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Energy Resources ___.Cornucopia Or Empty Barrel? EnergyResource s�___.cornucopia or Empty Barrel?t Peter J. McCabe2 ABSTRACT fuels are driven more by demand than by the geo­ logic abundance of the resource. Over the last 25 yr, considerable debate has con­ Examination of some energy resources with tinued about the future supply of fossil fuel. On well-documented histories leads to two conceptual one side are those who believe we are rapidly models that relate production to price. The closed­ depleting resources and that the resulting short­ market model assumes that there is only one source ages will have a profound impact on society. On of energy available. Although the price initially may the other side are those who see no impending cri­ fall because of economies of scale long term, prices sis because long-term trends are for cheaper prices rise as the energy source is depleted and it despite rising production. The concepts of becomes progressively more expensive to extract. resources and reserves have historically created By contrast, the open-market model assumes that considerable misunderstanding in the minds of there is a variety of available energy sources and many nongeologists. Hubbert-type predictions of that competition among them leads to long-term energy production assume that there is a finitesup­ stable or falling prices. At the moment, the United ply of energy that is measurable; however, esti­ States and the world approximate the open-market mates of resources and reserves are inventories of model, but in the long run the supply of fossil fuel the amounts of a fossil fuel perceived to be avail­ is finite, and prices inevitably will rise unless alter­ able over some future period of time. As those nate energy sources substitute for fossil energy sup­ resources/reserves are depleted over time, addi­ plies; however, there appears little reason to sus­ tional amounts of fossil fuels are inventoried. pect that long-term price trends will rise Throughout most of this century, for example, significantly over the next few decades. crude oil reserves in the United States have repre­ sented a 10-14-yr supply. For the last 50 yr, resource crude oil estimates have represented INTRODUCTION about a 60-70-yr supply for the United States. Division of reserve or resource estimates by cur­ The supply and price of energy over the next rent or projected annual consumption therefore is century will have a profound impact on nations, circular in reasoning and can lead to highly erro­ the energy industry, and the geoscience profes­ neous conclusions. Production histories of fossil sions. Anticipation of future trends determines investment strategies, play portfolios, research directions, career decisions, and government poli­ cies. In this paper, I do not precisely predict the IC>Copyright 1998. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved. future, but rather I examine historic trends and •Manuscript received September 9, 1997; revised manuscript received clarify the foundations on which one may build April 8, 1998; final acceptance May 28, 1998. one's own predictions. 2U.S. Geological Survey, Federal Center MS 939, Denver, Colorado 80225; e-mail: [email protected] The future availability of fossil energy resources I wish to thank the following individuals: Donald L. Gautier, U.S. has been much debated over the last 25 yr (see, for Geological Survey, who first suggested the warehouse concept of resources to me; Keith W. Shanley, Amoco Production Company, with whom I had example, Polesetsky, 1991; Myers and Simon, 1994). several discussions of recent trends in the petroleum industry; Kevin M. On one side are the "neo-Malthusians; who perceive Pickup, The Coal Authority (U.K.), who provided recent information on British that current trends of energy production are not sus­ coal resources; and Duncan Millard, U.K. Department of Trade and Industry, for providing data on British coal prices. The manuscript benefited tainable, and who foresee that we will soon run out significantly from the reviews of Keith W. Shanley (Amoco Production of energy resources. On the other side are the "cor­ Company), John B. Curtis (Colorado School of Mines), Joseph R. Studlick, nucopians," who believe that there is no scarcity of Jr. (UNOCAL), and the following U.S. Geological Survey reviewers: Donald L. Gautier, James W. Schmoker, Michael D. Lewan, Gordon L. Dolton, and energy resources and that, over time, energy Katherine L. Varnes. This paper is published with approval of the director of resources will become more widely available at the U.S. Geological Survey, but the interpretations and opinions presented are mine, not those of the U.S. Geological Survey, whose scientists have lower costs. These opposing viewpoints on energy diverse opinions on this and most other subjects. resources are part of larger differences in perception 2110 AAPG Bulletin, V. 82, No. 11 (November 1998), P. 2110-2134. McCabe 2111 that are fundamental to many of society's concerns relationship betweenpopulation and resources pub­ and political differences in the 1990s. The neo­ lished at the beginning of the 19th century. Britain, Malthusians, for example, claim that the planet can­ for example, faced major shortages of firewood in not sustain the rapid population growth and econom­ the early 14th and 16th centuries; these shortages ic progress of the last few decades. Unless current resulted in rising firewood prices (Hatcher, 1993). trends are halted or reversed, they anticipate that Worries of running out of petroleum appear to have there will be major famines, shortages of natural begun shortly after commercial production started resources, and environmental degradation that will in 1859. In the United States, at least six oil-shortage be devastating to the human race. Holders of this scares took place in the firsthalf of the 20th century, viewpoint commonly argue for birth control, conser­ with shortages blamed on factors ranging from the vation of resources, and preservation of the environ­ development of the Model T to Britain's supposed ment. They tend to argue for more government regu­ goal of dominating the world petroleum market lation and policy to achieve those goals. By contrast, (Fanning, 1950). The tremendous growth in energy the cornucopians have no such concerns and may production after World War II led to renewed fears believe that the quality of life will be raised as the that fossil fuel supplies would be exhausted, with world population increases. Holders of this view­ consequent detrimental impact on society. Meadows point tend to argue against contraception, to believe et al. (1972), in their report for the Club of Rome, that free markets will ensure an abundant supply of argued that the growth in world population, indus­ resources, and to believe that environmental con­ trial production, use of fertilizers, and use of most cerns have been greatly exaggerated. They argue for natural resources w�s exponential, and that such less government. Much of the neo-Malthusian/cornu­ growth was impossible to sustain. Meadows et al. copian debate on energy resources has been, and (1972) regarded energy resources as fmite and calcu­ inevitably will be, dominated by nongeologists. lated the years at which fossil energy would be Consequently, geologists must communicate their depleted according to three scenarios (Table 1), scientific work in a way that allows others to gain a which have proven to be overly pessimistic; howev­ better appreciation of the nature of energy er, the 1974 Arab oil embargo focused the public's resources. In this paper, I intend to question some attention on energy resources and, for many, gave long-held beliefs of both the neo-Malthusian and cor­ instant credibility to the Club of Rome report. nucopian camps. Perspectives in the paper also may The early 1970s also saw the peak of U.S. crude challenge some common notions held among many oil production. This peak had been predicted by geologists. Hubbert (1956, 1969). Hubbert's predictions were Assessments of fossil energy resources are done based on a model of a cycle of production of finite by many organizations, such as federal geological energy resources (Figure 1), and his methodology surveys, state and provincial surveys, government is discussed at length in following sections of this departments of energy, land use agencies, energy paper. Today, the neo-Malthusian viewpoint is companies, and consultants. Results of these assess­ widely held by society and is strongly pushed by ments are used for such diverse purposes as devis­ the environmental movement that uses phrases ing foreign policy, setting taxation levels, planning such as "sustainable development" and "the plan­ land use, and developing investment strategies. et's carrying capacity," and by advocates of alter­ Assessments therefore are perhaps the most impor­ nate energy sources [e.g., Flavin and Lenssen tant way in which geologists convey information (1994)]. This viewpoint also is held by many scien­ derived from their science to nongeologists who tists [e.g., Bartlett (1986, 1994), Campbell (1997), make critical decisions that affect the general pub­ and Edwards (1997)]. As t.he N a tiona! Research lic. Without understanding the basis of the esti­ Council Committee on the Status and Research mates of an assessment, decision-makers are in sig­ Opportunities in the Solid-Earth Sciences claimed nificant danger of misusing the resource numbers. in 1993 (National Research Council Committee on In this paper, I suggest ways in which geologists the Status an� Research Opportunities in the Solid­ might better communicate information on energy Earth Sciences, 1993, p. 297), "It is only a matter resources to nongeologists. of time until global shortages of petroleum resources develop." RATIONALES FOR NEO-MALTHUSIANAND CORNUCOPIAN VIEWPOINTS Cornucopian Viewpoint Neo-Malthusian Viewpoint Although many people have worried about ener­ gy resource depletion and argued for conservation, Concern about depletion of energy resources many others have bought large cars, turned up the almost certainly predates Malthus's studies of the air conditioning, and voted against subsidies for 2112 Cornucopia or EmptyBarrel? Tab le 1.
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