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S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen / Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen / Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale Primary Credit Analyst: Harm Semder, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9158; [email protected] Secondary Contacts: Benjamin Heinrich, CFA, FRM, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9167; [email protected] Claudio Hantzsche, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9188; [email protected] CRISIL Support: Ankur Verma1, Mumbai; [email protected] Table Of Contents Major Rating Factors Outlook Rationale Related Criteria Related Research WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JANUARY 19, 2021 1 S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen / Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale Additional SACP a Support 0 0 + + Factors Anchor a- Issuer Credit Rating ALAC 0 Business Support Adequate Position 0 Capital and GRE Support Strong 0 Earnings +1 Risk Position Adequate 0 Group A/Negative/A-1 Support 0 Funding Average 0 Sovereign Liquidity Adequate Support 0 Major Rating Factors Strengths: Weaknesses: • Strong solidarity and cooperation between group • High cost base. members based on their ownership and mutual • Revenue margin pressure on the deposit-funded protection scheme. business model. • Solid retail market position of the member savings • Concentration risk in commercial real estate (CRE) banks in two German states, and a risk averse lending by Helaba. relationship-based business approach by its central institution Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen (Helaba). • Robust capitalization from sound earnings retention over the past few years. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JANUARY 19, 2021 2 S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen / Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale Outlook: Negative The negative outlook acknowledges the challenges that the S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen / Landesbank Hesse-Thueringen (SFHT) group faces in the next 12-24 months from the weakened operating conditions amid the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with already increasing economic and industry risks for the German banking sector. Downside scenario We could lower our ratings on SFHT following a negative revision of our view on industry risks in the German banking sector, leading us to revise downward the anchor--the starting point of assigning our ratings--for both SFHT and DSGV (the nationwide German Savings Banks Association) to 'bbb+' from 'a-'. We could also downgrade the member banks if SFHT's links with DSGV weaken and, at the same time, SFHT's group credit profile (GCP) deteriorates below 'a'. This could be triggered by a material decline in Helaba's asset quality, especially in commercial real estate and corporate finance, implying a less risk-averse stance than currently. Upside scenario We could revise our outlooks to stable if we saw reduced downside risks from the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with a stabilization in the economic and industry risk trends for the German banking industry. We would also look specifically for signs that SFHT's business model and risk profile looked set to remain robust and resilient. Rationale Our ratings reflect the aggregate creditworthiness of core members of S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen including Landesbank Hesse-Thueringen and local savings banks. Accordingly, we equalize our ratings on each bank with our 'a' GCP on SFHT. This reflects the core group status of member savings banks and Helaba within SFHT. SFHT is member of DSGV but its GCP is neither enhanced nor constrained by our assessment of DSGV's 'a+' GCP and our view that SFHT, including Helaba, is a highly strategic subgroup of the German savings banks. This caps the long-term ratings on individual SFHT savings banks and Helaba at 'A', one notch below DSGV's current 'a+' GCP.Our assessment of SFHT's 'a' creditworthiness at the regional level also indicates that we consider it to be a strong subgroup of the German savings banks network (see chart 1), but we note pressure on our aggregate assessments for both DSGV and SFHT from difficult operating conditions amid the COVID-19 pandemic. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JANUARY 19, 2021 3 S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen / Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JANUARY 19, 2021 4 S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen / Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale SFHT's business comprises 49 mainly retail banking-oriented regional savings banks and a material share of wholesale banking activities through 69%-owned Helaba. We therefore base our ratings on our view that SFHT's member banks will maintain a strong business focus on Germany, supporting the 'a-' anchor. They also reflect the group's solid aggregate business position, supported by the savings banks' dominant position in regional retail banking and complemented by Helaba's function as its central institution and by its more wholesale-oriented businesses. A rating constraint remains the relatively high and sticky cost base and the sensitivity of the savings banks' revenues to a prolonged low interest-rate environment. We consider Helaba to be a core member of SFHT and include it in SFHT's GCP.This reflects its majority ownership by, and continued integration with, the savings banks. It also takes into account its potential to benefit from an additional regional reserve fund, which was set up by Helaba and the savings banks in the region to support each other if needed. Helaba also acts as central institution for about 40% of all savings banks in Germany. We believe that SFHT's profitability prospects have deteriorated due to German and eurozone economic recessions in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. We continue to view positively Helaba's ongoing progress on scheduled cost-cutting measures amid the pandemic, which is important considering that the group's efficiency will remain only moderate compared with many international peers. We view positively the group's diversified business mix of the savings banks' strong market positions in regional banking and Helaba's prudent relationship-based strategy. However, we also believe that the current difficult operating conditions exert further pressure on its profitability including the lower-for-longer interest-rate environments. We also acknowledge that the short-to-medium-term effects of COVID-19-related disruptions on SFHT's loan book will depend on the sustained success of Germany's and other countries' fiscal support policy measures and the shape of recovery. However, with roughly €37 billion commercial real estate exposures (42% of which are domestic), we believe Helaba has significant industry concentrations. We also note SFHT's material exposure to the highly cyclical transport financing segments. However, we view the high collateralization levels with fairly conservative loan-to-value ratios as mitigating these risks, and consider Helaba's appetite to be risk averse, as demonstrated during the 2008 financial crisis. Finally, we see material uncertainties around increasing tail risk from the second wave of COVID-19 outbreaks, which weighs on our asset quality projection given Helaba's sizable exposure to more cyclical and concentrated lending segments. Our base case anticipates pressure on earnings retention given lower revenues and expected increases in credit-loss provisions over the next two years, and higher risk-weighted asset (RWA) inflation from loan growth and increased recognition of nonperforming loans. Overall, we expect the effect on SFHT's capitalization measures to remain moderate. We forecast that our risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio will stay at about 12% over the next 18-24 months compared with 12.8% for year-end 2019. Anchor: 'a-' reflecting lending exposure predominantly to Germany Our bank criteria use our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment economic risk and industry risk scores to determine a bank's anchor. Our anchor for banks operating mainly in Germany is 'a-'. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT JANUARY 19, 2021 5 S-Finanzgruppe Hessen-Thueringen / Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen Girozentrale Our 'a-' anchor for SFHT reflects the group entities' domicile in Germany, where they are regulated, and our view of the blended economic risk of the markets in which the group operates. About 75% of the group's exposure to the private sector and to local and regional governments is domestic. This supports the anchor, because we view Germany as having the lowest economic risk of all banking systems globally. About 25% of SFHT's credit exposure is in countries with higher economic risks, due to Helaba's activities abroad--mainly in CRE lending and corporate finance. We project no material changes to country composition and expect that savings banks' balance sheets will expand in line with Helaba's. Helaba is slightly increasing its share of foreign corporate exposures, but its overall corporate exposures account only for about 40% of the group's total private sector and regional government exposures. This implies the anchor is currently only sensitive to a potential downward revision of industry risk but not of economic risk, both of which we consider on a negative trend for Germany. Our assessment of economic risk considers the strengths from Germany's highly diverse and competitive economy, with a demonstrated ability to absorb economic and financial shocks. Due to the outbreak of COVID-19, we expect German real GDP to contract sharply by 5.4% in 2020, which will be compensated by a strong rebound with 4.7% expansion in 2021, and 2.4% in 2022. We note the damage to the economy, household wealth, and various corporate sectors caused by the pandemic. Nevertheless, we
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