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Contractor's Report to the Board

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Contractor's Report to the Board DRAFT—For Discussion Purposes Only. Contractor’s Report to the Board Life Cycle and Market Impact Assessment of Noncombustion Waste Conversion Technologies October 2004 Produced under contract by: RTI International Zero Waste—You Make It Happen! DRAFT—For Discussion Purposes Only. S TATE OF C ALIFORNIA Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor Terry Tamminen Secretary, California Environmental Protection Agency INTEGRATED WASTE MANAGEMENT BOARD Rosario Marin Linda Moulton-Patterson Rosalie Mulé Board Chair Board Member Board Member Michael Paparian Cheryl Peace Carl Washington Board Member Board Member Board Member Mark Leary Executive Director For additional copies of this publication, contact: Integrated Waste Management Board Public Affairs Office, Publications Clearinghouse (MS–6) 1001 I Street P.O. Box 4025 Sacramento, CA 95812-4025 www.ciwmb.ca.gov/Publications/ 1-800-CA-WASTE (California only) or (916) 341-6306 Publication #XXX-XX-XXX Printed on recycled paper containing a minimum of 30 percent post-consumer fiber. Prepared as part of contract no. IWM-C2030 (total contract amount: $849,118). Copyright © 2004 by the California Integrated Waste Management Board. All rights reserved. This publication, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form without permission. The statements and conclusions of this report are those of the contractor and not necessarily those of the California Integrated Waste Management Board, its employees, or the State of California. The State makes no warranty, expressed or implied, and assumes no liability for the information contained in the succeeding text. Any mention of commercial products or processes shall not be construed as an endorsement of such products or processes. The California Integrated Waste Management Board (CIWMB) does not discriminate on the basis of disability in access to its programs. CIWMB publications are available in accessible formats upon request by calling the Public Affairs Office at (916) 341-6300. Persons with hearing impairments can reach the CIWMB through the California Relay Service, 1-800-735-2929. The energy challenge facing California is real. Every Californian needs to take immediate action to reduce energy consumption. For a list of simple ways you can reduce demand and cut your energy costs, Flex Your Power and visit www.consumerenergycenter.org/flex/index.html. DRAFT—For Discussion Purposes Only. Table of Contents List of Figures................................................................................................................................iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. v Executive Summary........................................................................................................................ 1 Background................................................................................................................................. 1 Hypothetical Conversion Technology Development Scenario................................................... 2 Methodology for Conducting the Life Cycle Assessment.......................................................... 4 Key Findings from the Life Cycle Assessment .......................................................................... 8 Key Assumptions and Related Uncertainties of Life Cycle Assessment Results..................... 12 Methodology for Conducting the Market Impact Assessment ................................................. 13 Key Findings from the Market Impact Assessment.................................................................. 15 Key Assumptions and Related Uncertainties of Market Impact Assessment Results.............. 24 Future Research Needs ............................................................................................................. 25 Chapter 1: Introduction................................................................................................................. 27 Background............................................................................................................................... 27 Goals of This Study .................................................................................................................. 27 Conversion Technologies Studied ............................................................................................ 27 Limitations of This Study ......................................................................................................... 28 How to Use This Report ........................................................................................................... 29 Process for Conducting the Study............................................................................................. 29 Report Organization.................................................................................................................. 30 Chapter 2: Description of Hypothetical Conversion Technology Growth Scenario .................... 33 Overview of Selected Conversion Technologies...................................................................... 33 Assumed Geographic Locations and Growth Scenarios........................................................... 35 Conversion Technology Feedstock Assumptions..................................................................... 37 Detailed Conversion Technology Descriptions and Boundaries .............................................. 39 Boundaries for the Life Cycle Analysis.................................................................................... 45 Boundaries for the Market Impact Assessment ........................................................................ 46 Chapter 3: Life Cycle Assessment Methodology ......................................................................... 48 What Is Life Cycle Analysis? ................................................................................................... 48 Goals and Scope Definition ...................................................................................................... 50 Life Cycle Inventory Modules for Conversion Technologies .................................................. 52 Life Cycle Inventory Parameters Tracked and Reported.......................................................... 55 Life Cycle Inventory Scenarios Analyzed ................................................................................ 57 Chapter 4: Life Cycle Study Results and Key Findings ............................................................... 63 Life Cycle Inventory Results and Key Findings....................................................................... 63 Summary of Key Findings........................................................................................................ 80 Key Uncertainties and Variables Associated with the Life Cycle Study.................................. 82 Chapter 5: Market Impact Assessment Methodology and Data ................................................... 85 Study Definition........................................................................................................................ 85 Study Approach and Methodology ........................................................................................... 86 Markets for Feedstock............................................................................................................... 87 Feedstock Composition........................................................................................................... 107 Existing Institutional Relationships ........................................................................................ 111 Jurisdictions Interested in Conversion Technology................................................................ 112 ii DRAFT—For Discussion Purposes Only. Conversion Technology Pricing Assumptions........................................................................ 113 Job and Revenue Conversion Factors..................................................................................... 116 ANALYSIS OF KEY BACKGROUND DATA .................................................................... 116 Chapter 6: Market Impact Analysis and Findings ...................................................................... 119 Findings Regarding Impacts on Recycling and Organics Markets......................................... 119 Findings Regarding Impacts on Landfill Markets .................................................................. 123 Findings Regarding Institutional Arrangements..................................................................... 124 Board Policy Issues Related to Conversion Technology Diversion Credit ............................ 125 Summary of Model Results .................................................................................................... 127 Limitations Of Results Presented............................................................................................ 132 Chapter 7: Future Research Needs.............................................................................................. 135 Abbreviations and Acronyms ..................................................................................................... 137 Glossary of Terms....................................................................................................................... 139 Appendix A: Feedstock Data.....................................................................................................
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