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1. Chapter 1: Framing and Context 1 2 Coordinating Lead Authors: Myles Allen (UK), Opha Pauline Dube (Botswana), William Solecki

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1. Chapter 1: Framing and Context 1 2 Coordinating Lead Authors: Myles Allen (UK), Opha Pauline Dube (Botswana), William Solecki Second Order Draft Chapter 1 IPCC SR1.5 1 1. Chapter 1: Framing and Context 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Myles Allen (UK), Opha Pauline Dube (Botswana), William Solecki 4 (USA) 5 6 Lead Authors: Fernando Aragón–Durand (Mexico), Wolfgang Cramer (France), Mikiko Kainuma 7 (Japan), Jatin Kala (Australia), Natalie Mahowald (USA), Yacob Mulugetta (Ethiopia), Rosa Perez 8 (Philippines), Morgan Wairiu (Solomon Islands), Kirsten Zickfeld (Canada) 9 10 Contributing Authors: Stephen Humphreys (UK), Graciela Raga (Argentina), Bronwyn Hayward 11 (New Zealand), Diana Liverman (USA/UK), Mark Richardson (UK), Christopher Smith (UK), 12 Purnamita Dasgupta (India), Maisa Rojas (Chile), Will Steffen (Australia), Haile Eakin (USA) 13 14 Review Editors: Ismail Elgizouli Idris (Sudan), Andreas Fischlin (Switzerland), Xuejie Gao (China) 15 16 Chapter Scientist: Richard Millar (UK) 17 18 Date of Draft: 21/12/17 19 20 Notes: TSU compiled version 21 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 1-1 Total pages: 78 Second Order Draft Chapter 1 IPCC SR1.5 1 Table of Contents 2 3 1. Chapter 1: Framing and Context ................................................................................................ 1 4 5 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 4 6 7 Building a knowledge base for a 1.5°C World .................................................................... 8 8 1.1.1 Pathways, Impacts, and Sustainable Development ......................................................... 8 9 1.1.2 Equity and Ethics Framing for a 1.5°C Warming World .............................................. 11 10 1.1.3 Report Structure ............................................................................................................ 11 11 Box 1.1: The Anthropocene as Framing .......................................................................................... 12 12 13 Understanding 1.5°C: reference levels, probability, transience, overshoot, 14 stabilization ............................................................................................................................. 14 15 1.2.1 Working definitions of 1.5°C and 2°C warming relative to preindustrial levels .......... 14 16 1.2.1.1 Definition of global average temperature ................................................................. 14 17 1.2.1.2 Choice of reference period ........................................................................................ 16 18 1.2.1.3 Total versus human–induced warming in mitigation and impact studies ................. 18 19 1.2.2 Global versus regional and seasonal warming .............................................................. 18 20 1.2.3 Trends in emissions and radiative forcing .................................................................... 19 21 1.2.4 Definition of 1.5°C consistent pathways and associated emissions and impacts .......... 21 22 Cross-Chapter Box 1.1: Scenarios and Pathways ............................................................................ 22 23 1.2.4.1 Pathways remaining below 1.5°C ............................................................................. 24 24 1.2.4.2 Pathways temporarily exceeding 1.5°C .................................................................... 25 25 1.2.4.3 Pathways permanently exceeding 1.5°C ................................................................... 25 26 1.2.4.4 Impacts at 1.5°C warming associated with different pathways ................................ 27 27 1.2.4.5 Framing cumulative budgets for CO2 and non–CO2 climate forcing using AGWP . 27 28 1.2.5 Definition of ‘balance’ and net zero emissions ............................................................. 28 29 Cross-Chapter Box 1.2: Comparing long–lived and short–lived climate forcers with CO2– 30 equivalent emissions metrics in the context of 1.5°C pathways ............... 29 31 1.2.6 Definitions of warming commitment ............................................................................ 32 32 33 Multiple dimensions of impacts at 1.5° C and beyond ..................................................... 35 34 1.3.1 Physical Dimensions of Impacts ................................................................................... 36 35 1.3.1.1 Spatial and temporal distribution of impacts ............................................................ 36 36 1.3.1.2 Implications of 1.5°C for extreme events and associated impacts ............................ 37 37 1.3.1.3 Non–temperature related impacts ............................................................................. 37 38 1.3.1.4 Probability, uncertainty and non–linearity of impacts .............................................. 37 39 1.3.2 Dimensions of Ecosystem Impacts ............................................................................... 38 40 1.3.2.1 Sensitivity of organisms and ecosystems to climate change ..................................... 38 41 1.3.2.2 Drivers of ecosystem impacts ................................................................................... 38 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 1-2 Total pages: 78 Second Order Draft Chapter 1 IPCC SR1.5 1 1.3.2.3 Resilience and irreversibility .................................................................................... 38 2 1.3.2.4 Impacts of climate change mitigation efforts on ecosystems .................................... 39 3 1.3.3 Human dimensions of impacts including vulnerability and adaptive capacity ............. 39 4 5 1.5°C in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, 6 sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, with consideration for ethics 7 and equity ............................................................................................................................... 40 8 1.4.1 Equity, rights and responsibilities ................................................................................. 40 9 1.4.2 Eradication of Poverty .................................................................................................. 42 10 1.4.3 Classifying Response Options ...................................................................................... 42 11 1.4.4 Governance ................................................................................................................... 43 12 1.4.5 Transformation, Transformation Pathways, and Transition .......................................... 44 13 1.4.6 Implementation and policies ......................................................................................... 45 14 Cross-Chapter Box 1.3: Framing feasibility: Key concepts and enabling condition for limiting 15 global temperature increases to 1.5°C ...................................................... 46 16 1.4.7 Trade–offs and synergies of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development ....... 49 17 Box 1.2: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ................................................................... 50 18 19 Assessment frameworks and emerging methodologies that integrate climate change 20 mitigation and adaptation with sustainable development .................................................. 51 21 1.5.1 Multidimensional costs and benefits ............................................................................. 51 22 1.5.2 Types of knowledge and evidence used in the report ................................................... 52 23 1.5.3 Climate models and associated simulations available for the present assessment ........ 53 24 1.5.4 Detection and attribution of change in climate and impacted systems ......................... 54 25 26 Consideration and communication of confidence, uncertainty and risk ....................... 54 27 1.6.1 Confidence .................................................................................................................... 55 28 1.6.2 Likelihood ..................................................................................................................... 55 29 1.6.3 Challenges in the context of this Special Report .......................................................... 55 30 31 Storyline of the report......................................................................................................... 56 32 33 FAQ 1.1: Why are we talking about 1.5°C? ..................................................................................... 58 34 FAQ 1.2: How close are we to 1.5°C? .............................................................................................. 58 35 36 References ............................................................................................................................................ 61 37 38 39 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 1-3 Total pages: 78 Second Order Draft Chapter 1 IPCC SR1.5 1 2 Executive Summary 3 4 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and it is extremely likely that anthropogenic 5 greenhouse gas emissions were the dominant cause of the warming observed since the mid-20th- 6 century. At COP21 in 2015, UNFCCC parties expressed the ambition in the resulting Paris 7 Agreement to limit the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels to “well 8 below 2°C” and to “pursue efforts” to limit warming to 1.5°C. This opening chapter provides the 9 framing and context of this Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, outlines the structure that 10 subsequent chapters will follow, and introduces the important underpinning
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