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Global Handset Market Analysis and Forecast

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Global Handset Market Analysis and Forecast Global Handset Market Analysis and Forecast Korea Display Conference 2016 IHS Markit Technology Jusy Hong Principal Analyst Mobile & Telecom [email protected] © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2 Global Smartphone Market Saturation © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 3 Top 2 OEMs decelerates but China origin companies accelerates Smartphone market share by OEM Country share by OEM’s Origin 30% 100% Samsung Apple Huawei 90% 25% Oppo vivo 80% Xiaomi LG 70% Others 20% ZTE Lenovo/Moto India TCL-Alcatel 60% Gionee Japan MicroMax 15% 50% Taiwan Coolpad Sony China HTC 40% USA 10% Microsoft BlackBerry Korea 30% Others 20% 5% 10% 0% 0% Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(F) Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium – IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 4 More than half of top smartphone OEMs made negative YoY growth in the 1H Mil. units Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 1H(YoY) Samsung 81.2 73.0 84.0 82.0 79.4 77.5 2% Apple 61.2 47.5 48.0 74.8 51.2 40.4 -16% Huawei 17.5 30.6 27.4 33.4 28.4 33.3 28% Oppo 9.1 10.8 12.5 13.3 16.8 21.9 94% vivo 9.4 11.2 12.1 12.5 14.4 16.4 50% Xiaomi 14.8 19.7 18.5 20.2 14.8 15.2 -13% LG 15.4 14.2 14.9 15.3 13.5 13.9 -7% ZTE 12.9 15.1 15.6 15.4 11.9 13.7 -9% Lenovo/Moto 18.7 16.2 18.8 20.2 10.9 11.1 -37% TCL-Alcatel 9.1 10.1 10.2 12.1 7.8 7.4 -21% Gionee 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.9 5.6 6.2 28% MicroMax 4.3 5.7 6.4 4.4 4.7 5.1 -3% Others 74.4 79.8 63.9 58.9 60.6 66.0 -18% Sum 332.4 338.7 337.7 368.4 319.9 328.0 -3% Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium – IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 5 Huawei, Oppo and vivo revised up its smartphone shipment target while other OEMs revised down Mil. units As of Feb As of Apr As of Aug As of Oct Change(Feb-Oct) Samsung 320.0 318.0 316.0 316.0 -1% Apple 230.0 215.0 208.6 208.6 -9% Huawei 130.0 140.0 134.6 133.2 2% OPPO 54.0 75.0 88.7 93.5 73% Vivo 50.0 68.0 68.8 74.9 50% Xiaomi 85.0 70.0 63.5 58.1 -32% LG 63.0 59.0 57.9 55.9 -11% ZTE 59.0 56.0 57.4 53.3 -10% Lenovo/Moto 80.0 65.0 45.5 53.3 -33% TCL-Alcatel 48.0 40.0 32.7 36.3 -24% Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium – IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 6 Will 2016 be the first contraction year of the smartphone history? Mil. units Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16(E) Q4-16(E) 2016(E) YoY(2015) Samsung 79 77 77 82 316 -1.2% Apple 51 40 46 72 209 -9.9% Huawei 28 32 34 39 133 22.3% OPPO 17 22 27 28 94 104.6% Vivo 14 16 21 23 75 65.7% Xiaomi 15 15 13 15 58 -20.6% ZTE 12 15 14 15 56 -6.3% LG Electronics 14 14 14 14 53 -10.8% Lenovo 11 11 14 14 53 -27.9% TCL-Alcatel 8 7 9 12 36 -12.5% Gionee 6 6 8 9 29 39.7% Micromax 5 5 6 5 21 -0.8% Others 60 66 60 55 242 -12.6% Sum 320 328 342 383 1,372 -0.4% Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium – IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 7 The importance of Mid & Low- end smartphones © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 8 Emerging regions will account for almost 60% in 2020 in the global smartphone market Smartphone regional share forecast 100% Rest of APAC 90% 80% E. Europe + Africa + Middle East 70% L America 60% China 50% 40% Western Europe 30% N America 20% Emerging Regions 10% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium – IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 9 Top 20 models of global smartphone shipment in 1H Volume of premium model declined while that of cheaper model increased Model Name Company 2015 2015 No. of Vol. Ave. Model Name Company 2016 iPhone 6 Apple 65.4 Model (Mil.) (Mil.) iPhone 6S Apple 50.7 iPhone 6 Plus Apple 25.3 Samsung 12 103.5 8.6 iPhone 6S Plus Apple 16.4 Galaxy Grand Prime Samsung 15.6 Apple 3 102.9 34.3 Galaxy J5 Samsung 15.6 Galaxy S6 Edge Samsung 13.0 Huawei 1 4.5 4.5 Galaxy S7 Edge Samsung 13.5 iPhone 5S Apple 12.3 Xiaomi 4 26.7 6.7 Galaxy J7 Samsung 13.0 Galaxy Core Prime Samsung 10.7 Galaxy J2 Samsung 12.6 Galaxy S6 Samsung 10.1 Galaxy S7 Samsung 12.0 Mi 4 Xiaomi 9.3 Galaxy J1 ACE Samsung 11.0 Galaxy V Samsung 8.3 Galaxy Grand Prime Samsung 9.9 Galaxy S5 Samsung 8.2 iPhone 6 Apple 9.3 Redmi 2 Xiaomi 7.7 Galaxy J3 (2016) Samsung 9.1 Galaxy J1 Samsung 7.3 iPhone SE Apple 8.3 Galaxy A5 Samsung 7.0 Redmi Note 3 Xiaomi 7.9 Galaxy Grand Neo Samsung 6.0 2016 No. of Vol. Ave. Galaxy J1 (2016) Samsung 6.7 Galaxy Core 2 Duo Samsung 5.9 Model (Mil.) (Mil.) Redmi 3 Xiaomi 6.0 Galaxy Note 4 Samsung 5.9 Samsung 10 108.5 10.8 Honor 5X Huawei 6.0 Galaxy A3 Samsung 5.5 Apple 4 84.7 21.2 K7 LG 5.4 Redmi 2A Xiaomi 5.2 Huawei 3 16.0 5.3 Galaxy J1 Mini Samsung 5.1 Honor 4X Huawei 4.5 Xiaomi 2 13.8 6.9 Ascend P8 Lite Huawei 5.0 Redmi Note 4G Xiaomi 4.5 LG 1 5.4 5.4 Ascend Mate 8 Huawei 5.0 - Based on model shipment data of Apple, Blackberry, Huawei, HTC, Lenovo, LG, Motorola, Samsung, Sony, TCL, Xiaomi and ZTE © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 10 What is Smartphone Active Installed Data • Smartphone model information which is currently in use. • Collecting 4 billion data points each month. • Covering 80 different countries in the world. • Smartphone model based foundation, which brings various data points. > Smartphone model; top 20 models by country; top 400 models by OEM by country > OEM – complete brand coverage; > Display: Screen size; PPI; Resolution; > Fingerprint sensor; Barometer; NFC; Gyroscope; > Audio codecs; Video codecs; > RAM; Storage; SD card slot; > Dual/Single/Triple SIM; SIM type; > IP Rating; Battery capacity; > Rear camera MP; OIS; Front camera MP; > Application processor; SoC designer; SoC model; GPU designer; GPU model > Location: Beidou; Glosnass; GPS; Gallileo; > Air interface; Network type; • Monthly based data frequency with quarterly update (scheduled to change to monthly update soon) © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 11 Rising dual SIM smartphone adoption demonstrates the importance of direct to consumer sales Dual-sim smartphone share in active installed base 45% 40% 35% Africa 30% Asia Pacific 25% South & Central America 20% Central & Eastern Europe Middle East 15% Western Europe 10% North America 5% 0% Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium – Active installed base – IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 12 Prepaid subscription is popular in emerging regions Prepaid subscription share by country in 2016 China W. Europe US Korea India South Africa Egypt Russia Argentina Brazil 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Mobile Media Intelligence, IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 13 Decreasing is an obvious trend but the speed can be slower than forecast Global handset market forecast 2,000 Feature Phone 1,800 Smart Phone 16% 19% 1,600 25% 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Million Million units 600 400 200 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Mobile Media Intelligence, IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 14 Still more than 30% of handset users will use feature phone in emerging region in 2018 Smartphone penetration in handset subscription 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Africa & Middle Asia Pacific Central & Latin America North America Western Europe East Eastern Europe Source: Mobile Media Intelligence, IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 15 Strength of feature phone is cheap price Design Resolution Bar: 94% 240x320: 35% Flip: 5% 128x160: 30% Display Camera <2”: 43% <3 MP: 66% 2.0-2.9”: 36% 3-7 MP: 20% $10-40 Image source: gift-10.com.hk Number of feature phone models selling on Alibaba website (Oct’16) © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 16 Emerging market is different from advanced market © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 17 Local leaders are prevalent across South East Asia in particular, but do appear in more developed markets too Local Kings: Brands that are in the top 3 in only one country Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium – IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 18 Both Chinese & local smartphone brands are growing, but there are large difference between countries Smartphone shipments by type of brand, by country, 2015 100% 90% Other 80% 70% Local brands 60% 50% Chinese brands 40% 30% Apple 20% 10% Samsung 0% India Indonesia United States Norway Source: Smartphone intelligence Premium – IHS Markit © 2016 IHS Markit.
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