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AN EXAMINATION of TERRORIST NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS OVER SPACE and TIME By AN EXAMINATION OF TERRORIST NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS OVER SPACE AND TIME by Bryant Garcin A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science Geoinformatics and Geospatial Intelligence Committee: _________________________________________ Dr. Arie Croitoru, Thesis Director _________________________________________ Dr. Anthony Stefanidis, Committee Member _________________________________________ Dr. Kevin Curtin, Committee Member _________________________________________ Dr. Anthony Stefanidis, Department Chairperson _________________________________________ Dr. Donna M. Fox, Associate Dean, Office of Student Affairs & Special Programs, College of Science _________________________________________ Dr. Peggy Agouris, Dean, College of Science Date: __________________________________ Spring Semester 2017 George Mason University Fairfax, VA An Examination of Terrorist Network Characteristics over Space and Time A Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science at George Mason University by Bryant Garcin Bachelor of Science Louisiana State University, 2014 Director: Arie Croitoru, Professor Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science Spring Semester 2017 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright 2017 Bryant Garcin All Rights Reserved ii DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my parents, Deborah and Gary, who have unconditionally supported me throughout my life and I would not be in the situation I am in without them. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis would not have been possible without support from my family, friends, and co-workers who have supported me throughout graduate school. My committee members, Dr. Croitoru, Dr. Stefanidis, and Dr. Curtin, have supported me during the development and writing of my thesis and have provided excellent feedback in helping me formulate the best possible thesis. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... ix List of Equations ................................................................................................................ xi List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................ xii Abstract ............................................................................................................................ xiii Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Literature Review .............................................................................................. 5 2.1 Terrorist Organizations ............................................................................................. 5 2.1.1 Terrorist Characteristics ..................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Organizational Connectedness ........................................................................... 7 2.1.3 Organization Survivability ................................................................................. 7 2.2 Terrorist Networks .................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Network Nodes ................................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 Network Topology .............................................................................................. 9 2.2.3 Network Destabilization ................................................................................... 10 2.3 Terrorist Networks vs. Criminal Networks ............................................................. 11 2.4 Geospatial and Temporal Impacts on Terrorism ..................................................... 13 2.5 Social Network Analysis ......................................................................................... 14 2.5.1 SNA Data Collection Issues ............................................................................. 15 2.5.2 SNA Common Measurements .......................................................................... 15 2.6 Analysis of Terrorist Networks ............................................................................... 16 2.6.1 The 9/11 Terrorist Network (2001) .................................................................. 17 2.6.2 Terrorist Networks in Spain ............................................................................. 19 2.6.3 John Jay & ARTIS Transnational Terrorism Database .................................... 20 2.6.4 Case Studies of Prominent Terrorist Networks ................................................ 24 2.6.5 East Turkistan Network .................................................................................... 28 v 2.7 The Emerging Research Need ................................................................................. 30 Chapter 3: Research HypothesIs ....................................................................................... 31 3.1 Hypotheses .............................................................................................................. 31 3.2 Approach ................................................................................................................. 34 Chapter 4: Data ................................................................................................................. 35 4.1 Data Characteristics................................................................................................. 36 4.2 Terrorist Networks .................................................................................................. 38 4.2.1 The 2000 Philippines Ambassador Residence Bombing, Jakarta, Indonesia ... 38 4.2.2 The 2000 Christmas Eve Bombings, Indonesia ................................................ 41 4.2.3 The 2001 Hamburg, Germany 9/11 Cell .......................................................... 43 4.2.4 The 2002 Bali, Indonesia Bombings ................................................................ 46 4.2.5 The 2004 Madrid, Spain Train Bombings ........................................................ 48 4.2.6 The 2004 Australian Embassy Bombing, Jakarta, Indonesia ........................... 51 4.2.8 The 2005 Bali, Indonesia Bombings ................................................................ 53 4.3 Terrorist Network Time Series ................................................................................ 55 4.3.1 The Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist Network, Indonesia ....................................... 55 4.3.2 The November 17 Organization, Greece .......................................................... 57 Chapter 5: Methods ........................................................................................................... 61 5.1 Network Efficiency ................................................................................................. 61 5.2 Network Connectivity ............................................................................................. 62 5.3 Network Resiliency ................................................................................................. 63 5.4 Network Operational Security ................................................................................. 65 5.5 Analysis Workflow ................................................................................................. 66 Chapter 6: Results and Analysis ....................................................................................... 71 6.1 Network Efficiency ................................................................................................. 71 6.1.1 The 2000 Philippines Ambassador Residence Bombing, Jakarta, Indonesia ... 72 6.1.2 The 2000 Christmas Eve Bombings, Indonesia ................................................ 73 6.1.3 The 2001 Hamburg, Germany 9/11 Cell .......................................................... 73 6.1.4 The 2002 Bali, Indonesia Bombings ................................................................ 75 6.1.5 The 2004 Madrid, Spain Train Bombings ........................................................ 76 6.1.6 The 2004 Australian Embassy Bombing, Jakarta, Indonesia ........................... 77 6.1.7 The 2005 Bali, Indonesia Bombings ................................................................ 78 vi 6.1.8 The Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist Network, Indonesia ....................................... 79 6.1.9 The November 17 Organization, Greece .......................................................... 80 6.2 Network Connectivity ............................................................................................. 81 6.2.1 The 2000 Philippines Ambassador Residence Bombing, Jakarta, Indonesia ... 82 6.2.2 The 2000 Christmas Eve Bombings, Indonesia ................................................ 83 6.2.3 The 2001 Hamburg, Germany 9/11 Cell .......................................................... 84 6.2.4 The 2002 Bali, Indonesia Bombings ................................................................ 85 6.2.5 The 2004 Madrid, Spain Train Bombings ........................................................ 86 6.2.6 The 2004 Australian Embassy Bombing, Jakarata, Indonesia ........................
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