Means of Transportation Choice for the Residents of Villavicencio, Colombia: a Quantitative Analysis
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This is the version of the article accepted for publication in Transport Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour Vol. 44, 134-144. Published online 2 December 2016, available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2016.11.001 Accepted version made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 License from SOAS Research Online: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/23435/ Means of transportation choice for the residents of Villavicencio, Colombia: a quantitative analysis Andres Romero Parra Luca Tasciotti Fayber Acosta Abstract This study describes the decision making process used by the residents of Villavicencio – department of Meta, central Colombia- to choose among different means of transport for their daily needs. This study constitutes an attempt to bring the attention to the traffic problem in Villavicencio, where the increase in the use of cars and motorcycles in the last decade has been exponential, with the result of generating a number of unresolved challenges -road accidents, traffic congestion, pollution and occupation of public space. This study uses data from the survey ‘Encuesta domiciliaria origen-destino’ conducted in the municipality of Villavicencio in 2008 and applies a multinomial logit model to establish the probability of choosing the mean of transport conditioned on a number of controls related to the individuals’ socioeconomic characteristics, to the location of the work and that of the dwelling. The results of both the descriptive statistics and the econometric model show that the variables related to the age of the resident, his/her socioeconomic level, time and cost of the journey are among the variables which mostly influence the resident decisions when choosing the mean of transport. In view of the constant increase in the traffic congestion and road related accidents recorded in the last decade in the area, the priority of the both the central and local Government should be the improvement of the public transport service –which is almost absent- and the creation of a safer environment to allow residents to cycle and to walk without impending danger. Keywords: 1 This is the version of the article accepted for publication in Transport Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour Vol. 44, 134-144. Published online 2 December 2016, available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2016.11.001 Accepted version made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 License from SOAS Research Online: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/23435/ Introduction The statistics provided by the Department of Mobility suggest that in 2008 there were 61,279 vehicles daily circulating through the streets of Villavicencio, a city of approximately 387 thousand people and located right in the center of Colombia. Out of all the vehicles passing by the city streets, 52,735 vehicles belong to private citizens, 7,720 to the public service, 755 are official vehicles and the remaining, 69, are of unknown origin.1 According to the Ministry of Transport, from 2006 to 2009 the department of Meta presented an average annual increase of 48% of the registered vehicles and from 2009 to 2013 the number of vehicles in Villavicencio has increased by 19,375. This last increase is explained by a rise of 85% in the number of motorcycles. This situation resulted in increased road accidents, traffic congestion, environmental pollution and increased competition for public space among pedestrians, cyclists, drivers and passengers (Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2013). The National Route 65, which passes through the city of Villavicencio, represents the road connecting the main oil production sites with the rest of the country. A number of heavy motorized vehicles, mainly trucks, day in and day out pass through the city to transport the hydrocarbons from the departments of the Llanos Orientales -Arauca, Casanare and Meta- where the oil is extracted to the departments of Meta and Putumayo where the refineries are located (Tasciotti et al., 2015). The discovery of oil wells in those three departments has resulted in an increase in the traffic congestion related problems, higher rate of road accidents, proliferation of parking areas in spaces otherwise destined to parks and in an increase of the barrier effect2. The constant expansion of the road infrastructures, theoretically created ad-hoc in order to reduce the traffic congestion and to accommodate the increasing number of vehicles, does not always represents the best option due to the process of suburbanization which causes 1For more information please refer to the following website: http://www.villavicencio.gov.co/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5487:61279-vehiculos-es-el- parque-automotor-activo-de-villavicencio&catid=6:noticias-destacadas 2 According to Stanley and Rattray (1978) the barrier effect -also referred to as severance- indicates the delays, the discomfort and the lack of access that road traffic imposes on non-motorized people as pedestrians and cyclists. 2 This is the version of the article accepted for publication in Transport Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour Vol. 44, 134-144. Published online 2 December 2016, available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2016.11.001 Accepted version made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 License from SOAS Research Online: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/23435/ inefficiency in the delivery of public services (García Lopez, 2012). In addition, the improvements in the road infrastructures may generate the growth of the motorization level in the medium and long term and the return to the initial condition of traffic congestion. Furthermore, according to Vasconcellos (1999), all those roads’ interventions have been made without taking into consideration other factors –e.g. the needs the pedestrians and the cyclists have as well as the role that environmental aspects may play- and they have increased the inequality in the use of public space and have produced exclusive urban environments.3 On the other hand, improvements in the systems of public transport, of the cycling and walking paths constitute a more consistent and efficient option even in view of the goals expressed by the Colombian State Law 1083, 2006, in relation to a more sustainable and cleaner mobility4. This study represents a first step in understanding how individuals choose the transport mode in the area of urban Villavicencio and helps determining the link between the mean of transport chosen for everyday travel with the socioeconomic characteristics of the residents and the distance between residential areas and work areas. Understanding the determinants of the demand for transport is an important tool when there is the need of reducing traffic congestion and of strengthening the public transport in and around the city; furthermore it can help reducing the spillover effects related to the traffic congestion and it represents a valid tool that can be used by policy makers and Government representatives to propose and implement changes. This study is organized as follows. Section 2 proposes a review of the existing literature on the demand for transport services and of the application of probabilistic models –e.g. the multinomial logit models- to explain the process of choosing the mean of transport for everyday travels. Section 3 illustrates the sources and the main features of the data used. Section 4 proposes some descriptive statistics; the results of the empirical analysis are presented in Section 5. Section 6 highlights the main implications of the results and Section 7 concludes. 3 Even though it refers to a different topic, the study made by Pellegrini and Tasciotti (2013) on the challenges faced by developing countries when trying to electrify the country highlights the fact that any attempt to improve the status quo never constitutes a smooth process and it has to be accompanied by a comprehensive portfolio of policies. 4 Article 1 of the cited law says that ‘[…] all the municipalities and the districts should give priority to alternative modes of transport –e.g. use of bikes and other non-polluting vehicle […]’. 3 This is the version of the article accepted for publication in Transport Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour Vol. 44, 134-144. Published online 2 December 2016, available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2016.11.001 Accepted version made available under CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 License from SOAS Research Online: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/23435/ Review of literature on transport modal choice The municipality of Villavicencio has experienced a significant population growth in the last 30 years; according to the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), the number of people living in the urban area of Villavicencio grew from about 200 thousand to mid-1980 to 387 thousand in 20085. This growth has been explained by the net migration process as a result of the local economy’s growth and by the forced displacement as a consequence of the violence in rural areas (García Flórez, 2013). In addition to the increase in the population, which undoubtedly played a role in explaining the rise of traffic congestion problems, the choice of Villavicencio inhabitants of using motorized means of transport –e.g. cars and motorcycles- for their daily travel have exacerbated the traffic congestion problem, with consequences ranging from air pollution, inequality in the use of public space, higher rate of traffic accidents, presence of barrier effect and an increase in the demand of public and private resources to mitigate those problems (Acevedo et al, 2009). Due to