4 June 5, 2016 News & Analysis A new daring, critical mood emerging in Lebanon

Dalal Saoud

Beirut

espite the gloom and uncertainties facing the country, Lebanon has successfully conducted four rounds of munici- Dpal elections. What was supposed to be a rather folkloric exercise pro- duced results that took “untouch- able” political leaders by surprise, shaking what they thought was their absolute control of their com- munities. A new mood, critical of Lebanon’s political establishment, expressed itself in different ways and levels during May’s series of municipal elections — the first such opportu- nity for Lebanese to express their political voice since the start of the Syrian war in 2011. The country has been without a president since May 2014 and the parliament’s mandate has been extended twice since 2013. What was supposed to be a rather folkloric exercise produced results that took “untouchable” political leaders by surprise.

The fact that the municipal elec- tions took place on time and with- out incident proved that Lebanon’s leaders were wrong and manipula- Sunni politician Ashraf Rifi votes at a polling station during Tripoli’s municipal elections, Lebanon, on May 29th. tive in citing security as an excuse for not having general elections. Their political disputes, coupled the Sunni Future Movement, the cessions and deals, mainly his but the door is not closed for Hariri oppositions”. with widespread corruption and Shia Party and Amal nomination of Suleiman Frangieh, to reconfirm his position as the “The weak political performance the burden of hosting more than Movement, the Christian Lebanese a pro-Hezbollah political leader and leader of the Sunnis.” of these parties explains the erosion 1.2 million Syrian refugees, plunged Forces (LF) and the Free Patriotic personal friend of Syrian President The Christian LF-FPM alliance of public support: poor governance the country into political and eco- Movement (FPM) and the Druze Bashar Assad, for the Lebanese had its own share of objections, and widespread corruption. The nomic paralysis, creating a malaise Progressive Socialist Party, struck presidency, as well as his alliance proving that it cannot control the majority of votes cast were against among the population. odd alliances to secure what they with Mikati in the municipal elec- Christians and impose itself as their dominant political parties,” Sala- The municipal elections, how- thought would be easy wins. Con- tions. sole representative. mey said. ever, presented an opportunity to trary to their expectations, they Hezbollah and its traditional Shia Is it the beginning of real, long- generate long-absent political ac- were confronted with close races “These elections ally the Amal Movement faced re- awaited change? countability. against strong traditional families reflected a new sistance to their attempts to assert The people are more encouraged “These elections reflected a new and new political and civil society popular mood, no dominance among Shias and sup- after the municipal elections and popular mood, no more at ease with figures. more at ease with press local resentments. would be more daring but the polit- the main political parties and their The rising star was Ashraf Rifi, a “There are signs of objection ical-sectarian system is still strong bumptious attitudes and imposed Sunni former police chief who re- the main political within the Shia community, too, in the absence of an alternative. deals,” said Fadia Kiwan, director signed as Justice minister earlier parties.” but still they are not clear due to The political leaders might have of the Institute of Political Science this year in protest at what he called Fadia Kiwan, director of the Hezbollah’s heavy hand and sacred finally recognised the malaise in at St Joseph University. “However, the dominant role of the heavily Institute of Political Science resistance slogan,” Kammourieh the country but do not seem yet the objection expressed was about armed, Iran-backed Shia Hezbollah. at St Joseph University said. ready to change. They quickly en- the performance and not the politi- Rifi’s list won a majority of seats Imad Salamey, a political sci- gaged again in discussions to agree cal choices adopted by the parties.” on the council in the northern city “Change is looming within the ence professor at the Lebanese a new election law that would pre- Kiwan said there is resistance to of Tripoli in the final round of the Sunni community but these are American University, explained serve their influence. the control and hegemony of Leba- municipal elections, defeating an calls to change from within (the that among the main outcomes of non’s political parties, saying: “No alliance backed by Sunni leaders, Future Movement) and for Hariri, the election was the emergence of Dalal Saoud is the deputy one is controlling his own commu- including former prime ministers who has been away for a long time, “sectarian duets” consisting of tra- Editor-in-Chief of The Arab Weekly nity… and there is no (political) po- Saad Hariri and . to make a good review,” said Amin ditional political contenders within and has been reporting on the Arab larisation anymore.” Analysts said Rifi’s victory ex- Kammourieh, a political analyst. each sectarian group “joining force region since 1990. She is based in The main parties, which include pressed a rejection of Hariri’s con- “Rifi could be a new player, partner, to confront and suppress local civil Beirut. Lessons from Lebanon’s municipal elections

Viewpoint he final round of ticularly the victory of the Tripoli’s to represent 85% of Lebanon’s presidential bid. Lebanon’s municipal Choice list, which was backed by Christians. However, the Christian Former The fourth round of elections elections, which took former Justice minister Ashraf coalition was unable to defeat an also confirmed the changing place in North Rifi. The result indicated Rifi is electoral list backed by Telecom- Justice mood among Lebanon’s Sunnis Lebanon governorate, an emerging force in Lebanese munications Minister Boutros Harb minister and represents a step back for the marked the end of a politics, particularly among the in Tannourine and an electoral list Ashraf Rifi is Hariri-led Future Movement. This Tmonth of elections in a country country’s Sunni community. backed by Future Movement MP is something that the Future Move- an emerging that has been unable to elect a Tripoli’s Choice defeated an Hadi Hbeish and former Kataeb ment itself recognised, explaining president for more than two years electoral list endorsed by senior party MP Mikhail al-Daher in Qou- force in its strange alliance with Mikati, and that has not had parliamen- political figures, including former baiyat. Lebanese whom it accused of treason after Mohamad tary elections since 2009. prime ministers Saad Hariri and The results of the elections con- politics, he became prime minister follow- Kawas The elections, which took place Najib Mikati firm Lebanon’s ability to immunise ing what it said was a Hezbollah over four rounds starting May 8th, Rifi’s success comes amid a po- itself from the worst of the Syrian particularly “coup” over Hariri’s own govern- determined the face of Lebanon’s litical row between him and Hariri, conflict. The municipal elections among the ment in 2011. However, even this municipal councils for the next six the leader of the Future Move- took place without a hitch, even in country’s bitter alliance was not enough to years and contain important indi- ment. Rifi resigned his cabinet areas adjacent to the Syrian border. Sunni overcome Rifi’s popularity. cations regarding the new political post after former minister Michel Observers say there is no real The most important revelation is reality in the country. Samaha — convicted of smug- security or logistical justification community. the rise of a new grass-roots power The last round of municipal gling explosives into Lebanon and for postponing vital parliamentary that threatens traditional politics elections was full of surprises, par- planning attacks — was granted elections scheduled for next year. and the dominance of Lebanon’s bail from prison after serving less The alliance between Lebanon’s major parties. This power, as than one year of a four-and-a-half- two largest Christian parties, represented by various electoral year sentence. Hariri endorsed Geagea’s and lists across Lebanon that sought Lebanon has been unable Samaha’s bail. Rifi also strongly Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, is to take on more traditional par- criticised Hariri’s endorsement of important to note. Until recently, ties, is calling for the introduction to elect a president for Suleiman Frangieh for president. Geagea and Aoun had been rivals of a proportional representation more than two years and The municipal elections were for Lebanon’s presidential seat. electoral system that would reduce the first chance to see the reper- Some political observers have the influence of Lebanon’s major has not had parliamentary cussions of the Christian alliance yet to be convinced about the parties. elections since 2009. between ’s Lebanese long-term future of their political Forces and ’s Free Pa- alliance, saying it would fall apart Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese triotic Movement, which purports should Frangieh decide to forgo his writer.