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Assessment of the Ethnic Factor in the Kenyan Electoral Violence: a Case Study of Mathare, 1992-2017

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Assessment of the Ethnic Factor in the Kenyan Electoral Violence: a Case Study of Mathare, 1992-2017 UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI INSTITUTE OF DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES ASSESSMENT OF THE ETHNIC FACTOR IN THE KENYAN ELECTORAL VIOLENCE: A CASE STUDY OF MATHARE, 1992-2017. MAXWELL MUTHINI KYALO REG.NO. R50/8574/2017 A Research Project Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Award of Masters Degree in International Studies at the Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies (IDIS), University of Nairobi. NOVEMBER 2019 DECLARATION This research project is my original work and has not been presented before to any university for academic award. Signature………………………………. Date……………………………….. MAXWELL MUTHINI KYALO REG.NO: R50/8574/2017 This research project has been submitted for examination with my approval as a university supervisor. Signature …………………………….. Date ………………………………….. DR. CHAUDHRY SHAZIA Supervisor Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies (IDIS) ii DEDICATION This research project is dedicated with love and gratitude to my son Lucky Kyalo. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I thank God for enabling me to complete my studies. I am particularly grateful and immensely indebted to my supervisor Dr. Chaudhry Shazia, who read each sentence in this project report, tirelessly critiqued my work progressively and gave me innovative suggestions to improve my project. If not for his significant guidance, it would have been difficult to complete this project. Thank you Madam, I‟m greatly humbled by your support. Many thanks to my father Samuel Kyalo, my wife Victoria Nthemba, Susan Mwende (sister) and friends David Karanja, Vincent Ng‟eno, Sankala Guyo, Silas Katam, James Maingi, Shadrack Muoki, Sarah Kagoya, Tina Ngigi and Agnes Maingi for their encouragement and inspiration in academic studies. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ...................................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION ........................................................................................................................ iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ...................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................x ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................. xi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................ xii CHAPTER ONE .......................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY .......................................................................................1 1.0 Introduction .......................................................................................................................1 1.1 Statement of the Research Problem ....................................................................................4 1.2 Research Objectives ...........................................................................................................6 1.3 Literature Review ..............................................................................................................6 1.3.1 Theoretical Literature Review .....................................................................................7 1.3.2 Empirical Literature Review ...................................................................................... 10 1.3.3 Ethnic Factor in Electoral Violence ........................................................................... 11 1.3.4 Role of Political Parties in Politics of ethnicity and Post-Election Violence ............... 17 1.3.5 Efficacy of Approaches to Mitigate Electoral Violence .............................................. 23 1.3.6 Literature Gap ........................................................................................................... 25 1.4 Justification of the Study .................................................................................................. 26 1.5 Hypothesis ....................................................................................................................... 27 1.6 Conceptual Framework .................................................................................................... 28 1.7 Study Methodology ......................................................................................................... 32 1.7.1 Research Design ........................................................................................................ 32 v 1.7.2 Research Site ............................................................................................................. 32 1.7.3 Sampling Size of Population ...................................................................................... 33 1.7.4 Data Sources and Data Collection Methods ............................................................... 34 1.7.5 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................ 34 1.7.6 Ethical Considerations ............................................................................................... 35 1.8 Chapter Outline ............................................................................................................... 35 CHAPTER TWO .................................................................................................................... 36 ETHNIC FACTOR IN KENYAN POLITICS AND ELECTORAL VIOLENCE ............... 36 2.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 36 2.1 Negative Ethnicity since the First Multi-party Elections in Kenya .................................... 37 2.2 The 2017 General Elections and its Aftermath ................................................................. 41 2.3 Politicized Ethnic Factor In Politics and Electoral Violence In Kenya ......................... 42 2.4 Identity and Politics in Kenya .......................................................................................... 44 2.5 How ethnic are Kenyan Voters? ....................................................................................... 48 2.6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 51 CHAPTER THREE ................................................................................................................ 54 ROLE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN ENABLING ETHNIC BASED VIOLENCE IN ELECTORAL SYSTEM IN KENYA .................................................................................... 54 3.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 54 3.1 Political Parties and Ethnic based Electoral Violence in Kenya Since 1992 ...................... 56 3.2 Kenya African National Union (KANU) and its Role in Ethnic Based Electoral System .. 56 3.3 The 2002 General Elections and Its Ethnic Dimension ..................................................... 62 3.4 The Role Played By Party of National Union (PNU) and Orange Democratic Party (ODM) In Furthering Ethnic politics and Electoral Violence in 2007/8............................................... 63 3.5 The Role Played by Jubilee Alliance and Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) in Enhancing Ethnic politics and Electoral Violence in 2013 General Elections ......................... 68 vi 3.6 The Role Played by National Super Alliance (NASA) and Jubilee Party in Enhancing of Politics of Ethnicity and Post-Election Violence in 2017 General Elections. .......................... 70 3.7 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 72 CHAPTER FOUR ................................................................................................................... 73 EFFICACY OF THE APPROACHES TO MITIGATE ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN KENYA.................................................................................................................................... 73 4.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 73 4.1 National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) .................................................. 74 4.2 Uwiano Peace Platfoam ................................................................................................... 75 4.3 International Federation of Electoral System (IFES) Programs ......................................... 77 4.4 Approaches Adopted to Mitigate Election Violence and their Efficacy............................. 79 4.4.1 Improved Management and Administration of Elections............................................ 79 4.4.2 Effective Electoral Dispute Resolution ...................................................................... 81 4.4.3 Engagement of the Security Sector ............................................................................ 83 4.4.4 Monitoring of Elections and Verification ................................................................... 85 4.4.5 Civic and Voter Education ........................................................................................
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