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SEE-MHEWS-A Project Component 3 Activities Hydrological Modelling

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SEE-MHEWS-A Project Component 3 activities Hydrological modelling Tatjana Vujnovic Fredrik Wetterhall Yuri A. Simonov Head of hydrological forecasting unit Senior Researcher Head of Department, Roshydromet ECMWF DHMZ Chair of WMO Standing Committee – [email protected] [email protected] Hydrological Services [email protected] Steering Committee Meeting of Phase II of SEE-MHEWS-A Project 12 June 2020 ECMWF support to the hydrological modelling Main goal: Setup hydrological forecasting in real-time over the region and disseminate the output to users -> Operational framework with 24/7 support to entire chain 2 Project overview 1. Collect data Done 2. Setup of models Done 3. Calibrate models Ongoing/done 4. Setup system Ongoing 5. Long-term runs Q3-Q4 2020 6. Produce forecasts 7. Disseminate results Q1-Q2 2021 8. Validate the performance 3 Following the WMO Hydrological principles WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative Implementation Strategy Enhancing National Capacity in E2E EWS EVALUATION OF Community of Practice NATIONAL CAPABILITIES E2E EWS for Flood Forecasting - Community of Practice GUIDANCE MATERIAL TRAINIG PROGRAMMES PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION SEE-MHEWS-A Hydrologic component - approach Assess current status of observations, data management, modelling Selecting pilot basin(s) Historical data collection Selected models: Model(s) selection - LISFLOOD - properties (physiographic, man made) - HBV - data conditions - 1D hydraulic model - end-user requirements Updating Calibration/verification procedure Validating the system with NWP inputs Implementing the modeling system into operational use SEE-MHEWS-A Countries (NHSs) assessment Selection criteria for the pilot: - strong need for hydrological forecast Vrbas river basin system improvement/implem entation - hydrometeorological data availability - demonstrate the abilities and benefits of entire system - transboundary basin - reservoir(s) The Vrbas river basin – National institutions involved Political entity of Institution, involved Responsibility Bosnia and in flood EWS Herzegovina Federation of Bosnia Federal Hydrometeorological and Herzegovina hydrometeorological service, Member of WMO Service of Federation of (together with RHMZ) Bosnia and Herzegovina (FHMI) Federation of Bosnia Agency for Watershed of Hydrological monitoring and Herzegovina Adriatic Sea Mostar and forecasting (AVPJM) Federation of Bosnia JP „Elektroprivreda HZ Operations of Jajce-1, and Herzegovina HB“ d.d. Mostar, HPP Jajce-2 HPPs "Vrbas" basin, Jajce Federation of Bosnia Agency of the Sava river Hydrological monitoring and Herzegovina basin (ASRB) and forecasting Republika Srpska Republic Hydrometeorological Hydrometeorological service, Member of WMO Service of Republika (together with FHMI) Srpska (RHMZ RS) Republika Srpska Waters of Srpska Water resources (Vode Srpska) management Republika Srpska HOLDING COMPANY Operations of Bocac-1, „ELEKTROPRIVREDA RS“, Bocac-2 HPPs TREBINjE, ZP „Hidroelektrane na Vrbasu" a.d. Mrkonjić Grad Data collection and processing Observed data: o Hydrometeorological network: o automatic stations: 2015 – present time o manual stations: before 2015 o Water reservoirs data: inflow, outflow and water levels (Jajce 1, 2; Bocac 1, 2) Surface information: o Soil types maps o Land use information o LiDAR Other data: cross sections, Q/H curves, flood defense levels, etc. Data processing and quality assessment and control Data: o Gathered from 2 Hydromet Services, 2 HPP companies and Agency for the Sava river basin o Different input & output formats o Yuri & Tatjana divided work to get agreed csv outputs o Articles and data research Data rescue Data saving – hydrological data from the Bočac 1&2 dams/ hydropower plants ➢ digitalization: 24.03.2020. – 22.05.2020. ➢ scanned 9701 .jpg files (+ 10-15% more due to double files) in combination with 20 xls tables ➢ some of data were low scan quality (barely legible) Systematically sorted data: ➢Hydrological data from the Bočac hydropower dam1 (2004–2018.) WL (h): 08.10.2004. – 22.07.2019. INFLOW (h): 15.02.2018. – 21.07.2019. (every 6 hours, more often if necessary) INFLOW (d): 03.02.1996. – 23.07.2019. ➢Hydrological data from the Bočac hydropower dam2 (2004–2018) WL (h): 21.11.2004. – 22.07.2019. Outflow Q (h): 21.11.2004. – 22.07.2019. Hydrologic modeling domains and forecasting points Forecasting points Watershed area, № River Hydrological station km2 1 Vrbas Gornji Vakuf 208 2 Bistrica Bistrica 165 3 Veseocica Veseocica 134 4 Vrbas Bugojno 750 5 Vrbas Daljan 909 6 Pliva Majevac 141 7 Janj Sarici 271 8 Pliva Volari 584 9 Vrbas Kozluk Jajce 2054 10 Josavka Josavka 364 11 Vrbas Bočac 2881 12 Vrbas Banja Luka 3418 13 Vrbanja Donji Obodnik 295 14 Vrbanja Vrbanja 772 15 Vrbas Delibašino Selo 4269 16 Vrbas Klasnice 4496 Implementing the WMO model and platform selection criteria (developments of the CHy TT’s On interoperable models and platforms advances for flood forecasting) Preliminary modeling results HBV Daljan(6h) Vrbanja (6h) Volari (24h) Kozluk (6h) Testing Vrbas long-time run (1990-2020) • Parameter maps clipped from the fresh EFAS 4.0 benchmark • Changes on the Vrbas local drain direction map, mask... • Setting up 12 Q hydro stations at LISFLOOD grid • Non calibrated, calibration follows ObsID StationName 1735Gornji Vakuf 1736Kozluk 2968Vrbanja 2975Daljan 5001Bistrica 5002Veseocica 5101Banja Luka 5102Delibasino Selo 5103Donji Obodnik 5104Majevac 5105Volari 5106Sarici The first LISFLOOD results (run 1990-2020) Daljan, Vrbas Kozluk, Vrbas Vrbanja, Vrbanja Delibašino Selo, Vrbas Next steps • Full calibration of LISFLOOD • Setup of data stream • Implementation of 1D hydraulic model in the lower part of the Vrbas river basin • Validation the forecast system with NWP inputs (case study) • Real-time data, including water levels, streamflow data, HPP data (Bocac-2) for output updating. Links with TT-Obs. Extra material 16 HBV model - Conceptual water-balance model operationally used worldwide (Lindström et al., 1997); - Freely available open source code (Python 3.5); - Additions to the code: - Hourly time-step was implemented (initial model – daily time-step) - Calibration routine added - Output adjustment based on latest observations - Forcing: - Precipitation, air temperature forecasts (in met. stations) - observations (precipitation, air temperature) - observation of streamflow (for output updating) Schematic structure of the HBV-96 model (adopted from SMHI https://www.smhi.se/en/research/research-departments/hydrology/hbv-1.90007) LISFLOOD - EFAS LISFLOOD is a spatially distributed spatially distributed rainfall-runoff-routing model, developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission since 1997. Its most prominent application is probably within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) operated under the Copernicus Emergency Management System (EMS). - driven by meteorological forcing data (P, T, PET...). - complete water balance at a 6-hourly or daily time step for every grid cells of the domain. - produced runoff of every grid cell is routed through the river network using a kinematic wave approach. - options to simulate lakes, reservoirs and water abstraction. - coded by using the Python programming language and a PCRaster Python extension. - open-source. LISFLOOD components: a 2-layer soil water balance sub-model + sub-models for the simulation of groundwater and subsurface flow (using 2 parallel interconnected linear reservoirs) + sub-model for the routing of surface runoff to the nearest river channel + sub-model for the routing of channel flow.
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