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JYP Ent.(035900.KQ) JYP Ent. (035900.KQ) 니쥬로 확인된 육성 시스템 수출 역량 Company Note │ 2020. 1.8 신인 니쥬의 데뷔 앨범 판매량은 트와이스 일본 진출 시점 대비 120%에 ※ESG Index/Event는 3페이지 참조 달함. 이를 반영하여 2021F 실적 추정치를 상향하고, 동사 아티스트 육성 시스템 수출 역량을 고려 목표주가를 46,000원, 투자의견을 Buy로 상향함 Buy (상향) 목표주가 46,000원 (상향) 현재가 (20/01/07) 36,650원 K-POP 육성 시스템의 글로벌 수출 업종 엔터테인먼트 KOSPI / KOSDAQ 3,031.68 / 988.86 JYP Ent.에 대한 목표주가를 46,000원으로 상향. 1)니쥬의 가파른 성장세 시가총액(보통주) 1,301.0십억원 를 반영한 실적 추정치 상향 및 2)아티스트 육성 시스템 수출 역량을 고려 발행주식수(보통주) 35.5백만주 52주 최고가 ('20/12/3) 43,250원 한 Target PER 35배(기존 30배) 상향에 의함 최저가 ('20/3/23) 15,350원 투자의견도 Buy로 상향. 니쥬로 증명한 ‘아티스트 육성 시스템 수출 역량’ 평균거래대금(60일) 33.5십억원 배당수익률(2020E) 0.32% 이 중장기적 모멘텀으로 작용할 것. 현지에서 선발된 연습생을 동사 육성 외국인지분율 21.7% 시스템을 통해 트레이닝한 후, 현지화된 콘텐츠를 적용해 흥행시키는 사례 주요주주 가 반복될 수 있기 때문. 다음 타자는 하반기 데뷔할 중국 보이 그룹 박진영 외 3 인 18.3% 국민연금공단 5.0% 주가상승률 3개월 6개월 12개월 예상을 뛰어넘는 니쥬의 성장, 2021년 유의미한 실적 기여 기대 절대수익률 (%) -0.4 46.9 57.6 상대수익률 (%p) -12.4 12.8 5.8 트와이스가 일본에 본격 데뷔한 2018년 트와이스는 일본향으로 싱글 2개 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F (1,300엔/장), 정규 1개(3,240엔/장)를 발매. 초동 기준 싱글은 평균 26만 매출액 155.4 146.5 170.0 198.9 장, 정규 18만장 판매되었고, 하반기 아레나 투어를 진행. 해당연도 동사의 증감률 24.5 -5.8 16.0 17.0 영업이익 증분(100억원 y-y)의 경우 트와이스 일본 매출 기여도가 높았음 영업이익 43.5 46.7 62.0 69.2 증감률 51.6 7.4 32.7 11.6 구글 트렌드 기준 현시점 니쥬의 화제성은 트와이스의 일본 진출 시점과 영업이익률 28.0 31.9 36.5 34.8 유사. 니쥬의 첫 싱글(1,600엔/장) 초동 판매량은 31만장으로, 트와이스의 (지배지분)순이익 31.3 33.2 46.6 52.2 EPS 883 937 1,312 1,472 첫 싱글 판매량 대비 120%. 만일 2021년 니쥬의 콘서트 투어가 불가능하 증감률 28.9 6.1 40.1 12.2 더라도, 2018년 트와이스 수준(싱글 2개, 정규 1개)으로 활동을 하는 경우 PER 27.4 41.0 27.9 24.9 니쥬 관련 앨범 및 MD를 통해 100억원대의 영업이익을 기대 가능함 PBR 5.4 7.2 5.6 4.7 EV/EBITDA 16.2 25.2 17.9 15.5 ROE 21.9 19.2 22.2 20.5 4Q Preview: 국내 라인업 총 출동 + 니쥬 MD 매출 부채비율 28.0 23.1 18.8 15.8 순차입금 -97.3 -128.2 -169.7 -216.4 동사 4분기 매출 438억원(-1% y-y), 영업이익 131억원(-3% y-y)으로 컨 단위: 십억원, %, 원, 배 센서스 부합할 것. 코로나19로 인한 콘서트 부재 영향은 불가피하나, 주요 주: EPS, PER, PBR, ROE는 지배지분 기준 아티스트 앨범 발매 효과가 모두 반영될 것으로 보이기 때문. 니쥬 수익은 자료: NH투자증권 리서치본부 전망 일부 MD를 제외하면 2021년 상반기 중 반영될 것으로 예상 JYP Ent. 4분기 실적 Preview (K-IFRS 연결) (단위: 십억원, %) 4Q20E 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 1Q21F 예상치 y-y q-q 기존추정 컨센서스 매출액 44.3 34.0 34.1 34.6 43.8 -1.2 26.6 40.8 40.1 32.6 영업이익 13.5 13.4 9.1 11.1 13.1 -3.1 17.5 9.9 12.1 12.2 영업이익률 30.4 39.6 26.5 32.2 29.9 24.3 30.0 37.3 세전이익 12.8 14.2 7.9 9.9 12.8 -0.1 29.1 9.9 11.7 12.9 Analyst 이화정 02)768-7535, [email protected] (지배)순이익 6.3 11.3 4.7 7.7 9.5 50.4 23.7 6.3 8.3 9.7 주: IFRS 연결기준, 자료: JYP Ent., FnGuide, NH투자증권 리서치본부 전망 JYP Ent. www.nhqv.com Summary JYP Ent.는 1996년 설립된 엔터테인먼트 기업. 2013년 JYP(소멸법인)가 코스닥 상장사 제이튠엔터테인먼트(존속법인)와 합병하며 상장. 음반을 기획 및 제작, 유통하는 음반 및 매니지먼트 사업을 영위. 주요 아티스트로는 NiziU, TWICE, ITZY, 갓세븐, 스트레이키즈 등. 중국(보이스토리, Project C)에서 현지화 아이돌 육성 중. 2019년 연결 매출 비중은 음 반 23%, 음원 14%, 콘서트 및 출연 22%, 광고 11%, 굿즈 외 30% Share price drivers/Earnings Momentum Downside Risk 코로나19 사태 완화로 글로벌 콘서트 투어 재개 코로나19 사태 장기화로 인한 오프라인 활동 차질 지속 중국, 일본과의 관계 완화를 통한 실적 안정화 일본 입국제한조치 및 중국 한한령 지속 저연차 아티스트의 매출 기여도 확대 저연차 아티스트의 성장 지연 Cross valuations (단위: 배, %) Historical valuations (단위: 배, %) PER PBR ROE Company Valuations 2018 2019 2020E 2021F 2022F 2020E 2021F 2020E 2021F 2020E 2021F 빅히트 53.8 31.4 6.4 5.3 11.9 16.8 PER 44.2 27.4 41.0 27.9 24.9 에스엠 - 26.9 1.7 1.6 -2.5 5.8 PBR 8.4 5.4 7.2 5.6 4.7 와이지엔터테인먼트 100.2 28.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 7.3 PSR 8.4 5.5 9.3 7.7 6.5 iQIYI - - 24.3 47.9 -197.7 -252.2 ROE 22.5 21.9 19.2 22.2 20.5 스튜디오드래곤 64.1 48.6 6.1 5.5 9.6 11.3 ROIC 49.3 59.6 78.4 106.5 123.1 자료: FactSet, NH투자증권 리서치본부 자료: NH투자증권 리서치본부 Historical Key financials (단위: 십억원, %) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 매출액 10 15 21 48 51 74 102 125 155 영업이익 -2 -7 -3 8 4 14 19 29 43 영업이익률(%) -15.3 -43.3 -12.0 17.0 8.3 18.8 19.0 23.0 28.0 세전이익 -3 -10 -4 8 4 13 21 30 43 순이익 -3 -10 -4 8 3 9 16 24 31 지배지분순이익 -3 -9 -4 8 3 8 16 24 31 EBITDA -1 -6 -2 9 7 16 22 30 47 CAPEX 2 1 0 0 0 0 25 13 2 Free Cash Flow -3 -8 -3 8 5 15 2 10 49 EPS(원) -111 -399 -140 226 94 246 471 685 883 BPS(원) 720 581 1,363 1,633 1,715 1,952 2,452 3,587 4,477 DPS(원) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 122 155 순차입금 -11 -9 -13 -17 -17 -31 -40 -61 -97 ROE(%) -30.8 -60.2 -12.3 15.1 5.6 13.4 21.4 22.5 21.9 ROIC(%) -168.9 -241.5 -15.1 24.5 10.1 28.3 34.5 49.3 59.6 배당성향(%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.9 16.4 배당수익률(%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 순차입금 비율(%) -66.9 -67.3 -28.9 -30.8 -29.6 -46.0 -46.1 -47.6 -59.9 자료: JYP Ent., NH투자증권 리서치본부 2 JYP Ent. www.nhqv.com ESG Index & Event 본 ESG 분석부분은 유료 리서치 서비스 계약을 통해 제공될 예정으로 전체 내용이 공개되지 않음을 알려드립니다. 당사 고객은 홈페이지(www.nhqv.com)에서 본 조사분석자료의 전체 내용을 열람하실 수 있습니다. 3 JYP Ent. www.nhqv.com K-POP 시스템의 글로벌 수출 첫 사례: 니쥬 목표주가 JYP Ent.에 대한 목표주가를 46,000원(기존 22,000원)으로 상향한다. 동사의 육성 46,000원 상향 역량을 활용한 전원 일본인 걸그룹 니쥬의 가파른 성장세를 반영, 실적 추정치 및 Target PER 양쪽을 상향했다. 또한 직전 목표주가 산정 시 반영했던 주당 가치 할인 (코로나19로 확대된 금융시장 불확실성 관련 25%)을 제거했다. 1)2021F 실적 추정치 상향: 신인 걸그룹 니쥬의 일본 내 성장세가 가파르다. 트와이 스의 일본 진출 시점 대비 약 120%의 성과를 거두고 있다. 트와이스가 일본으로 진 출했던 시점(2018년, 5년차) 대비 공연 가능한 곡 수가 부족한데다 코로나19 안정화 를 통한 콘서트 재개 시점 불확실함을 고려할 때 돔투어는 2022년 이후 가능할 것으 로 판단되는 만큼, 2021년 하반기 쇼케이스 정도만을 가정하였다. 그럼에도 앨범 판 매량에서 드러나는 팬덤 규모를 고려할 때, 2021년 3번의 컴백(2개 싱글: 판매량 130만장, 1개 정규: 판매량 60만장)을 가정 시 앨범 및 팝업스토어 MD 판매, 팬클럽 가입 매출 만으로도 100억원 수준의 영업이익 기여가 가능할 것으로 본다. 2)아티스트 육성 시스템 수출의 시작: 니쥬는 동사 K-POP 아티스트 육성 역량 글로 벌 수출의 첫 사례이다. 그 외 한류 시장(중국, 동남아)에서도 유사한 성공 사례가 반 복될 가능성 높음을 고려하여, 과거 3개년 3대 기획사 12MF PER 30배 대비 약 20%의 프리미엄을 부여한 35배를 Target PER로 부여했다. 투자의견 투자의견도 Buy로 상향한다. 니쥬로 증명한 ‘아티스트 육성 시스템 수출 역량’이 중 Buy 상향 장기적 모멘텀으로 작용할 것으로 보이기 때문이다. 현지에서 선발된 연습생을 동사 가 보유한 K-POP 육성 시스템을 적용해 트레이닝한 후, 현지화된 콘텐츠를 적용해 현지에서 흥행에 성공시키는 사례가 시스템화되어 반복될 수 있을 것으로 보인다. 니 쥬의 다음 타자는 중국 보이 그룹 ‘프로젝트C’다. 표1. JYP Ent. Target PER Valuation (단위: 십억원, 배, 원, 주) 2021F Multiple (x) Value Note 지배주주순이익 46.6 PER 35.0 1,630.4 과거 3 개년 3 대 기획사 12MF PER 평균(30 배) 대비 프리미엄을 부여 총 기업가치 1,630.4 적정 주당 주주가치 45,931 목표주가 46,000 Upside 25.5% 총 주식수 35,497,492 주: 프리미엄 근거는 아티스트 육성 시스템의 글로벌 수출(ex.니쥬) 역량 자료: NH투자증권 리서치본부 4 JYP Ent. www.nhqv.com 2021년 추정치 변경 당사 기존 추정 시, 니쥬가 손익분기점을 넘어 유의미하게 수익에 기여하는 시점을 : 니쥬의 빠른 수익화 2022년으로 잡았다. 그러나 최근 증명된 니쥬의 가파른 성장세를 반영(트와이스 일 본 진출 시점 대비 약 120%)하여 실적 반영 시점을 2021년으로 앞당겼다.
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