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Annual and Monthly Runoff Analysis in the Elqui River, Chile, a Semi-Arid Snow-Glacier Fed Basin

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Annual and Monthly Runoff Analysis in the Elqui River, Chile, a Semi-Arid Snow-Glacier Fed Basin Annual and monthly runoff analysis in the Elqui River, Chile, a semi-arid snow-glacier fed basin • Francisco Balocchi • University of Arizona, Tucson, USA / Instituto Forestal, Santiago, Chile / Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile • Roberto Pizarro* • Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile *Corresponding autor • Thomas Meixner • University of Arizona, Tucson, USA • Fernando Urbina • Dirección General de Aguas, Iquique, Chile DOI: 10.24850/j-tyca-2017-06-02 Abstract Resumen Balocchi, F., Pizarro, R., Meixner, T., & Urbina, F. (November- Balocchi, F., Pizarro, R., Meixner, T., & Urbina, F. (noviembre- December, 2017). Annual and monthly runoff analysis in diciembre, 2017). Análisis de la escorrentía anual y mensual the Elqui River, Chile, a semi-arid snow-glacier fed basin. en el río Elqui, Chile, una cuenca semi árida de régimen 23 Water Technology and Sciences (in Spanish), 8(6), 23-35, DOI: nivoglaciar. Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua, 8(6), 23-35, DOI: 10.24850/j-tyca-2017-06-02. 10.24850/j-tyca-2017-06-02. Climate change and its relationship to temperature are El cambio climático y su relación con la temperatura es un factor critical factors affecting glaciers, especially when populations crítico que afecta a los glaciares, especialmente cuando la población depend on these ice reservoirs. The use of the precipitation- depende de las reservas de hielo. Usando la relación precipitación- runoff coefficient in semi-arid, mountainous regions that escorrentía en regiones montañosas semiáridas alimentadas por are fed by glaciers can lead to important findings about glaciares se pueden llevar a cabo importantes descubrimientos sobre how glacial melt responds to climate change. This study cómo el derretimiento glaciar responde al cambio climático. En este analyzed 40 years of monthly and annual precipitation estudio se analizaron 40 años (1970-2009) de datos de precipitación and runoff data (1970-2009) from four sub-basins of the y escorrentía mensual y anual en cuatro subcuencas del río Elqui Elqui River (29° 27’- 30° 34’ S and 71° 22’- 69° 52’ W), in (29° 27’- 30° 34’ S y 71° 22’- 69° 52’ O) en la región de Coquimbo, the Coquimbo region of Chile. The Elqui basin has a rain- Chile. La cuenca del Elqui posee un régimen pluvionivoglaciar. snow-glacial melt regime. The areal average rainfall was La precipitación areal promedio se estimó usando el método de estimated using the Thiessen polygon method. Gumbel polígonos de Thiessen. Se utilizaron las funciones de distribución and Goodrich probability distribution functions and the de probabilidad de Gumbel, Goodrich y Log-Normal, con el fin de Log-Normal Probability Density Function (PDF) were used entender el comportamiento temporal de ambas variables. También to understand the temporal behavior of precipitation and se analizaron la variación temporal y el coeficiente PP Q-1. El test streamflow. The data-time behavior and PP Q-1 coefficients Mann-Kendall (MK) se empleó para comparar los resultados; no were also analyzed. And the Mann-Kendall (MK) test was se encontraron tendencias para el caudal, pero sí una tendencia used to compare the results. No trends were found for flow, negativa en las precipitaciones. Vale la pena destacar los caudales while a negative trend in rainfall was identified. The summer de verano, los cuales se mantuvieron constantes. A pesar de las flows were notable, which remained constant. In spite of the diferencias entre el coeficiente PP Q-1 y el test de MK, es claro que differences between the PP Q-1 coefficient and the MK test, el caudal no proviene de las precipitaciones sino del fenómeno de the flow clearly does not come from rainfall but rather from derretimiento nivoglaciar. glacial melt. Palabras clave: derretimiento glacial, Mann-Kendall, coeficiente Keywords: Glacial melt, Mann-Kendall, precipitation and precipitación-caudal, cuenca glaciar, distribución de Gumbel, flow coefficient, glacier-fed basin, Gumbel distribution, tendencias de precipitación y caudal. rainfall and flow trend. Received: 01/12/2016 Accepted: 20/06/2017 ISSN 0187-8336 Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua, vol. VIII, núm. 6, noviembre-diciembre de 2017, pp. 23-35 Balocchi et al., Annual and monthly runoff analysis in the Elqui River, Chile, a semi-arid snow-glacier fed basin Introduction isotherm (ZDI). The ZDI is being modified by global warming (Valdes-Pineda et al., 2014), In arid and semiarid mountain regions, the because the air is warmer. Moreover, the same cryosphere is the principal water supply and study showed that the ZDI line has been ris- the most vulnerable to climate change as the ice ing since the 1980 ́s at a rate of almost 2.5 m is a source of natural storage during the summer every ten years, denoting a quick change in the and/or dry season (Karimi, Farajzadeh, Morid- environment. In the same context, Carrasco, nejad, & Namdari, 2014; Milana & Maturano, Casassa and Quintana (2005), and Carrasco, 1999; Rabatel et al., 2008). In fact, rock glaciers Osorio and Casassa (2008) had studied the ZDI are essential for hydrologic sources because in Chile and they have concluded an increase in they have more water than glaciers that retain the ZDI in the wake of increasing temperature. frozen water between 29°S and 32°S (Azócar Demaria, Maurer, Thrasher, Vicuña and Meza & Brenning, 2010). Moreover, the principal (2013) forecasted in the future with mathemati- water provider to streamflow in mountainous cal modelling that the precipitation in Chile regions is the snowmelt process (Favier, Falvey, may drop between 7-20%, i.e. less snow and Rabatel, Praderio, & López, 2009). However, less streamflow. during a drought, glaciers and permafrost can Some studies have related hydroclimatic be the main source to summer streamflow and factors such as runoff and/or precipitation to aquifer recharge (Favier et al., 2009; Milana & glacier-fed river flows (Baraeret al., 2012; Birsan, 24 Güell, 2008). Molnar, Burlando, & Pfaundler, 2005; Kong & In this context, several studies have shown Pang, 2014; Liu, Wang, Gong, & Uygen, 2012; glacier retreat in the previous decades (Bolch, Pellicciotti, Bauder, & Parola, 2010; Sharif, 2007; Le Quesne, Acuña, Boninsegna, Rivera, Archer, Fowler, & Forsythe, 2013; Souvignet, & Barichivich, 2009; Rivera, Acuña, Casassa, Oyarzún, Verbist, Gaese, & Heinrich, 2012; & Bown, 2002). This phenomenon results in Jiang, Zhou, & Cheng, 2007; Yao et al., 2014;). increasing runoff and a reduction of water infil- Moreover, these studies have a common factor tration. Hence, glacier melt studies are essential in the methodology; all have used the Mann- in water resources research (Rignot, Rivera, & Kendall trend test (MK). For example, Birsan et 5 3 - Casassa, 2003; Rivera, Casassa, Acuna, & Lange, al. (2005) analyzed 48 watersheds in Switzerland 3 2 . and found a positive trend in annual streamflow. p 2000). In fact, glacier and permafrost meltwater p , 7 input to streamflow is little researched and of- Yao et al. (2014) discovered an important glacial 1 0 2 ten misunderstood (Pourrier, Jourde, Kinnard, retreat in the Yangtze River in China and that e d e just less than 20% of rainfall was transformed r Gascoin, & Monnier, 2014). Even more, Rabatel, b m into runoff in the study basin. Despite the dif- e Castebrunet, Favier, Nicholson and Kinnard i c i d (2011) mentioned that models and mass balance ferent objectives and data used in these studies, - e r b studies, which explain runoff patterns, do not all of them concluded that mountainous basins m e i v exist for sub-tropical region. are one of the most sensitive places to climate o n , On the other hand, runoff and snowpack change and especially sensitive are basins with 6 . m are highly affected by precipitation changes glaciers. Moreover and related with the glacier ú n , I response to the meteorological data, Yamaguchi I (Yao, Liu, Huang, Liu, & Wu, 2014). Likewise, I V . and Fujita (2013) found that in general the gla- l and in the presence of climate change, it would o v , be expected that in the absence of changes in ciers depend mostly on the precipitation pattern a u g A precipitation and with increasing temperature such as seasonality and amount. l e d Souvignet et al. (2012) studied the meteoro- s (Pizarro et al., 2013; Valdés-Pineda et al., 2014) a i c n runoff should have increased in the last sev- logical trend in northern Chile and they found e i C y eral decades. Another factor that should affect a positive trend in summer temperature at high a í g altitudes, a related with a decrease in rainfall o the snowpack and glacier is the zero degree l o n c e T • ISSN 0187-8336 Balocchi et al., Annual and monthly runoff analysis in the Elqui River, Chile, a semi-arid snow-glacier fed basin in a long-term analysis the higher temperatures level). It has an area of 3.6 km2, which represents could explain glacial retreat within the study an important part of the entire area covered by zone. glaciers in the region (Oyarzun, 1987; Rivera et Other researchers have studied the contri- al., 2000). butions of glacier melt into the streamflow, for The Elqui River watershed, located in the example, Hirose and Marshall (2013) in British Coquimbo Region, lies near latitudes 29° 02’ S Columbia, Howat, Tulaczyk, Rhodes, Isreal and and 32° 34’ S and longitudes 71° 22’ W and Snyder (2006) in California, Singh and Kumar 69° 52’ W (figure 1). It has an area of 9 656 Km2 (1997) on the Himalayas, Ye et al. (2005) in and has a mixed hydrologic regimen (snow and China, among others. precipitation). However, according to Young et A severe water availability gap affects al. (2010), the principal water sources to the northern Chile, but Chile is considered one of Elqui river streamflow are snowmelt and glacier the Latin American countries with the highest melt.
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