Critical Infrastructure in Norway
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Equity Research – 26 October 2020 16:52 CET Torghatten Reason: Initiating coverage Endless sea of earnings visibility A key infrastructure provider in Norway Government-backed earnings via long-term contracts Initiating coverage at BUY; TP NOK 200 (55% upside) Share price (NOK) 23/10/2020 128.0 Not a traditional transport company Target price (na) 200.0 Torghatten is the leading passenger transportation company in Norway. It is involved in Sea, Bus and Air transport, but Sea is by far the most Shipping & Transport, Norway important segment, accounting for 86% of EBIT (2021e) and ~75% of our TORG.OL/TORG NO SOTP value. Torghatten’s operations include key infrastructure services in Norway, backed by the Government through long-term contracts with MCap (NOKm) 5,774 no price and volume risk. In fact, within Sea and Bus ~80% of revenues MCap (EURm) 530 come from long-term contracts, which provides investors with unusually Net debt (EURm) 308 strong revenue and earnings visibility. Given the high contract coverage, Torghatten sits on a ~NOK 42bn order backlog of which ~NOK 20bn is in No. of shares (m) 45.1 Sea, representing nearly seven years of revenues. The contract-based Free float (%) 100 revenue model gives, in our view, low macro cyclicality earnings risk. Av. daily volume (k) na Earnings growth and strong CF Torghatten has delivered impressive figures: 2015-2019 sales and EBIT CAGRs of 7.4% and 10.8%, respectively. This represents sales growth Performance materially above market growth (2-3%), which is explained by Torghatten 200 gaining market share through contract wins. In our forecasts we do not 180 assume that Torghatten will gain market share, as our estimates only 160 reflect market growth. We estimate stable margins for its Sea and Bus 140 segments, while we expect the Air segment (~3% of 2021e EBIT) to only 120 see ~3% EBIT margin in ’22e/’23e vs. 5.1% in ’14 -19 (average). We 100 expect that relatively low capex will yield strong FCF, with 48% cash 80 conversion/net debt down to NOK 1.8bn in ’22e (1.0x net debt / EBITDA). 60 18 19 20 17 18 19 18 19 20 18 19 20 18 19 20 17 18 19 20 Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Jun Jun Jun Feb Feb Feb Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Discount to peers not warranted: BUY, TP NOK 200 Torghatten OSE GI Torghatten trades at ’21e and ’22e EV/EBIT of 11.7x and 8.5x, a ~30% 1m 3m 12m discount to peers despite higher earnings growth. Blending peer, SOTP Absolute (%) -4.5 2.4 5.8 and DCF valuations, we set the target price at NOK 200 per share. At OSE GI (%) -86.2 -86.1 -87.0 NOK 200, Torghatten would trade at an adj. P/E in ’21e and ’22e of Source: FactSet 17.4x and 13.9x, respectively. In our view, 2022 better reflects its 2020e 2021e 2022e earnings capacity as we expect the company’s Air segment to still feel P/E (x) 13.3 11.9 9.5 the effects of COVID-19 in ’21, before a return to more normality in 2022. P/E adj (x) 17.3 11.9 9.5 P/BVPS (x) 1.81 1.63 1.46 Analyst(s): [email protected], +47 22 01 61 35 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.1 5.7 4.5 [email protected], +47 22 01 61 60 EV/EBIT adj (x) 16.5 11.7 8.5 NOKm 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e EV/sales (x) 0.94 0.79 0.67 Sales 10,209 11,401 10,032 11,000 11,655 ROE adj (%) 11.0 14.4 16.2 EBITDA 1,419 1,608 1,313 1,525 1,728 Dividend yield (%) 2.3 3.1 4.7 EBITDA margin (%) 13.9 14.1 13.1 13.9 14.8 FCF yield (%) 10.9 13.1 16.8 EBIT adj 684 826 568 747 926 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 10.9 13.1 16.8 EBIT adj margin (%) 6.7 7.2 5.7 6.8 7.9 Net IB debt/EBITDA 2.5 1.7 1.0 Pretax profit 681 686 548 641 845 Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 2.0 1.3 0.6 EPS rep 11.84 11.02 9.62 10.73 13.43 EPS adj 9.05 10.44 7.40 10.73 13.43 Sales growth (%) 4.8 11.7 -12.0 9.6 6.0 EPS growth (%) 36.5 -6.9 -12.7 11.6 25.1 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Document downloaded by Roger GRANHEIM (Torghatten ASA) Torghatten Company description Risks Torghatten is the leading transportation company in Loss of contracts within its Sea and Bus segment would hit Norway, with a history going back to 1978. It is involved in both sales and margins, in our view. Furthermore, if Sea, Bus and Air transport. Sea is the most important competitors are aggressive on price in upcoming tender segment, accounting for 87% of group EBIT, with Bus and processes, it might force Torghatten to accept lower Air at 13% and 3% respectably (2021e). Its operations are returns. Price pressure in its Air business will hurt company a key infrastructure service in Norway backed by the margins. Potential changes in regulation regarding new and government through long-term contracts (7+ years). In fact, more environmentally friendly assets might lift Torghatten’s for Sea and Bus, around 80% of revenues are from long- capex requirements. term contracts, providing unusually strong revenue and earnings visibility, in our view. Annual sales and adj. EBIT margin Net debt and ND/EBITDA adj. 14,000 9.0 4,500 3.5 8.0 4,000 12,000 3.0 7.0 3,500 10,000 2.5 6.0 3,000 8,000 5.0 2,500 2.0 6,000 4.0 2,000 1.5 3.0 1,500 4,000 1.0 2.0 1,000 2,000 0.5 1.0 500 0 0.0 0 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e Sales (LHS) Adj EBIT margin % (RHS) Net debt (LHS) ND/EBITDA (RHS) . Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 26 October 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 2 Document downloaded by Roger GRANHEIM (Torghatten ASA) Torghatten Table of contents Investment summary......................................................................................4 Sea: Critical infrastructure in Norway ............................................................7 Bus: Urbanisation drives demand ................................................................18 Air: Subsidised tender routes ......................................................................25 Estimates......................................................................................................29 Valuation ......................................................................................................31 Appendix: Corporate structure .....................................................................35 Appendix: Risks............................................................................................40 26 October 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 3 Document downloaded by Roger GRANHEIM (Torghatten ASA) Torghatten Investment summary Torghatten is the leading passenger transportation company in Norway, with a history going back to 1978. It is involved in Sea, Bus and Air transport. Sea is the most important segment as it accounts for 86% of group EBIT, with Bus and Air at 13% and 3%, respectively (2021e). The company’s operations include key infrastructure services in Norway, backed by the Government through long-term contracts (+7 years). In fact, within Sea and Bus ~80% of revenues come from long-term contracts, providing investors with unusually strong revenue and earrings visibility. Torghatten: EBIT per segment (2021e) Torghatten: Revenue by form (2021e) 120% % of EBIT (2021e) 120% Segment revenue divided by form 100% 100% 3% -2% 13% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 86% 20% 20% 0% Sea* Bus Air** 0% Sea Bus Air Other Contract "fixed" Passenger "variabel" Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data. * Includes Moss –Horten. **Air: Includes passenger revenue on tender routes (ABGSC estimate). The long-term contracts within Sea and Bus are tendered by the Norwegian government (municipalities, county councils or the Norwegian Public Roads Administration Statens vegvesen).1 Only a few multi-segment players compete on the tenders. Furthermore, most contracts are “gross contracts” which eliminate revenue risk (price and volume) as the operator is paid a fixed amount regardless of traffic volume. Furthermore, the contracts are also adjusted yearly, according to key cost drivers, resulting in relatively strong margin stability. Torghatten’s Air segment consists of 66% ownership in the regional domestic airliner Widerøe which operates both in the tender and commercial market. Tender routes are subsidised by the Government to secure flights between rural areas in Norway. We estimate that tender revenues account for ~40% of Widerøe’s revenues, highlighting a material difference between Widerøe and traditional airlines. In total, Torghatten sits on an order backlog of NOK 42bn. Its most important segment, Sea, accounts for NOK 20bn (48%) representing almost seven years of revenues, indicating strong earnings visibility. 1 Norwegian Public Roads Administration (Statens vegvesen), URL https://www.vegvesen.no/ 26 October 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 4 Document downloaded by Roger GRANHEIM (Torghatten ASA) Torghatten Torghatten’s order backlog Years with contract coverage 45 NOKbn 8 Years 40 7 7 35 6 30 15 5 25 4 20 42 3 15 2 10 20 5 1 0 0 Sea Bus Air Total Sea Bus Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data Robust and stable market with solid growth opportunities Given the high contract coverage and the fact that ~80% of revenues within Sea and Bus come from long-term contracts with no price and volume risk, we argue Torghatten’s earnings represent low macro cyclicality risk. In addition, the three segments, Sea, Bus and Air, all operate in a consolidated market with relatively few companies.