Thirsty for Answers Preparing for the Water-Related Impacts of Climate Change in American Cities

Thirsty for Answers Preparing for the Water-related Impacts of Climate Change in American Cities August 2011 Principal Authors Contributing Authors Mark Dorfman Ben Chou Michelle Mehta Steve Fleischli Kirsten Sinclair Rosselot July 2011 Thirsty for Answers Preparing for the Water-related Impacts of Climate Change in American Cities Principal Authors Mark Dorfman Michelle Mehta Contributing Authors Ben Chou Steve Fleischli Kirsten Sinclair Rosselot About NRDC The Natural Resources Defense Council is an international nonprofit environmental organization with more than 1.3 million members and online activists. Since 1970, our lawyers, scientists, and other environmental specialists have worked to protect the world’s natural resources, public health, and the environment. NRDC has offices in New York City, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Montana, and Beijing. Visit us at www.nrdc.org. Acknowledgments NRDC would like to acknowledge the generous support of the TOSA Foundation and the Pisces Foundation. The authors would like to thank Dr. Paul Kirshen of Tufts University and Dr. Robert Wilkinson of the Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California at Santa Barbara, for their guidance and expertise in reviewing the report. The authors would like to thank NRDC’s Science Center, and their colleagues David Beckman, Anthony Clark, Sylvia Fallon, Karen Hobbs, Alexandra Kennaugh, Dan Lashof, Monty Schmitt, Theo Spencer, and Lisa Suatoni at NRDC for their expertise and guidance. The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their contributions to this report: Sandy Bahr, Sierra Club; David Behar, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission; Lisbeth Britt, Miami-Dade County; Tom Buschatzke, City of Phoenix; Bill Dannevik, St. Louis University; Frank Duke, City of Norfolk; Aaron Durnbaugh, City of Chicago; Paul Fleming, Seattle Public Utilities; Glen Hadwen, City of Miami; Nichole Hefty, Miami-Dade County; Anne Marie Holen, City of Homer; Beth Jines, City of Los Angeles; Anne Klein, St. Louis County; Grasshopper Mendoza, Horizon Initiative; John Moore, City of New Orleans; Megan Murphy, Kachemak Bay Research Reserve; Hilary Papendick, City of Seattle; Sara Polgar, San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission; Cynthia Sarthou, Gulf Restoration Network; Skip Stiles, Wetlands Watch; Terry Tamminen; Denise Thompson, City of Norfolk; Catherine Werner, City of St. Louis; John White, City of Norfolk; and Chris Wilke, Puget Soundkeeper. Finally, the authors would like to thank David Gerratt for his hard work, patience, and guidance. This report and its recommendations are solely attributable to NRDC and do not necessarily represent the views of these individuals. NRDC President: Frances Beinecke NRDC Executive Director: Peter Lehner NRDC Director of Communications: Phil Gutis NRDC Deputy Director of Communications: Lisa Goffredi NRDC Publications Director: Lise Stevens NRDC Publications Editor: Carlita Salazar Project Manager: Alexandra Kennaugh Design and Production: David Gerratt Cover photos: Waves (© Thinkstock); House (© iStockphoto); Copyright 2011 by the Natural Resources Defense Council Spigot (© Thinkstock); Road Closed (© iStockphoto) PAGE ii | NRDC Thirsty for Answers Contents Foreword by Terry Tamminen v Executive Summary 1 Background and Methodology 7 ChApteR 1: New York City, New York 11 ChApteR 2: Boston, Massachusetts 23 ChApteR 3: Norfolk, Virginia 29 ChApteR 4: Miami, Florida 41 ChApteR 5: New Orleans, Louisiana 49 ChApteR 6: Chicago, Illinois 55 ChApteR 7: St. Louis, Missouri 63 ChApteR 8: Seattle, Washington 69 ChApteR 9: San Francisco, California 79 ChApteR 10: Los Angeles, California 91 ChApteR 11: Phoenix, Arizona 101 ChApteR 12: Homer, Alaska 109 Recommendations 115 AppeNDix A: Image References 119 Figures FiguRe eS.1: The 12 U.S. cities profiled in this report 1 FiguRe B.1: 20th-century global temperature observations and general circulation model results 7 FiguRe B.2: Global sea level trends 8 FiguRe B.3: Sea surface temperatures where Atlantic hurricanes develop, August through October 8 FiguRe B.4: Number of extreme storms and floods per year in the United States, 1900-2010 8 FiguRe B.5: Change in ocean pH 9 FiguRe 1.1: New York City and surrounding area 12 FiguRe 1.2: New York City power plants 13 FiguRe 1.3: Precipitation change for the 2080s 14 PAGE iii | NRDC Thirsty for Answers FiguRe 1.4: 100-year flood projections for lower Manhattan 15 FiguRe 1.5: Locations of wastewater treatment plants, combined sewer outfalls, and drainage areas in the New York City area, 2008 16 FiguRe 1.6: Temperature change for the 2080s 17 FiguRe 2.1: Boston and surrounding area 24 FiguRe 2.2: Projected sea level rise in Boston 25 FiguRe 2.3: Future projected flood zone 26 FiguRe 3.1: Norfolk and surrounding area 30 FiguRe 3.2: Relative sea level trends along the U.S East Coast 30 FiguRe 3.3: Historic sea level rise at Sewells Point, Norfolk, Virginia, 1927–2006 31 FiguRe 3.4: Projected precipitation in Chesapeake Bay 31 FiguRe 3.5: Comparison of projected inundation areas if a hurricane similar to Isabel were to strike Norfolk at varying degrees of sea level rise 32 FiguRe 3.6: Military and other federal facilities in Norfolk and greater Hampton Roads 33 FiguRe 3.7: Storm tide elevations at Sewells Point, Norfolk 34 FiguRe 3.8: FEMA flood hazard map for Norfolk 34 FiguRe 3.9: Number of normal rainfall years and number of above-normal rainfall years per decade 35 FiguRe 3.10: Projected temperatures in Chesapeake Bay 35 FiguRe 3.11: Repetitive flooding loss sites 36 FiguRe 4.1: Miami and surrounding area 42 FiguRe 4.2: Miami’s zone of vulnerability to a 0.7-meter sea level rise 43 FiguRe 4.3: Miami-area power plants at risk from storm surges 43 FiguRe 4.5: Florida Keys and surrounding area 44 FiguRe 4.4: Number of days with peak temperature over 90°F 46 FiguRe 5.1: New Orleans and surrounding area 50 FiguRe 5.2: New Orleans elevation map 50 FiguRe 5.3: Projected sea level rise in New Orleans 51 FiguRe 5.4: Potential wetland submersion by 2100 52 FiguRe 6.1: Chicago and surrounding area 56 FiguRe 6.2: Projected changes in spring and summer precipitation under higher- and lower-emissions scenarios relative to 1961–1990 averages 57 FiguRe 6.3: Projected changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation events exceeding 2.5 inches in 24 hours 58 FiguRe 6.4: Illinois’s projected “climate migration” due to changes in summer average temperatures and rainfall 59 FiguRe 7.1: St. Louis and surrounding area 64 PAGE iv | NRDC Thirsty for Answers FiguRe 7.2: Upper Mississippi River Basin 64 FiguRe 7.3: Annual floods for the Mississippi River at St. Louis 65 FiguRe 7.4: Peak flow at sites along the Mississippi River for five large flood events 65 FiguRe 7.5: Distribution of Mississippi River crest levels per decade 66 FiguRe 7.6: Floodplain development in the St. Louis region 66 FiguRe 8.1: Seattle and surrounding area 69 FiguRe 8.2: Change in fall precipitation for the 2040s 72 FiguRe 8.3: Comparison of 25-year, 24-hour design storms based on observed and modeled (regional climate model) data at SeaTac airport 72 FiguRe 8.4: Seattle area watersheds 73 FiguRe 9.1: San Francisco and surrounding area 80 FiguRe 9.2: San Francisco Bay Area counties 80 FiguRe 9.3: California water supply system 81 FiguRe 9.4: High-sea-level events 82 FiguRe 9.5: Areas of Oakland at risk from 100-year coastal flood 84 FiguRe 9.6: Projected mean annual precipitation for the Sacramento region 86 FiguRe 10.1: Los Angeles and surrounding area 92 FiguRe 10.2: Areas of the Los Angeles coast at risk from a 100-year flood event 93 FiguRe 10.3: Southern California power plants vulnerable to a 100-year coastal flood with a 55-inch sea level rise 93 FiguRe 10.4: Risk from 100-year flood event in Long Beach and Seal Beach 94 FiguRe 10.5: Water conveyance system in California 95 FiguRe 10.6: Projected snow water equivalent in the northern Sierra Nevada 96 FiguRe 11.1: Phoenix and surrounding area 102 FiguRe 11.2: Central Arizona Project water system map 102 FiguRe 11.3 Reconstructed Colorado River and Salt River watershed streamflows, indicating long-lasting droughts 103 FiguRe 11.4: Potential impacts on runoff in Salt and Verde watersheds 103 FiguRe 11.5: Flow of the already over-allocated Colorado River, showing a general decreasing trend over the past 100 years 104 FiguRe 11.6: City of Phoenix water demand and population growth and per-capita water consumption 106 FiguRe 11.7: Per capita water demand based on residential density 107 FiguRe 12.1: Homer and surrounding area 110 FiguRe 12.2: The Cook Inlet watershed 111 FiguRe 12.3: Percentage change in very heavy precipitation 112 FiguRe 12.4: Alaska’s marine species northward, 1982 to 2006 112 PAGE v | NRDC Thirsty for Answers Tables tABle eS.1: Water-related climate changes and impacts 2 tABle 1.1: Summary of water-related climate changes and impacts in New York City throughout the 21st century 12 tABle 1.2: Changes in extreme flood events 14 tABle 2.1: Summary of water-related climate changes and impacts in Boston throughout the 21st century 24 tABle 3.1: Summary of water-related climate changes and impacts in Norfolk throughout the 21st century 30 tABle 4.1: Summary of water-related climate changes and impacts in Miami and the Florida Keys throughout the 21st century 42 tABle 5.1: Summary of water-related climate changes and impacts in New Orleans throughout the 21st century 50 tABle 6.1: Summary of water-related climate changes and impacts in Chicago throughout the 21st century 56 tABle 6.2: Projected temperature changes for the late-21st-century Chicago 59 tABle 7.1: Summary of water-related climate changes and impacts in St.

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