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Economic Impact of Mountain Biking in the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre & Gunnison National Forests

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Economic Impact of Mountain Biking in the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre & Gunnison National Forests Economic Impact of Mountain Biking in the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre & Gunnison National Forests JAMES N. MAPLES, PhD MICHAEL J. BRADLEY, PhD Report submitted to Outdoor Alliance: November 2018 Study funded by Outdoor Alliance Image Credit: Carl Zoch 1 Executive Summary of Study Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forest (GMUG) is an important American mountain biking destination. Mountain bikers visited the GMUG over 150,000 times per year. An estimated 70% of these visits were from persons living outside the GMUG and surrounding region. Over 576 mountain bikers from around the nation responded to our survey collecting their economic expenditures on their most recent trip to the GMUG. Based on the economic impact analysis and NVUM visitation figures, the research team estimates: 1. Mountain bike visitors who are not local residents annually spend $24 million in the GMUG. 2. Mountain bike visitors’ expenditures in the GMUG support 315 jobs and $7.9 million in job income within the region. REPORT CONTENTS Meet Your Research Team 2 Methodological Notes 3 Study Regions 4 Visitor Mean Expenditures 5 Economic Impact Terminology 8 Economic Impact Modeling 9 Taxation Generation within the Study Areas 10 Visitor Expenditures beyond Study Area but in State 11 Local Resident Expenditures by Study Area 12 Local Resident Expenditures beyond Study Area but Inside State 15 Omissions, Considerations 16 1 Meet Your Research Team DR. JAMES N. MAPLES is an associate professor of sociology at Eastern Kentucky University, where he examines the political economy of renewable tourism. His research interests include the economic impact of outdoor recreation and social change in rural areas. In his free time, he is conducting an oral history of rock climbing in Kentucky’s Red River Gorge. He is also an Eagle Scout, Girl Scout dad, and metal detectorist. [email protected] DR. MICHAEL J. BRADLEY is an associate professor and director of graduate studies in the Department of Recreation and Park Administration at Eastern Kentucky University. His professional and academic interests include human dimensions of natural resource and wildlife management as well as sustainable recreation practices as it relates to outdoor recreation. [email protected] CONTACT INFORMATION FOR FUTURE STUDIES Our research team regularly conducts economic impact studies, surveys, assessments, interpretation studies, and other kinds of community-driven studies. If you or your organization is interested in conducting a study, please contact lead researchers Dr. James Maples or Dr. Michael Bradley (emails above) for further information. 2 Methodological Notes STUDY PURPOSE The purpose of this study is to examine the annual economic impact of mountain biking visitors in the GMUG based upon expenditures from most recent 2017 or 2018 visit. DATA COLLECTION The researchers collected data using an online survey available from July 14, 2018 until August 24, 2018. This is best treated as a convenience sample. The final survey language is available upon request. The survey included questions examining economic expenditures across fifteen sectors and are outlined in this report. The survey included questions about where the respondent lives the majority of the year, the size of the group accounted for in the respondent’s economic impact questions, and a lodging selection. The research team used all of these questions in creating the economic estimates. ANALYSIS This study uses established techniques utilized in previous peer-reviewed economic impact studies. First, respondents were sorted by local residents (respondents who self-reported as being a resident of the GMUG and immediate surrounding area) and visitors (respondents self-reporting as living outside the GMUG area). Local residents are separated from the economic impact estimates as their expenditures, while important, are not typically treated as true economic impact. Their mean expenditures are, however, reported as a supplement to the economic impact estimates. Second, mean expenditures were established for mountain biking visitors in each study area for each of the fifteen economic impact categories. Means are also included for expenditures outside the study area but still within the state of Colorado. Third, group sizes in expenditures are addressed by dividing the respondent’s reported expenditures by their reported group size. Fourth, respondent cases in each mean with values higher than the third standard deviation were marked as missing data. This technique prevents overestimating economic impact and provides reliable, conservative means. Fifth, these means are entered into IMPLAN, an industry-leading economic impact calculation system, which uses input-output modeling to establish economic impact across three measures: output, value added, and job income. Sixth, these estimates are shaped by visitation data from the National Visitor Use Monitoring survey conducted by the Forest Service. Visitation data were verified with the International Mountain Bicycling Association and broken down by study area to create a more nuanced economic estimate by study area. 3 Study Regions This study includes four study areas: Grand Junction, Crested Butte, West Slope, and Ouray. Each are explained in detail below. The economic impact study areas are built around common outdoor recreation destinations and the cities and towns where outdoor recreation users are most apt to spend funds as part of their trip. REGION ONE: GRAND JUNCTION Table 1A The Grand Junction study area includes Economic Indicator Summary of Grand Junction mountain biking opportunities in Grand Mesa, Indicator Value Cedaredge, and McClure Pass areas, as well Gross Regional Product* $8,043,682 as the Uncompahgre Plateau, Montrose, Total Personal Income* $8,987,203 Norwood, and Paonia / Northfork areas. Total Employment 129,873 Expenditures are modeled in Mesa County, Number of Industries 298 Delta County, Montrose County, and San Land Area (square miles) 7,996 Miguel County. These counties include cities Population 230,013 and towns such as Cedaredge, Paonia, Total Households 91,470 Crawford, Hotchkiss, Montrose, Norwood, and Telluride. It also includes the Grand Junction metropolitan statistical area. REGION TWO: CRESTED BUTTE Table 1B The Crested Butte study area includes Economic Indicator Summary of Crested Butte Crested Butte, Gunnison, and Taylor Park Indicator Value mountain biking opportunities. It is modeled Gross Regional Product* $817,151 in Gunnison County, which includes both Total Personal Income* $710,875 Gunnison and Crested Butte. Total Employment 13,044 Number of Industries 176 Land Area (square miles) 3,239 Population 16,408 Total Households 7,165 REGION THREE: WEST SLOPE Table 1C The West Slope study area is the Western Economic Indicator Summary of West Slope Slope of the Monarch Pass area. This Indicator Value aggregated area includes Canyon Creek Trail, Gross Regional Product* $1,470,259 Monarch Crest, Agate Creek Trail, Cochetopa Total Personal Income* $1,473,027 Hills, and Colorado Trails. The study area is Total Employment 24,937 modeled in Gunnison County and Chafee Number of Industries 203 County, which includes Gunnison and Salida Land Area (square miles) 4,252 as likely locations for expenditures. Population 35,466 Total Households 15,758 *Gross Regional Product and Total Personal Income listed in 1000s 4 Study Regions, Continued REGION FOUR: OURAY Table 1D The Ouray study area includes mountain biking Economic Indicator Summary of West Slope in Ouray and Ridgway, Telluride, Silverton, Indicator Value and Lake City. The study area is modeled in Gross Regional Product* $815,090 San Miguel, Hinsdale, and Ouray counties. Total Personal Income* $888,412 Total Employment 4,181 Number of Industries 181 Land Area (square miles) 2,946 Population 13,662 Total Households 6,151 Visitor Mean Expenditures Tables 2A - 2D detail overall mean Table 2A visitor expenditures inside the study Visitor Mean Expenditures in the Grand Junction Study Area areas. Mean expenditures are an (Estimated 27,440 annual visits) averaged figure of what economic activity one outdoor recreation visit Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max (on average) to the study area creates. Fast food 108 $16.88 25.60 0 100 Sit-down dining 111 $90.49 89.42 0 500 Mean expenditures were separately Grocery Stores 110 $59.19 84.07 0 500 created for visitors and local residents Gas station food 112 $7.63 13.21 0 50 across fifteen common economic impact Gasoline & oil 112 $73.09 63.38 0 300 categories covering most every facet Retail gear 114 $30.93 63.76 0 500 of expenditures on a typical trip to the Retail, non-food 110 $9.95 21.24 0 100 GMUG study areas. Rental gear 114 $3.22 19.98 0 180 Each table includes means that have Guide service 115 $0.22 2.33 0 25 previously had all cases above three Rental Car 114 $0.00 0.00 0 0 standard deviations recoded as missing Taxi / Uber / Lyft 113 $0.36 2.40 0 20 data to discourage points of influence Adventure tourism 115 $0.00 0.00 0 0 that overstate economic impact. The Entertainment 114 $5.82 17.05 0 100 means and standard deviations listed in Hotels & resorts 114 $77.95 163.96 0 900 the table are the result of this process, Camping 114 $10.00 23.87 0 100 hence they may still include cases three deviations above the new estimates. In the Grand Junction study area (Table 2A), the largest expenditures were in sit-down dining (e.g. with wait staff) at $90.49 per trip and lodging at $77.95. Per visit expenditures for visitors to the Grand Junction study area averaged $385.73. *Gross Regional Product and Total Personal Income listed in 1000s 5 Visitor Mean Expenditures, Continued In the Crested Butte study area Table 2B (Table 2B), the greatest expenditures Visitor Mean Expenditures in the Crested Butte Study Area were again sit-down dining ($126.84) (Estimated 37,583 Annual Visits) and lodging ($160.53). The next highest mean expenditure was at grocery stores Variable Obs Mean Std.
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