Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Human Development DIRECTIONS INDEVELOPMENT Education Reform Lessons andChallenges Lessons in Mozambique Louise Fox, Lucrecia Santibañez, Lucrecia Fox, Louise Vy Nguyen, and Pierre André andPierre Vy Nguyen, Education Reform in Mozambique Education Reform in Mozambique Lessons and Challenges Louise Fox, Lucrecia Santibañez, Vy Nguyen, and Pierre André © 2012 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association or The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org 1 2 3 4 15 14 13 12 This volume is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-8975-1 ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-8976-8 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8975-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Education reform in Mozambique : lessons and challenges / Louise Fox ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8213-8975-1 — ISBN 978-0-8213-8976-8 (electronic) 1. Education—Mozambique—Longitudinal studies. 2. Educational change—Mozambique. I. Fox, M. Louise. LA1986.E38 2012+ 370.968—dc23 2011051986 Cover photo: Child writing on the board, Primary School of Nhanpfuine. © Eric Miller/The World Bank. Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc. Contents Acknowledgments xi About the Authors xiii Abbreviations xv Chapter 1 Introduction 1 The Education Challenge 2 Organization of This Report 6 Notes 7 References 7 Chapter 2 Conceptual Framework and Data 9 Education Supply and Demand 10 Data and Sources 12 References 14 Chapter 3 Analysis of the Effects of the 2004–05 Reforms: Outputs and Outcomes 15 Primary Education 15 Costs Affect Access 18 2004 Reforms 20 Effects of Late Entry, Long Completion Times 21 v vi Contents Vulnerable Groups: Orphans 24 Completion Rates 27 Secondary Education 32 Private Sector Education Is Growing 36 Quality at Issue 37 Notes 39 References 40 Chapter 4 The Effects of the Primary Reforms: Econometric Analysis 41 References 44 Chapter 5 Does Education Matter for Poverty Reduction? A Livelihoods Perspective 45 Household Enterprises and Poverty Reduction 47 Education Needs of the Labor Force 48 Notes 51 References 51 Chapter 6 Investing in Education: Tough Choices Ahead 53 Policy Tradeoffs and the General Question of Access 54 Emphasize Primary or Secondary? 58 Policy Options for Mozambique 59 Education in Mozambique: A Bright Future 68 Notes 70 References 71 Appendixes 73 Appendix A Additional Tables from the Analysis 75 Primary Education: Enrollment Rates and Factors Affecting Enrollment 75 Secondary Education: Enrollment Rates and School Expenditures 82 Appendix B Simulation of Enrollment Rate Scenarios 89 Main Simulation 89 Standard Errors 90 Simulation with Double Transition Rates 90 Contents vii Appendix C Econometric Estimation of the Program Effect 93 The Basic Model: Effect of the Program for the Exposed Group 93 The Extended Model: Effect of the Program for Each Age 97 Other Determinants of Enrollment 101 Notes 101 References 101 Boxes 1.1 Mozambique At a Glance 2 1.2 Map of Provinces in Mozambique 3 1.3 Education System in Mozambique 4 2.1 The “Malleable” Nature of Education Supply 11 2.2 Description of Survey Data Used in the Analysis 13 4.1 Difficulties of Assessing Reform Impact 42 5.1 Household Enterprises 47 6.1 Two Common Tradeoffs in Education Policy 60 6.2 Would Early Childhood Development (ECD) Programs in Mozambique Get Children to Start School on Time? 62 6.3 Conditional Cash Transfers in Mozambique: A Simulation Exercise 64 6.4 “Rules of Thumb” Financial Training Can Improve Business Management for Household and Micro Entrepreneurs 69 Figures 3.1 Gross Enrollment Rates in Primary Schools, 1997, 2003, 2008 16 3.2 Age-Relevant Enrollment Rate by Consumption Quintile, 2008 17 3.3 Comparison of Annual Per Student Expenditures on Obligatory Contributions (fees) in EP1, 2003 and 2008 (constant 2008 prices) 19 3.4 Comparison of Annual Per Student Expenditures on Obligatory Contributions (fees) in EP2, 2003 and 2008 (constant 2008 prices) 20 3.5 Net Enrollment Rates in Primary Schools, 1997, 2003, 2008 22 3.6 Children Attending EP1 and EP2 Schools by Age, 2003 and 2008 23 viii Contents 3.7 Children Not Attending School, by Age, 2003 and 2008 26 3.8 Dropout Rates by Education Level and Type of Orphan, 2008 27 3.9 Lower Primary School Completion Rate, 2008 28 3.10 Upper Primary School Completion Rate, 2008 29 3.11 Reasons for Not Enrolling Children in School by Age, 1998–2008 32 3.12 Gross Enrollment Rates in Secondary Schools, 1997, 2003, and 2008 33 3.13 Number of Secondary Schools by Province, 2009 34 3.14 Enrollment in Public Schools as a Percentage of Total Enrollment, 2009 35 3.15 Growth in Public and Private Secondary Schools between 2004 and 2009 36 4.1 Marginal Effect on Enrollment Before and After the Program, by Age Group, 6–18 Years 43 5.1 Education Levels of New Workforce Entrants, 1997, 2003, 2009 50 6.1 Observed and Projected Distribution of Labor Force by Education Level, 2008 and 2013 56 6.2 Projected Distribution of Labor Force with Increased Transition Rates at Primary and Secondary Levels, 2013 57 Tables 3.1 Average Walking Time to School (in minutes) by Educational Level, Consumption Quintile, and Area of Residence, 2008 18 3.2 School, Teacher, and Enrollment Growth, 2000–10 21 3.3 Time to Complete a Grade-Level Cycle by Age, 2008 23 3.4 Repetition Rates by Grade and Year, 1998–2007 25 3.5 Ratio of Current School Attendance of Orphans vs. Non-Orphans, 2003 and 2008 27 3.6 Student Survival (in number of students) by Year of Entry into 1st Grade 29 3.7 Households with Positive Education Expenditures (cash and in-kind) by Per Capita Consumption Quintile, 2008 31 5.1 Structure of Employment, Household vs. Wage, 1997–2009 46 Contents ix A.1 Gross Enrollment Rates in Primary by Residence Area and Gender, 1997, 2003, and 2008 (% of population) 75 A.2 Net Enrollment Rates in Primary by Residence Area and Gender, 1997, 2003, and 2008 (% of population) 76 A.3 Children’s Educational Attainment by Age in Primary, 2003 and 2008 76 A.4 Average Transition Rates (% students) 77 A.5 Reasons for Never Attending or Dropping Out of School (% of respondents mentioning reason), ages 6–19 Years 77 A.6 Reasons for Not Being Enrolled in School, by Age (% respondents mentioning reason), 1998–2008 78 A.7 Dropout Rates in EP1 and EP2 (% respondents), 2003 and 2008 78 A.8 Repetition Rates in EP1 and EP2, by Area of Residence and Gender, 2008 79 A.9 Proportion Spent (per student) on Each Type of Cost in EP1 and EP2, by Area of Residence 79 A.10 Per Student Education Expenditure (Mt) by Type of Cost and Consumption Quintile, 2008 79 A.11 Comparison of Annual Per Student Expenditures on Obligatory Contributions (fees), (Mt, constant 2008 prices), 2003 and 2008 80 A.12 Perceptions of Change in Quality of Education since 2004 (% households), by Consumption Quintile 81 A.13 Main Reason for Education Improvement (% households citing reason), 2008 81 A.14 Main Reason for Education Worsening (% households citing reason), 2008 81 A.15 Gross Enrollment Rates in Secondary, by Area of Residence and Gender, 1997, 2003, 2008 (% of population) 82 A.16 Net Enrollment Rates in Secondary, by Area of Residence and Gender, 1997, 2003, 2008 (% of population) 82 A.17 Dropout Rates in ES1 and ES2, by Area of Residence and Gender, 2008 (% of population) 82 A.18 Educational Expenditure (Mt/student/year) in ES1, by Consumption Quintile, 2008 83 A.19 Per Student Annual Expenditure (Mt) in ES1, by Area of Residence and Type of Expenditure 83 x Contents A.20 Share of the Labor Force (%) with Primary Education, 2003, 2008, and Projected for 2013 84 A.21 Share of the Labor Force (%) with Secondary Education, 2003, 2008, and Projected for 2013 86 A.22 Share of the Labor Force with Education, 2003, 2008, and Alternative Projections for 2013 87 C.1 Effect of the Program for the Exposed Group, Population Ages 6–19 Years 95 C.2 Effect of the Program for Each Age, Population 6–19 Years 98 Acknowledgments The culmination of a five-year effort, this book is a joint product of the World Bank and the Mozambique Ministries of Education and Culture (MEC) and Planning and Economic Development (MPD).