BENDING THE CURVE

executive summary

Ten scalable solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability “We must combine rigor and imagination to confront climate change: the rigor of scientific facts with the imagination to perceive what is now unseen – the dangers that lie ahead if we do not act.”

Honorable Edmund G. Brown, Jr. Speech given at the UN Foundation Governor of California dinner in New York City in honor September 25, 2015 of the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy of Sciences for its role in shaping the Vatican’s position on climate change as espoused in Pope Francis’ encyclical, Laudato Si’ “We are the University of California, and there is no reason that UC can’t lead the world in this quest, as it has in so many others.”

President Janet Napolitano Statement issued during the University of California announcement of the Carbon 2013 Neutrality Initiative of the University of California This Executive Summary should be cited as follows:

Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Juliann E. Allison, Maximilian Auffhammer, David Auston, Anthony D. Barnosky, Lifang Chiang, William D. Collins, Steven J. Davis, Fonna Forman, Susanna B. Hecht, Daniel Kammen, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, Teenie Matlock, Daniel Press, Douglas Rotman, Scott Samuelsen, Gina Solomon, David G. Victor, Byron Washom, 2015: Executive Summary of the Report, Bending the Curve: 10 scalable solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability. Published by the University of California, October 27, 2015.

The authors acknowledge senior editor Jon Christensen of UCLA, for help with editing and for improving the readability of this executive summary. UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Bending the Curve: Executive Summary

TABLE OF CONTENTS

part one foreword 2 I. Seizing the Moment 3 II. We Are at a Crossroads 4 III. Bending the Curve 5 IV. The California Experience: 1960 to 2015 6 V. The UC Carbon Neutrality Initiative 7

part two the solutions 8 I. 10 Scalable Solutions 10 II. Unique Aspects of the 10 Solutions 13 III. Pathways for Implementing the 10 Solutions 14

part three the urgency, the human dimensions, 23 and the need for scalable solutions I. How Did We Get Here? 24 II. Carbon Dioxide Is Not the Only Problem 25 III. Planetary-Scale Warming: How Large and How Soon? 26 IV. Facing the Worst Scenario: the Fat Tail 27 V. From Climate Change to Climate Disruption: 28 Amplifying Feedbacks VI. The Human Dimension: Public Health and Food 31 and Water Security VII. Environmental Equity, Ethics and Justice: What Is 33 Our Responsibility?

Citations 34 Authors 37 Research Foci 38 PART ONE FOREWORD FOREWORD I. Seizing the Moment

Climate change is scientifically incontrovertible. What the world urgently needs now are scalable solutions for bending the curve — flattening the upward trajectory of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and consequent global climate change. This executive summary of the full report, Bending the Curve: 10 scalable solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability, presents pragmatic paths for achieving carbon neutrality and climate stability in California, the United States and the world. More than 50 researchers and scholars — from a wide range of disciplines across the University of California system — formed a climate solutions group and came together in recent months to identify these solutions, many of which emerge from UC research as well as the research of colleagues around the world. Taken together, these solutions can bend the curve of climate change. The full report will be published in spring 2016 after peer review. This report is inspired by California’s recent pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, and by the University of California’s pledge to become carbon neutral by 2025. What is taking place in California today is exactly the sort of large-scale demonstration project the planet needs. And this statewide demonstration project is composed of many of the kinds of solutions that can be scaled up around the world. Over the past half century, California has provided a remarkable example for the world by achieving dramatic reductions in air pollution, while continuing to grow economically. In this report, we propose a set of strategies for combating climate change and growing the economy in California, the nation and the world, while building present-day and intergenerational wealth, and improving the well-being of people and the planet. The University of California has played a key role in California’s pioneering leadership in energy and environmental policy through research, teaching and public service, and currently is partnering with local, state, federal and international leaders in the public, private and philanthropic sectors to address our pressing climate change challenges. We still have much more to do here in California. We are eager to share these lessons with the world at the upcoming global climate summit in Paris, and together build a better, safer, healthier and more equitable world, while bending the curve of climate change. As we make the changes necessary to achieve carbon neutrality at the University of California, employing solutions that can be scaled up to developing energy and climate solutions for the world, hundreds of thousands of faculty, students and staff across our 10 campuses and three affiliated national laboratories will be learning and sharing with the world how we can bend the curve of greenhouse gas emissions and stop global warming through taking bold yet pragmatic steps and lowering the barriers so others can follow.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 3 II. We Are at a Crossroads and We Must Make a Choice

Climate change is real and it is happening now.

This is evident in the increased 2011 was around 50 billion tons and frequency and intensity of storms, is growing at a rate of 2.2 percent hurricanes, floods, heat waves, per year. If this rate of increase droughts and forest fires. These continues unabated, the world is on extreme events, as well as the target to warm by about 2 degrees spread of certain infectious diseases, Celsius in less than 40 years. By the worsened air pollution, drinking end of the century, warming could water contamination and food range from 2.5 degrees Celsius to shortages, are creating the beginning a catastrophic 7.8 degrees Celsius. of what soon will be a global public We are transitioning from climate health crisis. A whole new navigable change to climate disruption. ocean is opening in the Arctic. With such alarming possibilities Sea levels are rising, causing major the planet is highly likely to cross damage in the world’s most populous several tipping points within cities. All this has resulted from decades, triggering changes that warming the planet by only about could last thousands of years. All of 0.9 degrees Celsius, primarily from this is occurring against a backdrop human activities. Since 1750, we of growing needs and pressures by have emitted 2 trillion metric tons humans, as our population is set to of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other increase by at least 2 billion people greenhouse gases. The emission in by 2050.

4 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA III. Bending the Curve

SLCP CLIMATE BENEFITS Avoided Global Warming by 2050 (Climate and Clean Air Coalition, United BAU reference Nations Environment Programme) (Business As Usual)

CO2 only

BC+CH4 only

BC + CH4 0.5°C

HFCs 0.1°C Full Mitigation CO +SLCPs SLCPs 0.6°C 2 (BC+CH4+HFCs)

Simulated temperature change under various mitigation scenarios

“Bending the curve” refers to methane (CH4), black carbon, 2100, which would avert most flattening the upward trajectory hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs, which are disastrous climate disruptions. This is of human-caused warming trends. used in refrigerants) and tropospheric our goal in this report. Reducing CO emissions by 80 ozone. If currently available 2 In this executive summary of the percent by 2050 and moving to technologies for reducing SLCPs full Bending the Curve report, we carbon neutrality post-2050 would were fully implemented by 2030, describe 10 practical solutions to begin to bend the temperature projected warming could be reduced mitigate climate change that are curve downward and reduce by as much as 0.6 degrees Celsius scalable to the state, the nation overall warming by as much as 1.5 within two to four decades, keeping and the world. There are many such degrees Celsius by 2100.1 More the mid-century warming well below reports offering recommendations rapid reductions can be achieved 2 degrees Celsius relative to the and solutions to keep climate change by reducing four short-lived climate pre-industrial average. This could give under manageable levels. We take pollutants. These short-lived climate the world additional time to achieve full account of such action-oriented pollutants, known as SLCPs, are net-zero emissions or even negative reports and offer some unique carbon emissions through scaling solutions to complement them. Many up existing and emerging carbon- 1 Temperature estimates for future warming of the solutions proposed here are neutral and carbon sequestration trends as well as for the mitigated warming being field tested on University of given throughout this report have a 95 technologies and methods. Achieving California campuses and elsewhere percent probability range of ±50 percent. both maximum possible mitigation of For example, a value of 2 degrees Celsius in California. The background, the SLCPs and carbon neutrality beyond in the report is the central value with a 95 criteria, the quantitative narrative percent range of 1 to 4 degrees Celsius. 2050 could hold global warming to and justification for these solutions That is, there is a 95 percent probability the about 2 degrees Celsius through true value will be within that range. can be found in the full report.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 5 IV. The California Experience: 1960 to 2015

In the economic boom following generated from renewables (not Gov. Brown issued an executive

World War II — fueled by large including hydropower), second order setting a goal of reducing CO2 increases in population, vehicles, only to Germany (which generates emissions to 40 percent below 1990 diesel trucks and coal-burning 27 percent of its electricity from levels by 2030, which is the pathway industries — California recorded renewables). These impressive required for stabilizing climate below some of the highest air pollution environmental gains did not hurt 2 degrees Celsius relative to the levels, competing with the city of California’s economy, which grew at pre-industrial average. The legacy London for the dubious title of the an impressive pace with the highest of California’s air quality and energy worst polluted region in the world. gross domestic product of all states efficiency programs since the 1960s Since then, California has made in the nation, constituting the world’s and the depth of expertise at CARB a remarkable turnaround. From eighth largest economy. California on the multi-dimensional aspects 1960 to the present, California has has shown how to reduce fossil fuel of climate change mitigation have reduced levels of particles and gases related pollution emissions while placed California in a unique position related to air pollution by as much sustaining strong economic growth. to embark on such ambitious low as 90 percent. carbon pathways. Emboldened by this favorable The concentration of black carbon experience in regulating air pollution, While its geography, equable was reduced by 90 percent across California in 2002 passed the first climate and commerce have favored California. In the meantime, fuel law in the country that targeted green growth, this progress came consumption for the transportation greenhouse gas emissions from as a result of five decades of sector increased by a factor of five vehicles. In 2006, it enacted the consistent and innovative policies and population grew from 15.5 precedent-setting Global Warming that relied on sound research, million (1959) to 39 million (2014). Solutions act and gave authority innovative development and California also has made impressive to California’s air pollution agency, aggressive implementation of gains in energy efficiency and in the California Air Resources Board policies. While California relied only lowering its carbon footprint. Its (CARB), to enact policies to reduce on command and control regulation per capita energy consumption is its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 until the 1990s, the state began among the lowest in the United levels by 2020. The state responded rolling out market incentives for States (48th) and its per capita with a suite of measures that include controlling nitrous oxide emissions electricity consumption is the a cap and trade program, a low and demonstrated the efficacy of lowest — roughly half of the U.S. carbon fuel standard for vehicles, market instruments to mitigate per capita consumption. automobile emission standards certain types of emissions. Relying expected to reduce emissions by 30 on this experience, CARB launched California is one of the most energy- percent by 2016, renewable portfolio a cap and trade system in 2013 efficient and greenest economies in standards for utilities, energy to reduce carbon emissions from the world. It is the second-to-least efficiency programs for buildings and utilities, industrial facilities and fuel carbon-intense economy in the world appliances, and transit and land use distributors, covering 85 percent of next to France, which relies heavily programs to reduce vehicle miles California’s emissions, making it the on nuclear power. It also is a leader traveled. This has been followed by most comprehensive cap and trade in renewable power generation another milestone in 2015 when market in the world. with 23 percent of its electricity

6 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA V. The Carbon Neutrality Initiative of the University Of California

California cannot address climate This report is an outgrowth of the Examples of current projects related change on its own, but the state University of California President’s to the Carbon Neutrality Initiative can serve as a living laboratory for Carbon Neutrality Initiative. The are described in the full report. These “the art of the possible,” sharing its authors of this report and our include an 80 megawatt solar array good practices and cooperating colleagues at the University of in the Central Valley (the largest at with other states and nations to California’s 10 campuses and three any U.S. university), an experimental mitigate their emissions. To achieve affiliated national laboratories are anaerobic digester that is using food this goal, California has created strongly motivated by the special waste to produce bio-methane, a an “Under 2 MOU,” an agreement demands of this ambitious goal, large fuel cell that generates 2.8 Gov. Brown co-founded with the and we are also motivated by megawatts of electricity from a state of Baden-Württemberg in corresponding goals for the state municipal waste water treatment Germany. The “Under 2 MOU” is of California, the nation and the facility, smart lighting and smart an agreement among subnational world. The UC Carbon Neutrality building systems that dramatically jurisdictions around the world to Initiative is dedicated to achieving reduce energy consumption and a limit the increase in global average net-zero greenhouse gas emissions solar greenhouse that selectively temperature to below 2 degrees by 2025 across all 10 UC campuses. harvests light for solar electricity. Celsius. Since the global agreement It should be emphasized that a net- These and other works at the was first signed in May 2015, a total zero emission target is enormously University of California illustrate the of 45 jurisdictions in 20 countries demanding and requires careful commitment that we have made to and five continents, with a total strategic planning to arrive at a mitigate climate change. GDP of US $14 trillion, have signed mix of technologies, behavioral or endorsed the agreement. measures and policies, as well as highly effective communication — all of which, taken together, are far more challenging than simply reducing emissions by some 40 percent or even 80 percent. Each campus has a unique set of requirements based on its current energy consumption and emissions. Factors such as a local climate, reliance on cogeneration facilities, access to wholesale electricity markets and whether the campus has a hospital and medical school, shape the specific challenges of the campuses, each of which is a “living laboratory” for learning and adapting.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 7 PART TWO THE SOLUTIONS

THE SOLUTIONS I. 10 Scalable Solutions

These 10 pragmatic, scalable solutions — all of which can be implemented immediately and expanded rapidly — will clean our air and keep global warming under 2 degrees Celsius and, at the same time, provide breathing room for the world to fully transition to carbon neutrality in the coming decades. More detail on each solution can be found in Section III.

1 3 5

Bend the warming curve immediately Deepen the global culture of climate Adopt market-based instruments by reducing short-lived climate collaboration by designing venues to create efficient incentives for pollutants (SLCPs) and sustainably where stakeholders, community and businesses and individuals to reduce by replacing current fossil-fueled religious leaders converge around CO2 emissions. These can include energy systems with carbon neutral concrete problems with researchers cap and trade or carbon pricing technologies. Achieve the SLCP and scholars from all academic and should employ mechanisms to reduction targets prescribed in solution disciplines, with the overall goal of contain costs. Adopt the high quality #9 by 2030 to cut projected warming initiating collaborative actions to emissions inventories, monitoring by approximately 50 percent by 2050. mitigate climate disruption. and enforcement mechanisms To limit long-term global warming to necessary to make these approaches under 2 degrees Celsius, cumulative work. In settings where these emissions from now to 2050 must be 4 institutions do not credibly exist, less than 1 trillion tons and approach alternative approaches such as zero emissions post-2050. Solutions Scale up subnational models direct regulation may be the better #7 to #9 cover technological solutions of governance and collaboration approach — although often at higher to accomplish these targets. around the world to embolden and cost than market-based systems. energize national and international action. Use the California 2 examples to help other state- and 6 city-level jurisdictions become Foster a global culture of climate living laboratories for renewable Narrowly target direct regulatory action through coordinated public technologies and for regulatory as measures — such as rebates and communication and education at local well as market-based solutions, and efficiency and renewable energy to global scales. Combine technology build cross-sector collaborations portfolio standards — at high and policy solutions with innovative among urban stakeholders because emissions sectors not covered approaches to changing social creating sustainable cities is a key by market-based policies. Create attitudes and behavior. to global change. powerful incentives that continually reward improvements to bring down emissions while building political coalitions in favor of climate policy. Terminate subsidies that encourage emission-intensive activities. Expand subsidies that encourage innovation in low emission technologies.

10 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Of the 10 solutions proposed here, seven 7 9 (solutions #1 and #4 through #9) have been or are currently being implemented in California (see “The California Experience: Promote immediate widespread Immediately make maximum use 1960 to 2015” in this executive summary). use of mature technologies such as of available technologies combined California’s experience provides valuable photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery with regulations to reduce methane lessons, and in some cases direct models, and hydrogen fuel cell electric light- emissions by 50 percent and black for scaling these solutions to other states duty vehicles, and more efficient carbon emissions by 90 percent. and nations. Decades of research on end-use devices, especially in Phase out hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) University of California campuses and lighting, air conditioning, appliances by 2030 by amending the Montreal in national laboratories managed by the university contributed significantly to the and industrial processes. These Protocol. In addition to the climate development of these solutions. Several technologies will have even greater and health benefits described of the renewable energy technology impact if they are the target of under solution #1, this solution will solutions in solutions #6 and #7 have been market-based or direct regulatory provide access to clean cooking for field tested on University of California solutions such as those described in the poorest 3 billion people who campuses (see “The Carbon Neutrality Initiative of the University of California” solutions #5 and #6, and have the spend hours each day collecting solid in this report). Scaling these solutions to potential to achieve 30 percent to biomass fuels and burning them other states and nations and eventually 40 percent reduction in fossil fuel indoors for cooking. globally will require attitudinal and behavioral changes covered in solutions CO2 emissions by 2030. #2 and #3. 10 UC researchers currently are working 8 on many of these solutions, along with Regenerate damaged natural colleagues around the world. UC faculty Aggressively support and promote ecosystems and restore soil organic also are involved in research on solution #10 to identify and improve carbon sinks innovations to accelerate the carbon to improve natural sinks in natural and managed ecosystems by complete electrification of energy for carbon (through afforestation, expanding existing, proven practices and transportation systems reducing deforestation and worldwide. The cost of fully implementing and improve building efficiency. restoration of soil organic carbon). these solutions will be significant, but Support development of lower-cost Implement food waste reduction California shows that it can be done while maintaining a thriving economy. And the energy storage for applications programs and energy recovery cost is well justified in light of the social in transportation, resilient large- systems to maximize utilization costs of carbon emissions, including scale and distributed micro-scale of food produced and recover 7 million deaths every year due to air grids, and residential uses. Support energy from food that is not pollution linked to fossil fuel and biomass development of new energy storage consumed. Global deployment of burning which also releases climate warming pollutants to the atmosphere. technologies, including batteries, these measures has the potential super-capacitors, compressed air, to reduce 20 percent of the current If we can scale these 10 solutions beginning now, we can dramatically bend hydrogen and thermal storage, as well 50 billion tons of emissions of CO 2 the curve of deadly air pollution and as advances in heat pumps, efficient and other greenhouse gases global warming worldwide. California lighting, fuel cells, smart buildings and and, in addition, meet the recently can’t bend the curve on its own. Neither systems integration. These innovative approved sustainable development can the University of California. But we technologies are essential for meeting goals by creating wealth for the can be part of powerful networks and collaborations to scale these solutions. the target of 80 percent reduction in poorest 3 billion.

CO2 emissions by 2050.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 11

II. Unique Aspects of the 10 Solutions

• This report is one of the first • This report recognizes that intra- of a culture of climate action documents that treats mitigation regional, intra-generational through localized interventions of air pollution and climate and inter-generational that lower barriers for citizens disruption under one framework. equity and ethical issues are to take concrete steps to The solutions proposed here inherent in climate change participate in solving our recognize the fact that fossil and any solutions to climate climate crisis. fuel combustion — which change. These issues arise in • These solutions recognize produces greenhouse gases part because consumption by the fact that fundamental — also produces particles and about 15 percent of the world’s changes in human attitudes gases such as ozone and black population contributes about and behaviors toward nature carbon, which also contribute 60 percent of climate pollution; and each other are critical to global warming. Others, such while 40 percent of the for bending the curve of air as sulfates, cause sunlight to population, who contribute very pollution and global warming. dim and dry the planet. We can little to this pollution, as well as As a result, two of the solutions accelerate solutions and gain generations unborn, are likely to deal with bringing researchers some time for long-term change suffer the worst consequences and scholars together with to a carbon-neutral world by of climate disruption. community and religious bending the curve of all of these • These solutions represent leaders and stakeholders to pollutants immediately and an integrated approach that lower barriers to addressing simultaneously as part of one includes familiar goals for climate change from the local unified strategy. achieving carbon neutrality level on up. • These 10 solutions leverage the through renewable energy, • This report recognizes the power of concern for human with new goals for reducing fundamental importance of health worldwide. People care SLCPs immediately; building effective communication to about human health. Burning on California’s success to reach and engage diverse fossil fuels causes both air encourage sub-national constituencies throughout pollution and climate changes governance, regulations and the world to bend the curve that result in human illnesses market-based instruments; of emissions and warming, and death. As the Lancet and innovative approaches achieve carbon neutrality and Commission concluded in June in education, communication stabilize Earth’s climate. 2015: “The effects of climate and incentives to encourage change are being felt today and attitudinal and behavioral future projections represent changes. To be effective, this an unacceptably high and integrated strategy requires potentially catastrophic risk engagement by diverse to human health.” stakeholders and the creation

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 13 III. Pathways for Implementing the 10 Solutions

Our 10 scalable solutions Science Solutions Cluster • Phase out the current fossil- fueled energy system and are grouped in six clusters 1. Bend the warming curve replace it with a diverse mix listed below. immediately by reducing short- of carbon-neutral and carbon lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and • Science Solutions Cluster sequestration technologies. sustainably by replacing current California’s targets of 50 percent • Societal Transformation fossil-fueled energy systems Solutions Cluster renewables in power generation, with carbon neutral technologies. a 50 percent increase in energy Achieve the SLCP reduction targets • Governance Solutions Cluster efficiency, and a 40 percent prescribed in solution #9 by 2030 • Market- and Regulations-Based reduction in greenhouse gas to cut projected warming by Solutions Cluster emissions by 2030 provide an approximately 50 percent by 2050. excellent medium-term roadmap • Technology-Based Solutions To limit long-term global warming to for the nation and the world. If Cluster under 2 degrees Celsius, cumulative carbon emissions are reduced by emissions from now to 2050 must be • Natural and Managed 80 percent by 2050, transitioning less than 1 trillion tons and approach Ecosystem Solutions Cluster to zero emissions soon after, zero emissions post-2050. Solutions this action along with the SLCP #7 to #9 cover technological solutions mitigation action can keep global to accomplish these targets. warming below 2 degrees Celsius • Maximize use of existing for the rest of the century. technologies to cut emissions • Set up calibrated monitoring of methane and black carbon to quantify trends in emission immediately. Since both are air sources and verify and make pollutants, air pollution control public the bending of ambient agencies can require this now. concentration curves of all air This also will reduce another and climate pollutants. short-lived climate pollutant, ozone. Phase out HFCs immediately — replacement Societal Transformation refrigerant compounds are Solutions Cluster available now. Mitigation of The intra-regional, intra-generational SLCPs also has significant local and inter-generational equity issues benefits, saving 2.4 million lives of climate change raise major lost to outdoor pollution and questions of ethics and justice. These 3 million lives lost to indoor questions compel us to reflect deeply pollution each year, and saving on our responsibility to each other, as much as 140 million tons of to nature, and to future inhabitants maize, rice, soybean and wheat of this planet — Homo sapiens and all lost annually to air pollution. other living beings alike. It is for these reasons that societal transformation merits such high ranking in this

14 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA report, even above regulatory and technological solutions. harmed by climate change, and that energy access Top-down action will be difficult to implement without choices based on more sustainable, low-carbon substantial support from the general public, which can be sources for these populations will result in prevention accelerated by societal transformations from the bottom up. of climate disruption and collective harm to the planet and biodiversity. 2. Foster a global culture of climate action through coordinated public communication and education at • Create and integrate curricula at all levels of local to global scales. Combine technology and policy education, from kindergarten through college, to solutions with innovative approaches to changing social educate a new generation about climate change attitudes and behavior. impacts and solutions. • Promote coordinated information campaigns to 3. Deepen the global culture of climate collaboration. inform choices available to strategic constituents: Design venues where stakeholders, community and religious leaders converge around concrete problems with o The world’s top carbon emitters, numbering researchers and scholars from all academic disciplines, 1 billion people, both individuals and institutions, with the overall goal of initiating collaborative actions to who contribute about 60 percent of the world’s mitigate climate disruption. greenhouse gas emissions. This targeted audience is easy to reach as they have readily available • Climate solutions require integrated behavioral, access to information technologies. ethical, political, social, humanistic and scientific o Investors in and supporters of sustainable knowledge. Public and private institutions at every development throughout the world, by providing scale can create venues where decision makers, information on best practices in clean energy business leaders, community and religious leaders, access for the world’s poorest 3 billion citizens with and academics spanning the natural sciences, social very low carbon footprints. Among the energy poor sciences, humanities and arts converge around are forest managers who offset the consumption concrete problems, with the goal of creating and energy patterns of other consumers. dialogues, developing common understanding, and fostering collaborative action to mitigate climate o The 3 billion low carbon emitters can serve as disruption. Public universities must use their public partners in worldwide de-carbonization by actively missions and mobilize their knowledge and resources committing themselves, their families and their to partner with community-based agencies, local communities to learn about and to strategize for school districts and industry partners to educate future access to carbon-neutral energy. locally for climate action. • Make the distribution of accountability and responsibility for sustainable energy consumption clear • Initiate a culture of climate action by localizing to all constituencies through accurate, transparent, interventions. Research shows that behavioral change widely available energy calculators that reveal how and positive public opinion are more likely when the much energy different constituencies are consuming. impacts of climate are recognized at a local scale and when barriers are lowered for people to participate in • Provide evidence-based indicators of the cumulative concrete actions to solve our climate crisis. impacts of climate injustices. Past studies have demonstrated that the poorest 3 billion, whose • Religious leaders can integrate protection of the emissions account for only 5 percent of total environment with their traditional efforts to protect emissions, will nevertheless be disproportionately the poor and the weak. A model exhortation in this

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 15 vein is Pope Francis’ encyclical Laudato Si’, which • State-level climate policy should encourage stated: “We are faced not with two separate crises, one innovation and commercialization of technologies environmental and the other social, but rather with one and solutions that can replace fossil fuels and complex crisis which is both social and environmental. concurrently enable the poorer nations of the world Strategies for a solution demand an integrated to achieve economic growth with zero and low- approach to combating poverty, restoring dignity to carbon technologies. the excluded, and at the same time protecting nature.” • Accelerate the impact of cities on climate mitigation through: (1) municipal and regional Climate Action Governance Solutions Cluster Plans (CAPs); (2) green infrastructure projects, such 4. Scale up subnational models of governance and as: (a) urban forestry to improve carbon sequestration collaboration around the world to embolden and energize and reduce the urban heat island effect; (b) locally national and international action. Use the California decentralized micro-grids using renewable energy examples to help other state- and city-level jurisdictions sources; (3) smart mobility planning and design for become living laboratories for renewable technologies and active living and healthy place-making (such as mixed- for regulatory as well as market-based solutions, and build use in-fill and transit oriented development), which cross-sector collaborations among urban stakeholders reduces greenhouse gas emissions by making cities because creating sustainable cities is a key to global change. less auto-centric and more walkable and bikeable; (4) incentivizing photovoltaic retrofits and new • State- and city-level jurisdictions can set the standards net-zero energy technology; and (5) corresponding and the pace for national actions by serving as living civic engagement and public education strategies, laboratories for renewable technologies, regulatory- accompanied by concrete local opportunities for based (“command and control”) strategies and market- participatory climate action, to change attitudes and based solutions. Such efforts also speed up translation behaviors. of science to policy actions, especially if those who have been marginalized in systems of governance are o The 25th session of the UN-Habitat’s Governing included in authentic ways that advance justice and Council (April 2015) approved new International equity. Over the past several decades, California has Guidelines on Urban and Territorial Planning shown that subnational leadership in technological which highlight the vital role cities can play in development, regulatory action, market-based addressing climate change and other pressing solutions and provision of equitable benefits has social and ecological problems of the 21st century. demonstrated a viable path forward for other states o Cities cover less than 2 percent of Earth’s surface, and nations. but they consume 78 percent of the world’s energy and produce more than 60 percent of all • National and subnational leaders must promote carbon dioxide and significant amounts of other international action and cooperation in order for greenhouse gas emissions (UN-Habitat 2015). unilateral climate policies — such as California’s climate mitigation mandate AB 32 or the American Clean Energy and Security Act — to succeed and to minimize potential detrimental effects, such as the risk of emissions leakages which arise when only one jurisdiction (California, for example) imposes climate policy but other jurisdictions do not.

16 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Market- and Regulations-Based Solutions Cluster As a matter of policy design, we have chosen not to come down in favor of either market based or regulatory 5. Adopt market-based instruments to create efficient approaches, but to include both. Specifically, we incentives for businesses and individuals to reduce CO 2 recommend the following: emissions. These can include cap and trade or carbon pricing and should employ mechanisms to contain costs. • It is imperative to anticipate and design climate Adopt the high quality emissions inventories, monitoring policies in a way that can contain compliance costs. and enforcement mechanisms necessary to make these Pure regulation leaves policies susceptible to large approaches work. In settings where these institutions do increases in compliance costs, particularly in the not credibly exist, alternative approaches such as direct presence of capacity or production constraints that regulation may be the better approach — although often are inherent in energy markets. at higher cost than market-based systems. • Another artificial market distortion that must be 6. Narrowly target direct regulatory measures — such as corrected is subsidization of fossil fuels worldwide, rebates and efficiency and renewable energy portfolio which provides carbon-intensive fuels with an standards — at high emissions sectors not covered by advantage over low-carbon fuels. Where necessary, market-based policies. Create powerful incentives that charge royalties for fossil fuels extracted on public continually reward improvements to bring down emissions lands and territorial waters. while building political coalitions in favor of climate policy. • Regulation requires extremely sophisticated Terminate subsidies that encourage emission-intensive institutions and enforcement (such as the California activities. Expand subsidies that encourage innovation in Air Resources Board) to prevent leakage and to low-emission technologies. look ahead and assess how regulatory decisions The problem of emissions won’t solve itself. Policy makers interact with business strategy and the evolution of must send decisive signals to firms and individuals. So technology. far, very few places in the world have adopted strong • Revenues from cap and trade or carbon taxes should greenhouse gas mitigation policies. California is an be used to fund aggressive pursuit of innovative new exception, but California is less than 1 percent of the global technologies that can bend the curve and protect problem. If we are to lead, we need to adopt policies that disadvantaged communities and those adversely others can emulate; this is tricky because the best policies affected by cap and trade or other regulatory will vary with local circumstances. In general, there are two strategies (for example, through payments for flavors of emissions policies: direct regulation and market- environmental services to rural communities engaged based (cap and trade and carbon pricing) regulation. in low carbon development paths, such as forest Economic theory and empirical evidence tell us that dependent communities). market approaches are more cost-effective. In a few cases where market based control systems have been used at scale — such as trading of lead pollution, trading of sulfur dioxide pollution, and European and Californian carbon markets — that theory is borne out by evidence. Yet it is already clear that market approaches are politically very difficult to implement in part for the very reasons that many analysts find them attractive: They make the real costs of action highly transparent.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 17 Technology-Based Solutions Cluster • Technologies exist today that can provide significant carbon reductions if used widely. Achieve a more The technological measures under solutions #7 and #8, if reliable and resilient electric grid with at least fully implemented by 2050, will reduce global warming by 90 percent of all new generation capacity by 2030 as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, and combined from distributed and renewable technologies, such with measures to reduce SLCPs in solution #9 will keep as photovoltaics, wind turbines, fuel cells, biogas warming below 2 degrees Celsius during the 21st century and geothermal. and beyond. • Expand electrification of highly-efficient end- Global emissions of CO and other greenhouse gases in 2 use devices, especially lighting, electric vehicles, 2010 totaled 49 gigatons of equivalent CO per year, with 2 machinery and plug load appliances. 75 percent due to increases in CO2 and 25 percent from other greenhouse gases. This estimate from the IPCC (2013) • Examples from UC campuses demonstrate that does not include two of the SLCPs, ozone and black carbon. deep energy efficiency investments are immediately amenable to widespread implementation. About 32 gigatons per year are due to CO2 from fossil fuels and industrial processes. The challenge for technology • Accelerate the transition from fossil to zero-carbon, solutions is to bring down emissions of CO to less than 2 locally sourced transportation fuels such as hydrogen 6 gigatons per year by 2050, and reduce the emissions of to power fuel-cell-powered electric vehicles, and low- methane and black carbon by 50 percent and 90 percent carbon grid electricity to power battery electric vehicles, respectively by 2030. This in turn will reduce ozone levels by to meet the carbon reduction required from the light- at least 30 percent. In addition, HFCs must be phased out duty and goods movement transportation sectors. completely by 2030. To indicate the importance of these • Overall, these measures, if implemented with non-CO2 mitigation measures: HFCs are the fastest growing greenhouse gases; if emissions continue to grow at current market and regulatory measures, can mitigate about rates, HFCs alone will warm the climate by 0.1 degrees 10 gigatons per year of CO2 emissions by 2030. Celsius by 2050 and 0.5–1.0 degrees Celsius by 2100. 8. Aggressively support and promote innovations to 7. Promote immediate widespread use of mature accelerate the complete electrification of energy and technologies such as photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery transportation systems and improve building efficiency. and hydrogen fuel cell electric light-duty vehicles and Support development of lower cost energy storage more efficient end-use devices, especially in lighting, air for applications in transportation, resilient large-scale conditioning, appliances and industrial processes. These and distributed micro-scale grids, and residential uses. technologies will have even greater impact if they are the Support research and development of a portfolio of new target of market-based or direct regulatory solutions such energy storage technologies, including batteries, super- as those described in solutions #5 and #6 and have the capacitors, compressed air, hydrogen and thermal storage, potential to achieve 30 percent to 40 percent reduction in as well as advances in heat pumps, efficient lighting, fuel cells, smart buildings and systems integration. These fossil fuel CO2 emissions by 2030. innovative technologies are essential for meeting the • Use of renewables and other low carbon energy sources target of 80 percent reduction in CO emissions by 2050. are increasing rapidly. Catalyzed by falling prices, in 2 2014, renewables accounted for about 50 percent of all • This solution will require significant investments in new power generation in the world (primarily in China, both basic and applied research and development, Japan, Germany and the United States), representing an demonstration of prototypes, and commercial investment of about $270 billion. deployment.

18 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • Energy storage is a vital enabling technology that of next-generation intelligent and more efficient holds the key to transitioning from fossil fuels for 200 lm/Watt LED lighting products. These will be our vehicular needs and managing the intermittency optimized for color and brightness to improve work of renewables on the electric power grid. Over the and school productivity and building efficiency. past five years, electric vehicles have been entering • Residential natural gas consumption can be reduced the market and storage technologies are being by 50 percent or more with widespread deployment tested now on various grid applications, mainly of heat pumps and systems coupled to solar thermal driven by innovations in lithium-ion batteries and and solar power generation. To accelerate this goal, hydrogen. While these innovations are promising, we recommend deployment of an incentive program more research and development is needed to reduce of rebates comparable to those for energy efficiency the cost and ensure widespread deployment of appliances. We also recommend the elimination of battery and hydrogen storage. To achieve carbon- disincentives such as outdated and inappropriate free electrification, complementary energy storage regulations for ground source heat pump installations. technologies over a variety of scales must be Although more challenging, widespread deployment developed and deployed, requiring a new generation of heat pumps in larger commercial buildings also is of sophisticated dynamic system control methods. possible, but will require further investments in applied • Smart grid and micro-grid technology make possible research and development to accomplish comparable the increasing penetration of intermittent solar reductions in natural gas consumption. A promising and wind generation resources, the emergence approach that now is being tested is the capture and integration of plug-in electric vehicles into the of waste heat (and water) from cooling towers and grid infrastructure, and a proactive response to recirculating it with heat pumps into the heating loop the increasing demand for enhanced grid resiliency, of buildings. thereby meeting the challenging environmental • The development of zero-carbon fuels such as goals associated with climate change, air quality and hydrogen and highly-efficient engines with zero water consumption. The evolution of this technology criteria pollutant emissions is required to substantially represents a paradigm shift. Our power grids will be reduce the carbon footprint from light-duty vehicles designed, configured and operated in the future across and goods movement (medium-duty and heavy-duty a range of scales, from smart home devices to central vehicles, locomotives and ships) and, at the same plant power generation. Smart micro-grid systems time, achieve urban air quality goals. also enable the ability to go off the main grid, which is especially important in regions that historically have • While full electrification is an achievable goal for light- been deprived of energy access, such as developing duty and medium-duty transportation, some form countries in Africa and Asia. of environmentally friendly renewable fuel solutions will be needed for heavy-duty transport, such as • Advanced lighting based on efficient light-emitting algal-based biofuels. Using algae, we can capture diode (LED) technology is now commercially available and beneficially reuse carbon dioxide produced from and has a pay-back time of only one to two years. existing fossil energy sources such as natural gas The replacement of all incandescent, metal halide electricity generation to produce diesel and jet fuels. and fluorescent lighting fixtures with LED lighting Using wastewater and saline waters for algae growth, can reduce energy consumption from lighting by 40 we will not place additional burdens on our limited percent. Investments are needed to capture further fresh water resources, and can remediate pollutants efficiencies, which are possible with the development

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 19 such as nitrogen and phosphate Natural and Managed in sustaining forest ecosystems from wastewaters before they Ecosystem Solutions Cluster as an effective and rapid means reenter the environment to of sequestering carbon and contaminate aquifers or oceans. 10. Regenerate damaged natural achieving carbon neutrality. This Because these currently are ecosystems and restore soil organic also will achieve co-benefits for not scalable in an economically carbon to improve natural sinks biodiversity, hydrological cycles competitive manner, further for carbon (through afforestation, and soil development. research is needed in this area. reducing deforestation and restoration of soil organic carbon). • Support policies that reward 9. Immediately make maximum use Implement food waste reduction complex agro-ecological of available technologies combined programs and energy recovery systems rather than simplified with regulations to reduce methane systems to maximize utilization of tree crop systems. Half the emissions by 50 percent and black food produced and recover energy world is still rural, and rural carbon emissions by 90 percent. from food that is not consumed. communities need to be part Phase out hydrofluorocarbons Global deployment of these of the solution. This can be (HFCs) by 2030 by amending the measures has the potential to reduce facilitated by reforming agrarian Montreal Protocol. In addition to 20 percent of the current 50 billion policy with a focus on managing the climate and health benefits carbon, which in many areas tons of emissions of CO2 and other described under solution #1, this greenhouse gases and, in addition, will involve natural forest solution will provide access to clean meet the recently approved management or agroforestry. cooking for the poorest 3 billion sustainable development goals by • Globally, one-third of food people who spend hours each day creating wealth for the poorest produced is not eaten; in the collecting solid biomass fuels and 3 billion. United States 40 percent is burning them indoors for cooking. • The potential for carbon not eaten. The CO2 and other • The specific technological mitigation from afforestation, greenhouse gases emitted measures for reducing methane reduced deforestation and in producing this wasted and black carbon are described restoration of soil organic carbon food contribute 3.3 gigatons in the table on page 21. These is about 8 to 12 gigatons per year. annually to emissions. And measures were developed when food is thrown away, by an international panel • Integrate payment for methane — which is about 80 environmental services into and reported in UNEP WMO times more potent than CO2 as Report, 2011. global, national and local a greenhouse gas — is released economic systems to support in landfills. forest-dependent communities

20 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA TECHNOLOGICAL MEASURES FOR CURBING SLCP EMISSIONS Measure 1 Sector

CH4 measures

Extended pre-mine degasification and recovery and oxidation of CH4 from ventilation air coal mines Extended recovery and utilization, rather than venting, of associated gas and improved control of Extraction and transport of unintended fugitive emissions from production of oil and natural gas fossil fuels Reduced gas leakage from long-distance transmission pipelines

Separation and treatment of biodegradable municipal waste throught reycling, composting and anaerobic digestion as well as landfill gas collection with combustion/utilization Waste management Upgrading primary wastewater treatment to secondary/tertiary treatment with gas recovery and overflow control

Control of CH4 emissions from livestock, mainly through farm-scale anaerobic digestion of manure from cattle and pigs Agriculture Intermittent aeration of continuously flooded rice paddies

BC measures (affecting BC and other co-emitted compounds)

Diesel particle filters for road and off-road vehicles Transport Elimination of high-emitting vehicles in road and off-road transport

Replacing coal by coal briquettes in cooking and heating stoves Pellet stoves and boilers, using fuel made from recycled wood waste or sawdust, to replace current wood-burning technologies in the residential sector in industrialized countries Residential Introduction of clean-burning biomass stoves for cooking and heating in developing countries2,3 Substitution of clean-burning cookstoves using modern fuels for traditional biomass cookstoves in developing countries2,3

Replacing traditional brick kilns with vertical shaft kilns and hoffman kilns Replacing traditional coke ovens with modern recovery ovens, including the improvement of Industry end-of-pipe abatement measures in developing countries

Ban on open field burning of agricultural waste2 Agriculture

1 There are measures other than those identified in the table that could be implemented. For example, electric cars would have a similar impact to diesel particulate filters but these have not yet been widely introduced; forest fire controls could also be important but are not included due to the difficulty in establishing the proportion of fires that are anthropogenic. 2 Motivated in part by its effect on health and regional climate, including areas of ice and snow. 3 For cookstoves, given their importance for BC emissions, two alternative measures are included.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 21

PART THREE THE URGENCY, THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS, AND THE NEED FOR SCALABLE SOLUTIONS THE URGENCY I. How Did We Get Here?

The invention of the steam engine and the subsequent acquisition of breathtaking technological prowess ANTHROPOCENE: GROWTH IN HUMAN ACTIVITIES (1880s to 1990s) Crutzen (2002) culminating in the current information age two centuries later have led to enormous improvements in human well- Human activity Increase in size being. But the impressive improvement has come at a World population Increased six-fold huge cost to the natural environment. The combination of air and water pollution, species extinction, deforestation Urban population Increased thirteen-fold and climate change has become an existential threat to World economy Increased fourteen-fold life on this planet. The gargantuan transformation of the environment has stimulated ecologists and geologists to Industrial output Increased forty-fold consider whether the Holocene epoch — the past 12,000 Energy use Increased sixteen-fold years of relatively constant climate and environmental conditions that stimulated the development of human Coal production Increased seven-fold civilization — has ended, and a new epoch, the Carbon dioxide emission Increased seventeen-fold Anthropocene, has begun, an epoch that recognizes that human exploitation of Earth has become akin to Sulfur dioxide emission Increased thirteen-fold a geologic force (see side table). Lead emission Increased eight-fold

Most of the changes listed in this table, and many others, Water use Increased nine-fold have occurred in a span of time equivalent to a human lifetime beginning in the 1950s, which is considered the Fish catch Increased thirty-five fold beginning of the so-called “great acceleration” of human Blue whale population 99 percent decrease impacts. This also is the period that has seen the steepest increase in global mean temperatures, global pollution and deforestation. Taken from Climate and Common Good, Statement: P. Dasgupta*, V. Ramanathan*, P. Raven*, Mgr M. Sanchez Sorondo*, M. Archer, P.J. Crutzen, P. Lena, Y.T. Lee, M.J. Molina, M. Rees, J. Sachs, J. Schellnhuber. Published by Pontifical Academy of Sciences, The most imminent threat that April 2015. can harm the entire planet and its inhabitants is climate change.

* Corresponding authors

24 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA II. Carbon Dioxide Is Not the Only Problem

The greenhouse gas CO contributes 2 Between CO and other manmade greenhouse gases, about 50 percent to the manmade 2 heat added to the planet. The other we already have added enough heat to warm the 50 percent is due to several other planet by 2.3 degrees Celsius. The planet has already greenhouse gases and particles in warmed by 0.9 degrees Celsius. About 0.8 degrees soot. Those greenhouse gases include nitrous oxide, methane, halocarbons Celsius of this warming has been masked by air (CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs), and pollution particles that reflect sunlight and cool the tropospheric ozone. The warming particles in soot are black carbon atmosphere. This masking effect will go away when and brown carbon. The sources strict air pollution controls are adopted worldwide. of these pollutants include fossil Another 0.6 degrees Celsius is stored in the oceans; fuels (ozone, methane, black carbon), agriculture (methane and nitrous this will be released in the coming decades. oxide), organic wastes (methane), biomass cooking and open burning (black and brown carbon) and refrigeration (halocarbons). Among involves a complication due to air The particle cooling effect of 0.6 these pollutants, the SLCPs (methane, pollution particles. In addition to degrees Celsius should not be black carbon, tropospheric ozone black and brown particles (which thought of as offsetting greenhouse and HFCs) have lifetimes of days warm the climate), fossil fuel gas warming. This is because the (black carbon) to 15 years (HFCs), combustion emits sulfate and nitrate lifetimes of these particles last just which are much shorter than the particles, which reflect sunlight like days, and when stricter air pollution century or longer lifetimes of CO2 mirrors and cool the planet. The controls worldwide eliminate the and nitrous oxide. mechanisms of warming and cooling emission of these particles, the are extremely complex. But when 0.6 degrees Celsius cooling effect When we add up the warming effects we add up all of the effects, sulfate will disappear. This however does of CO with the other greenhouse 2 and nitrate particles have a net not imply that we should keep on gases, the planet should have cooling effect of about 0.8 degrees polluting, since air pollution leads to warmed by about 2.3 degrees Celsius (0.3–1.2 degrees Celsius 7 million deaths worldwide each year, Celsius, instead of the 0.9 degrees range). Summing 0.9 degrees Celsius as well as reductions in precipitation Celsius observed warming. About of observed warming, 0.6 degrees and decreases in crop yields. 0.6 degrees Celsius of the expected Celsius stored in the oceans, and warming is still stored in the deep the 0.8 degrees Celsius masked oceans (to about 1,500 meters). by particles, adds up to the 2.3 That heat is expected to be released degrees Celsius warming we should and contribute to atmospheric have seen from the build up of warming in two to four decades. greenhouse gases to-date. The balance of 0.8 degrees Celsius

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 25 III. Planetary Scale Warming: How Large and How Soon?

Of the CO released to the air, 44 percent remains for 2 Unless we act within few years, a century or longer; 25 percent remains for at least a 2 degrees Celsius warming will millennium. Due to fast atmospheric transport, CO2 envelopes the planet like a blanket. That blanket is growing be upon on us by 2050. Unlike thicker and warmer at an accelerating pace. It took us in a game of chess played with 220 years — from 1750 to 1970 — to emit about 1 trillion a compassionate opponent, we tons of CO2. We emitted the next trillion in less than 40 years. Of the total 2 trillion tons humans have put into the cannot take back our flawed moves atmosphere, about 44 percent is still there. At the current rate of emission — 38 billion tons per year and growing at a when checkmate is imminent. rate of about 2 percent per year — the third trillion will be added in less than 20 years and the fourth trillion by 2050. 2050, mostly due to emissions already released into the How does the CO blanket warm the planet? It works 2 atmosphere (although that amount of warming could just as a cloth blanket on a cold winter night keeps us come as early as 2040 or as late as 2070). By 2050, under warm. The blanket warms us by trapping our body heat. a business-as-usual scenario, we will have added another Likewise, the CO blanket traps the heat given off by the 2 trillion tons and the 2050 warming could be as high as 2 Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. The surface and degrees Celsius — and the committed warming would be atmosphere absorb sunlight and release this solar energy 3 degrees Celsius by 2050. in the form of infrared energy, some of which escapes to What is our predicament? We get deeper and deeper into space. The human-made CO2 blanket is very efficient at blocking some of this infrared energy, and thus warms the the hole as time passes if we keep emitting at present rates atmosphere and the surface. under business-as-usual scenarios. The problem is that CO2 stays in the atmosphere so long; the more that is there, the How large? Each trillion tons of emitted CO can warm the 2 hotter Earth gets. If we wait until 2050 to stop emitting planet by as much as 0.75 degrees Celsius. CO2, there would be no way to avoid warming of at least The 2 trillion tons emitted as of 2010 has committed the 3 degrees Celsius because the thickness of the blanket planet to warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius. The third trillion covering Earth would have increased from 900 billion we would add under business-as-usual scenarios would tons (as of 2010) to about 2 trillion tons (in 2050). Our commit us to warming by 2.25 degrees Celsius by 2030. predicament is analogous to stopping a fast-moving train: You have to put on the brakes well in advance of the point How soon? A number of factors enter the equation. you need to stop; otherwise you will overshoot the mark. To simplify, we likely will witness about 1.5 degrees Celsius (or two-thirds of the committed warming) by

26 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IV. Facing the Worst Scenario: the Fat Tail

A warming of 4 to 7.8 degrees Celsius can cause collapse of critical natural systems.

A projection such as 2 degrees The “fat tail,” when Celsius warming by 2050 is subject to a three-fold uncertainty range. It is combined with the important to note, however, that the current 50 billion uncertainty goes both ways: Things tons per year of could be a little better than the average expectation, or a lot worse. emissions of warming The most disturbing part of the pollutants, poses uncertainty is that it has a so-called “fat tail,” that is, a probability of a existential risks to warming two to three times as much, civilizations and or even more, than the 2 degrees ecosystems alike. Celsius that would result from best- case greenhouse gas mitigations. For example, the IPCC (2013 report) gives a 95 percent confidence range argue that our decisions should be of 2.5–7.8 degrees Celsius warming guided by such extreme possibilities for the baseline case without any and that we should take actions to mitigation actions. A warming in prevent them, much as we already do the range of 4 to 7.8 degrees Celsius in requiring buildings to withstand can cause collapse of critical natural earthquakes and automobile systems such as the Arctic sea ice, manufacturers to equip our cars with the Asian monsoon system and seat belts and air bags in the unlikely the Amazon rain forest. Economists event of an accident.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 27 V. From Climate Change to Climate Disruption: Amplifying Feedbacks

Observations with satellites, aircraft, Arctic Ice Extent: 1979-2012 ships and weather balloons gathered (Malte Humpert/The Arctic Institute) over the past three decades are providing disturbing evidence of nonlinear amplification of global warming through feedbacks. This has raised concerns that continued warming beyond 2 degrees Celsius can lead to crossing over tipping points in the climate system itself or in other natural and social systems that climate influences. Examples of climate-mediated tipping points include depletion of snowpack, drought, fires and insect infestations threatening whole forests, and the opening of new oceans in the Arctic. The following are among the many major feedbacks for which we have empirical evidence.

Nonlinear feedbacks Feedbacks between warming, Arctic sea ice and absorption of are kicking in and the sun’s heat leading to climate Observations from 1979 to 2012 reveal that warming in the Arctic has been amplified by 100 percent due to a feedback (a vicious cycle) between surface disruptions and warming, melting sea ice and increased absorption of solar heat. Melting ice they largely are exposes the underlying darker ocean, which then absorbs rather than reflecting underestimated in sunlight as the bright ice does. The added absorption of solar energy has been equivalent to the addition of 100 billion tons of CO2 to the air. The large warming most climate models. has exposed a whole new oceanic region in the Arctic.

28 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA U.S. Drought Monitor – California: October 6, 2015 Massive wildfires burning (David Miskus, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC) across Southern California: October 25, 2003 (Jacques Descloitres, NASA GSFC)

D0 – Abnormally Dry D1 – Moderate Drought D2 – Severe Drought D3 – Extreme Drought D4 – Exceptional Drought

Feedbacks between warming, snowpack, Feedbacks between warming drought and fires and atmospheric moisture The California example: California has kept up with the average warming of the With every degree of warming, planet by about 0.9 degrees Celsius, with regions such as the Central Valley air holds about 7 percent more warming in excess of 2 degrees Celsius. This warming melts the snowpack, and moisture. This means that warming the dark surface underneath absorbs more heat and therefore increases moisture is amplified by a factor of two, since loss by 7–15 percent per degree of warming. This amplified drying becomes water vapor itself is a dominant chronic, since the warming gets worse each year due to increase in emissions greenhouse gas. This is one of the of warming pollutants. The chronic drying is drastically magnified into a mega- most vicious cycles that amplifies drought when rainfall decreases sporadically due to variability in the weather, greenhouse warming. Increases similar to what has happened over the past four years. The resulting extreme in water vapor also contribute to drying of the soil and vegetation contributes to fires. The forest fires, in turn, emit extreme storms and increased more CO2 as well as black carbon and methane, the two largest contributors to rainfall, which have become more warming next to CO2. This phenomenon is not confined to California. Similar common, leading to devastating problems are occurring throughout western North America. The melting of floods around the world. northern latitude permafrost and resultant increases in methane emissions are another potential feedback element in warming driven by similar patterns.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 29

VI. The Human Dimension: Public Health and Food and Water Security

Climate change directly affects several major hurricanes, floods, human health through heat waves droughts and fires in the United Direct and Indirect Health and increasing frequency and States. Within wealthy nations, poor Effects of Coal, Petroleum severity of weather extremes such communities will tend to suffer and Gas as storms, floods and droughts. disproportionately from the health Secondary effects include wildfires, effects of climate change. (Lancet Commission, June 2015) worsened air quality, drinking water While the focus of climate change • Mortality and morbidity scarcity and contamination, crop discussions is on CO from fossil and fishery failures, and expansion 2 • Cardiovascular disease fuel combustion, particulate of transmissible diseases. Floods, pollution — nitrogen oxides, toxic • Acute respiratory infection droughts and resource shortages pollutants and ozone created from trigger population displacement, • Stroke power plants, vehicles and other mental health effects and fossil fuel combustion — also have • Mental health potentially violent conflict, both devastating impacts on human lives • Vector-borne diseases within countries and across borders. and well-being, including: Such events will affect poorer • Water- and food-borne nations much more severely, at • 3 million premature deaths diseases least initially, but wealthy countries every year from air pollution • Heat stroke and other will not be spared significant harm, originating from fossil fuel extreme weather related such as we have already seen from combustion. effects • Stroke, cardiovascular disease, • Lung cancer, drowning, acute and chronic respiratory under-nutrition The effects of climate disease and adverse birth change are being outcomes. • Harmful algal blooms felt today and future • More than 200 million tons of • Mass migration crops are destroyed every year • Decreases in labor projections represent by ozone pollution. productivity an unacceptably • Mega-droughts in sub-Saharan Cost: $70 to $840 per ton of CO high and potentially Africa and the Indo-Gangetic 2 catastrophic risk to plains of South Asia. The blocking of sunlight by particles human health. from combustion of coal and petroleum, and the resulting Lancet Commission surface dimming has slowed June 2015 down rain-bearing weather systems.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 31

VII. Environmental Equity, Ethics, and Justice: What Is Our Responsibility?

One billion of us consume about • Small island nations in the 50 percent of the fossil fuel energy tropical Pacific already are If the carbon footprint of consumed on Earth and emit about facing mass migration caused the entire 7 billion became 60 percent of the greenhouse gases. by increased sea level. If sea comparable to that of the top In contrast, the poorest 3 billion, level rise reaches 1 meter 1 billion, global CO2 emissions who still rely on pre-industrial or more, as is plausible would increase from the current era technologies for cooking and with business as usual, low- 38 billion to 150 billion tons heating, contribute only 5 percent lying coastal nations with every year and we would add a to CO pollution. Thus, the climate populations of more than 2 trillion tons every seven years, in problem is due to unsustainable 100 million people — such as turn adding 0.75 degrees Celsius consumption by just 15 percent of Bangladesh — will move to warming every seven years. the world’s population. Fixing the India and other neighboring problem thus has to simultaneously nations. While likely slower lower the carbon footprint of the than sudden catastrophic wealthiest 1 billion, while allowing events, the size and scope of Such impacts mean that children for growth of energy consumption such climate migration could alive today, their children, and and expansion of carbon sinks, such make today’s Syrian migration their grandchildren, along with as forests, needed to empower the crisis look mild by comparison. all generations to come, will poorest 3 billion. It is in this context suffer from our unsustainable • With melting of Himalayan and that it is critical to bend the curve burning of fossil fuels. What is other glacier systems, such through transforming to carbon our responsibility to them? as those of the Andes, more neutrality in developed nations while than 1.5 billion people would sharing technology that enables be left without most of their developing nations to leapfrog over permanent water supply. use of fossil fuels to produce the energy they need. Indeed, for the • These are critical practical poorest 3 billion, doing so is literally issues, but there are even more a matter of life and death. substantial inter-generational ethical issues. A large fraction For example: of CO2 and other greenhouse • The poorest 3 billion live gases stay in the air longer than mainly in rural areas relying on a century, and when combined mixed market and subsistence with the added heat stored in farming on few acres. A four- the depths of the ocean, will year mega-drought of the type affect climate for thousands that California is experiencing of years. Moreover, increased

now would change their forms CO2 makes the oceans more of livelihood and expand the acidic, which threatens at least likelihood of both temporary and a quarter of the ocean’s species permanent migration. with extinction.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 33 Citations in the Report

The 10 solutions in the executive Auston, D., J. Brouwer, S. DenBaars, Mitigation: Institutions, Ideas, summary were distilled from the W. Glassley, W.B. Jenkins, P. and Actions, Bending the Curve: 10 critical analyses provided in the seven Peterson, S. Samuelsen and V. Scalable Solutions for Carbon and chapters listed below. These seven Srinivasan, 2016: Assessing the Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, chapters along with the executive Current and Future Needs for D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., summary comprise the full report: High Impact Technology Research, University of California Press, Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Development & Deployment Oakland. Solutions for Climate and Carbon for Mitigating Climate Change, Barnosky, A.D., J. Christensen , H. Mitigation. The full report will be Chapter 3, Bending the Curve: 10 Han, T. Matlock, J. Miles, R. Rice, published in spring 2016 after peer Scalable Solutions for Carbon and L. Westerling and L.D. White, 2016: review. The seven chapters, along Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, Chapter 7, Establishing Common with the references therein, form the D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., Ground: Finding Better Ways to basis of the quantitative estimates University of California Press, Communicate About Climate provided in the executive summary. Oakland. Disruption, Bending the Curve: 10 In addition to the seven chapters, Delmas, M., D. Feldman, D. Kammen, Scalable Solutions for Carbon and we also list a few published studies M. Mielke, D. Miller, R. Ramesh, Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, and reports below which provided us D. Rotman and D. Sperling, 2016: D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., with critical analyses and some of the How Do We Scale and Implement University of California Press, quantitative estimates mentioned in Technologies and Best Practices to Oakland. the executive summary. State, National and Global Levels? Collins, W.D., S.J. Davis, R. Bales, Chapter 4, Bending the Curve: 10 Other references used in the J. Burney, R. McCarthy, E. Rignot Scalable Solutions for Carbon and executive summary: and D.G. Victor, 2016: Science and Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, Pathways for Bending the Curve, D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., I. Radiative Forcing, Carbon Chapter 1, Bending the Curve: 10 University of California Press, Emissions and Future Temperature Scalable Solutions for Carbon and Oakland. Trends: Climate Neutrality, V. Ramanathan, Allison, J., C. Horowitz, A. Millard- D. Kammen and F. Forman, Eds., Myhre, G. and D. Shindell et al, 2013: Ball, D. Press and S. Pincetl, 2016: University of California Press, Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Paths to Carbon Neutrality: Lessons Oakland. Forcing. In Chapter 8, Climate from California, Chapter 5, Bending Change 2013: The Physical Science Auffhammer, M., C.-Y. C. Lin the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Basis, Contribution of Working Group Lawell, J.B. Bushnell, O. Deschênes Carbon and Climate Neutrality, V. I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the and J. Zhang, 2016: Economic Ramanathan, D. Kammen and F. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Considerations, Chapter 2, Bending Forman, Eds., University of California Change, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Press, Oakland. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Carbon and Climate Neutrality, V. Forman, F., S.B. Hecht, R. Morello- Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex Ramanathan, D. Kammen and F. Frosch, K. Pezzoli and G. Solomon, and P.M. Midgley, Eds., Cambridge Forman, Eds., University of 2016: Chapter 6, Equitable Social University Press, Cambridge, United California Press, Oakland. Approaches to Climate Change Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

34 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Solutions Network and the Institute IV. Natural and Managed Change, 2014: Climate Change 2014: for Sustainable Development and Ecosystems Mitigation of Climate Change. O. International Relations, SSN and Lal, R., 2006: Enhancing Crop Yields Edenhofer, et al., Eds., Cambridge ISDIR, New York and Paris. in the Developing Countries Through Univ. Press, Cambridge. Restoration of the Soil Organic III. Short-Lived Climate Pollutants Crutzen, P. J., 2002: Geology of Carbon Pool in Agricultural Lands, Mankind. Nature, 415, 23. Shindell, D., V. Ramanathan, F. Raes, Land Degradation and Development. L. Cifuentes, N.T. Kim Oanh, 2011: 17: 197–209. II. Carbon Mitigation Pathways: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon Jan, O, C. Tistivint, A. Turbé, C. and Tropospheric Ozone, United Fay, M., S. Hallegatte, A. Vogt-Schilb, O’Connor, P. Lavelle, A. Flammini, Nations Environment Programme, J. Rozenberg, U. Narloch and T. Kerr, N. El-Hage Scialabba, J. Hoogeveen, Nairobi. 2013: Decarbonizing Development: M. Iweins, F. Tubiello, L. Peiser, and Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future. Shindell, D., J.C.I. Kuylenstierna, E. C. Batello, 2013: Food Wastage Climate Change and Development, Vignati, R. van Dingenen, M. Amann, Footprint: Impacts on Natural World Bank, Washington, D.C. M., Z. Klimont, S.C. Anenberg, N. Resources, Summary Report, Muller, G. Janssens-Maenhout, F. FAO, Rome. Birol, F., B. Wanner, F. Kesicki, C. Raes, J. Schwartz, G. Faluvegi, L. Hood, M. Baroni, S. Bennett, C. Pozzoli, K. Kupiainen, L. Höglund- V. Regulations Besson, S. Bouckaert, A. Bromhead, Isaksson, L. Emberson, D. Streets, O. Durand-Lassserve, F. Kęsicki ,M. Press, D.M. , 2015: American V. Ramanathan, K. Hicks, N.T. Klingbeil, A. Kurozumi, E. Levina, J. Environmental Policy: The Failures Kim Oanh, G. Milly, M. Williams, Liu, S. McCoy, Pwet Olejarnik, N. of Compliance, Abatement and V. Demkine, D. Fowler, 2012: Selmet, D. Sinopoli, S. Suehiro, J. Mitigation, Edward Elgar, Inc., Simultaneously Mitigating Near- Trüby, C. Vailles, D. Wilkinson, G. Cheltenham, UK. Term Climate Change and Improving Zazias, S. Zhang, 2015: World Energy Human Health and Food Security. Sabel, C. and D.G. Victor, 2015: Outlook: Special Report-Energy and Science, 335, pp.183-9. Governing Global Problems under Climate Change, International Energy Uncertainty: Making Bottom-Up Agency, Paris. Ramanathan, V. and Y. Xu, 2010: Climate Policy Work, forthcoming in The Copenhagen Accord for limiting World Bank-Ecofys, 2014: State Climatic Change, Springer, New York. global warming: Criteria, constraints, and Trends of Carbon Pricing. and available avenues. Proceedings IEA-2014. World Energy Investment of the National Academy of Sciences, Outlook, Special Report, World Bank, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Williams, J.H., B. Haley, F. Kahrl, J. Moore, A.D. Jones, M.S. Torn, H. McJeon, 2014: Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States. Report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of the Sustainable

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 35

Authors of the Full Report to be Published in Spring 2016

Chair: Veerabhadran Ramanathan

Vice-Chairs Daniel Kammen Fonna Forman

Contributors Juliann E. Allison William Glassley Stephanie Pincetl Maximilian Auffhammer Hahrie Han Daniel Press David Auston Susanna B. Hecht Ramamoorthy Ramesh Roger Bales Cara Horowitz Ronald E. Rice Anthony D. Barnosky Bryan Jenkins Eric Rignot Jack Brouwer C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell Douglas Rotman Jennifer Burney Teenie Matlock Scott Samuelsen James Bushnell Ryan McCarthy Gina Solomon Lifang Chiang Michael Mielke Daniel Sperling Jon Christensen Jack Miles Venkat Srinivasan William D. Collins Adam Millard-Ball David G. Victor Steven J. Davis Dorothy Miller Byron Washom Magali Delmas Rachel Morello-Frosch LeRoy Westerling Steven DenBaars Walter Munk Lisa D. White Olivier Deschênes Per Peterson Junjie Zhang David Feldman Keith Pezzoli

Coordinator L. Chiang

Senior Editor J. Christensen

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 37 Research Foci of UC Climate Solutions Group

Veerabhadran Ramanathan (Chair), Jennifer Burney, San Diego. Energy, David Feldman, Irvine. Water San Diego. Climate and atmospheric environment, climate change; food resources management and science; carbon mitigation; security, production and agriculture; policy, adaptive management and interdisciplinary solutions. poverty alleviation. sustainable development. Fonna Forman (Vice Chair), San James Bushnell, Davis. Energy and William Glassley, Davis. Geothermal Diego. Political theory; global justice; environmental economics, industrial energy; metamorphic processes, sustainable and equitable urban organization and regulation, and fluid/rock interaction and transformation. energy policy. continental growth. Daniel Kammen (Vice Chair), Lifang Chiang, Office of the Hahrie Han, Santa Barbara. Berkeley. Renewable and appropriate President. Science and innovation Environmental politics, civic and energy technologies; energy access; policy; program and budgetary political engagement, political energy and innovation policy. evaluation; geography and health. behavior. Juliann E. Allison, Riverside. Political Jon Christensen, Los Angeles. Susanna B. Hecht, Los Angeles. economy, environmental politics Environmental journalism, writing, Political ecology; climate change and policy; community-based social editing; strategic communications; adaptation and mitigation; tropics; change. mapping and visualization. long term resilience strategies. Maximilian Auffhammer, Berkeley. William D. Collins, Berkeley Lab Cara Horowitz, Los Angeles. Greenhouse gas emissions (LBNL). Interactions among sunlight, California and federal climate policy forecasting; impacts of air pollution heat, coupled climate system, global and local sustainability; climate on agriculture. environmental change. change legislative reform David Auston, Santa Barbara. Carbon Steven J. Davis, Irvine. Sustainable Bryan Jenkins, Davis. Energy neutrality applied research solutions; systems analysis; strategies for low- systems in agriculture, biomass fuel materials science and engineering. carbon global demand for energy, production, thermal conversion, and food and goods. environmental impacts. Roger Bales, Merced. Adaptation of water supplies, critical ecosystems Magali Delmas, Los Angeles. C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, Davis. and economy to the impacts of Firm behavior in climate change Environmental and natural resource climate warming. mitigation; barriers and incentives to economics; energy economics; energy efficient solutions. industrial organization. Anthony D. Barnosky, Berkeley. Assessing ecological baselines and Steven DenBaars, Santa Barbara. Teenie Matlock, Merced. Cognitive how ecosystems respond to climate Solid state lighting and energy; science, linguistics; climate change; science communication. effect of materials properties on communications; political language. high tech device performance. Jack Brouwer, Irvine. Alternative Ryan McCarthy, CA Air Resources energy; high temperature Olivier Deschênes, Santa Barbara. Board. Transportation, energy and electrochemical dynamics and Climate change health and economic climate planning and policy; SLCPs integrated energy systems. impacts; relationship between reductions planning. energy and labor markets.

38 UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Michael Mielke, Silicon Valley Daniel Press, Santa Cruz. Venkat Srinivasan, Berkeley Lab. Leadership Group. Corporate Environmental politics and Next-generation batteries for environmental sustainability; state policy, agricultural sustainability, vehicle& grid; Li-ion, metal-based, and Federal climate change policy. land preservation, water and flow batteries. quality regulation and resource Jack Miles, Irvine. Religion, science David G. Victor, San Diego.Highly management. and the environment; religion, regulated industries (electric power); literature and international relations; Ramamoorthy Ramesh, Berkeley. how regulation affects operation of religion, poetry and music RD and D for sustainable energy; major energy markets. synthesis and materials physics of Adam Millard-Ball, Santa Cruz. Byron Washom, San Diego. Strategic complex oxide materials. Future of travel demand; cities and campus energy initiatives; energy climate change; carbon trading; Ronald E. Rice, Santa Barbara. New storage development; renewable transportation policy. Media, Diffusion of Innovations, energy financing. Environmental Communication. Dorothy Miller, Office of the LeRoy Westerling, Merced. Applied President. Translation of UC research Eric Rignot, Irvine. Glaciology, climatology; climate-ecosystem- from lab to market; science and climate change, radar remote wildfire interactions; statistical innovation policy; chemistry. sensing, ice sheet modeling, modeling. interferometry, ice-ocean Rachel Morello-Frosch, Berkeley. Lisa D. White, Berkeley. interactions. Environmental health science; social Paleontology, historical geology, determinants of environmental Douglas Rotman, Lawrence Livermore and the history of life; K-12 science health disparities. National Lab (LLNL). Clean energy education and outreach. technologies; energy storage; public- Walter Munk, San Diego. Junjie Zhang, San Diego. private partnerships. Geophysics; measurement of Environmental and resource warming ocean temperatures; ocean Scott Samuelsen, Irvine. Power economics, climate policy, applied sound transmission, deep-sea tides. generation, distribution, and econometrics. utilization; hybrid systems; Per Peterson, Berkeley. High- renewable fuels; smart grid temperature reactors, high level technology. nuclear waste processing and nuclear materials management. Gina Solomon, San Francisco. Science and health; health and Keith Pezzoli, San Diego. Planning, asthma effects of climate change. bioregional theory & natural-human system interactions in city-region Daniel Sperling, Davis. sustainability. Transportation technology assessment; energy/environmental Stephanie Pincetl, Los Angeles. aspects transportation; Land use, land use change, urban transportation policy. environments and transformation of urban natural environments.

CARBON NEUTRALITY INITIATIVE 39