Economic Relations with Newly Industrialising Countries
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A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Kebschull, Dietrich Article — Digitized Version Economic relations with newly industrialising countries Intereconomics Suggested Citation: Kebschull, Dietrich (1983) : Economic relations with newly industrialising countries, Intereconomics, ISSN 0020-5346, Verlag Weltarchiv, Hamburg, Vol. 18, Iss. 6, pp. 286-293, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02928232 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/139890 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. 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Our author argues that, contrary to that opinion, the coming into existence of NICs should be looked upon not as a threat, but as a chance for improvement of the international division of labour and for further growth. conomic relations between industrial and support is economically after all hardly anything else, E developing countries are never without problems. than assistance to East-bloc economies by the so- The advocates of a more intensive cooperation between called capitalist states. It is a case of "supplying the rope the countries of the North and of the South argue mainly with which one will later be hanged", along the lines of on the basis of an economic order based on the Lenin's .motto. With good intentions, new competitors principles of free trade in which the philosophy of are cultivated who then contest the industrial nations' interdependence plays a major role. It is assumed that h~me markets as well as their sales with considerably the transfer of resources from the industrial countries cheaper products. The consequences are would create growth in the developing countries. The unemployment and growth losses in the industrial corresponding increase of the national product would North. This is all the more to be feared as the process of lead to additional demand for products from the structural adjustment, owing to a multitude of industrial countries. These additional exports would, in interventions, in practice occurred neither without turn, contribute to growth in the industrial countries, in friction nor rapidly. The developing countries' growing which case a reinforcement of the effects via multipliers competition leads to an escalation of protectionism and accelerators would be probable, because the industrial nations' governments see themselves increasingly compelled to dampen the According to this concept, problems of structural internal effects. It is also stated that the developing adjustment can be mastered if the price and market countries frequently do not stick to the rules of the mechanisms are not disturbed and the mobility of international division of labour and shut themselves off factors is maintainedl so that every country can utilise its from international competition with more or less specific comparative advantages to the full. The plausible arguments (infant industry argument, or specialisation and adjustment process must not be defence against the economic power of others). delayed or prevented by government intervention. This "faith in the market" will then reward all the parties Looking at the different groups of the total of about involved with permanent and stable growth. 120 developing countries, the fear of competition concerns above all the small group of newly This opinion is often opposed with the argument that industrialising countries. These are usually meant when the development of the LDCs' economies with Western the competition of low-price countries is mentioned. Especially in phases of economic recession and marked * HWWA-Institut f(Jr Wirtschaftsforschung-Hamburg. This article is a structural problems they are blamed with sharing the revised and edited version of a paper presented to the Association of European Conjuncture Institutesin Athens, 2-3 May 1983. responsibility for increased unemployment. 286 INTERECONOMICS,November/December 1983 NICs Characteristics of NlCs, Table 1 A uniform definition of the group of countries to be Development of World Exports and the Exports of Newly Industrialising Countries 1960-1979 considered and which are called "take-off countries", "threshold countries" or "NICs" (newly industrialising Countries Exports in Share of world Average Growth US $ million exports (in %) Rate (in % p.a.) countries) does not exist as yet. But-for the 1960 1979 1960 1979 i characterisation of these countries, which belong to the World 128,275 1,627,030 100.0 100.0 14.3 economically most advanced ones in the Third World, the following common features may be mentioned: NICstotal 10,198 141,165 8.0 8.7 14.8 [] a per capita income of at least US $1,000; Hong Kong 689 15,156 0.5 0.9 17.7 Singapore 1,136 14,233 0.9 0.9 14.2 CI above-average growth rates of the gross national So~Jth Korea 33 15,055 0.0 0.9 38.0 product and of industrial production; Malaysia _a 11,079 - 0.7 - Argentina 1,079 7,810 0.8 0.5 11.0 [] a share of industry in the gross domestic product of Brazil 1,269 15,249 1.0 0.9 14.0 more than 30 %; Uruguay 129 789 0.1 0.0 10.0 Venezuela 2,432 13,111 1.9 0.8 9.3 [] a rapid change in the structure of production; Mexico 740 8,768 0.6 0.5 13.9 Algeria 394 8,198 0.3 0.5 17.3 [] a well-trained labour force, which in the opinion of Nigeria 475 _a 0.4 - - OECD should e.g. be the case when the illiteracy rate is Greece 203 3,855 0.2 0.2 16.8 less than 30 %; Portugal 327 3,468 0.3 0.2 13.2 Spain 726 17,903 0.6 1.1 18.4 [] comparatively low wages and costs accessory to Yugoslavia 566 6,491 0.4 0.4 13.7 wages. USA 20,412 178,578 15.9 11.0 12.1 Three main groups are significant if these criteria are Japan 4.055 103,045 3.2 6.3 18.6 applied: the oil-producing countries, the large states of Federal Republicof 11,415 171,540 8.9 10.5 15.3 Latin America including Mexico, and the South-East Germany Asian countries of Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea a Not available. and Singapore. The rapidity of their development can be S o u r c e : United Nations: Yearbook of International Trade Statistics 1979. seen particularly clearly in the foreign trade sector. 1 During the period from 1960 to 1979 world exports grew from 130 billion US $ to more than 1,600 billion US Table 2 $. The exports of the newly industrialising countries Annual Growth Rates of GDP and Industrial Production in Selected NICs have grown at a considerable speed. After a phase of and Industrial Countries, 1960-1979 stagnation in the fifties they succeeded in doubling their exports in the following decade and even in increasing Per capita Growth rate in per cent p.a. income them nearly tenfold in the last decade (cf. Table 1), Count~ in US $ GDP Industr.Production although their share in world exports remained nearly (1979) 1960-19701970-19791960-19701970-1979 constant, rising only from 8.0 per cent (1960) to 8.7 per Hong Kong 3,760 10.0 9.4 - 4.3 cent (1979). Exceptional circumstances played a Singapore 3,830 8.8 8.4 12.5 8.6 South Korea 1,480 6.6 10.3 17.2 16.5 decisive role in the case of the oil-exporting countries. Malaysia 1,370 6.5 7.9 - 9.9 But even apart from this, the successful growth of the Argentina 2,230 4.2 2.5 5.9 2.4 other newly industrialising countries, accompanying Brazil 1,78Q 5.4 8.7 - 9.6 Uruguay 2,100 1.2 2.5 1.1 4.2 their exports, remains a phenomenon comparable only Venezuela1 3,120 6.0 5.5 4.6 3.1 with the era of the Japanese and the German economic Mexico1 1,640 7.2 5.1 9.1 6.4 miracles (cf. Table 2). Algeria1 1,590 4.6 5.8 12.9 6.5 Nigeria ~ 670 3.1 7.5 12.0 11.2 Particularly in the South-East Asian states, USA 10,630 4.3 3.1 5.1 2.7. integration into the world economy, with its division of Japan 8,810 10.5 5.2 10.9 5.6 Federal labour and the growth process of the past two decades, Republic of 11,730 414 2.6 5.2 2.1 was linked with extensive structural changes. The Germany 1 Belongs also to the group of oil-producing countries.