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A Persistent Threat: the Evolution of Al Qa'ida and Other Salafi Jihadists

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A Persistent Threat: the Evolution of Al Qa'ida and Other Salafi Jihadists CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. A Persistent Threat The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists Seth G. Jones C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE A Persistent Threat The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists Seth G. Jones Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8572-6 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark Cover image: Oleg Zabielin/Fotolia © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface This research examines the evolution of al Qa’ida and other Salafi- jihadist groups, as well as implications for U.S. policy. It was con- ducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secre- tary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. This work may be of interest to government officials involved in counterterrorism; academics and scholars engaged in research on ter- rorism and counterterrorism; graduate and undergraduate students of international politics; and those in the general public interested in al Qa’ida and contemporary terrorist threats. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/ isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...............................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv CHaptER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Key Definitions ..................................................................... 2 Research Design .................................................................... 4 Outline of the Report .............................................................. 5 CHaptER TWO A Decentralized Movement ..................................................... 7 A Diffuse Structure ................................................................ 9 Differing Ideological Views and Objectives ....................................12 Far Enemy Versus Near Enemy ...............................................14 Geographic Scope ...............................................................15 Attacking Shi’a ..................................................................17 Other Differences ...............................................................18 Causes of Decentralization ...................................................... 20 A Growing Vulnerability ...................................................... 23 CHaptER THREE Growing Capabilities ...........................................................25 Number and Size of Groups .................................................... 26 v vi A Persistent Threat: The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists Capabilities and Levels of Violence ............................................ 34 Core al Qa’ida and Affiliates ................................................. 34 Other Salafi Jihadists .......................................................... 38 Varied Threat to the U.S. Homeland .......................................... 40 Why the Expansion of Salafi-Jihadist Groups? ............................... 43 CHaptER FOUR Strategic Options ................................................................49 Strategy 1: Engagement ..........................................................53 Strategy 2: Forward Partnering ..................................................55 Strategy 3: Offshore Balancing ..................................................58 A Strategic Framework ...........................................................59 APPENDIX List of Salafi-Jihadist Groups ..................................................63 About the Author ................................................................67 Endnotes ...........................................................................69 Index ...............................................................................85 Figures and Tables Figures 2.1. Core al Qa’ida and Its Affiliates ....................................11 2.2. Notional Map of Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Envisioned Caliphate ..............................................................16 3.1. Number of Salafi-Jihadist Groups by Year, 1988–2013 ........ 27 3.2. Number of Salafi-Jihadists by Year, 1988–2013 ................. 27 3.3. Areas of Salafi-Jihadist Activity in Libya, 2014 ..................31 3.4. Location of Selected Salafi-Jihadist Groups in the Middle East, 2014 .............................................................32 3.5. Areas of Jabhat al-Nusrah Activity in Syria, Early 2014 ........33 3.6. Number of Attacks by al Qa’ida and Affiliates, 2007–2013 ............................................................35 3.7. Far Enemy Versus Near Enemy Attacks by al Qa’ida and Affiliates, 2007–2013 .......................................... 36 4.1. Countries of Concern for the United States ..................... 50 Tables 3.1. Examples of Salafi-Jihadist Groups That Threaten the United States .........................................................41 4.1. A Summary of Strategic Options ..................................52 A.1. List of Salafi-Jihadist Groups .......................................63 vii Summary This report examines the status and evolution of al Qa’ida and other Salafi-jihadist groups, a subject of intense debate in the West. Some argue that al Qa’ida—especially core al Qa’ida—has been severely weakened, and there is no longer a major threat to the United States from Salafi-jihadist and other terrorist groups.1 Former CIA officer Marc Sageman concluded that “al Qaeda is no longer seen as an exis- tential threat to the West” and “the hysteria over a global conspiracy against the West has faded.”2 According to University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer, “Terrorism—most of it arising from domestic
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