Somali Quagmire

VIEWS AND ANALYSES FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT ISSUE 9 • 2010 the african.orgwww.the-african.org • THE ALTERNATE-MONTHLY MAGAZINE OF THE INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES African troops and the Somali quagmire SA’S WHAT ZIM KUFUOR: SECRECY CAN LEARN We didn’t BILL FROM SELL OFF KENYA OUR OIL Angola K500 • Botswana P20.00 • Côte D’Ivoire Cfa3 000 • Democratic Republic of the Congo Cfa3 000 • Ethiopia B20.00 Gambia D50.00 • Ghana C4.00 • Kenya Sh300.00 • Malawi K5 000 • Mozambique R29.00 Namibia $29.00 • Nigeria N500.00 • Tanzania Sh7 000 • Uganda Sh7 000 • Zambia K15 000 • Zimbabwe R29.00 South Africa R29.00 (incl VAT) • UK £4.00 • US $6.00 • Europe €6.95 OFC_TheAfrican9.indd 1 2010/09/21 1:43 PM guest editorial Dear Reader... This issue of The African.org focuses to particular groups are malleable – Terrorism in Africa is obviously on Somalia, where up to 600 foreign like ethnic identity and tribe, they can affected by events elsewhere. Modern terrorists are reportedly active, trying change over time. Latent allegiances terrorism is fi rstly rooted in the search to capitalise on the dire situation in that have often been mobilised by for meaning and explanation of shattered country. Their intention is demagogues such as Hitler and Stalin, the relentless and grinding poverty clear. As the United States retreats from with tragic consequences. This has that ordinary Africans experience in Iraq and, shortly, Afghanistan, these been particularly evident in Africa their daily lives – a phenomenon not foreign combatants intend to open up where the Hutu/Tutsi divide formalised dissimilar to the massive (but generally another front to draw in and bleed the by Germany and then Belgium unreported) incidence of Hindutva West. In doing so they are tapping into during colonisation would explode in terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism and a deep sense of deprivation in Somalia, repeated mass murder and eventually Naxalite radical insurgency in India. where divisions between a small, super- genocide in Rwanda generations As of 2006, at least 232 of India’s 608 rich elite and the impoverished masses later. In neighbouring Kenya, ethnic districts were affl icted, with differing are evident, and where clashes along mobilisation by successive post- intensities, by various insurgent religious lines are running deeper than liberation leaders has turned brother and terrorist movements. In August elsewhere. against brother in clashes that are now 2008, National Security Adviser M K Today’s world is clearly one of also increasingly violent. Narayanan noted that as many as 800 greater awareness of the divisions Africa is a hugely complex continent terrorist cells operated in the country. between rich and poor, between with hundreds of languages, cultures Much of this confl ict goes unreported the West and the rest, and between and customs that have lived side by as global reporting focuses on India’s Christianity and Islam. Intolerance, side for centuries. It is also increasingly rising economic and political power and mostly by fearful Christians, is on the divided along religious lines. In sharp not – as is the case with Africa – on its rise, and this is most evident in the contrast to most other regions, very massive internal violence and instability. US, the most religious (and powerful) few people are religiously unaffi liated Former US Senator Tip O’Neill once of the industrialised countries. These and, according to a global study by famously said that all politics is local. tensions are rising at a time when the the Washington-based Pew Research Indeed, so is all terrorism. Yet events world is more interconnected than ever Centre on Islam and Christianity in in Somalia, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and where events in one part could Sub-Saharan Africa, religion is ‘very India and elsewhere share a common have huge repercussions elsewhere. In important’ in the lives of roughly 9 in 10 origin. Africans, Indians, Somali and Gainesville, Florida, only tremendous Africans. Afghans turn to radicalisation and pressure temporarily dissuaded Pastor And Africa is becoming more bigoted violent response as a reaction Terry Jones, author of a book entitled religious every day. Samuel to their personal circumstances and the Islam is the Devil, from burning copies Huntington’s bogy of confl ict between destitution they view daily in contrast of the Koran to commemorate the civilizations could well gain religious to the opulence transmitted in real time events of 9/11. In avowedly liberal New salience in Africa along the through the internet, smart phones and York, demonstrators chant and protest 4 000-mile swathe of land, from Somalia in the printed media of the ‘other world’. against plans to build an Islamic cultural in the east to Senegal in the west, where Globalisation is driving radicalisation, centre near Ground Zero where the twin these great faiths meet. This volatile and Africa, the poorest continent with towers of the World Trade Centre once religious fault line has seen repeated the highest population-growth rates, stood. Commentators are left shaking attacks on US embassies and Jewish has much to lose if our leadership do their heads at the extent to which the targets in Uganda and Kenya in the not place development and the interests American cultural and racial melting pot east, battles between the security forces of our peoples fi rst. has become as divided as old Europe is of Mali and Algeria with al-Qaeda’s accused of being. movement in the Maghreb in the west, Culture and our sense of belonging and the rise of Boko Haram in Nigeria. Jakkie Cilliers www.the-african.org October/November 2010 1 contents Strap text under strap In this issue 8 18 5 Upcoming events Climate Change, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso 6 Newswatch Benin, Guinea Bissau, ICC 11 7 Letters 8 Cover feature: Somalia Background to the crisis 11 Somalia To intervene or not? 15 Somalia Who are al-Shabaab? 18 Constitution-making Kenya’s lessons for Zimbabwe 22 50 Years of Independence Opposition parties 26 Governance Stolen Assets 2 credits Strap text under strap Publishers: Mail & Guardian Media, Grosvenor Corner, 195 Jan Smuts Ave, Rosebank, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa Tel: +27 11 250 7300 Fax: +27 11 250 7502 Editor 28 47 Liesl Louw-Vaudran Managing Editor Keto Segwai Editorial Board Paul-Simon Handy Wafula Okumu Hennie van Vuuren Issaka Souare Cheryl Hendriks Poppie Mputhing Abeba Amene Sandra Adong Oder Lansana Gberie Copy Editor Sasha Evans 28 Interview 47 South Africa Content Manager: Editorial John Kufuor The Secrecy Law Ben Kelly Production Manager Trudy-Lee Rutkowski 32 Technology 50 South Africa Design Truly Kenyan innovations Crime and the World Cup Colleen Mulrooney Head of Sales Zimbabwe Letter from Addis Adriana Botha 34 52 Publisher for M&G Media Politics of powersharing The Kampala AU summit Anastacia Martin Cover image 36 Business 53 Opinion REUTERS/Feisal Omar Mining diamonds in The Kosovo ruling Zimbabwe 57 Books interview Institute for Security Studies: Business Irene Sabatini Block C, Brooklyn Court, 38 Veale Street, Undersea Cables New Muckleneuk, Pretoria/Tshwane 0181 59 Book review Tel: +27-12-346-9500/2 40 Feature: Climate Rwanda genocide: international Change responsibility Copyright: M&G Media Ltd and the-african. org. No part of this magazine may be Looking at Lesotho’s water reproduced in any form without written consent 60 Book review of the publishers. Greg Mills on development Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are the 43 Climate Change responsibility of the authors and not those of Niger Delta under stress The Institute of Security Studies, its Council, Trustees, any funder or sponsor of the ISS or 62 Pictures M&G Media Ltd. 46 Climate Change Best of Mali Advice to the AU SUBSCRIPTIONS AND DISTRIBUTION Liesl Louw-Vaudran 64 Last word E-mail: [email protected] When ruling parties split Tel: 012 346 9500 www.the-african.org October/November 2010 ISSUE 8 • 2010 VIEWS AND ANALYSES FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT Our the • THE ALTERNATE-MONTHLY MAGAZINE OF THE INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES african.orgwww.the-african.org contributors Rwanda: Dr Wafula Okumu is a Research Fellow Kagame’s zero with the ISS’s African Conflict Prevention tolerance Programme. He argues that although Kenya successfully instituted a new constitution recently, it came at a high price. Despite this, however, he posits that other African countries, particularly Zimbabwe, can learn something from the Kenyan power-sharing and constitution- A G5 club making processes. for Africa? CAN GOODLUCK’S LIBERATION MOVEMENTS BEST SPENDING Steve Song is a Telecommunication GOVERN? WORLD CUP SPREE Fellow at the Shuttleworth Foundation PICTURES in South Africa. He highlights trends and Angola K500 • Botswana P20.00 • Côte D’Ivoire Cfa3 000 • Democratic Republic of the Congo Cfa3 000 • Ethiopia B20.00 Gambia D50.00 • Ghana C4.00 • Kenya Sh300.00 • Malawi K5 000 • Mozambique R29.00 • UK £4.00 • US $6.00 • Europe €6.95 (incl VAT) issues underlying the incredible growth Namibia $29.00 • NigeriaSouth N500.00 Africa •R29.00 Tanzania Sh7 000 • Uganda Sh7 000 • Zambia K15 000 • Zimbabwe R29.00 2010/07/28 12:30 PM of the undersea-cable initiatives currently underway in Africa. The ongoing OFC_TheAfrican8.indd 1 initiatives are expected to deliver more than 20 terabits/second to sub-Saharan Africa within two years. The-african.org is distributed by agents in: Dr Judy Smith-Höhn is a Senior South Africa Researcher in the ISS’s African Conflict Prevention Programme. In addition to Kenya assessing the situation on the ground Zimbabwe in Zimbabwe, she articulates the Botswana prerequisites needed for staging a credible Zambia election in 2011. She concludes that the Ghana environment is not conducive as yet. Richard Cornwell of Cornwell and To advertise contact Associates, is an independent analyst Racquel Oliphant who has previously worked as a senior M&G Media research fellow at the ISS’s African Grosvenor Corner • 195 Jan Smuts Ave Security Analysis Programme.

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