 1967 lines as cation emphasized that it was being the basis of talks. Details of the meeting made “consistent with the rights of Pal- with Netanyahu were not released. estinian refugees” and “with the status Meanwhile, French pres. Nicho- of the Palestinian Liberation Organiza- las Sarkozy publicly offered (9/21) a tion (PLO) as the sole legitimate rep- bridging proposal to avert a statehood resentative of the Palestinian people.” bid: immediate resumption of Israeli- The emphasis was in response to grave Palestinian talks, to be shepherded concerns among Palestinian refugees jointly by the 5 permanent UNSC mem- and activists in the diaspora alarmed bers, the EU, Egypt, and Jordan (as op- by an independently commissioned le- posed to the U.S.-dominated Quartet) gal opinion issued (ca. 8/24) by Oxford aimed at concluding a comprehensive University international law professor final status deal within a year. In ex- Guy Goodwin-Gill that warned that change for accepting the format and UN endorsement of Palestinian state- timeline, the Palestinians would drop hood could compromise the PLO’s sta- their bid for full membership and set- tus as sole legitimate representative of tle for observer-state status and pledge the Palestinian people (recognized by not to “undertake actions incompatible the UN in 1975) to the PA, meaning with the continuation of negotiations” that Palestinians in the diaspora might (i.e., using the new status to seek action be left behind and refugee rights com- against Israel in the ICC). Sarkozy met promised. The sentence concerning the privately with Abbas on 9/20, before an- refugees’ rights and the PLO’s status nouncing his proposal, but none of the as sole representatives was added even parties publicly responded. though other legal experts (notably re- On 9/22, with Abbas prepared to nowned Ohio State law professor John submit the Palestinian petition to the Quigley ca. 8/30) clarified (1) that the UN on 9/23 and both he and Netanyahu form of government (i.e., the role of set to address the session that same day, the PLO and its subordinate entity, the the U.S. convened its Quartet partners PA) is an internal constitutional issue for intensive meetings to finalize a state- that does not affect status as a state; ment on resumption of negotiations. and (2) that refugee rights are inalien- While at this stage there was little if any able and cannot be ceded accidentally hope of preventing Abbas from making or otherwise.

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Many representatives left the hall members (Brazil, China, India, Lebanon, immediately after Abbas’s speech, de- Russia, and South Africa) had said they clining to stay to hear Netanyahu, who would vote in favor; the U.S. would vote spoke next, in a silent show of solidar- against; and Britain, France, Germany, ity with the Palestinians. The bulk of Portugal, and Columbia intended to ab- Netanyahu’s speech (see Doc. C) fo- stain. That left Bosnia, Gabon, and Ni- cused on the threat from Iran, upbraid- geria on the fence and the Palestinians ing the UN and its various agencies for required to secure the votes of all 3 to having repeatedly legitimized “terror- move the application forward. Though ists and their Iranian patrons” and “con- chances were good that the initiative demned their victims” (i.e., Israel). He would die without need of a veto, anon- did, however, reiterate his call for Abbas ymous U.S. officials expressed concern to resume negotiation immediately in that the EU states might opt to “use a New York, again without giving details U.S. veto as cover,” voting for the mea- on the basis or goal of talks. sure to boost their interests in the Arab/ Within 3 hours after Abbas’s speech, Muslim world while relying on the U.S. the Quartet issued (9/23) a vague state- to “do the responsible thing” by block- ment calling on Israel and the Palestin- ing the initiative. Indeed, on 9/27 Pal- ians to return to talks within a month, estinian envoy to the U.S. Maen Areikat with the objective of reaching a final said the Palestinians’ focus was on con- agreement within a year (see Doc. A2). vincing the 4 EU states to support the While the statement expressed “strong bid to give it some mainstream Western support for the vision of Israeli-Pales- backing. tinian peace outlined by . . . Obama” After several rounds of debate, rotat- and called on both sides to “refrain from ing UNSC member Bosnia announced provocative actions,” the U.S. refused to (10/31) its decision to abstain, making include explicit mention of 1967 borders it impossible for the Palestinians to se- or halting settlement construction. And cure the necessary 9 votes. On 11/8, although an anonymous senior U.S. of- the UNSC comm. finalized its report, ficial said the Quartet’s idea was that a 4-page document (see Doc. A4) stat- after an initial preparatory meeting the ing that members were unable to reach sides would be able “to come forward consensus and therefore unable to make with comprehensive proposals within a a unanimous recommendation. By that 3-month period on territory and secu- time, the Palestinian application had rity,” no further benchmarks on the path 8 possible votes: Brazil, China, India, to final status were set out. Quartet spe- Lebanon, Russia, and South Africa defi- cial envoy Tony Blair heralded (9/23) the nitely; Nigeria and Gabon probably. The statement as a “breakthrough,” though U.S. definitely and Germany probably he acknowledged that neither Israel nor would vote against; Bosnia, Britain, Co- the Palestinians had accepted it. lumbia, France, and Portugal would ab- stain. Many of the states that would not The Fate of the Palestinian Statehood vote in favor questioned whether the Request Palestinians currently met the require- On 9/24, the parties left New York ments for statehood, especially given and settled in to an uncertain waiting Hamas’s control of Gaza and the uncer- period. UN Secy.-Gen. Ban Ki-Moon im- tainty as to whether it would accept the mediately sent (9/23) the Palestinian terms of membership (including peace- application to the UNSC’s rotating head, ful settlement of disputes). For an ac- Lebanese amb. Nawaf Salam, who dis- tual vote to be taken, at least 1 UNSC tributed it to UNSC members on 9/26, member would be required to formally which in turn sent (9/28) it to the UN- ask for a vote, and none did, leaving the SC’s standing Committee on the Admis- application effectively dead. The out- sion of New Members (1 rep. from each come also meant that the Palestinians UNSC member state) for review. The could not bypass the UNSC and request review process (which began on 9/30) the UNGA to consider the application was expected to take weeks or months. under Uniting for Peace (UNGA Res. Nine UNSC votes were needed to 377; see Quarterly Update in JPS 161 for approve the application. Six UNSC background).

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The UNSC formally accepted the re- UNGA session did not materialize. In- port on 11/11. The same day, France deed, the IDF praised (9/28) the PA urged the Palestinians to submit a new security forces for their close coordina- request to the UNGA to upgrade its sta- tion to prevent violence. In total, only 3 tus to the lesser observer-state status, but large rallies organized by Fatah and the by the end of the quarter the Palestin- PA in support of the UN initiative were ians had not decided whether to do so. held in Ramallah (9/21, 9/23, 9/25). Small rallies took place in population The 9/23 Quartet Initiative Goes centers around the West Bank from 9/8 Nowhere to 9/25, with virtually no violence re- Meanwhile, as the UNSC commit- ported. No rallies were held in Gaza or tee considering Palestine’s bid debated, Jerusalem. (See also “Nonviolent Pro- there was no serious movement to pur- tests in the Territories” below.) sue the 9/23 Quartet initiative to re- In consequence, Israeli officials did vive talks. Returning to the region from not immediately implement threats the UNGA session, Palestinian (9/24, made in the run-up to the UNGA ses- 9/25) and Israeli officials (9/25) stated sion to cut off funds to the PA or an- only that they were studying the Quar- nex West Bank territory as they had tet offer. After meeting with the PLO threatened, opting for a wait-and-see Exec. Comm. in Ramallah, Abbas said approach. The leaders of Israel’s 4 rul- (9/29) that Palestinian leadership felt ing coalition parties (Likud’s Ze’evi El- the proposal had “encouraging ele- kin, Shas’s Avraham Michaela, Habayt ments,” but could be viable only if Israel HaYehudi’s Uri Orbach, and National “clearly committed” to the principle of Union’s Yaakov Katz) did send (9/27) a a 2-state solution based on 1967 lines letter to Netanyahu urging him to annex with agreed swaps as the basis of talks “Jewish-settled areas of the West Bank,” and imposed a settlement freeze (which but the government did not respond. Netanyahu had repeatedly rejected). Instead, Netanyahu focused on finalizing Israel promptly issued (10/1) a state- prisoners swap deals with Hamas (10/11) ment welcoming the proposal to restart and Egypt (ca. 10/20) that boosted his talks “without preconditions,” but not- image at home and Israel’s image abroad ing that Palestinian demands for clear, (see “A Prisoner Swap to Free Shalit Is agreed baselines in advance were proof Agreed” and “Israeli-Egyptian Prisoner that Palestinians were not serious about Swap” below for details). peace. Adding that “Israel has some With the UNGA session behind, Is- concerns,” it said it would “raise them at rael resumed provocative actions re- the appropriate time.” garding Jewish settlements that the U.S. Quartet reps. met (10/6) in Brussels termed “deeply disappointing,” “coun- to discuss how to encourage Israel and terproductive,” and “unhelpful to our the Palestinians to sign on to the plan peace efforts.” These included advanc- and pledged to invite the sides to a pre- ing (9/27) plans to expand an existing liminary meeting by 10/23 (in keeping settlement and approving (10/14) plans with 9/23 Quartet statement) to discuss to build a new settlement, Givat Ha- resuming direct talks. Ultimately, it was matos, in southern East Jerusalem that the Quartet reps. who traveled to the would cut Bethlehem off from Jerusa- region to hold (10/26) separate talks lem, and moves (early 10/2011) seen as with Palestinian and Israeli officials in seeking ways to legalize unauthorized Ramallah and Israel to urge them to settlement outposts built on private Pal- adopt the plan. Neither Abbas nor Ne- estinian land (see “Settlers and Settle- tanyahu agreed to meet with them per- ments” below for details). sonally, but instead were represented by The Palestinians, meanwhile, began their chief negotiators; no progress was to explore the possibility of seeking reported. full membership in other international organizations, starting with the UN Violent Palestinian Demonstrations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Or- Fail to Materialize ganization (UNESCO). When UNESCO The violent Palestinian demonstra- voted to approve membership on tions feared by Israel at the time of the 10/31 (see the “United Nations” section

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below), Israel promptly (11/1) cut off seen Abbas’s popularity spike because the transfer of VAT taxes to the PA and of the UN statehood initiative, whereas ordered accelerated construction of Netanyahu’s government was facing 2,000 housing units in East Jerusalem’s stiff domestic criticism from the July Har Homa settlement and the nearby 14th Movement over economic inequali- West Bank settlements Efrat and Ma’ale ties (see below). Meanwhile, the IDF Adumim, calling it Israel’s “right and staged (8/20–21) the largest West Bank obligation” to build in Jerusalem. The arrest operation since 2003, detaining PA stated (11/1) that it was “completely some 120 Palestinians, mostly Hamas unacceptable for Israel to respond to members and supporters, in a major a peaceful and legal move with a com- late-night military operation in Hebron pletely illegal response.” The U.S. said it district. Weeks later, the IDF detained was “deeply disappointed” with Israel. Hamas-affiliated PC mbrs. Muhammad The Israeli cabinet affirmed the decision Abu Tair in Ramallah on 9/5 and Fadil to suspend VAT transfers on 11/14 over Hamdan in al-Bireh on 9/14 (on top of the objections of Israeli DMin. officials 9 Hamas-affiliated PC members, Hamas worried that the move could destabilize politburo members, and local Hamas the PA and undermine West Bank secu- leaders detained last quarter; see Quar- rity. Meanwhile, Palestinian Internet ad- terly Update in JPS 161). dresses and phone networks in the West Nothing was publicly revealed about Bank and Gaza came under “multiple the talks until 10/11, when Israel sud- attacks” by computer hackers originat- denly announced that it has signed a ing from many countries. The PA said prisoner swap agreement with Hamas in (11/1) that the attacks appeared linked Cairo that would free Shalit in exchange to the UNESCO vote and that it believed for about 1,027 Palestinian prisoners they were “organized by a state” (i.e., in 2 stages: (1) within a week around Israel). 450 Palestinians would be released and Shalit transferred to Egypt; (2) within A Prisoner Swap to Free Shalit Is 2 months, the other 550 or so Palestin- Agreed ians would be freed. Those freed would Even as attention was focused on the include 315 serving life sentences, 27 Palestinian statehood bid at the UN, Ne- women, and several Israeli Palestinians. tanyahu and Hamas worked quietly to Ultimately, according to inside sources bridge their final differences on a pris- (NYT 10/17), the deal went through be- oner exchange deal to free captured IDF cause Hamas agreed to drop demands Cpl. Gilad Shalit (held in Gaza since for the release of several key prisoners 6/2006). A serious round of negotia- (including Fatah leader Marwan Bargh- tions had begun in early 8/2011 (see outi, Popular Front for the Liberation of Quarterly Update in JPS 161). On 8/17, Palestine [PFLP] leader Ahmad Saadat, Hamas leader Khalid Mishal arrived in and several senior Hamas military com- Cairo to meet with Egyptian intelligence manders) and conceded that Israel could officials to discuss details that might deport some 200 West Bank prisoners possibly seal a deal, but at the last mo- abroad or to Gaza (some would be al- ment Egypt postponed the meeting in- lowed to return to the West Bank after definitely without giving a reason and 3 years). Israel, for its part, conceded talks appeared to stall. At the time, the to Hamas’s demands on the number of PA Prisoner Affairs Min. reported (8/17) prisoners to be released and to release that Israel currently held some 6,000 some prisoners serving life sentences Palestinian prisoners, including 219 for killing Israelis. without charge, 44 who had been jailed The 1st stage of the swap took place for more than 25 years, and 299 who on 10/18. Hamas transferred Shalit to had been jailed since before the 1994 the International Committee of the Red Oslo accords. Cross (ICRC) in Egypt, which gave him Secret talks revived sometime later in a quick medical check before transfer- 8/2011 or 9/2011, apparently motivated ring him to the Israeli border, where he by the need of both Hamas and Netan- was taken to a military base in s. Israel yahu to boost their domestic popularity where he was met by his parents, PM (see WP 10/12 for analysis). Hamas had Netanyahu, and senior Israeli officials.

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Israeli medical officials said Shalit his membership in Hamas in 2005, was showed effects of malnourishment and released on 8/4/11 as part of a mass re- prolonged periods in the dark, but was lease to ease prison overcrowding (see otherwise healthy. Israel released 477 Quarterly Update in JPS 161). Palestinian prisoners to Egypt, which transferred 260 to Gaza (including 130 Cross-Border Violence expelled from the West Bank), 175 to During the quarter, there were two the West Bank, and 42 abroad (to Qa- instances of cross-border violence, one tar, Syria, and Turkey). More than 300 involving Egypt and the other the Gaza of those released had been serving life border with Israel, which escalated to sentences and 27 were women. The 2d the point of requiring foreign interven- stage of the release did not occur this tion to avert a large-scale Israeli opera- quarter. tion against Gaza. The Palestinian prisoners returned The first instance was precipitated by to heroes’ welcomes in the occupied a cross-border attack from Egypt on the territories. In Gaza, Hamas sponsored Israeli resort city of Elat. On 8/18, un- a large welcoming rally and put up identified assailants armed with heavy the deported West Bank prisoners in a weapons and explosives entered s. Is- luxury beach resort. In the West Bank, rael from the Egyptian Sinai and staged crowds waving Hamas flags greeted coordinated attacks (gunfire, mortars, returning prisoners. The outpouring and antitank missiles) against a bus, of support for the release reportedly several cars, and an IDF patrol in and (Ha’Aretz 10/24) raised concerns among around Elat, killing 7 Israelis (1 IDF sol- the IDF general staff that the prisoner dier, 6 civilians) and wounding up to swap deal had dangerously boosted 40, marking the deadliest attack on Is- Hamas’s popularity and undermined the rael since 3/2008. The attacks began at PA. The IDF recommended (ca. 10/24) midday and the clashes lasted over sev- that Netanyahu make a counterbalanc- eral hours (at least 7 infiltrators killed) ing gesture to Abbas by (in order of before Israeli security forces pursued preference): (1) releasing mostly Fatah the attackers back into Egypt, where Is- prisoners among the 550 in the 2d stage raeli troops clashed with Egyptian secu- of the Shalit prisoner swap; (2) releasing rity forces, killing an Egyptian military an additional batch of prisoners, all Fa- officer and 2 Egyptian border police and tah members, for Id al-Adha (on 11/6); injuring 2 others. Later in the evening (3) transferring more territory from area of 8/18, gunfire erupted again in Elat, B (joint control) to area A (full PA con- leaving 1 Israeli border policeman dead trol); or (4) returning the bodies of slain and another critically injured. “terrorists” to the PA. Netanyahu, his Though the IDF eventually concluded inner cabinet, and his senior advisers in a classified report (not released, but “vehemently opposed” the ideas, saying leaked to the Israeli daily Yedi’ot Aha- Abbas should be punished for the UN ronot [YA] ca. 10/15) that the attackers statehood bid. were likely al-Qa’ida-inspired Egyptians Of note: After the stage 1 release, the (see more in “Egypt” below), Israel im- IDF began (11/12) conducting late-night mediately accused Hamas of sending raids on the homes of some of Pales- terrorists from Gaza through the Ra- tinians released in the Shalit prisoner fah smuggling tunnels into Egypt and exchange, summoning at least 16 for thence into Israel. It therefore launched questioning and interrogating the fam- (8/18) 12 air strikes on s. Gaza, precipi- ily of another West Bank prisoner who tating 4 days of heavy cross-border vio- had been deported to Gaza. At least 1 of lence (see Chronology for details). Israel those interrogated was given a map de- initially targeted the Popular Resistance lineating boundaries within his district Committees (PRCs; an umbrella group beyond which he cannot go and a warn- comprising members of all Gaza fac- ing not to engage in any security activ- tions, including Fatah and Hamas), but ity. The IDF also rearrested (11/1) senior shifted (8/19) to targeting Islamic Jihad Hamas official Hassan Yousef in Ramal- (IJ) and then Hamas as they took the lah for having links to a “terrorist” orga- lead in launching retaliatory rocket at- nization. Yousef, originally arrested for tacks (see Chronology for details). In

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total, Israel made at least 46 air strikes Gaza targeting vacant Hamas sites— (warplanes and drones) and 14 artillery pro forma when Israel does not know strikes across the Strip, killing 14 Pales- the identity of the assailants but wants tinians (10 militants and 4 civilians, in- to punish Gaza’s ruling authority. After cluding 3 children) and wounding more identifying IJ as responsible, the IDF than 80 (including at least 8 women and launched 3 air strikes on an IJ training 12 children); the air strikes included 2 camp in s. Gaza, assassinating IJ field targeted assassinations that killed 5 se- commander Ahmad Shaykh Khalil and nior PRC members, an IJ senior military 4 other IJ members and wounding 3. commander, and the 4 bystanders men- IJ responded (10/29) with a volley of at tioned above. Palestinians (including least 24 rockets and mortars on s. Israel, Hamas, IJ, the al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade including at least 1 Grad that hit Ash- [AMB], and a small Salafist group) fired kelon, killing 1 Israeli and wounding 2. at least 112 rockets (including at least Over the next 24 hours (10/29–30), the 17 manufactured Grads) and 22 mor- IDF carried out another 15 air strikes tars, killing 1 Israeli and wounding 11 on 11 predominantly IJ targets across Israelis and 3 Palestinian laborers inside Gaza, killing another 7 Palestinians (all Israel. armed, mostly IJ) and wounding 4 (2 While Israel struck Gaza, protests armed, 2 bystanders). On 10/30, Egypt grew in Cairo over the IDF killing of secured another cease-fire pledge of the the Egyptian soldiers, threatening a ma- main Palestinian factions, but on 10/31 jor diplomatic crisis with Egypt (see unidentified Palestinians fired another “Egypt” section below). International 5 rockets into Israel, causing no dam- pressure was brought to bear, leading age or injuries. At this stage Israel re- Israel to shelve (by 8/20) internal dis- portedly was once again on the verge of cussions of launching a major military launching a massive operation against operation against Gaza. Meanwhile, Gaza but Egypt intervened, saying intel- Egyptian mediators helped secure Is- ligence indicated it was a small Salaf- raeli-Hamas agreement to restore their ist group that had fired the rockets, not cease-fire effective the evening of 8/21. Hamas or IJ, and asking Israel to wait While the situation improved notice- 24 hours before responding to see if the ably by late 8/21, serious cross-border cease-fire would take hold. exchanges continued as several smaller Tit-for-tat exchanges continued Palestinian factions (including IJ and across the Gaza through the close of the PFLP) resisted Hamas demands to stand quarter, leaving another 4 Palestinians down and Israel struck back hard. Be- (3 militants and a naval police officer) tween 8/22 and 8/26, when Hamas and dead. IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Egyptian mediators secured another Gantz warned on 11/15 that Israel might pledge from the factions and Israel to need to strike Gaza if rocket fire contin- halt fire, Palestinians fired another 50 ued, stating that Israel would initiate an rockets (including at least 2 Grads) and operation before it would allow itself to several mortars, moderately injuring 2 be “dragged into” one. Israeli children. Israel, meanwhile, hit back with nearly a dozen air strikes, Civil Disobedience killing 12 Gazans (6 militants, 6 civil- On 11/4, 27 international activists ians) and injuring 38; 1 Israeli airstrike and journalists (fr. Ireland, Canada, the on 8/23 was a targeted assassination, U.S., and Australia) sailing in 2 boats killing the head of IJ’s military wing in they called the Freedom Waves Flotilla Gaza. From 8/26 to 10/25, there were attempted to run the Gaza blockade. occasional reports of Israeli air strikes The Israeli navy halted and boarded the and Palestinian rocket fire, but no sus- boats off the Gaza coast and escorted tained exchanges. them to Ashdod port, where the boats A second major round of cross-border were confiscated and the activists de- exchanges began on 10/26, when un- tained. The organizer on 1 boat was identified Palestinians fired 1 Grad tasered by a soldier when he resisted missile into Israel, causing no dam- orders to leave his cabin and join the age or injuries. Israel responded with other activists being rounded up. Seven 6 air strikes on central and southern of the group were quickly deported

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after meeting Israel’s demands to sign killed by Palestinians during the quarter a statement that they had entered Israel died from Grad rockets fired into Israel. illegally. As of 11/8, the other 20 were Of the 56 Palestinians, air strikes killed still in custody, having refused to sign 42 (31 militants, 1 naval policeman, 10 the statement, but all were sent home civilians), IDF cross-border fire killed 1 before the end of the quarter. (a civilian who strayed too near the bor- Taking example from the U.S. civil der), and tunnel incidents killed 7, while rights movement of the 1960s, 6 Pales- 6 died of injuries received earlier (5 in tinian peace activists, dubbed Freedom air strikes, 1 in a tunnel accident). More- Riders, boarded (11/15) an Israeli com- over, 14 of the Palestinians killed in air muter bus linking the West Bank Jew- strikes this quarter were assassinated: ish settlements with Jerusalem and were 7 IJ members (8/19, 8/23, 5 on 10/27), arrested at an IDF checkpoint outside 5 PRC members (on 8/18), and 2 Hamas the city for attempting to enter without members (on 10/1); 4 bystanders were permits. The activists pledged to carry killed and 4 wounded in these attacks. out more such acts of civil disobedi- Israelis made a total of at least 99 air ence in the future to highlight Israel’s strikes (warplanes and drones) and 23 occupation. artillery strikes, whereas Palestinians fired at least 209 rockets (mostly home- Intifada Data and Trends made Qassams but including at least During the quarter, at least 58 Pal- 22 manufactured Grads) and around estinians and 2 Israelis were killed as 30 mortars. Of note: Egyptian officials a result of Israeli-Palestinian violence said that a Palestinian rocket fired from (compared to 15 Palestinians and no Is- Rafah on 8/23 landed inside Egyptian raelis last quarter), bringing the toll at Rafah, injuring 1 woman and marking 11/15 to at least 7,886 Palestinians (in- the first time a Palestinian rocket has cluding 51 Israeli Arabs and 19 uniden- landed inside Egypt; there was no indi- tified Arab cross-border infiltrators), cation the rocket was intentionally fired 1,113 Israelis (including 354 IDF soldiers into Egypt. and security personnel, 226 settlers, and Throughout the quarter, the IDF also 533 civilians), and 66 foreign nationals regularly fired warning shots at Pales- (including 2 British suicide bombers). tinians (typically farmers working their These numbers include individuals who land, shepherds herding flocks, civilians died in noncombat-related incidents scavenging for construction materials in if their death was a direct result of Is- the former settlement areas or demol- rael’s occupation and the ongoing con- ished Erez industrial zone, and nonvio- flict (e.g., ailing Palestinians who died lent protesters demonstrating against when denied access to medical care and Israel’s imposition of no-go zones) who Palestinians killed in smuggling tunnel strayed into the no-go zones on the accidents). Gaza side of the border, killing 1 Pales- tinian and wounding 7 (see Chronology Overview of the Violence for details). Israeli naval vessels rou- Overall, Israel-Palestinian violence tinely fired at Palestinian fishing boats in the occupied territories was moder- that sailed too far off coast (injuring 2 ate-to-high in Gaza and low in the West fishermen) and occasionally (e.g., 9/11, Bank this quarter (see Chronology for 9/19, 10/26, 11/9) detained fishermen, details). As noted above, some of the confiscating their boats and returning most serious violence took place during them to Gaza through the Erez crossing. cross-border incidents. The IDF also made several brief incur- In total during the quarter, Gaza- sions into Gaza (e.g., 9/6, 9/20, 10/4, related Israeli-Palestinian violence 10/6, 10/10, 11/2, 11/3) to bulldoze land claimed the lives of 2 Israelis and 56 and clear lines of sight along the border Palestinians. (The 8 Israelis and 3 Egyp- fence. tians killed in the Elat attack and ensu- In the West Bank, settler violence ing clashes are not included, as the final was high, while IDF operations (an av- consensus, including within the IDF, erage of 71 per week, down from 90 last seemed to be that those attacks were quarter) were the lowest in recent mem- staged by Egyptians.) The 2 Israelis ory. In total, 2 Palestinians in the West

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Bank were killed by Israelis (both on Days later (on 10/25), the IDF returned 9/23), one in a deliberate hit-and-run by to Dahiyat al-Barid and raided and a Jewish settler and the other when the sealed 3 offices of the al-Quds Develop- IDF opened fire with live ammunition ment Association, accusing the group of to disperse Palestinians trying to block having ties to Hamas and the PLFP. The Jewish settlers from entering their vil- association publicly protested, noting lage. Later the same day (9/23), 2 Jewish that it was licensed to operate by the settlers died in a car accident that set- Israeli government, but no legal motions tlers blamed on stone-throwing Pales- to lift the seal were reported before the tinians, but the IDF ruled it an accident end of the quarter. (these deaths therefore are not included Apart from the Elat attack, 2 major in the comprehensive toll above). For incidents took place inside Israel. On more on settler-related violence, see 8/29, a 21-yr.-old unaffiliated Palestinian “Settlers and Settlements” below. from Nablus entered Israel, stole a taxi By mid-9/2011, the IDF patrols dur- in Tel Aviv, drove it into a police check ing the day were almost exclusively point outside a popular nightclub, and conducted as shows of force, with ar- then stabbed several bystanders before rest raids and house searches reserved being subdued by police. No motive for for late at night. As noted above (see “A the attack was revealed, and no serious Prisoner Swap for Shalit Is Agreed”), the injuries were reported. IDF conducted its largest arrest sweep On 10/3, Jewish extremists set fire since 2003 overnight on 8/20–21, target- to a mosque in the Israeli Palestinian ing Hamas members and supporters in village of Tuba-Zangaria and scrawled the Hebron district. For the 3d straight graffiti reading “price tag,” “revenge,” quarter, the IDF aggressively entered and “Palmer” (in reference to Asher PA-controlled Jericho (e.g., 8/18, 9/7, Palmer, the Jewish settler killed on 9/23 9/23, 10/1, 10/3, 10/20, 10/27, 10/29, in a West Bank traffic accident that 10/30, 11/4, 11/8). For the 4th straight Jewish settlers claimed was caused by quarter, the IDF photographed Pales- stone-throwing Palestinians, a charge tinian cultural heritage sites during pa- the IDF denied). Some 200 angry Pal- trols (e.g., 11/10 in Kafr Qaddum near estinian residents marched toward a Qalqilya). neighboring Jewish town but were Of note: IDF troops in Hebron vio- blocked by Israeli police, who fired tear lently beat (10/11) a group of Palestinian gas to disperse them. Palestinian pro- children and teachers who refused new testers set fire to tires and threw stones IDF demands to submit to searches be- at police in response; no serious injuries fore crossing a permanent checkpoint in were reported. Netanyahu denounced Hebron’s al-Shuhada Street to reach the (10/3) the arson, and Pres. Peres and Is- Cordoba Elementary School, moderately rael’s 2 chief rabbis visited the mosque injuring 7 children (age 10–15). Days in a show of solidarity with the village. later (on 10/13), Jewish settlers attacked Israeli police arrested (10/6) an 18-yr.- and vandalized the school while classes old rabbinical student tied to a radical were in session, violently beating teach- Jewish settler as a suspect. ers who barred them from entering the Less than a week later, Jewish ex- school; IDF soldiers observed but did tremists vandalized (10/8) Christian not intervene. When teachers and stu- and Muslim graves in 2 Jaffa cemeter- dents held (10/16) a sit-in at the IDF ies, smashing headstones and scrawling checkpoint to protest the events, the Is- graffiti reading “Price Tag” and “Death raeli soldiers fired tear-gas and beat the to Arabs.” Some 200 Arab and Jew- protesters to disperse them, lightly in- ish residents rallied against the hate juring 3 children. crime on 10/8. Netanyahu and Israel’s In East Jerusalem, Israeli forces chief rabbis also denounced (10/8) the raided (10/23) the offices of the al- incident. Quds Development Association in Da- hiyat al-Barid (arresting the director Movement and Access Issues and then raiding his home) and the al- This quarter, Palestinian freedom of Iman School in Bayt Hanina (arresting movement in the West Bank remained a teacher and then raiding his home). relatively good (i.e., it was possible to

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go almost anywhere, though not nec- Palestinian public works projects nec- essarily by the most direct route). In essary to maintain public health stan- general, travel between major popula- dards, as well as wheat and fodder. tion centers continued to be easier than Commercial goods were largely lim- travel to outlying villages. As of 10/31, ited to foodstuffs, clothing and shoes, the UN Office for the Coordination washing machines, refrigerators, elec- of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) re- tricity generators, water tanks, pumps, ported 523 roadblocks (mostly earthen and machines for factories. Though mounds and unmanned barriers) across Israel said at the close of last quarter the West Bank; only a few dozen per- (see Quarterly Update in JPS 161) that manent manned checkpoints were in it would begin allowing textile and fur- place. (The IDF’s checkpoint infrastruc- niture imports for the first time since ture remained intact, however.) In addi- 6/2007, this did not happen this quarter. tion, OCHA reported around 475 “flying Meanwhile, smuggling of goods through checkpoints” (temporary checkpoints the Rafah tunnels, especially of con- imposed by the IDF as operations war- struction goods for private projects, re- rant) put up per month; though rarely mained high. in place for more than a day, these can be particularly disruptive to Palestinian Nonviolent Protests in the Territories travel as they are unplanned. As of 9/27, This quarter, Palestinians in the West OCHA reported that almost 80% of land Bank continued their regular weekly and roads in the Jordan Valley were off- protests against the separation wall, limits to Palestinians, being designated land confiscations, and demolitions, of- for Israeli settlement use, closed mili- ten with the participation of Israeli and tary zones, and “nature reserves.” international activists (see Chronology In Gaza, Israel maintained near total for details). Most were held in Bil’in and control of borders except at the Rafah Ni’lin near Ramallah, Nabi Salih in the crossing, where Egypt limited access to north central West Bank, Kafr Qaddum prevent a rift with Israel. On average village near Qalqilya, and outside Kar- per week, Egypt granted entry to 625 mei Tsur settlement near Hebron. As of Palestinians, turned back 134 Palestin- 9/23, when Abbas submitted Palestine’s ians that Hamas had granted permission membership application to the UN, to leave, and allowed 564 Palestinians to these regular weekly protests focused as return to Gaza via Rafah. Israel contin- much on rallying support for Palestinian ued to restrict use of the Erez crossing statehood. After Palestinian prisoners in on a case-by-case basis to urgent medi- Israeli jails went on strike (ca. 10/1) to cal cases, VIPs, and employees of inter- demand better conditions, some weekly national organizations. demonstrations also began (as of 10/7) Movement of goods was entirely re- to express solidarity with Palestinian stricted to the Israeli-controlled Kerem prisoners in Israeli jails and to call for Shalom crossing in s. Gaza, which Israel the release of Fatah’s Marwan Bargh- opened on average 5 days/week. (Is- outi and the PFLP’s Ahmad Saadat. The rael had closed Sufa crossing in 9/2010 calls for Barghouti and Saadat’s release and Qarni crossing in 3/2011, though continued even after the Hamas-Israel the infrastructure remained.) On aver- prisoner swap deal excluding them was age, 854 truckloads of goods per week announced on 10/11. entered Gaza (down from 1,047 last Overall, however, there were surpris- quarter and 30% of the weekly aver- ingly few West Bank demonstrations age before Hamas’s takeover of Gaza in in support of the Palestinian state- 6/2007), with food items constituting hood bid at the UN. Analysts suggested 51% of imports on average (compared (e.g., WP 9/19) that while the plan “had to 20% before the siege)—an indica- broad public support, it does not ap- tion that imports were still providing pear to be generating the kind of en- subsistence rather than economic stim- ergy that would fuel sustained protests ulation. No exports from Gaza were al- against Israeli occupation.” The first lowed. The range of imports remained reported rally held exclusively to sup- limited largely to construction material port the UN initiative was a small march for UN and donor-funded projects and by fewer than 100 Palestinians to the

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UN headquarters in Ramallah on 9/8. IDF drafted instructions on how set- A larger rally of 100s of Palestinians tlers should handle specific threat sce- and Israelis gathering on their respec- narios, such as Palestinians blocking tive sides of the Qalandia crossing into roads to settlements or “breaching” a Jerusalem was held on 9/17 (the only settlement’s defensive lines. The settlers joint Israeli-Palestinian rally reported requested that the IDF put these guide- this quarter). The PA organized 3 major lines in writing, but the IDF initially de- rallies in Ramallah on 9/21 (the open- murred, lest the settlers would see this ing of the UNGA session), 9/23 (the as authorizing rules of engagement for day Abbas submitted the petition to the settlers. While it was unclear how the UN), and 9/25 (welcoming Abbas much eventually was put to paper, the home). The PA closed schools and gov- IDF reportedly (Agence France-Presse, ernment offices during the UNGA ses- Ha’Aretz 8/30) did draw up maps of sion, and Fatah bussed demonstrators areas around each settlement defin- into Ramallah, pushing the turnout well ing “first lines” (which if Palestinians into the 1,000s. Other modest rallies crossed, the IDF and settlers would fire were held across the West Bank during tear gas and stun grenades) and “red the UNGA session but did not consti- lines” (which if Palestinians crossed, the tute major outpourings of popular sup- IDF and settler security officers would port. Organizers gave explicit orders to fire warning shots at their feet). The keep West Bank demonstrations in the IDF also supplied and trained settlers in heart of Palestinian cities and to stay far using tear gas and stun grenades, and away from checkpoints, roadblocks, and worked with settlement security officers other potential friction points. Palestin- to check emergency preparedness and ians largely obeyed; only 2 small stone- to identify weak points in settlement throwing clashes with IDF troops were defenses. The IDF and settlers went reported at the Qalandia crossing on on formal alert as of 9/19 and planned 9/20 and 9/23. to stay at heightened alert for several In Gaza, Hamas, angered that Ab- weeks after the UNGA session. bas had not consulted its leadership on Peace Now released a report on 9/7 the statehood issue (see more in “Pal- stating that in the 10 months following estinian Reconciliation” below), banned the end of the partial freeze on build- rallies in support of the UN bid; none ing in the West Bank in 10/2010, work took place. The ban was widely criti- began on 2,598 new settlement housing cized even by some senior officials units; 2,149 new units were completed, within movement; for example, Ahmad and building continued on at least an- Yousef, acting PM Ismail Haniyeh’s for- other 3,700. During the reporting pe- mer spokesman, said the ban “amounts riod, the rate of housing construction to repression of freedom of expression.” per Israeli on the West Bank was double Only 1 march to the Gaza border (pro- that in Israel proper. testing Israel’s imposition of a no-go This quarter, Israel took 2 major zone) was reported (11/1). steps that would cut off Bethlehem from Jerusalem. First, the government Settlers and Settlements advanced (9/27) plans to build 1,100 By late-8/2011, in anticipation of Jewish settlement housing units in “mass disorder” by Palestinians sur- Gilo in southern East Jerusalem near rounding the UNGA session, the IDF Bethlehem—a move the U.S. called prepared Operation Summer Seeds to (9/27) “counterproductive” to peace. defend Jewish settlements in the West Second, it approved (10/14) formal plans Bank. To this end, the IDF stepped up to build an entirely new 2,610-unit Jew- existing training exercises with the set- ish settlement, Givat Hamatos, in south- tlers’ “rapid response teams” created ern East Jerusalem in what Peace Now for each settlement in 2000 after the called (10/14) “a game changer that outbreak of the al-Aqsa intifada and significantly changes the possible bor- tasked with defending the settlement der between Israel and Palestine.” The in an emergency until the army ar- Givat Hamatos project was conceived rives, at which point they are supposed several years prior and if implemented to stand down. At settlers’ request, the will mark creation of the first new

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authorized Jewish settlement in East 10/31); vandalizing property, including 1 Jerusalem since 1997, when Har Homa mosque (8/17, 8/28, 8/30, 4 on 9/5, 9/8, was launched. The project envisions 2 on 9/12, 9/13, 9/17, 9/20, 4 on 9/24, constructing 4,000 units in 3 phases, of 9/29, 10/13, 11/6); arson, mostly to cars which the 2,610 units constitute phase 1 but including 1 mosque (9/5, 9/8, 9/12, (see Settlement Monitor in this issue for 9/15, 11/10); stealing livestock or olives details). (10/1, 10/19, 10/22); uprooting or set- In early 10/2011, Netanyahu also ting fire to trees and crops (8/23, 8/25, formed a special committee to look into 8/26, 9/1, 9/5, 9/8, 9/9, 9/12, 2 on 9/15, unauthorized settlement outposts built 9/18, 9/19, 9/22, 9/24, 9/29, 10/1, 10/6, on private Palestinian land. Israel had 11/6); dumping wastewater to pollute pledged to remove these, but many be- agricultural land (9/5); and obstructing lieved (see NYT 10/15) that the com- Palestinian traffic (2 on 9/5, 9/12, 9/13, mittee was being charged with finding 9/17). In addition, a Palestinian child a way to “legalize” them, though Ne- was killed in a deliberate hit-and-run by tanyahu denied this. In light of these a settler on 9/23. Of note: As of 10/18, concerns, the U.S. warned (10/12) that OCHA had recorded damage to more it opposed “any effort to legalize settle- than 8,000 Palestinian trees by Jewish ment outposts, which is unhelpful to settlers since the start of 2011. our peace efforts and would contradict The PA, fearing that Jewish settlers Israeli commitments and obligations” would try to draw Palestinians into (see Settlement Monitor for details). conflict during the UNGA session to As noted above, Israel ordered ac- show their untrustworthiness as part- celerated construction of 2,000 settle- ners for peace, viewed settler attacks ment housing units in East Jerusalem’s on 2 mosques (9/5 and 9/8), several ef- Har Homa settlement and the nearby forts by settlers (prevented by the IDF) West Bank settlements Efrat and Ma’ale to enter Palestinian villages between Adumim in retaliation for UNESCO’s 9/20 and 9/23, and several provocative decision to grant the Palestinian full marches and banner-wielding demon- membership. strations (9/20–27) as efforts to do just On 11/15, the Israeli Housing Min. that (see Chronology for details). Only launched a major advertising campaign 1 incident (on 9/23) erupted in violence, to sell 277 subsidized apartments in Ar- when settlers from Esh Kodesh outpost iel settlement near Salfit, 743 in Ramot near Nablus attempted to enter Qusra and 130 in Har Homa settlement in Je- village and were fended off by local rusalem, and 164 in Mod’in near Ramal- Palestinians; the IDF fired on the Pales- lah, as well as leasing 213 plots of land tinians to disperse them, killing 1 and zoned for construction in Efrat settle- wounding 7. ment near Bethlehem, 207 in Mod’in, The situation between Palestin- 168 in Har Homa, and 18 in Pisgat Ze’ev ian villagers in Qusra near Nablus and in Jerusalem. Jewish settlers from the nearby Esh Settler violence against Palestinians Kodesh outpost escalated this quarter. more than doubled this quarter (59 inci- Settlers burned a nearby mosque (9/5) dents compared to 25 last quarter). The and cars, fired on (9/16) and seriously breakdown of incidents by region was beat (10/21) local Palestinians, uprooted as follows: Nablus (14); Hebron (13); more than 200 trees (10/6), and carried Qalqilya (11); Ramallah (9); Salfit (4); out other vandalism (e.g., 9/25), prompt- Bethlehem (3); Jenin and the former Ho- ing residents to form nightly neighbor- mesh settlement site (2 each); and East hood patrols to protect against further Jerusalem (1). Settler actions included: settler incursions. In reaction, settler attempting to seize Palestinian land to leaders reportedly (NYT 9/24) began create new outposts (9/15, 9/19); at- training all adult residents with M16s tempting to enter Palestinian population and handguns, escalating concerns. centers in shows of force (2 on 9/20, On 9/5, the IDF removed structures 9/21, 9/23); beating, stoning, or harass- at the unauthorized settlement outpost ing Palestinians (8/20, 8/27, 9/16, 9/20, of Migron. In addition to several acts 3 on 9/24, 9/30, 10/1, 10/6, 2 on 10/10, of retaliation directed at Palestinians 10/13, 10/14, 10/19, 2 on 10/21, 10/22, (mostly vandalism and blocking roads;

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see Chronology), militant Jewish set- roads, new security fences around set- tlers vandalized (9/7) an IDF base near tlements, and construction of the sepa- Ramallah, damaging 13 vehicles and ration wall. This included a total of 831 breaking windows in apparent retali- dunams (d.; 4 d. = 1 acre) near Hebron ation. Jewish settlers also vandalized (9/21, 10/4, 11/1); 153 d. near Bethle- (ca. 9/15) Peace Now offices in Jerusa- hem (9/28, 10/3); and an undisclosed lem, spray painting “Price Tag Migron,” amount near Qalqilya (11/13). “Peace Now, The End Is Near,” “Re- venge,” and “Death to Traitors” on walls Separation Wall in reference to the 9/5 Migron removals. As of 9/27, OCHA reported that 62% The incidents exemplified the growing of the separation wall is completed (up trend of radical settlers exacting repri- slightly from 61.4% last quarter), with sals against Israeli (usually IDF) targets 80% of the wall built inside the West for attacks on settlers or government Bank. steps that restrict settlement expansion. The Israeli High Court rejected (8/23) In mid-9/2011, Israel’s national police an appeal by residents of al-Walajah force inaugurated a new unit aimed at near Bethlehem who challenged the tracking radical Jews, focusing on set- separation wall’s route, saying the resi- tlers that promote the price-tag doc- dents did not prove that the planned trine. Israel’s West Bank cmdr. Brig. route would severely harm the village. Gen. Nitzan Alon publicly expressed Even during the court challenge, work (10/11) grave concern over increasing on the wall segment that would cut off “Jewish terrorism” against Palestinians al-Walajah from Bethlehem, which be- by extremist Jewish settlers. gan last quarter, continued. On 10/3, Of note: On 11/7, the IDF, respond- the IDF leveled another 5 d. of agricul- ing to a complaint from Jewish settlers tural land and uprooted 95 olive and from Daniel settlement near Bethlehem, oak trees to make way for the wall. arrested 3 Palestinian farmers working On 10/4, the IDF leveled 15 d. of a plot of land in nearby Artas village, Palestinian agricultural land along the charging them with being “present on a separation wall n. of Hebron, including piece of land that is the subject of dis- uprooting and confiscating 600 trees, pute between the Palestinians and set- destroying irrigation infrastructure, tlers” and fining them $400 each. bulldozing several storehouses and a tent, and confiscating 2 mobile storage Demolitions and Confiscations structures and 2 generators. The IDF demolished at least 12 Pales- tinian homes this quarter: 4 near Jenin, 3 Inside Israel in East Jerusalem, 2 each in Hebron and The July 14th Movement Qalqilya, and 1 in Bethlehem. It also de- The weekly Saturday demonstrations molished a newly constructed mosque launched last quarter by Israel’s July in Khirbat Yazra near Tubas and, in the 14th Movement to call for social jus- Hebron area, an auto repair shop (9/13); tice (see Quarterly Update in JPS 161) several wells and irrigation networks, waned following the 8/18 Elat attack, tents, storehouses, and generators (10/4, which absorbed domestic attention. 10/6); and electricity poles serving a Whereas before the attack the rallies at- Bedouin community (11/2). Several tents, tracted in the 100,000s, participation on wells, and storehouses were also demol- 8/20 plummeted and on 8/27 drew only ished in Kafr Dik near Salfit (10/4). about 25,000. The round-the-clock tent In 2 incidents in Hebron (10/4, 10/6), camps, while remaining in place, also the IDF uprooted and confiscated at began to empty as the protests lost mo- least 850 olive and almond trees. At mentum. In effort to revive the move- least another 730 trees were cut down ment, organizers announced plans to by the IDF this quarter, mostly in Salfit. dismantle the tent camps and refocus (This is in addition to trees destroyed energies on forming local committees by Jewish settlers; see “Settlers and Set- to hold regular popular meetings and to tlements” above.) “take responsibility for the space they The IDF also confiscated Palestin- live in.” First, however, a final million- ian lands for expansion of settler bypass person march was called for 9/3 in Tel

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Aviv. That day, some 300,000 demon- decided to go to the UN without the strators turned out in Tel Aviv and an- consultations that would have made other 100,000 at other locations around the UN bid a national initiative. Tak- the country. Immediately thereafter, en- ing “unilateral” action, as Abbas had, campments were removed as planned, according to the Damascus-based though a few tents were left standing in leadership, undermined the spirit of prominent locations to serve as meeting the 5/2011 reconciliation agreement. places for strategy sessions and public Hamas’s acting PM in Gaza Ismail Hani- debates and as symbolic reminders to yeh toned down the criticism when he keep the movement alive. conveyed the message directly to Pales- tinian National Council (PNC) members Legislation and Government Affairs in Gaza City on 9/18, stating that Hamas On 11/13, Israel’s Ministerial Comm. would not stand in Abbas’s way on go- on Legislation approved (11-5) 2 bills ing to the UN and strongly supported seen by critics as aimed at curbing dov- Palestinian statehood, but was upset ish nongovernmental organizations that Abbas had not coordinated or con- (NGOs) critical of the government: one sulted with Hamas on the process. bill (the Funding Prohibition Bill) would In the run-up to the UNGA session cap donations to political NGOs by for- and in anticipation of a possible UN en- eign governments or international or- dorsement of the Palestinian statehood ganizations at around $5,000; the other bid, PNC chairman Salim Za’nun con- would impose heavy taxes on such con- vened (9/11) a preliminary meeting of tributions. By the end of the quarter, the long-defunct Palestinian Constitution the measures had not received the re- Comm. (PCC) in Amman to revive the quired Knesset approval. Sources said work plan for drafting a permanent Pal- (e.g., NYT, WP 11/14) that amendments estinian constitution. The PA currently to the bills were likely before they reach operates under an interim constitu- the Knesset, as Netanyahu wanted to tion (the Basic Law), drafted between tighten the language to “narrow the im- 1994 and 2002, passed in 2002, and pact” of the bills (i.e., make them less amended in 2003 and 2005. The revival likely to affect right-wing NGOs, whose of the PCC, established by Palestinian funds come mostly from private groups pres. Yasir Arafat in 11/1999 and whose and individuals). drafting efforts had been put on hold Former Israeli journalist Shelly Yachi- in the mid-2000s, met with some criti- movich was elected (9/22) head of Is- cism both from PA advisers (arguing rael’s Labor party, beating incumbent that statehood should precede a consti- Amir Peretz by 54% to 45% of the votes tution) and Hamas (which was angered in a run-off election. not to have been brought into the draft- ing process, in the spirit of the 5/2011 national unity deal). In any case, with Intra-Palestinian Dynamics the UN bid having stalled, no further steps were taken this quarter. National Reconciliation Given the Palestinian statehood bid PA Elections at the UN, Fatah made little effort to Under the 5/2011 national unity ac- implement the 5/2011 national unity cord signed last quarter, Fatah and deal; since many in the international Hamas agreed to hold legislative and community opposed national reconcili- presidential elections within a year, ation that would bring Hamas back into with the expectation that they would the governing authority, any such moves not be held until after the 9/2011 UNGA were seen as likely to undermine sup- session. In the wake of the agreement, port at the UN. the PA postponed the start of munici- As for Hamas, the Damascus-based pal elections from the planned 7/2011 leadership stated on 9/17 that while it until 10/22/2011 to allow time to orga- supported Abbas’s vision of a Palestin- nize voting in Gaza (update voter rolls, ian state (on 1967 lines, with East Je- etc.) without the political distractions rusalem as its capital), it opposed the in the run-up to the 9/2011 UNGA ses- UN statehood bid because Fatah had sion. On 8/22, however, Abbas issued a

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presidential decree postponing munici- that Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood had pal elections “until appropriate circum- also cut funding to Hamas, redirect- stances.” On 11/15, Fatah and Hamas ing the money to support Arab Spring agreed to hold legislative and presiden- demonstrations at home. Though uncor- tial elections on 5/4/2012 but did not roborated, the reports could explain at mention municipal elections (which are least in part why Hamas faced problems typically held first). They was also no paying civil servants’ salaries at the end word on formation of the caretaker gov- of last quarter (see Quarterly Update in ernment that, according to the 5/2011 JPS 161). national unity deal, should guide the Meanwhile, the Washington Times nation to the vote. (WT 9/7) noted that a mini construction boom was underway in Gaza thanks to: PA’s West Bank Rule (1) some Israeli easing of construction The PA continued to face a budget import restrictions; (2) ongoing smug- crunch because of the Arab donors’ fail- gling of commercial goods through the ure to fulfill pledges. The PA did pay Rafah tunnel; and (3) increased spend- civil servants’ salaries in full in 8/2011, ing by Gaza’s small middle class at Ga- as promised by PM Salam al-Fayyad (see za’s new malls, beach hotels, and cafes Quarterly Update in JPS 161), but as a and on big weddings. The report said result fell further behind in meeting that the increase in “luxury” spend- other obligations. The PA also scraped ing was creating jealousies. For the first together salaries for 9/2011 and 10/2011 time, reports (though unconfirmed) but with Israel’s cut-off of VAT taxes on noted that many middle-class spend- 11/1, by the quarter’s end the payment ers were Hamas loyalists (primarily in- of salaries for 11/2011 came into doubt. vestors and high-level civil servants), generating accusations that Hamas had Hamas in Gaza “gotten fat off the siege.” If true, this In a policy change announced on would mark a significant change from 8/16, Hamas’s Interior Min. in Gaza earlier times when Hamas won the 2006 stated that employees of civil society legislative elections in large part be- groups would have to register with au- cause they were seen as living modestly thorities 2 weeks before traveling out- and among the people. side the Gaza Strip for work, explain the reason for traveling, identify their foreign hosts, and list the names and Palestinian Opinion details of all participants in any pro- gram they would attend. Last quarter, in The following data are excerpted a move thought to indicate worry about from a poll conducted by al-Najah foreign-led agitation in Gaza, Hamas University’s Center for Opinion Polls authorities briefly demanded to audit, and Survey Studies between 13 and register, and monitor the finances of 15 October 2011. Results are based the charities funded by the U.S., appar- on a survey of 1,361 men and women ently fearing the aid would be funneled from the West Bank (including East to Fatah, but they backed down under Jerusalem) and Gaza. The poll, the U.S. pressure (see Quarterly Update in 43d in a series, was taken from al- JPS 161). Najah’s Web site at www.najah.edu. Noting that in mid-8/2011 Hamas officials in Gaza had broken up a rally 1. Do you think that submitting a denouncing the Syrian attack on Lata- bid by the PLO and the PA to recog- kia that forced some 10,000 Palestinian nize the State of Palestine in the UN refugees to flee (see Quarterly Update was a positive move that serves the in JPS 161), Reuters (ca. 8/25) cited un- Palestinian cause? named intelligence sources as saying West that Iran had withdrawn some funding Bank Gaza Total for Hamas in Gaza over its refusal to a. Yes 83.4% 68.0% 77.7% organize demonstrations in support of b. No 15.0% 26.2% 19.1% Syria’s Pres. Bashar al-Asad. The same c. No opinion/ 1.6% 5.8% 3.2% sources, according to Reuters, reported Don’t know

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2. How, in your opinion, does the 8. Do you supported conducting bid of recognition influence the presidential elections despite the Palestinian cause? Palestinian division? [Ed. note—The West responses are virtually the same Bank Gaza Total when the question is asked for legis- a. Positively 59.5% 50.6% 56.2% lative elections. When the question is b. No influence 19.3% 25.0% 21.4% asked for municipal elections, Yes/ c. Negatively 16.8% 18.8% 17.6% No votes are 54.7%/40.5% in the West d. No opinion/ 4.4% 5.6% 4.8% Bank; 30.4%/59.4% in Gaza; and Don’t know 45.8%/47.5% Total.] 3. Do think that there would be any West Gaza Total use to negotiations without accept- Bank able frames of reference and without a. Yes 34.8% 30.2% 33.1% the freezing of settlement activities? b. No 62.6% 62.4% 62.5% c. No opinion/ 2.6% 7.4% 4.2% West Don’t know Bank Gaza Total a. Yes 13.8% 16.2% 14.7% b. No 83.0% 73.2% 79.4% FRONTLINE STATES c. No opinion/ 3.1% 10.6% 5.9% Don’t know Egypt 4. Do you think that the Palestinian Egypt’s interim military government, State can only be established through the Supreme Council of the Armed negotiations? forces (SCAF; in place since 2/11/11), West maintained the same general policies Bank Gaza Total toward the Palestinians and Israel as the a. Yes 35.5% 19.8% 29.8% unseated Mubarak regime, but felt sig- b. No 59.6% 72.8% 64.4% nificant pressure from the street to take c. No opinion/ 4.9% 7.4% 5.5% a harder line toward Israel. The SCAF Don’t know prioritized ensuring security along Egypt’s northern border as part of its 5. Do you support or reject the rise of main objective of preventing any new an armed uprising? crises from arising while it ushered the West country through the transition to a new Bank Gaza Total permanent regime. a. Support 28.0% 49.8% 36.0% b. Reject 67.9% 39.8% 57.6% Tensions with Israel c. No opinion/ 4.1% 10.4% 6.4% The 8/18 attack on the Israeli resort Don’t know city of Elat by suspected al-Qa’ida- 6. Do you think that the USA is an inspired Egyptian Islamists and the impartial broker in the peace process? consequent Israeli army incursion into West Egypt that left 3 Egyptian soldiers dead Bank Gaza Total (see “Cross-Border Violence” above) sig- nificantly strained bilateral relations, a. Yes 13.1% 13.8% 13.4% deeply angered the Egyptian populace, b. No 85.7% 77.0% 82.5% c. No opinion/ 1.2% 9.2% 4.1% and raised Israeli concerns about the Don’t know SCAF’s ability to secure Egypt’s bor- ders. Analysts speculated (e.g., NYT, 7. Do you think that the surrounding WT 8/19) that the same homegrown Arab and international circumstances Egyptian Islamist groups suspected of necessitate concluding a national rec- staging attacks on Egyptian police and onciliation agreement between Fatah the earlier attacks on the n. Sinai gas and Hamas? pipeline to Israel and Jordan intended West to draw Egypt into a conflict with Is- Bank Gaza Total rael to punish the SCAF for launching a. Yes 81.6% 70.2% 77.4% a major military crackdown (1,000s of b. No 16.3% 22.8% 18.7% troops) against them the previous week c. No opinion/ 2.1% 7.0% 3.9% (see Quarterly Update in JPS 161 for Don’t know background).

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Between 8/19 and 8/20, 1,000s of the Israeli flag, gained access to some Egyptians angered by the killing of the offices, and threw documents into the 3 Egyptian soldiers gathered outside the street. Since the Jewish Sabbath had al- Israeli embassy to demand that the am- ready begun, most staff were not in the bassador be expelled. Meanwhile, the building; Egyptian security forces col- SCAF summoned (8/19) the Israeli am- lected the ambassador, his family, and bassador to demand an apology and an other staff from locations around Cairo investigation. The Muslim Brotherhood’s and secured them at the airport for candidate for pres., Abdel Moneim Abou evacuation to Israel. The 6 employees el-Fatouh, labeled (8/19) the incident inside the embassy locked themselves an Israeli act of war and called for the in an office and awaited rescue. Egyp- abrogation of the 1979 peace treaty. Is- tian riot police in 50 armored personnel rael’s formal expression of regret for carriers (APCs) fired tear gas and rubber the deaths issued 8/20 was called “in- bullets to disperse the protesters, who adequate” by the SCAF, which briefly responded with stones and Molotov threatened to recall Egypt’s ambassador cocktails. Heavy clashes continued over- to Israel but backed down after the inter- night. During the incident, Israel DM national community intervened to calm Barak phoned his U.S. counterparts to tensions. Experts believed (e.g., NYT, WP ask them to intervene with the SCAF to 8/20; NYT 8/27; WP 8/28) that Egypt’s urge them to protect the embassy; Ne- interim leaders wanted to avoid escalat- tanyahu spoke directly with Obama and ing tensions with Israel but felt “pushed the head of Egyptian intelligence. from below” to take popular sentiment Early on 9/10, after more than 13 into account in light of the Arab Spring. hours of heavy clashes (in which 2 To deescalate tensions, Israel sent Egyptians were killed, some 1,200 in- (8/21) a military delegation to Egypt to jured, and 19 arrested), Egyptian com- discuss preliminary findings of its in- mandos raided the embassy and freed vestigation into the Egyptian deaths, the 6 employees trapped inside, and prospects for a new Gaza cease-fire Egyptian riot police managed to dis- with Hamas (agreed later that day), and perse protesters. After an emergency steps to repair bilateral relations. U.S. cabinet meeting, the SCAF reimposed Asst. Secy. of State for Near Eastern Af- the reviled Mubarak-era emergency laws fairs Feltman and UN Coordinator for the indefinitely, allowing detentions without Middle East Peace Process Robert Serry trial until the SCAF deemed the secu- were also in Cairo to help mediate. Sepa- rity situation restored. Later, Netanyahu rately, Israeli DM Ehud Barak sent word gave a televised address pledging to up- (ca. 8/21) that Egypt could temporarily hold the 1979 peace treaty with Egypt ignore the provisions of the 1979 peace and to return Israel’s amb. to Cairo treaty and send as many troops, armored soon, saying the intervention of Egyp- vehicles (except tanks), and helicopters tian security forces “undoubtedly pre- into the Sinai as necessary to restore or- vented a disaster.” He added, however, der and guarantee border security. At that Egypt “cannot ignore the heavy Israel’s request, the SCAF stepped up ef- damage done to the fabric of peace.” In- forts to seal and monitor smuggling tun- terim PM Essam Sharaf countered (9/15) nels on the Rafah border with Gaza. that Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel “is By 8/21, the protests outside the Is- not sacred and is subject to change” de- raeli embassy began to dwindle, but pending “on what benefits the region.” 100s of Egyptians maintained a round- The Israeli embassy in Cairo re- the-clock presence denouncing Israel. opened on 9/19, but the ambassador To deter protesters, the embassy hired had not returned by the end of the contractors to build (beginning 9/3) a quarter. Another Israeli military delega- 12-foot wall around the building, which tion went to Egypt on 10/10 for further outraged Egyptians, who viewed it as a talks regarding incident, but no details mini version of Israel’s West Bank sepa- were released. ration wall. After Friday prayers on 9/9, 1,000s of Egyptian protesters besieged Israeli-Egyptian Prisoner Swap the Israeli embassy, tore down the new To ease tensions in the wake of the wall, scaled the building to rip down Elat and Cairo embassy incidents, Israel

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and Egypt agreed on a prisoner ex- majority of the population, would likely change deal (mediated by the U.S.; see remain in Jordan permanently. On 9/15, Panetta visit under “United States” be- 200 protesters turned out demanding low) that would free U.S.-Israeli dual in addition the expulsion of the Israeli citizen Ilan Grapel in exchange for 25 ambassador and abrogation of the 1994 Egyptians being held by Israel for non- peace treaty. The government deployed security-related offenses. Grapel was (9/15) large numbers of plain-clothes detained in Cairo on 6/12/11 on charges and uniformed security to corral pro- of inciting Egyptian protesters to riot testers and keep them from reaching and of spying and recruiting for Mossad the Israeli embassy to prevent an inci- (see Quarterly Update in JPS 161). Is- dent as in Cairo on 9/9. The demonstra- rael negotiated the deal while simulta- tions quickly ceased. neously working on the prisoner swap Also of note: In 10/2011, East Bank with Hamas (see “A Prisoner Swap to parliamentarians forced through a law Free Shalit Is Agreed” above). Talks banning Jordanians with dual nation- were well underway by early 10/2011, ality from holding senior government and the sides had reached a deal by positions. This was reportedly (New 10/20 but reportedly (al-Ahram online, York Review of Books 12/8) seen both Washington Jewish Week 10/20) wanted as a move against Palestinians, who as to wait for interest in the Shalit prisoner refugees are more likely to hold second swap to die down before announcing it passports, and as a snub to the King, publicly. The announcement was made whose mother is Welsh. on 10/24 and the swap took place on 10/27. Grapel returned home to the U.S. on 10/28. Lebanon Lebanon kept a low profile this quar- ter, particularly in light of the instability Jordan in neighboring Syria. Lebanon did take This quarter, Jordan’s involvement significant action with regard to the Pal- in the peace process was limited to re- estinians, however, formally upgrading maining in contact with the parties (8/17) the diplomatic status of the Pal- and occasional mediation. King Abdal- estinian delegation to an embassy. PA lah hosted at least 1 meeting related to Pres. Abbas made (8/16–17) a 2-day visit the peace process on 9/14 in Amman, to Beirut to mark the occasion, during where PA Pres. Abbas and Quartet en- which a formal ceremony was hosted voy Blair discussed the Palestinian (8/17) by Lebanese PM Najib Mikati at statehood bid at the UN and a possible the PLO delegation headquarters for- Quartet proposal for restarting peace mally inaugurating it as an embassy and talks. raising the Palestinian flag. Of note: On 9/14, some 70 Jordani- Other events of note this quarter ans rallied in Amman to demand the involved the UN Special Tribunal for closure of the U.S. embassy in protest Lebanon, which unsealed (8/17) the in- over WikiLeaks’ release of a 2008 U.S. dictments against the first 4 Hizballah embassy cable alleged to reveal a covert members charged in former Lebanese U.S. effort in collusion with Israel to PM Rafiq al-Hariri’s 2005 assassina- create a Palestinian homeland in Jordan. tion. (The indictments were filed in the In fact, the briefing paper, written by Hague in 1/2011 and sent to Lebanese then ambassador David Hale (the cur- prosecutors in 6/2011 so that arrest war- rent U.S. special envoy to the peace pro- rants could be issued; see Quarterly cess) to the State Dept. (see Doc. D1), Updates in JPS 159 and 161 for back- reported that while Jordanian officials ground.) The documents provided the avidly defended the Palestinian refu- public with a first glimpse of the evi- gees’ right of return in public, privately dence against the suspects, although some had acknowledged that a substan- experts noted (and the tribunal itself tial Palestinian return to homes in what acknowledged) that these were “mostly is now Israel was unworkable—the un- circumstantial,” based on analysis of stated conclusion being that many if not cell phone records purporting to show most refugees, perhaps comprising a that the cell phones used to coordinate

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the assassination were in the suspects’ above). The League also issued (8/21) a possession. Hizballah immediately de- statement condemning Israel’s killing of nounced (8/17) the findings, stating the 3 Egyptian soldiers 8/18 and hold- that the numerous recent arrests of sus- ing Israel “fully responsible” for the de- pected spies for Israel working in Leba- terioration of relations with Egypt (see non’s telecommunications sector (see “Overview of the Violence” and “Egypt” Quarterly Update in JPS 159) tainted above). Otherwise, attention was highly the evidence. The following day (8/18), focused on the Arab Spring protests still tribunal pres. Antonio Cassese warned sweeping the region. the Beirut government that its efforts to arrest the 4 wanted Hizballah mem- Popular Protests Regionwide bers since 6/2011 were “not sufficient.” The regionwide protests that began When no progress had been made by in 12/2010 continued in various states 11/11, the tribunal heard arguments on this quarter but increasingly lost the whether to hold a trial in absentia for feel of a broad regional movement as the 4 men. They opted to wait, say- often bitter local politics played out in ing a trial in absentia should be a last unique ways in each affected state. resort, and urged Lebanon to make Most attention was focused on Syria, greater efforts to capture them. where violence continued to spiral. As the quarter opened, popular protests and clashes with government security Syria forces were a daily occurrence across Once again this quarter, Syria was the country, with death tolls steadily almost entirely focused on its own do- mounting and army defections becom- mestic unrest (see “Regional Affairs” be- ing significant. There were signs that low). Of relevance to the Syrian-Israeli the popular resistance was beginning track, however, anonymous diplomats to take up arms in spots, and a serious with knowledge of International Atomic opposition (political and military) was Energy Agency (IAEA) investigations beginning to gel, mostly in the safe ha- stated (11/1) that a complex of build- ven of Turkey. Arab states had begun ings in al-Hasaka in northwestern Syria recalling their ambassadors in response may have been designed to be a secret to the violence; the U.S. and Turkey uranium-enrichment plant intended for warned of a strong international re- the development of nuclear weapons, sponse if Pres. Bashar al-Asad did not though they acknowledged that IAEA immediately cease hostilities; and the investigators found that it was currently UNSC had issued its first, though tepid, a cotton-spinning factory and showed statement expressing “profound regret” no signs of ever having been used for over the fighting. Protests, however, nuclear purposes. The diplomats argued were still localized, and relatively few that the complex’s design was strikingly were held in the key cities of Damascus similar to that Pakistani nuclear scien- and Aleppo. The activists inside Syria tist A.Q. Khan designed for Libya. The operated as independent local commit- IAEA and Syria refused to comment. tees and reportedly did not fully trust the diaspora opposition groups taking the political lead. The overall sense was REGIONAL AFFAIRS that Asad held the upper hand, but that the status quo was untenable for long. The only major regional meetings Through 8/2011, international criti- related to the peace process this quar- cism of Syria mounted. On 8/18, U.S. ter were Palestinian pres. Abbas’s meet- Pres. Obama and EU leaders called on ings with Arab League FMs in Doha on Asad to step down, and the U.S. im- 8/23 and Cairo on 9/12 to coordinate on posed heavy new sanctions freezing the Palestinian statehood bid at the UN. assets, barring trade, and banning Syr- Though Arab League states expressed ian petroleum imports. Over the next concerns of possible U.S. aid cuts if they 2 weeks, the EU (8/24) and U.S. (8/30) supported the Palestinian initiative, they expanded bilateral sanctions; Hizbal- agreed to back Abbas whatever deci- lah (8/26) and Iran (9/27) warned Asad sion he made (see “UN Statehood Bid” to meet the “legitimate demands of the

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people”; and the UN Human Rights opposition figures (mostly exiles but Council accused (8/18) Syria of violat- some from inside Syria) met in Istan- ing its citizens’ rights and possibly com- bul on 10/2 and formed the Syrian Na- mitting war crimes, recommending tional Council (SNC) as an opposition that the UNSC refer Syria to the ICC for leadership representing all branches of prosecution. the opposition (including the local co- With clashes continuing unabated, ordination comms. inside Syria, the Syr- the Arab League called (8/28) on Asad ian Revolution General commission, the to stop military operations and sent Supreme Council of the Syrian Revolu- Secy.-Gen. Elaraby to Damascus on 9/10 tion, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the to broker a cease-fire, but there was no “traditional dissidents” known as the agreement. Tensions in Syria escalated Damascus Declaration) and all sects. sharply on 9/11, when Syrian authori- The SNC, intended to serve as a parlia- ties turned over the body of popular ment to debate opposition strategy and rights activist Ghiyath Matar to his fam- policy, planned to have a 7-member in- ily, 4 days after he was detained dur- ner council (unnamed by the end of the ing protests in Dara’a and apparently quarter) and rotating presidency. Activ- beaten to death in custody. U.S. amb. ists inside Syria previously wary of the Robert Ford and other Western envoys external opposition hoped that creation attended (9/11) his wake. In response, of the SNC would breathe new life into more than 175 Arab and international the nonviolent protests and curb the human rights organizations submitted violent resistance that was springing (9/13) a petition to the Arab League re- up in areas like Homs. The government questing action to halt the violence and reacted quickly, assassinating a mem- spur democratic change in Syria, includ- ber of the SNC exec. comm., Mashaal ing calling for asset freezes and an arms Tammo, in Qamishli on 10/7 and warn- embargo. ing (10/8) that it would take “tough By mid-9/2011, steadily increasing measures” against any country that rec- reports of civilians (especially in Homs) ognized the SNC. Protests and clashes using weapons against troops raised continued, with Friday demonstrations concerns of armed civil war. Uncon- escalating into the 10,000s, and by early firmed reports from activists in Syria 10/2011 government forces with tanks estimated (9/16) that 10,000 troops had and APCs had launched major opera- defected to support the opposition and tions in Rastan outside Homs and near that several hundred had formed 2 rival Idlib in the north, engaging in “intense groups: the Free Syrian Army and the battles” with 100s of army defectors. Free Officers Movement. Even assum- Observers (e.g., WP 10/1) said the bat- ing these numbers to be highly exagger- tles highlighted “the increasing mili- ated, experts noted (e.g., WP 9/26) that tarized nature” of the uprising. At the defections definitely seemed to be on same time, reports of sectarian fighting the rise. began to increase. On 9/28, the UNSC convened to dis- With the situation deteriorating, the cuss international action against Syria. Arab League convened on 10/16 and After a week of debate, China and Rus- debated whether to suspend Syria’s sia cast (10/4) a rare double veto to membership. The move needed a two- block a UNSC res. condemning Syria thirds majority and a significant bloc and threatening sanctions. (Both coun- was opposed, including Algeria, Leba- tries had extensive commercial and, in non, Sudan, and Yemen. Instead, an Russia’s case, military ties to the Asad Arab League delegation went (10/26) regime.) The draft had 9 votes in favor, to Damascus to urge Asad to end the with Brazil, India, Lebanon, and South crackdown and open a dialogue with Africa (which expressed concerns that the opposition. Meanwhile, the White the measure could serve as a pretext for House recalled (10/24) Amb. Ford for regime change) abstaining. his safety, and Syria, in retaliation, sum- Meanwhile, the internal and external moned Amb. Imad Moustapha to Da- oppositions tentatively began to coor- mascus for consultations. dinate. After some resistance from ac- On 11/2, Arab League and Syr- tivists inside Syria, a group of Syrian ian officials met in Cairo, where Syria

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accepted a plan to restore peace and down; and the EU imposed (11/14) ad- move toward democracy, including ditional sanctions. Faced with the Arab withdrawing troops, releasing political League refusal, Asad released 1,180 po- prisoners, and opening talks with op- litical prisoners and significantly cut position leaders within 2 weeks. Qatar’s back engagements with protesters on Shaykh Hamad bin Jassem, influential 11/15, but it was unclear whether the in securing the deal, said that if it was Arab League would view this as enough not immediately implemented, the Arab to delay Syria’s suspension. League would reconvene to discuss As of 11/15, nearly 400 Syrians had “other options.” Even as talks were un- been killed since Asad accepted the derway in Cairo, Syrian forces launched Arab League deal on 11/2, bringing a major operation to retake in Homs, the UN-estimated death toll to at least where sectarian violence (reportedly in- 3,500 (up from 2,000 when the quar- cluding kidnappings, beheadings, and ter opened); 1,000s more were injured dumping of bodies in local squares) and jailed. Turkey estimated (11/14) that and army defections were escalat- 19,000 Syrians had fled into its territory ing. By 11/8, after 6 days of “continu- since the violence began and that some ous bombing,” at least 111 Syrians had 7,600 were currently living in refugee been killed in what observers called camps on the border. Lebanese authori- (e.g., NYT, WP 11/9) one of the most ties estimated (10/31) that more than violent episodes of the uprising and a 5,000 Syrians had fled to Lebanon. major setback to the protest movement. In Libya, as the quarter opened the In addition, Syria reportedly (NYT, WT rebels’ Benghazi-based Transitional Na- 11/2) had also begun mining areas near tional Council (TNC) oversaw a loosely the Lebanese border to prevent refu- united array of antigovernment (mainly gees from fleeing and smugglers from tribal) forces operating across the coun- bringing weapons in. try to oust Col. Mu’ammar Qaddafi, who In light of the new escalation, the had gone underground to evade cap- Arab League (encouraged by Qatar) ture. Rebels controlled most of eastern called (11/9) another emergency meet- Libya, key areas along the western bor- ing that convened on 11/12 and voted der, the strategic oil town of Zawiyah, (18-2, with Lebanon and Yemen voting and some sections of Tripoli. NATO air against and Iraq abstaining) to suspend strikes, ostensibly to protect the civilian Syria’s membership if the 11/2 agree- population from Qaddafi forces, were ment was not implemented by 11/15, acknowledged by most NATO coun- encouraged states to withdraw their tries as aimed at unseating the Qaddafi ambassadors from Damascus, and sum- regime. Most Western nations had for- moned opposition leaders to meet in mally recognized the TNC as Libya’s le- Cairo on 11/15 to formulate “a unified gitimate government and were working view of the coming transition period.” internally and with the UN to find ways The League also planned to meet in of legally transferring Libya’s frozen as- Morocco on 11/16 to discuss impos- sets to aid the insurgency and prevent ing sanctions and recognizing the SNC. central government collapse, but the Turkey supported (11/15) the decisions recent assassination (7/28/11) of TNC and agreed to attend the 11/16 meeting head and top rebel military commander, to coordinate its position with the Arab Gen. Abdul Fattah Younis, possibly by states. his own men, raised deep concerns In response, Syria called (11/13) for about the TNC’s stability and reliability. another emergency Arab League sum- By 8/23, Tripoli was under almost mit to defend itself and invited officials total rebel control, though Qaddafi’s to visit Syria before the suspension went whereabouts was still unknown and into effect on 11/16. The Arab League fighting continued in pockets through- rejected Asad’s requests on 11/15 and out the country. On 8/24, world diplo- instead met with the SNC to discuss a mats including U.S. Asst. Secy. of State transition. In addition, Turkey recalled Feltman met in Doha to orchestrate a (11/13) some of its diplomats; King Ab- transition in Libya, including clarifying dallah of Jordan became (11/14) the the rebel leadership and securing bil- first Arab leader to call on Asad to step lions of dollars in funding. Nonetheless,

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concerns persisted about divisions war detained without charge in jails and among the rebels over leadership and make-shift detention centers around rivalries among regional groups and be- the country controlled by local rebel tween secularists and Islamists. militias. On 9/10, with fighting still ongoing As of 8/16, Pres. Ali Abdullah Salah in the last few Qaddafi strongholds, the of Yemen was still in Saudi Arabia re- new head of the TNC Mustafa Abdul ceiving medical treatment for injuries Jalil (a widely respected judge) arrived sustained in an assassination attempt in the capital to set up government last quarter (see Quarterly Update in there. French pres. Sarkozy and Brit- JPS 161), reiterating his plans to return ish PM David Cameron visited Tripoli home soon. He continued to consider in support on 9/15. On 9/16, the UN ac- a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pro- cepted the TNC’s credentials as Libya’s posal to transfer power to his VP (see official representation and lifted some Quarterly Update in JPS 161), repeatedly economic sanctions on Libya. On 9/20, changing the conditions under which he the U.S. returned its ambassador and re- would implement the deal in what most opened its embassy. saw as a ploy to buy time until he could By 10/2, rebels were closing in on return to Yemen. the last Qaddafi stronghold in his home- On 8/17, opposition leaders formed a town of Sirte, where he was finally cap- national council to act as a “government- tured and killed by rebels on 10/20 after in-waiting” until Saleh formally stepped a NATO attack in which U.S.-drones down and elections were held, in hope and French warplanes bombed his con- that the move would reignite the popu- voy. On 10/23, Libya’s TNC declared lar uprising, which had largely stalled. liberation as Libyans everywhere cel- The council comprised 143 members ebrated. On 10/31 (after an unsuccessful representing the official opposition attempt in late 9/2011 to form a credible parties, prodemocracy activists, tribal cabinet), the TNC elected U.S.-educated leaders, southern separatists, military prof. Abdurraheem el-Keib as the new commanders, and the current govern- interim PM, to serve until elections in ing party. Meanwhile, al-Qa’ida forces 6/2012 select the body that would draft ramped up fighting with government a new constitution. Hours later, NATO troops in effort to exploit the popu- formally ended its 7-month operation. lar protests to unseat the government (Of note: Qatar revealed on 10/26 that and assert power. Though large Friday its U.S.-trained special forces had fought protests calling for government reform on the ground with Libyan rebels, in- continued, starting from early 9/2011 cluding during the fighting in Tripoli.) through most of the quarter the Is- The TNC’s next priority of forging a lamist-government fighting dominated national army out of the rebel militias domestic attention. was far from completed at the end of On 9/9, a Yemeni government dele- the quarter. The jockeying for military gation went to Saudi Arabia to persuade control sparked 3 days of heavy tribal Saleh to sign the GCC deal and trans- fighting in Tripoli 11/9–12, highlighting fer power to his VP and acting pres. Libya’s uncertain future. Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi rather than The toll of the fighting was widely “adding more complications to the cri- disputed and impossible to confirm at sis.” Saleh agreed (9/12) only to give the end of the quarter. As of 9/16, the Hadi the right to negotiate a transfer of TNC claimed that 30,000–50,000 rebels power deal with the opposition, but re- and supporters had died, not including tained the right to reject the deal. Qaddafi forces and loyalists. Meanwhile Meanwhile, Saleh’s son and heir ap- statistics gathered by the ICRC from parent, Ahmad, deployed (9/12) the Re- morgues and “mass graves” nationwide publican Guard in the capital. On 9/18, (see NYT 9/17) put the confirmed death the forces fired on antigovernment dem- toll at around 3,000 (Benghazi 1,350; onstrators in Sana’a with machine guns Misrata 1,083; Tripoli 700; “mass graves” and other weapons, setting off street 125), with around 4,000 still missing. battles that left at least 24 dead and Unconfirmed sources also reported (WP 200 wounded, threatening to scuttle 10/23, 10/24) around 7,000 prisoners of any transition deal. Fighting between

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soldiers loyal to Saleh rival Gen. Ali areas of Taiz, killing at least 15 in the Mohsen al-Ahmar and government se- most violent single episode in months. curity forces (9/19–22) left an additional As of 11/15, Saleh was still in Yemen. 75 dead. The violence derailed diplo- Al-Jazeera put (11/18) the death toll at matic efforts to ease out Saleh, with “several hundred” since proreform dem- analysts saying (NYT 9/22) “that may onstrations began in 1/2011. have been precisely the point.” In out- In Egypt, activists and political lying provinces, army fighting against groups grew increasingly uneasy with Islamist forces continued and the econ- the Supreme Council of the Armed omy deteriorated, with food shortages Forces (SCAF), the interim military gov- widespread (with 39% of children going ernment headed by Field Marshall Mo- hungry, including 8% experiencing hammed Hussein Tantawi that took “severe” hunger). power in 2/2011, initially vowing that Saleh returned from Saudi Arabia on a transition to a democratically elected 9/23, in a move seen as challenging the government would take 6 months. By U.S., which had strongly urged him to mid-10/2011, members of the SCAF step down. In a televised speech (9/25), said they planned to retain full con- Saleh stepped up rhetoric against Ah- trol of the government after parliamen- mar, calling him a power-hungry “ter- tary elections (now slated to begin on rorist” even while stating that the edict 11/21/2011) and until formation of a transferring most powers to VP Hadi new constitutional assembly, ratifica- was still in effect and that he would re- tion of a new constitution, and election turn to Riyadh soon for more medical of a new president—a process they treatments. On 9/29, he said he would said could stretch beyond 2013. The not step down unless the Ahmar clan SCAF had already put measures in place also agreed not to run in elections or (9/10) to extend the Mubarak-era emer- hold positions of power in the future gency laws and on 9/19 rejected the Is- government. lamist group al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya’s On 10/16, as the UNSC debated a request to form a political party to com- draft resolution denouncing Saleh, the pete in elections. At the close of the GCC rejected Saleh’s request to mod- quarter (ca. 11/10), the SCAF issued ify the power transfer proposal to al- guidelines for a new constitution, in- low him to remain as president until cluding recommendation that the mili- 2013. Meanwhile, antigovernment pro- tary be given special political powers testers opened what observers called and protection from civilian oversight (NYT 10/17) a “dangerous new phase” “into perpetuity,” raising new concerns of protests in Sana’a. Between 10/15 and that the junta had no intention of ever 10/18, they repeatedly marched out of a stepping down or allowing transition to government-designated area protected civilian rule. Egyptian protesters regu- by Ahmar’s soldiers to challenge Saleh’s larly took to Cairo’s Tahrir Square to security forces in government-controlled protest as a warning to the SCAF that territory. Saleh’s forces fired guns and they would renew massive demonstra- mortars at the protesters, leaving more tions if it went too far. Meanwhile, than a dozen dead. Mubarak’s trial was suspended (9/24) On 10/21, the UNSC unanimously on appeal by prosecution lawyers that condemned the state violence against a judge was biased in Mubarak’s favor, antigovernment demonstrators in Ye- could not be trusted, and must be re- men and endorsed the GCC transition placed; as of 11/15, there had been no plan. The U.S. then issued (10/21) a ruling. separate statement calling on Saleh to Tunisia held (10/23) elections to heed the wishes of the Yemeni people choose members of the committee that and step down immediately. On 10/25, would draft a new constitution. Final Saleh’s government signed a cease- results were released on 11/14, showing fire deal with Gen. Ahmar’s forces, that the Islamist Ennahda party was the but fighting continued in some areas biggest vote-getter, winning 89 of 217 through the end of the quarter. On seats (3 times the seats of the 2d-place 11/11, government forces shelled anti- party) and considerable sway in decid- government demonstrators in residential ing the new constitution. International

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observers deemed the vote free and fair. Turkish-Egyptian partnership forming a On 11/15, veteran human rights activ- new axis of power for regional realign- ists Moncef Marzouki was named in- ment, also anticipating major growth in terim president and head of constitution their bilateral trade and investment. committee. Some observers (e.g., NYT 9/27) In Jordan, antigovernment demon- noted, however, that Erdogan and other strations were small (rarely numbering Turkish diplomats were beginning to more than 5,000) but persistent, put- show signs of arrogance in their quest ting enough pressure on King Abdallah to assume a larger regional role. At the that he dismissed (10/17) the govern- 9/2011 UNGA session, there was wide- ment of PM Ma’ruf al-Bakhit, who had spread griping among delegates about been widely criticized for dragging his the size and aggressiveness of Erdogan’s feet on reforms and corruption probes entourage, which at one point got into and accused of attacking anticorrup- a major brawl with UN security officers tion opposition groups. The king named that left 1 UN guard hospitalized; sev- Awn Khasawneh, a judge at the ICC eral other scuffles between Erdogan’s since 2000 and known for his integrity, bodyguards and UN security followed. to form a new government. The new, At home, Erdogan was revving up Turk- reform-minded cabinet was sworn in ish nationalism and romanticism over on 10/24, by which time the king had the Ottoman past, with observers saying also appointed a new intelligence chief (NYT 9/27) “the sense of rising Turkish amid claims that the previous chief had power and influence is so pronounced intimidated antigovernment protesters in the country these days that it some- and journalists. On 10/26, Abdallah de- times borders on jingoism.” clared that beginning in 2012, he would Meanwhile, after months of consid- give up his exclusive right to choose the eration (see Quarterly Updates in JPS PM and allow the elected parliament 158, 159 for background), Turkey agreed to make the appointment. The king re- (9/2) to install a NATO missile defense tained, however, the right to veto the radar system on its soil; the U.S. had choice, in which case he would work urged the move because the system, with parliament to select a consensus though designed to protect Europe, PM to form a cabinet. would have a dual use blocking missiles Occasional antigovernment protests fired at Israel by Iran. The deal was fi- and clashes were reported in Bahrain nalized on 9/15, but installation of the (e.g., 8/31, 9/1, 9/16) and Saudi Arabia system had not begun by the end of the (ca. 10/4), where the governments were quarter. still on edge over protests last quarter Of note: NATO officials expressed (see Quarterly Update in JPS 161) and concern (9/30) over the potential re- the mood was tense. gional fall-out of an escalating dispute between Turkey and Cyprus over a joint Turkey Cypriot-Israeli natural gas project cur- The Arab Spring and Regional rently underway to test drill an offshore Influence natural gas field that Turkey claims is While Turkey continued efforts to ex- at least partially in its territorial waters. pand its Middle East diplomacy and role (Turkey had threatened to send war- this quarter, it focused less on Israel- ships into the Mediterranean to push Palestinian–related issues and more back the Cypriot drillers.) NATO, of on the Arab Spring (see Quarterly Up- which Turkey is a member, assured date in JPS 161). In mid-9/2011, Turkish Ankara that it would not interfere in its PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan undertook bilateral relations with other states. what the press (e.g., NYT 9/13) called an “Arab Spring tour” of Egypt, Libya, Relations with Israel and the UN’s and Tunisia to encourage democratic Palmer Report reform and increase Turkey’s regional Tensions with Israel also increased. weight. Soon after, in an interview be- As the quarter opened, the UN’s Palmer fore leaving for the UNGA session in Commission, established in 8/2010 to New York, Turkish FM Ahmet Davu- investigate Israel’s 5/2010 attack on the toglu put forward (9/18) a vision of a Turkish aid flotilla to Gaza that left 9

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Turkish activists dead aboard the Mavi for using “excessive and unreasonable” Marmara (see Quarterly Update in JPS force to subdue protesters aboard the 157), had completed its final report by ship. Israel was urged to express “re- 7/2011 but delayed its release at the re- gret” for the deaths and to pay compen- quest of Turkey, Israel, and the U.S. (see sation to the families, which Israel had Quarterly Update in JPS 161 for back- already offered to do in lieu of apolo- ground). The 4-member commission, gizing. The report stated that “Israel comprising 2 UN-appointed investiga- faces a real threat to its security from tors (Sir Geoffrey Palmer, a law profes- militant groups in Gaza” and as such sor and former PM of New Zealand; and the naval blockade was “a legitimate se- former Columbian pres. Alvaro Uribe, curity measure” and in compliance with an Israeli ally) plus 1 representative international law. It also stated that Is- each from Israel and Turkey, was not raeli soldiers faced “organized and vio- mandated “to make determinations of lent resistance” by passengers and that the legal issues or to adjudicate on li- “there exist serious questions about the ability” and had been confined to re- conduct, true nature, and objectives of questing evidence through diplomatic the flotilla organizers.” channels rather than interviewing pri- In response, Turkey immediately mary actors. Under the terms of refer- (9/2) expelled Israel’s ambassador and ence, in the absence of consensus, the several other senior diplomats, sus- final report could be agreed by the 2 pended military agreements with Is- UN-appointed members only. Strong rael, and stated its intention to display objections to many of the findings by a larger naval presence in the Mediter- Turkey in particular raised international ranean to defend its ships from Israeli concerns that the report’s publication attack. Israel reiterated (9/2, 9/4) its re- would further deepen the Israeli-Turk- fusal to apologize. Although both sides ish rift, prompting the delay. The hope said (9/2) that they valued their bilateral was that the two sides, with U.S. media- relationship and hoped to mend ties, tion, would be able to agree on a joint by 9/5 each was intensively interrogat- statement and thereby defuse tensions. ing tourists entering from the other’s As the quarter opened, debate on nation. Erdogan briefly considered (ca. the statement’s wording continued. Ac- 9/5) making an official trip to Gaza cording to Israeli officials (8/16), U.S. from Egypt as a snub to Israel, but de- Secy. of State Clinton had phoned (8/16) cided against it to avoid damaging Tur- Israeli PM Netanyahu urging Israel to key and Egypt’s relations with the U.S. apologize to Turkey for the raid, but Ne- During a 9/12 visit to Cairo, Erdogan tanyahu had refused. While confirming said that Israel’s attack on the flotilla that the call had taken place, the State was “cause for war” but that Turkey had Dept. said (8/17) that it was “inaccurate” showed restraint. to say the U.S. urged Israel to apolo- In his address to the UNGA session gize. The following day, Erdogan stated on 9/22, Erdogan criticized Israel for that relations between Turkey and Israel its failure to take serious steps toward could not heal as long as Israel does peace, its continued occupation and op- not apologize, pay compensation, and pression of Palestinians, and its pursuit lift the Gaza embargo. FM Ahmet Davu- of nuclear weapons. Though the U.S. toglu made similar comments on 8/19. had attempted to patch up Israeli-Turk- Meanwhile, the target date for releasing ish relations on the UNGA sidelines, no the report set for 8/20 was twice de- further moves in that direction were re- layed to allow continued negotiation, to ported for the rest of the quarter. no avail. On 9/2, the Palmer Commission fi- Iran nally released its report (see Doc. A1) With international attention focused without a joint statement. The report, on the Arab Spring and the Palestinian which largely favored Israeli’s position, statehood bid at the UN, there was no found that Israel had the legal right to serious effort by the international com- impose a naval blockade of Gaza and to munity to revive diplomatic talks with stage the armed raid of the Mavi Mar- Iran concerning its nuclear program. As mara, but reprimanded IDF soldiers a result, Iran moved to consolidate and

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speed up the program. On 8/22, Tehran other targets in the U.S. and abroad. Of- announced that it had begun moving ficials said the plot was orchestrated by its centrifuges for uranium enrichment Iranian American Mansour Arbabsiar from Natanz to its new underground (an auto parts dealer from Texas), who facility at Fordo. (Britain estimated on “happened to hire a paid informant for 11/3 that Iran would have all of its nu- the Drug Enforcement Admin. [DEA] clear enrichment facilities underground to carry it out,” though they offered no and out of strike range within 1 year.) specific evidence. Iran denied (10/11) On 9/4, after years of delays, Iran’s first the accusations. nuclear power plant in Bushehr began Most analysts in the U.S. and abroad providing electricity, although not yet at (e.g., WP 10/12, NYT 10/16) were skep- full operating capacity. (Russia supplied tical of the story: According to NYT the enriched uranium for the reactor 10/13, “senior American officials them- and repatriated the spent fuel to pre- selves were struggling to explain why vent it from being processed into weap- the [elite Quds Force] would orches- ons-grade plutonium.) Meanwhile, Iran trate such a risky attack in so amateur- unveiled (8/23) a new cruise missile de- ish a manner.” Nonetheless, the U.S. signed to hit targets at sea and deployed stuck by its accusations and threatened (8/31) a submarine and a warship to the (10/11) new sanctions against Iran. Is- Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea in a show rael’s Iran watchers quickly said (JTA of force. 10/18) the revelation was proof of “the Amid these provocative actions, the Iranian regime’s deepening radicaliza- IAEA released (9/2) a report affirming tion . . . [and] underscores the urgency that Iran seemed to be speeding up its of the threat posed by Tehran’s nuclear nuclear program, citing Iran’s move- weapons.” ment of enrichment processes under- Over the next week, the U.S. and Is- ground, installation of new equipment rael rapidly escalated their saber rattling to enrich uranium to a purer state (see toward Iran. Israeli officials revived Quarterly Update in JPS 161), and stock- talk about a preemptive strike on Iran’s piling more uranium than necessary for nuclear sites. By 10/15, the Obama ad- its medical reactor. The IAEA also noted ministration was pressing the IAEA increased concerns about past “and pos- to release publicly the classified intel- sibly ongoing” research on nuclear war- ligence mentioned in the 9/2 report, head designs, but did not give details. claiming that it would prove that Iran The same day (9/2), NATO announced was on the cusp of nuclear weapons ca- its agreement with Turkey to install a pability. In response, the IAEA released missile defense radar system on Turkish (10/17) 2 reports that concluded Iran’s soil that could have a dual use blocking nuclear program was performing poorly missiles fired by Iran at Israel. and suffering numerous setbacks, short- Days later, under stiff Russian pres- ages of parts, and other problems (in sure to make some concession to the in- part due to foreign sabotage). The re- ternational community, Iran put forward ports stated that while Iran continued to (9/5) its first proposal since 10/2009 enrich uranium, output was down sig- to provide nuclear assurances, offering nificantly in 2009 and 2010 because of to allow the IAEA “full supervision” of the Stuxnet virus (see Quarterly Update its nuclear sites for 5 years if all inter- in JPS 158). Separately, analysts noted national and bilateral sanctions were (WP 10/18) that Iran’s nuclear experts dropped. IAEA officials and Western seemed increasingly desperate in their diplomats were skeptical, citing lack of procurement attempts and were mak- clarity about the meaning of “full super- ing more mistakes, signaling the nuclear vision” and Iran’s expectations regard- program was in trouble. ing sequencing. Through mid-10/2011 and early On 10/11, U.S. officials accused “ele- 11/2011, the U.S. and Israel repeat- ments of the Iranian government” and edly hinted at a possible preemptive its elite Quds Force of plotting with strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with Mexican drug traffickers to assassinate the talk and contingency planning so Saudi amb. to the U.S. Adel al-Jubeir overt that many (e.g., NYT, WT 11/3) be- in Washington and possibly to attack lieved the true intent was to scare the

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international community into agreeing items after claiming to have halted its to stiffer sanctions on Iran at the up- nuclear research in 2003. In the run-up coming IAEA meeting in late 11/2011 in to the report’s release, Western diplo- effort to avert the attack. On 10/19, U.S. mats who had seen the report touted it Secy. of State Clinton went to Oman for (WP 11/7) as providing “unprecedented talks primarily about Iran, raising suspi- details of the research and experiments cions that the U.S. was building a case being undertaken” by Iran toward a nu- for a strike. Addressing the opening of clear weapons program, and as showing the Knesset’s winter session on 10/31, that “Iran’s government has mastered Netanyahu warned of the grave threat the critical steps needed to build a nu- posed by Iran and hinted that Israel clear weapon.” Experts privy to the re- might make a preemptive strike, stat- ports, however, called (NYT 11/7) the ing: “Our policy is guided by two main data “hardly conclusive” and noted principles: the first is ‘if someone comes (NYT 11/9) that “the basic allegations to kill you, rise up and kill him first.’” . . . are not substantially new and have On 11/1, Netanyahu openly complained been discussed by experts for years.” that he was unable to secure a majority Experts quoted by the Washington Post in his 7-member inner cabinet to autho- said (11/9): “Iran does still seem to be a rize the preemptive strike, with the vote long way from having a rapid breakout stuck at 3 in favor (Netanyahu, Barak, capability.” The IAEA itself concluded and Lieberman) and 4 against (includ- that the data pointed to “a structured, ing Moshe Ya’alon, who believed the focused, and secretive effort by Iran to U.S. should be the one to attack). The acquire the essential skills for weapons- next day, Israel tested a long-range mis- building.” With the evidence out, the sile capable of striking Iran, carried out U.S. and Israel were “strikingly muted” long-range refueling exercises to Sar- in their reactions, which observers (e.g., dinia (farther away than Iran), and on NYT 11/9, 11/14) saw as further proof 11/3 staged a major preparedness drill that they had never seriously planned in Tel Aviv simulating missile barrages for an attack, but rather aimed at secur- on Israel. Meanwhile, Britain said (11/2) ing additional sanctions. that it had stepped up its contingency planning for a strike on Iran, having INTERNATIONAL concluded that the U.S. may decide to fast-track plans for targeted missile United States strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Speaking at a G20 meeting on 11/3, Obama cited On the eve of the 2012 presidential the “need to maintain unprecedented campaign season, the Obama adminis- pressure on Iran,” while French pres. tration had 4 primary regional consid- Sarkozy stated that “France would not erations: (1) maintaining calm on the idly stand by” if Israel’s survival was Israeli-Palestinian front, (2) withdrawing threatened. U.S admissions (9/23) that it U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, had given Israel bunker-busting bombs (3) harnessing to the extent possible and plans (announced 10/21) to rede- the Arab Spring to its advantage (or at ploy U.S. troops from Iraq to Kuwait to least preventing regional chaos); and (4) serve as a rapid reaction force capable demonstrating a hard line on Iran. With of confronting Iran also raised tensions Israel and the Palestinians unable to (see “United States” section for details). agree on terms for restarting talks, most The IAEA, under continued U.S. expected the peace process to remain pressure, finally issued (11/8) the data in deep freeze until after the 11/2012 the Obama administration had de- elections. This included Obama’s senior manded ca. 10/15. The new evidence, Middle East adviser Dennis Ross, who collected by 10 unnamed countries announced (11/9) at a lunch with Jew- and independent sources since 2004, ish leaders that he had submitted his showed that Iran had made computer resignation and would step down in models of warhead designs and field 12/2011 to return to work at the pro- tested explosive triggers that could be Israel Washington Institute for Near used for a nuclear weapon, and that East Policy. Anonymous colleagues said it may have continued work on these (11/9) that his decision reflected “the

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diminishing chances for a breakthrough Palestinian statehood bid had satisfied in either Iran or the Arab-Israeli peace all his concerns. process” before the 2012 elections. By mid-9/2011, the Democratic Na- Of note: Obama announced (10/21) tional Comm., fearing a flight of Jew- that all U.S. troops would be out of Iraq ish voters because of Obama’s poor by 12/31/11. At least 100,000 had al- relationship with Netanyahu, had set ready been withdrawn, and 40,000 cur- up a Jewish outreach program target- rently remained. In their place, the U.S. ing Jewish groups, donors, and other planned to maintain an extensive force supporters with emails and phone calls of civilian advisers. Many of the com- countering the Republican message that bat troops were to be moved to Kuwait, Obama is hostile to Israel. The Obama’s where the U.S. planned to build up a reelection campaign launched (9/20) its force that could respond to a collapse of own outreach to American Jewish voters security in the Gulf or a confrontation by holding a mass conference call, with with Iran. To this end, the U.S. was also top campaign officials briefing Jewish considering sending more naval war- supporters on counterpoints to criticism ships to the region. In 6/2011, Obama that Obama’s support for Israel is weak. pledged to have all U.S. troops out of Meanwhile, in an address to Israeli Afghanistan by the end of 2012. diplomats and American Jewish lead- U.S. Defense Secy. Leon Panetta ers gathering on the sidelines of the toured (ca. 10/2–8) Europe and the Mid- UNGA session in New York, Texas gov. dle East primarily to assess the effects and Republican presidential candidate of the Arab Spring. On 10/3, he met Rick Perry disparaged (9/20) Obama’s with PM Netanyahu and DM Barak in Is- Middle East policy as “naïve, arrogant, rael and with Pres. Abbas and PM Salam misguided, and dangerous,” calling his al-Fayyad in Ramallah, prodding both stance on the Palestinians “appease- sides to accept the 9/23 Quartet initia- ment,” and saying Israel should have tive and expressing concerns at Israel’s full control of Jerusalem and the unfet- growing isolation. He also mediated be- tered right to continue settlement con- tween Israeli officials (10/3) and Egypt’s struction throughout the West Bank ruling council (10/4) for the release of and East Jerusalem. He also accepted alleged spy for Israel Ilan Grapel (see an invitation from right-wing Israeli MK “Israeli-Egyptian Prisoner Swap” above). Danny Danon (Likud) to visit Israel. In Brussels, he met (10/7) with Turkish Analysts attributed (e.g., NYT 9/21; Defense Minister İsmet Yılmaz and re- NYT, WP 9/22) Obama’s unprecedent- affirmed that intelligence from the new edly strong support for Israel and oppo- NATO radar station in Turkey would not sition to the Palestinian statehood bid in be shared with Israel. his UNGA speech on 9/21 in large part to the extreme pressure from congres- 2012 Election Campaigning sional Republicans and Obama’s con- Hinting at possibilities to come in cerns over his reelection prospects. the 2012 presidential race, little-known Republican Bob Turner won (9/13) a U.S.-Israel Relations special congressional election in New On 9/13, the State Dept. took the York by 8% in a traditionally Demo- rare step of reversing a decision to im- cratic district after former Democratic pose sanctions on 2 companies for aid- mayor Ed Koch issued an appeal call- ing Iran’s oil industry. U.S. officials ing on voters to choose Turner to send affirmed that an Israeli company and “a message to President Obama that he its subsidiary had exercised all due dili- cannot throw Israel under a bus with gence and could not have known that impunity.” (Koch was referring to the they were selling an oil tanker to an Ira- Obama-Netanyahu dispute last quarter nian shell company. The original sanc- over Obama endorsing 1967 lines with tions, imposed in 5/2011 (see Quarterly agreed land swaps as the basis of final Update in JPS 160), had caused uproar status talks; see Quarterly Update in JPS in Israel. 161). Soon after (9/27), Koch endorsed Anonymous U.S. officials confirmed Obama for president in 2012, stating (9/23) that the Obama administration that Obama’s UN speech opposing the had been quietly supplying Israel with

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bunker-busting bombs since 2009. Israel Meanwhile, the Obama admin. had repeatedly requested the weapons wanted to make sure that the House from the George W. Bush administration Republicans would not block $50 m. in between 2005 and 2008, but the requests aid for the U.S. Security Coordinator’s were consistently denied under pressure (USSC) mission to train the PA security from the Pentagon. The sale had report- forces if the statehood bid progressed. edly been opposed: (1) in light of Israel’s To this end, Secy. of State Clinton and previous history of sharing classified U.S. U.S. amb. to Israel Daniel Shapiro ap- military technology with China, and (2) pealed (in late 8/2011) directly to PM out of concern that it could be viewed as Netanyahu, who personally urged mem- endorsement of an Israeli attack on Iran. bers of Congress visiting Israel during Pentagon and White House officials re- summer recess to continue the security fused to comment. aid. House majority leader Eric Cantor Meeting in Washington on 8/26, Is- (R-VA) led (ca. 8/22) one such delega- raeli and U.S. trade reps. agreed to tion of 25 Republican House reps. to work on identifying and removing trade Israel this quarter. (More than 80 House and investment regulations that ham- reps. visited Israel during the recess; per the bilateral exchange of goods and see Quarterly Update in JPS 161 for ear- services. lier trips.) Following the UNGA session, Con- Congress gress delayed pursuing legislation to cut Eager to show their support for Is- aid to the PA to see how Israel would rael in a presidential election season, react, with congressional staffers say- members of Congress on both sides of ing (Washington Jewish Week [WJW] the aisle (but especially Republicans) 10/6) that “how much gets cut . . . de- were quick to threaten ending U.S. aid pends on what Israel advises” and that to the Palestinians in the event that Ab- lawmakers were “meeting behind the bas went ahead with the statehood bid scenes with Israeli diplomats in delicate at the UN. In the run-up to the UNGA negotiations” over the funding issue. session, Congress denied (8/18) a re- The lawmakers and staffers noted that quest by the United States Agency for Israel was “wary” of cutting aid for the International Development to disburse USSC mission, because it had proven ef- a final humanitarian aid payment of fective in keeping the West Bank calm. $192 m. for FY 2011 set to be trans- Analysts noted (WJW 10/6) that Israel ferred to the PA in 8/2011. Rep. Kay was in a bind, having encouraged Con- Granger (R-TX), the chair of the House gress to threaten aid to get Abbas to appropriations subcomm. overseeing back away from the UN statehood initia- foreign aid, warned (9/13) that if Ab- tive and the Hamas reconciliation, while bas went through with the UN applica- publicly backing continued funding for tion, “we will no longer fund. We stop the USSC and infrastructure building. our funding because our position is that In this situation, congressional insiders [the Palestinian move] stops the peace advised, “If the Israelis want continued process—because they are going out- security funding for the [PA], they have side the peace process.” The day the to explicitly say so in order to give po- UNGA session opened (9/21), the Senate litical cover to lawmakers—particularly Foreign Relations Comm. warned that Jewish Democrats, who will be blasted it would move to cut off aid to the PA by Republicans for any generosity to and close the PLO mission in Washing- the Palestinians in the wake of their UN ton if Abbas submitted his application. push.” Similarly, Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL) and 42 On 10/11, Israel’s West Bank cmdr. cosponsors introduced (9/8) a resolution Brig. Gen. Nitzan Alon, reflecting the (H.Res.394) that would support Isra- views of the military establishment, el’s right to annex the West Bank if the publicly urged Congress not to cut aid Palestinians went ahead. A bipartisan to the PA in retaliation for the statehood group of 14 U.S. senators sent (9/19) a bid, stating: “Stability in the region in- letter urging Obama to use his address cludes the ability of the Palestinian Au- to the UNGA to reaffirm the U.S. special thority to pay its salaries. . . . Reducing relationship with Israel. the Palestinians’ ability to pay decreases

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security. American aid is relevant to this 3 dozen House reps. (including Majority issue.” Secy. of State Clinton also ap- Leader Eric Cantor [R-VA]), and Chris- pealed (10/27) to Congress not to cut tians United for Israel (CUFI) head John security aid to the Palestinians follow- Hagee, but of these high-profile fig- ing the Palestinian initiative. The White ures, only Hagee participated. The main House provided Congress with more event was a “Restoring Courage” rally than 1,000 pages of documents support- at Jerusalem’s Western Wall on 8/24 to ing the administration’s contention that urge support for the U.S.-Israel special the aid supports U.S. security interests. relationship and to “empower Israel to On this basis, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen defeat its enemies and stand up to an (R-FL), chair of the House Foreign Af- increasingly hostile world.” The main- fairs Comm., released (11/7) the hold on stream Israeli media either ignored or $197 m. in 2011 security funds for the downplayed the visit or (according to PA, but maintained the hold on the $192 Jerusalem Post International 9/9) “casti- m. in 2011 humanitarian aid for NGOs. gated him as an extremist and marginal On 11/8, 44 House Democrats signed force in the U.S.” and an anti-Semite. a letter sponsored by Reps. David Price In late 9/2011, Malcolm Hoenlein, (D-NC) and Peter Welch (D-VT) and en- head of the Conference of Presidents of dorsed by J Street, urging the House Major American Jewish Organizations Appropriations Comm. not to cut 2012 (CPMAJO), and Abe Foxman, head of security or economic aid to the Palestin- the Anti-Discrimination Comm., took is- ians and calling support of Abbas’s PA sue with VP Joe Biden over comments an “essential strategic interest of Israel he had made in a recent meeting with and the United States.” Democratic Jewish supporters concern- Obama’s pledge in his 9/21 UNGA ing convicted spy for Israel Jonathan address to provide funding to support Pollard. Asked why Pollard was still in the democratic transitions spurred by prison, Biden replied, “President Obama the Arab Spring also hit a nerve with was considering clemency, but I told Congress. Analysts noted (e.g., WP 9/25) him, ‘Over my dead body are we go- that due to the U.S. budget crisis, Con- ing to let him out before his time.’ . . . gress already had been slow to support If it were up to me, he would stay in jail Obama’s 5/2011 call for $1 b. in new aid for life.” Hoenlein and Foxman immedi- and loans (debt swap) to jump-start the ately asked to meet with Biden “to give Egyptian economy after Mubarak’s fall. Jewish leaders the chance to make the Rep. Ileana Ross-Lehtinen (R-FL) stated case for Pollard’s release.” Biden agreed (9/24) that Congress was concerned (10/5), and on 11/22 met with Hoenlein, about the nature of the new leader- Foxman, and 5 other Jewish leaders ships brought about by the Arab Spring, for over an hour. Hoenlein described “their agenda, their commitment to (11/22) the meeting as “meaningful and peace . . . and, most importantly, about productive,” but gave no details. their commitment to a strong relation- In early 11/2011, 18 former U.S. sena- ship with the U.S. Yet, the Obama ad- tors wrote a letter asking Pres. Obama ministration is rushing to offer all sorts to commute Pollard’s sentence, calling of incentives.” No new funding was ap- his life term “severely disproportionate proved before the end of the quarter. and . . . a gross miscarriage of justice.” This marked the first appeal on Pol- Lobbies lard’s behalf from a group of senators. Conservative commentator Glenn Jewish Agency for Israel dir. Alan Beck made a 4-day visit to Jerusalem Hofman stated (ca. 9/21) that with the and Israel (8/22–25) to hold a series of resettling of Ethiopian Jews in Israel televised “Zionist rallies” intended to nearly complete, the agency planned to portray himself as the leader of Chris- focus on bringing American Jewish col- tian conservatives. Beck bragged (8/21) lege students to Israel for study abroad, that his entourage would include 4 pres- saying that Israel’s future survival de- idential candidates (Michele Bachmann, pended on bringing Diaspora and Is- Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Mitt raeli Jewish youth together. (Of 22,000 Romney), nearly a dozen senators (in- American Jews who study abroad each cluding Sens. Joseph Lieberman [I-CT]), year, only around 600 choose Israel.)

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The project would build on the Birth- and Energy Dept. (1990–99) employee, right Israel program and would include and also worked as a consultant for Is- a component facilitating choosing to rael Aerospace Industries (1998–2008). move to Israel. After uncovering an email in 2002 in Jewish News One network, the first which Nozette threatened to sell secrets 24-hour Jewish satellite news service, to Israel, the FBI set him up for a sting. began broadcasting on 9/21. The net- When approached, Nozette demanded work then had studios in Brussels, Tel $2 m. and an Israeli passport in ex- Aviv, New York, and Kiev, and planned change for information. bureaus in Washington, Paris, and Lon- On 10/5, Israel dismissed its deputy don. Broadcasts began in English, with ambassador to Washington, Dan Arbel, plans to expand to Hebrew, French, Ital- for allegedly leaking top-secret informa- ian, Russian, and German. The network tion to an Israeli journalist in 2009. The is the $5-m. brainchild of 2 Jewish busi- information reportedly pertained to Iran nessmen, heads of the European Jewish and the leak strained Israeli ties with Union, who first floated the concept to the U.S. American Jewish donors in 4/2011 (see Quarterly Update in JPS 160). Russia Also of note: The Museum of Chil- dren’s Art in Oakland, CA, announced Russia’s participation in the peace (9/8) that under pressure from local process was limited this quarter to (1) pro-Israel groups, it had canceled plans the Quartet, where it gave lukewarm to host an exhibit of art by Palestinian endorsement to the U.S.-drafted 9/23 children in the Gaza Strip organized by initiative for restarting Israeli-Pales- the Middle East Children’s Alliance (a tinian talks, and (2) the UNSC, where California NGO). it strongly supported the Palestinian statehood bid. In the context of French Legal Action pres. Sarkozy’s 9/21 proposal to restart- New details came to light this quar- ing negotiations under broader interna- ter in the case of former FBI Hebrew tional mediation (see “New Offers as the translator Shamai Leibowitz, who UNGA Session Convenes” above), Mos- pleaded guilty in 1/2010 to leaking cow reiterated (early 10/2011) its long- classified transcripts of conversations standing offer to host an international caught on FBI wiretaps to a blogger. On conference to relaunch Israeli-Palestin- 9/5, Israeli journalist Richard Silverstein ian peace talks, but no one seriously ex- stepped forward to reveal that he was pected this would happen soon. the unnamed blogger and that the clas- sified transcripts (around 200 pages) were of wire taps on the Israeli embassy European Union in Washington and included conversa- The 27 EU states were particularly tions between embassy officials and divided over the Palestinian statehood “American supporters of Israel and at initiative at the UN, and thus were sub- least 1 member of Congress.” Silverstein jected to intensive lobbying by the stated that Leibowitz leaked the trans- Palestinians, Israelis, and Americans. lations to him out of conviction that Is- Britain, France, Germany, and Portu- rael’s “efforts to influence Congress and gal, currently members of the UNSC, shape American public opinion were were especially targeted. As the quar- excessive and improper” and out of con- ter opened, Germany, Italy, the Nether- cern over an Israeli strike on Iran. lands, and most former Soviet satellites Under a plea bargain, former senior that were EU members generally op- government scientist Stewart Nozette posed the statehood bid; Belgium, pleaded guilty (9/7) to selling top-se- Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and most Scan- cret information on U.S. military satel- dinavian countries leaned toward sup- lites and other technology to an FBI porting it. Britain and France were on agent posing as an Israeli spy in ex- the fence, saying their vote would de- change for a 13-year prison sentence. pend on the text of the PLO application. Nozette held the highest level security EU FMs met on 9/2 to discuss the state- clearance as a White House (1989–90) hood initiative but were unable to agree

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on a unified position. On the eve of the reopen during the Madrid peace talks in UNGA session, Israel was confident that 1992, and shuttered it along with other even if the EU bloc split, the Palestin- official Palestinian institutions in East ians would not be able to secure the Jerusalem in 8/2001 at the start of the support of an EU majority. al-Aqsa intifada. Perhaps because of these divisions, On a bilateral level: Britain, under the EU as a group focused more on sup- political pressure from Israel, modi- porting the Quartet efforts to convince fied (9/15) its universal jurisdiction law Israel and the Palestinians to resume (allowing British courts to prosecute negotiations. EU foreign policy chief individuals suspected of committing Catherine Ashton planned 2 days of grave violations of international law meetings in the region 9/12–13 to con- regardless of the individual’s national- fer on the Palestinian statehood bid and ity, country of residence, or where the a potential Quartet statement on resum- alleged crime was committed) to give ing talks, meeting with Abbas and the the director of public prosecutions Arab League in Cairo on 9/12 and Ne- the power to veto the issue of arrest tanyahu and other senior Israeli officials warrants for universal jurisdiction of- in Israel on 9/13. At Israel’s request, fences. The move was seen (e.g., Pales- Ashton extended her stay in the region tinian Center for Human Rights 9/19) through at least 9/15 in an unsuccess- as “a purely political move designed to ful attempt to help Quartet envoy Blair block the arrest of war criminals from and U.S. envoys Ross and Hale broker ‘friendly’ countries.” Pro-Palestinian a Quartet deal aimed at averting a cri- groups in Britain previously used uni- sis at the UNGA session. During their versal jurisdiction laws to issue arrest 9/12 meeting, Abbas asked Ashton di- warrants for IDF Maj. Gen. Doron Al- rectly how the EU would respond if the mog in 2005 and Israel’s former acting Palestinians sought observer-state sta- PM Tzipi Livni in 2009. tus rather than member-state status. She Of special note: On 10/4, the Par- replied that the EU would not officially liamentary Assembly of the Council state its position until it saw the text of Europe (PACE) voted (110-5, with of the formal Palestinian application, 10 abstentions) to grant the Palestine but acknowledged that the individual National Council (PNC) the status of EU states would be divided no matter “partner for democracy,” which allows which option Abbas pursued. When Ab- PNC reps. to speak before the PACE as- bas decided to seek full membership via sembly and most committees. PACE is the UNSC, the 4 EU states on the UNSC an international investigatory and ad- split as expected, with Germany leaning visory body whose recommendations toward opposing the motion and Brit- on issues related to human rights, in- ain, France, and Portugal intending to ternational law, and cultural coopera- abstain. This division contributed to the tion have significant weight with the UNSC deadlock and its failure to issue European Parliament and other EU in- a recommendation, effectively blocking stitutions. Israel was granted observer the Palestinian bid; no vote was actually status in 1996. taken. The EU as a body never stated a Also of note: On 9/1, pro-Palestinian position on the application. activists in London, in an act of nonvio- Meanwhile, the EU formally called lent protest against Israel, repeatedly (8/17) on Israel to allow the Palestinians interrupted a live 75th anniversary per- to reopen offices in East Jerusalem in formance by the Israel Philharmonic Or- keeping with phase 1 of the 2003 road chestra to the point that BBC had to cut map plan. The statement was prompted off its live broadcast. by Israel’s renewal (ca. 8/17) of its clo- sure order against the Orient House and United Nations the Palestinian Chamber of Commerce in East Jerusalem. Orient House tradi- While the Palestinian statehood bid tionally served as the PLO’s de facto at the 9/2011 UNGA session was the ma- headquarters in occupied East Jerusa- jor UN event of interest this quarter, a lem. Israel sealed the office at the start handful of other actions affecting the of the first intifada in 1988, allowed it to peace process took place in UN bodies.

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UNESCO Membership for Palestine join UN agencies were “not beneficial On 10/5, UNESCO’s 58-member ex- for anybody” and would lead to cuts in ecutive council voted (40-4, with 14 UN funding affecting millions of peo- abstentions) to give the Palestinians pre- ple. The Palestinians took no further ac- liminary approval to upgrade their sta- tion this quarter. tus in the organization from observer (held since 1975) to full member. On World Conference against Racism 10/21, UNESCO’s 193-member general On the sidelines of the UNGA ses- conference affirmed the decision (by a sion in New York, the UN held (9/22) vote of 107-14, with 52 abstentions and an international gathering (called Dur- 20 not present). In both cases, the U.S. ban 3) to mark the 10th anniversary of opposed and the EU was divided; in the 2001 World Conference Against Rac- the final vote, 11 EU states (including ism (WCAR) in Durban, South Africa, France) voted in favor, 5 (including Ger- which had given special focus to Israel’s many) voted against, and 11 (including mistreatment of the Palestinians. In to- Britain) abstained. Palestinian spokes- tal, 14 countries boycotted the meeting man Ghassan Khatib called (10/31) the (Australia, Austria, Britain, Bulgaria, decision “especially important because Canada, the Czech Republic, France, part of our battle with the Israeli oc- Germany, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, cupation” involves defining history and New Zealand, Poland, the U.S.), charg- heritage. ing that WCAR meetings have promoted According to the U.S. government, racism, intolerance, anti-Semitism, and existing legislation (passed 1990, 1994) Holocaust denial and have eroded free- required the U.S. (which contributes dom of speech and Israel’s right to ex- 22% of UNESCO’s budget) to cut off all ist. The same countries, excluding contributions to UNESCO (dues and Austria, Britain, Bulgaria, and France, voluntary contributions) if the Pales- had previously boycotted the Durban 2 tinians were given full membership in conference in 2009. the organization without possibility of a presidential waiver. In the run-up Other to UNESCO’s 10/5 meeting, U.S. Secy. of State Clinton charged special envoy The Russell Tribunal on Palestine, Hale to urge the Palestinians and Arab an “international people’s tribunal” cre- states not to pursue UNESCO member- ated by activists to promote peace and ship so as to avoid a financing crisis for justice in the Middle East and funded by the organization; failing that, Hale was the Bertrand Russell Peace Foundation, to press for a delay in the vote at the convened (11/5–7) its 3d session in Cape least until 1/2012 to enable the U.S. le- Town, South Africa, to examine whether gally to send UNESCO the $60 m. pay- Israel’s rule over Palestinians constitutes ment scheduled for 11/2011.The pleas apartheid under international law (de- were rebuffed. After the 10/31 vote, the fined as “inhuman acts committed for U.S., Canada, and Israel immediately cut the purpose of establishing and main- off aid totaling more than a quarter of taining domination by one racial group UNESCO’s budget. On 11/10, UNESCO of persons over any other racial group suspended all new projects through the of persons and systematically oppress- end of 2011 for lack of funds. ing them”). More than 20 legal experts Palestinian envoy to the UN in Ge- and witnesses from around the world neva, Ibrahim Khraishi, said (11/1) that addressed the tribunal jurists (including in light of the landslide UNESCO vote, such figures as chairman of the former the Palestinians were examining the UN Commission on Human Rights John possibility of seeking full membership Dugard, Nobel Prize winner Mairead in the other 16 UN agencies and other Corrigan Maguire, and Archbishop Des- international organizations within the mond Tutu), detailing Israeli policies next few weeks, starting with the World toward the Palestinians and the legal Heath Organization. While reiterating consequences of those policies. The Is- support for Palestinian statehood, UN raeli government was invited to partici- Secy.-Gen. Ban Ki-Moon warned (11/3) pate but declined. The jurists concluded the Palestinians that further efforts to that Israeli practices (including military

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rule of the occupied territories and dis- that hamper private sector growth and criminatory laws governing Palestinians development and stifle the PA’s transi- inside Israel) do constitute apartheid tion to self-reliance. The reports noted and persecution and might constitute that the Gaza economy, though still crimes against humanity under interna- weak overall, improved markedly as a tional law. The jurists urged that appro- result of Israel easing construction bans: priate international bodies undertake for the first half of 2011, the economy formal investigations. The tribunal’s first grew 28% and unemployment fell from session was held 3/2010 in Barcelona 39.3% to 25.6%. Israel’s Dep. FM Danny and its 2d session in 11/2010 in London; Ayalon, addressing the AHLC, warned the next session was set for late 2012. that future Israeli economic assistance Of note: Reacting to the upcoming and cooperation “could be severely and Russell Tribunal meeting, South African irreparably compromised” if the Pales- judge Richard Goldstone, who led the tinians pursued their statehood bid at UN fact-finding mission on Operation the UN, urging donors to use their eco- Cast Lead and later repudiated some of nomic leverage with the PA “to turn the his findings, published (11/1) an op- Palestinian leadership away from con- ed in the New York Times stating that frontational and provocative unilateral equating Israel’s treatment of the Pal- steps and lead them back to the negoti- estinians to apartheid was “unfair and ating table.” inaccurate slander” intended only “to The donors’ Local Development Fo- isolate, demonize, and delegitimize” the rum (the main donor body dealing with Jewish state (see Doc. A3). day-to-day affairs in the territories) held a regular meeting on 9/8 to discuss the PA’s reform and development priorities DONORS and budget issues. Of the 4 main donor “strategy groups” (SGs), only the eco- The Ad Hoc Liaison Comm. (AHLC) nomic policy SG met on 9/8. The social met on 9/18 in New York on the side- development and humanitarian assis- lines of the UNGA session and reaf- tance SG, infrastructure SG, and gov- firmed its 4/2011 assessment (see ernance and reform SG did not meet. Quarterly Update in JPS 160) that the Various SG subcommittees also held PA’s institutions are operating “above the regular follow-up meetings. These in- threshold” needed to run a state. While cluded the economic SG’s fiscal sector stressing the PA’s “fiscal sustainability working group (SWG; 9/8) and private and economic viability,” reports submit- sector development and trade SWG ted by the IMF and World Bank warned (10/12); the governance SG’s judicial re- that the Palestinian economy, after 3 form SWG (10/10); the infrastructure consecutive years of 8% annual growth, SG’s environmental SWG (10/11) and was facing a major financial crisis water and sanitation SWG (10/6); and caused by Arab donors’ failure to follow the social and humanitarian assistance through on pledges and Israel’s refusal SG’s humanitarian task force (10/6) and to further ease restrictions on movement education SWG (10/12).

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