Impact of Climate Change on Apricot Yield in Turkey in the Near Future

EGU21-5261, updated on 27 Sep 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5261 EGU General Assembly 2021 © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

M. Tufan Turp1,2, Nazan An2, Gökhan Özertan2,3, and M. Levent Kurnaz2,4 1Institute of Environmental Sciences, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey ([email protected]) 2Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey ([email protected]) 3Department of Economics, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey ([email protected]) 4Department of Physics, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey ([email protected])

Apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) is one of the most important export crops in Turkey and Turkey is the leader for both fresh and dried apricots production in the world. Apricot can be grown in all regions of Turkey with climate and vegetation diversities, except in the Eastern Black Sea Region and in the high plateaus of the East Anatolian Region. Malatya is the main producer province, which has good ecological and soil conditions in terms of apricot cultivation with the highest quality in Turkey. However, it is possible to talk about irregularities and decreases in apricot yield due to climate change in the region. Therefore, this study aims to observe climate change impacts on apricot yield in the main producer city, Malatya. Hereunder, climate projections were made at a 10 km horizontal resolution for the future period of 2021-2050 under the “worst-case” scenario (RCP8.5) using a regional climate model (RegCM4.4) for Malatya province considering 13 sub- regions. A statistical model, panel data method-multiple regression model, is designed to observe the effect of climate change and variability on the yield. Results indicate that adverse impacts of climate change on biological development of apricot lead to production irregularities and significant losses in yield in Malatya.

Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Boğaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 16763.