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Fertility Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa. Dhs Comparative Reports 18 DHS COMPARATIVE REPORTS 18 FERTILITY CHANGES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FERTILITY CHANGES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DHS COMPARATIVE REPORTS 18 SEPTEMBER 2008 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by M. Michel Garenne. 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Calverton, Maryland, USA September 2008 Author address: M. Michel Garenne, Institut Pasteur, Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes, 25 rue du Docteur Roux, 75724 Paris Cedex 15, France. Email: [email protected]. Disclaimer: The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development, the United States Government, Macro International Inc., or the institutions with which the author is affiliated. This publication was made possible through support provided by the United States Agency for International Development under Contract No. GPO-C-00-03-00002-00. Recommended citation: Garenne, M. Michel. 2008. Fertility Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa. DHS Comparative Reports No. 18. Calverton, Maryland, USA: Macro International Inc. Contents Tables and Figures ........................................................................................................................................ v Preface ........................................................................................................................................................ vii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................................ ix Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... xi 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Data and Methods ............................................................................................................................ 3 2.1 Fertility Data ....................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Methods for Reconstructing Fertility Trends ...................................................................... 3 2.3 Trends in Proximate Determinates ...................................................................................... 6 2.4 Trends in Socioeconomic Correlates .................................................................................. 7 3 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Cohort Fertility ................................................................................................................. 11 3.2 Period Fertility .................................................................................................................. 18 3.3 Urban-rural Divide ............................................................................................................ 24 3.4 Date of Onset and Speed of Fertility Transition ............................................................... 25 3.5 Recent Periods of Fertility Stall ........................................................................................ 26 3.6 Premature Fertility ............................................................................................................ 27 4 Discussion ...................................................................................................................................... 29 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................................. 33 Appendix B ................................................................................................................................................. 35 Appendix C ............................................................................................................................................... 105 References ................................................................................................................................................. 109 iii Tables and Figures Table 3.1 Net effect of proximate determinants of cohort fertility in linear regressions, sub-Saharan Africa, 1930 – 1970 cohorts ................................................................. 16 Table 3.2 Correlation between proximate determinants and socioeconomic correlates of cohort fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1930 – 1970 .......................... 17 Table 3.3 Net effect of socioeconomic correlates of cohort fertility in linear regressions, 31 sub Saharan African countries, 1930 – 1970 .................................... 17 Table 3.4 Net effects of proximate determinants on period fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1950 – 2000 ................................................................................. 20 Table 3.5 Correlation coefficients between socioeconomic variables, proximate determinants, and period fertility rates, 31 sub-Saharan countries, 1950 – 2000 ........................................................................................................................... 23 Table 3.6 Net effects of socioeconomic correlates on period fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1950 – 2000 ................................................................................. 24 Table 3.7 Net effect of changes in proximate determinants and socioeconomic correlates on changes in period fertility levels, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1977 – 1999 .............................................................................................. 24 Table 3.8 Fertility stall, selected sub-Saharan African countries, 1987 – 2005 ........................ 27 Figure 2.1 Correspondence between cohort and period fertility estimates over time .................. 5 Figure 3.1 Reconstructed trends in cohort fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1930-1970 ................................................................................................................. 11 Figure 3.2 Reconstructed trends in cohort estimates of proximate determinants of fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1930-1980 ............................................ 14 Figure 3.3 Reconstructed trends in period fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1950-2000 ................................................................................................................. 19 Figure 3.4 Reconstructed trends in period estimates of proximate determinants of fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1950-2000 ............................................ 20 Figure 3.5 Reconstructed trends in period estimates of socioeconomic correlates of fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1950-2000 ............................................ 22 Figure 3.6 Reconstructed trends in period fertility, by urban versus rural residence, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1950-2000 .......................................................... 25 Figure 3.7 Distribution of year of onset of the fertility transition in urban and rural areas, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1950-2000 ................................................ 26 Figure 3.8 Trends in premarital fertility, 31 sub-Saharan African countries, 1950-2000 .......... 28 v Preface One of the most significant contributions of the MEASURE DHS program is the creation of an internationally comparable body of data on the demographic and health characteristics of populations in developing countries. The DHS Comparative Reports series examines these data across countries in a comparative framework. The DHS Analytical Studies series focuses on specific topics. The principal objectives of both series are to provide information for policy formulation at the international level and to examine individual country results in an international context. Whereas Comparative Reports are primarily descriptive, Analytical Studies have a more analytical approach. The Comparative Reports series covers a variable number of countries, depending on the avail- ability of data sets. Where possible, data from previous DHS surveys are used to evaluate trends over time. Each report provides detailed tables and graphs organized by region. Survey-related issues such as questionnaire comparability, survey procedures, data quality, and methodological
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