CITY OF SIERRA VISTA LEGISLATIVE WRAP-UP ELECTIONS UPDATE September 11, 2018
TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 1 WHO WE ARE . Established in 2002. Functions as a bi-partisan team actively engaging on behalf of clients at the state and local levels of government.
. The Triadvocates team has first- hand knowledge and experience with all aspects of navigating government.
. At all times endeavor to conduct ourselves consistent with our values; Quality, Integrity, Stewardship, Teamwork TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 2
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2018 LEGISLATIVE WRAP-UP
. Session by the Numbers . Historic Moments . State Budget . Primary Elections Update . Looking Ahead
TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 3 .
2018 LEGISLATIVE SESSION 116-Day Legislative Session Adjourned Sine Die on May 4th at 12:26 a.m. Bills Introduced 1,206 803 Rep – 403 Dem Bills Passed 369 363 Rep – 6 Dem Bills Signed 346 340 Rep – 6 Dem Bills Vetoed 23 23 Rep – 0 Dem Bills Dead 860 463 Rep – 397 Dem * Unless otherwise specified, the general effective date
. for all bills was August 3, 2018.
* The Legislature is adjourned until January 7, 2019
. unless a special session is convened by the Governor.
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2018 HISTORIC MOMENTS
Opioid Epidemic Special Session #RedForED . Special session held within regular session . Statewide 6-day teacher walk out . Bipartisan support with a unanimous vote . Over 50,000 marched to the . First bill to become law in 2018 State Capitol . Resulted in 20x2020 teacher pay increase Legislative Expulsion . House of Representatives voted to expel Rep. Don Shooter from the Legislature over sexual misconduct . 82-page Independent Investigative Report . First U.S. state lawmaker to be voted out of office since the # M e To o movement
TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 5 2018 LOCAL GOVERNMENT HIGHLIGHTS General Policies Tax Policies . HURF Funding . Construction TPT Simplification SB1409 . Video Service Licensure SB1140 – effective 2020 effective January 1, 2019 . Expands the Traumatic Event Counseling Program . Food Tax Equality HB2484 for First Responders HB2502 . Alt Fuel Highway Safety Fee HB2166 . Public Meeting Violation Penalties HB2065 . Online Lodging Marketplace Registration . EORP COLA Reforms HB2545 SB1382 effective January 1, 2019 . EORP ER Contributions Cap Removal SB1478 . Education Sales Tax Continuation SB1390 . Private School Zoning Exemption HB2461 . Food Trucks State Licensure HB2371 . Occupational Licensing Regulation HB2532 . Blockchain Preemption HB2602 . Construction TPT Noncompliance Study HB2416 . Consolidated Elections Voter Turn Out HB2604
TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 6 Impacts to Local Government
What didn’t happen? . Water Policy . County Adequate Water Supply Review SB1515 / HB2553 . Digital Goods Tax Reform HB2479 . County Excise Tax for Transportation SB1147 . Rural Growth Tax Credit HB2590 . Crime Emergency Responsiveness Website Posting HB2562 . Independent Redistricting Commission SCR1034 . Increase in max allowable tax deduction for military pensions HB2236 . Local Regulations for home-based businesses HB2333 / SB1347
TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 7 FY 2019 STATE BUDGET
The approved FY 2019 State Budget consists of $10.4 billion in spending, increasing the current state spending by 5.7%, with K-12 education the main focus. The new spending is mostly funded by projected increases in state revenue.
After calculating all new revenue and factoring all new spending, the State is left with a $151M structural balance in FY19, however it drops to only $3M by FY21.
The budget does not conform Arizona’s tax code to the federal tax law changes. ADOR scored revenue benefits of conformity at approximately $235M while JLBC estimated $140M.
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ARIZONA PRIMARY ELECTIONS UPDATE
TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 9 2018 ELECTION OVERVIEW STATE • All statewide offices up for election • New legislative leadership teams in both chambers • All 30 legislative districts up for election
FEDERAL • One – potentially two – open U.S. Senate seats • All nine congressional districts up for election with three open seats (CD2, CD8, CD9)
STATEWIDE BALLOT INITIATIVES • Pension Reform (CORP & EORP) – Prop 125 • Protect Arizona Taxpayers Act – Prop 126 • Clean Energy for Healthy Arizona – Prop 127 • Expansion of School Vouchers Referendum – Prop 305 • Citizens Clean Elections; Unlawful Contributions – Prop 306 • Invest in Education #RedForED – Prop 207 TRIADVOCATES• ConfidentialSTOP Political and Proprietary Dirty Money 10 2018 LEGISLATIVE SHIFTS
Seeking Retiring Switching Chambers Higher Office 8 6 19 • Rep. Saldate (D-3) • Rep. Coleman (R-6; Justice of the • Rep. Alston (D-24); Rep. Boyer (R-20); • Rep. Barton (R-6) Peace) Rep. Carter (R-15); Rep. E. Farnsworth • Rep. Decsheenie (D-7) • Sen. Farley (D-9; Governor)* (R-12); Rep. Gonzales (D-3); Rep. John • Rep. Bennally (D-7) • Sen. Smith (R-11; CD1)* (R-14)*; Rep. Leach (R-11); Rep. • Rep. Cardenas (D-19) • Sen. Yee (R-20; State Treasurer) Martinez (D-30)*; Rep. Mesnard (R- • Sen. Yarborough (R-17) • Sen. Katie Hobbs (D-24; Secretary 17); Rep. Navarrete (D-30); Rep. Rios • Sen. Worsley (R-25) of State) (D-27); Rep. Ugenti-Rita (R-23); Rep. • Sen. Burges (R-22) • Sen. Miranda (D-27; CD7)* Livingston (R-22)
• Sen. Barto (R-15); Sen. Cajero- Bedford (D-3)*; Sen. Griffin (R-14); Sen. Kavanagh (R-23); Sen. Meza (D- 30); Sen. Petersen (R-12)
TRIADVOCATES * Indicates Candidate Confidential Who and Proprietary Lost in the Primary Election 11
Political Climate
TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 12 2018 ARIZONA ELECTIONS
Election Dates • Primary – Tuesday, August 28 • General – Tuesday, November 6
Quick Stats • 225 legislative candidates • Pro Education • 12 open legislative seats • 4 Independent candidates running in Republican districts
Tre n ds • Crowded primaries • High number of incumbents facing challenges (15 in the Senate; 20 in the House) • Democrat challengers in “safe” Republican districts • Newly energized voters TRIADVOCATES Confidential• andSurge Proprietary of first -time candidates13 with high number of teachers and women PRIMARY RECAP: KEY RACES FOR SIERRA VISTA
GOVERNOR U.S. Senate Doug Ducey (R) Martha McSally (R) David Garcia (D) Joe Arpaio (R) Steve Farley (D) Kelli Ward (R) Kyrsten Sinema (D) LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT 14 Deedra Abboud (D)
A Z SENATE Drew John (R) CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 2 David Gowan (R) Lea Marquez-Peterson (R) Lori Kilpatrick (R) Brandon Martin (R) Jaime Alvarez (D) Daniel Romero Morales (R) Mendy Gomez, (D) Casey Welch (R) Rr. Matt Heinz (D) AZ HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Gail Griffin (R) Bruce Wheeler (D) Becky Nutt (R) Billy Kovacs (D) Bob Karp (D) Maria Matiella (D) Shelley Renne-Leon (D) Barbara Sherry (D) TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 14 Yahya Yuksel (D)
PRIMARY RECAP: KEY FEDERAL RACES
U.S. Senate – Governor Ducey appointed Sen. Jon Kyl to fill the vacancy left by the passing of Sen. John McCain. Sen Jon Kyl has only committed to serve until the end of this year.
Congressional District 1 (R): Rogers v. Shedd v. Smith Arizona's northeastern district includes 11 of the state's 15 counties. It runs from the Utah border down to the outskirts of Tucson, pulling in Flagstaff and parts of Pinal County.
Congressional District 7 (D): Gallego v. Miranda Includes much of inner Phoenix, as well as the eastern portion of Glendale.
Congressional District 8 (R): Dowling v. Lesko Covers the West Valley from New River south to Goodyear and from Peoria west past the Sun cities. Includes Luke Air Force Base and is entirely within Maricopa County.
Congressional District 9 (R): Ferrara v. Giles v. Baroness Von Behr One of five primarily urban districts, runs from north-central Phoenix covering portions of Tempe, Mesa, Chandler and back into Ahwatukee Foothills in south Phoenix.
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PRIMARY RECAP: KEY STATEWIDE RACES
Secretary of State (R): Gaynor v. Reagan
Superintendent of Public Instruction (R): Branch v. Douglas v. Gelbart v. Livingston v. Riggs – TOO CLOSE TO CALL as of September, 5
Superintendent of Public Instruction (D): Hoffman v. Schapira
Treasurer (R): Sabbagh v. Ye e
Arizona Corporation Commission (R): Forese v. Glassman v. O'Connor v. Olson v. Sloan
Arizona Corporation Commission (D): Kennedy v. Mundell v. Sears
TRIADVOCATES Confidential and Proprietary 16 2018 ELECTIONS FORECAST
House Senate Competitive Districts
2018 Membership: 2018 Membership: • LD6 – Payson, Sedona, Flagstaff, • 35 Republicans • 17 Republicans Williams, Snowflake • 25 Democrats • 13 Democrats • LD8 – Casa Grande, Eloy, Globe, Florence, Superior 2019 Forecast: 2019 Forecast: • LD10 – Tucson • R’s expected to retain majority, • Possible 15-15 split—or even a • LD17 – Chandler, Gilbert but Ds may pick up 2 seats for flip to D majority • LD18 – Chandler, Tempe, Mesa, East a 33-27 split Leadership: Phoenix Leadership: • All new R team • LD20 – Glendale, West Phoenix • 3 of 4 R members may remain • 2 of 4 D members may remain • LD28 – Scottsdale, North Phoenix, • 2 of 3 D members may remain Paradise Valley
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LOOKING AHEAD 2019
Good Governance New Revenue . Online Sales Taxation . Nexus Determination . New Gaming compacts? Sports wagering? Transportation Funding . HURF Affordable Housing Dedicated Revenue for Education Funding New Legislators – Outreach . Minimum of 14 new freshmen (6 Representatives; 8 Senators)
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THANK YOU!
Julie Rees Triadvocates, Principal [email protected]
Lourdes Peña Triadvocates, Public Affairs Advisor [email protected]
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