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7.1 the WEATHER DAMAGE MODIFICATION PROGRAM Steven M. Hunter *, Jon Medina and David A. Matthews U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

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7.1 the WEATHER DAMAGE MODIFICATION PROGRAM Steven M. Hunter *, Jon Medina and David A. Matthews U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 7.1 THE WEATHER DAMAGE MODIFICATION PROGRAM Steven M. Hunter *, Jon Medina and David A. Matthews U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO 1. INTRODUCTION national research program. Although the WDMP is not presently funded, the program may serve The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation as a foundation for such a research program (Reclamation) has been engaged in weather with Federal government support. Also, modification research since the 1960s, according to the NAS report, such research although this research declined significantly should be pursued because weather in the late 1980s through 1990s. In Federal modification has the potential for relieving water Fiscal Year (FY) 2002, however, Congress resource stresses. Reclamation is the major authorized funding of the Weather Damage wholesale supplier of water in the U.S. and Modification Program (WDMP) and specified operates in 17 western states, where such that it be administered by Reclamation. The stresses are the most severe, owing in part to a primary goal of the program is to improve multi-year drought and rapid population growth. and evaluate physical mechanisms to limit As a result, Reclamation is being forced to make damage from weather phenomena such as increasingly difficult choices regarding water drought and hail, and to enhance water allocation. supplies through regional weather The WDMP represents the first federally modification research programs and transfer supported attempt in the 21st century to validated technologies for implementation investigate some of the major lingering scientific within operational programs. The WDMP questions about the efficacy of weather program received $1.2M for field research in modification. Answers to these questions are FY 2002 and 0.8M in FY 2003, but was not crucial prerequisites to widespread use of funded in FY 2004 and beyond. These weather modification to alleviate the burgeoning monies have supported research in seven water supply crisis in the West. states: Colorado, Texas (in cooperation with New Mexico and Oklahoma), Nevada, Utah, 2. RESEARCH BACKGROUND AND and North Dakota. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECTS The WDMP focused on three intermediate targets associated with the 2.1 Winter Orographic Seeding overall goal: rainfall augmentation, snowfall augmentation, and hail suppression. Melt and runoff from snowpack contributes Participating states were expected to match most of the reservoir storage in large portions of federal funding and “piggyback” their the Western U.S., so snowpack augmentation is research on existing operational weather an attractive target in the region. Accordingly, modification projects. This paper operational cloud seeding to augment snowpack summarizes the science questions pursued, in the mountains has a long history in several research approaches, and current status of western states. Prior studies suggest that each state project.1 seeding of supercooled orographic clouds has A recent report on weather modification worked, yielding seasonal precipitation research (NAS 2003) cites advances in increases on the order of 10% (AMS, 1998). observational, computational, and statistical More research and documentation is needed to technologies over the last few decades that buttress these findings, however. could be applied to weather modification. Winter orographic seeding has been Based partly on these advances, the report dominated by the use of silver iodide (AgI), recommends initiation of a sustained delivered from ground-based generators or aircraft. The last federally-assisted cloud * seeding project was a winter experiment in Utah Corresponding author address: Steven M. during the 1990s (Super 1999). There are a Hunter, Bureau of Reclamation D-8510, P.O. number of other seeding technologies that have Box 25007, Denver, CO, 80225-0007; e-mail: been put forward but not tested extensively. [email protected] New chemical compositions, such as silver chloride-iodide complexes, may act more The states conducting WDMP research are efficiently to produce ice particles at shown in Fig. 1. Three projects, in Nevada, temperatures warmer than -5°C, where AgI Utah and Colorado, are involved in cool-season, is ineffective. Similar warm temperature orographic seeding. The other two projects, one results may be achieved by cost-effective in North Dakota and the other in Oklahoma, liquid propane generators (Medina 2000). Texas and New Mexico, seed convective clouds The Utah WDMP experiment operated such during the warm season. Specifically, individual generators. project principal goals are as follows: The use of tracer chemicals with the • Nevada – (1) Remotely sense seeding materials affords a method to verify supercooled cloud water to quantify the targeting of those materials. Such cloud seeding potential in a selected chemicals were employed in the Nevada watershed; (2) Apply mesoscale WDMP experiment, which even attempted to atmospheric and dispersion distinguish ground-based and aircraft modeling to evaluate seeding seeding signatures. This experiment also effectiveness under a variety of included a Lagrangian particle dispersion storm conditions; (3) Evaluate model and windflow from the MM5 cloud seeding effectiveness through model to further characterize seeding plume physical and chemical analyses of trajectories (Koracin et al. 1998). The snow packs; (4) Use hydrologic Colorado experiment also used a modeling to estimate impacts of Lagrangian transport model (Uliasz 1994) seeding-induced increases in snow coupled with the RAMS cloud model (Cotton packs on streamflow; (5) et al. 1994) to evaluate targeting of seeding Characterize natural and seeded material. cloud regions with in situ aircraft microphysical measurements. 2.2 Convective Seeding • Utah – (1) Conduct randomized cloud seeding on the Wasatch Plateau Research into warm-season seeding of using propane dispensers to convective clouds in the Western U.S. was develop embryonic ice particles; (2) conducted mostly in the late 1960s through Explore impacts on precipitation by early 1980s, notably through projects such the cloud seeding. as the National Hail Research Experiment • Colorado – (1) Configure the Colorado (NHRE) and the High Plains Experiment State University cloud model (HIPLEX; Cooper and Lawson 1984). (RAMS) and conduct modeling over These experiments had mixed results for operational cloud seeding areas; (2) hail suppression and rainfall augmentation, Implement algorithms simulating respectively. Rosenfeld and Woodley cloud seeding generators as (1989; 1993) reported increases in radar- sources of ice nuclei, (3) Simulate estimated rainfall with AgI seeding in West Lagrangian transport of seeding Texas during the 1980s. Tracer studies materials under different weather were conducted in North Dakota in 1989 conditions; (4) Use RAMS to (Boe et al. 1992). develop forecasts for seeded and More recently, positive findings nonseeded days; (5) Evaluate regarding hygroscopic seeding have been model predictions of precipitation. reported in several experiments, e.g., in • North Dakota – (1) Radar analysis of South Africa (Mather et al. 1997), Thailand first echo detection; (2) Analysis of (Silverman and Sukarnjanaset 2000), long-term cooperative observer Mexico (Bruintjes et al. 2001; Fowler et al. network rainfall data; (3) Explore 2001), and India (Murty et al. 2000). Yin et climatic rain gauge data for al. (2000; 2001) have conducted modeling evidence of North Dakota Cloud studies of hygroscopic seeding that offer Modification Project seeding effects plausible arguments for why such seeding on rainfall in western North Dakota; may lead to rain increases. (4) Investigate CCN characteristics in western North Dakota; (5) Three- 2.3 Individual Project Goals dimensional modeling of North Dakota clouds using a new drought has had far-reaching effects, including microphysical parameterization some of the worst forest fire seasons ever scheme, with explicit treatment recorded. In response, bills were introduced in of atmospheric aerosols and Congress to establish a National Drought hygroscopic seeding effects Preparedness Act of 2003 and a National • Texas/Oklahoma/New Mexico – (1) Drought Council within the Department of Statistical analysis of historical Agriculture (Western Governors Association precipitation events in the 2004). The U.S. Department of the Interior Oklahoma Mesonet; (2) Profile recently started a “Water 2025” initiative (DOI, CCN by instrumented aircraft; 2003). This initiative is intended to focus (3) Study seeding influences on attention on increasing pressures on already- cloud evolution with radar data; stressed water supplies by the West’s explosive (4) Conduct airborne population growth, droughts, agriculture, experimental seeding with recreation, and environmental concerns. hygroscopic materials (milled WDMP research will continue in 2005 to salts) and AgI; (5) Track conclusion. No new funding has been received, seeding plumes with a tracer however. The WDMP is the first federally- gas. funded weather modification research field program in the 21st century. The program has demonstrated that the U.S. government can partner effectively with states and leverage scarce funds to carry out needed research, using resources already in place for operational weather modification projects. The program can serve as a model for future governmental cooperation and national initiatives such as the one proposed in the recent NAS report (section 1). REFERENCES American Meteorological Society (AMS), 1998: Policy Statement: Planned and Inadvertent
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