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UNDERSTANDING HOSTILITY TOWARDS SO-CALLED “BARBARIANS” a Quantitative Analysis of Public Attitudes Towards Foreign Nationals in Post-Apartheid South Africa

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UNDERSTANDING HOSTILITY TOWARDS SO-CALLED “BARBARIANS” a Quantitative Analysis of Public Attitudes Towards Foreign Nationals in Post-Apartheid South Africa University of KwaZulu-Natal College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences UNDERSTANDING HOSTILITY TOWARDS SO-CALLED “BARBARIANS” A Quantitative Analysis of Public Attitudes towards Foreign Nationals in Post-Apartheid South Africa Paper Model Thesis Submitted in fulfilment of the academic requirements for a doctoral degree in the School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal Steven Lawrence Gordon Student Number: 202517167 Supervisor: Brij Maharaj Steven Gordon’s thesis is submitted in fulfilment of the academic requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Science from the School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences (University of KwaZulu-Natal). As the candidate’s supervisor, I have approved this thesis for submission. Signed: Name: Steven Lawrence Gordon Date: 06/01/2017 P a g e | ii Abstract South Africa is a regional hub for international immigration and the country currently hosts at least two million international migrants. Public opinion surveys in South Africa have shown clear evidence of the public’s animosity towards international immigrants and immigration. Non-quantitative researchers have highlighted the role of nationalism and racial alienation in shaping these attitudes. But the influence of these factors has not been tested using quantitative public opinion data. Existing quantitative attitudinal research on international migration in the country is instead mainly focused on discerning changes in public opinion. As a result, significant gaps in the scholarship have emerged that impair our understanding of how attitudes towards immigrants and immigration form in post-apartheid South Africa. The aim of this study is to investigate what micro-level sociological indicator factors are shaping attitudes. The study examines four different types of attitudes: (i) general evaluations; (ii) prejudice; (iii) perceived threat; and (iv) policy preferences. The thesis expands on previous public opinion research by using quantitative research methods to quantify different determinants of these attitudes. Nationally representative public opinion data from the South African Social Attitude Survey was used. The study examines how adult South African public’s attitudes towards international migrants are affected by three key clusters of micro-level sociological indicators: (i) socio-economic status; (ii) group identities; and (iii) intergroup contact. This thesis provides new insight into how we understand anti- immigrant sentiment in the country and sheds new light on areas that past academic literature has either neglected or overlooked. The study follows the 'papers model' and consists of five peer-reviewed research articles. Each paper uses quantitative research methods to discern what micro-level sociological indicators are influencing attitudes towards foreign nationals in post-apartheid South Africa. Two main conclusions can be drawn from the study. First, individual socio-economic status was not a central driver of attitudes towards international migrants and immigration. Second, intergroup contact and group identities (and the key factors related to group identity) tend to be better drivers of attitudes. The most influential group identity factors driving attitudes are: (i) social ties with neighbours; (ii) national identity; (iii) societal interest; and (iv) racial alienation. The results of this study suggest that anti-immigrant sentiment in South Africa can be confronted by changing patterns of intergroup contact and group identifications. This will require a war of ideas, a battle for ordinary South Africans’ hearts and minds. P a g e | iii PREFACE I, Steven Lawrence Gordon declare that 1. The research reported in this thesis, except where otherwise indicated, is my original research. 2. This thesis has not been submitted for any degree or examination at any other university. 3. This thesis does not contain other persons’ data, pictures, graphs or other information, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other persons. 4. This thesis does not contain other persons' writing, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other researchers. Where other written sources have been quoted, then: a. Their words have been re-written but the general information attributed to them has been referenced b. Where their exact words have been used, then their writing has been placed in italics and inside quotation marks, and referenced. 5. This thesis is by publication and consists of five publications which have been submitted and undergone peer-review. All five publications have either been published or are in press and published. The details of each publication are included below: a. 2016 “Xenophobia across the Class Divide: South African Attitudes towards Foreigners 2003–2012.” Journal of Contemporary African Studies 33 (4): 494–509. DOI: 10.1080/02589001.2015.1122870 b. (in press). ‘Subjective National Wellbeing and Xenophobia in Sub-Saharan Africa: Results and Lessons from South Africa’. In Dimension in Community’ Wellbeing to be edited by Patsy Kraeger, Scott Cloutier and Craig Talmage. Springer Press: International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies Young Scholars Book Project. c. 2015. “Neighbourhood-Level Social Capital and Anti-Immigrant Prejudice in an African Context: An Individual-Level Analysis of Attitudes towards Immigrants in South Africa.” Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 53 (2): 197–219. DOI: 10.1080/14662043.2015.1013296 (co-authored with my supervisor Brij Maharaj). d. 2016. “Waiting for the Barbarians: A Public Opinion Analysis of South African Attitudes towards International Migrants.” Ethnic and Racial Studies. (published online). DOI:10.1080/01419870.2016.1181770. e. 2016. “Immigration Policies that Include or Exclude: A South African Public Opinion Study of Immigration Policy Preferences”. Social Dynamics. 42 (3): 443-461. DOI: 10.1080/02533952.2016.1238336. Signed: P a g e | iv Acknowledgement I would like to acknowledge the many individuals who made the writing and publication of this dissertation possible. Over the past four years, I had the privilege of studying at the College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science located in the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN). I would like to extend my appreciation to the entire College for their help and guidance during this time. In particular, I would like to thank my UKZN academic supervisor Professor Brij Maharaj. For his willingness to share, challenge, encourage and inspire I will be forever grateful. Professor Maharaj provided the impetus for me to pursue the papers model when writing my dissertation. He is a man of discerning vision, who listened to my ideas before I even knew how to write them. While writing my doctoral dissertation, I took an internship with the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC). My internship within the HSRC’s Democracy, Governance and Service Delivery (DGSD) Programme afforded me the time, resources and support necessary to complete my doctoral studies. This thesis would not have been possible without the HSRC’s investment in me. I am particularly grateful to Benjamin Roberts, my mentor at the HSRC and my friend. I thank him for his openness, his enthusiasm, his insight and his humour. Mr. Roberts provided me with guidance on statistical analysis and imparted efficient and responsive support at all stages of my study. I benefited significantly from his wisdom and generosity. This study involved an ongoing collaboration with the HSRC-based South African Social Attitude Survey (SASAS) team. I would like to express my profound gratitude to the whole SASAS team who both introduced me to the survey and provided me with valuable and perceptive commentaries on its use. In particular, I want to thank the team coordinators, Jarè Struwig and Benjamin Roberts, for their warm welcome and for their astute, far-sighted and sensible advice. I was extremely privileged to be able to learn from these exceptional researchers. Finally, I would like to thank my dear father Robert Lawrence Gordon. I wish to acknowledge my grateful gratitude for his help, for his great humour and for his faith in me. I benefited daily from his compassion and kindness. If there is any merit in me as a researcher, or the work presented here, it is a result of him. Without his support and words of consolation, this thesis could not have been written. I am eternally indebted to him for the unconditional love, commitment and reassurance he gave me. P a g e | v List of Tables viii List of Figures viii Glossary of Key Terms ix 1 Introducing the Study 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 The Rationale for the Study 3 1.3 The Research Questions of the Study 4 1.4 How to Study Public Opinion and Attitudes 4 1.5 The Research Approach and Thesis Contribution 6 1.6 Structure of the Dissertation 7 2 Study Attitudes: The ‘Why’ and the ‘How’ 2.1 Introduction 9 2.2 Why Studying Attitudes is Important 10 2.2.1 In South Africa, is Xenophobia an Attitude? 10 2.2.2 The Attitude-Behaviour Relationship 11 2.2.3 The Relationship between Public Opinion and Public Policy 13 2.2.4 Attitude Can Be Measured 15 2.2.5 Criticism of Public Opinion Research in South Africa 16 2.3 How Do Attitudes Form? 18 2.3.1 Information, Memory and Heuristics 19 2.3.2 The Assumed Power of Self-Interest 20 2.3.3 Symbols, Values and Ambivalence 21 2.3.4 The Collective Dimension 23 3 Data Used 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 The Sample Design 25 3.3 Data Weighting 28 3.4 Questioning Respondents
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