Census Bureau Population Estimates for North Carolina Metropolitan and Micropolitan Areas and Counties
North Carolina had the 4th largest numeric change between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2018, and many of the state’s metropolitan and micropolitan areas are the largest and fastest growing in the nation, according to the latest population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau on April 18, 2019. The majority (57%) of North Carolina’s 100 counties grew during this same period – with the largest numeric and percentage growth occurring in metropolitan counties in the state – particularly those in the Piedmont and along the coast (Figure 1).
Between 2017 and 2018, 71 of North Carolina’s 100 counties grew. This compares to 55 percent of all counties nationwide. Brunswick County was the 9th fastest growing county in the nation (4th among counties with populations of 20,000 or more).
Population increases in the state and for most counties during this decade has remained slower than the change that occurred between 2000 and 2010 (on an annualized basis). Only in four counties is the rate of growth faster than what was experienced in the previous decade: Durham, Gaston, and Yancey Counties. These counties have added more people in the 8 1/4 years since the last Census as they did in the previous decade.
This report summarizes the Census Bureau’s latest population estimates. The State of North Carolina and many counties, municipalities and other organizations are now working to ensure a complete count of the total population in North Carolina on April 1, 2020 – the count date for the next decennial census. More information about these efforts can be found at: https://census.nc.gov/.
Figure 1.
The North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management is a member of the Federal- State Cooperative for Population Estimates
(FSCPE) and is the Lead Agency for the North Carolina State Data Center (SDC).
Population Change in Metropolitan/Micropolitan Areas1
North Carolina is home to some of the largest and fastest growing metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas in the nation. At 2.6 million, the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia (NC-SC) Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was the 23rd largest in the United States in 2018 (ranked 24th in 2010). At 1.4 million, the Raleigh MSA ranked 42nd (ranked 48th in 2010) and the Greensboro-High Point MSA was ranked 75th (at 768,000) nationally. North Carolina counties are included in the Virginia Beach-Norfolk- Newport News, VA-NC MSA which ranked 37th nationally in 2018 (it ranked 36th in 2010).
Brunswick County is part of the Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC Metro Area which was the 2nd fastest growing (3.8%) metropolitan area in the United States between 2017 and 2018 and since the last decennial census (at 27.7% percentage increase). The Raleigh MSA was the 10th fastest growing MSA in the nation between 2010 and 2018 (at 20.5%) and the 22nd fastest growing between 2017 and 2018 (at 2.1%). The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia (NC-SC) MSA had the 31st fastest growth at 15.9%.
The Dunn Micropolitan Statistical Area (Harnett County) is the 10th most populated micropolitan area in the nation. The population increased from 132,229 in 2017 to 134,214 in 2018, an increase of 1,985 people (4th largest numeric growth among all Micropolitan Statistical Areas). The Pinehurst-Southern Pines Micropolitan Statistical Area (Moore County) had the 12th largest numeric change between 2017 and 2018 (1,450 people). There were an estimated 98,682 people in the Pinehurst-Southern Pines Micropolitan Statistical Area in 2018.
Figure 2.
1 Statistical areas are defined by the Federal Office of Management and Budget. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are comprised of counties containing a central city of 50,000 or more in population and surrounding counties with a high level of commuting with the central city.
Micropolitan Statistical Areas are organized around central towns of 10,000 but less than 50,000 in population. Both MSAs and Micropolitan Statistical Areas may contain multiple counties and may cross state lines.
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Percent Population Change Population growth continues to be concentrated in and around major metropolitan areas of the state – and particularly in the piedmont and coastal areas. Thirty-five counties had rates of growth that were equal to or faster than the state’s growth rate of 1.1% between 2017 and 2018 (Figure 2). The fastest population growth between 2017 and 2018 occurred in Brunswick (4.6%), Johnston (3.2%), Currituck (2.8%), Chatham (2.7%), Franklin (2.3%), Pender (2.3%), and Cabarrus (2.2%) Counties.
Between 2010 and 2018, Brunswick County was the fastest growing county in North Carolina, increasing in population size by 27.3 percent (or 29,315 people – Table 1). This is followed by Wake (21.2 percent), Johnston (20.0 percent), Pender (19.1 percent), and Mecklenburg (18.9 percent) Counties. Twenty-two counties grew faster than the state between 2010 and 2018 (more than an 8.9 percent increase).
Table 1. Population and Population Change for the Twenty Counties in North Carolina with the Largest Percentage Increase from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018 Change Change Population 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2018* County 2000 2010 2018 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent Brunswick 73,121 107,429 136,744 34,308 46.9 29,315 27.3 Wake 627,906 901,058 1,092,305 273,152 43.5 191,247 21.2 Johnston 121,998 168,877 202,675 46,879 38.4 33,798 20.0 Pender 41,071 52,198 62,162 11,127 27.1 9,964 19.1 Mecklenburg 695,348 919,668 1,093,901 224,320 32.3 174,233 18.9 Cabarrus 131,043 178,087 211,342 47,044 35.9 33,255 18.7 Durham 223,270 269,999 316,739 46,729 20.9 46,740 17.3 Union 123,834 201,334 235,908 77,500 62.6 34,574 17.2 Harnett 90,978 114,681 134,214 23,703 26.1 19,533 17.0 Hoke 33,708 46,890 54,764 13,182 39.1 7,874 16.8 Chatham 49,396 63,481 73,139 14,085 28.5 9,658 15.2 Currituck 18,179 23,547 27,072 5,368 29.5 3,525 15.0 New Hanover 160,315 202,683 232,274 42,368 26.4 29,591 14.6 Iredell 122,631 159,451 178,435 36,820 30.0 18,984 11.9 Moore 74,772 88,242 98,682 13,470 18.0 10,440 11.8 Franklin 47,284 60,553 67,560 13,269 28.1 7,007 11.6 Onslow 150,418 177,799 197,683 27,381 18.2 19,884 11.2 Alamance 130,750 151,160 166,436 20,410 15.6 15,276 10.1 Watauga 42,684 51,057 55,945 8,373 19.6 4,888 9.6 Henderson 89,184 106,713 116,748 17,529 19.7 10,035 9.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018 and 2000-2010 Intercensal Estimates. 2000 and 2010 Estimates Base. *99 months change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.
Numeric Population Change The two largest counties in North Carolina (Mecklenburg and Wake Counties) accounted for 43 percent of the state’s total population growth between 2010 and 2018 of 847,884 people (Table 2). Between 2010 and 2018, the population in Wake County increased by 191,247 people – roughly equivalent to the entire population of Onslow County. Wake County’s growth was the 19th largest numeric growth nationally during this period. Half of this increase was attributed to net domestic migration (more people moving into the county from other states and counties than moving out). Wake County was ranked 10th in the nation in the number of net domestic migrants (at 97,063 net migrants). Mecklenburg County added a population equivalent to the size of Iredell County during this same period – adding 174,233 (ranked 21st in numeric growth nationally). 3 | Page
According to these estimates, 21 counties added at least 10,000 people from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018. Four counties added between 20,000 and 30,000 people, including: Buncombe (20,772), Forsyth (28,450), Brunswick (29,315), and New Hanover (29,591). Five counties added between 30,000 and 50,000 people, including: Cabarrus (33,255), Johnston (33,798), Union (34,574), Guilford (45,249), and Durham (46,740).
Between July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2018, 71 counties gained population, with the largest population growth occurring in: Wake (20,419), Mecklenburg (16,590), Johnston (6,252), and Brunswick (6,009) Counties. Avery County population did not change, while 28 counties lost population. Robeson County (-759), Edgecombe (-752), and Halifax (-708) Counties had the largest population losses during this period.
Forty-three counties lost population between April 1, 2010 (Census Day) and July 1, 2018, significantly more than the 6 counties that lost population between 2000 and 2010. Many of these counties are rural – with several located in the northeast portion of the state. According to these estimates, Edgecombe (-4,451) and Halifax (-4,053) Counties had the largest population decreases from 2010-2018.
Table 2. Population and Population Change for the Twenty Counties in North Carolina with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018 Change Change Population 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2018* County 2000 2010 2018 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent Wake 627,906 901,058 1,092,305 273,152 43.5 191,247 21.2 Mecklenburg 695,348 919,668 1,093,901 224,320 32.3 174,233 18.9 Durham 223,270 269,999 316,739 46,729 20.9 46,740 17.3 Guilford 420,848 488,421 533,670 67,573 16.1 45,249 9.3 Union 123,834 201,334 235,908 77,500 62.6 34,574 17.2 Johnston 121,998 168,877 202,675 46,879 38.4 33,798 20.0 Cabarrus 131,043 178,087 211,342 47,044 35.9 33,255 18.7 New Hanover 160,315 202,683 232,274 42,368 26.4 29,591 14.6 Brunswick 73,121 107,429 136,744 34,308 46.9 29,315 27.3 Forsyth 306,274 350,649 379,099 44,375 14.5 28,450 8.1 Buncombe 206,365 238,331 259,103 31,966 15.5 20,772 8.7 Onslow 150,418 177,799 197,683 27,381 18.2 19,884 11.2 Harnett 90,978 114,681 134,214 23,703 26.1 19,533 17.0 Iredell 122,631 159,451 178,435 36,820 30.0 18,984 11.9 Gaston 190,445 206,094 222,846 15,649 8.2 16,752 8.1 Alamance 130,750 151,160 166,436 20,410 15.6 15,276 10.1 Cumberland 302,978 319,433 332,330 16,455 5.4 12,897 4.0 Orange 115,589 133,702 146,027 18,113 15.7 12,325 9.2 Pitt 133,759 168,167 179,914 34,408 25.7 11,747 7.0 Moore 74,772 88,242 98,682 13,470 18.0 10,440 11.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018 and 2000-2010 Intercensal Estimates. 2000 and 2010 Estimates Base. *99 months change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.
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Population Size Twelve counties had populations of over 200,000 on July 1, 2018 (Table 3). There were 202,675 people living in Johnston County in 2018, up from 168,877 in 2010. If current rates of growth continue, Onslow County (at 197,683) is likely to surpass the 200,000 population threshold by 2020. The largest counties, both consisting of over one million people each, were Mecklenburg (1,093,901) and Wake (1,092,305) Counties.
Several suburban counties have experienced substantial growth since 2000 and, as a result, have moved up in the rankings of the largest counties in North Carolina. At 235,908 people, Union County is now the 8th largest county in North Carolina (up from 10th largest in 2010 and 18th largest in 2000). Johnston County is now the 12th largest county (up from 13th largest in 2010 and up from 21st in 2000). Iredell County moved from 16th in 2010 to 15th in 2018 (the county was ranked 20th in the state in 2000). Orange County is now the 19th largest county in North Carolina (up from 22nd largest in 2010).
Table 3. Population and Population Change for North Carolina and the Twenty Largest Counties in North Carolina in 2018 Change Change Population 2000 - 2010 2010 - 2018* County 2000 2010 2018 Numeric Percent Numeric Percent North Carolina 8,046,346 9,535,736 10,383,620 1,489,390 18.5 847,884 8.9 Mecklenburg 695,348 919,668 1,093,901 224,320 32.3 174,233 18.9 Wake 627,906 901,058 1,092,305 273,152 43.5 191,247 21.2 Guilford 420,848 488,421 533,670 67,573 16.1 45,249 9.3 Forsyth 306,274 350,649 379,099 44,375 14.5 28,450 8.1 Cumberland 302,978 319,433 332,330 16,455 5.4 12,897 4.0 Durham 223,270 269,999 316,739 46,729 20.9 46,740 17.3 Buncombe 206,365 238,331 259,103 31,966 15.5 20,772 8.7 Union 123,834 201,334 235,908 77,500 62.6 34,574 17.2 New Hanover 160,315 202,683 232,274 42,368 26.4 29,591 14.6 Gaston 190,445 206,094 222,846 15,649 8.2 16,752 8.1 Cabarrus 131,043 178,087 211,342 47,044 35.9 33,255 18.7 Johnston 121,998 168,877 202,675 46,879 38.4 33,798 20.0 Onslow 150,418 177,799 197,683 27,381 18.2 19,884 11.2 Pitt 133,759 168,167 179,914 34,408 25.7 11,747 7.0 Iredell 122,631 159,451 178,435 36,820 30.0 18,984 11.9 Davidson 147,248 162,841 166,614 15,593 10.6 3,773 2.3 Alamance 130,750 151,160 166,436 20,410 15.6 15,276 10.1 Catawba 141,700 154,753 158,652 13,053 9.2 3,899 2.5 Orange 115,589 133,702 146,027 18,113 15.7 12,325 9.2 Randolph 130,503 141,823 143,351 11,320 8.7 1,528 1.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018 and 2000-2010 Intercensal Estimates. 2000 and 2010 Estimates Base. *99 months change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.
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Components of Population Change This report provides a brief summary of the Census Bureau’s estimates of population change. The Census Bureau’s population estimates include estimates of the components of population change. These component estimates can be used to understand more completely change occurring in North Carolina counties. In brief, population grows as a result of two main components: natural increase (or decrease) and net migration. Natural increase (or decrease) is the number of births minus the number of deaths. If there are more births than deaths, then natural increase is occurring and natural decrease occurs when there are fewer births than deaths. Net migration refers to the number of people moving into a county (whether form other states, other counties with North Carolina, or from other countries) minus the number of people leaving a county. If there are more people moving into a county than are leaving, then the result is positive net migration. A county grows if the sum the two major components (natural increase [or decrease] and net migration) is a positive number. Figures 3 and 4 are maps of these two major components. Most counties in the piedmont urban crescent (including the Triangle, Triad and the Charlotte MSA) show both natural increase and positive net migration, resulting in substantion population growth. During this period, Brunswick County experienced tremendous population growth – but that growth was solely a result of positive net migration (primarily among the older population - which explains the natural decrease that occurred in this county between 2010 and 2018). Other retirement destination counties along the coast and in the mountains show this pattern as well. Cumberland and Onslow Counties, due to the presence of young military families, show the reverse pattern – natural increase but negative net migration (more people leaving these counties than moving in). Both of these counties grew during this period.
Summary tables for all North Carolina counties can be found at:
About These Estimates The Census Bureau develops county, metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area population estimates by measuring population change since the most recent census. The Census Bureau uses administrative records on births, deaths and migration to develop estimates of population. For more detail regarding the methodology, see
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Figure 3.
Figure 4.
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