Revista de Relaciones Internacionales, Estrategia y Seguridad ISSN: 1909-3063 [email protected] Universidad Militar Nueva Granada Colombia
Praj, Dusan; Restrepo, Juan Carlos THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM Revista de Relaciones Internacionales, Estrategia y Seguridad, vol. 12, núm. 1, enero- junio, 2017, pp. 51-72 Universidad Militar Nueva Granada Bogotá, Colombia
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THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM*
Dusan Praj** Juan Carlos Restrepo***
Abstract
The article looks at the new challenges the assertive Chinese foreign policy is representing for the regional geopolitical order in Asia. It follows the recent developments in the region mainly regarding the territorial disputes in the South China Sea and examines how the pressure in the regions are pushing China to look for other directions to its geopolitical projections, mainly toward the West implementing 12 (1). the New Silk Road project and deepening the cooperation with Russia. Meanwhile, the strong US presence in the Asian Pacific region was a guarantee of a “long peace” for more than 50 years. The lasting geopolitical order is changing due to the constant rise
* This paper is the result of a Research Project called “The Macroeconomic transition in China: 5 hypotheses” conducted by the Facultad de Estudios Internacionales at Institución Universitaria Esumer - Medellín. The work is co-authored and the order in which the authors are mentioned is strictly alphabetic. ** MA in International Relations, University of Comenius, Bratislava- Slovakia. Associate Professor at Institución Universitaria Esumer, : 11 de abril 2016 : Praj, D., Restrepo, J. C. (2016). The geopolitics of the chinese C. (2016). Restrepo, J. : Praj, D., Medellín-Colombia. [email protected] *** MA in Marketing, Universidad de Manizales, Colombia. Associate Professor. Institución Universitaria Esumer, Medellín-Colombia. [email protected]. pp. 51-72. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18359/ries.2464 Recibido Evaluado: : 15 de julio 2016 Aprobado : 9 de septiembre 2016 Artículo de revisión Referencia reform. Revista de Relaciones Internacionales, Estrategia y Seguridad . 52 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD of the Chinese economy and the increasing on its military spending, challenging other Asian regional powers like India and Japan to counterbalance the Chinese influence in the region, and effectively engaging other partners like Malaysia and Philippines. China is now proposing a multidirectional attitude, trying to develop the relations towards the East as well as to the states westwards from its own borders.
Key words: Geopolitics, Territorial Disputes, Asia Pacific, China
LA GEOPOLÍTICA DE LA REFORMA CHINA
Resumen
El artículo analiza los nuevos desafíos que la enérgica política exterior China representa para el orden geopolítico regional de Asia. Sigue los recientes cambios en la región sobre todo en lo que concierne a las disputas territoriales en el Mar del Sur de China y examina la manera en la que presión en las regiones empuja a China a mirar en otras direcciones para sus proyecciones geopolíticas, especialmente hacia Occidente al implementar el proyecto de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda y profundizando la cooperación con Rusia. Al mismo tiempo, la fuerte presencia de los Estados Unidos en la región del Pacífico Asiático fue durante más de 50 años una garantía de “paz larga”. El duradero orden político está cambiando debido al constante ascenso de la economía china y al incremento de su gasto militar, desafiando a otros poderes regionales asiáticos como India y Japón a contrarrestar la influencia china en la región, y a eficazmente involucrar a otros socios como Malasia y Filipinas. China está actualmente proponiendo una actitud multidireccional, intentando desarrollar las relaciones con Oriente al igual que con los estados al occidente de sus propias fronteras
Palabras clave: Geopolítica, disputas territoriales, Pacífico Asiático, China.
A GEOPOLÍTICA DA REFORMA CHINA
Resumo
O artigo analisa os novos desafios que a energética política exterior da China representa para a ordem geopolítico regional da Ásia. Continua as recentes mudanças na região sobre tudo no que se diz respeito as disputas territoriais
THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 12 N.° 1 - Enero-junio 53 no Mar do Sul da China e examina a maneira e pressão nas regiões, empurram a China a olhar em outras direções para as suas projeções geopolíticas, especialmente para o Ocidente, ao realizar o projeto da Nova Rota da Seda e aprofundando a cooperação com a Rússia. Ao mesmo tempo a forte presença dos Estados Unidos na região do Pacífico Asiático foi durante mais de 50 anos uma garantia da “longa paz ”. A duradeira ordem política está sendo mudada devido ao constante aumento da economia China e ao incremento do seu gasto militar, desafiando a outros poderes regionais asiáticos como Índia e Japão, a contrariar a influência china na região e a satisfatoriamente envolver a outros sócios como Malásia e Filipinas. China está atualmente propondo uma atitude multidirecional, tentando desenvolver as relações com o Oriente, ao igual que com os estados ao ocidente de suas próprias fronteiras.
Palavras-chave: Geopolítica, disputas territoriais, Pacífico Asiático, China.
Introduction the “near abroad”, and at the same time promoting deeper economic The purpose of this paper is to explain cooperation with central Asian and the recent geopolitical developments European countries denominated as in Asia during the Chinese reform’s “Beijing consensus” and expressed upturn. The main argument is that mainly by the project of the New Silk the world will have to accept the new Road. The ruling balance in the Asian Chinese role in the global order and get Pacific, based on the USA’s military used to the more assertive and flexible supremacy and its alliance system, Chinese geopolitical projections in could be effective in the future, but order to achieve its strategic goals. the rising nationalist and populist Even if China is generally considered tensions in Asia could spark a local a status quo power with little interest conflict that could have lasting impacts in changing the global order, the not only on the affected region, but geopolitical projection outwards its due to the growing interdependence own territory is a natural step in the of the Chinese economic cooperation development of Chinese strategic the overall polarization could not thinking. After a long period of Chinese be avoided. In contrast, a regional soft power promoted by growing multilateral forum of negotiations trade exchanges with the states of would be a more reliable tool for the Asia Pacific region, China is taking region’s stability, the creation of which the steps to develop the capability is due to the growing tensions still not to actively protect its interests in actual.
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The changing character of the sustainability of those projects rely geopolitical order more on their economic superiority. The United States’ global GDP (Gross There is no doubt that the Domestic Product) share was 17.1 % unprecedented rise of the Chinese in 2011. In contrast, the Chinese’s economy since the 1978 reforms was 14.9 % (and it keeps constantly will cause a huge impact on the increasing). According to Bloomberg distribution of power among the News Agency, China surpassed the states in the international system. In US economy in the power purchasing broader terms, the Chinese economic parity measure in 2014, and by miracle will bring a reconfiguration 2024, it may reach the position of the current geopolitical order not of the world’s biggest economy only to the Asia - Pacific region but the (Bloomberg, 2014). This is followed impact will be perceived on a global by China’s increasing participation in scale as well. One thing seems to be international trade: seven of the ten clear: what the world is witnessing is a most important container ports are remarkable economic transformation. now located in China; meaning that The number of people engaged in the more than half of the world’s annual modern global economy has doubled merchant fleets pass through the in the past two decades and could straits of Malacca, Sunda Lombok and double again in the next few decades Makassar (Stratfor,2014). (White, 2009). Consequently, the largest increase of economic activities China’s upsurge presents a challenge in any comparable period in history to the US on a field on which it has can be observed; this is so as huge not been confronted for the last 50 populations around the world have years: the unrestricted economic moved from low-productivity to high- supremacy; this presents a completely productivity forms of work. It can be new situation to deal with. In the same assumed that the volume of these sense, China’s growing economic revolutionary changes bring implicitly power can reshape the global order a transformation of the economic by defying the position of the United weight of states (Genereux, 2016). States in the new century’s economic and strategic gravity centre: Asia. In the period after World War II, it was largely assumed that the dominant China’s growing economic weight is the factor for the geostrategic supremacy only relevant power that could possibly was the military capacity of the states; erode the US’ strategic dominance in however, there is a recent need the Western Pacific; a region marked for correcting this assumption. The by a long period of peace (practically, decisive component of the geopolitical the last mayor war was Vietnam’s, projection of the states and the which ended in 1975) that underwent
THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 12 N.° 1 - Enero-junio 55 few short regional conflicts1. Despite (Mearsheimer, 2014), and Hugh White the recent economic slowdown with (White, 2009) point out that the most its serious global implications, China important factor of state survival is its continues in its actual foreign policy, ability to acquire as much power as as a part of the Chinese Communist possible, in the military, the economic, Party legitimacy rests partially on the and the social spheres. During this promise of “the great rejuvenation of process, the rising power is naturally the Chinese nation”, a concept that challenging the ruling hegemonic inherently incorporates the current power and this challenge can reach trade policy with its more assertive the point of “strategic competition”, stand to the territorial claims in East increasing directly the possibility of a and South China Sea, and even with conflict between the hegemon and a slowdown China has the resources the rising power, approach commonly and motivation to continue growing known as “The Chinese Threat its military budget. (CFR, 2016) The Theory” (Tiezzi, 2014). In order to main question for the future would be support this theory, many historical whether the Chinese rise may actually examples can be taken to support it; be considered a peaceful process or from the Peloponnesian War between there would be a certain probability Sparta and Athens to the Great Britain of some sort of armed struggle - Germany conflict and the Cold War between China and the US. There is bipolar order (Husenicova 2012). The no clear answer to this question and same author admits that the Chinese the possible scenario for the future economic rise could lead to some development of the Sino-US relations regional conflicts but the qualitative is an object of the intensive study transformation of the Chinese society, and case studies both in the US and as a natural consequence of the China (Zhong, Finkelstein). According quantitative changes, would serve to the US’s point of view, three main as a prevention from China’s conflict approaches can be distinguished potential. (Husenicova, 2012). concerning this question from three different theorists’ perspectives: the The exceptionalists view of the primacists, the exceptionalists, and the issue is quite different.2 Their main pragmatists (Evans, 2011). Primacist argument is that: Eastern Asia is a scholars such as Aaron L. Friedberg particular part of the world where (Friedberg, 2011), John J. Mearsheimer “China’s peaceful rise is possible
1 such as the China - Vietnam war in 1979 2 Represented by David Kang, William H. Overholt, Kenneth D. Johnson
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because a regional exceptionalism structures and initiatives) could be a in general and a Chinese powerful factor for the regional stability exceptionalism in particular have (Evans, 2011). the potential to avoid an Asian Europe” (Evans, 2011, p.92). Scholar John Ikenberry states that Asian Regional Order the ruling liberal order of the world will have a direct impact on China Considering all these different theoretical in terms of increasing its economic approaches, it can be observed that interdependence and that the from a geopolitical point of view, “The possible conflict would be a clear Asian Theater” raises very complex lose-lose enterprise for each side, so questions for the future. According to the clear aim should be to maintain Buzan (2012), there are four key trends, peace in these relations (Sarkisyan, which define the current decade in the 2014) Asia Pacific Region: the ongoing rise of China and India, the weakening “The pragmatists’ school”, including of the US, the ongoing struggle over different scholars such as Amitav defining an Asian regional identity, and Acharya or Robert S. Ross, stresses the emergence of balancing against that the strong alliance system China. All of them are working on the (backed by the soft regional economic intertwined base. For example, the interdependence represented mainly hardening of Beijing’s positions on by ASEAN’s regional economic issues regarding the number of disputed
Figure 1: The share of the Chinese GDP as of the world total
Source: Allen, 2013
THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 12 N.° 1 - Enero-junio 57 areas in Southern China’s sea (like the was the emphasis on a “peaceful rise” Spratley Islands or Senkaku / Diaoyu and “harmonious world.” In practice, since 2008), has helped to keep the US China’s foreign policy during the presence in the area. It has also helped post-Cold War years has been geared to increase its influence through the towards adapting to the imperatives intention of creating a new net of allies of deepening into the economic (or strengthening the existing one); globalization, cultivating its acceptance despite of Washington’s weakening on abroad and bringing about to change its the international stage. regional and international status quo as its domestic and international paths are However, there has been a large legitimized (Deng, 2009). Nevertheless, number of positive results as well. despite all the power debate, China has Since the 1978 reforms, China has demonstrated a very flexible capacity integrated itself successfully in the to align, de-align, and realign during regional Asian organizations, which the years of the Cold War rather than pursue free trade agreements with accept the constraining bipolar logic the member states of ASEAN. It also of the period. After its initial strong joined the World Trade Organization alignment with the Soviet Union, Beijing in 2001 supported strongly by the broke away from Moscow in the early US. It subsequently started to buy 1960s and drew closer to Washington US bonds in exchange for accessing by the early 1970s. As concerns about the US market; China also took an the unipolar power configuration important part in the anti-piracy emerged in the 2000s, Beijing, once joint operations in the Indian Ocean again, sought to establish a partnership (Buzan, 2012). The Chinese position with Moscow (Mohan, 2013). This in the Six-Party Talks (the talks among fact seemed to be deepening during the two Koreas, Japan, China, Russia the recent Ukraine crisis. The growing and the US, which aim to find peaceful need for commodities (having Russia resolutions to the concerns regarding as the closest basin of vital supplies) the North Korean Nuclear Program) effectively pushes these two countries is a constructive contribution to together despite of the various conflicts the negotiation. This is so, although they have had to and will have to the process has not concluded yet face in a foreseeable future (such as through a comprehensive agreement Russia’s decreasing demography and (due to the launching of North Korean the Chinese illegal migration to Russia’s satellites and underground nuclear far east resourceful territories (Sieren, device detonations) (Panda, 2014). 2014). The Chinese’s assertiveness rise can be described as a quite recent trend. The However, Southern East Asia’s regional main objective and doctrine pursued configuration of the relations are by China in the post-Cold War era shaped differently. For a long period
Dusan Praj - Juan Carlos Restrepo 58 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD after the Deng reforms, China has been original lines of the organization to trying to maintain good relations with exclude the US, bring in Russia, and link its Southern East Asian neighbours due China to Central Asia. (Putz, 2016) The to various factors. In the early 1990s, observers create crosslinks to South Asia after the violent suppression of the and the Middle East connecting China Tiananmen Square protest movement, with important sources of commodities the Western countries temporarily and their export markets, amplifying imposed sanctions on China. This the scope of the Chinese geopolitical measure allowed China to strengthen projections to the areas of its vital the orientation to the Eastern and interest (Buzan, 2012). South Eastern Asia countries. Likewise, during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Nevertheless, it cannot be denied it was China that offered a substantial that there have been crises as well, part of the support to the most affected traditionally between China and Taiwan. countries: Thailand and Indonesia This complex relationship reached its (MacDonald, 2016). crunch point in 1996 during the Taiwan Strait crisis. In this, China conducted a series of missile tests in the waters Chinese role in Asia surroundings the islands, in an alleged attempt to exert an influence over the It should not be omitted the increasing Taiwanese domestic policies (which activity China is exerting in the indicated to stay away from China at framework of the Shanghai Cooperation that moment) (McDevitt, 2014). Organization (SCO). The SCO was established in 2001 and its members are However, relations between China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China and Taiwan have improved Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, but India, considerably since those incidents. Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Mongolia, and China became Taiwan’s number one Turkmenistan are observers. Although trade partner, substituting their direct the activity of this organization seemed competition status for less aggressive to be more stagnant recently, the economic policies (Meltzer, 2014). summer summit hold in Tashkent in Although China is trying to attract June 2016 brought two very important Taiwan by promoting the “One state: steps, the full- fledged membership two systems” policy (successfully of India and Pakistan and the future implemented in Hong Kong and possible admission of Iran, just in Macao)3, Taiwan does not seem to be
3 Two territories of continental China in the colonial possession of Great Britain and Portugal respectively, transferred back to the Chinese administration in 1997 and 1999, which enjoy a special economic status under the Chinese administration.
THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 12 N.° 1 - Enero-junio 59 eager to join the PRC even under those geopolitical point of view, it represents conditions. The signature of the Cross- one of the major challenges for the Strait Service Trade Agreement (June future in the region. Despite of the 25th, 2013) between China and Taiwan broad area of cooperation between with the aim of liberalizing service China and India, there is a record of trade between those two countries tensioned relations, mainly due to sparked a strong protest movement the mutual border issues known as (denominated “The Sunflower Student the McMahon line. The privileged Movement”) (Smith, 2015). On March geographical position of India was 19th, 2014, the movement occupied already very well described by the the Taiwanese parliament looking for late Lord Curzon, British Viceroy, at the agreement to get unratified (Cole, the beginning of the 20th century. He 2014). This is effectively showing that wrote that Indian’s ‘‘central position despite of the new chapter in the in Asia means that the country can bilateral relations, there is still presence exert influence in many directions— of the complex dark past. on Persia (nowadays Iran), Afghanistan and China—while controlling the sea routes to Australasia and the China The Triangle of Power Seas.” (Cited by Evans, 2010, p. 105).
Other complex affairs seem to affect According to the famous Indian the relations between China and its political analyst Raja Mohan, for strong regional pairs India and Japan. some sectors of the Indian foreign As Buzan states: policy elite that have long dreamt of a powerful role of India in its surroundings, Curzon remains a source “The key to greater strategic interaction of foreign policy inspiration (Mohan, between South and East Asia is how 2004). To put it in other words, there the rise of India and China play both is a big chance that this dream now into each other and into the existing could come true. The economic rise set of US alliances and engagements in of the Asian giant during the last 24 Asia. years increases hope for New Delhi’s policymakers (surely causing scrutiny There is now quite a lot of evidence from the Chinese counterparts). Due for the building up of a definite, if still to the growing Chinese influence in quite low key, strategic interaction the region, India is betting now a lot (rivals rather than enemies) between on a counter-balance through the India and China.” (Buzan, 2012, p. 8). creation of a closer relationship with the US since 2000; as a result, we The accelerated rise of India is another have the recognition of India’s nuclear Asian successful story but from the status through the US-Indian Nuclear
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Agreement in 2005 (Pant, 2009). dispute about the border region of The first term used by Obama was Kashmir) (Mohan, 2013). In order well-marked by deepening of mutual to get resources from rich countries relations. During her visit to India, in Africa, China is implementing the the former US State Secretary Hilary “String of Pearls” strategy creating a Clinton gave an exclusive interview to net of ports through the Pacific and Times of India under the headline: “I Indian Ocean. One of them, the consider India’s global power a clear Pakistani port town of Gwadar, has attempt to legitimize its position as a turned out to be an important Chinese global affairs actor” (Goswami, 2009). asset offering an attractive solution to transport resources to China via rails As a player in this game, India has a and pipelines strategically more safely natural desire to avoid being trapped than the sea lines, where the Chinese in the US-China’s possible rivalry. It is navy does not have control yet. This trying to develop its own independent condition turns India back to look for and influential position in the Asian a closer cooperation with the US like Pacific region through an ambitious Pakistan. It represents as well a crucial (and slow moving) plan of building its American ally in the region mainly for own armed forces. What it pursues is to combating insurgent movements in support its presence as the major local Afghanistan (Kabraji, 2012). power in the Indian Ocean (Mohan, 2015). India is now trying to develop The relation with Japan is a source of good relations with Burma and Vietnam big future concerns because of many in an attempt to counterbalance the factors. Not only the recent territorial growing Chinese influence in South dispute over Diaoyu / Senkaku islands Asian region; however, it is not a new is sparking the nationalist moods strategy for India. At the beginning in both countries but the history of of the 1990s, India implemented the mutual wars seems to continuously cast “Look East Policy”, trying to adapt shadows over the bilateral relations. itself to the new global reality. After The executed Japanese Second World the end of the Cold War (having lost its War criminals are buried in the sacred ally, the USSR) and after the successful Shintoist shrine of Yasukuni and reforms of 1991, India tried to make considered war heroes in Japan. This solid economic relations with Asian fact has raised a lot of resentment in countries. Not to forget that these new China despite of their strong economic allies would allow India to create a interdependence. China has been a balance in the growth of the Chinese receiver of the Japanese foreign direct political and economic influence (and investment since the 1980s, when its neighbour, Pakistan despite their many Japanese companies intended to long record of complicated relations outsource their production and reduce including three wars and an unresolved the prices of their products. Since the
THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 12 N.° 1 - Enero-junio 61 outbreak of this territorial dispute, the in defending its territory but also in Japanese investment in China started supporting its allies. (Fackler Sanger, to decline. Even if the fall was not 2014). Even if his announcement dramatic at that moment, this issue sparked strong popular protests and clearly demonstrates the tie between the probability of making such a the Chinese geopolitical projection change in the Constitution is very and its economic capabilities. It is low, this evidences important power important to mention another fact transformations in the region. (Fackler regarding the same context. According Sanger, 2014). to the Bank of Japan, China became Japan´s major creditor in 2010, owning USD$ 230 billion in short-term and long-term government bonds. It Territorial disputes in the Asia represents 3.6 % of the whole Chinese Pacific Region foreign currency reserves, emphasizing the fact that in the case of any political The Asian security system represents a problem, the Japanese government set of complex relations, which is not will have to resolve the possible easy to manage, not even for the smaller impact of this on its economy. (Zheng, countries in the region. The situation is 2014). However, the conflict’s threat even more complex because there is could rapidly go beyond the field of not any multilateral institution in place economic measures. According to the dealing directly with security issues. US-Japan Security Treaty, the US is The ASEAN has often been credited guaranteeing the security and defence as having a pacifying effect in South- of Japan (since Japan has a limited eastern Asia due to its promotion of army called Self-Defence Forces and regional cooperation (Haftel, 2012). according to its anti-war Constitution, Two ASEAN multilateral initiatives the use of its own army is strictly limited have been instrumental in promoting to protection of the Japanese territory). these ties: the ASEAN Regional In the case of rising territorial tensions, Forum and the ASEAN Plus Three the US could find itself trapped in the Initiative; it includes China, Japan, and territorial conflict between China and South Korea covering all dominant Japan; this presumably would lead to regional players and engaging them broaden the conflict to almost global effectively in the schemes of economic scale (Beina Xu, 2014). But Japan is cooperation with the clear aim to not only relying on the US defence nurture the ties with Japan, India, the commitment. The Prime Minister, US, and China. At the same time, the Shinzo Abe, in July 2014, announced ASEAN proposes traditional attitudes that the Japanese constitution needs of respecting sovereignty, promoting to be reassessed so the Japanese army non-interference and territorial should gain more relevance, not only integrity, which constitute a hard-to-
Dusan Praj - Juan Carlos Restrepo 62 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD accomplish- attitude in the middle according to Bader, the following of the recent territorial disputes in issues are involved: the Eastern and Southern China Sea (Mohan, 2013). These disputes share a) Highly emotional territorial claims some similarities and differences as in a region of rising nationalism. well. The East China Sea territorial b) Risks of accidental conflict that struggle involves only two claimants: could intensify. China and Japan. The clash is about c) Conflicting claims to potentially a small-uninhabited island claimed rich resources4. by both. This is connected to the d) Risks to navigation liberty in the interpretation of the US-Japan Mutual Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Security Treaty (Bader, Lieberthal, e) Disputes over the interpretation McDevitt, 2014). According to this and applicability of international treaty (after its defeat in the Second laws; notably the UN Convention World War) Japan would have limited on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) military forces and budget destined for (Bader, Lieberthal, McDevitt, self- defence and the main burden of 2014). the military costs and presence would be borne by the US. This small trick This rising assertiveness in which China helped Japan to outsource the military is claiming various disputed islands is spending to this actor (the US) and led to causing concern among the Asian states an unprecedented rise of the Japanese and is helping directly to strengthen economy, positioning Japan into the the US presence in the area due to a famous triad of the most developed policy of balancing. The US needs to regions in the world. However, the reassure all its regional allies that would situation today is changing. There is maintain strong security presence in a nationalist campaign sparked by the region and counterbalance the China’s claims and the pressure from Chinese influence in the South China the US to engage more in military Sea. But improving the military ties is issues in the region as an impulse for not the only way to solve the problem. the now stagnating Japanese economy. The development of multilateral Nowadays, the South China Sea binding codes of conduct among China territorial claims are among a wider and the ASEAN countries regarding the number of the claimants and pit China South China Sea was already adopted against The Philippines, Vietnam, in 2002 (ASEAN, 2002). However, no Brunei, Malaysia, and Taiwan; member has ever implemented its
4 According to the US energy Information Administration, there are 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas located in Southern China (US Energy Information Administration, 2013).
THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 12 N.° 1 - Enero-junio 63 proposals or adhered to its provisions. the Asia Pacific region. This strategic China has historically preferred to initiative does not restrict itself only handle all the disputes bilaterally and to diplomatic and political activity. In the mutual territorial claims between 2012, the official document Sustaining the ASEAN members prevented the US Global Leadership emphasized that: implementation of the collective conduct treaty. Because of the lack of “The US economic and security will to implement binding international interests are inextricably linked to norms, the military balancing seems to developments in the arc extending be the dominant strategy in the region. from the Western Pacific and East President Obama expressed his being Asia into the Indian Ocean region in accordance with this during his 2014 and South Asia, creating a mix of tour to the Asian Region. His travel evolving challenges and opportunities. itinerary included Japan, South Korea, Accordingly, while the US military Malaysia and The Philippines; it can be will continue to contribute to security inferred that his visiting to the last two globally, we will of necessity rebalance mentioned countries is a clear sign of toward the Asia-Pacific region. Our the US’ interest in strengthening those relationships with Asian allies and relations, as a reaction of the territorial key partners are critical to the future disputes with China. President Obama stability and growth of the region. We was the first US president who visited will emphasize our existing alliances, Malaysia (since President Johnson’s visit which provide a vital foundation for in 1966) and security issues formed an Asia-Pacific security. We will also important part of his agenda. In the expand our networks of cooperation Philippines, Obama’s next stopover, with emerging partners throughout his visit arranged the US-Philippines the Asia-Pacific to ensure collective defence pact (for basing forces there), capability and capacity for securing considering The Philippines as a common interests. The United States major US’ not- NATO ally. With this is also investing in a long-term strategic agreement, the Asian country can partnership with India to support its use the renewed US’ engagement as ability to serve as a regional economic support against the growing Chinese anchor and provider of security in military and para-military presence in the broader Indian Ocean region. the South China Sea Region (Eilperin, Furthermore, we will maintain peace 2014). on the Korean Peninsula by effectively working with allies and other regional It can be assumed that this journey states to deter and defend against represented an important step in the provocation from North Korea, which “Asian Pivot” Policy, a strategic initiative is actively pursuing a nuclear weapons promoted by the US and focused on program”. (US Ministry Of Defence, the shift of the US interest towards 2012, p.2).
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The US diplomatic and economic American periphery (Holmes, 2012). efforts, as well as a military presence, One of the most important features of are getting more concentrated on the spreading the Chinese influence is the Pacific scenario with the possibility of view China has on the former soviet creating new alliances as an effective Central Asian republics: important instrument of counterbalancing in the energy resources, raw materials, and region. The question is whether this markets for the manufacturing of realignment of alliances constitutes the Chinese goods. only possibility to contain the Chinese assertiveness. Many ASEAN states However, the Chinese interest in the have expressed their concern of being Asia goes beyond the ex-soviet Central trapped between the US and China’s Asian republics. The relations between arm race in the region (Mohan, 2013). China and Russia have improved So far, it can be assumed that the lack considerably in recent years; the main of mechanisms for a peaceful solution reason for this policy is not a secret. of the disputes among the states inside The growth of the Chinese economy the Asian Regional System opens naturally creates an increase demand the possibility for the alignment and for energetic resources and the closest polarization of the relations, where and most abundant source of these is the affected states are pressured to Russia. take a side in the competition. The natural conditions of the Chinese The possession of a vast oil and economy’s rise are creating the natural gas reserve underpinned the re- conditions for the spread of China’s emergence of Russia as a great power influence on its border territories, (Petersen, Barysch, 2011). At the same its “near abroad”. The term “near time, the access to energy is vital for abroad” is basically used in connection China to sustain its economic growth with the Russian influence on its thus the energy issue is one of the most former Soviet republics or the outer important aims of the Chinese foreign regions of Europe (except the current policy. Just as Russia is relying heavily enlargement territory of the European on energy exports, seeing them as tools Union). This model could also now to pursue its own geopolitical interests, be applied to China’s neighbours, not China will remain the net importer of only to its Eastern maritime border but its oil. (Petersen, Barysch, 2011). The to the continental land frontier as well existence of common interests and (Fojtík, 2011). But as other analysts the rapprochement between Russia stress out, the Chinese influence over and China based on the increasing the near abroad can take part of the economic interdependence could soft hegemony unintentionally copying solidify the formal Sino-Russian alliance the US’ Monroe Doctrine, which led and create a new hub of political and the US foreign policy towards its Latin economic power with a global scope.
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FIGURE 2: China’s military spending from 2000 to 2014.
Source: Statista, 2016
Chinese “Look West” Policy its retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan). This lets space for strengthening the China’s interest shift towards the West Chinese ties even in the Middle East, is relatively new. In October 2012, despite of the fact that China has the most prominent and influential been signing important agreements Chinese International Relations with Iran, whose nuclear program is Scholar, Wang Jisi, stated that “March considered highly controversial by West” is an adequate articulated the Western powers; so the Chinese Chinese response to the growing presence in the area has already a very US presence in Eastern Asia. (Yun, solid base (McDevitt, 2014). The new 2013). According to his opinion, the “Look West Strategy” is even more Westwards area of the Chinese border ambitiously articulated with the New is not under such pressing relations as Silk Road Project, with the aim to the Pacific Region. This opens the path connect the Chinese industrial centres for China’s political and economic with their European counterparts penetration and even a space for through train networks and maritime cooperating with the US (because of lines. According to the Chinese press the common interest in the area and agency Xinhua, President Li took a the decreasing US engagement after march along the Silk Road in autumn,
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2014; he visited all the Central Asian Silk Road will have a direct impact on post-soviet republics, linking the Silk 65 countries in the region, where 55% Road member countries with the SCO of the world GDP, 70% of the world members and stepped up the project population, and 75% of the world by creating an Asian Infrastructure energetic reserves are concentrated. Bank. It invests mainly in infrastructure (Vidales Garcia, 2016) projects in Central Asia as the first steps on the road to reach Europe (Xinhua, Nonetheless, for now we can assume 2014). The argument to support this that there is no imminent danger of strategy is that for the Chinese-owned a conflict on the Chinese continental companies, it is much easier to operate border despite of the Chinese in the Central Asian region than in geopolitical penetration of Central Russia itself, making simultaneously Asia. The other important player in these republics dependent on Chinese the zone, Russia is struggling with capital inflow. China achieved to Western economic sanctions, and in replace Russia as the major trading the search for diversifying its economy partner to the Central Asian Republics is looking more for cooperation than and, at the same time, it became the confrontation with China. (Teufel Dryer, main destination of the major part of 2016) As a result, the possible future the local gas production. (Casey, 2014). conflict is far more likely to happen At the same time, in Central Asia, in the Chinese oceanic periphery, Beijing is a preferred partner for the where the Chinese dependence on regions many autocratic governments the foreign oil would push China who welcome Chinese non- inevitably to develop its blue water interference in their affairs. (Johnson, navy fleet in order to protect its supply 2016). Nevertheless, the New Silk lines. Despite of the recent reforms, Road remains a very broad concept the Chinese economy still stayed an with a very modest institutional export-oriented economy. As such, background behind. So far only it is in a position of dependency. No mechanisms for finding the New Silk matter how large its currency reserves road were created. The Chinese- only or how advanced its technology, or New Silk Road Fund has been created how cheap its labour force, China still and a multilateral Asian Infrastructure depends on the willingness of other Investment Bank. (Kaczmarski, countries to import its goods, as well Rodkiewicz, 2016). Despite of the as the ability to physically ship them. recent nature of this institution, several Any disruption of this flow has a European big countries like United direct effect on the Chinese economy Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy and, subsequently, an impact on the supported this step despite of heated political stability and regime legitimacy objections from the USA (Johnson, (an issue that the Chinese Communist 2016). Anyway, the project of the New Party does not want to question for
THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE CHINESE REFORM REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 12 N.° 1 - Enero-junio 67 sure) (Friedman, 2008). Agnew uses a it should be bridged in the process of similar argument: the huge size of the developing because it can represent the Chinese manufacturing sector and its source of a growing political instability. export orientation allowed China to The second main trend of the recent become the world’s major creditor Chinese development, the State country by attaching its currency to projects supported by Keynesianism the US Dollar, and recreating for itself (to stimulate the economy), will have a stability that was associated to the a direct impact on its infrastructural Bretton-Woods monetary system of development; this trend would favour 1944-1974 (Agnew, 2010). The main the connections and amplify the reach problem with the export-oriented of the Chinese interests: the giant economies is that controlling the projects of trail connections between external demand remains outside the China, Germany, or Russia, the New producing state, which only possess a Silk Road. This will naturally strengthen few tools to control prices. The recent the relations between China and economic situation in which China has its neighbouring countries pointing become the industrial workshop of the clearly to an increasing economic world (which makes it very dependent interdependence. on the world to keep buying its goods) is hard to manage during a global Although the relations of economic economic recession. interdependence generally tend to diminish the possibility of conflicts Given this situation, a logic step is to among the states, it cannot be forgotten pursue the plan of reforms aiming that the rising economic potential of mainly to improving the conditions China (estimated growth of 6.7 % by of the Chinese population (living 2016 according to the World Bank, a standards) and strengthening the very robust one) is causing a direct impact domestic demand. Although regarding on the trend to expand control over the size of the Chinese population, strategic territories and shipping lines only a smaller, urban part of it would outside the borders of China. (World feel the real impact of these in the near Bank, 2016). This reality inevitably differ future. In order to mitigate this gap, from the other states’ interests in the the Chinese government will have to region, making it prone to the possible search a way to re-distribute the fruits conflict of different scales. of the still impressive growth among the large categories of the population. The creation of the gap in terms of Conclusions accessibility to social benefits between the smaller urban and a large number The outward projection of the Chinese of the rural population was natural on geopolitics is, probably, the most the early stages of the reform. However, visible security issue since the end of
Dusan Praj - Juan Carlos Restrepo 68 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD the Cold War. It is seriously shaping the However, the process of acquiring relations, not only in the Asian Pacific economic, military, and political region, but also redrawing the power capabilities will inevitably affect the balance in Asia. relations and stability in the Pacific region and in Asia as a whole. On The future of this development is raising a global stage, the rising Chinese questions about the possible responses economy has created strong ties with from other Asian countries. The natural the developed countries (as markets interest of these countries would be to for Chinese goods) and with the less follow the regional tradition of peace, developed countries (mainly as a which creates a regional institutional source of raw materials needed for the backup to mitigate the possibility Chinese industry). of new frictions. However, the Asia Pacific region is currently a witness The economic “soft power” seems of the strengthening and creation of to be very effective in acquiring the military alliances and the even stronger influence, but the next logical step military presence of the US. for China would be to acquire the capability of control and dominance of The increasing military spending, vital maritime space. All this is pushing together with populist policies in the China towards more assertive relations countries engaged in territorial claims, with the US. can be potentially dangerous for the future; the economic interdependence The increased Chinese presence in the could be used as an effective tool to region is posing a serious challenge for avoid small- scale or big-scale conflicts. the US and their allies; a challenge in new qualitative conditions (not faced The normative backup, such as since the end of the Cold War). To avoid codes of conduct, have proved to be such a tense situation, the creation of a ineffective in the South China Sea so common regional multilateral platform far since the mutual territorial claims for negotiation would be a solution between the member states prevent to prevent the possible conflicts in an cooperation. area full of weapons.
The current change of the Chinese macroeconomic model and the References slowdown of its economy can temporarily de-escalate the ongoing Agnew, J. (2010): Emerging China and territorial conflicts because China will Critical Geopolitics: Between World have to turn its attention towards its Politics and Chinese Particularity, economic and domestic policies. Eurasian Geography And Economics, 51, No.5 pp. 569-582
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