Al-Qaeda Shock Bri- Gades”: Assessing Russia’S Efforts to Extend the Post- September 11Th War on Terror to Chechnya
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
ON the EFFECTIVE USE of PROXY WARFARE by Andrew Lewis Peek Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 © 2021 Andrew Peek All Rights Reserved
ON THE EFFECTIVE USE OF PROXY WARFARE by Andrew Lewis Peek A dissertation submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Baltimore, Maryland May 2021 2021 Andrew Peek All rights reserved Abstract This dissertation asks a simple question: how are states most effectively conducting proxy warfare in the modern international system? It answers this question by conducting a comparative study of the sponsorship of proxy forces. It uses process tracing to examine five cases of proxy warfare and predicts that the differentiation in support for each proxy impacts their utility. In particular, it proposes that increasing the principal-agent distance between sponsors and proxies might correlate with strategic effectiveness. That is, the less directly a proxy is supported and controlled by a sponsor, the more effective the proxy becomes. Strategic effectiveness here is conceptualized as consisting of two key parts: a proxy’s operational capability and a sponsor’s plausible deniability. These should be in inverse relation to each other: the greater and more overt a sponsor’s support is to a proxy, the more capable – better armed, better trained – its proxies should be on the battlefield. However, this close support to such proxies should also make the sponsor’s influence less deniable, and thus incur strategic costs against both it and the proxy. These costs primarily consist of external balancing by rival states, the same way such states would balance against conventional aggression. Conversely, the more deniable such support is – the more indirect and less overt – the less balancing occurs. -
War Against Terrorism and the Conflict in Chechnya: a Case for Distinction
The War Against Terrorism and the Conflict in Chechnya: A Case for Distinction SVANTE E. CORNELL More than any other conflict, Chechnya epitomizes the old saying that "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter." Since the first Chechen war began in 1994, the Russian government has portrayed the war as one against ban- dits and Islamic fundamentalists. After the attacks of September 11, 2001, the label changed-now Chechens are referred to simply as "terrorists." Western states have for the most part thus far refrained from accepting the Russian position at face value, seeing the conflict primarily as an ethnic war. While recognizing Russia's territorial integrity, Western and Islamic states see the Chechen rebels as more or less legitimate representatives of the Chechen people, considering that the current Chechen president, Asian Maskhadov, was elected in elections deemed free and fair by international observers in 1997. Moreover, the international commu- nity has condemned the Russian military's massive human rights violations in the prosecution of the war. That said, during the course of the second war, which began in October 1999 and rages to this day, there has been an increasing concern with regard to the radicalization of parts of the Chechen resistance movement and its links to extremist Islamic groups in the Middle East. The attacks of September 11 introduced a new paradigm into world politics, and Chechnya has since been one of the regions most affected by the increased focus on terrorism. Indeed, it did not take long after 9/11 for the Russian government to draw comparisons between the terrorist attacks on the United States and the situa- tion in Chechnya. -
Bringing Peace to Chechnya? Assessments and Implications
Order Code RL32272 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Bringing Peace to Chechnya? Assessments and Implications Updated February 11, 2005 Jim Nichol Specialist in Russian and Eurasian Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Bringing Peace to Chechnya? Assessments and Implications Summary Russia’s then-Premier (and current President) Vladimir Putin ordered military, police, and security forces to enter the breakaway Chechnya region in September 1999, and these forces occupied most of the region by early 2000. The conflict has resulted in thousands of military and civilian casualties and the massive destruction of housing and infrastructure. Putin’s rise to power and continuing popularity have been tied at least partly to his perceived ability to prosecute this conflict successfully. In the run-up to Russian legislative elections in December 2003 and a presidential election in March 2004, Putin endeavored to demonstrate that peace had returned to the region. Since Chechen terrorists held hundreds of Moscow theater-goers hostage in late 2002, the Putin administration has appeared unequivocally opposed to talks with the rebels and more dedicated to establishing a pro-Moscow government in Chechnya. Such a government will use its own forces to battle the remaining rebels, ostensibly permitting the disengagement and withdrawal of most Russian troops from the region. This “Chechenization” of the conflict, along with related pacification efforts, constitute the main elements of the Russian government’s campaign to wind down the fighting. Pacification efforts aim to gain the support or acquiescence of the population to federal control and include rebuilding assistance and elections. -
Całość Opracowania W Formacie
OÂRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH IM. MARKA KARPIA Centre for Eastern Studies Czeczenia mi´dzy kaukaskim d˝ihadem a „ukrytym” separatyzmem Chechnya: Between a Caucasian Jihad and ‘hidden’ separatism Maciej Falkowski W arszawa, styczeƒ 2007 / Warsaw, January 2007 © Copyright by OÊrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia © Copyright by Centre for Eastern Studies Redaktor / Editor Anna ¸abuszewska Opracowanie graficzne / Graphic design Dorota Nowacka T∏umaczenie / Translation OSW / CES Wspó∏praca / Co-operation Jim Todd Wydawca / Publisher OÊrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka Karpia Centre for Eastern Studies ul. Koszykowa 6a Warszawa / Warsaw, Poland tel./phone + 48 /22/ 525 80 00 fax: +48 /22/ 525 80 40 Spis treÊci / Contents Czeczenia mi´dzy kaukaskim d˝ihadem a „ukrytym” separatyzmem / 5 Tezy / 5 Wst´p / 7 1. Od czeczeƒskiej wojny narodowowyzwoleƒczej do kaukaskiego d˝ihadu / 9 2. Polityka czeczenizacji i „ukryty” separatyzm czeczeƒski / 18 3. Próba prognozy / 32 Chechnya: Between a Caucasian Jihad and ‘hidden’ separatism / 35 Executive summary / 35 Introduction / 36 1. From the Chechen war for national liberation to a Caucasian jihad / 38 2. The policy of Chechenisation and the ‘hidden’ Chechen separatism / 47 3. A tentative forecast / 60 Czeczenia mi´dzy kaukaskim d˝ihadem a „ukrytym” separatyzmem Tezy 1. Czeczenia jest wcià˝ najbardziej niestabilnà republikà rosyjskiego Kau- kazu Pó∏nocnego. Mimo to trwajàcy tam od jesieni 1999 roku otwarty konflikt zbrojny, zwany drugà wojnà czeczeƒskà, stopniowo przygasa. IntensywnoÊç walk maleje z roku na rok, zaÊ os∏abieni wieloletnià wojnà bojownicy nie sà w stanie przejàç inicjatywy i powa˝nie zagroziç stacjo- nujàcym w republice wojskom federalnym. Obserwowane obecnie os∏a- bienie bojowników nie jest jednak równoznaczne z zakoƒczeniem kon- fliktu. -
Chechen War: Motivator for Military Reform?
WARNING! The views expressed in FMSO publications and reports are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Information Warfare in the Second (1999-Present) Chechen War: Motivator for Military Reform? by Timothy L. Thomas, Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth, KS., 2002. This article was previously published in Russian Military Reform 1992-2002 Published by Frank Cass Publishers, 2003 Chapter 11, Page 209-233 During the past ten years, the Russian military has attentively studied the subject of information war (IW). The main catalyst for this interest was the successful use of IW by coalition forces during Operation Desert Storm. Russian military theorists watched coalition planes bomb Iraqi targets in real time with precision and understood that warfare had entered a new phase, one dominated by information-based equipment and resources. Two further motivators were the poor use of IW by the Russian armed forces during the first Russian-Chechen war (1994-1996), which contributed to the loss of Russian morale, and the successful use of IW by NATO during the conflict over Kosovo. The success of the coalition forces in both Desert Storm and Kosovo indicated that military reform would be bankrupt if the technical aspect of reform did not include information-based technologies. These technologies must be imbedded into new military equipment, from sensors and radars to jet fighters and cruise missiles. However, Russia was also concerned about the impact of information technologies on the brain and consequently morale. -
THE SITUATION of Idps from CHECHNYA
WRITENET Paper No. 11 /2002 RUSSIAN FEDERATION: THE SITUATION OF IDPs FROM CHECHNYA John B. Dunlop Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution May 2002 WriteNet is a Network of Researchers and Writers on Human Rights, Forced Migration, Ethnic and Political Conflict WriteNet is a Subsidiary of Practical Management (UK) E-mail: [email protected] THIS PAPER WAS PREPARED MAINLY ON THE BASIS OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION, ANALYSIS AND COMMENT. ALL SOURCES ARE CITED. THE PAPER IS NOT, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE, EITHER EXHAUSTIVE WITH REGARD TO CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY SURVEYED, OR CONCLUSIVE AS TO THE MERITS OF ANY PARTICULAR CLAIM TO REFUGEE STATUS OR ASYLUM. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THE PAPER ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THOSE OF WRITENET OR UNHCR. ISSN 1020-8429 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction....................................................................................................3 2 The Current Political Situation in Ingushetia ............................................3 3 The Likely Return of Chechen IDPs from Ingushetia to Chechnya.........5 4 The Current Political Situation in Chechnya .............................................8 5 The Position of Inner IDPs Residing in Chechnya.....................................8 6 The Role of the UN and Other International IGOs and NGOs in Chechnya ......................................................................................................11 7 Three Scenarios for the Future ..................................................................12 8 Bibliography.................................................................................................13 -
Russian Analytical Digest No 5
No. 5 29 August 2006 rrussianussian aanalyticalnalytical ddigestigest www.res.ethz.ch www.russlandanalysen.de BESLAN – TWO YEARS AFTER ■ ANALYSIS Looking Back at Beslan. Alexander Cherkasov, Moscow 2 ■ ANALYSIS Th e North Caucasus: Taking stock two years after Beslan. Jeronim Perovic, Zurich 4 ■ TABLES AND DIAGRAMS Th e North Caucasus and the Southern Federal District: Statistics and Facts 9 ■ OPINION SURVEY Th e North Caucasus in Russian Eyes 13 ■ CHRONOLOGY Terror-related incidents in the North Caucasus September 2004 – August 2006 14 Research Centre for East CSS Center for Security Otto Wolff -Stiftung DGO European Studies, Bremen An ETH Center Studies, ETH Zurich rrussianussian aanalyticalnalytical russian analytical digest 05/06 ddigestigest Analysis Looking Back at Beslan Alexander Cherkasov, Moscow Summary Two years after the Beslan tragedy, the authorities have yet to publish a fi nal report on what took place there. Most importantly, they have refused to examine the terrorist attack within the larger context of the Chechen war. Th ey have also blamed all the deaths on the terrorists, preventing a thorough investigation examining the role of the Russian security forces and the responsibilities of the authorities. Such a study would make possible a more nuanced understanding of what happened at Beslan. Hostage-taking tragedies: Moscow’s terrorists prepare and carry out their plans? Which questionable approach administrative and law enforcement offi cials were uring the course of the Chechen wars over the responsible for this?” Th ose questions are suitable for Dlast 12 years, Beslan was the fourth large-scale prosecutors. In the wider sense, we need to address terrorist act with the taking of hostages in Russia. -
Russia, Chechnya and the OSCEA Relationship Embedded in Ambiguity UNISCI Discussion Papers, Núm
UNISCI Discussion Papers ISSN: 1696-2206 [email protected] Universidad Complutense de Madrid España Freire, Maria Raquel Matching Words with Actions: Russia, Chechnya and the OSCEA Relationship Embedded in Ambiguity UNISCI Discussion Papers, núm. 9, octubre, 2005, pp. 159-171 Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid, España Available in: http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=76700913 How to cite Complete issue Scientific Information System More information about this article Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America, the Caribbean, Spain and Portugal Journal's homepage in redalyc.org Non-profit academic project, developed under the open access initiative UNISCI DISCUSSION PAPERS Nº 9 (Octubre 2005) MATCHING WORDS WITH ACTIONS: RUSSIA, CHECHNYA AND THE OSCE – A RELATIONSHIP EMBEDDED IN AMBIGUITY AUTHOR1: MARIA RAQUEL FREIRE University of Coimbra DATE: October 2005 Introduction The post-Cold War instability in the former Soviet space allowed an enlarged involvement of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) as a promoter of dialogue and confidence in the area. Focusing on conflict prevention, crisis management and post- conflict rehabilitation as preferential areas of activity and embracing 55 states, the OSCE is the widest European security organisation, usually described as ranging from Vancouver to Vladivostok. This enlarged membership, including all former Soviet republics, has made it a privileged forum to address problems in the area, particularly through the deployment of field missions. The organisation’s activity in the former Soviet space is affected by the Russian positioning within and towards the organisation. While the OSCE has to promote its own principles and conciliatory procedures it also has to conciliate these principles, to which Russia became committed, with Russian aspirations and national interests, which in several instances have became irreconcilable goals. -
Chechnya – War and History 400 Years of Colonial Conquest – 400 Years of Resistance
Ekkehard Maaß | Bettina Kubanek Chechnya War and History 400 Years of Colonial Conquest – 400 Years of Resistance This exhibition was produced by the German-Caucasian Society An old Chechen legend A long, long time ago there was a violent storm. It plucked trees by their roots, caused rivers and seas to burst their banks and razed mountains flat. It was so violent that all living beings fled before it. None resis- ted but a lone wolf, who stood fast on all four legs to spite the storm. The storm grew angry, tearing the wolf’s hide from his body in tatters and biting him until his blood ran, and yet the wolf would not flinch from where he stood… for he had no other home but this and refused to abandon it, however great the misfortune that befell it. Chechnya – War and History 400 Years of Colonial Conquest – 400 Years of Resistance When Chechnya left the Soviet Union in 1991 to declare independence, its prospects were just as real as those of former Soviet republics in the Baltic, South Caucasus and Asia. Never did the Chechens imagine that their country would be totally destroyed by air raids and artillery fire during two Russian wars while Western democracies, for the most part, stood by. 200,000 dead, the plight of refugees, concentration camps, purges and cruel torture have uprooted Chechen society and driven people to a despair that makes them increasingly unpredictable. The spread of the conflict throughout the North Caucasus and its devastat- ing impact on Russian society itself should be a cause for deep concern among the governments of Europe. -
Islamists and Nationalists Online Appendix
Islamists and Nationalists Online Appendix Online Appendix: “Islamists and Nationalists” October 30, 2014 Contents 1 North Caucasus Violent Events Data 2 1.1 Automated event coding . .2 1.2 Actors . .3 1.3 Tactics . .9 1.4 Targets . .9 1.5 A four-tiered typology of Islamist violence........................9 1.6 A two-tiered typology of government violence...................... 15 1.7 Reliability of automated event coding . 16 2 Variable descriptions for aggregated data 18 2.1 Geographic locations and dates . 18 2.2 Conflict dynamics . 19 2.3 Control variables . 21 3 Summary statistics 22 4 Regression tables, robustness checks and matching balance 27 4.1 Autologistic regressions (all four definitions) . 27 4.2 Matched Analysis . 36 4.3 Sensitivity Analysis: Alternative Model Specifications . 42 4.4 Sensitivity Analysis: Time Effects . 47 4.5 Sensitivity Analysis: Local and Federal Forces . 56 4.6 Sensitivity Analysis: Alternative Definitions of Selective Tactics . 58 1 Islamists and Nationalists Online Appendix 1 North Caucasus Violent Events Data We use a new dataset of violent incidents in the Russian North Caucasus. The panel dataset is based on monthly observations across 7,584 municipalities in 200 districts (rayons) of the seven autonomous republics of the North Caucasus, and two adjacent regions (oblasts).1 The sample of villages and towns is universal, encompassing all populated places within these regions, as listed in the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s GEOnet Names Server (GNS). For each week between July 2000 and December 2011, we measured the incidence and number of violent events in each village through automated text mining of the independent Memorial Group’s “Hronika nasiliya [Chronicle of Violence]” event summaries (Memorial, 2009). -
General Assembly Distr.: General 28 October 2004 English Original: Russian
United Nations A/59/538 General Assembly Distr.: General 28 October 2004 English Original: Russian Fifty-ninth session Agenda item 148 Measures to eliminate international terrorism Letter dated 27 October 2004 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General I have the honour to transmit herewith the text of the statement by the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on international cooperation to combat terrorism (see annex). I should be grateful if you would have this statement distributed as a document of the General Assembly under agenda item 148. (Signed) Andrey Denisov 04-57739 (E) 021104 041104 *0457739* A/59/538 Annex to the letter dated 27 October 2004 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations addressed to the Secretary-General Statement by the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on international cooperation to combat terrorism The unprecedented and inhuman terrorist acts committed in the Russian Federation have elicited a huge wave of manifestations of solidarity with the people of the Russian Federation. The State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation expresses its deep gratitude to all national parliaments, international organizations, State and public figures and peoples of foreign States that voiced their sympathy for our country and were with us at a difficult moment. The Russian Federation appreciates this help and cherishes its friends. State Duma deputies are convinced that the internationalization of terrorism must now be countered by the internationalization of efforts to suppress it. -
"Ethnic War, Holy War, War O' War: Does the Adjective Matter In
University of California, Berkeley Ethnic War, Holy War, War O’ War: Does the Adjective Matter in Explaining Collective Political Violence? Edward W. Walker Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies Working Paper Series This PDF document preserves the page numbering of the printed version for accuracy of citation. When viewed with Acrobat Reader, the printed page numbers will not correspond with the electronic numbering. The Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies (BPS) is a leading center for graduate training on the Soviet Union and its successor states in the United States. Founded in 1983 as part of a nationwide effort to reinvigorate the field, BPS’s mission has been to train a new cohort of scholars and professionals in both cross-disciplinary social science methodology and theory as well as the history, languages, and cultures of the former Soviet Union; to carry out an innovative program of scholarly research and publication on the Soviet Union and its successor states; and to undertake an active public outreach program for the local community, other national and international academic centers, and the U.S. and other governments. Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies University of California, Berkeley Institute of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies 260 Stephens Hall #2304 Berkeley, California 94720-2304 Tel: (510) 643-6737 [email protected] http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~bsp/ Ethnic War, Holy War, War O’ War: Does the Adjective Matter in Explaining Collective Political Violence? Edward W. Walker Spring 2006 Edward W. Walker is Executive Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet and Post-Soviet Studies and Adjunct Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley.