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Debt Relief and Beyond And The history of debt relief goes back several decades. It reveals that a country’s accumulation of unsustainable debt stems from such factors as defi ciencies in macroeconomic management, adverse terms-of-trade shocks, and poor governance. Debt-relief initiatives have provided debt-burdened countries with the opportunity for a fresh start, but whether the benefi ts of debt relief can be preserved depends on transformations in a country’s policies and institutions. In 1996, the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative was launched as the fi rst comprehensive, multilateral, debt-relief framework for low-income countries. In 2005, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative was established, which increased the level of debt relief provided to HIPCs. As of early 2009, assistance DEBT RELIEF through these two initiatives had been committed to 35 countries and amounted to US$117 billion in nominal Public Disclosure Authorized terms, or half of the 2007 GDP of these countries. Debt Relief and Beyond assesses the implications of debt relief for low-income countries and how its benefi ts can be preserved and used to fi ght poverty. The chapter authors bring unique operational experience to their examination of debt relief, debt sustainability, and debt management. Several key questions are addressed, including, what consequences does debt relief have for poverty-reducing expenditures, growth, and access to fi nance? Can debt relief guarantee debt sustainability? How can debt management at all levels of government be DEBT RELIEF improved? What lessons can be learned from countries that have experienced debt restructuring? Finally, this book provides sound empirical evidence using current econometric techniques. AND AND For years, debt relief has been extended to poor countries in the belief that they would then be enabled to grow more rapidly and use the resources thus freed for the poor. In this important volume, the contributors undertake systematic BEYOND analyses of the effects of debt relief. The book is a major contribution to our understanding of how effective debt relief is BEYOND as a means of combating poverty, and should be required reading for all those in the development community. Public Disclosure Authorized ANNE O. KRUEGER, Professor of International Economics, Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Herald L. and Caroline L. Ritch Professor Emeritus, Economics Department, Stanford University It is hard to fi nd issues of similar worldwide importance to those discussed in this book. Debt Relief and Beyond addresses questions that are key to the pursuit of global peace and justice in a globalized world. The tools described will undergo a harsh test of their practicability due to the global fi nancial crisis. Accordingly, this book is an important, but certainly not the ultimate, step in the evolving debate about debt and development. CHRISTOPH G. PAULUS, Dean of the Law School and Professor of Law, Humboldt University at Berlin Primo Braga, Dömeland Lessons Learned This book takes up many of the critical issues concerning future policies in the HIPC countries. At their heart is the concern, how can low-income countries avoid repeating the cycle of borrowing themselves into unsustain- and Challenges Ahead ability? Countries that can see light at the end of the tunnel (and who would have thought three decades ago that the likes of Bangladesh and India would now be emerging?) will fi nd much good advice here. Our worries need Public Disclosure Authorized to focus on the countries that are not yet in this position and for which additional grant aid is the only option. JOHN WILLIAMSON, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics ISBN 978-0-8213-7874-8 Edited by SKU 17874 Carlos A. Primo Braga Dörte Dömeland Public Disclosure Authorized Debt Relief and Beyond Debt Relief and Beyond Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead Edited by Carlos A. Primo Braga Dörte Dömeland © 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 12 11 10 09 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Devel- opment / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright .com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-8213-7874-8 eISBN: 978-0-8213-7875-5 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7874-8 Cover design: Edelman Design Communications Cover photo: © Manuel Ribeiro Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Debt relief and beyond: lessons learned and challenges ahead / Carlos A. Primo Braga and Dörte Dömeland (editors). p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-8213-7874-8 — ISBN 978-0-8213-7875-5 (electronic) 1. Debt relief—Developing countries. I. Braga, Carlos Alberto Primo, 1954- II. Dömeland, Dörte, 1971- III. World Bank. HJ8899.D4383 2009 336.3'435091724—dc22 2009020887 Contents Preface xiii Acknowledgments xv Contributors xvii Abbreviations xxi Introduction 1 Dörte Dömeland and Carlos A. Primo Braga Part I: Debt Relief 9 1 Debt Relief to Low-Income Countries: A Retrospective 11 Boris Gamarra, Malvina Pollock, and Carlos A. Primo Braga 2 Debt Relief and Education in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries 35 Jesús Crespo Cuaresma and Gallina Andronova Vincelette 3 Is Debt Relief Good for the Poor? The Effects of the HIPC Initiative on Infant Mortality 49 Juan Pedro Schmid 4 Drivers of Growth in Fragile States: Has the HIPC Process Helped Fragile Countries Grow? 71 Luca Bandiera, Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, and Gallina Andronova Vincelette Part II: Debt Sustainability 91 5 Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries: Recent Experience and Challenges Ahead 93 Christian Beddies, Dörte Dömeland, Marie-Hélène Le Manchec, and Henry Mooney v vi contents 6 Debt Relief and Sustainable Financing to Meet the MDGs 117 Dörte Dömeland and Homi Kharas 7 Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets 141 Udaibir S. Das, Michael G. Papaioannou, and Christoph Trebesch 8 Lessons from Market-Access Countries on Public Debt Sustainability and Growth 181 Brian Pinto and Mona Prasad Part III: Odious Debt 203 9 The Concept of Odious Debt: Some Considerations 205 Vikram Nehru and Mark Thomas 10 Odious Debt as a Principal-Agent Problem 229 Frederico Gil Sander 11 The Economics of Odious Debt 261 Dörte Dömeland, Frederico Gil Sander, and Carlos A. Primo Braga Part IV: Debt Management 293 12 Government Debt Management in Low-Income Countries 295 Phillip Anderson and Eriko Togo 13 Debut Sovereign Bond Issues: Strategic Considerations and Determinants of Characteristics 313 Udaibir S. Das, Michael G. Papaioannou, and Magdalena Polan 14 Subnational Debt Management by Low-Income Countries in Transition to Market Access 343 Lili Liu, Abha Prasad, Francis Rowe, and Signe Zeikate 15 Managing Volatility: Fiscal Policy, Debt Management, and Oil Revenues in the Republic of Congo 373 Nina Budina, Sweder van Wijnbergen, and Ying Li contents vii 16 Debt-Swap Mechanisms Revisited: Lessons from the Chilean Experience of the 1980s 405 Leonardo Hernández Index 427 Boxes 1.1 The Paris Club 12 1.2 Key Features of the HIPC Initiative 26 1.3 Key Features of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative 29 8.1 What Factors Affect a Country’s Level of Debt? 185 9.1 The Stolen Assets Recovery (StAR) Initiative 218 11.1 Noga vs. the Russian Federation 270 12.1 Principles of Sound Practice in Public Debt Management 300 12.2 Steps in Establishing an Effective MTDS 307 13.1 IMF Policy on Nonconcessional External Debt Financing to HIPCs 318 13.2 Determinants of the Size and Cost of Debut Bond Issues 322 14.1 Autonomy and Regulation in Issuing Subnational Debt in India 361 Figures 1.1 Debt Stock of Post–Decision Point HIPCs at Different Stages of Debt Relief 30 2.1 Average Educational Variables in HIPCs at Each Stage of the HIPC Initiative Process 40 2.2 Primary School Dropout Rates in Post–Completion Point HIPCs before and after Reaching the Completion Point 41 2.3 Secondary School Repetition Rates in Post–Completion Point HIPCs before and after Reaching the Completion Point 42 2.4 Distribution of
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