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Q12020 | Real Estate Market Overview | Greece Athens | May, 2020 | Private & Confidential 1.0 Synopsis Greece Real Estate Market: Synopsis

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Q12020 | Real Estate Market Overview | Greece Athens | May, 2020 | Private & Confidential 1.0 Synopsis Greece Real Estate Market: Synopsis YE2019 - Q12020 | Real Estate Market Overview | Greece Athens | May, 2020 | Private & Confidential 1.0 Synopsis Greece Real Estate Market: Synopsis Global Economy Q1 2020 Greek Economy 2019 Policy Responses to the Pandemic Coronavirus pandemic freezes Broad-based recovery led by exports Fiscal Policy expected to do the economic activity and public consumption heavy-lifting to combat Covid-19 • IMF states that GDP per capita shrinking in 170 • GDP continues to increase at positive rate of • Fiscal measures announced to support countries due to pandemic is now an optimistic 1.9% (2019). Data are provisional with a second economy and private sector corporations and scenario estimate expected in October 2020 employees. The second wave of budgetary • According to the IMF, the global economy is • Unemployment down to 16.6% (12/2019) from measures amounts to 3.8 bil. Euros. forecasted to shrink by 3% as a base case 27.5% in 2013. Euro area unemployment at • ENFIA tax will be calculated according to scenario and expected to bounce back in 2021 7.3% (February 2020) previous status quo and new fair value prices • The recovery is largely dependent on how long • Inflation rate is muted and is expected to remain will kick in 2021. the outbreak will last at low levels (0.9%) • European Investment Bank to provide 2 bn • More than 300,000 people have lost their lives • NPLs-to-Gross Loans down to 42.1% (Sep. euros liquidity to corporations. until May 2020. 2019) from 46.7% in September 2018 • ECB expected to maintain accommodative policy and Asset Purchases. House Prices 2019 Real Estate Supply Apartment Prices 2019 Prices of Dwellings continue to Number of building permits increase in YoY increase of 7.5% compared to increase in 2019 2019 2018 • Prices of dwellings increased by 7.5% on a y-o- • Total building activity at a country level has • Apartment prices are increasing but they remain y basis increased by 16.6% (Feb 2019- Jan.2020) at low levels • Percentage change in Q4 -2019 relative to Q1- • Production Index of Building Construction which • Relative to Q1-2019, prices of apartments older 2019 comes at 5% measures value of construction of buildings than 5 years grew by 4%. New up to 5 yeas • Domestic demand for houses is expected to (residential and non-residential) along with site grew at 6.4% increase as a result of low costs of financing formation, demolition, and general works for • On a y-o-y basis, apartment prices in Athens and reduction of NPL levels on banks’ balance buildings has dropped by 5.7% y-o-y basis. grew by 11% and apartment prices in sheets Thessaloniki by 5.5% • Apartment prices are driven by short rent platforms and “Golden Visa” investors. Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 2 | 2.0 Greek Economy Greek Economy grew in 2019. Impact from pandemic estimated at -10% on GDP growth Main drivers of growth in 2019 are exports of goods and services and government consumption. Impact of Covid-19 cannot be quantified yet. Expectations range from 0% to -10% GDP growth in 2020. Real GDP Growth Key Figures 4.0% 2% EC Forecast ignoring COVID 2% 2% 2% GDP Growth 1.9% Expected to shrink 2.0% 1% -0.3% 0% 0% 0.0% Unemployment 16.6% Expected to increase, highly uncertain -2.0% -3% -4% Inflation 0.9% Not expected to change in short-run -4.0% -5% Investments (bn), ‘19) € 21.4 5% compared to 2018 -6.0% -7% -8.0% -9% Government Debt1 181.1% Expected to increase to 200% IMF Forecast accounting for COVID -10.0% -10% Source: Eurostat, European Commission Projections -12.0% 1 General Government Gross Debt as a percentage of GDP (2018) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 Source: Eurostat Gross Fixed Capital Formation (mil. €) IMF expectations Real GDP Covid Effect 10000 Exports/Imports in mn € 8000 75,000 6000 67,218 69728 70,000 69,452 4000 66,889 65,000 69710 2000 63,353 62,130 61,292 60,000 59,915 55,931 54,317 66,736 0 55,000 52,866 54,845 59,454 57,837 55,840 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 50,000 49,958 54,835 53,059 45,000 Dwellings Other buildings and structures 40,000 Cultivated biological resources Total Machinery 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Transport equipment +weapon systems Information Communication Technology (ICT) equipment Exports Imports Other machinery and equipment +weapon systems Intellectual property products Source: ELSTAT Source: ELSTAT Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 3 | 3.0 Tourism Industry Greece scores first with 87.9% in hotel satisfaction index (GRI), June 2019 data. Tourism is one of the leading contributors to GDP with a share of over 20%. Total arrivals are continuously increasing since 2010 signalling increasing demand for Greek destinations. In dealing with Covid-19 Greece has gained credibility which should be cashed during the 2021 season. Total Arrivals* ('000s) Average Spend/Night by country of Origin (€) 35,000 30,123 80.0 30,000 27,194 24,799 73.1 73.9 23,599 70.0 69.6 71.1 70.4 25,000 22,033 68.6 67.0 67.7 69.0 17,920 60.0 20,000 16,427 15,007 15,518 15,000 50.0 10,000 40.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 5,000 Eurozone EU countries outside Eurozone 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Other Countries Total Border Survey** Source: Insete Source: Insete *Excludes cruises *2018 data are provisional Hotel Occupancy Rates ** Cruise data not included • Average spend per night has exhibited a modest increase and remains lower than 2015 levels 100 74.8 76.2 • Other Countries segment includes US, Australia and Switzerland with 89.1,84.3 and 85.1€ spend 65.8 80 68.1 on average per night. From those countries only US tourists spent more in 2018 than in 2017 52.8 • 2018 Occupancy rates are fairly stable on a y-o-y basis 60 66.8 75.2 76.8 66.3 • Bank of Greece provisional data for January to March 2019 period showed a surplus of 212 mn € in 40 22.3 23.6 26.1 47.1 balance of travel services, up from 127 mn € surplus in same period for 2018 20 • UK tourists form a significant share of inbound arrivals. BREXIT negotiations pose a risk for Greek 22.1 21.8 25.5 tourism to the extent of the deal reached. Recent collapse of Thomas Cook will cost the economy 0 0.5bn€ according to government officials Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug • For the period of 2019 according to preliminary data, arrivals are estimated at over 30 million and 2017 2018 generating approximately 18 bil euros in revenues • Hotel units are estimated at 9,917 Source: Insete Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 4 | 4.0 Banking Sector NPLs dropped to 42.1% but bad-debt management issue still looms over economy. 10 Year Greek Benchmark Government Bond yields drop to new lows, 2% on April. Yields increased during the period of lockdown Investor confidence to Greek economy picked up during 2019, as did the Bank Equity Market Index. The effect of the pandemic is apparent in bank equity sector. 10 Year Greek Government FTSE Bank Index Benchmark Bond Yield Quarterly Closing Prices 16 950 862 883 14 806 829 850 785 12 750 10 8 650 577 552 6 550 440 4 450 2 344 350 0 250 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Apr-18 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Source: Athens Stock Exchange Source: Bloomberg • Greece’s cost of financing has dropped to low levels, which can be used to finance more growth- NPL Ratio oriented policies and provide stimulus for economic recovery in response to the lockdown 49.1 50 49.1 48.7 48.6 • Confidence to Greek economy seems to cascade down to the financial sector with bank stocks 47.8 47.2 gaining in price before the lockdown and the prospects of a potential recession 48 46.7 45.4 • According to Bank of Greece data, total deposits and repos from private sector stood at 143 bn € , a 46 45.1 43.6 6.3% 12-month change (Public Source, December 2019) 44 42.1 • On the downside, Greece is the worst performing country in Euro area in terms of NPL ratio. NPLs 42 are a drag on banks’ balance sheets and hinder their ability to issue new loans to customers 40 • Greek banks Tier 1 Capital Ratio was estimated at 15.3% (ECB, January 2019) well above Basel III minimum requirement of 6%. Greece’s Tier 1 ratio is at the average of Euro Area level 38 • In dealing with the global pandemic there is uncertainty on the impact of Covid-19 on bank balance Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 sheets through the management of non-performing loans • Securitization is brought to halt at least until H2 2020 Source: Bank of Greece Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 5 | 5.0 Population (2011 Census) Total Population per Region East Macedonia – Thrace 608,182 (6%) Central Macedonia 1,882,108(17%) West Macedonia 283,689 (3%) North Aegean 199,231(2%) Epirus 336,856(3%)) Thessaly 732,762(7%) Central Greece Ionian islands 547,390(5%) 207,855(2%) West Greece South Aegean 679,796(6%) Attica 3,828,434(35%) 309,015(3%) Peloponnese 577,903(5%) Source: ELSTAT Delfi Partners | Real Estate Market Research | Private & Confidential | 6 | 6.0 Residential Assets Demographics Residential market 2011 snapshot.
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