Wednesday, November 2, 2011 OUTLOOK ¬¬¬ HOUSTON CHRONICLE B7 It’s not too late for U.S. to play ‘The Great Game’

THOMAS FRIEDMAN doubts that Iran is the big winner in Iraq and offers some strategic moves that may be game-changers in Afghanistan

GRA, India — Last week, I Iraq. toured the great Mogul com- Iraqis are a proud people. Once our pound of Fatehpur Sikri, near troops are gone, Iraqi Arabs will surely Athe Taj Mahal. My Indian focus entirely on their own government’s guide mentioned in passing performance and on any Iranian or other that in the late 1500s, when Afghanistan attempts to try to be the puppeteer of Iraqi was part of India and the Mogul Empire, politics. Any Iraqi leader seen as Tehran’s the Iranian Persians invaded Afghanistan lackey will have problems. in an effort to “seize the towns of Herat I actually think the dominant flow and Kandahar” and a great battle ensued. I of influence will be from Iraq toward had to laugh to myself: “Well, add them to Iran — if (and it is still a big if) — Iraq’s the long list of suckers — countries certain democracy holds. If it does, Iranians will that controlling Afghanistan’s destiny was have to look across the border every day vital to their national security.” at Iraqis, with their dozens of free news- There were already plenty before and papers and freedom to form any party and there have been even more since. As vote for any leader, and wonder why these America now debates how to extract itself “inferior” Iraqi Arab Shiites enjoy such Silenced Mexican press from Iraq and Afghanistan, it is worth re- freedoms and “superior” Iranian Persian reading a little Central Asian history and Shiites do not. recalling how many centuries great pow- Some say Iran was the geopolitical ers — from India to Persia, from Britain winner of the U.S. intervention in Iraq. works to cartels’ benefi t to Russia, and now from America to Iran, I’d hold off on that judgment, too. “The Turkey and Pakistan — have wrestled for Iranian regime is at its lowest moment of supremacy in this region, in different ver- influence in the region — 14 percent popu- • Gangs can operate two people indicate a marked turn for the sions of what came to be called “The Great larity in the latest Zogby poll,” remarked worse: Organized crime has not only been Game.” One can only weep at the thought Abbas Milani, who teaches Iranian politics freely without scrutiny able to identify bloggers and exact retribu- of how much blood and treasure have been at Stanford. tion, but it is using the most gruesome of expended in this pursuit and how utterly Just as I don’t buy the notion that we torture. ungreat this game has been in retrospect. need to keep playing The Great Game in By JOAN NEUHAUS SCHAAN If social media is blocked, the last It is with this bias that I look at the de- Iraq, I also don’t buy it for Afghanistan. OW will we know that Mexico line of defense is the tip line. Sugges- bate following President Barack Obama’s “If the U.S. steps back, it will see that has fallen to organized crime? tions to establish tip lines (http://www. decision to withdraw all U.S. forces from it has a lot more options,” argues C. Raja There will be silence. bakerinstitute.org/publications/SEC-pub- Iraq, on schedule, at the end of this year Mohan, a senior fellow at the Center for H While the extortion and ChronNeuhausSchaanTipline-051009. — a decision that has been greeted with Policy Research, in New Delhi. “You let killing of teachers in Acapulco pdf) several years ago resulted in the es- much huffing and puffing from hawkish the contending regional forces play out and the rise of vigilantes nationwide point tablishment of Crime Stoppers in Mexico, Republicans about how Obama will be re- against each other and then you can then to further degradation of the quality of life and numerous successes can be attributed membered for losing Iraq to Iran. Iraq will tilt the balance.” He is referring to the for the average Mexican, citizens continue to tip lines. Great pains were taken to have now fall under Iran’s “influence,” they India, Pakistan, Russia, Iran, China and to fight to protect themselves, and at least the tipsters’ identities shielded. One can proclaim, and none of us will ever be able Northern Alliance tribes in Afghanistan. their story is being told — for now. only hope the integrity of this reporting to sleep well again. “At this point, you have the opposite prob- Five years ago, the nonprofit Report- system remains secure. Please put me down in the camp that lem. You are sitting in the middle and are ers Without Borders listed Mexico second Three wild cards will mark the near fu- thinks Obama did the right thing and that everyone’s hate-object, and everyone sees among the most dangerous countries for ture. The first comes from elections. What Iran’s mullahs will not be the winners. some great conspiracy in whatever you do. journalists; only Iraq was more danger- if organized crime controls the political Why? Well, for starters, centuries of Once you pull out, and create the capacity ous. Three years ago, in the paper “Secu- system? In 2009, Mexico’s Secretariat of history teach us that Arabs and Persians to alter the balance, you will have a lot rity in the U.S.-Mexico Borderlands: The National Defense estimated the cartels do not play well together. Yes, Iraq has a more options and influence to affect out- Crisis, the Forces at Work and the Need for funded candidates in 219 municipalities Shiite Muslim majority and so does Iran. comes — rather than being pushed around Honest Assessment and Action,” the at- in 22 states, and the situation is likely But Iraqi Arab Shiites willingly fought for and attacked by everyone.” tacks on Mexico were detailed along with worse now. In many cases, the political eight years against Persian Iranian Shiites America today needs much more cost- the continued deterioration of security opposition has been assassinated, whether in the Iran-Iraq war. efficient ways to influence geopolitics in within Mexico. Two years ago, the Juarez candidates or office holders. For example, Moreover, I am certain that in recent Asia than keeping troops there indefinite- newspaper El Diario published an open between February 2010 and July 2011, at years America’s lingering troop presence ly. We need to better leverage the natural letter to the organized crime cartels from least nine mayors in Tamaulipas, Nuevo in Iraq actually gave Iran greater influ- competitions in this region to our ends. its editors stating, in part: Leon and Chihuahua (Mexican states bor- ence in Baghdad. The U.S., however well There is more than one way to play The “You are, at present, the de facto au- dering Texas) were attacked; six of them intentioned, became a lightening rod that Great Game, and we need to learn it. thorities in this city because the legal were killed. absorbed a lot of Iraqis’ frustrations with institutions have not been able to keep our The second comes from a change in their government’s underperformance, Friedman is a columnist for The New York colleagues from dying … strategy. What if the Mexican govern- and the U.S. “occupation” drew all atten- Times and a three-time Pulitzer Prize “We do not want more deaths. We ment finds it expedient to side with one tion away from Iran’s shenanigans inside winner. do not want more injuries or even more cartel over others? Some Mexican political intimidation. It is impossible to exercise leaders seem to be giving this possibil- our role in these conditions. Tell us, then, ity serious consideration, whether out of what do you expect of us as a medium?” allegiance or necessity. What if a similar Last year, one television company was strategy is pursued by the United States? subjected to three car bombs in the The third wild card comes from the northern state of Tamaulipas. While self- Internet, namely “Anonymous” and other censorship became the norm, journalists hacker groups. On Sept. 19, “Mexican continued to be brutally attacked, and Anonymous” hacked into Mexican gov- some sought asylum. ernment systems to expose indifference With the silencing of the press, Mexi- and corruption. “We demonstrate to the can citizens desperately spoke out di- government and drug trafficking groups rectly, through YouTube videos, blogs and that we will not allow more violence and other social media. But soon these may be insecurity and let them know Mexican silenced. Anonymous,” they explained. The fight On Sept. 24, a newspaper editor in against Mexican organized crime has not Nuevo Laredo was found beheaded. María included an Internet offensive. Perhaps Elizabeth Macías of Primera Hora had this is the first salvo. blogged about crime in the area under the The killings continue in Mexico, and name “La Nena de Nuevo Laredo,” and her Texans have witnessed the border war body was found with a note: “OK. Nuevo firsthand. Have you heard of the recent Laredo Live and the social networks, I am battles in Tampico? Most likely not. If La Nena de Laredo and I am here because there is silence, we should all be very, very of my reports and yours … for those who concerned. don’t want to believe it, this has happened to me because of my actions.” Schaan is the fellow in homeland security On Sept. 13, two individuals were and terrorism at Rice University’s James found disemboweled and hanging from A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, a Nuevo Laredo bridge with a message coordinator of the Texas Security Forum to “Blog del Narco,” a leading source of and a member of the advisory board of narco-terror reporting since the silenc- the Transborder International Police ing of the local press. The deaths of these Association. Cain’s faulty memory adds up to a weak defense

office door was open and that his secretary inappropriate comments in the presence KATHLEEN PARKER says the was seated just beyond the threshold. He of a female. To Cain’s generation (age 65), also remembered offering the woman a a casual remark about someone’s appear- Republican presidential candidate ride to a meeting, but said she wasn’t the ance is often viewed as a gesture of friend- only one he invited. He says he doesn’t liness. To someone younger, versed in the needs to bone up quickly on facts remember whether she accepted the ride. catechism of sexual harassment, it could “I don’t know what else I can say because be viewed as hostile or at least inappropri- about harassment allegations. there isn’t anything else,” he said. ate. When you’re running for president of As political history makes clear, where the United States, you’d better know the there is smoke, there is usually at least a difference. Today, Cain surely does. But ERMAN Cain searched his also notes that his success in the polls has match. In this case, as in many instances over a decades-long career as an execu- memory for details about made him a target. “Only when I came of alleged harassment, it also can be a mat- tive, Cain says he never gave his behavior what might have caused a inside the Beltway did this crap come up,” ter of perception. Nothing is more subjec- a second thought. He was just being Her- Hwoman in the 1990s to accuse he said in an interview. tive than sexual harassment. man — “upbeat and jovial.” him of sexual harassment. Cain has repeatedly denied ever sexu- What Cain remembers doing — stand- As to the details of the settlements, he No, he couldn’t remember her, not much ally harassing anyone. He also says he ing close to a woman, commenting on her pleads absolute ignorance. Even his cam- at all. Then again, there was one time, he doesn’t remember another woman who physical stature and comparing her to his paign attorney wasn’t able to get details told me, when he stood next to the woman Politico reports also filed a complaint and wife — probably crosses the line for some. from the restaurant association. It’s a per- and noted that she was about the same also got a settlement. When a reporter Wives and husbands are intimate together sonnel matter, they said. height as his wife. He showed me how showed him the other woman’s name, he and co-workers generally don’t want to be Cain is hardly the first candidate to close he was standing to her by asking a remembered her, but says he has no recol- considered in terms of a spouse. Physical suffer this kind of scrutiny. But a faulty female staffer to stand next to him. It was lection of a complaint. On this he doesn’t proximity is also fraught with potential memory is a weak defense when the na- close. Not touching, but close. budge and is convincing in his assertions. tension. Some women wouldn’t blink at tional media is chasing your history. As The allegations, which were brought Regarding the “false allegation” he does such a comment; others could feel it was soon as humanly possible, Cain needs to against Cain when he was head of the recall, the candidate insists nothing hap- the wrong remark in the wrong place. find out what was in the complaints and National Restaurant Association, were de- pened. At the time, when he was informed I asked Cain how he defines sexual settlements and get the facts on the table. termined at the time to be without merit. by the association’s attorney, he couldn’t harassment and he listed offenses that If he doesn’t, someone else will. Even so, the woman received a settlement place the woman. Her name didn’t ring would resonate with most Americans: from the association, which Cain recog- a bell. But when pressed, small details forcing a female to do something against Parker’s email address is kathleenparker@ nizes raises skepticism about events. He began to emerge. He remembered that his her will; inappropriate touching; making washpost.com.