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Politecnico Di Torino POLITECNICO DI TORINO I Facoltà di Ingegneria Corso di Laurea in Ingegneria Energetica e Nucleare Master of Science Thesis CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE BASIS Models and Scenarios for Climate and Energy future development Supervisor: Prof. Massimo Zucchetti Dr. Raffaella Testoni Candidate: Matteo Grittani July 2019 2 3 Abstract According to the Planet “vital signs”, climate is changing mainly due to anthropogenic factors. This work aims to address the main aspects of climate change with a strict approach, starting from its mechanisms and impacts on life, switching to mitigation and adaptation actions, going through the most updated scientific literature. Seven climate development scenarios are worked out using Java Climate Model (JCM). Global Mean Temperature (GMT) started to increase in 1880, getting momentum: 2016, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2014 are the “top five” warmest years on records. 2019 is on track to be the new third. The anomaly w.r.t. 1880 ranges from 0.74 °C to 0.94 °C. Arctic Sea Ice Minimum (ASIM) lowest was 3.8- 3.9 Mkm2 in 2012, 4 Mkm2 lower than the ‘80s values. ASIM “top five” smallest occurred between 2015 and 2019 and its average extent diminishing rate is 12.8% per year. Antarctica and Greenland keep losing mass since 2002. W.r.t. then Antarctica lost 1,870 (± 175) Gt, while Greenland lost 3,771 (± 98) Gt, dropping now by 127 (± 39) and 286 (± 21) Gt per year respectively. The cumulative glacier mass balance - negative 63 of the last 68 years - shows a 20 m water equivalent (w.e.) loss from 1980 and is currently falling by 847-1,036 mm w.e. per year. The 93% (17x1022 J) of the excess heat produced since 1970 has been absorbed by oceans, increasing their top 700 m temperature by 0.09-0.13 °C per decade. Global Marine Sea Level (GMSL) increased by 235 (± 5) mm w.r.t. 1880 as a result. Never has the atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeded 300 ppm during the last 1 Myear, but it started to climb from 311 ppm in 1950 to the today’s 414.83 ppm. These Planet’s alterations are producing several impacts on natural systems. Replacing fossil fuel demand with a renewable-based one, together with energy efficiency improvement and demand reduction are the most effective impact mitigation strategies. Nevertheless, a certain grade of modification in Planet’s life due to climate change is likely, so crucial are adaptation actions too including smart planning of cities, preservation of ecosystems and literacy work on the perception of climate change. Projections about future climate are made using climate models. Through econometric, demographic and energy assumptions, they provide estimates gathered in scenarios, then checked against real observations. The outputs from the main ones show strong correlation towards a further warming in the year to come. Among the scenarios provided, three “normative” Stabilization ones (ST1.5 ST2.0 and ST3.0) aim to stabilize the GMT increase to 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C by 2100. Three “predictive” scenarios focus on the energy system evolution, with the first two Current Policies accounting for a fossil-based one (CP1) and a more balanced one (CP2), and the New Policies Scenario (NPS) including climate policies announced after COP 21. The last “exploratory” Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) models the most preferable future possible, with social equity, fast energy transition, cleaner air and water. Looking at the results, the only two scenarios not exceeding 2.0 °C are ST1.5 and SDS. The sole SDS shows a peak-and-decline GMT trend, meaning that according to the others the GMT rise will continue after 2100. Given the current socio-economic, energy and demographic conditions seems extremely unlikely not to exceed the 1.5-2.0 °C increase in GMT by 2100. Science has never been clearer than now. Climate change is no more ignorable. 4 Summary CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 9 - 1.1 - What is going on ............................................................................................................. 10 - 1.2 - The effects of a changing climate .................................................................................... 10 - 1.3 - Science versus... ............................................................................................................... 12 - 1.4 - The counteractions .......................................................................................................... 13 - 1.5 - The future: climate models, IEA and IPCC’s scenarios ...................................................... 14 - 1.6 - Seven different scenarios ................................................................................................. 15 CHAPTER 2 - PHYSICAL FOUNDATIONS ..................................................................................................... 17 - 2.1.1 - The Sun .............................................................................................................................. 19 - 2.1.2 - The Earth ........................................................................................................................... 20 - 2.2 – THE EARTH’S GLOBAL ENERGY BUDGET (GEB) ............................................................... 20 - 2.2.1 - Inflows ............................................................................................................................... 21 - 2.2.2 - Outflows ............................................................................................................................ 21 - 2.3 - CLIMATE DYNAMICS: CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, FEEDBACKS AND CONTROL ..................... 23 - 2.3.1 - Climate feedbacks............................................................................................................. 23 - 2.3.2 – Reflectivity: a focus........................................................................................................... 24 - 2.3.2.1 - Non-natural perturbations on reflectivity ................................................................. 26 - 2.4 - THE GEOLOGICAL BACKDROP......................................................................................... 27 - 2.4.1 – Earth’s orbital periodicities influence .............................................................................. 28 - 2.5 – GREENHOUSE GASES: STOCKS AND FLOWS................................................................... 32 - 2.5.1 - The GHG effect ................................................................................................................. 32 - 2.5.2 - The carbon cycle ............................................................................................................... 34 - 2.5.2.1 - Atmosphere-Biosphere exchange ............................................................................. 35 - 2.5.2.2 - Atmosphere-Oceans Exchange ................................................................................. 35 - 2.5.2.3 - Atmosphere-Geosphere Exchange ........................................................................... 35 - 2.6 – SOMETHING NEW AFTER THE FIRST INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION....................................... 35 - 2.6.1 - Human perturbations on carbon cycle ............................................................................ 36 - 2.6.2 - Carbon cycle responses .................................................................................................... 39 - 2.6.2.1 - Vegetation feedback ................................................................................................. 39 - 2.6.2.2 - Forest Fires.................................................................................................................. 39 - 2.6.2.3 - Permafrost feedback .................................................................................................. 39 - 2.6.2.4 - Oceans: Stabilizers – CaCO3...................................................................................... 39 - 2.6.2.5 - Silicate weathering .................................................................................................... 40 - 2.6.3 - The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum ..................................................................... 40 - 2.7 - ANTHROPOGENIC VERSUS NATURAL INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE: METRICS FOR THE ATTRIBUTION OF THE BURDEN ........................................................................................................ 41 5 - 2.7.1 - The radiative forcing concept........................................................................................... 41 - 2.7.2 - Anthropogenic Drivers ...................................................................................................... 42 - 2.7.3 - Natural Drivers ................................................................................................................... 42 - Focus 1 – Global Warming Potential vs Global Temperature change Potential ......................... 42 CHAPTER 3 - PAST AND FUTURE: OBESRVED CHANGES AND CLIMATE MODELS ................................. 45 - 3.1 - OBSERVED CHANGES IN RECENT PAST AND DRIVERS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ............... 46 - 3.1.1 - Temperature ...................................................................................................................... 46 - 3.1.2 - Ocean warming and rising sea levels............................................................................... 47 - 3.1.3 - The Cryosphere ................................................................................................................
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