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Final Draft for Public Review 8-27-21 with Appendices DRAFT FOR PUBLIC REVIEW – AUGUST 27, 2021 Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 4 Climate Change Background ........................................................................................................... 4 Basic Definitions: Weather, Climate, Climate Change, and Global Warming ........................................................ 4 Climate Change in the United States ........................................................................................................ 5 Climate Change in Pennsylvania ............................................................................................................... 6 Climate Change in Cumberland County .................................................................................................... 7 Agriculture ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Water Quality Issues ............................................................................................................................. 7 Tourism ................................................................................................................................................. 8 Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................ 8 Air Quality ............................................................................................................................................. 8 Human Health ....................................................................................................................................... 9 Plan Authority, Need and Scope ..................................................................................................... 9 Authority ................................................................................................................................................... 9 Plan Need .................................................................................................................................................. 9 Plan Scope ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Plan Integration....................................................................................................................................... 10 Planning Team ............................................................................................................................... 11 Planning Process ........................................................................................................................... 11 Greenhouse Gas Inventory ........................................................................................................... 13 Cumberland County’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions ....................................................................... 14 Future Scenarios of Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions ............................................................... 15 No Action Scenario .................................................................................................................................. 16 Emission Reduction Scenario .................................................................................................................. 16 Stakeholder Engagement .............................................................................................................. 19 Sector Focus Groups and Key Person Interviews .................................................................................... 19 Perspectives on Climate Change ............................................................................................................. 20 Climate Change Survey ........................................................................................................................... 20 Survey Participant Profile .................................................................................................................... 21 Climate Change Motivators and Barriers to Climate Change ............................................................. 25 Summary of Business Survey Responses ............................................................................................ 27 Open Ended Comments ...................................................................................................................... 28 Survey Themes .................................................................................................................................... 28 Implementation Plan .................................................................................................................... 30 Goal #1: Reduce transportation related greenhouse gas emissions. .................................................... 30 Transportation Policy Considerations ..................................................................................................... 31 2 Goal #2: Reduce solid waste disposal greenhouse gas emissions. ......................................................... 31 Waste Management Policy Considerations ............................................................................................ 31 Goal #3: Reduce GHG emissions related with energy production and usage. ....................................... 32 Energy Production and Usage Policy Considerations ............................................................................. 32 Goal #4: Manage land use to reduce GHG emissions and increase resilience. ...................................... 33 Land Use Policy Considerations .............................................................................................................. 34 Visualizing Change ........................................................................................................................ 35 Cross-Cutting Initiatives ................................................................................................................ 40 Public Education and Outreach ............................................................................................................... 40 Legislative Advocacy ............................................................................................................................... 40 Best Practice Sharing............................................................................................................................... 40 Equity and Environmental Justice ........................................................................................................... 41 Co-Benefits of Climate Action ....................................................................................................... 41 Plan Monitoring and Update ........................................................................................................ 42 Appendix A: Stakeholder Engagement Meeting Summaries ........................................................ 43 Appendix B: Survey Results ........................................................................................................... 44 3 Introduction Climate change is a pressing environmental challenge of the 21st century that can impact Cumberland County’s natural resources, economy, and residents’ physical health. Scientists expect that with the current trends in fossil fuel use, Americans may see more intense heat waves, droughts, rainstorms, floods, wildfires and landslides in the future. These impacts could drag down our economy, stress our natural resources and negatively impact the health of our residents. Action is required at all levels, and local governments have a unique role to play in building communities resilient to climate change impacts. In Pennsylvania, temperatures have increased by more than 1.8°F since the early 20th century and are expected to increase by an additional 5.4°F by 2050. Similarly, annual precipitation in Pennsylvania has increased by approximately 10% since the early 20th century and is expected to increase by another 8% by 2050, with a 14% increase during the winter season (Shortle et al. 2015). These impacts are caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the atmosphere, primarily resulting from burning fossil fuels and land use changes. Although the natural greenhouse effect is needed to keep the earth warm, a human enhanced greenhouse effect with the rapid accumulation of GHG in the atmosphere leads to too much heat and radiation being trapped. Carbon emissions from human activities have continued to rise in recent decades, reaching the highest rates in human history between 2000 and 2010 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014). About half of all carbon dioxide emitted between 1750 and 2010 occurred in the last 40 years. In Cumberland County, the sectors responsible for the most GHG emissions are transportation at 39%, residential energy at 22%, and commercial energy at 15%. Emissions are projected to continue to rise given Cumberland County’s rapid population growth and its geographic location that makes it a strategic hub in national and international highway transport. Given the challenges presented by climate change, now is the time to act to reduce GHG and address the impacts of climate change. In addition
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