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Canada This Month

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Canada This Month 2019 Election Political Landscape October 8th-10th, 2019 2 Methodology These are the results of an online survey conducted between October 8th to 10th, Unweighted Unweighted Weighted Weighted 2019. (n) (%) (n) (%) This online survey of 2,394 adult Canadians was conducted using INNOVATIVE’s Males 18-34 Canada 20/20 national research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, a 276 11.5% 306 13.9% leading provider of online sample. The results are weighted to n=2,200 based on Census data from Statistics Canada. Males 35-54 368 15.4% 369 16.8% Respondents from the Canada 20/20 Panel and the Lucid constituent panels are Males 55+ 432 18.0% 398 18.1% recruited from a wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region, and language characteristics of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the Females 18-34 360 15.0% 299 13.6% overall sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data to provide results that are intended to approximate a Females 35-54 441 18.4% 380 17.3% probability sample. INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that Females 55+ 517 21.6% 449 20.4% only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire BC 403 16.8% 299 13.6% region. A total of 559 panelists started but did not finish the survey and another 220 Alberta 237 9.9% 251 11.4% panelists were screened out for exceeding age/gender/region quotas. Confidence: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was Prairies 161 6.7% 147 6.7% not a random probability based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to Ontario 913 38.1% 840 38.2% most online panels. Weighting: Results for Canada are weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure Quebec 517 21.6% 513 23.3% that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census data; in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a Atlantic 163 6.8% 149 6.8% probability sample. Weighted and unweighted frequencies are reported in the table. Federal Vote Note: Jan-08 September since early steady Vote: Federal Combined Q Mar-08 People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’. 2018,‘Another in includedsince September hasadded ofbeenCanada Party People’s May-08 n=2,200] respondents; all of [asked slightly? towardlean you do party that which case, In vote for?you wouldparty held which today, election were federal a If Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 May-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Undecided / don't know don't / Undecided Québécois Bloc The Party Conservative The Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 (27%) (31%) and Conservatives Liberals Mar-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Would not vote / none vote not Would Party Green The Party Liberal The Dec-13 May-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 July-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Another party Another Party Democratic New The Mar-17 May-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 [ VOTE + LEAN] + VOTE Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 W1 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 W2 13% 27% 31% 3% 5% 9% 9% 4 Combined Federal Vote by Region: Liberals lead in Ontario and 5 Quebec, while the CPC is ahead in Alberta and the Prairies If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [VOTE + LEAN] Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,200] Total 27% 31% 13% 5% 9% 3%0% 9% 3% BC 24% 29% 21% 14% 1%0% 9% 2% Alberta 55% 21% 9% 5% 1%0% 7% 2% Prairies 31% 21% 17% 9% 4%1% 12% 5% Ontario 28% 34% 15% 8% 3%1% 9% 3% Quebec 14% 33% 8% 23% 8% 3%0% 9% 3% Atlantic 25% 37% 9% 10% 4%0% 12% 2% Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Undecided DK Would not vote None Note: maintain a four point lead over the Conservatives the lead over point a four maintain Vote: Federal Decided Q Jan-08 People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’. 2018,‘Another in includedsince September hasadded ofbeenCanada Party People’s Mar-08 n=1,939] voters; decided only [showing slightly? towardlean you do party that which case, In vote for?you wouldparty held which today, election were federal a If The Conservative Party Conservative The May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 May-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 The Liberal Party Liberal The Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 September, since early steady are The Liberals Nov-11 The New Democratic Party Democratic New The Feb-12 Apr-12 Jan-13 Sept-13 Apr-14 June-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 May-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 The Bloc Québécois Bloc The Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 The Green Party Green The June-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 [D Sep-18 VOTE] ECIDED Another party Another Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 W2 Jun-19 Sep-19 W1 Oct-19 W1 3% 6% 10% 15% 31% 35% 6 Decided Federal Vote by Region: The Liberals hold substantial leads in 7 Ontario and Quebec, while the CPC leads in Alberta and the Prairies If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED] Q [showing only decided voters; n=1,939] Total 31% 35% 15% 6% 10% 3%0% BC [n=266] 27% 32% 24% 15% 1%1% Alberta 60% 23% 10% 5% 1% [n=230] Prairies 38% 25% 21% 11% 5% 1% [n=121] Ontario 31% 39% 17% 9% 4%1% [n=741] Quebec 15% 37% 9% 26% 9% 3% [n=453] Atlantic 29% 44% 11% 12% 4% [n=128] Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green PPC Other 8 12% 16% 11% 11% 7% 3% 23% 16% Oct-19 W1 Sep '19 W2 Sep '19 W1 Jul '19 Jun '19 May '19 Apr '19 W2 Apr '19 W1 Would not vote/None not Would Mar '19 Feb '19 Jan '19 Dec '18 , Greens drop to to drop Greens , Nov '18 Oct '18 Sep '18 Undecided DK Undecided Aug '18 Jul '18 Jun '18 May '18 Apr '18 Mar '18 Feb '18 party Another Jan '18 Dec '17 Oct '17 Aug '17 Green Jun '17 May '17 Apr '17 Mar '17 Feb' 17 Jan '17 Dec '16 Nov '16 Quebecois Bloc Oct '16 Sep '16 Aug '16 Jun '16 NDP Apr '16 Mar '16 NDP gains to 23% for second choice second 23% for to NDP gains Feb '16 Jan '16 Liberal Dec '15 Nov '15 Oct '15 2 Oct '15 Sep '15 2 Sep '15 Aug '15 Conservative July '15 [asked only of respondents who had a first choice, n=1,939] choice, first a had who respondents of only [asked And which party would be your second choice? choice? second your be would party which And Dec '13 People’s Party of Canada has been added in September 2018, included in ‘Another party’. ‘Another in 2018, included September in added been has Canada of Party People’s Sep '13 Q 16%; Undecided down seven points to 12% to points seven down Undecided 16%; Second Choice: Second Note: 2nd Choice by 1st Choice: 36% of Liberal voters say the NDP is their 9 second choice, while another 20% say the Green Party is theirs Q And which party would be your second choice? BY Combined Vote Combined Vote Bloc Conservative Liberal NDP Green PPC/Other [QC Only] Conservative n/a 15% 15% 24% 15% 28% Liberal 10% n/a 33% 14% 16% 13% NDP 21% 36% n/a 19% 30% 9% Bloc Choice 3% 3% 1% n/a 5% 6% nd 2 Green 10% 20% 27% 15% n/a 22% People’s Party 13% 3% 6% 8% 8% 0% Other 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% Undecided/ 14% 11% 12% 9% 19% 4% Don’t know Would not 28% 14% 6% 10% 7% 14% vote/Nobody Second Choice: NDP leads on second choice in both Quebec and the 10 rest of Canada And which party would be your second choice? Q [asked only of respondents who had a first choice] Total 11% 11% 23% 3% 16% 7% 12% 16% [N=1,939] Quebec 14% 11% 22% 11% 14% 4% 13% 11% [N=453] Rest of Canada 11% 11% 24% 16% 8% 12% 18% [N=1,485] The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Quebecois The Green Party The People’s Party of Canada Another Party (Please specify) Undecided/Don't know 2nd Choice by 1st Choice: Outside of Quebec, the NDP are the clear top 11 2nd choice among Green and Liberal Voters And which party would be your second choice? BY Combined Vote Q [asked only of respondents who had a first choice] Quebec [N=70] 11% 23% 23% 2% 6% 17% 18% Conservative Rest of Canada [N=523] 10% 21% 11% 14% 14% 29% Quebec [N=167] 12% 29% 11% 19% 2% 13% 14% Liberal Rest of Canada [N=513] 16% 38% 20% 3% 10% 14% Quebec [N=41] 19% 34% 10% 24% 0% 13% NDP Rest of Canada [N=253] 15% 32% 27% 7% 12% 7% Combined Vote Combined Quebec [N=43] 9% 19% 19% 20% 4% 25% 4% Green Rest of Canada [N=145] 16% 16% 33% 10% 17% 8% BQ Quebec [N=119] 24% 14% 19% 15% 8% 9% 10% The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Quebecois The Green Party The People’s Party of Canada Another Party (Please specify) Undecided/Don't know Party ID Federal Party ID: The Liberals and Conservatives are tied on ID outside 13 of Quebec, but in Quebec the Liberals have a wide lead Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a..
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