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A Plan for the Next Phase in Weather Modification Science and Technology Development

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A Plan for the Next Phase in Weather Modification Science and Technology Development WMA Annual Meeting, San Diego, Ca. 2005; 16th Weather Modification Conf. 1.1 A Plan for the next phase in Weather Modification Science and Technology Development T.P. DeFelice Introduction hazardous weather (e.g., freezing rain, severe weather), fire, and other Weather modification science and environmental problems (related to toxic technology development plans have been wastes, ozone hole, ‘acid rain’, biological or constructed (e.g. Schaefer, 1969, 1976; chemical warfare, CDC 2000, for example). Juisto, 1974). Those plans have lead to Technological and scientific advances have modern weather modification technologies, recently yielded, new seeding material, which have been helping the community at polarimetric radar, Doppler radar and large meet water resource requirements for software, and enhanced computational over 50 years. Present-day cloud seeding resources (e.g. Orville et al., 2000; NRC, technologies and the recognition of treatable 2003). Hence, an impetus for developing clouds are scientifically based. The scientific systems that monitor and manage community acknowledges that cloud seeding atmospheric events. The atmospheric events yields a 10% increase in the amount of are treatable using proven and some new precipitation (compared with normal modern weather modification technologies, precipitation) that reaches the ground when and they include hurricanes, tornadoes, and the seeding is prudently conducted under pollutant transport. Consequently, the next favorable atmospheric conditions (e.g. phase in weather modification science and Weather Modification Association, 2005; technology development is to outline a high- American Meteorological Society, 1998; level national program plan for developing Elliott et al., 1995; Weather Modification modern weather modification science and Association, 1993; World Meteorological technologies that takes advantage of lessons Organization, 1992). Apparently, some learned, recent science and technological stakeholders benefit greatly from an order of advances for more effectively benefiting magnitude less increase in the amount of society. rainfall (compared with normal rainfall). The ‘next phase’ in weather Weather modification technologies modification science and technology may be affectively applied to facilitate the development will encompass a water and energy cycles, which are key to comprehensive agenda of fundamental and dealing with many present and potential applied research & development efforts future scientific, environmental, and directed toward optimizing existing socioeconomic issues. Contemporary technologies used to manage ‘treatable’ socioeconomic problems mostly focus on atmospheric processes and conditions, and drought. For example, there is a clear and to allow the development of relevant pressing need for additional clean water, innovative technologies. It will require a since it is predicted that more than 40% of permanent, national program that the world’s population will live in water- administers the resources and the activities stressed areas by the decade of the 2020s. to develop the operational application of There is also steadily increasing property atmospheric modification (weather damage and human suffering caused by modification) technologies, which help 1 WMA Annual Meeting, San Diego, Ca. 2005; 16th Weather Modification Conf. 1.1 provide sustainable water supplies and especially research using ground-, air-, and mitigate the excessive effects from satellite-based remote sensing devices atmospheric hazards (frozen rain, (radars including Doppler, lidars, hurricanes, tornadoes, other). This includes radiometers, and others). The improving the understanding of the relevant aforementioned need is rather ominous, but processes and the evaluation methods for necessary and attainable in time. Initial operational activities as suggested by efforts to develop an understanding of how Silverman (2001a), making use of present-day cloud seeding technologies can cooperative multi-disciplinary research and be applied and modified to lessen the development arrangements, and a well- socioeconomic impacts of hazardous designed outreach activity. weather events and materials might begin with the information gained from simulating Discussion: these systems, then with these models modify them to include the results from Lessons learned activities, as well as applying various seeding technologies. The recent science and technological advances modeling of seeding agent tracer study have identified many focal areas for initial results would greatly improve seeding agent efforts undertaken during the next phase in placement within cloud systems, and they weather modification science and technology could form the basis for Homeland Security development. needs (J. Golden, NOAA, FSL, Boulder There is a need to develop the ability Co., 2004, personal communication). to better simulate, and thereby, identify and The state-of-the-art cloud seeding monitor atmospheric events, airborne technologies might be ready for application pollutants, and select inadvertent weather toward mitigating the effects of freezing rain modification signatures. This ability events. The knowledge base is not large combined with improved seeding enough to reliably support tornado ‘zapping’ technologies will maximize the benefit and or hurricane ‘snuffing’ efforts. It may one success of this program since they contribute day support these efforts after appropriately to the resolution of water-related issues funded and directed cooperative research (especially water scarcity). These campaigns have been completed. The improvements, when combined with existing cloud seeding technologies are improved scientific understanding, provide a operationally used to reduce hailstone size, more useful tool for determining when and and may possibly be used to reduce the where the atmosphere or cloud can most intensity of rotational hurricane winds. The likely benefit from implementing the reductions in hurricane rotational wind improved or new technologies. speeds following cloud seeding (“Esther” in 1961, “Beulah” in 1963, and 30% for Developing improved dispersion “Debbie” in 1969), were not statistically techniques and higher yield cloud seeding distinguishable from the range of natural agents are needed for obvious reasons. The variability, and is not yet scientifically development of technologies to ‘treat’ accepted. Consequently, modeling studies hazardous weather systems (e.g. freezing should dominate these efforts, initially. rain, hail formation, tornadoes, hurricanes) are more critically needed, and will benefit Simulation and modeling studies will from past and ongoing research results, require verification. This should be accomplished 2 WMA Annual Meeting, San Diego, Ca. 2005; 16th Weather Modification Conf. 1.1 through carefully designed cooperative efforts. high-level infrastructure to address the Cloud seeding program evaluations also need to recommendations from the parent science be improved. Evaluations require revisiting community (Table 1). Table 1 summarizes whether measuring devices used for evaluations how the plan objectives align with are primary standards, if not, does one exist, if so recommendations from the National is there a better device? For example, is the Research Council (NRC). This plan will standard precipitation gauge truly a primary benefit from project management process standard for precipitation amount measurements? improvement exercises currently underway That is, does it represent the natural spatial and by the author. temporal precipitation amount field (e.g. DeFelice, 1998) under all conditions, or better than It is important to make clear that the alternative measuring devices? The answer is implementation of this plan calls for tackling crucial to evaluating the success of precipitation tasks, issues within components (i), (ii), and augmentation projects, for example. If not, could (iii) in a multi-disciplinary, cross-component the Z(reflectivity) - L(precipitation water content) environment that exists throughout the relationship be used to estimate rainfall amount? entire life cycle of the plan. This is The Z-L would not require estimates of accomplished by hydrometeor terminal velocity, and L can be (i) specifying well-defined plan verified using a dual wavelength microwave member roles and responsibilities radiometer. at all levels within the plan at the Inadvertant modification studies plan’s kickoff meeting. need to be increased, and not solely from a (ii) Developing carefully designed climate change point-of-view. For example, cooperative research and a land cover change from agricultural to development efforts whose urban over a modest area can introduce a purpose is to enhance the climatic forcing similar in magnitude and understanding of the inherent direction to that from carbon dioxide (R. multi-disciplinary processes for Pielke Sr., 2001, personal communication). the good of the operational WMA Here initial efforts should at least focus on community. This has economic strategies for (a) minimizing the effect from benefits to the program as well. inadvertent modifications to the atmosphere, and (b) neutralizing airborne pollutants Furthermore, the plan must have within cloud systems or redirecting their air somebody, i.e., functional area lead, trajectories to settle on ‘safe surfaces’. chartered to ensure that matured plan technologies are transferred to stakeholders The plan, derived from past lessons and end users in a timely fashion. learned,
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