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UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Climate Effects of Black Carbon and the Emission Reduction for Mitigating Climate Change A UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Climate effects of black carbon and the emission reduction for mitigating climate change A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Sciences by Yangyang Xu Committee in charge: Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Chair Lynn Russell Lynne Talley David Victor Warren Washington Guang Zhang 2014 Copyright Yangyang Xu, 2014 All rights reserved. The dissertation of Yangyang Xu is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on micro-film and electronically: ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ Chair University of California, San Diego 2014 iii DEDICATION To My family iv TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE ......................................................................................................... iii DEDICATION ................................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................... v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................. x LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... xiv LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... xxiii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... xxviii VITA ............................................................................................................................... xxx ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION ..................................................................... xxxii Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Black carbon aerosols ............................................................................................ 1 1.2 BC’s radiative forcing ............................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 Previous studies .............................................................................................. 2 1.2.3 An observation-based method to estimate BC forcing: California case study 5 1.3 BC’s climatic impact ............................................................................................. 6 1.3.1 BC influences climate through multiple mechanisms .................................... 6 1.3.2 Previous studies on the impact of Asian aerosols ........................................... 8 1.4 Short-lived climate pollutants and climate change mitigation ............................... 9 1.4.1 BC as a short-lived climate pollutant .............................................................. 9 v 1.4.2 SLCPs’ implications on sea level rise ........................................................... 11 1.4.3 Other important SLCPs ................................................................................. 12 1.5 The scope of this dissertation ............................................................................... 12 Figures .......................................................................................................................... 14 References ..................................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2 Constraining radiative forcing of carbonaceous aerosols over Asia with observations and CESM1/CAM5 ..................................................................................... 23 Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 23 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 24 2.2 Methods ............................................................................................................... 26 2.2.1 “Top-down” observation methods ................................................................ 27 2.2.2 “Bottom-up” modeling methods ................................................................... 28 2.3 Results .................................................................................................................. 30 2.4 Discussions .......................................................................................................... 32 2.4.1 Sensitivity of model version ......................................................................... 33 2.4.2 Emission inventory biases ............................................................................. 33 2.4.3 Radiative parameters: implications on organic carbon absorption ............... 36 2.5 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 38 Tables ............................................................................................................................ 41 Figures .......................................................................................................................... 45 References ..................................................................................................................... 50 Chapter 3 Latitudinally asymmetric response of global surface temperature: Implications for regional climate change .......................................................................... 54 vi Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 54 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 55 3.1.1 Factors governing latitudinal and regional patterns of temperature changes 55 3.1.2 Previous studies on large-scale pattern of surface temperature change ........ 57 3.2 Surface temperature change in the 20th century: latitudinal asymmetry ............. 59 3.3 Understanding latitudinal asymmetry .................................................................. 61 3.4 Implications for regional climate changes: present and future ............................ 65 Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................ 68 Figures .......................................................................................................................... 69 Supplementary Table .................................................................................................... 73 Supplementary Figures ................................................................................................. 74 References ..................................................................................................................... 79 Chapter 4 Climate response to black carbon: with focus on high elevation warming and snow pack retreat in Tibet and Himalayas ................................................................. 82 Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 82 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 83 4.2 Methods ............................................................................................................... 87 4.2.1 Model descriptions ........................................................................................ 87 4.2.2 Design of experiments .................................................................................. 88 4.3 Simulated forcing and model response of temperature and precipitation ........... 90 4.3.1 Simulated forcing .......................................................................................... 90 4.3.2 Temperature response at global and hemispheric scale ................................ 92 vii 4.3.3 Hydrological cycle response ......................................................................... 94 4.4 Enhanced warming and snow reduction over Tibet due to BC ........................... 95 4.4.1 Modeled enhanced warming at high altitude ................................................ 95 4.4.2 Mechanism of elevated warming due to BC ................................................. 98 4.4.3 Reduction of snow fraction and snow depth ............................................... 100 4.5 Implication of snow and ice reduction ............................................................... 102 4.5.1 Surface albedo decrease .............................................................................. 102 4.5.2 Seasonality of the impact on river runoff and hydrology ........................... 102 4.6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 103 Tables .......................................................................................................................... 105 Figures .......................................................................................................................
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