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Sumi TRUST Monthly Commentary March 2015

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Sumi TRUST Monthly Commentary March 2015 SuMi TRUST Monthly Commentary March 2015 Key Points 1. Japanese Economy: Increasing Tourism Though there are many that remain skeptical about the Japanese Stock Market, few can doubt the impact of overseas tourists on Japan. Weak domestic demand is being offset by increased consumption by visitors to Japan, particularly from Asian countries, and giving a boost to the economy. 2. Stock of The Month: Bic Camera (3048) One of the biggest beneficiaries of increased tourism is Japan’s second largest electronics retailer Bic Camera (3048). With many stores ideally located in tourist hot spots, and with activities aimed at supporting tourists, Bic Camera is our stock of the month. 3. Market Review and Outlook The Nikkei 225 climbed to 18,797 (+6.36% MoM) by the end of February, driven by massive purchases from public pension funds. As these large public pension funds continue to shift their asset allocation from bonds to equities, what can investors expect to see from the equity market? Cover 1. Japanese Economy: Increasing Tourism With more than 13 million tourists visiting Japan last year, few would doubt that shopping and sightseeing in Japan is a major draw for overseas visitors. When I stopped by a department store in Ginza after work recently, on the ground floor where the cosmetics are located overseas tourists outnumbered Japanese shoppers. Japan’s GDP growth in 4Q 2014 was +2.2% (QoQ) and while Japan is now technically out of recession there is still drag from the consumption tax hike. However, Japan has avoided a repeat of the full-scale recession it experienced in the mid-1990’s when it raised the consumption tax from 3% to 5%. Even though domestic demand remains weak, we are witnessing the positive effects of a weaker Yen in the form of foreign tourist receipts. According to the Japan Department Store Association, monthly duty-free sales for the months of Dec. 2014 and Jan. 2015 reached JPY 12 billion, and thanks to the Chinese New Year, Feb. 2015 may have recorded an all-time high. The media often broadcast scenes of large crowds of Asian tourists shopping at department stores such as Isetan, Mitsukoshi, Takashimaya, Daimaru and Matsuya, and it is not only department stores but also drugstores and electronics stores that are feeling the benefits. Figure 1: Foreign Tourists coming to Japan Figure 2: Duty-Free Sales at Department Stores (JPY billion) (million people) 14 20 12 15 10 8 10 6 5 4 2 0 0 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 Source: Japan National Tourism Organization, SuMi TRUST Source: Japan Department Store Association, SuMi TRUST There are three major reasons why numbers of foreign tourists to Japan are increasing: 1) The end of the strong Yen era: the Yen has fallen 50% from its peak in 2012; 2) The relaxation of visa requirements: the Japanese government relaxed visa requirements for people from Thailand and Malaysia in 2013 and for Indonesians, Filipino’s and Vietnamese in 2014; 3) The expansion of international flights: international flights have increased from 2,296 per week in 2003, to 3,477 in 2013. Haneda Airport is now a busy international airport, whereas until 2010 it had been a domestic hub. The Third Arrow of Abenomics set a target of 20 million tourists by 2020 and the opening of the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games. Assuming that the current exchange rate is maintained, and using the rate of incoming Asian tourists today, we believe that we may see 25 million tourists visiting Japan in 2020. Hence, spending by foreign tourists is expected to keep growing. For those curious about sightseeing in Japan, the most popular sightseeing route goes from Tokyo to Kyoto/Osaka via Mt. Fuji. Cherry blossoms tours in the spring are also very popular. Niseko, a ski resort in Hokkaido, is popular with tourists from Australia, and the Tateyama-Kurobe Alpine route is popular among tourists from Taiwan and Hong Kong. Figure 3: Top 10 Tourist Destination and Japan Figure 4: International Flights per week to/from Japan (million people) (flights/ week) 0 20 40 60 80 100 4,000 France US 3,500 China Spain Italy 3,000 Turkey Germany 2,500 UK Russia Malaysia 2,000 Japan 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: Japan National Tourism Organization, SuMi TRUST Source: Japan National Tourism Organization, SuMi TRUST 1 2. Stock of The Month: Bic Camera (3048) Bic Camera (3048) has been responding aggressively to demands from foreign tourists, and here at SuMi Trust we are keeping a close eye on this company and its growth projections. Company Overview Bic Camera (3048) is the second largest electronics retailer in Japan after Yamada Denki (9831). They started their business in 1978, and opened their Ikebukuro store in 1980 before launching Bic Camera branches in Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Sapporo and Nagoya. As of August 2014, they have 37 stores, of which 31 are located at major traffic points. Their retail chain exceeds 220 shops if their subsidiaries Kojima (7513) and Sofmap Co. are included. Furthermore, they are investing heavily in their online business which has reached JPY 68 billion in sales, or 8% of total sales. JPY 100 billion in sales is well within the scope of their online business in the near future. Shopping fever of the Japanese people and Foreign Tourists Foreign tourists have become more conspicuous at department stores, and duty-free sales also reflect this trend. After the consumption tax hike in April 2014, total sales at department stores fell for 10 straight months, and in January 2015, total sales were JPY 542 billion, down 2.8% YoY. However, duty-free sales increased from JPY 2 billion per month in 2012 to JPY 12 billion in January 2015. The trigger was the expansion of duty-free coverage; since October 2014, food and daily necessities have been included as duty-free goods. Department stores have also been eager to promote women’s clothing, but sales are still very weak and growth has been negative as Japanese enthusiasm for consumption remains low while the country waits to see if wages are increased in the spring. Spending by foreign tourists at department stores is now equivalent to about 2% of total sales. If this can be doubled, it can fill the consumption void created by the tax hike. Big Camera and Foreign Tourists Today, we see Chinese and other foreign tourists shopping mainly in Tokyo (Ginza, Shinjuku, Shibuya), Osaka, Sapporo, and Fukuoka. Bic Camera is strategically situated to attract the business of these consumers. For example, the flag-ship Yurakucho store is just 5 minutes walking distance from Ginza and the number of foreign tourists visiting this shop are steadily increasing. The rich product line-up at Bic Camera has attracted tourists with a variety of demands and Bic Camera targets visitors, providing free Wi-Fi access, multi-language information and advertising, and hiring Asian language speakers as store staff. We believe that this has created upside potential. Duty-free sales in Sept.-Nov. 2014 constituted 5.5% of Bic Camera’s total sales when it was 2.4% just one year ago. From this increase we can see there is real momentum. FY2015 Consolidated operating profits for Bic Camera from Sept. 2013 to Aug. 2014 were JPY 19 billion (+46% YoY). The company conservatively estimates operating profits of JPY 20 billion (+7.6% YoY) for the period of Sept. 2014 to Aug. 2015. This growth is driven by an increase in duty-free sales, online sales, synergy with Kojima, and improved logistical efficiency through system integration. Photo: Bic Camera, Yurakucho shop Figure: Business Outlook (consolidated account) (JPY billion) (JPY billion) 900 25 800 700 20 600 15 500 400 10 300 200 5 100 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Photo is provided by Bic Camera Sales (lhs) Operating Profits (rhs) Source: Bic Camera, SuMi TRUST 2 3. Market Review and Outlook Table 1: Global Equity Market Performance “There is no dip if you wait for it” is a proverb used in the (as of 27th February 2015) Japanese equity market. February market developments embodied this phrase. The Nikkei 225 climbed to 18,797 Country Index YTD QTD Feb (+6.36% MoM) by the end of February, driven by massive purchases from public pension funds. The Civil Servant’s USD 8.1% 8.1% 5.8% Public Pension Fund announced a cut last week in Yen bond TOPIX allocations from 74% to 35%, and an increase in both JPY 8.3% 8.3% 7.7% Japanese and foreign equities to 25% each from 8%. Japan Furthermore, the Government Pension Investment Fund USD 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% (GPIF) revealed that they had invested JPY 2 trillion (USD 16 MSCI Japan billion) in Japanese equities during 4Q 2014. As you can see, JPY 8.2% 8.2% 7.9% public pension funds are keen to shift their portfolio from a deflation oriented model to one of inflation. U.S. S&P500 USD 2.2% 1.2% 5.5% According to the Tokyo Stock Exchange, purchases by trust USD 5.3% 5.8% 6.1% banks managing passive funds for pensions, reached JPY Europe FTSE Eurofirst 300 220 billion during the first 3 weeks of February. Overseas EUR 14.2% 14.7% 6.7% investors sold JPY 240 billion in the first week but were net MSCI AC Asia buyers during the second week. Their net sales were JPY 82 Asia USD 4.3% 4.8% 1.8% billion during the same period. The BOJ was relatively quiet (ex.
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