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Negotiating the Future of Jerusalem: an Introduction Negotiating the Future of Jerusalem: An Introduction – Executive Summary This study attempts to shed light on the issue of Jerusalem, which is the most complex and challenging issue on the road to an agreement between the two sides of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, whose resolution is vital to the achievement of any agreement. The researchers at the Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research seek to present the Israeli negotiator with a comprehensive overview of negotiations about Jerusalem and the necessary knowledge for future negotiations. The document includes: background material about Jerusalem; an introduction to the negotiations on Jerusalem; possible alternatives to a comprehensive agreement; a broad comparative analysis of the alternatives; alternatives for partial measures; and a review of the issues related to preparation for negotiations as well as suggestions regarding how they should be conducted. For more than two decades the Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research has been studying the geo-political issues related to Jerusalem. The Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research (formerly the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies) is a non-profit institute for policy research. The mission of the institute is to create a data infrastructure for the city, to analyze trends, to examine alternatives, and to make policy recommendations in order to improve the decision- making process and to influence the creation of policy for the benefit of the general public. The institute's principal areas of research are: Research about the city of Jerusalem in the following spheres: urban, demographic, social, economic, physical, and geo-political Research about policy in the spheres of environment and sustainability Research about policy in the spheres of growth and innovation Research about Haredi society Negotiating the Future of Jerusalem: An Introduction Executive Summary Jerusalem Institute for Policy The Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research Meir Kraus, editor The Hay Elyachar House Israel Kimhi, Lior Lehrs, Kobi Michael, Amnon Ramon, and Yitzhak Reiter 20 Radak St., 9218604 Jerusalem Tel: 02-5630175 Research Fax: 02-5639814 http://www.jerusaleminstitute.org.il http://www.en.jerusaleminstitute.org.il E-mail: [email protected] 482 Negotiating the Future of Jerusalem: An Introduction Executive Summary Meir Kraus, editor Israel Kimhi, Lior Lehrs, Kobi Michael, Amnon Ramon, and Yitzhak Reiter Jerusalem, 2018 Publication no. 482 Negotiating the Future of Jerusalem: An Introduction Executive Summary Meir Kraus, editor Israel Kimhi, Lior Lehrs, Kobi Michael, Amnon Ramon, and Yitzhak Reiter Translation from Hebrew: Gilah Kahn-Hoffmann Maps Design: Dafna Shemer, Yair Assaf-Shapira Charts: Yael Shaulski, Yair Assaf-Shapira Print Production: Hamutal Appel Design and Layout: Esti Boehm Proofreading: Caroline Kahlenberg © 2018, The Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research The Hay Elyachar House 20 Radak St., 9218604 Jerusalem http://www.jerusaleminstitute.org.il http://www.en.jerusaleminstitute.org.il E-mail: [email protected] Table of Contents Prologue ..............................................................................................................................5 Executive Summary...........................................................................................................7 Purpose of the document ......................................................................................................7 Basic Assumptions ................................................................................................................8 Moral Dilemmas on the Path to an Agreement on Jerusalem .............................................9 Jerusalem 2018: Background, Data, and Trends ................................................................10 Jerusalem – Situation Assessment based on a ‘Business as Usual’ Scenario .................14 Negotiations about Jerusalem: Interests, Urban Spaces, and Main Issues ......................16 Jerusalem in Negotiation, 1993-2014 ................................................................................22 Alternatives to a Permanent Status Agreement in Jerusalem ..........................................27 The Scope of Possibilities for an Arrangement Regarding the Temple Mount ..................32 A Model for Evaluating the Alternatives ............................................................................34 Evaluating the Alternatives.................................................................................................38 Alternatives in the Absence of a Comprehensive Agreement ...........................................47 Procedural Aspects of the Negotiations .............................................................................49 Epilogue.............................................................................................................................53 The Authors.......................................................................................................................55 List of Maps Jerusalem 2018...................................................................................................................12 Urban Spaces in the Context of Negotiations ....................................................................19 Alternative A – Division of Sovereignty .............................................................................29 Alternative B – Division of Sovereignty and Special Regime ............................................30 Alternative C – Open City ...................................................................................................31 List of Charts Evaluating the Alternatives – Summary .............................................................................40 The Religious-National Identity Dimension ........................................................................41 The Security Dimension ......................................................................................................42 The Municipal Dimension ...................................................................................................43 The Economic Dimension ....................................................................................................44 The Legal Dimension...........................................................................................................45 Feasibility ............................................................................................................................46 4 5 Prologue This document is the Executive Summary This study of the negotiations about the of a comprehensive study published in future of Jerusalem is unique among Hebrew entitled Negotiating the Future the work of experts and policy analysts, of Jerusalem: An Introduction. The study since the question of Jerusalem’s attempts to shed light on the issue of political future is inextricably intertwined Jerusalem, which is the most complex with the city's spiritual, historic, and and challenging issue on the road to an national significance, which is rooted agreement between the two sides of the in both our minds and our emotions.The Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The resolution Jewish people sustained its bond with of the Jerusalem issue is vital to the Jerusalem over two thousand years of achievement of any agreement. exile, and expressed its longing for the city through prayer, ritual, and daily life. This document originated when, as The exhilarating return to the Old City of director of The Jerusalem Institute for Jerusalem in 1967 was the realization of Policy Research (2009-2016), I realized a generations-old dream that resonates in that it was our profound responsibility to the depths of our identity. present decision-makers in Israel with the vast and unique knowledge accumulated This study combines an open-mindedness and developed at the Institute about the and professional policy analysis that may possibilities for the future of Jerusalem, lead to an agreement for the future of the in the form of a comprehensive document. city, on the one hand, and the obligation to preserve the particular Jewish spiritual Imbued with this sense of responsibility, value that the city represents for us, on the writers of this document, as the other. At the same time, we had to researchers at the Jerusalem Institute take into consideration the value that for Policy Research, are pleased to Jerusalem symbolizes for hundreds present the Israeli negotiator with a of millions of people belonging to the comprehensive overview of negotiations other monotheistic religions who look to about Jerusalem and the necessary Jerusalem in admiration and prayer. knowledge for future negotiations. This body of work is the result of wide-ranging, This body of work expresses the tension deep, and ongoing study that is based between the biblical verses: "If I forget on the analysis and recommendations of you Jerusalem, let my right hand forget numerous content and policy experts. its cunning" and "Pray for the peace of 4 5 Jerusalem, may those who love you be Shemer and Yair Assaf-Shapira prepared secure." We hope that we have fulfilled the maps and charts, Caroline Kahlenberg this weighty responsibility, and that this proofread the document, and Hamutal document presents decision makers with Appel prepared the document for press. a realistic map of possibilities for an We thank them all for their important agreement, for the benefit of our future in contributions.
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