2019 Election Political Landscape

October 8th-10th, 2019 2 Methodology

These are the results of an online survey conducted between October 8th to 10th, Unweighted Unweighted Weighted Weighted 2019. (n) (%) (n) (%) This online survey of 2,394 adult Canadians was conducted using INNOVATIVE’s Males 18-34 20/20 national research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, a 276 11.5% 306 13.9% leading provider of online sample. The results are weighted to n=2,200 based on Census data from Statistics Canada. Males 35-54 368 15.4% 369 16.8% Respondents from the Canada 20/20 Panel and the Lucid constituent panels are Males 55+ 432 18.0% 398 18.1% recruited from a wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region, and language characteristics of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the Females 18-34 360 15.0% 299 13.6% overall sample's composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data to provide results that are intended to approximate a Females 35-54 441 18.4% 380 17.3% probability sample. INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that Females 55+ 517 21.6% 449 20.4% only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire BC 403 16.8% 299 13.6% region. A total of 559 panelists started but did not finish the survey and another 220 237 9.9% 251 11.4% panelists were screened out for exceeding age/gender/region quotas. Confidence: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was Prairies 161 6.7% 147 6.7% not a random probability based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to Ontario 913 38.1% 840 38.2% most online panels. Weighting: Results for Canada are weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure 517 21.6% 513 23.3% that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according to Census data; in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a Atlantic 163 6.8% 149 6.8% probability sample. Weighted and unweighted frequencies are reported in the table. Federal Vote Combined Federal Vote: Liberals (31%) and Conservatives (27%) 4 steady since early September If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [VOTE + LEAN] Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,200]

31% 27%

13% 9% 5%

3%

Jul-08 Jul-19

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-16 Jan-17

Jun-11 Jun-16 Jun-18

Oct-11 Oct-18

Apr-10 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-18

Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Feb-18 Feb-19

July-15

Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-17 Dec-18

Aug-09 Aug-11 Aug-17 Aug-18

Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-15 Nov-16

Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-16 Mar-17

May-08 May-09 May-14 May-17 May-19

Apr-19W1 Sep-19W2 The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party Undecided / don't know Would not vote / none Note: People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’. Combined Federal Vote by Region: Liberals lead in Ontario and 5 Quebec, while the CPC is ahead in Alberta and the Prairies If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [VOTE + LEAN] Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,200]

Total 27% 31% 13% 5% 9% 3%0% 9% 3%

BC 24% 29% 21% 14% 1%0% 9% 2%

Alberta 55% 21% 9% 5% 1%0% 7% 2%

Prairies 31% 21% 17% 9% 4%1% 12% 5%

Ontario 28% 34% 15% 8% 3%1% 9% 3%

Quebec 14% 33% 8% 23% 8% 3%0% 9% 3%

Atlantic 25% 37% 9% 10% 4%0% 12% 2%

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Undecided DK Would not vote None Decided Federal Vote: The Liberals are steady since early September, 6 maintain a four point lead over the Conservatives If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED VOTE] Q [showing only decided voters; n=1,939]

35% 31%

15% 10% 6%

3%

Jul-08 Jul-11 Jul-18

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-18 Jan-19

Jun-19

Oct-09 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17

Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-17

Sep-08 Feb-10 Sep-10 Sep-11 Feb-12 Feb-16 Feb-17 Sep-18

Dec-09 Dec-15 Dec-16

Aug-09 Aug-15 Aug-16

Nov-08 Nov-11 Nov-18

Mar-08 Mar-15 Mar-18 Mar-19

May-08 May-09 May-11 May-15 May-18

Sept-13

June-14 June-17

Oct-19W1

Apr-19W2 Sep-19W1 The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party

Note: People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’. Decided Federal Vote by Region: The Liberals hold substantial leads in 7 Ontario and Quebec, while the CPC leads in Alberta and the Prairies If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED] Q [showing only decided voters; n=1,939]

Total 31% 35% 15% 6% 10% 3%0%

BC [n=266] 27% 32% 24% 15% 1%1%

Alberta 60% 23% 10% 5% 1% [n=230] Prairies 38% 25% 21% 11% 5% 1% [n=121]

Ontario 31% 39% 17% 9% 4%1% [n=741] Quebec 15% 37% 9% 26% 9% 3% [n=453] Atlantic 29% 44% 11% 12% 4% [n=128]

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green PPC Other Second Choice: NDP gains to 23% for second choice, Greens drop to 8 16%; Undecided down seven points to 12% And which party would be your second choice? Q [asked only of respondents who had a first choice, n=1,939]

23%

16% 16% 12% 11% 7%

3%

Sep '13 Sep '13 Dec '15 July '15 Aug '15 Sep 2 '15 Sep '15 Oct 2 '15 Oct '15 Nov '15 Dec '16 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 Jun '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '17 Jan 17 Feb' '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 Jun '17 Aug '17 Oct '17 Dec '18 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun Jul '18 '18 Aug '18 Sep '18 Oct '18 Nov '18 Dec '19 Jan '19 Feb '19 Mar W1 '19 Apr W2 '19 Apr '19 May '19 Jun Jul '19 W1 '19 Sep W2 '19 Sep W1 Oct-19

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Quebecois Green Another party Undecided DK Would not vote/None

Note: People’s Party of Canada has been added in September 2018, included in ‘Another party’. 2nd Choice by 1st Choice: 36% of Liberal voters say the NDP is their 9 second choice, while another 20% say the Green Party is theirs Q And which party would be your second choice? BY Combined Vote Combined Vote Bloc Conservative Liberal NDP Green PPC/Other [QC Only] Conservative n/a 15% 15% 24% 15% 28%

Liberal 10% n/a 33% 14% 16% 13%

NDP 21% 36% n/a 19% 30% 9%

Bloc

Choice 3% 3% 1% n/a 5% 6% nd

2 Green 10% 20% 27% 15% n/a 22%

People’s Party 13% 3% 6% 8% 8% 0%

Other 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% Undecided/ 14% 11% 12% 9% 19% 4% Don’t know Would not 28% 14% 6% 10% 7% 14% vote/Nobody Second Choice: NDP leads on second choice in both Quebec and the 10 rest of Canada And which party would be your second choice? Q [asked only of respondents who had a first choice]

Total 11% 11% 23% 3% 16% 7% 12% 16% [N=1,939]

Quebec 14% 11% 22% 11% 14% 4% 13% 11% [N=453]

Rest of Canada 11% 11% 24% 16% 8% 12% 18% [N=1,485]

The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Quebecois The Green Party The People’s Party of Canada Another Party (Please specify) Undecided/Don't know 2nd Choice by 1st Choice: Outside of Quebec, the NDP are the clear top 11 2nd choice among Green and Liberal Voters And which party would be your second choice? BY Combined Vote Q [asked only of respondents who had a first choice]

Quebec [N=70] 11% 23% 23% 2% 6% 17% 18% Conservative Rest of Canada [N=523] 10% 21% 11% 14% 14% 29%

Quebec [N=167] 12% 29% 11% 19% 2% 13% 14% Liberal Rest of Canada [N=513] 16% 38% 20% 3% 10% 14%

Quebec [N=41] 19% 34% 10% 24% 0% 13% NDP Rest of Canada [N=253] 15% 32% 27% 7% 12% 7%

Combined Vote Combined Quebec [N=43] 9% 19% 19% 20% 4% 25% 4% Green Rest of Canada [N=145] 16% 16% 33% 10% 17% 8%

BQ Quebec [N=119] 24% 14% 19% 15% 8% 9% 10% The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party The Bloc Quebecois The Green Party The People’s Party of Canada Another Party (Please specify) Undecided/Don't know Party ID Federal Party ID: The Liberals and Conservatives are tied on ID outside 13 of Quebec, but in Quebec the Liberals have a wide lead Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a... Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,200]

Rest of Canada Quebec

29% 27% 28% 24% 26% 19% 13% 11% 5% 7% 7% 2% 2%

n=1,687 n=513

Note: Other (1%) not shown. Note: Other (<1%) not shown. Federal Party ID: The Liberals (28%) lead on ID over the Conservatives 14 (23%); 25% are unaligned Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a... Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,200]

28% 25% 23%

12%13%

Jul-18 Jul-19

Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19

Oct-13 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18

Apr-11 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18

Feb-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Sep-18 Feb-19

Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Aug-17 Aug-18

Nov-15 Nov-18

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

May-15 May-17 May-18 May-19

Oct-19 Oct-19 W1

Apr-19 W1 Apr-19 W2 Apr-19 Sep-19 W2 Sep-19 Conservative Liberal NDP Other Unaligned W1 Sep-19 Vote by Party ID: 88% of Conservative partisans say they would vote 15 CPC, while 85% of Liberals say they would vote for the LPC Combined Vote BY Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a... Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,200] Party ID Bloc Conservative Liberal NDP Green PPC/Other Unaligned [QC Only] Conservative 88% 4% 7% 2% 1% 18% 17%

Liberal 4% 85% 13% 8% 7% 11% 15%

NDP 3% 4% 69% 0% 7% 17% 10%

Bloc 1% 0% 1% 83% 2% 2% 5%

Green 1% 3% 6% 3% 80% 5% 8%

Combined Vote Combined People’s Party 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 35% 3%

Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% Undecided/ 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5% 31% Don’t know Would not 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 5% 10% vote/Nobody Voter Pools Voter Pools: Liberal (35%) base slightly larger than CPC (31%) with 17 more Soft Choice voters

6% 12% 16% 24% 23%

61% 60% 30% 34% 64% 68% 11% 11% 5% 12% 6% 11% 4% 12% 8% 35% 31% 9% 9% 11% 11% 17% 18% 22% 7% 27% 13% 5% 14% 4% 2% 6% 4% 5% 1% Liberals Conservatives NDP Bloc Green People's Party (QC only) Decided Soft Second choice Undecided Non Never vote Decided: Voting for the party, and have heard all they need to make up their mind Soft: Voting for the party, but would like to hear more before making up their mind Second Choice: The party is second choice, and they would like to hear more before making up their mind Undecided: Undecided voters Non-party: Voting for another party and second choice is not for the party, or they have made up their mind Never vote: Would never vote for that party Battleground Segments (Rest of Canada): Tory base slightly larger, 18 but there are more Liberal swing voters

Core Liberals Unaligned: All respondents who did 17% not choose one of the main parties as their initial vote choice including Other, wouldn’t vote and undecided.

3% LPC-Green Lib-CPC Swing Swing Lib-NDP Swing 21% 5% 8%

Unaligned 4% Core Green 2% 3% CPC-Green NDP-Green Swing Swing

1% 1% 22% 4% 7% Core PPC CPC-PPC Swing CPC-NDP Swing Core NDP Core Tories Battleground Segments (Quebec): In Quebec, the Liberals have the 19 largest pool of core voters and swing voters

Unaligned: All respondents who did not Core Liberals 20% choose one of the five main parties as their initial vote choice including Other, wouldn’t vote and undecided. 3% Core Green 3% LPC-BQ Swing Lib-CPC Swing Lib-NDP Swing 3% 20% 6% 3% 1% 2% 2%

14% LPC- CPC- NDP- BQ- Unaligned Green Green Green Green Swing Swing Swing Swing Core BQ 3% 2% CPC-BQ Swing NDP-BQ Swing

2% 1% 9% 2% 4% Core PPC CPC-PPC Swing Core Tories CPC-NDP Swing Core NDP Satisficing Made up Mind: A majority have now made up their minds in the 21 federal election Q Which statement is closest to your view about the upcoming federal election? % Would like to hear more By current combined vote choice 52% 54% 50% 50% Conservative 27% 42% 41% 41% 38% Liberal 37%

NDP 49%

Bloc 35%

Green 50% 9% 8% 7% 8% PPC/Other 37%

I have heard all I need to I would like to hear more Don't know Undecided 59% make up my mind in this before I finally make up election my mind in this election Would not vote 13%

Sep '15 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 Combined Vote by Certainty: The CPC (35%) are slightly ahead of the 22 Liberals (33%) among those who have made up their minds Combined vote by: Which statement is closest to your view about the upcoming federal election? Q [asked of all respondents; n=2,200]

Total 27% 31% 13% 5% 9% 3%0% 9% 3%

I have heard all I need to make up my mind in 35% 33% 12% 6% 7% 3%0%2%2% this election

I would like to hear more before I finally make 19% 30% 17% 5% 11% 3%0% 14% 1% up my mind in this election

Don’t know 9% 20% 6% 2% 5% 1%0% 36% 21%

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Peoples Party Other Undecided DK Would not vote None 2015 Value Clusters: Where are we now? 24 Core Political Values: Tracked since the 2015 federal election

When governments make major decisions concerning spending on Is the main role of government …? Q programs and services, do you think they should be based on …? Q

To create equal opportunity so that everyone can compete on their own 11% Their ability to afford the programs and services 12% to be the best they can be 35% The public’s need for the programs To redistribute wealth so that the and services poor and disadvantaged have more 32% 56% than they would if left on their own 54% Don’t know Don’t know

Q Which one of the following statements comes closest to your Q When it comes to government decision making, which of the view? The profit system … following statements is closest to your view?

Too often the government listens to … brings out the worst in human 18% 15% experts instead of common sense nature 38% … teaches people the value of hard Provincial issues are complicated so work and success 52% government should listen to experts 33% 44% when it comes to policy Don’t know Don’t know

Note: Showing October 2019 Wave 1 results. Value Clusters: Respondents are clustered into groups based on their 25 answers to the core value questions Clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense.

Left Liberals Core Left 16% 17%

Business Thrifty Liberals Moderates 25% 21%

Populist Deferential Conservatives Conservatives 12% 10%

Note: Showing October 2019 Wave 1 results. 26 Defining Value Clusters

Core Political Values by Value Clusters

Thrifty Populist Deferential Business Column % Core Left Left Liberals Moderates Conservatives Conservatives Liberals

Create equal opportunity 0% 31% 99% 73% 63% 97% Is the main role of government to …? Redistribute wealth 95% 39% 0% 19% 25% 0%

Brings out worst in human 81% 56% 0% 0% 0% 80% nature The profit system … Teaches value of hard work 0% 14% 86% 92% 90% 0% and success

When gov’ts make decisions on Ability to afford 0% 74% 89% 91% 0% 0% spending on programs/services, do you think they should base their decisions on… Public need 92% 0% 0% 0% 97% 92%

Rely on common sense 50% 52% 100% 0% 48% 56% When it comes to government decision making… Listen to experts 34% 19% 0% 88% 40% 30%

Note: Showing October 2019 Wave 1 results. Value Clusters: Liberals dip with Core Left and Left Liberals, while the 27 Conservatives now directionally lead among Thrifty Moderates Core Left Left Liberals 53% 55% 44% 46% 47% 45% 45% 46% 41% 37% 40% 38% 42% 38% 37% 35% 38% 39% 32% 36% 26% 34% 25% 23% 29% 24% 26% 25% 27% 21% 18% 20% 15% 15% 15% 20% 18% 11% 15% 14% 19% 19% 8% 9% 7%8% 8% 9% 17% 15% 13% 8% 13% 12% 6% 5% 6% 8% 7% 5% 5% 5% 11% 10% 6% 4% 8% 4%6% 5% 6% 7% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3%2% 0% 1% 1%4% 1% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1%3% 2%1% 3% 3% 2% July '15 Sept '15 Oct '15 Post-Election '15 Jan '18 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 July '15 Sept '15 Oct '15 Post-Election '15 Jan '18 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 Thrifty Moderates Business Liberals

52% 39% 49% 43% 44% 39% 36% 39% 41% 44% 36% 33% 33% 34% 29% 34% 30% 30% 30% 30% 28% 25% 26% 25% 25% 30% 26% 29% 27% 28% 21% 19% 23% 25% 24% 21% 26% 26% 15% 13% 15% 16% 23% 18% 13% 13% 7% 14% 10% 11% 10% 7% 4% 11% 9% 7% 7% 8% 7% 4% 8% 7% 8% 7% 5% 6% 7% 8% 7% 10% 6% 7%6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6% 1% 2% 1% 1% 7%2% 5% 0% 0%4% 4%0% 1%3% 5%0% 5% 3% July '15 Sept '15 Oct '15 Post-Election '15 Jan '18 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 July '15 Sept '15 Oct '15 Post-Election '15 Jan '18 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 Populist Conservatives Deferential Conservatives 54% 54% 46% 52% 73% 71% 44% 42% 66% 66% 63% 44% 71% 45% 64% 34% 29% 34% 64% 24% 26% 30% 37% 19% 23% 20% 13% 14% 15% 20% 18% 16% 18% 18% 10% 9% 7% 10% 8% 12% 5% 14% 8% 8% 3% 7%5% 10%3% 5% 3% 5% 5% 3% 5% 6% 8% 7% 4% 8% 3% 3% 5% 4%3%2% 3% 3% 3%8% 4%3% 6% 1%1% 3%2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2%2% 4%3% 1% 4%4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% July '15 Sept '15 Oct '15 Post-Election '15 Jan '18 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 July '15 Sept '15 Oct '15 Post-Election '15 Jan '18 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 Note: Individual charts use different scales. Decided vote: Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc PPC/Other Use caution when comparing across charts. The Economic Gap Segmentation Attitudes: A majority of Canadians both believe in the 29 Canadian dream and say it is harder to get by Now turning to a different subject…Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Q [asked of all respondents]

Here in [PROVINCE] you can be 23% 34% 21% 11% 6% 4% anything you want if you are willing to work for it

No matter how hard I work, every year it seems more difficult to get by 29% 31% 22% 9% 4% 4%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

Note: Showing October 2019 Wave 1 results. Economic Gap Segmentation: More than 1-in-3 (35%) believe in the 30 Canadian dream but are struggling to get by Q Gap segmentation: Agree with “Here in [PROVINCE] you can be anything you want if you are willing to work for it” BY Agree with “No matter how hard I work, every year it seems more difficult to get by”.

Believe in Don’t believe in Canadian Dream, Canadian Dream not struggling to get by Alienated Canadian 18% Dream Achievers 22%

Ambivalent 25% Canadian Dream Strugglers Neutral or don’t 35% know on Canadian Believe in Canadian Dream Dream, but find it difficult to get by

Note: Showing October 2019 Wave 1 results. Federal Vote by Gap Segments: CPC leads among Strugglers since the 31 start of the election Canadian Dream Achievers Canadian Dream Strugglers

54% 44% 35% 41% 45% 36% 39% 36% 32% 28% 30% 30% 36% 32% 33% 31% 13% 13% 14% 14% 13% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 6% 7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 1%2% 2% 4% 2% 1% Oct '16 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 Oct '16 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1

Ambivalent Alienated

47% 37% 38% 40% 36% 32% 34% 35%

31% 23% 24% 24% 25% 22% 27% 21% 16% 19% 22% 19% 16% 18% 19% 17% 13% 13% 15% 13% 11% 14% 13% 7% 8% 6% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 5% 3% 2% 2% Oct '16 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1 Oct '16 Sept '19 W1 Sept '19 W2 Oct '19 W1

Decided vote: Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc PPC/Other Note: Individual charts use different scales. Use caution when comparing across charts. Time for a Change Time for a change: A majority believe it is time for a change, highest among 33 Conservative partisans Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? It is time for a change in Q government here in Canada. [asked of all respondents; n=2,200] Party ID Segmentation Net agreement

Conservative +84% Net Agreement: Agree: 57% +38% Liberal -22%

NDP +59% 39% Bloc +48%

Green +65% Disagree: 19% 18% 18% PPC +59%

11% Independent +47% 8% 7% Don't know +34%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor Somewhat Strongly disagree Don’t know disagree disagree

Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total disagree]. For Party ID segmentation, Other (n=15) not shown. Best of a bad lot: Respondents are split on whether or not the Liberals are still 34 the best party to form government

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Liberals may have their Q problems but they are still the best party to form government. [asked of all respondents; n=2,200] Party ID Segmentation Net agreement

Net Agreement: Conservative -67% -4% Liberal +71% Disagree: 40% Agree: 36% 28% NDP -13%

Bloc -25% 19% 17% 17% Green -25%

12% PPC +2%

7% Independent -18%

Don't know -18%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor Somewhat Strongly disagree Don’t know disagree disagree

Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total disagree]. For Party ID segmentation, Other (n=15) not shown. 35 Time for Change Segmentation: Creating the Segments

Based on the two agree/disagree statements “It is time for a change in government here in Canada” and “The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government”, we create a segmentation for analysis.

Strongly Somewhat Neutral/ Don’t Somewhat Strongly disagree disagree know agree agree LPC Best Party for Government Strongly agree Hostile Soft Anti-LPC Time for Change LPC Somewhat Soft Anti- agree LPC

Neutral/ Don’t know Uncertain Soft LPC Soft Anti-LPC

Somewhat Change for Time disagree Soft LPC Core LPC Strongly disagree Time for Change Segmentation: Respondents were grouped together based 36 on their views of the LPC

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? It is time for a change in government here in Canada. Q Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government. [asked of all respondents; n=1,600]

Do not think it is time for a change and agree the Liberals are best to Think it is time for a change and form government do not believe the Liberals are Core LPC, 17% best to form government Hostile, 25%

Soft LPC, 10%

Think it is time for a change, Time for change but believe the Liberals are still best to form government Soft anti-LPC, LPC, 10% 25% Uncertain, 13% Vote by TfC Segment: NDP gains among Time for a change Liberals, 37 Uncertain, and Soft Anti-LPC groups Core LPC Uncertain

93% 93% 37% 35%

21% 20% 17% 17%13% 15% 8% 2% 8% 1% 2% 4% 2% 1%1% 3% 3%1%0% 1% Sept '19 W1 Oct '19 W1 Sept '19 W1 Oct '19 W1 Soft LPC Soft Anti-LPC 38% 32% 27% 62% 68% 22%19% 15% 10% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 6% 6%6% 14%9%6% 5% 4% 1% 2% Sept '19 W1 Oct '19 W1 Sept '19 W1 Oct '19 W1 TfC LPC Hostile

46% 69% 71% 44%

18% 22% 16% 14% 12% 11% 10%8% 5% 5% 10% 6% 3% 4% 11%6% 5% 1%3% Sept '19 W1 Oct '19 W1 Sept '19 W1 Oct0% '19 W1 Note: Individual charts use different scales. Decided vote: Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc PPC/Other Use caution when comparing across charts. Federal Vote: Seat Clusters 39 Online Sample Methodology: October 2019

• This report combines the results of two online surveys conducted in October 2019. • In total, the dataset contains a representative sample of n=5,229 Canadians, 18 years or older. Online samples for the Tracking survey of the surveys were provided by Lucid, while the Ad Testing survey sample was provided by Dynata, both leading providers of online samples. The dates and sample sizes for each survey were: • Tracking Survey: Conducted from October 8th to October 10th, 2019 with an unweighted sample size of 2,394 (weighted to 2,200) • Ad-Testing Survey Wave 3: Conducted from October 3rd to October 7th , 2019 with an unweighted sample size of 2,835 (weighted to 2,300) • The combined sample is weighted to n=4,500 by age, gender and provincial sub-regions using the latest Statistics Canada Census data. Results are weighted to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. • Respondents were grouped together into their federal electoral districts based on their postal code. A weighted total of 541 respondents could not be grouped into a federal electoral district because they did not provide a postal code or their postal code matched multiple districts. • INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire region. • This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online panels.

Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers. 40 The Seat Clusters

In Canadian elections, we count seats not votes. Seat Clusters Seats Weighted Sample Size For this analysis, we have grouped seats together into clusters where ridings are Strong CPC 65 765 similar to one another according to which parties have historically been successful Strong LPC 32 354 there in addition to the region where the seat is located. LPC-CPC GTA 33 450 These seat clusters can help us better understand changes in support for parties in LPC-CPC Rest of Ontario 34 390 ridings which have typically had similar voting behaviour. Each of these clusters is LPC-CPC Lower mainland 11 120 listed along with the pooled sample size of respondents from each cluster. LPC-CPC Atlantic 14 110 The core analysis that drives the groups is based on classifying ridings as: Other LPC-CPC 19 219 LPC-NDP Quebec 27 345 • Stronghold: A seat won by a party in both 2011 and 2015 by >10% LPC-NDP RoC 26 302 • Competitive: A seat won in either 2011 or 2015 by the party OR lost by an NDP Strong/Swing QC 14 183 average of less than 10% across both elections (a seat can be competitive for NDP Strong/Swing RoC 16 220 multiple parties) BQ Competitive 18 198 • Two-way races (e.g. LPC-CPC): Seats that are competitive for both listed parties, Green target 15 191 but for no other parties. 2015 3-Way 14 168

See the Appendix for detailed definitions of each cluster and which ridings they contain. Strong CPC: Conservatives are holding on to most of their 2015 41 support in their safest seats

Q Decided Vote The strongest Conservative seats across Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 22% 53% 12% 7% 4% the last two elections. These seats are unlikely to flip in the 2019 campaign. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 24% 49% 11% 9% 5%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 24% 51% 10% 8% 5%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 22% 51% 11% 10% 4% Seats Won Seats Won Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 26% 50% 11% 6% 5% Liberal 0 0

2015 Election Results 25% 56% 14% 3% CPC 65 62

NDP 0 3 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-CPC Atlantic: In the new October polling, the Liberals look to have 42 regained their lead in these seats Q Decided Vote

Seats historically competitive for Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 46% 25% 8% 19% 2%0% both Liberals and Conservatives in Atlantic Canada. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 37% 33% 7% 17% 6%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 37% 39% 7% 13% 4%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Seats Won Seats Won 41% 31% 8% 15% 5%0%1% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 38% 26% 13% 10% 11%1% Liberal 14 0

2015 Election Results 54% 27% 14% 3%2% CPC 0 14

NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-CPC Rest of Ontario: In two-way races outside the GTA, the 43 Liberals now hold a five-point lead over the CPC

Q Decided Vote

Races that have been historically Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 39% 34% 11% 12% 4%1% close between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario outside of Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 36% 35% 12% 12% 5% the GTA.

June - Sept 2019 Polling 39% 32% 10% 15% 4%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Seats Won Seats Won 37% 35% 12% 12% 5% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 44% 37% 10% 7%2%0% Liberal 18 0

2015 Election Results 44% 39% 13% 3%1% CPC 16 34

NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-CPC Toronto & GTA: The Liberals have slipped, while the CPC has 44 gained, narrowing the Liberal lead to only four points

Q Decided Vote

Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 42% 38% 10% 7%2% Races that have been historically close between the Liberals and Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 44% 35% 10% 8%5% Conservatives in Toronto and the GTA.

June - Sept 2019 Polling 41% 35% 12% 7% 4%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Seats Won Seats Won 43% 36% 11% 6% 4%0%1% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 43% 38% 10% 4%4% Liberal 30 0

2015 Election Results 49% 39% 9%2%1% CPC 3 33

NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-CPC Lower Mainland: The Liberals have made strong gains since 45 September, while the Conservatives have slipped to 2nd place

Q Decided Vote

Seats historically competitive for Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 46% 25% 13% 13% 2%0% both Liberals and Conservatives in BC’s Lower Mainland. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 29% 36% 15% 14% 5%0%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 35% 33% 16% 10% 6%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Seats Won Seats Won 28% 36% 18% 13% 4%0%1% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 33% 39% 14% 11% 3%0%1% Liberal 7 0

2015 Election Results 43% 37% 16% 4% CPC 4 11

NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Other LPC-CPC: After winning this cluster by six points in 2015 and 46 picking up 12 seats, the Liberals are now nearly tied with the CPC

Q Decided Vote

Liberal vs. Tory races in the rest of the Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 38% 35% 17% 7%2%0% country. Three of these are in Quebec, five in BC’s Interior or North, and Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 35% 37% 12% 8% 5%4% eleven in the Prairies or Alberta

June - Sept 2019 Polling 33% 40% 15% 7% 3%3%

Seats Won Seats Won Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 34% 39% 11% 8% 4%4%0% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 41% 34% 12% 6% 4%2%0% Liberal 13 1

2015 Election Results 43% 37% 14% 3%2%1% CPC 6 17

NDP 0 1 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts 2015 3-Way: An 18-point loss for the NDP since 2015 makes way to a 47 rise in the Conservative strength, putting the CPC in 1st in these seats

Q Decided Vote

Seats that were 3-way races in the Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 29% 39% 13% 9% 1% 9% 2015 election campaign.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 35% 36% 14% 11% 1%3%0%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 25% 29% 23% 13% 5%4%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Seats Won Seats Won 34% 30% 19% 11% 2%3%1% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 32% 36% 20% 5%2%4%1% Liberal 6 0

2015 Election Results 31% 30% 31% 3%4%1% CPC 3 9

NDP 5 5 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Strong LPC: The Liberals continue to lead in these seats, despite 48 dropping 16 points since the last election

Q Decided Vote The strongest LPC seats that they Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 46% 27% 15% 6% 4%1%0% held onto even in the tough 2011 campaign. These seats are their core base. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 47% 26% 12% 9% 4%2%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 46% 25% 13% 9% 4%3%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Seats Won Seats Won 47% 25% 14% 8% 4%2%0% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 51% 24% 14% 5%3%3%0% Liberal 32 32

2015 Election Results 62% 20% 14% 3%1% CPC 0 0

NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-NDP Quebec: With the NDP down 16 points since 2015 in these 49 seats, the Liberals hold a strong lead

Q Decided Vote

Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 48% 12% 8% 8% 3% 21% Seats historically competitive between the Liberals and NDP in Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 43% 20% 9% 8% 3% 18% Quebec.

June - Sept 2019 Polling 44% 17% 10% 12% 3% 15%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Seats Won Seats Won 49% 15% 9% 6% 4% 16% 0% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 43% 13% 13% 8% 2% 19% 1% Liberal 26 0

2015 Election Results 44% 13% 24% 2% 17% CPC 0 0

NDP 0 26 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-NDP Rest of Canada: CPC and Greens may be benefiting from the 50 NDP post-election decline in these seats, but the Liberals look strong

Q Decided Vote

Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 37% 23% 26% 9% 4%1% Seats historically competitive between the NDP and Liberals outside of Quebec. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 43% 21% 21% 11% 3%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 43% 25% 18% 12%2%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 46% 22% 21% 7% 4%0% Seats Won Seats Won Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 47% 21% 19% 9%3%0% Liberal 26 1

2015 Election Results 49% 16% 32% 3% CPC 0 0

NDP 0 26 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Quebec NDP Strong/Swing: The Bloc are up 12 points in these seats 51 since the last election, now ahead of the Liberals

Q Decided Vote The strongest NDP seats in Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 28% 16% 12% 8% 3% 33% Quebec grouped with some in which they were competitive Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 31% 17% 13% 11% 3% 23% 1% against the Conservatives or Bloc. June - Sept 2019 Polling 30% 20% 11% 10% 4% 26%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 32% 18% 12% 9% 6% 22% 1% Seats Won Seats Won Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 26% 18% 20% 6% 7% 22% 2% Liberal 0 0 2015 Election Results 27% 13% 36% 2% 21% 1% CPC 1 1

Liberal Conservative NDP NDP 13 13 Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts NDP Strong/Swing Rest of Canada: These seats are now a three-way 52 race between the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP

Q Decided Vote

The strongest NDP seats outside of Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 30% 32% 29% 7%2% Quebec grouped with some in which they were competitive Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 29% 28% 34% 4%4% against the Conservatives.

June - Sept 2019 Polling 28% 30% 26% 9% 6%1%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Seats Won Seats Won 27% 32% 25% 13% 2%1%0% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 35% 32% 20% 10%2%1%0% Liberal 0 0

2015 Election Results 28% 26% 42% 3%1% CPC 0 2

NDP 16 14 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Green Target: The Greens are up to 24% in their target seats, still 53 trailing behind the Liberals

Q Decided Vote Seats where the Greens showed some strength in 2015 and could target this Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 31% 17% 23% 24% 1%2%1% time around. 7/15 of these seats are on Island. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 29% 27% 18% 20% 5%2%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 30% 24% 18% 20% 5%3% Seats Won Seats Won Party 2015 2011* Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 34% 23% 19% 18% 5%1%0% Liberal 6 2

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 36% 25% 12% 20% 4%1%0% CPC 0 5 NDP 7 7 2015 Election Results 33% 21% 26% 17% 2%1% Bloc 1 0 Green 1 1 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts BQ Competitive: The Bloc are now ahead of where they were in 2015, 54 putting them in the lead in this group of seats

Q Decided Vote Seats where the Bloc has been Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 26% 17% 8% 14% 1% 34% competitive in 2011 and 2015, excluding some that fall into other clusters. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 33% 18% 5% 11% 3% 30%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 24% 22% 7% 14% 4% 28% 1% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 27% 27% 6% 12% 3% 23% 2% 2015 2011* Liberal 5 0 Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 20% 26% 13% 7%1% 31% 2% CPC 1 0 2015 Election Results 29% 11% 27% 2% 30% 1% NDP 3 14

Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc 9 4 Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Federal Vote: Quebec Regions 56 Regional Analysis

Q N-Size Region Subregion Oct 3-10 Atlantic Urban Atlantic 114 Respondents were grouped together into their federal electoral districts Canada Rural Atlantic 144 based on the first three digits of their postal code. The electoral districts Quebec City Area 147 were then grouped geographically into subregions within the larger Rural Francophone Quebec 303 Quebec divisions of the country. Francophone Montreal/Suburbs 251 Quebec: Anglophone or Mixed 231 This section shows the results of the most Quebec subregions and Toronto 325 compares them to the last election, as well as various points GTA Suburbs 390 Ontario throughout 2019. South/West 419 North/East 418 Because of the small sample in each subregion, the results of the several Saskatoon/Regina 64 surveys have been pooled together. Prairies Winnipeg 109 The table beside here shows the complete list of regions and the sample Rest of Prairies 90 size of respondents in each region. The total weighted n-size of 120 Alberta 149 respondents matched to electoral districts is 4,016 in the October 3rd to 195 th Rest of Alberta 10 sample. City of Vancouver 92 Vancouver Suburbs 185 BC Fraser Valley 49 Vancouver Island 102 Rest of BC 118 Quebec City & Beauce Area: The Bloc Quebecois have doubled their 57 vote share in the Quebec City Area, likely at the expense of the NDP QQ Decided Vote

Oct 2019 Polling 22% 32% 6% 11% 26% 4%0%

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 25% 34% 5% 10% 18% 7%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 22% 36% 7% 10% 16% 8% 1%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 29% 28% 6% 15% 17% 4%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 26% 36% 9% 5% 15% 6% 3%

2015 Election Results 25% 39% 20% 2% 13%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc People's Party Other Rural Francophone Quebec: The Bloc are up eight points in the last 58 election; the Liberals have remained steady, now tied with the Bloc QQ Decided Vote

Oct 2019 Polling 31% 17% 11% 7% 31% 3%0%

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 30% 20% 11% 11% 24% 4%0%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 26% 21% 13% 13% 22% 4%0%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 32% 21% 10% 11% 20% 5%1%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 25% 20% 17% 8% 23% 5% 2%

2015 Election Results 33% 13% 28% 2% 23% 1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc People's Party Other Francophone Montreal/Suburbs: The Liberals and Bloc remain close 59 while the NDP has dropped more than 20 points QQ Decided Vote

Oct 2019 Polling 32% 13% 7% 15% 31% 2%

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 36% 18% 7% 10% 27% 2%0%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 36% 17% 7% 13% 25% 2%0%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 34% 20% 8% 7% 25% 4%2%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 28% 19% 17% 6% 27% 2%1%

2015 Election Results 32% 10% 28% 3% 27% 1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc People's Party Other Quebec Anglophone/Mixed: The Liberal lead in Anglophone Quebec is 60 now stronger than it was in 2015 QQ Decided Vote

Oct 2019 Polling 58% 12% 10% 5% 13% 2%

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 49% 16% 9% 9% 12% 4%1%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 51% 18% 7% 8% 13% 3%0%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 52% 17% 10% 6% 10% 5%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 49% 16% 10% 7% 14% 3%0%

2015 Election Results 51% 14% 22% 2% 10% 1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc People's Party Other Appendix: Seat Cluster Definitions 62

Defining the Seat Clusters

This section outlines the precise definition of each seat cluster and which federal electoral districts it contains.

For this analysis, we based the clusters on a few key definitions that are repeated throughout this section:

• Stronghold: A seat won by a party in both 2011 and 2015 by >10%

• Competitive: A seat won in either 2011 or 2015 by the party OR lost by an average of less than 10% across both elections (a seat can be competitive for multiple parties)

• Two-way races (e.g. LPC-CPC): Seats that are competitive for both listed parties, but for no other parties. • LPC-CPC note: These seats have a manual adjustment so that if the Liberals were competitive in 2015 but not 2011 they are still included.

Seats are assigned to clusters by a combination of the classifications above with regional breakdowns. Some special rules are used for Green Targets and 2015 3-way races and some manual adjustments are made to reflect special circumstances and are noted throughout. 63

Seat Cluster Distribution by Region

Ontario: Ontario: Vancouver Lower Rest of Edmonton Rest of Saskatoon Rest of Rest of Montreal: Montreal: Quebec Rest of Winnipeg Toronto South/ North/ Anglophone Francophone Atlantic Island Mainland BC /Calgary Alberta /Regina Prairies GTA City Area Quebec West East ridings ridings Strong CPC 1 1 13 15 3 12 2 7 5 6

Other LPC-CPC 5 5 5 1 1 2

LPC-CPC Atlantic 14

LPC-CPC Rest of Ontario 16 18

LPC-CPC Toronto & GTA 8 25

LPC-CPC Lower Mainland 11

2015 3-Way 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 3

Strong LPC 2 1 8 1 4 5 1 10

LPC-NDP Quebec 5 12 1 9

LPC-NDP RoC 2 2 1 9 1 1 4 6

NDP Strong/Swing QC 1 3 10

NDP Strong/Swing RoC 3 2 1 1 1 6 2

Green Target 7 3 1 1 1 2

BQ Competitive 6 1 11 64

Strong CPC

Includes CPC stronghold seats (won in both 2011 & 2015 by >10%) OR CPC-only competitive seats (won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10%, and competitive for no other parties). 3 decisive CPC wins in Quebec city from 2015 are added manually to this group even though they technically are classified as competitive for the NDP because based on their strength in 2011.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Abbotsford Lower mainland Beauce Quebec Quebec City Area Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Prince George--Peace Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis Quebec Quebec City Area Alberta Edmonton/Calgary River--Northern Rockies British Columbia Rest of BC Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles Quebec Quebec City Area Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Brandon--Souris Manitoba Rest of prairies Lévis--Lotbinière Quebec Quebec City Area Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Dauphin--Swan River-- Louis-Saint-Laurent Quebec Quebec City Area Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Neepawa Manitoba Rest of prairies Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier Quebec Quebec City Area Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Portage--Lisgar Manitoba Rest of prairies Battlefords--Lloydminster Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Manitoba Rest of prairies Cypress Hills--Grasslands Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Selkirk--Interlake--EastmanManitoba Rest of prairies Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Haliburton--Kawartha Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Lakes--Brock Ontario Ontario: North/East Prince Albert Saskatchewan Rest of prairies St. Albert--Edmonton Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Lanark--Frontenac-- Souris--Moose Mountain Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Sherwood Park--Fort Kingston Ontario Ontario: North/East Yorkton--Melville Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Saskatchewan Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Renfrew--Nipissing-- Regina--Qu'appelle Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina Banff--Airdrie Alberta Rest of Alberta Pembroke Ontario Ontario: North/East Saskatoon--Grasswood Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina Battle River--Crowfoot Alberta Rest of Alberta Stormont--Dundas--South Saskatoon--University Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina Bow River Alberta Rest of Alberta Glengarry Ontario Ontario: North/East Edmonton--Wetaskiwin Alberta Rest of Alberta York--Simcoe Ontario Ontario: North/East Foothills Alberta Rest of Alberta Brantford--Brant Ontario Ontario: South/West Fort Mcmurray--Cold Lake Alberta Rest of Alberta Elgin--Middlesex--London Ontario Ontario: South/West Grande Prairie--Mackenzie Alberta Rest of Alberta Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Ontario Ontario: South/West Lakeland Alberta Rest of Alberta Niagara West Ontario Ontario: South/West Lethbridge Alberta Rest of Alberta Oxford Ontario Ontario: South/West Medicine Hat--Cardston-- Sarnia--Lambton Ontario Ontario: South/West Warner Alberta Rest of Alberta Wellington--Halton Hills Ontario Ontario: South/West Peace River--Westlock Alberta Rest of Alberta Oshawa Ontario Rest of GTA Red Deer--Mountain View Alberta Rest of Alberta Thornhill Ontario Rest of GTA Red Deer--Lacombe Alberta Rest of Alberta Sturgeon River--Parkland Alberta Rest of Alberta Yellowhead Alberta Rest of Alberta 65

Strong LPC

Includes LPC stronghold seats (won in both 2011 & 2015 by >10%) OR LPC-only competitive seats (won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10%, and competitive for no other parties).

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Vancouver Centre British Columbia Lower mainland British Columbia Lower mainland Beauséjour New Brunswick Atlantic Bonavista--Burin--Trinity Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Coast Of Bays--Central--Notre Dame Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Long Range Mountains Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Cape Breton--Canso Nova Scotia Atlantic Halifax West Nova Scotia Atlantic Kings--Hants Nova Scotia Atlantic Sydney--Victoria Nova Scotia Atlantic Kingston And The Islands Ontario Ontario: North/East Nipissing--Timiskaming Ontario Ontario: North/East Ottawa South Ontario Ontario: North/East Ottawa--Vanier Ontario Ontario: North/East Markham--Thornhill Ontario Rest of GTA Don Valley East Ontario Toronto Etobicoke North Ontario Toronto Toronto--St. Paul's Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Agincourt Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Guildwood Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Rouge Park Ontario Toronto Toronto Centre Ontario Toronto Humber River--Black Creek Ontario Toronto Cardigan Prince Edward Island Atlantic Charlottetown Prince Edward Island Atlantic Lac-Saint-Louis Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Notre-Dame-De-Grâce--Westmount Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Papineau Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Saint-Laurent Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Bourassa Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Regina--Wascana Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina 66

LPC-CPC GTA

Includes LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in the Greater Toronto Area.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Ajax Ontario Rest of GTA Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Ontario Rest of GTA Brampton Centre Ontario Rest of GTA Brampton North Ontario Rest of GTA Brampton South Ontario Rest of GTA Brampton West Ontario Rest of GTA Burlington Ontario Rest of GTA Durham Ontario Rest of GTA King--Vaughan Ontario Rest of GTA Markham--Stouffville Ontario Rest of GTA Markham--Unionville Ontario Rest of GTA Milton Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga Centre Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga East--Cooksville Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga--Erin Mills Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga--Lakeshore Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga--Malton Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga--Streetsville Ontario Rest of GTA Newmarket--Aurora Ontario Rest of GTA Oakville Ontario Rest of GTA Oakville North--Burlington Ontario Rest of GTA Pickering--Uxbridge Ontario Rest of GTA Richmond Hill Ontario Rest of GTA Vaughan--Woodbridge Ontario Rest of GTA Whitby Ontario Rest of GTA Don Valley North Ontario Toronto Don Valley West Ontario Toronto Eglinton--Lawrence Ontario Toronto Etobicoke Centre Ontario Toronto Etobicoke--Lakeshore Ontario Toronto Scarborough Centre Ontario Toronto Willowdale Ontario Toronto York Centre Ontario Toronto 67

LPC-CPC Rest of Ontario

Includes LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in the rest of Ontario.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Barrie--Innisfil Ontario Ontario: North/East Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ontario Ontario: North/East Bay Of Quinte Ontario Ontario: North/East Dufferin--Caledon Ontario Ontario: North/East Glengarry--Prescott--Russell Ontario Ontario: North/East Hastings--Lennox And Addington Ontario Ontario: North/East Kanata--Carleton Ontario Ontario: North/East Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands And Rideau Lakes Ontario Ontario: North/East Nepean Ontario Ontario: North/East Northumberland--Peterborough South Ontario Ontario: North/East Orléans Ontario Ontario: North/East Ottawa West--Nepean Ontario Ontario: North/East Parry Sound--Muskoka Ontario Ontario: North/East Peterborough--Kawartha Ontario Ontario: North/East Carleton Ontario Ontario: North/East Sault Ste. Marie Ontario Ontario: North/East Simcoe--Grey Ontario Ontario: North/East Simcoe North Ontario Ontario: North/East Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Ontario Ontario: South/West Cambridge Ontario Ontario: South/West Chatham-Kent--Leamington Ontario Ontario: South/West Flamborough--Glanbrook Ontario Ontario: South/West Haldimand--Norfolk Ontario Ontario: South/West Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Ontario Ontario: South/West Huron--Bruce Ontario Ontario: South/West Kitchener Centre Ontario Ontario: South/West Kitchener--Conestoga Ontario Ontario: South/West Kitchener South--Hespeler Ontario Ontario: South/West London North Centre Ontario Ontario: South/West London West Ontario Ontario: South/West Niagara Falls Ontario Ontario: South/West Perth--Wellington Ontario Ontario: South/West 68

LPC-CPC Lower Mainland

Includes LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in the Lower Mainland.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Chilliwack--Hope British Columbia Lower mainland Cloverdale--Langley City British Columbia Lower mainland Delta British Columbia Lower mainland Fleetwood--Port Kells British Columbia Lower mainland Langley--Aldergrove British Columbia Lower mainland Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon British Columbia Lower mainland Richmond Centre British Columbia Lower mainland South Surrey--White Rock British Columbia Lower mainland Steveston--Richmond East British Columbia Lower mainland British Columbia Lower mainland British Columbia Lower mainland 69

LPC-CPC Atlantic Canada

Includes LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in Atlantic Canada.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Fundy Royal New Brunswick Atlantic Madawaska--Restigouche New Brunswick Atlantic Miramichi--Grand Lake New Brunswick Atlantic Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe New Brunswick Atlantic New Brunswick Southwest New Brunswick Atlantic Saint John--Rothesay New Brunswick Atlantic Tobique--Mactaquac New Brunswick Atlantic Avalon Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Labrador Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Central Nova Nova Scotia Atlantic Cumberland--Colchester Nova Scotia Atlantic South Shore--St. Margarets Nova Scotia Atlantic West Nova Nova Scotia Atlantic Egmont Prince Edward Island Atlantic 70

Other LPC-CPC

Includes all other LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties). Three of these are in Quebec, five in rural BC, and eleven in the prairies/Alberta.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Edmonton Mill Woods Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Cariboo--Prince George British Columbia Rest of BC Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola British Columbia Rest of BC Kelowna--Lake Country British Columbia Rest of BC North Okanagan--Shuswap British Columbia Rest of BC Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley Manitoba Winnipeg Kildonan--St. Paul Manitoba Winnipeg Saint Boniface--Saint Vital Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Winnipeg Nunavut Nunavut Territories Mount Royal Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Beauport--Côte-De-Beaupré--Île D’orléans--Charlevoix Quebec Quebec City Area Mégantic--L'érable Quebec Quebec City Area Yukon Yukon Territories 71

LPC-NDP Quebec

Includes LPC-NDP seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in Quebec.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Ahuntsic-Cartierville Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Dorval--Lachine--Lasalle Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Laval--Les Îles Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Pierrefonds--Dollard Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-Des-Soeurs Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Alfred-Pellan Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Thérèse-De Blainville Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Brossard--Saint-Lambert Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Honoré-Mercier Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Hull--Aylmer Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings La Prairie Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Lasalle--Émard--Verdun Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Longueuil--Charles-Lemoyne Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Rivière-Des-Mille-Îles Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Vaudreuil--Soulanges Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Vimy Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Louis-Hébert Quebec Quebec City Area Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation Quebec Rest of Quebec Brome--Missisquoi Quebec Rest of Quebec Châteauguay--Lacolle Quebec Rest of Quebec Compton--Stanstead Quebec Rest of Quebec Gatineau Quebec Rest of Quebec Pontiac Quebec Rest of Quebec Saint-Jean Quebec Rest of Quebec Saint-Maurice--Champlain Quebec Rest of Quebec Shefford Quebec Rest of Quebec 72

LPC-NDP Rest of Canada

Includes LPC-NDP seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in the rest of Canada.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region British Columbia Lower mainland Surrey--Newton British Columbia Lower mainland Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Winnipeg Acadie--Bathurst New Brunswick Atlantic St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic St. John's South--Mount Pearl Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Northwest Territories Northwest Territories Territories Dartmouth--Cole Harbour Nova Scotia Atlantic Halifax Nova Scotia Atlantic Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook Nova Scotia Atlantic Nickel Belt Ontario Ontario: North/East Ottawa Centre Ontario Ontario: North/East Sudbury Ontario Ontario: North/East Thunder Bay--Rainy River Ontario Ontario: North/East Hamilton East--Stoney Creek Ontario Ontario: South/West Brampton East Ontario Rest of GTA Beaches--East York Ontario Toronto Davenport Ontario Toronto Parkdale--High Park Ontario Toronto Scarborough North Ontario Toronto Scarborough Southwest Ontario Toronto Spadina--Fort York Ontario Toronto Toronto--Danforth Ontario Toronto University--Rosedale Ontario Toronto York South--Weston Ontario Toronto 73

NDP Strong/Swing Quebec

Includes NDP stronghold seats (won in both 2011 & 2015 by >10%) or swing seats (competitive for the NDP, but potentially also other parties as well: won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10% across both elections) in Quebec. Excludes NDP-LPC races, which make up their own group.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Outremont Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Laurier--Sainte-Marie Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Longueuil--Saint-Hubert Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou Quebec Rest of Quebec Abitibi--Témiscamingue Quebec Rest of Quebec Berthier--Maskinongé Quebec Rest of Quebec Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques Quebec Rest of Quebec Drummond Quebec Rest of Quebec Jonquière Quebec Rest of Quebec Lac-Saint-Jean Quebec Rest of Quebec Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot Quebec Rest of Quebec Sherbrooke Quebec Rest of Quebec Trois-Rivières Quebec Rest of Quebec 74

NDP Strong/Swing Rest of Canada

Includes NDP stronghold seats (won in both 2011 & 2015 by >10%) or swing seats (competitive for the NDP, but potentially also other parties as well: won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10% across both elections) outside of Quebec. Excludes NDP-LPC races, which make up their own group. was added to this category manually based on the by-election result (based on the 2015 result it would be classified as a 3-way race).

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region

Edmonton Strathcona Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Burnaby South British Columbia Lower mainland New Westminster--Burnaby British Columbia Lower mainland British Columbia Lower mainland Kootenay--Columbia British Columbia Rest of BC Skeena--Bulkley Valley British Columbia Rest of BC Churchill--Keewatinook Aski Manitoba Rest of prairies Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing Ontario Ontario: North/East Timmins--James Bay Ontario Ontario: North/East Essex Ontario Ontario: South/West Hamilton Centre Ontario Ontario: South/West Hamilton Mountain Ontario Ontario: South/West London--Fanshawe Ontario Ontario: South/West Windsor--Tecumseh Ontario Ontario: South/West Windsor West Ontario Ontario: South/West Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina 75

BQ Competitive

Includes any seat marked as BQ competitive (won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10% across both elections) unless the seat is another party’s stronghold (won by a party in 2011 & 2015 by >10%) or a Green Target.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Hochelaga Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings La Pointe-De-L'île Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Mirabel Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Montarville Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Repentigny Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Terrebonne Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Richmond--Arthabaska Quebec Quebec City Area Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia Quebec Rest of Quebec Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel Quebec Rest of Quebec Beloeil--Chambly Quebec Rest of Quebec Chicoutimi--Le Fjord Quebec Rest of Quebec Gaspésie--Les Îles-De-La-Madeleine Quebec Rest of Quebec Joliette Quebec Rest of Quebec Laurentides--Labelle Quebec Rest of Quebec Manicouagan Quebec Rest of Quebec Montcalm Quebec Rest of Quebec Rivière-Du-Nord Quebec Rest of Quebec Salaberry--Suroît Quebec Rest of Quebec 76

Green Target

Any seat where the greens got >=8% in 2015. Note that 7/15 of these seats are Vancouver Island.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region North Vancouver British Columbia Lower mainland Vancouver East British Columbia Lower mainland West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea To Sky Country British Columbia Lower mainland Courtenay--Alberni British Columbia Vancouver Island Cowichan--Malahat--Langford British Columbia Vancouver Island Nanaimo--Ladysmith British Columbia Vancouver Island Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke British Columbia Vancouver Island Saanich--Gulf Islands British Columbia Island--Powell River British Columbia Vancouver Island Victoria British Columbia Vancouver Island Fredericton New Brunswick Atlantic Thunder Bay--Superior North Ontario Ontario: North/East Guelph Ontario Ontario: South/West Malpeque Prince Edward Island Atlantic Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings 77

2015 3-way Races

Includes any seat where the CPC, NDP, and LPC were all within 10 points in 2015, so long as it is not also a green target or BQ competitive seat.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Burnaby North--Seymour British Columbia Lower mainland Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam British Columbia Lower mainland Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge British Columbia Lower mainland Port Moody--Coquitlam British Columbia Lower mainland Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo British Columbia Rest of BC South Okanagan--West Kootenay British Columbia Rest of BC Elmwood--Transcona Manitoba Winnipeg Kenora Ontario Ontario: North/East Niagara Centre Ontario Ontario: South/West Beauport--Limoilou Quebec Quebec City Area Montmagny--L’islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-Du-Loup Quebec Quebec City Area Québec Quebec Quebec City Area Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Regina--Lewvan Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina Building Understanding. Personalized research to connect you and your audiences.

For more information, please contact:

Greg Lyle President (t) 416-642-6429 (e) [email protected]

© Copyright 2019 Innovative Research Group Inc.