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Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) BUY at the Heartland of the Matter Share Price SGD 0.93 12M Price Target SGD 1.20 (+29%)

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Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) BUY at the Heartland of the Matter Share Price SGD 0.93 12M Price Target SGD 1.20 (+29%) April 2, 2018 Sheng Siong Group (SSG SP) BUY At the Heartland of the Matter Share Price SGD 0.93 12m Price Target SGD 1.20 (+29%) Company Description Not just resilient, winning market share; BUY Excessive concerns about e-commerce disruptions led to SSG’s 12-month Mass-market supermarket operator. Third largest in underperformance of 10% against the STI, despite its results resilience. Singapore by market share. SSG continues to offer grocery-shopping convenience, focusing on fresh foods in densely-populated HDB estates, where more than 80% of Singapore’s residents reside. We resume coverage with a BUY rating, expecting catalysts from: 1) further improvements in consumer spending; Statistics 2) SSG’s further market-share wins from convenience stores and 52w high/low (SGD) 1.01/0.91 traditional market grocers; 3) a potential surge in new stores in 2018; and 3m avg turnover (USDm) 1.1 4) continued good sets of results, supporting high ROEs and dividends. Our Free float (%) 34.4 DCF TP is SGD1.20 (7.7% WACC, 1.5% LTG). Key risks include landlords Issued shares (m) 1,504 taking back their rental space and fiercer-than-expected competition. Consumer Staples Market capitalisation SGD1.4B Strong turn in consumer spending USD1.1B Major shareholders: Supermarkets continue to claw market share in Singapore, from Sheng Siong Holdings Pte Ltd. 29.8% convenience stores and traditional market grocers. Despite the increasing Lim Hock Chee 11.3% popularity of online grocery shopping, they continued to book sales Lim Hock Eng 11.3% growth in 2017. A Jan 2018 Euromonitor study attributed this to online grocers’ more premium target markets and the price sensitivity of most Price Performance mass-market shoppers, who would rather shop and carry than shop online 1.15 155 and pay for delivery. Singapore’s supermarket retail sales index also turned around in 2017, to +3.7% from -0.1% in 2016, from better economy. 1.10 145 1.05 135 Singapore Along with this, SSG’s SSSG improved to 2.1% in 2017 from 0.2% in 2016. We model 2% SSSG for 2018E, to be led by GDP, wage and job growth. 1.00 125 Potential surge in new stores 0.95 115 Crucial to SSG’s continued EPS growth is the opening of new stores. New 0.90 105 openings are dependent on the availability of HDB sites for bidding, since 0.85 95 SSG locates most of its stores in HDB estates. Reduced competition from 0.80 85 smaller supermarket players after a round of slugfests in Dec 2016 has Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 freed up new shop space in recent bidding. The HDB is also nearly Sheng Siong Group - (LHS, SGD) Sheng Siong Group / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %) completing several new housing projects, after three years of construction. Sites for bidding have more than doubled to an estimated 20 -1M -3M -12M from three years ago. Although SSG closed two of its largest stores in FY17 Absolute (%) (1) 1 (2) due to land redevelopment, it also secured nine more new stores, ahead of the closures. We expect 4% YoY revenue growth for FY18E. Relative to index (%) 2 (0) (10) Source: FactSet China also not fully priced in SSG trades at 19x FY18E EPS or 1SD below its 5-year mean and a 41% discount to regional peers. We think its future EPS growth, consistently high ROEs and yields have not been priced in. We have also not included potential contributions from its new store in China, opened in 4Q17. FYE Dec (SGD m) FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenue 797 830 862 910 960 EBITDA 90 97 103 110 116 Core net profit 63 67 72 77 82 Core EPS (cts) 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.5 Core EPS growth (%) 10.4 7.4 7.5 6.8 6.7 Net DPS (cts) 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 Core P/E (x) 22.3 20.8 19.3 18.1 17.0 P/BV (x) 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.1 Net dividend yield (%) 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1 ROAE (%) 25.3 26.6 25.7 25.4 25.1 ROAA (%) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.4 17.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.1 13.6 12.7 11.7 10.8 Net gearing (%) (incl perps) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Consensus net profit - - 72 74 80 MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - 1.1 4.4 3.5 John Cheong, CFA [email protected] (65) 6231 5845 THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 SEE PAGE 28 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Sheng Siong Group Table of Contents 1. Investment Summary ................................................................................................................ 3 2. Focus Charts .......................................................................................................................... 4 3. Turnaround In Consumer Spending ................................................................................................ 5 4. Bigger Pipeline of New Stores ...................................................................................................... 12 5. Financial Analysis .................................................................................................................... 14 6. Valuation & TP ........................................................................................................................ 18 7. Risks .................................................................................................................................... 20 Appendix 1: Outlets & Revenue Contributions ........................................................................................ 22 Appendix 2: Recovery In Retail Sales Index ............................................................................................ 23 April 2, 2018 2 Sheng Siong Group 1. Investment Summary A name that stands for low overheads and great value in grocery shopping, SSG is the third-largest and only listed pure supermarket operator in Singapore. At our latest count, it operated 48 stores for a 19% market share by sales. A steady consumer-staple stock, we believe SSG should be a long-term core holding in any consumer portfolio. Near-term, we see catalysts from faster-than-expected new-store opening, which could lead to earnings surprises. Turnaround in consumer spending Singapore’s supermarkets continue to claw market share from convenience stores and traditional market grocers. This is being led by their good accessibility and wider variety of cheaper goods, especially after many outlets started 24 hours operations in densely-populated estates. Along with improved consumer sentiment as the economy chugs along, supermarket sales grew 3% in 2017, up from 2% in 2016. The supermarket & hypermarket retail sales index improved to +3.7% in 2017 from -0.1% in 2016. SSG was not left out, with its SSSG rising to 2.1% in 2017 from 0.2% in 2016. We see GDP, employment and wage growth supporting further consumer spending this year and next. Ample new sites for new stores Crucial to SSG’s revenue and earnings growth is the opening of new stores. There were fewer than 10 sites available for bidding p.a. in the last three years as many HDB new projects were still under construction. Come this year, available HDB sites for bidding are expected to more than double to 20, as the construction of the new projects approaches completion. We expect SSG to be successful in bidding for three sites of 5k sf each. Although it closed two of its largest stores in FY17, it managed to secure more space ahead of their closures. As of 1Q18, it had rolled out 32.1k sf of new space. This forms 68% of our target of 47.1k sf for 2018E. For 2019- 2020, it aims to open five new stores p.a., with combined floor space of 25k sf. We model 4-6% revenue growth for FY18-20E, on par with FY15- 17’s 4-5%, mainly led by new stores. China’s contributions not priced in SSG trades at 19x FY18E P/E and 13x FY18E EV/EBITDA. We believe the market has not priced in potential contributions from its new store in China, which started operations in 4Q17. Relative to ASEAN supermarket operators and food retailers that trade at 32x/28x FY18E/19E P/E averages, SSG does not appear overvalued. While these peers operate in bigger consumer countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, it offers higher net margins and dividend yield of 3.6%. We believe it should be a long-term core holding of consumer portfolios. Our DCF TP of SG1.20 implies 25x FY18E P/E and 17x EV/EBITDA. April 2, 2018 3 Sheng Siong Group 2. Focus Charts Fig 1: Supermarkets have been eating the market share of Fig 2: SSG and NTUC FairPrice have been the gainers, at the convenience stores and traditional grocers expense of Dairy Farm and other smaller players Convenience Stores Hypermarkets Sheng Siong Group (mkt sh) 60% Supermarkets Traditional Grocery Retailers (%) NTUC FairPrice Co-operative Dairy Farm International Holdings 52.0% 52.1% 51.3% 51.9% 52.7% 50.4% Others 56.0 60 53.6 54.9 50% 50.8 51.9 52.7 50 Supermarkets gained market share since 2016, at the expense of other grocery retailers 40% 31.4% 31.1% 31.0% 40 29.4% 29.0% 28.4% Sheng Siong and NTUC are gaining market share, from Dairy Farm and other players 30% 30 23.9 23.8 23.2 22.1 20.7 19.5 20% 11.4% 11.5% 11.6% 20 9.4% 8.2% 8.5% 18.5 18.9 10% 10 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 7.4% 7.3% 8.4 7.0 6.3 6.2 6.1 0% 7.1% 6.7% 6.4% 6.0% 0 5.7 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Euromonitor, Maybank Kim Eng Source: Euromonitor, Maybank Kim Eng Fig 3: New stores typically lift SSSG, revenue and EPS Fig 4: Margin improvements from more fresh products and better efficiency after the introduction of a centralised (SGD m) warehouse 1,000 Gross margin (LHS) (%) (%) 960 EBIT margin (RHS) 950 17 26.5 Net margin (RHS) 12.0 910 32 900 16 862 32 26.0 10.0 8.6
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