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Embracer Group Fast Comment Equity Research – 18 August 2021 07:48 CET Embracer Group Fast comment Beat & ~15% organic growth in tough quarter Company-sponsored research: Not rated Q1 adj. EBIT SEK 1,271m, +12% vs. ABG, +5% vs. cons Share price (SEK) 16/08/2021 184.1 Prel. consensus 21/22e adj. EBIT estimate up ~10% IT, Sweden Webcast call today at 09:00 CET EMBRACB.ST/EMBRACB ST Q1’21/22 details and 21/22e outlook MCap (SEKm) 90,428 Embracer delivered a strong quarter today, which beat Infront consensus MCap (EURm) 8,867 expectations, with an adj. EBIT of SEK 1,271m, +12% vs. ABGSCe and Net debt (EURm) -1,182 +5% vs. consensus. Revenues were SEK 3,427m, 6% vs. ABGSCe and +3% vs. consensus, for a total y-o-y growth of 65.6%. However, when we No. of shares (m) 491 adjust for M&A and FX we reach an organic growth of ~15% on a group Free float (%) 60 level (ABGSCe was at 19.5% before the report). We consider this a Av. daily volume (k) 4,634 strong performance given the COVID-19 boosted comparables from last year and compared to many gaming peers which have been struggling Next event Q1 report: 18 Aug for organic growth in this quarter. Games represented 86.4% of total revenues as Gearbox, Easybrain and Aspyr are now fully consolidated, which drove a large uptick in the gross margin, which came in at 76.3%, +16.4pp vs. ABGSCe and +10.4pp vs. consensus, up from 59.9% in Q4’20/21. Ultimately adj. EPS was SEK 2.30 per share, growing 53.7% y-o-y. Management reiterates the previously highlighted current FY pipeline of new games with a development cost of SEK 2.9-3.3bn. The releases will scale up over the remaining three quarters, Q2’21/22e will feature new game releases with a development cost of SEK 225-275m, and Q4 will features the strongest lineup. Potential consensus estimate changes We could see consensus 21/22e adj. EBIT estimates come up at least ~10% on the back of the report and the newly displayed gross margin. Final thoughts Embracer’s share is down ~3% YTD, following a change in investor sentiment in regard to gaming companies. As such, Embracer is now trading at a 21/22e EV/adj. EBIT of 13x on our estimates, which is ~30% below the five-year historical average. This is despite Embracer having a new game pipeline with a SEK 2.9-3.3bn development cost (~4x last year) which we think will drive ~30% organic growth in a year where peers are struggling for growth and plenty of M&A headroom (SEK +20bn). There is a webcast at 09:00 CET, link: https://tv.streamfabriken.com/embracer-group-q1-2021 Analyst(s): [email protected], +46 8 566 286 13 [email protected], +46 8 566 286 37 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. Embracer Group Analyst Q1’21/22 deviations vs. ABGSCe vs. Infront consensus Deviation to estimates (SEKm) Actual Actual ABGSC Deviation Consensus Deviation Net sales Q1'20/21 Q1'21/22 Q1'21/22e SEKm % Q1'21/22e SEKm % Games - THQ Nordic 488 669 636 32.7 5.1% 684 -15 -2.2% Games - Deep Silver 613 638 521 116.6 22.4% 516 122 23.6% Games - Coffee Stain 173 191 224 -33.3 -14.9% 253 -62 -24.6% Games - Saber Interactive 349 305 308 -3.1 -1.0% 384 -79 -20.6% Games - DECA Games 146 175 -29.4 -16.8% 170 -24 -14.4% Games - Gearbox 437 311 126.0 40.5% 336 101 30.1% Games - Easybrain 576 453 123.4 27.2% 453 123 27.2% Games Total 1,622 2,961 2,628 332.9 12.7% 2,796 165 5.9% Partner Publishing/Film 447 466 621 -155.3 -25.0% 550 -84 -15.3% Group 2,069 3,427 3,249 177.6 5.5% 3,324 103 3.1% COGS -760 -813 -1,305 492.0 - Gross profit 1,309 2,614 1,944 669.6 34.4% 2,191 423 19.3% Operating costs -656 -1,639 -1,122 -517.2 - EBITDA 965 1,532 1,466 66.7 4.6% 1,541 -9 -0.6% Depreciation & amortization -746 -2,057 -2,214 157.5 - Adj. EBIT 712 1,271 1,137 134.7 11.9% 1,217 54 4.5% EBIT 219 -524 -748 224.2 - -445 -79 - Net financials -36 101 -6 107.4 - Taxes -93 -183 -189 5.6 n.a. Adj. Net profit 560 1,143 915 228.4 25.0% Net profit 90 -606 -943 337.2 - EPS Adj. (SEK) 1.50 2.31 1.87 0.44 23.4% 2.04 0.27 13.2% EPS Basic (SEK) 0.24 -1.22 -1.93 0.7 - -1.14 -0.1 - Net sales grow th y-o-y Q1'20/21 Q1'21/22 Q1'21/22 Percentage point Q1'21/22e Percentage point Games - THQ Nordic 163.7% 37.1% 30.4% 6.7 pp 40.2% -3.1 pp Games - Deep Silver 64.3% 4.1% -15.0% 19.0 pp -15.8% 19.8 pp Games - Coffee Stain 107.8% 10.6% 29.9% -19.3 pp 46.7% -36.1 pp Games - Saber Interactive n.a. -12.7% -11.8% n.a. 46.7% n.a. Games - DECA Games n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Games Total 153.1% 82.5% 62.0% 20.5 pp 72.4% 10.2 pp Partner Publishing/Film -10.9% 4.3% 39.1% -34.8 pp 23.2% -18.9 pp Group 81.1% 65.6% 57.1% 8.6 pp 60.7% 5.0 pp Organic 50.6% 15.0% 19.5% -4.5 pp Margins Q1'20/21 Q1'21/22 Q1'21/22 Percentage point Q1'21/22e Percentage point Gross margin 63.3% 76.3% 59.8% 16.4 pp 65.9% 10.4 pp EBITDA margin 46.7% 44.7% 45.1% -0.4 pp 46.4% -1.6 pp Adj. EBIT margin 34.4% 37.1% 35.0% 2.1 pp 36.6% 0.5 pp EBIT margin 10.6% -15.3% -23.0% 7.7 pp -13.4% -1.9 pp Adj. Net margin 27.1% 33.4% 28.2% 5.2 pp Net margin 4.4% -17.7% -29.0% 11.3 pp Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Infront, company data 18 August 2021 ABG Sundal Collier 2 Embracer Group SEKm 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e Sales 5,249 9,024 16,900 19,585 21,737 Sales growth (%) -8.8 71.9 87.3 15.9 11.0 EBITDA 1,821 3,985 7,496 8,992 10,021 EBITDA margin (%) 34.7 44.2 44.4 45.9 46.1 EBIT adj 1,032 2,912 5,710 6,672 7,566 EBIT adj margin (%) 19.7 32.3 33.8 34.1 34.8 Pretax profit 408 296 -1,855 -940 -45 EPS rep 0.91 -0.23 -4.84 -2.57 -0.75 EPS growth (%) high -125.1 -2,026.5 46.9 70.9 EPS adj 3.11 6.38 10.51 12.82 14.58 DPS 0 0 0 0 0 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.7 17.9 10.5 8.4 7.1 EV/EBIT adj (x) 20.6 24.5 13.8 11.3 9.4 P/E (x) 78.1 -863.7 -38.0 -71.6 -245.9 P/E adj (x) 22.8 30.8 17.5 14.4 12.6 EV/sales (x) 4.1 7.9 4.7 3.8 3.3 FCF yield (%) -4.0 -3.5 -1.3 4.6 5.1 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 0 0 Net IB debt/EBITDA -0.6 -3.3 -1.6 -1.8 -2.1 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -4.0 -3.5 -1.3 4.6 5.1 Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -0.4 -1.9 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 18 August 2021 ABG Sundal Collier 3 Embracer Group Analyst certification I/We, Jesper Birch-Jensen, Stefan Knutsson, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report. Analyst valuation methods ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.
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